Scotland’s Nature on Red Alert Climate change impacts on biodiversity 4 Summary 24 Marine habitats 36 Moorland 37 Habitat changes due to Contents 7 Introduction 25 Habitat changes due to climate change climate change 8 Climate change and biodiversity 25 Temperature 38 Impacts on biodiversity 10 Vulnerability of Scotland’s 25 Sea level 38 Vegetation composition biodiversity to climate change 25 Acidification 39 Birds 11 Climate change feedback 26 Have physical changes already 39 Invertebrates 12 Scotland’s changing climate been documented? 40 Woodlands and forests 26 Temperature 14 Climate changes to date 41 Habitat changes due to 26 Acidification climate change 15 Climate change pathways 26 Sea level 42 Impacts on biodiversity 15 Case studies 26 Impacts on biodiversity 42 Slow movers 16 Freshwater habitats 26 Whales, dolphins 43 Birds 17 Habitat changes due to and porpoises 44 Plants climate change 28 Sea birds 44 Implications for tree planting 17 Temperature 28 Molluscs 45 Implications for woodland expansion 18 River levels 28 Machair 46 Other risks from climate change 18 Have physical changes already 29 Blue carbon been documented? 47 Future Outlook 30 Mountain habitats 18 River temperature 31 Habitat changes due to 18 Precipitation climate change 19 Impacts on biodiversity 31 Snow cover 19 Atlantic salmon, trout 32 Have physical changes already and Arctic charr been documented? 20 Freshwater pearl mussel 32 Snow cover 23 Birds 33 Impacts on biodiversity 23 Invertebrates 33 Loss of habitat 35 Community changes 4 | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ON RED ALERT SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENT LINK AND WWF SCOTLAND | 5

Summary Photo Credit: Helen Todd Photo

Climate change is recognised by Species that could be affected in Scotland Even though the Paris Agreement calls More needs to be done to combat this, as o many as the most serious threat include some of our most well-known for limiting temperature increase to 1.5 C, existing ambitions are not addressing the and iconic wildlife, ranging from Atlantic the current commitments submitted by impact of climate change on Scotland’s facing life on the planet today. salmon to capercaillie to the freshwater governments as part of the Paris Agreement biodiversity. A net zero target by 2050 pearl mussel. We have species such as the are estimated to result in a median increase at the earliest is critical to safeguard our Governments have responded to that Arctic charr which are at their southern limit in global temperature of 2.6 – 3.1oC by 2100. biodiversity. This needs to be accompanied threat by agreeing to long-term goals in Scotland and which may not be able to Temperature rise to this extent will cause by robust interim targets for 2030 to of keeping global temperature rise this survive rising temperatures. Other species, catastrophic damage to our biodiversity. avoid a situation where temperatures century, below 2ºC and to pursue efforts such as the kittiwake and golden plover, peak and then drop, as this would have to limit the temperature increase to Scotland’s biodiversity is already may lose their main food sources. Plant already had devastating and possibly 1.5ºC. To achieve that goal will require experiencing a changed climate, affecting communities will change as populations irreversible effects for our biodiversity. unprecedented levels of action from species abundance, distribution and of upland and alpine specialists like Alpine governments, businesses and individuals. impacting on species’ ability to adapt. The Our climate policies should also ensure lady’s mantle are reduced and lowland State of Nature 2016 report indicates that that our ecosystems are resilient enough This report sets out what has already generalist species increase. Our seas will almost one in ten Scottish species are at to continue to absorb greenhouse gases. happened to both the global and Scottish also be affected, with cold water species like risk of extinction. The long-term trends A combined approach is needed to make climate and how it might change in the white-beaked dolphin at risk of being (around 1970-2013) across three taxonomic sure we are using all the tools in our toolbox the future. It looks at the impacts of lost from our waters. Increasing acidification groups (vascular plants, butterflies, birds) to combat climate change. Scotland has that change on Scottish biodiversity of the oceans may also affect not just our indicate that nearly 54% of vascular plant the potential to be a world leader in the and brings together existing evidence wildlife, but our shellfish industries. And species (such as juniper) have shown fight against climate change – so that on five habitats, their species, and the our world-renowned salmon rivers may decline, 39% of butterfly species have future generations may continue to enjoy, future impacts of climate change. lose more fish as water temperatures shown decline, and 44% of bird species value and benefit from our biodiversity. rise and summer water levels decline. Scotland’s landscapes and wildlife are (upland species such as dotterel and curlew, diverse and beautiful. Our habitats and The ecosystem services on which society seabirds such as puffins and kittiwakes) species are of value not just in their depends will also be affected. If our have declined. Existing ambitions will own right, but also for the ecosystem peatlands dry out, they can no longer therefore not curtail the impact of climate services they support and on which store as much carbon for us and our rivers change on biodiversity in Scotland. we all depend. And yet much of this may no longer protect us from flooding if biodiversity is seriously threatened by rainfall levels rise. Over time, there is also the challenge of climate change. the potential for positive feedback within the carbon cycle to lead to an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and a worsening of the effects of climate change. Photo Credit: Lister Cumming 6 facing theworld today most seriousthreat acknowledged asthe Climate changeis Introduction | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ONREDALERT 1 . increase to 1.5 pursue efforts to limitthetemperature 2052 by 1.5ºC,sometimebetween 2030and temperatures can beexpected to increase industrial levels. At thisrate, the globalmean risen by approximately 1 Global meantemperatures have already most seriousthreatfacing theworld today. Climate changeisacknowledged asthe 8% of plantsand4%of vertebrates with numbersdecliningto 6%of insects, At 1.5°C,theimpactsaffect fewer species, available) have declinedby 60%since 1970 across theglobe(for whichdataare estimates thatpopulationsof allvertebrates an alarmingrate. WWF’sLivingPlanetIndex Globally, biodiversity isalreadydecliningat range (basedon105,000studiedspecies to loseover halfof theircurrentclimatic plants and8%of vertebrates areprojected mean temperature, 18%of insects,16%of locally. Withanincreaseof 2°Cinglobal impact biodiversity, bothgloballyand A changingclimate hasthepotential to require substantialactionfromallcountries. those services forthose services generations future also potentially affect theavailability of negative impactsonourbiodiversity will nutrient cycling andpollination. Any we dependonashumans,such as in many of theecosystem that services Biodiversity alsohasakey roleto play rise this century torise thiscentury well below 2 Agreement) to keep aglobaltemperature long-term goal(often referred to astheParis Change Conference, delegates agreedto a Nature Reportfor Scotland from thisdeterioration. The State of Scotland’s biodiversity isnotexempt butterfly specieshave alreadydeclined. plant species and over athirdof our indicate thatmorethanhalfof our 2 . At the2015United NationsClimate o C 3 . Achieving thatgoalwill o C above pre- 6 findings o C andto 2 . 5 . 2 SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENTLINKANDWWFSCOTLAND | ). 4 . processes impacts fromchangesinecological physical conditions, aswell asindirect risk of directimpactsfromthechanging invasive species,pests anddiseases may bechallengedby thespreadof new will beatriskof extinction, whilstothers to respondto achangingclimate. species withinthem,can beexpected at how key Scottish habitats,and the Case studiesareprovided whichlook with increasedglobaltemperature rise. demonstrates how thosethreatsincrease It highlightstheextent of thethreatsand climate changeonScotland’s biodiversity. This reportlooks atthepotential impactsof climate changeimpactsinthefuture. will directlyinfluence themagnitude of and thetimescale for achieving them governments, theextent of thenew targets In combination withactionsfromother requirements of theParisAgreement. to alignScotland’s ambitionswiththe Climate ChangeBillwithnew targets, Government hasnow introduced asecond emissions by 80%by 2050.The Scottish emissions, includingatargetto reduce reduction targetsfor greenhouse gas 2009. At thetime,thissetworld-leading the Climate Change(Scotland) Act in the Scottish Government introduced change asaglobalandlocal threat, Recognising theimportance of climate change as particularlyvulnerable to climate and oakwoodlands have beenidentified our peatlands,uplands,coastal machair of ourmosticonic habitats,including threat to Scotland’s biodiversity. Some A changingclimate willbringyet another 7 . Habitatsandspecieswillbeat 8 . SomespeciesinScotland 9 . 7 8 during theseperiods that multiplespeciesextinctions occurred past, andstudiesof thefossil record show Changes to climate have taken place inthe of 2 of extinction underaglobaltemperature rise that 5.2%,or1in20species,could face rates climate underfuture changesuggests of scientificresearchinto likely extinction species andrange expansion for others. change, causing range lossfor some space willmove inresponseto climate population can bemaintained.That climate climatic conditions aresuitableanda space orrange –anareawherethe All specieshave anidentifiableclimate the interactions between different species. abundance anddistribution,aswell asin may leadto substantialchanges intheir threatened withextinction, climate change highlighted thateven for speciesnotdirectly in thesecond halfof the21 on terrestrial andfreshwater ecosystems climate changeto bea“powerful stressor Change (IPCC) hasstated thatitexpects The Intergovernmental PanelonClimate major threatto biodiversity onaglobalscale. Climate changehasbeenidentifiedasa and biodiversity Climate change | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ONREDALERT especially underhigh-warming scenarios below acertain threshold) take place ifaspecies’available range fell o C (extinction was assumedlikely to 10 . Arecent synthesis 11 st . This studyalso century, century, 10 ”. found beneathlate-lying snow beds. mountain plants,like thesmallmosses ptarmigan, aswell assomeof ourspecialist birds, suchasthesnow buntingandthe could includesomeof ourmountain expansion likely to beatriskof range lossthanrange and wetter climaticconditions were more associated withuplandhabitats,andcooler by fragmented habitat.Those species that thisdispersalcould belimited through Britain,althoughithighlights species may beableto expand theirrange The samereview alsofound thatmany alpine andmontaneenvironments species thatareassociated witharctic, However thereislikely to beadeclinein species presentinScotland may increase. to climate change,theoverall numberof theirrangesas speciesshift inresponse habitats predominate. This meansthat cooler, wetter conditions andupland many speciesfound inScotland, where a low emissionsclimate changescenario species, were athighriskof range lossunder and animalspeciesfound that21%,or640 A UKreview whichassessedover 3000plant 12 . Inevitably, thiswillinclude 13 . That 12 . SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENTLINKANDWWFSCOTLAND | 9

