the face of an ISIS attack. The long held desire for army melted away from disputed Kurdish lands in their land.Kurdsrejoicedin June2014whenIraq’s efitted fromtheinsurgents’ repeatedintrusionsinto bate existsastowhetherIraqi Kurdistanhasben- Despite ISIS’ appetiteforwantondestruction,ade- ISIS: aBlessingorCurseforKurdistan? invincibility. manpower anddeleterioustothegroup’sperceived have beenhugely costly interms of weaponsand that droveISISintobattlesagainsttheKurds hubris andamisguidedsenseofmilitarycapability But ultimatelyitmayprovetobeacombinationof mixed withsecularvalues,mayhavebeenatrigger. tist nationalism in the Islamic world, especially when lands ofISIScontrol.ISIS’ militantdislikeofsepara- tory inIraqandSyria,certainlynotintotheheart- stretched intoonlysmallportionsofArab-heldterri- threat totheCaliphate.Kurdishterritorialdesigns The Kurdspresentedlittleinthewayofastrategic and culturallifeinIraqSyria. which hassoughttoutterlydestroyKurdishpolitical and destructiveathreatastheIslamicState(ISIS), history, theKurdshaveneverfacedquiteasvirulent Arab andPersianrulers.Despitealongbloody nation and genocide atthe hands ofvarious Turkish, the Kurdshavesufferedpoliticalalienation,discrimi- Divided between four countries by Imperial powers, Kurdistan hasfacednumeroustragediesinitstime. and SecurityStudies(RUSI), Qatar Head ofRoyal UnitedServicesInstituteforDefence Research Fellow MiddleEast Michael Stephens Facing ISIS: The Kurds ofSyriaandIraq Strategics Sectors|Security&Politics Panorama having achieved relativeautonomouspower since cally developedthantheir Iraqi brethren,andonly Syrian Kurdsintheirarmed struggle. Lesseconomi- the guiseofOperationInherent Resolve,toback for thefirsttimebringingWestern airpower,under in particularfocusedminds on theKurdishstruggle, istan. The siege of the Syrian border town of Kobani not just for Syria itself, but also for the future of Kurd- (known asRojava)haveprovenadefiningmoment Similarly, ISISattacks against Syria’s Kurdishregion and byretreatingISISforces. rendered uninhabitablebythedestructionofwar front linesofKurdishand ISIS fighters have been Additionally, numerous towns and villages alongthe regional government’sresourcestobreakingpoint. gees from Syria and the rest of Iraq, straining the tacks. Theregionhastakeninsome1.6millionrefu- injured defendingtheirlinesfromrepeatedISISat- 1,200 men andwomen,over5,900havebeen price itispayinghigh.ThePeshmergahavelost may wellhavegainedthelanditdreamedof,but State thatiscomingintobeinginIraq.Kurdistan placed with unease about the future of the proto- But theraucousoptimismofthattimehasbeenre- Baghdad’s control. the preference in the tential conflictwiththeIraqiState,andthisdespite all butguaranteed,beitfromISISoranypo- tional backingthesecurityofKurdistanisvirtually France, theUKandGermany. Withsuchinterna- ternational actors, most notably the United States, security cooperationwithanumberofimportantin- Kurdistan, aswellbringingtheKurdsintoclose in Iraq haveprovidedterritorialbenefitsforIraqi thorities inBaghdad.Assuch,theISISadvances puted betweenthemselvesandthecentralIraqiau- the Peshmergamovedtosecureareaslongdis- Kurdish controloverKirkukwasfinallyrealisedas West for a unified Iraq under

IEMed. Mediterranean Yearbook 2015 233 Strategics Sectors | Security & Politics Panorama IEMed. Mediterranean Yearbook 2015 234 Strategics Sectors | Security & Politics Panorama controlled territory. national budgethaveledto a cashcrisisinKurdish- pay theKRGitsallotted17% monthlyshareofthe Iraq. Failures by the central authorities in Baghdad to dramatically asaresultof instability intherestof on theKRGeconomy. IraqiKurdistanhassuffered lives of Iraq’s Kurds, in particular through its effects The fightagainstISIShasdeeplyaffectedthedaily Economic Challenges drags onindefinitely. doubtedly havetocontinuefightingasthewar Syrian regimelooktocapitalise,Syria’sKurdsun- such astheal-Qaeda-linkedJabhatalNusraand treating fromterritoriesitonceheld,andfactions from beingover.AsISISweakensmilitarily, re- future, especiallyasthewarinSyriastilllooksfar entities lackingcontiguityandadefinedpolitical tons ofAfrin,Kobani andJazeeraremainseparate little workinginfrastructure.Rojava’sthreecan- return toatownriddenwithhiddenbombsand are unsureastowhethertheywillbeallowed the majorityofitspeoplehavefledtoTurkey and tation causedbyISIS.80%ofKobani liesinruins; it facesnumerouschallenges,notleastthedevas- As