Thomas J. Christensen's CV
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Forecasting China's Future," the National Interest (Fall 1986)
FORECASTING CHINA’S FUTURE: EXPERTS AND UNCERTAINTY Roger Irvine Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Centre for Asian Studies School of Social Sciences and Humanities University of Adelaide October 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................ iii ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................ vi DECLARATION ....................................................................................................... vii ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................ viii SPELLING OF CHINESE NAMES ........................................................................... ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................... x 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Challenges and Benefits of Forecasting ........................................................ 1 1.2 China Watchers and Forecasting ................................................................... 3 1.3 Dominance and Collapse ............................................................................... 6 1.4 Experts and Uncertainty ................................................................................ 7 1.5 Overview ...................................................................................................... -
The Challenging Future of Strategic Planning in Foreign Policy
01-0306-8 ch1.qxd 3/26/09 2:44 PM Page 3 daniel w. drezner 1 The Challenging Future of Strategic Planning in Foreign Policy “Avoid trivia.” —Secretary of State George Marshall’s advice to George Kennan, the first director of policy planning Strategic planning for American foreign policy is dead, dying, or moribund. This, at least, has been the assessment of several commentators and policy- makers in recent years.1 Michèle Flournoy and Shawn Brimley observed in 2006, “For a country that continues to enjoy an unrivaled global position, it is both remarkable and disturbing that the United States has no truly effective strategic planning process for national security.”2 At an academic conference in 2007, a former director of the State Department’s policy planning staff complained that, “six years after 9/11, we still don’t have a grand strategy.” Aaron Friedberg, who was director of policy planning for Vice President Richard Cheney, writes in this volume, “The U.S. government has lost the capacity to conduct serious, sustained national strategic planning.” Admiral William Fallon, the CENTCOM commander until the spring of 2008, told the New York Times that the United States would need to focus more on policy planning: “We need to have a well-thought-out game plan for engagement in the world that we adjust regularly and that has some system of checks and bal- ances built into it.”3 In this volume, Council on Foreign Relations president Richard Haass argues that the United States has “squandered” its post–cold war opportunity, concluding, “Historians will not judge the United States well for how it has used these twenty years.” These sorts of laments have become common in the past decade, in no small part because of the foreign policy planning of the administrations of Bill 3 01-0306-8 ch1.qxd 3/26/09 2:44 PM Page 4 4 The Challenging Future of Strategic Planning Clinton and George W. -
Self-Study Syllabus on Chinese Foreign Policy
Self-Study Syllabus on Chinese Foreign Policy www.mandarinsociety.org PrefaceAbout this syllabus with China’s rapid economic policymakers in Washington, Tokyo, Canberra as the scale and scope of China’s current growth, increasing military and other capitals think about responding to involvement in Africa, China’s first overseas power,Along and expanding influence, Chinese the challenge of China’s rising power. military facility in Djibouti, or Beijing’s foreign policy is becoming a more salient establishment of the Asian Infrastructure concern for the United States, its allies This syllabus is organized to build Investment Bank (AIIB). One of the challenges and partners, and other countries in Asia understanding of Chinese foreign policy in that this has created for observers of China’s and around the world. As China’s interests a step-by-step fashion based on one hour foreign policy is that so much is going on become increasingly global, China is of reading five nights a week for four weeks. every day it is no longer possible to find transitioning from a foreign policy that was In total, the key readings add up to roughly one book on Chinese foreign policy that once concerned principally with dealing 800 pages, rarely more than 40–50 pages will provide a clear-eyed assessment of with the superpowers, protecting China’s for a night. We assume no prior knowledge everything that a China analyst should know. regional interests, and positioning China of Chinese foreign policy, only an interest in as a champion of developing countries, to developing a clearer sense of how China is To understanding China’s diplomatic history one with a more varied and global agenda. -