Photo Credit: Danny Carden 10 between the1940sand1980s of Scotland’s blanket peatbogwas lost pressure inScotland. Forexample, 44% biodiversity isalreadyundersignificant Index value as81.3%–suggestingthat calculated Scotland’s Biodiversity Intactness presents anatural barrierto movement need to move north,astheArcticOcean across northernEuropefor speciesthat is, quite literally, nowhere to go.This applies north to track suitableclimate space, there For terrestrial speciesthatneedto move response to changedclimaticconditions. the extent to whichspecies can move in the impactsof climate changeasitlimits the Europeancontinent willexacerbate Scotland’s positionatthewestern edge of to climate change Scotland’s biodiversity Vulnerability of | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ONREDALERT society’s needs point atwhichthey can reliablymeet ecosystems may have fallen below the Index values below 90% indicate that loss of naturedueto humanactivities. (BII) isoneway to assesstheextent of the species and thespreadof invasive non-native such asover-grazing, habitatfragmentation suffering fromtheimpactof pressures much of Scotland’s biodiversity isalready pressure onScotland’s biodiversity. But Climate changewillplace additional degraded insomeway 80% of peatlandsarenow 6 . The Biodiversity IntactnessIndex 15 . The State of Naturereport 6 16 . . 14 . 6

unsatisfactory condition for biodiversity and over halfof thosewoodlands arein only covers 4%of Scotland’s landarea 37% respectively and mixed woodland fell by 23%and In thesametime,areasof broadleaved areas arewithin1kmof aforest edge that 70%of theworld’s remainingforest areas. Arecent scientificreview paper found the lossof speciesfromcertain geographical space, leadingto localised extinctions and are unableto respondto climate shifting could resultinisolated populationswhich their abilityto move acrosslandscapes. This existing habitatfragmentation may impair to reflect changedclimatic conditions, For speciesthatneedto alter theirrange alterations inspecies compositions communities, resultinginsignificant change have allaffected uplandgrassland air pollution,over-grazing andclimate composition of ecosystems. For example, climate changeto resultinchangesthe Other pressuresmay combine with decrease inbiodiversity of between 13–75%. they found thatfragmentation can leadto a habitat typesandondifferent continents, fragmentation impactsacrossavariety of land). Whentheresearcherslooked at spread acrossintensively farmed arable plantmay notbeabletodog’s mercury example, woodland speciessuchasthe suitable for thespeciesto move across(for migration, iftheadjacent landuseisnot edge areascan cause abarrierto species 6 . Native woodland now 19 . 18 . These 17 . initially, enablingitto store morecarbon vegetation to become moreproductive levels rise, thereispotential for natural As globaltemperatures andcarbon dioxide feeding itdown into rootsandthesoil it into thewoody stems of plantsand the potential to absorbcarbon, by locking carbon dioxide levels. Natural vegetation has prevents itcontributing to atmospheric sequestering orstorage of carbon, which in relationto climate changeisthe human societies.Akey ecosystem service which we relyonfor of thefunctioning Biodiversity supportsecosystem services, Climate changefeedback in carbon storage in vegetation productionandadecrease disease andfloods)leading to areduction disruption (throughfor example, drought, to peakaround2030, withecosystem However, thisproductivityisexpected emitter by theendof the21 result invegetation becoming anetcarbon 21 . Ultimately thismay st century. 20 . 21 SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENTLINKANDWWFSCOTLAND | . from Chinato theatmosphere induced annualgreenhousegasemissions is comparable to adding thehuman- in thenorthernhemisphereeachyear Thus far, thereductioninstorage ability worsening of theeffects of climate change. rise inatmosphericcarbon dioxide anda This would inevitably leadto amorerapid the ways inwhichecosystems function. climate changeasa resultof disruptionto positive feedback to exacerbate further demonstrates thepotential for catastrophic growing) decreasingslightlysince 2006 over thesummer(whenvegetation is carbon stored eachyear by thebiosphere northern hemisphere,withtheamountof may have alreadybeenreachedinthe Recent evidence suggeststhatthispeak 20 . This 20 . 11

Photo Credit: Adobe Stock 12 | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ON RED ALERT SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENT LINK AND WWF SCOTLAND | 13

Scotland’s changing climate North + NORTHERN SCOTLAND 26mm Northern Scotland is not expected to see quite such high The UK Climate Projections were updated in summer temperatures with a maximum increase of 3.9oC 22 November 2018 and have a number of revisions projected. Winter precipitation could increase by up to compared to the 200923 projections that have 26mm in all emissions scenarios, whilst projections for summer precipitation are similar to the rest of Scotland. informed most climate change research to date. + At the time of writing, the full dataset As the updated 2018 projections are 21mm was unavailable, but the main headline unavailable at a regional scale at the time impacts can be derived from the published of writing, the 2009 projection data has data. The new data come from revised been used to provide an overview of the East climate models and enhanced cross- potential changes within Scotland by 2050. + EASTERN SCOTLAND referencing with observations of climate. The 2018 projections have broadly similar 31mm Under low and medium median predicted changes compared to The 2018 projections use different scenarios emissions scenarios, 2009 projections, so inclusion of these to the 2009 projections, based on future an increase in winter predictions remains relevant. However, West greenhouse gases called the representative temperature is expected the 2018 projections do show an increase WESTERN SCOTLAND concentration pathways (RCPs) covering of between 0.6 – 3.1oC. in the possible ranges, so it is possible Changes in Western a more up-to-date range of assumptions An increase in mean that the climate may be significantly Scotland are like around future population, economic summer temperature more hostile than was previously Eastern Scotland, development and include the possibility of between 1 – 4.5oC is thought by the end of the 21st century. but mean winter of mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions predicted, raising the temperatures could because of international targets24. It is possibility of significantly rise by up to 3.3oC, important to note that the low emission hotter summers. whilst precipitation scenario (RCP 2.6) is a derived dataset, Meanwhile, under a high could increase by meaning that there is greater uncertainty emissions scenario, winter 31mm under all than for the high emission scenario precipitation could rise emissions scenarios. (RCP 8.5) as there may be interactions by up to 21mm, whilst between different climate factors for summer precipitation is which we cannot currently account. most likely to decrease Lowlands by up to 28mm. For most of lowland UK, heavy rain days (days with rainfall greater than 25mm) are expected to increase by a factor of between 2 and 3.5 in winter, and 1 to 2 in summer by the 2080s under the medium emissions scenario. This will be likely to lead to more flooding and river spate events. Photo Credit: Adobe Stock 14 in Eastern andWestern Scotland andby justunder1 suggesting an increasedlikelihood of floodsandspate events. (greater than10mminaday) hadincreased by a total of 8.3days, cover inScotland haddecreasedby 32.1%. Days of heavy rain As would beexpected fromwarmer temperatures, days of snow there was nocleartrendinsummer precipitationchanges. for Scotland, suggesting asignificantly wetter climate. However, for winter inScotland, anda21.1%intheannualprecipitationtotal They alsofound a58.3% increaseinthemeanprecipitationtotal they found thatannualaverage temperatures hadincreasedby justover 1 (SNIFFER) looked atclimate trends inScotland In 2014,Scotland andNorthernIrelandForumfor International Research many regions,includingtwo to threetimeshigherintheArctic greater thantheglobalannualaverage isbeingexperienced in over the 1850–1900period.The reportalsohighlightsthatwarming (calculated asbetween 0.75°Cand0.99°C)higherthantheaverage mean surface temperature for thedecade 2006–2015was 0.87°C a long-term warming trendsince pre-industrialtimes.Global The IPCC’s mostrecent reportstates thattheworld hasexperienced significant evidence thatourclimate ischanging. climate. Fromtheglobalto thelocal scale, thereis Scotland’s biodiversity isalreadyexperiencing achanged Climate changesto date | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ONREDALERT 25 . Between 1961and2004, o C inNorthernScotland. 2 . o C current globalprotected areanetwork which isanarearoughlyequivalent to the climate for refugia plantandanimalspecies, of the globebecomes available to actas At 1.5°Cversus 2°C,anadditional5.5–14% warming to below 2 intention by governments to limitglobal The ParisAgreement signalledaclear change could develop inanumberof ways. change. However, patterns future of climate have alreadybegun to exhibit signsof Both theglobalandScottish climate pathways Climate change increase to 1.5 efforts to move closerto limitingthe of plantsand4%of vertebrates at1.5 vertebrates at2°Cversus 6%of insects,8% (18% of insects,16%of plantsand8%of is lower withasmallertemperature rise which willloseover halftheirclimate space Unsurprisingly, thenumberof species one of several potential pathways: global temperature increasecould follow on theactionstaken by governments, to be lower witha1.5 the spreadof invasive speciesareexpected Other related risks, suchasforest firesand 1.5 report different impactsonbiodiversity. The IPCC These different pathways willhave ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ o C riseversus a2 ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ A risewhichexceeds 2 A risewhichexceeds 2 A riselimited to 2 A riselimited to 1.5 lower level (‘anovershoot scenario’) temporarily, before returningto a 2 highlightsthelikely impactof a o C 3 . Therefore, depending o C onaglobalscale. o C andto pursue o C o

