Scotland's Nature on Red Alert

Scotland’s Nature on Red Alert Climate change impacts on biodiversity 4 Summary 24 Marine habitats 36 Moorland 37 Habitat changes due to Contents 7 Introduction 25 Habitat changes due to climate change climate change 8 Climate change and biodiversity 25 Temperature 38 Impacts on biodiversity 10 Vulnerability of Scotland’s 25 Sea level 38 Vegetation composition biodiversity to climate change 25 Acidification 39 Birds 11 Climate change feedback 26 Have physical changes already 39 Invertebrates 12 Scotland’s changing climate been documented? 40 Woodlands and forests 26 Temperature 14 Climate changes to date 41 Habitat changes due to 26 Acidification climate change 15 Climate change pathways 26 Sea level 42 Impacts on biodiversity 15 Case studies 26 Impacts on biodiversity 42 Slow movers 16 Freshwater habitats 26 Whales, dolphins 43 Birds 17 Habitat changes due to and porpoises 44 Plants climate change 28 Sea birds 44 Implications for tree planting 17 Temperature 28 Molluscs 45 Implications for woodland expansion 18 River levels 28 Machair 46 Other risks from climate change 18 Have physical changes already 29 Blue carbon been documented? 47 Future Outlook 30 Mountain habitats 18 River temperature 31 Habitat changes due to 18 Precipitation climate change 19 Impacts on biodiversity 31 Snow cover 19 Atlantic salmon, trout 32 Have physical changes already and Arctic charr been documented? 20 Freshwater pearl mussel 32 Snow cover 23 Birds 33 Impacts on biodiversity 23 Invertebrates 33 Loss of habitat 35 Community changes 4 5 Summary Photo Credit: Helen Todd Photo Climate change is recognised by Species that could be affected in Scotland Even though the Paris Agreement calls More needs to be done to combat this, as o many as the most serious threat include some of our most well-known for limiting temperature increase to 1.5 C, existing ambitions are not addressing the and iconic wildlife, ranging from Atlantic the current commitments submitted by impact of climate change on Scotland’s facing life on the planet today. salmon to capercaillie to the freshwater governments as part of the Paris Agreement biodiversity. A net zero target by 2050 pearl mussel. We have species such as the are estimated to result in a median increase at the earliest is critical to safeguard our Governments have responded to that Arctic charr which are at their southern limit in global temperature of 2.6 – 3.1oC by 2100. biodiversity. This needs to be accompanied threat by agreeing to long-term goals in Scotland and which may not be able to Temperature rise to this extent will cause by robust interim targets for 2030 to of keeping global temperature rise this survive rising temperatures. Other species, catastrophic damage to our biodiversity. avoid a situation where temperatures century, below 2ºC and to pursue efforts such as the kittiwake and golden plover, peak and then drop, as this would have to limit the temperature increase to Scotland’s biodiversity is already may lose their main food sources. Plant already had devastating and possibly 1.5ºC. To achieve that goal will require experiencing a changed climate, affecting communities will change as populations irreversible effects for our biodiversity. unprecedented levels of action from species abundance, distribution and of upland and alpine specialists like Alpine governments, businesses and individuals. impacting on species’ ability to adapt. The Our climate policies should also ensure lady’s mantle are reduced and lowland State of Nature 2016 report indicates that that our ecosystems are resilient enough This report sets out what has already generalist species increase. Our seas will almost one in ten Scottish species are at to continue to absorb greenhouse gases. happened to both the global and Scottish also be affected, with cold water species like risk of extinction. The long-term trends A combined approach is needed to make climate and how it might change in the white-beaked dolphin at risk of being (around 1970-2013) across three taxonomic sure we are using all the tools in our toolbox the future. It looks at the impacts of lost from our waters. Increasing acidification groups (vascular plants, butterflies, birds) to combat climate change. Scotland has that change on Scottish biodiversity of the oceans may also affect not just our indicate that nearly 54% of vascular plant the potential to be a world leader in the and brings together existing evidence wildlife, but our shellfish industries. And species (such as juniper) have shown fight against climate change – so that on five habitats, their species, and the our world-renowned salmon rivers may decline, 39% of butterfly species have future generations may continue to enjoy, future impacts of climate change. lose more fish as water temperatures shown decline, and 44% of bird species value and benefit from our biodiversity. rise and summer water levels decline. Scotland’s landscapes and wildlife are (upland species such as dotterel and curlew, diverse and beautiful. Our habitats and The ecosystem