Rojavacomestolifeasasocio-politicalentity the UKandGermany notably theUnitedStates,France, important internationalactors,most cooperation withanumberof Kurds intoclosesecurity Kurdistan, aswellbringingthe provided territorialbenefitsforIraqi The ISISadvancesinIraqhave for survival. alition thattheywillnotbeleftaloneintheirstruggle effectively givenassurancesbytheinternationalco- Syrian Kurds have been gional Government (KRG), same level of Western supportastheKurdistan Re- result of ISISattacks. Although not assured ofthe world stage asa political actor is almost entirely as a 2012, SyrianKurdistan’smereemergenceonthe my inthenear future. Syrian Kurds’ abilitytopushforcompleteautono- Damascus toprintmoney, whichhugelyaffects quently, thefateofRojava istiedtotheabilityof on thecapitalcityforinflows ofcash,and,conse- istration is, like Iraqi Kurdistan, highly dependent system beingputintoplacebythecantonadmin- need ifitisnotexported.Thehighlycentralised potential toprovideup30%ofSyria’stotal abundant cereal crop production, which has the tity. Thisdespiteitsplentiful oil reservesand ic systemorexportgoodsinanysubstantialquan- struggled to form any sort of functioning econom- ited bordercrossingintotheKRG,Rojavahas and byISISregionstothesouth,withalim- areas ofSyria,effectivelyblockadedbyTurkey mous project.Burdenedbyrefugeesfromother ISIS hasexposedcracksinthenascentautono- ble. Theexistentialnatureofthethreatposedby In Rojava,Syria’sKurds have also begun togrum- Baghdad. which affordthemgreaterfiscalautonomyfrom ity of Iraqi Kurdistan to put into place structures competence ofpoliticalleadership,andtheinabil- there isdeepangerabouttheinefficiencyandin- have pulled together during thistimeof crisis, the fragilityofKRG,andwhileIraq’sKurds ent statewillbelonglasting.Thewarhasexposed Kurdistan’s drivetoonedaybecomeanindepend- that may take many years, and the damage to expense bill.Itwillbeaslowrebuildingprocess dad willnotcovertheregion’s$1.2-billionmonthly Kurds, and restarting regular payments from Bagh- play theirpartinpreventingaquickfixforIraq’s bad fiscalmanagementandtumblingoilpricesall The solutiontotheproblemiscomplex;corruption, to shrinkrapidly. effect causingwhatlittleprivatesectorthatexists lack ofmoneyinthesystemleadingtoacascade proven devastatingtothearea’seconomy, the working populationisinthepublicsector,thishas working under ISIS. Given that 70% of the KRG’s salaries to Iraqi government workers in Mosul, Baghdad hascontinuallyensuredthepaymentof ries missedsomefourmonthsago.Thiswhile by Baghdadthisyearhaveonlymadeupforsala- months, andthethreeincompletepaymentsmade gone unpaid,sometimesforasmuchsix Salaries ofcivilservantsandPeshmergashave often starklyreflected. aspora, where political divides in the homeland are the firsttimesuchunityhas been observedinthedi- whose factiontheystoodalongside. Thisisperhaps to demonstrate againstISISwith scantthoughtasto for each other’sarmedforces and joinedtogether Europe andtheUSwhocollectedaidpackages This unitywasalsodisplayedbydiasporaKurdsin international border attacking Kurdsonbothsidesofthe metamorphosis asaresultofISIS have undergoneastrange The problemsofintra-Kurdishrivalry Kurdistan’s fourconstituentparts. if evertherewasoneofincreasingunityamong fighting inIraqalongsidePeshmergaforces,asign Iranians, Turks andSyrianshavealsobeenseen of thePeople’sProtectionUnits(YPG)inSyria,and Kurds havebeenidentifiedfightingamongtheranks ditionally, hundreds of Turkish, Iraqi and Iranian into Kobani tohelpdefendthetownfromISIS.Ad- 150 Peshmerga, withTurkey’s permission,crossed across Turkey, IraqandSyriacheeredwhen Kobani withPeshmergafighters.IndeedKurds leading tocallsfromamongIraqiKurdssupport Kobani to repel repeated ISIS offensives, eventually their Syrianbrothersfoughtdesperatebattlesin Kurdish identity. Iraq’sKurdswatchedanxiouslyas This has translatedintoadeepeningsense of pan- borders. the sameentity, unboundbystateorgeographical Kurdish history that Kurds have faced a threatfrom Syrian andIraqiKurdsrepresentsthefirsttimein border. IndeedtheferocityofISISattackagainst attacking Kurdsonbothsidesoftheinternational gone astrangemetamorphosisasresultofISIS But theproblemsofintra-Kurdishrivalryhaveunder- Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)arenotablypoor. and themost powerful party in IraqiKurdistan the Syrian KurdistantheDemocraticUnionParty(PYD), divisions, andrelationsbetweenthemainpartyin The Kurds are infamous for their plethora