rise than2 C o C o o C C o C 2 o . C). 26 . SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENTLINKANDWWFSCOTLAND | both interms of habitatsandspecies. climate changeonScottish biodiversity, have attempted to predicttheimpactsof temperature. However, many studies in populationsdirectlywithchanges is notoften possibleto correlate changes datasets arelimited for many species,soit rise onUKorScottish biodiversity. Longterm major threatsto someof ourspecies. biodiversity, butithighlightssome of the exhaustive list of allimpactsonScottish within thosehabitats.This isnotan and identifiesthelikely impactsonspecies Each case studylooks ataspecifichabitat on key habitatsandspeciesinScotland. some of theimpactsof climate change The remainder of thisreportidentifies Case studies to belower ifa1.5 Ocean temperature risesarealsoexpected 2 level risecould reach50cmby 2100with increases to atleastoneperdecade. Sea projected percentury. However, at2°C,this warming, onesea-ice freeArcticsummeris The IPCC reportsuggeststhatwith1.5°Cof with a1.5 impacts of a1.5versus a2 research undertaken onthediffering To date, therehasbeenrelatively little expected to bemoresignificant at2 o C of warming butbelimited to 40cm o C

rise 27 . Ocean acidification isalso o C pathway isfollowed. o C temperature o C 2 . 15 Photo Credit: Adobe Stock 16 environment isalsoatriskfrom achangingclimate. toes inacool burnonahotday, ourfreshwater there isnothingmore refreshing thandippingyour their salmonstocks. Andwhilstitmay seemthat part of thelandscape, famed theworld over for The rivers andburnsof Scotland areanintegral habitats Freshwater | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ONREDALERT extent of shadingandadjacent landuse. number of factors, includingaltitude, is complex andcan beaffected by a temperature andwater temperature climate. The relationshipbetween air in thesectiononScotland’s changing different emissionscenarios, asdiscussed change. The extent of thatrisevaries with to riseinScotland asaresultof climate Mean airtemperatures arepredicted Temperature in terms of physical changes. significant impactsonScottish rivers A changingclimate willhave several TO CLIMATE CHANGE HABITAT CHANGESDUE

SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENTLINKANDWWFSCOTLAND | in anincreasedriskof deoxygenation on any oxygen thatisavailable, resulting weather, whichplaces demand afurther algal growth may alsoincreaseinwarmer lower sectionsof rivers andinstillwaters, reduce dissolved oxygen availability. In the combine withlower water levels to further life. Warmer water temperatures can also reducing availability of oxygen for aquatic oxygen levels inthewater decrease, As water temperature rises,dissolved warmer ifairtemperatures riseaspredicted. So, we can expect ourriver waters to get temperature duringthesummermonths 0.7 temperature could risebetween 0.4– and predictthatthemaximumwater Researchers have modelledthisrelationship o C for every 1 o C riseinmaximumair 29 . 28 . 17 18 ALREADY BEENDOCUMENTED? HAVE PHYSICAL CHANGES in Wales between 1981and2005 in amoorland streamhasbeenmodelled temperature inaforest streamand1.7 since 1968 Burn inAberdeenshirehasbeenstudied temperature arelimited buttheGirnock High quality,longterm datasetsonriver River temperature and anincreasedseverity of flooding. to bothagreater numberof flood events, rainfall isalsoexpected to increase,leading emission scenarios. The intensity of that varies acrossScotland andwithdifferent changing climate. The extent of theincrease winter months,isalsoexpected witha Increased rainfall, particularlyduringthe River levels | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ONREDALERT increase of 1.04 heavily polluted freshwater systems conditions could alsoleadto more dilute any incoming pollution,sodrier levels arelower, thereislesscapacity to up.Whenriversections of rivers drying levels andinextreme cases could leadto of drought.This willleadto lower river drier summersandanincreasedrisk are predicted to decrease,leadingto Conversely, summerprecipitationlevels pollution assiltiswashed into burns. erosion, whichcan contribute to water intensity rainfall can alsoresultinsoil Without careful landmanagement,high estimated increase of 1.4 temperature records. Forexample, an temperature andshorter runs of water a combination of changes inair water temperature changesfrom by researchersmodellinglong term Similar increaseshave beenrecorded of 1.46 increase inmonthlyaverage temperature o C was recorded for April,andan 31,32 . Between 1970and2000,an o C was recorded for July o C for water 33 . 30 . 23 o

C 32 . between 1953and2013 flows in winter, springandautumn which found anupwards trendinriver was analysed by theSpey Foundation from agaugingstationontheRiver Spey over the longerterm. Forexample, data Data arealsoavailable for river levels was alsorecorded across Scotland equal orgreater than10mminoneday) 8.3 extra days peryear of heavy rain (rainfall between 1961and2004 has beenrecorded for winter months increase inaverage precipitation totals available for precipitation, anda58.3% There aremorelong-term datasets Precipitation flow andmorespate conditions towards moreextended periodsof high‐ werecountry experiencing atrend the northernandwestern partsof the the UK,otherresearchersfound that records were analysed for rivers across

Photo Credit: Charlie Phillips 34 25 . Whenflow . Anincreaseof 35 . 25 . Scottish Sites of SpecialScientificInterest Arctic charrisaconservation feature infive IMPACTS ONBIODIVERSITY are of Europeanimportance Habitats Directive andtheUKpopulations salmon islisted inAnnex IIof theEU salmon, troutandArcticcharr.Atlantic freshwater fishspecies,including Atlantic has thepotential to impactonmany of our wide to fishoursalmon.Butclimate change stocks, withvisitors coming fromfar and Scotland’s rivers arefamed for theirfish Atlantic salmon,troutandArcticcharr temperatures can belethalfor them. water adapted species andhigherwater salmon, troutandArcticcharr areallcold- from risingwater temperatures. Atlantic Perhaps themostobvious impactis 42 , whilst SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENTLINKANDWWFSCOTLAND | 43 . ATLANTIC SALMON WHAT SPECIES: causing washout. and increasedflood events Increased water temperatures HOW WILLITBEAFFECTED: biodiversity it isintegral to aquatic ecosystem, and asaspecies it helpsdefine theaquatic This isakeystone species,as WHY ISITIMPORTANT: Throughout Scotland. WHERE ISITFOUND: in theriver of theirbirth. returning atmaturityto spawn of theirlives feeding atsea, freshwater butspendmost 1.5 minlength.They breedin freshwater fish,growing up to salmon isScotland’s largest the ‘Kingof theFish’,Atlantic Atlantic salmon.Known as in Scotland total of £113milliononangling estimated thatanglersspenda inScotland. Itis industry globally recognised angling Atlantic salmonsupportsa of thefreshwater environment. indicator of thestate of health the west coast of Scotland. in many rivers, particularlyon and hasdeclinedmarkedly Action Planpriorityspecies, this total. ItisaUKBiodiversity for over 65%(£73million)of sea troutanglersaccounting 36 37 , withsalmonand . Itisalsoan 19 20 to changing climaticconditions for themto their range shift inresponse them inonelocation andmakes itharder preference for lochlocations, whichisolates Arctic charrisalsoexacerbated by their 25 to 30 watersurvive temperatures of morethan unsuitable for Atlantic salmon temperature risemay make theselocations for brown trout.Additionally, further in theselocations becoming unsuitable changes inwater temperatures, resulting unshaded, moorlandlocations experience no shading.This could meanthatopen, lethal levels inopenwater areas,with is potential for temperatures to reach lower water levels indroughtyears, there deep, fast-flowing water. However, with temperatures thathighinScotland in It isunlikely thatwe willexperience water have declinedthemost location, altitudeordepth)were found to vulnerable to climate change(dueto their Those populations considered to bemost lethal to Atlantic salmon temperatures between 27and33ºCare of exposure to warmer water, riseinwater water temperature rises,andtheduration Depending onthespeedatwhich water temperatures of just1-5 rates for eggsof Arcticcharroccur atwinter species. Forexample, optimumhatching growth rates andeggsurvival for thesefish an increaseinwater temperature can reduce Even withoutreachingalethaltemperature, only survive temperaturesonly survive upto 22to 27 vulnerable to increasesintemperature of eggsof Arcticcharristherefore particularly | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ONREDALERT have declinedinabundance since 1990. 10 of the11UKpopulationsof Arcticcharr Arctic charr,butarecent studyshowed that Scotland isregardedasastrongholdfor o C, whilstyoung Arcticcharrcan 47 44 . The threatto . Trout cannot o C. The viability 45 . 48 . 46 . o C. and even throughfishstranding gravels, anincreaseinhabitat instability stocks throughthewashout of eggsfrom High river flows can bedamaging to fish to impactonourfreshwater fish. spate occurrence alsohasthepotential rainfall, andtheassociated increasein The projected increasesinwinter years after significant spate events found a15.5%declineincatches inthe data incomparison withhighflows, it the Spey Foundationreviewed rodcatch and lossof habitat combination of poaching,water pollution have declined significantly, due to a But over theyears, pearlmusselpopulations for JuliusCaesar’sdesireto invade Britain. reputed to have beenoneof thereasons The presence of freshwater pearlmusselis Freshwater pearlmussel 49 . They arenow listed 31 . When 31 . or sometimeseven land. onto dry dropping theminunsuitableriver habitat, to bewashed outof theriver gravels, often significant spate events cause themussels riverbed gravels inwhichthey live increased water levels helpto cleansethe benefit thefreshwater pearlmussel,asthe mortality. Slightlyhigherriver flows could levels have beenshown to resultinmussel However, significant risesor falls in water pearl mussel,thishasnotbeenquantified. have anegative impactonthefreshwater although risingwater temperatures may isnotknown, so pearl musselsurvival The upperthermallimitfor freshwater contribute to thelossof populations. change hasthepotential to further surviving inmainlandEurope surviving IUCN, withonlyafew viablepopulations and areclassifiedasvulnerable by the on Annex IIof theEUHabitatsDirective 50 . Climate 51 . But SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENTLINKANDWWFSCOTLAND | ARCTIC CHARR between lochsinresponse. exacerbated by itsinabilityto move Increased water temperatures HOW WILL IT BEAFFECTED: change against changesdriven by climate in developing protective measures diversity importantfeatures arevery determining thesignificance of its and challengesassociated in The understandingof itsdiversity diversityfunctional inanecosystem. representative of complexity and Arctic charrasaspeciesis WHY ISITIMPORTANT: In uplandfreshwater lochs. WHERE ISITFOUND: after thelastIce Age. fish to colonise Scotland species was thefirstfreshwater Arctic charr.Itislikely thatthis WHAT SPECIES: the UKBiodiversity Action Plan. requiring conservation actionunder as beingthemostthreatened and 39 . These speciesareidentified 38 21