services on which society seabirds such as puffins and kittiwakes) species are of value not just in their depends will also be affected. If our have declined. Existing ambitions will own right, but also for the ecosystem peatlands dry out, they can no longer therefore not curtail the impact of climate services they support and on which store as much carbon for us and our rivers change on biodiversity in Scotland. we all depend. And yet much of this may no longer protect us from flooding if biodiversity is seriously threatened by rainfall levels rise. Over time, there is also the challenge of climate change. the potential for positive feedback within the carbon cycle to lead to an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and a worsening of the effects of climate change. 6 | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ON RED ALERT SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENT LINK AND WWF SCOTLAND | 7 Climate change is acknowledged as the A changing climate will bring yet another Introduction most serious threat facing the world today. threat to Scotland’s biodiversity. Some Global mean temperatures have already of our most iconic habitats, including risen by approximately 1oC above pre- our peatlands, uplands, coastal machair Climate change is industrial levels. At this rate, the global mean and oak woodlands have been identified temperatures can be expected to increase as particularly vulnerable to climate acknowledged as the by 1.5ºC, sometime between 2030 and change7. Habitats and species will be at 20522. At the 2015 United Nations Climate risk of direct impacts from the changing most serious threat Change Conference, delegates agreed to a physical conditions, as well as indirect 1 long-term goal (often referred to as the Paris impacts from changes in ecological facing the world today . Agreement) to keep a global temperature processes8. Some species in Scotland rise this century to well below 2oC and to will be at risk of extinction, whilst others pursue efforts to limit the temperature may be challenged by the spread of new increase to 1.5oC3. Achieving that goal will invasive species, pests and diseases9. require substantial action from all countries. Recognising the importance of climate A changing climate has the potential to change as a global and local threat, impact biodiversity, both globally and the Scottish Government introduced locally. With an increase of 2°C in global the Climate Change (Scotland) Act in mean temperature, 18% of insects, 16% of 2009. At the time, this set world-leading plants and 8% of vertebrates are projected reduction targets for greenhouse gas to lose over half of their current climatic emissions, including a target to reduce range (based on 105,000 studied species2). emissions by 80% by 2050. The Scottish At 1.5°C, the impacts affect fewer species, Government has now introduced a second with numbers declining to 6% of insects, Climate Change Bill with new targets, 8% of plants and 4% of vertebrates2. to align Scotland’s ambitions with the requirements of the Paris Agreement. Globally, biodiversity is already declining at In combination with actions from other an alarming rate. WWF’s Living Planet Index governments, the extent of the new targets estimates that populations of all vertebrates and the timescale for achieving them across the globe (for which data are will directly influence the magnitude of available) have declined by 60% since 19704. climate change impacts in the future. Biodiversity also has a key role to play This report looks at the potential impacts of in many of the ecosystem services that climate change on Scotland’s biodiversity. we depend on as humans, such as It highlights the extent of the threats and nutrient cycling and pollination. Any demonstrates how those threats increase negative impacts on our biodiversity will with increased global temperature rise. also potentially affect the availability of Case studies are provided which look those services for future generations5. at how key Scottish habitats, and the species within them, can be expected Scotland’s biodiversity is not exempt to respond to a changing climate. from this deterioration. The State of Nature Report for Scotland6 findings indicate that more than half of our plant species and over a third of our butterfly species have already declined. Photo Credit: Lister Cumming Credit: Lister Photo 8 | SCOTLAND’S NATURE ON RED ALERT SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENT LINK AND WWF SCOTLAND | 9 Climate change and biodiversity Climate change has been identified as a major threat to biodiversity on a global scale. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate A UK review which assessed over 3000 plant Change (IPCC) has stated that it expects and animal species found that 21%, or 640 climate change to be a “powerful stressor species, were at high risk of range loss under on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems a low emissions climate change scenario12.

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