of political of aPan-Kurdish Identity andtheGrowth Intra-Kurdish Politics and Iraqhave survivedtheworstof ISISon- months ago,theautonomous projectsinbothRojava The futurefor the Kurdslooksbrighterthan it did six The Future operation. their ownpopulationsforcloserintegrationandco- both understandandreflectthegrowingdesireof The questionwillbewhetherthepoliticianscan Iraq and Syriathereiscompetitionforinfluence. and KDPwillnodoubtcontinue,insideboth present. ThepowerstrugglesbetweenthePYD val Kurdishfactionswillberesolvedisunclearat How theproblemsofcontestedspacebetweenri- parties alignedagainstit. a siege mentality, feeling surrounded on all sides by party thePUK,KDPhasadoptedsomethingof working relationswithIraqiKurdistan’sothermain problem inthefuture.GiventhatPYDmaintains cially whenISISstillthreatens,itdoespresenta Kurds would go to war over their differences, espe- the PYD.AlthoughitisunlikelythatSyrianandIraqi refugees fromRojava,mostofwhomareloyalto Kurdistan housessome600,000SyrianKurdish tan. ThisisparticularlysignificantgiventhatIraqi as thedominantplayerinitsownregionofKurdis- clear astowhethertheKDPcanfullyreassertitself Iraqi Kurdistanaredecidedlymixed,anditis un- also becausetheloyaltiesofsomepopulationsin tion witha lot ofgunsandan organised army, but KDP, notonlybecausetheyarearivalKurdishfac- tional consciousnesspresentsachallengeforthe As such the rise of the Syrian Kurds in the interna- security. without clearjurisdictionastowhoisinchargeof YPG, PKKandPeshmergaforcesallpatrolthearea of KDPPeshmergaforces.Atthetimewriting, were abletosecureareasofSinjarintheabsence forces astheirsaviours,andtheYPGPKK cals inthearealargelyviewSyrianKurdish following a withdrawal by Peshmerga forces. Lo- at thehandsofIslamicStateinAugust2014 Sinjar, wheretheYazidi populationfacedslaughter still rundeep. Thisismostdemonstrablyshownin the PKK-affiliated PYD,andthepro-Turkish KDP curity cooperationinKobani theproblemsbetween But despitethecloseremotionallinksandse-

IEMed. Mediterranean Yearbook 2015 235 Strategics Sectors | Security & Politics Panorama IEMed. Mediterranean Yearbook 2015 236 Strategics Sectors | Security & Politics Panorama The biggestthreattheweakeningofISISposesto ways thatcounterKDPinfluenceanddominance. ances ofpowerinsideKurdistanhavechangedin trol andterritoryhavechangedhandsthebal- altered bythemovementofmillions,politicalcon- 2013. Thedemographicsoftheregionhavebeen on thedefinitepathwaytostatehoodthatitwasin changed andtheonceconfidentKRGisnolonger tion ISIShasleftbehind.HoweverKurdistan stable incomeandresourcestotacklethedevasta- the priceofoilwillriseagainintime,offeringmore But citiescanberebuilt,refugeesrehousedand together the gluethatheldKurds isthatitremoves areas asrevenge), infiltration intoKurdish-controlled apart frompotentialterrorist of ISIS posestotheKurds,(quite The biggestthreattheweakening ground cansecurevictory, albeitatacost. shown thatwithWestern backing,localforcesonthe fraying. ISISlossesinKobani, SinjarandTikrithave Iraq hasfinished,andtheedgesofCaliphateare The blitzkriegthatsawISISsweepacrossSyriaand slaught, althoughtheyhavebeenseverelyweakened. declaration ofself-rule. because thereisnootheroptionavailablebutthefull have become independent not through choice, but and no rivals to match them, the Kurds will find they inside theirborders.Atsuchatime,withISISgone can effectivelyextendanyfiscalorpoliticalcontrol for thedayinwhichneitherDamascusnorBaghdad up theirownstructuresofgovernmentinpreparation it islikelythattheKurdswillfocusonquietlybuilding The futureofbothSyriaandIraqisstillunknown, Iraqi politicalconsensus. cal participationforKurdsinwhatremainsofthe the distributionofoilrevenuesandlevelpoliti- over thestatusofterritoriesheldbyPeshmerga, other handfacealongstruggleaheadwithBaghdad either militiaorregimeretribution.IraqiKurdsonthe from power,allthewhilenotbecomingtargetof against themyriadofforcesdeterminedtoremoveit relationship withAssad’sregimeasitbattlesback for some time. Syrian Kurds mustnegotiate a fraying capital citieswillkeeptheKurdsbusilyengaged It ismostlikelythatproblemswiththeirrespective ering andinfightingwillbeginagain. build theirfuturecooperatively, orwhetherthebick to knowwhetherKurdsreallycanworktogether er. Onlyafterthedusthassettledwillitbepossible that it removes the glue that held the Kurds togeth- is tration intoKurdish-controlledareasasrevenge), the Kurds,(quiteapartfrompotentialterroristinfil- -