Photo Credit: Adobe Stock FRESH WATER PEARLMUSSEL 22 adding another layer of vulnerability. pressures) for partof itslife cycle, likely to bethreatened by climate and brown trout(specieswhichare mussel reliesontheAtlantic salmon Additionally, thefreshwater pearl events, increaseddroughtevents. water temperatures, increaseflood vulnerability willincreasewithrisein rivers thatusedto contain it.Its it hasbeenlostfromathirdof the the world. Over thelast100years critically endangeredmolluscs in by theIUCNandisoneof themost It iscurrentlyclassedasendangered HOW WILL IT BEAFFECTED: ecosystems species inseveral freshwater Freshwater pearlmusselisakeystone WHY ISITIMPORTANT: In clean,fast flowing rivers. WHERE ISITFOUND: the longest-livinginvertebrates. years makingthisspeciesoneof larger andcan live morethan100 shape to marinemusselsbutgrows Freshwater pearlmussel.Similarin WHAT SPECIES: | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ONREDALERT Atlantic salmonandbrown trout and thereby Scottish waters are its hosts,importanthostsinEuropean indirectly improves habitatqualityfor populations. Freshwater pearlmussel important freshwater pearlmussel’s holds many of theworld’s most freshwater biodiversity. Scotland important indicator for measuring 40 . This speciesisan 41 . periods in2018 at theedgesof rivers duringdrought where musselsdiedasthey were stranded water. This hasoccurred inrivers inPortugal, an extent thatthemusselsareoutof the low flow, water levels can drop to such submerged inwater, butinperiodsof very pearl musselsneedto bepermanently on freshwater pearlmussel.Freshwater can have asignificant negative impact Conversely, increasedperiodsof drought of thepopulation) being killed(estimated to be5-10% 1998 resulted inover 50,000mussels inScotlandflood ontheRiver in Kerry For example, aonce ina100-year change /river bedinstabilitythreats 26 were considered to have climate of 126pearlmusselrivers inScotland, greater riskthanmoreadaptable species. be too rapid for them,puttingthemat current timescales of climate changemay slowly to achangingenvironment, andthe This meansthey can onlyrespondvery with along-life span(often upto 100years). Freshwater pearlmusselsareslow colonisers Scotland duringthelow river levels of 2018. 54 andalsooccurred in 52 . Inarecent survey 53 . 1975/76 lower in2015/16thanthey were in of 14 wader speciesreported as21% within Scotland, withcombined numbers birds have alreadydeclinedsignificantly also beaffected by climate change.These Many of ourwading bird speciescould between 1986-1990and2011-2015 and West Scotland, have declinedby 43% scoter, whichbreedinsmalllochsNorth RSPB estimate thatpopulationsof common risk of achangingclimate. Forexample, the Some of ourfreshwater birdsarealsoat Birds threateningmussels, further theirsurvival. a knock-oneffect onfreshwater pearl their populationsdecline,thiswillhave are impacted by climate changeand If Atlantic salmonandtroutpopulations on salmonidfish for part of theirlifecycle. In addition,freshwater pearlmussels rely recent years population hasdeclinedsubstantiallyin climatic conditions andtheUKbreeding of extinction in theUKdueto changing birds areconsidered to have ahighrisk levels willinevitably affect them. and sochanges inprecipitation birds arefound in wet environments 57 . Asthenamesuggests,these 56 . 55 . The

Photo Credit: Joel Berglund SCO TTISH ENVIRONMENTLINKANDWWFSCOTLAND | in Wales. invertebrates withinheadwater streams impact of water temperature riseson insect feeding birdsand mammals. and Arcticcharr, aswell asonother species suchas Atlantic salmon,trout effects theirlosscould have on fish in thefood chain,andtheconsequential on invertebrate speciesliesintheirposition An additionalsignificance of any impacts role inthedistributionof thisspecies water temperature plays animportant south-facing burns,suggestingthat burns, butabsentinadjacent, warmer, the mayfly to bepresentinnorth-facing upwards. IntheClunieWater, they found to becontracting both northwards and mayfly. They found thatits range appeared changes inrange for theuplandsummer For example, researchersinvestigated which areassociated withcolder water. of range for specificinvertebrate species Other studieshave looked atthechange expected, reducingoverall biodiversity. local extinction of somespecieswould be With temperature gainsof 3 Durance andOrmerod Invertebrates fledgling weight struggle to obtainenoughfood to reach chicks to reachthem,andthey may then profile. This makes itharder for lapwing and earthworms move lower inthesoil becomes drier,thewater tabledrops, rainfall decreasesandthegrassland on earthworms inwet grassland. Ifsummer For example, maturinglapwing chicks feed by 21%for every 1 and thatabundance could decline significantly affected by temperature of springmacroinvertebrates was They found thattheabundance temperature above currentlevels. 58 . o C riseinwater 29 looked atthe o C ormore, 59 . 23 Photo Credit: Charlie Phillips 24 gaps alsoapplyto theimpactsof climate change. the terrestrial environment andtheseknowledge know lessaboutthemarineenvironment than both economic andbiodiversity resources, we has always been important.Despite providing As anislandnation,Scotland’s marineenvironment Habitats Marine | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ONREDALERT only 1 the northandwest of Scotland may be However, temperatures inthesummer under amediumemissionsscenario. that is2to 2.5 2009 estimate aseasurface temperature change. The UK Climate Projections rise aroundScotland asaresultof climate Mean seatemperatures arepredicted to Temperature water temperature andsealevels. marine environment willberisesin The mostobvious changesinthe TO CLIMATE CHANGE HABITAT CHANGESDUE expected to change significantly shelf, temperatures atseabedarenot deepwatersvery beyond thecontinental expected to belike thesurface. But inthe the extent of warming attheseabedis shelf, whereseadepthsareshallower, evident inautumn.Onthecontinental o C warmer, withthewarming most o C warmer by 2080-90

60 . SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENTLINKANDWWFSCOTLAND | could increaseby 120%by 2060 acidity hasincreasedby about30%and Since theIndustrialRevolution, seawater amounts andbecome moreacidic. is emitted, theoceans absorbgreater carbonic acid.Asmorecarbon dioxide then dissolves inseawater to produce The ocean absorbscarbon dioxide, which Acidification Orkney and50cminShetland. rises of 40cmfor theHebridesand the remainderof themainland, with larger risesof 35cmarepredicted for medium emissionsscenario). Slightly and theMoray Firthby 2095(undera 30cm intheClyde to Skye coastal waters 2009 estimate ariseof approximately change, andtheUKClimate Projections Sea levels arepredicted to risewithclimate Sea level 61 . 25 26 | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ON RED ALERT SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENT LINK AND WWF SCOTLAND | 27

HAVE PHYSICAL CHANGES In north-western Europe, water of that Making assessments of marine mammal ALREADY BEEN DOCUMENTED? depth is mostly limited to latitudes of less populations and any shifts in their range WHITE BEAKED DOLPHIN than 60o north, such as the area to the west is difficult, but the records of mammal Temperature of Scotland. If waters warm within these strandings can be used to establish which Between 1985 and 2009, sea temperatures areas, this could potentially lead to dramatic species are occurring in Scottish waters. WHAT SPECIES: were found to have increased by 0.4oC in reductions in populations of species such as When the strandings data from 1948 to White beaked dolphin. They the coastal waters to the south east and white-beaked dolphins, which need both 2003 was analysed, no new species were are quite large dolphins and south west of Scotland and by 0.3oC in cool and relatively shallow water54. Often recorded between 1965 and 1981. From often, but not always, have a the waters around the north of Scotland these areas of shallower water are separated 1981 onwards, four new species were short, thick, white beak. (data calculated from a combination of by areas of deep ocean, which isolates recorded in North-West Scotland, three of satellite and in-situ observations)62. populations in specific areas, making them which (Striped dolphin, Fraser’s dolphin WHERE IS IT FOUND: In cold temperate sub-polar waters more vulnerable to changing conditions. and pygmy sperm whale) were associated Acidification with normal ranges in warmer waters54. of the north Atlantic Ocean. An There are few long-term datasets on estimated 80% of the European When the ranges of common cetaceans An increase in the number of marine sea water acidity for UK waters, but population is found around the were compared with likely changes in mammal species occurring in Scottish more recent monitoring at Stonehaven UK and Scotland is an important conditions, it was found that the range waters may sound like a good thing, but has found a statistically significant habitat for the white-beaked of 88% of the studied species could it should be noted that a sightings survey decline in pH (i.e. an increase in dolphin, especially around the be affected, with 47% of the species undertaken in the west of Scotland in acidity) between 2008 and 201563. northern Minch, Outer Hebrides experiencing unfavourable range changes 2002/03 found a decrease in sightings of and the northern North Sea. and 21% experiencing changes that species associated with colder water, such Sea level could lead to localised extinctions68. as the white-beaked dolphin54, so some The extent of sea level rise to date varies WHY IS IT IMPORTANT: species may disappear from Scottish waters. around the Scottish coast, partly due to the White-beaked dolphin is listed on land moving upwards since the last ice-age the Scottish Biodiversity List65 and (isostatic readjustment) at differing rates. is considered an important species One of the longest time-series records of for conservation. It is a Priority sea level comes from Aberdeen, where sea Marine Feature and a Search levels showed no significant trends between Feature under the Scottish Marine 1920 and the mid-1980s. Since 1985, sea Protected Area project, making levels at Aberdeen have been more than it a marine conservation priority 6cm higher than the 1920s baseline, and and highlighting its importance between 2006-08 sea levels were higher nationally as well as internationally. than the 1920s by more than 10cm64. HOW WILL IT BE AFFECTED:

IMPACTS ON BIODIVERSITY Tetly Credit: Mike Photo Climate change is the single largest threat facing the white- Whales, Dolphins and Porpoises beaked dolphin. Forecasts indicate As sea water temperatures change, some that Scotland may lose its white- cetacean (whales, dolphins and porpoises) beaked dolphin populations, species will shift their ranges to areas where as it is already at the edge of its water is at a more suitable temperature. range here and is being pushed For species that prefer colder water, their further north with warming seas. range is likely to move northwards and will reduce as the areas of warmer water expand67. Many cetacean species are also limited to certain depths of water, with some preferring the shallower waters of coastal shelves (less than 200m deep). 28 | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ON RED ALERT SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENT LINK AND WWF SCOTLAND | 29

Sea birds Molluscs Climate change is considered as the Ocean acidification impacts on the ability of primary cause of seabird decline, mollusc species to form their characteristic although this is often via indirect shells. This effect has been studied in links, such as a reduction in food many species globally and a combined availability, rather than as a direct analysis of multiple studies found that the response to increased temperatures45. likely future levels of ocean acidification could reduce calcification (the process Within the UK’s seabird population, by which these species build shells) in KITTIWAKE kittiwakes have declined by approximately molluscs by 40%71. This has the potential 60% since 1986. Kittiwakes are on the to be detrimental not just to naturally amber list of Birds of Conservation WHAT SPECIES: occurring mollusc species, but also for Concern in the EU Birds Directive. In the Kittiwake. The ringing clamour of commercial users of molluscs, such as the North Sea they rely on sandeels during this delicate gull, so characteristic oyster and mussel farming industries. the breeding season and changing of many of Scotland’s seabird cliffs, ocean conditions appear to be affecting Machair gave the kittiwake its name. sandeel populations. Sandeels feed on Machair is a unique habitat that is only zooplankton, including the copepod WHERE IS IT FOUND: found in northern Scotland and north- Calanus finmarchicus. Studies have In seabird colonies around the UK. western Ireland. It is listed on Annex 1 of found that warming waters are less likely The largest colonies are on the east the EU Habitats Directive, and has a total to be suitable for this copepod, leading coast, from St Abbs Head to Shetland. global area of just 19,000 hectares72. It is to reduced abundance in the southern the result of both physical factors (sand extent of its range, which includes the WHY IS IT IMPORTANT: partly consisting of shell fragments, a low- North Sea. This, in turn, leads to a decline The population has declined more lying coastline and strong winds) and the in sandeel populations, which is then rapidly than almost any other species particular way in which the land has been linked to low reproductive success in of seabird, recording a 66% decline managed over the centuries73. Its location seabird species such as kittiwakes 69,70. ,. in Scotland between 1986 and 2011. in a low-lying, relatively flat landscape On some colonies, such as St Kilda, means it is particularly vulnerable to sea 66 Impacts may also be felt even further the decline has approached 90% .

level rise. A combination of coastal flooding Stock Credit: Adobe Photo up the food chain, such as on great It is on the amber list in the UK’s and increased winter precipitation levels skuas that can prey on kittiwakes45. birds of conservation concern. could result in standing waters remaining on machair land for longer periods of time However, birds such as great skua can HOW WILL IT BE AFFECTED: (as is already anecdotally suggested by be generalists – they are more flexible Steadily rising sea temperatures Western Isles crofters). This would make BLUE CARBON and will switch prey species if required. are believed to be contributing to the land harder to plough and cultivate The marine environment also has an Other birds, such as black-headed gulls breeding failure. This species eats a and may result in more land falling into important role to play in our efforts to and guillemots will follow a similar variety of small fish with sandeels disuse. But it is this human intervention mitigate climate change. Recent research strategy. Populations of these species forming the bulk of the diet in the in the form of cultivation which is a key has estimated that significant amounts showed an increase between 2000 and east and sprats more important component in maintaining the diversity of of carbon are captured and stored in 2015, suggesting that flexibility in food in the west. Breeding productivity machair. If traditional land management the Scottish marine environment74. It is source selection may make some species is closely linked to reduction in techniques are no longer feasible because therefore important that these habitats more adaptable to climate change45. food source, due to diminished of increased flooding, this unique habitat are protected and enhanced in the sandeel abundance, which thrive may be lost from much of its existing range. future, to avoid any human impacts in low sea temperatures. reducing their carbon storage capacity. 30 | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ON RED ALERT SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENT LINK AND WWF SCOTLAND | 31

Photo Credit: Danny Carden

HABITAT CHANGES DUE Estimates of snow cover have been TO CLIMATE CHANGE produced by The Scottish Executive Central Scotland’s mountains are relatively small Research Unit77. Their emissions scenarios by European standards, with a maximum vary slightly from the UK climate projections height of just 1344m, but climatic conditions (2009) models, but the estimates for Mountain 75 change rapidly as altitude increases . Scotland suggest a decrease of between 7 and 19 days of snow cover by the 2050s. Snow cover Predictions vary for different regions of Mean air temperatures are predicted to Scotland, but for the Highlands snow habitats rise in Scotland because of climate change. cover days are predicted to decrease by This will reduce the number of days with 30% by the 2050s whilst in the Grampian It is not difficult to imagine how a changing climate surface temperatures below zero, which region a decrease of 33% is predicted78. might affect our montane environments – a warmer will reduce the number of days where world will inevitably impact on the snow and any precipitation falls or lies as snow76. The UK climate projections (2009) do not ice at the tops of Scotland’s iconic mountains. provide projections for future changes to snowfall rate, but the Met Office Hadley Centre RCM ensemble predicts in a medium emissions scenario a reduction in mean winter snowfall of 65-80% over mountain areas in the UK by the 2080s. 32 | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ON RED ALERT SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENT LINK AND WWF SCOTLAND | 33

HAVE PHYSICAL CHANGES IMPACTS ON BIODIVERSITY They found that in a low emissions ALREADY BEEN DOCUMENTED? scenario, 78% of the locations they Loss of habitat SNOW BUNTING studied would no longer be climatically Snow cover Air temperature declines with altitude, so suitable for Arctic / montane species, Statistically significant decreases in days of the higher slopes of our mountains provide such as dwarf willow, moss campion WHAT SPECIES: snow cover have been seen between 1961 habitat for species which adapt to colder Snow bunting. Weighing no more and stiff sedge whilst in a high emission and 2004 for autumn and spring. Overall, environments. As average temperatures than a golf ball, this small bird with across Scotland, the number of days of snow scenario 93% of the studied locations increase under climate change it is 61 its striking ‘snowy’ plumage is one of would become unsuitable . Many of these cover has declined by 32.1% over the last 43 likely that there will be a decline in the rarest breeding birds in the UK. 79 species form part of plant communities years . As the most significant decreases climatically suitable habitat for montane protected under the EU Habitats Directive have been in autumn and spring, the and Arctic-alpine species61. Additionally, WHERE IS IT FOUND: as Annex 1 habitats, so their loss or length of the snow season is shortening. species which are more associated with Breeding populations are found on alteration is particularly significant. o warmer climates will be able to expand the high tops of Scotland’s mountains. Researchers found that the 1 C rise in temperature corresponded to a 15-day further uphill and may replace some Bird species which are at the southern edge Snow buntings build their nests in 83 reduction in snow cover at 130 m and a of the Arctic / alpine specialists . of their range in UK are also likely to decline. rock crevices on bare mountain slopes 15 80 Scientists in Finland used a combination or rocky shores and lay four to six eggs. 33-day reduction at 750 m at Ben Lawers . For example, researchers looked at the of climatic and bird sighting data to Therefore, in warmer years, late-lying snow likely loss of suitable climate space establish a modelled ‘climate space’ for a WHY IS IT IMPORTANT: will be less prevalent and the remnant snow for Arctic / montane species at three variety of species, which then determines It is a scarce breeding species in the patches much reduced in size. This may sites in Scotland (Ben Lawers, Ben their range. This is usually modelled UK, making it an Amber List species. also translate into an increase in river levels Heasgarnich and Meall na Samhna). either by correlating current species In Scotland, it is currently one of the downstream, as more precipitation will distributions with climate variables84, rarest breeding bird species with a flow directly into rivers, rather than being as in this case, or by an assessment of a population of only 60 breeding pairs. ‘held up’ in the mountains as snow cover. species’ physiological responses to climate Future changes in the snow bunting variables. They then modelled how that population will help to explain how climate envelope might vary with future the snow bunting is responding to the climate change, and what effect this might changes in its montane environment81. have on the distribution of certain birds.

HOW WILL IT BE AFFECTED: Increased temperatures will They found that within northern lead to reduced range. Scandinavia, the distribution of snow buntings, a bird also strongly associated with Scottish mountain environments, could decrease by 59% by 2050 under a high emissions scenario and 51% under a low emissions scenario.

For ptarmigan also an important Scottish bird, the decline in distribution in their study area was modelled as 90% by 2080 under a low emissions scenario, and 98% under a high emissions scenario. Photo Credit: Adobe Stock Credit: Adobe Photo 34 | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ON RED ALERT SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENT LINK AND WWF SCOTLAND | 35

Community changes Amongst plant communities, some species DWARF WILLOW will fare better than others on Scotland’s mountains. Large scale re-surveys of vegetation plots have reported declines WHAT SPECIES: in Arctic and montane species. When Dwarf willow. One of the researchers resurveyed plots that were shortest woody plants in the first surveyed in 1956-58, they found that world, barely if ever reaching nearly a third of all species with an Arctic 2 inches above the ground. / montane distribution, such as crowberry 65 WHERE IS IT FOUND: and alpine lady’s mantle had declined . In high mountainous bare and rocky ground. Across 126 plots in upland vegetation, they found that 79 species had been WHY IS IT IMPORTANT: lost and only 13 new species gained. Scotland is an international stronghold of dwarf shrub In general, this was the result of rarer moorland. Dwarf willow is part of species being replaced by generalists, Scotland’s alpine and montane with the vegetative composition of the plant community, providing plots becoming increasingly similar. species diversity. A long-term In contrast, other surveyors have found study indicates that species an increase in species richness in alpine diversity and vegetation of habitats, but this has been as a result of an moorlands has changed over time increase in lowland generalist species, whilst resulting in reduced biodiversity northern and alpine species declined. This is value, with the loss of specialist particularly the case in snowbed vegetation, 82 species like dwarf willow . where larger plants have colonised the area and may outcompete the specialised HOW WILL IT BE AFFECTED: mosses and liverworts which were previously The species is likely to experience associated with areas of late-lying snow85. loss of suitable climate space and could decline in cover. Many of these species are also being affected by other pressures. For example, excess nitrogen in the atmosphere is also changing the nature of arctic/alpine heath. In this habitat, moss cover has been found to drop from 90% to 20% as nitrogen levels increase, while grasses, sedges and rushes increase from 5% to 55% cover86. Photo Credit: Laurie Campbell Photo Photo Credit: Adobe Stock 36 moorlands arealsoatriskfromclimate change. by processes suchasover-grazing anddrainage, our one of theiconic imagesof Scotland. Alreadyaffected Purple bloomingheatheronaswathe of moorlandis Moorland | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ONREDALERT than 70%of thisiswithinScotland area of thisvegetation typeandmore approximately 75%of thetotal global enclosed farmland. The UKholds in theuplands,above thezone of coastal heaths,butitismostcommon throughout Scotland, includingon Heather-dominated moorlandisfound TO CLIMATE CHANGE HABITAT CHANGESDUE decreases insummerprecipitation. increases inwinter precipitation and temperatures, decreasedsnow cover, changes asotherhabitats–increased be subjectto thesamephysical Heather dominated moorlandswill

87 . SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENTLINKANDWWFSCOTLAND | from climate changeisdifficult physical changesfromthoseresulting that separating outtheeffects of these and nitrogendeposition afforestation for commercial forestry deer; landdrainage; excessive muirburn; grazing by bothdomesticherbivores and a resultof humanactivity. These include experienced several physical changesas However, the moorlandshave already 88 . This means 67 . 37 38 | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ON RED ALERT SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENT LINK AND WWF SCOTLAND | 39

Birds One way to tackle this issue appears to A changing climate may impact a species be restoring degraded peatland areas. directly, or it can affect them indirectly Managing the peatland area so that soil through altering other factors. Scientists moisture levels are maintained or increased investigated the importance of different can increase cranefly populations. This insect groups to upland insectivorous obviously benefits for cranefly predators, birds, and then also assessed the sensitivity such as golden plover, but it also enables of those different insect groups to a peatland areas to store more carbon92. 70 GOLDEN PLOVER changing climate . They found that Tipulidae (craneflies) are particularly Invertebrates important for birds such as dunlin and red Several butterfly species associated with WHAT SPECIES: grouse. However, in years with a summer the north of the UK were studied to see if Golden plover. This is a medium-sized drought, there is a high mortality rate they were moving further northwards in plover with a distinctive gold and amongst the young larvae, which leads response to climate change. These species black summer plumage which in the to a reduced emergence of the craneflies are all associated with upland grassland winter is replaced by buff and white. after a hot, dry summer. For those birds habitats, which are often found in a mosaic which rely on these insect groups for with heather dominated moorland. Three WHERE IS IT FOUND: food, a reduced emergence could lead to of the studied species (mountain ringlet, The golden plover is a small scotch argus and northern brown argus) all

Photo Credit: Adobe Stock Credit: Adobe Photo reduced food availability at key lifecycle wading bird that breeds on higher stages. For example, the snow bunting showed changes in distribution that were moorlands and spends the winter which is dependent on the craneflies linked to climate, whilst a fourth species in sizeable flocks at lowland as food source is on the amber list, and (Large heath) appeared to have declined sites on the coast or inland in is Scotland’s rarest breeding species, primarily due to loss of habitat93. As species river valleys or on arable land. IMPACTS ON BIODIVERSITY with only 60 pairs currently found in change their ranges in response to climate 90 change, habitat loss and fragmentation Vegetation composition Scotland . Populations of golden plover, WHY IS IT IMPORTANT: which are at the southern edge of their may prevent them from moving into Long term studies of moorland vegetation The UK holds about 8% of the global range in the UK also feed on craneflies. new climate spaces, as well as causing have found that species composition breeding population and around locally based population extinctions. a quarter of the global population within moorland vegetation is changing. In years with high August temperatures, in winter, it is currently Amber A re-survey of vegetation plots in Scotland cranefly abundance is reduced, which listed in UK’s birds of conservation which had been sampled 35 years leads to a reduced survival of golden concern. The Scottish breeding previously found that species richness plover chicks in subsequent years. Golden population has declined by a had increased. Whilst an increase can plover population in the Pennines was also quarter over the last 20 years89. sound like a good thing, in general the studied, where August temperatures were increase was because of commoner found to have increased by 1.9oC between HOW WILL IT BE AFFECTED: species moving in, and in particular, from 1971 and 2005. Based on the impact of Climate change appears to be a species that prefer warmer climates high August temperatures on golden plover 67 significant threat to the golden moving upslope . Rarer species declined, populations (via the loss of craneflies as a plover, not only through direct particularly those associated with higher food source), the researchers forecasted impacts on key habitats, but also altitudes. Some of the changes were also that with an ongoing rate of temperature causing a mismatch in the annual attributed to pollutant deposition and rise of this scale, the population had a timing of breeding and of the grazing patterns, which also impact on 96% likelihood of extinction by 2100. o annual emergence of their chicks’ vegetation community composition. In With a reduced rise of only another 2 C st critical invertebrate prey, craneflies. combination, these factors appear to be for the remainder of the 21 century, the resulting in a gradual loss of the unique population would still decline by 44%, biodiversity value of Scotland’s moorlands. but would not be at risk of extinction91. Photo Credit: Danny Carden 40 and therichplantlife of ourwet Atlantic woodland. associated withourancientCaledonianpinewoods Scotland’s woodlands includetheiconic landscapes and forests Woodlands | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ONREDALERT are ingoodcondition for biodiversity than halfof thosenative woodlands of the total landareaof Scotland. Less current Scottish woodland areaand4% woodland accounts for only22.5%of the commercial speciesandasof 2011,native expansion hasbeenof non-native we consider thatmostof woodland become even more significant when The challenges posedby climate change woodland inaheavily managedlandscape. there aresmallandisolated pockets of to climate change,particularlywhere woodlands andforests arealsosusceptible can withstandalmostanything. Butour Macbeth, itcan beeasy to thinkthattrees Birnam oak,immortalisedinShakespeare’s Standing beneathmajestictreeslike the SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENTLINKANDWWFSCOTLAND | if they resultinhigh windspeeds. may alsoaffect woodlands, particularly increase inextreme weather events decreases insummerprecipitation. An increases inwinter precipitation and affected by increasedtemperatures, habitats butaremostlikely to be the samephysical changesasother Scottish woodlands willbesubjectto carpets of bryophytes andlichens high rainfall levels resultinextensive areas of Western Scotland, where generally found inthemilder,wetter broad-leaved Atlantic woodlands are climatic conditions. Forexample, our currentlyexperiencecountry different in different geographical parts of the Spread throughoutScotland, woodlands CLIMATE CHANGEIMPACTS 94 . 41 CAPERCAILLIE 42 Annex 1speciesinEUBirdsDirective. UK’s birdsof conservation concern, Strathspey. Itiscurrentlyredlisted in with mostbirdsnow found in abandoned largeareasof itsrange, capercaillie hasmorerecently decline may have slowed butthe of Scottish extinction. The overall in the1830sbutisnow againatrisk and was successfully reintroduced months reduce chicksurvival. breeding seasonandwetter spring of cold, wet weather during the productivity fromacombination for the habitat),low breeding of land climatically suitable Loss of climate space (area HOW WILL IT BEAFFECTED: It was extinct by theearly19 WHY ISITIMPORTANT: with abundantblaeberry also matureconiferous forests a rare andvulnerable habitat, the Caledonianpineforests –itself females inspring.Itisfound in where groupsof malesdisplay to It isfamous for its‘lekking’behaviour, WHERE ISITFOUND: a largewoodland grouse. Capercaillie. The capercaillie is WHAT SPECIES: | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ONREDALERT 98 . th century century IMPACTS ONBIODIVERSITY additional impactsof climate change. make woodland moresusceptible to the combination of adverse impactsmay and poorgrazing management.This be affected by pollution,invasive species today. Otherwoodland areascan also one of thepressuresaffecting woodland commercial species,suchasSitka spruce out over whichnon-native thelastcentury large-scale afforestation activitiescarried However, much of thisincreaseisdueto century tocentury 19%of landareatoday they areassisted by plantingactivities. therefore expected to belimited unless areas withsuitableclimaticconditions are slowly.very Tree range expansions into growers andsotheirrange willonlyshift conditions. However, treesareslow to move andfollow thenew climatic climate changes,thatrange isexpected where they can grow successfully. Asthe species, treeshave aclimaticrange In common withotherplantandanimal Slow movers rising from5%atthestartof the20 Woodland cover hasincreasedin Scotland, urban areas by intensively managedagricultural or in isolated patches, often surrounded Much of ourwoodland continues to be 97 . This fragmentation isjust 95 . th

96 .

Photo Credit: Charlie Phillips affected as migrant birdspecies,areadversely species dependingonthesetimings,such phenological mismatch, whereother buds/ seedsappear)andcan cause a phenology (thetimingsof whenleaves/ Climate changealsoaffects tree species sensitive to theeffects of climate change. woodland speciescould beparticularly track new climate ranges. This meansthat dispersers, whichmay limittheirabilityto bird speciesalsoappearto beslow programme called Nature’sCalendar Trust istracking throughacitizen science well having areduced chance of survival. insects, withthose chicks that eatless capercaillie chick’sabilityto forage for shows thatawet Junereduces the on capercaillie breedingsuccess. Research summer can alsohave anegative effect Higher precipitationlevels inearly is associated withwarmer conditions precipitation levels increase,even ifthat therefore have reduced if winter survival plumage. Birdssuchastreecreepersmay tree, whichcan quicklysoaktheir breast so, they encounter thewet barkof the up thetrunks of maturetrees.Indoing affected. Forexample, treecreepersmove damp conditions can beparticularlybadly insulation. So,birdsthatareexposed to become wet, makingitlesseffective at levels arehigh,abird’splumagewill Whenprecipitation effect onsurvival. in precipitation,thiscould have anegative if thatisalsoaccompanied by anincrease for somewoodland birdspecies.However, ratesincrease survival over thewinter period An increaseinwinter temperatures could Birds disperse to new areas fragmented, itwillbeharderfor speciesto Where thewoodland habitatsbecome 100 . This issomethingtheWoodland 99 . Many woodland 102 101 . . SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENTLINKANDWWFSCOTLAND | of 0.7 space for capercaillie shows thatwitharise concern intheUK.Modellingof climate is ontheredlistof birdsof conservation declined substantiallyinScotland, andit The capercaillie populationhasalready conditions for thisspeciesisnotpromising underthese Scottish capercaillie population,theoutlook Given thealreadyprecarious state of the capercaillie loses99%of itspotential space. for Scottish Terrestrial BreedingBirds The recently publishedIndex of Abundance main hatching periodof thisspecies. withthe earlier andsoisoutof sync pied flycatcher chicks, istakingplace caterpillar abundance, themaindietof temperatures become higher,peak birds of conservation concern. Asspring another redlisted speciesintheUK’s several birds,suchaspiedflycatcher, mismatch hasalsobeenrecorded in The phenomenonof phenological enhance capercaillie preferred habitats. resident orshort‐distance migrants decades, often to agreater degree than such migrant birdshave declinedinrecent evidence thatEuropean populationsof bird indicator. There iscompelling Scotland to beincludedinthiswoodland monitored by volunteer ornithologistsin not encountered often enoughinareas redstart andwood warbler, arecurrently such aspiedandspotted flycatcher, notably trans-Saharan migrant songbirds and Europe.Somekey woodland species, woodland birdsinotherpartsof theUK upland andfarmland birds,andwith contrasts withtrendsinScottish seabirds, included intheindex of abundance. This of around69%inthewoodland species species, andanoverall increasesince 1994 shows increases in19of 23woodland bird But withahigherriseof 1.9 to lose59%of itspotential climate space. o C by the2050s,itcan beexpected 103 , unlessefforts aremadeto o C by the2050s, 105 104 . 43 44 | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ON RED ALERT SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENT LINK AND WWF SCOTLAND | 45

Plants Tree species will also have differing Care must be taken with the type and Many of these habitats already provide The composition of our wooded landscapes responses to climate change. Species that location of planting to avoid adverse important ecosystem services, including will alter with a changed climate. A are sensitive to drought may be adversely impacts on biodiversity and carbon carbon sequestration and it will be changing environment will affect both affected by any decrease in summer storage potential of other habitats such important to maintain those services woodlands and individual trees outside precipitation; cases of drought and heat as peatlands. It is also only one of the in the future. Tree-planting policies of woodland, such as hedgerow trees and induced tree mortality have been reported solutions to making our woodlands must therefore be based on ensuring open grown ancient and veteran trees. from around the world109. Some species more resilient to climate change. ‘the right tree in the right place’ to help For example, a key habitat which will be which are planted in commercial forestry Scotland respond to climate change. affected is our Atlantic woodland. These are also sensitive to drought, such as Sitka IMPLICATIONS FOR Our native trees and woodland have, in woodlands may experience milder winters; spruce. A Forestry Commission Scotland WOODLAND EXPANSION general, high levels of genetic diversity112. stronger winter gales and drier summers, study found 288 medium or high drought Emphasis should also be placed on This provides an opportunity for evolutionary which could lead to a loss of some of risk forest sites in eastern Scotland. Nearly expanding woodlands through natural adaptation to changing conditions. their characteristic bryophyte and lichen half of these contained Sitka Spruce, which regeneration as this allows for woodlands However, this process requires multiple flora106. This flora is adapted to the wet has previously responded to drought to be better adapted to local site conditions successive generations of trees which oceanic habitat, particularly on the west in eastern Scotland through either tree and will improve their resilience to are subject to the selection pressure of a coast of Scotland. Often these specialist stem cracking or complete tree death110. environmental change. Currently such changing climate. We need to ensure that species which are adapted to the oceanic regeneration across Scotland is severely there are sufficient opportunities within habitat are sensitive to micro and macro IMPLICATIONS FOR TREE PLANTING impacted by grazing from herbivores, woods to provide the possibilities for new climatic changes107. As such there is a need particularly deer. Woodland regeneration Planting more trees is often seen as a generations of trees, ideally through natural to manage at multiple scales to maintain could allow for the creation of resilient simple solution to climate change and regeneration. Native woodland of diverse these species. This includes increasing the woodlands, with a healthy mix of species, there is no doubt that it plays an important structure and tree species appropriate to extent and complexity of woodland sites to of various age ranges and sizes with role in climate change mitigation. Scotland the site will provide the greatest chances promote habitat diversity. It will also include a natural distribution pattern. These has ambitious targets for tree planting, for adaptive change. This may mean ensuring a sufficient width of riverside buffer woodlands could provide both, new which should rightly be applauded. planting more minor species where these zone woodland to enable populations habitat and extend existing ranges for However, care must be taken with the are appropriate to the site and using a mix to adjust to changing macroclimates. many woodland-dependant species. type and location of planting, to avoid of UK provenances rather than just local Research108 shows that the eastern range of adverse impacts on biodiversity. As highlighted earlier, tree species selection provenance planting stock. Evidence does habitat suitable for the oceanic bryophytes Climate change could create more is important for any new planting, so that not suggest that non-UK provenances and lichens that are characteristic of the favourable conditions for pests and the selected species is able to cope with a or species are needed to increase Atlantic woodlands will shrink under diseases, and therefore, exacerbate their changed climate, including lower summer resilience of ancient and native woods. climate change scenarios. The Atlantic rainfall. Planting on existing ‘open’ species- impact across Scotland and the UK. In Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) outline of woodlands or temperate rainforest on rich habitats, such as grasslands and relation to this, it is important to avoid the uncertainties around climate change the west coast of Scotland is the last and heathlands, should be avoided as it can lead monoculture planting (notably the reliance and new pests and pathogens means largest remnant of the habitat that used to a loss of biodiversity. Equally, regeneration on one species, of the same age, planted that we cannot assume that any single to extend along Europe’s Atlantic sea- and self-seeding of non-native commercial in rows) as that can be more susceptible approach will be effective at protecting board. If it declines and is lost, rainforest species, not to be confused with natural to the impacts of pests and diseases. The our woodlands and helping them to biodiversity has nowhere else to migrate regeneration of native woodland within its consequences of this could be devastating, adapt to new and dynamic conditions to as climate changes. Scotland must historical range, must be prevented and particularly for the commercial sector resulting from climate change113. therefore conserve the habitat that where monoculture planting is currently removed from precious open habitat. As remains and safeguard and protect it to the norm. The spread of invasive non-native acknowledged by the Forestry Commission, ensure it continues to offer a haven to species such as rhododendron which lessons should be learnt from previous some of the world’s rarest biodiversity. has already caused much damage to policies which encouraged the planting 111 Scotland’s woodlands, could be facilitated of commercial species on blanket bog . by changing climatic conditions. 46 | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ON RED ALERT SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENT LINK AND WWF SCOTLAND | 47

Future Outlook The current commitments submitted by governments as part of the Paris Agreement Photo Credit: Adobe Stock Credit: Adobe Photo are not sufficient to keep global temperature rise below 2oC. Other risks from climate change It is estimated that the current level of Climate change is yet another pressure The case studies above highlight some commitment will result in a median which is already starting to impact on o 116 of the direct risks from climate change warming of 2.6 – 3.1 C by 2100 . In order our biodiversity. As the case studies in to limit temperature rise to less than 2oC, this report show, climate change will faced by species and habitats in Scotland. governments will need to do more to accelerate the already rapid rate of However, there are other indirect risks cut emissions and do it more quickly. decline of our biodiversity, resulting in the loss of species and a disruption to the which may also affect our biodiversity. Both globally and within Scotland, ecosystem services on which we depend. biodiversity is suffering from a wide range of pressures, including habitat Immediate and substantial action is One major risk is that a changing climate Other pests and diseases may also be able fragmentation, pollution and over-grazing. clearly required to prevent catastrophic may allow more invasive species to spread to spread more quickly under changed Already we know that more than half of damage on both a global and Scottish within Scotland. These species can spread climatic conditions. For example, red band Scotland’s plant species and over a third scale. Rapid reduction of greenhouse gas quickly and reduce the resilience of our needle blight is a disease which affects of our butterfly species have declined. ecosystems and the services they provide. pine trees, causing them to drop their emissions and the achievement of net For example, the spread of water hyacinth needles prematurely. The disease has only Scotland’s Biodiversity Intactness Index zero emissions as soon as possible will give is currently limited by winter frosts in the been detected in Scotland recently, but shows that our biodiversity is no longer Scotland an opportunity to both protect UK. However, with an increase in winter there are concerns that a changing climate, in a condition to meet society’s needs. our own wildlife and demonstrate world temperatures and a reduction in frosts, particularly warmer spring months, could Other legislation which seeks to protect leadership in climate change mitigation. the plant may become more successful allow it to become more prevalent115. biodiversity in Scotland will require review in the UK114. Water hyacinth is regarded as and enhancement to reverse that decline. Warmer and drier summers may also a highly invasive plant, which can quickly lead to an increase in wildfire risk. Whilst choke waterways. Likewise, nuisance this has obvious implications for human filamentous algae such as water-net are health, it can also cause catastrophic thought to be spreading more rapidly damage to ecosystems which have not in response to warmer summers. evolved with a significant fire risk. 48 | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ON RED ALERT SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENT LINK AND WWF SCOTLAND | 49

Notes

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Spey Foundation. nb31b_condition_climate_sensitive_species_ 3 United Nations 2015. Paris Agreement in grassland plant communities in Scotland. 35 Hannaford, J and Marsh TJ, 2008. High‐flow arctic_charr_v04_branded_template.pdf Environmental Pollution 235, pp956 – 964 4 WWF, 2016, Living Planet Report 2016 and flood trends in a network of undisturbed 49 SNH. https://www.nature.scot/plants- 20 Curran JC and Curran SA, 2016. Indications catchments in the UK. International Journal animals-and-fungi/invertebrates/freshwater- 5 European Commission 2015. Science of positive feedback in climate change due of Climatology 28(10): 1325 – 1338 invertebrates/freshwater-pearl-mussel for environment policy. Ecosystem to a reduction in Northern Hemisphere services and biodiversity 36 The Atlantic Salmon Trust, 2018. https://www. 50 JNCC. http://jncc.defra.gov.uk/ProtectedSites/ biomass uptake of atmospheric carbon atlanticsalmontrust.org/the-atlantic-salmon-trust/ SACselection/species.asp?FeatureIntCode=S1029 6 Hayhow et al, 2016. State of Nature 2016: Scotland dioxide. Weather v71, no4 pp88-91 37 Scottish Government 2004. Research 51 Hastie et al, 2003. The Threat of Climate 7 Scotland’s biodiversity progress to Aichi 21 IPCC 2007. Fourth assessment report – Working Report: The Economic Impact of Game Change to Freshwater Pearl Mussel targets 2020. Interim Report 2017 https:// Group II Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. and Coarse Angling in Scotland Populations. Ambio 32(1):40-4 www.snhpresscentre.com/resources/3lfef- 22 UK Climate Projections 2018. https://www. 0uagk-5qmqq-3b8t0-41k91 38 Arctic charr, 2018. SNH https://www. 52 Hastie et al, 2003. The threat of climate change metoffice.gov.uk/research/collaboration/ukcp nature.scot/plants-animals-and-fungi/ to freshwater pearl mussel populations, AMBIO: 8 https://www.nature.scot/climate-change/ 23 UK Climate Projections 2009. http:// fish/freshwater-fish/arctic-charr A Journal of the Human Environment 32(1):40-46. climate-change-impacts-scotland ukclimateprojections-ukcp09.metoffice.gov.uk/ 39 Reist et al, 2012. Arctic charr (Salvelinus 2003 https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447-32.1.40 9 Adaptation Scotland. https://adaptationscotland. 24 Lowe et al, 2018, UKCP18 Science Overview report alpinus): a case study of the importance of 53 Cosgrove et al, 2016. The status of the freshwater org/why-adapt/impacts-scotland 25 Barnett et al, 2006. A handbook of understanding biodiversity and taxonomic pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera in 10 Settele et al, 2014. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, climate trends across Scotland. 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Maintaining northern lwec/report-cards/biodiversity-source08/ design, construction and management of peatland ecosystems in a changing paths in Scotland. SNH commissioned report climate: effects of soil moisture, drainage and drain blocking on craneflies. Global Change Biology, v17, pp 2991 – 3001 This report was commissioned by Scottish Environment LINK’s Wildlife subgroup in collaboration with WWF Scotland in 2018.

This report was authored by Tamsin Morris MSc CEcol CEnv MCIEEM, This report was reviewed by James Curran MBE.

This report should be cited as Morris, T. 2018. Scotland’s Nature on Red Alert. Scottish Environment LINK and WWF Scotland partnership.

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