Beyond Engagement? Rethinking America's China Policy
JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY CHINA, 2016 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2015.1132962 BOOK REVIEW Beyond Engagement? Rethinking America's China Policy The China Challenge: shaping the choices of a rising power, by Thomas Christensen, New York, W.W. Norton, 2015. The Hundred Year War: China’s secret strategy to replace America as the global superpower, by Michael Pillsbury, New York, Henry Holt & Co, 2015. Strategic Reassurance and Resolve: US China relations in the twenty-first century, by James Steinberg and Michael O’Hanlon, Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press, 2014. Obama and China’s Rise: an insider’s account of America’s Asia strategy, by Jeffery Bader, Washington, DC, Brookings Institution Press, 2012. A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the struggle for mastery in Asia, by Aaron Friedberg, New York, W.W. Norton, 2011. Rethinking engagement Since the Nixon Administration, the US strategy towards China has been predicated on the assumption that if the bilateral relationship is properly managed conflict can be avoided. Many Americans across the political spectrum believe that through engagement the US can reduce the chances that China will become aggressive (Bader, Obama and China’s Rise, pp. 146–147). Yet, even as US policymakers have sought to integrate China and use cooperation to shape its choices, Beijing’s increasing bellicosity has raised concerns in Washington and beyond that engagement may not prevent conflict. For five decades, the US has aided China economically, rhetorically and politically with the underly- ing objective to mollify, and if possible, avoid, the rising state’s propensity to pursue revisionism using force. -
Caitlin Talmadge's CV
CAITLIN TALMADGE, PH.D. Associate Professor of Security Studies, Georgetown University Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy, The Brookings Institution Research Affiliate, Security Studies Program, Massachusetts Institute of Technology [email protected] • www.caitlintalmadge.com • @ProfTalmadge ACADEMIC EMPLOYMENT GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY Associate Professor of Security Studies, The Walsh School of Foreign Service, 2018-present Concentration Chair, Military Operations, Security Studies Program, 2018-present THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, 2011-2018 Member, Institute for Security & Conflict Studies EDUCATION THE MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Ph.D., Political Science, 2011 Member, Security Studies Program HARVARD COLLEGE A.B., summa cum laude, Government, 2003 Phi Beta Kappa, 2002 BOOKS & MONOGRAPH 2020. U.S. Defense Politics: The Origins of Security Policy, fourth edition, with Harvey Sapolsky and Eugene Gholz (Routledge, under contract). 2015. The Dictator’s Army: Battlefield Effectiveness in Authoritarian Regimes (Cornell University Press). Winner of the 2017 Best Book Award, International Security Studies Section, International Studies Association Named Foreign Affairs’ 2016 Best Book in Security Reviewed in Foreign Affairs, Perspectives on Politics, Journal of Politics, Journal of Strategic Studies, H-Diplo International Security Studies Forum Roundtable 2006. U.S. Defense Mobilization in the Aftermath of a Nuclear Terrorist Attack (Cambridge, MA: The Long Term Strategy Project). PEER-REVIEWED JOURNAL ARTICLES 2019. “Emerging Technology and Intra-war Escalation Risks: Evidence from the Cold War, Implications for Today,” Journal of Strategic Studies, 42(6): 864-887. 2019. “Emerging Technologies and Strategic Stability,” with Todd Sechser and Neil Narang, Journal of Strategic Studies 42(6): 727-735. Talmadge, p. -
The Taiwan Relations Act—Legal Foundations of Political Entrenchment
The Taiwan Relations Act—Legal Foundations of Political Entrenchment Jacques deLisle, University of Pennsylvania and Foreign Policy Research Institute Context I—Retrospect The Taiwan Relations Act was created in a moment of great peril for Taiwan, yet it has been an especially durable and fundamental pillar of Taiwan’s security for more than one-third of a century. There are many reasons that this has been so. But the TRA’s legal aspects are a significant if somewhat esoteric part of the explanation for its remarkable success and utility for Taiwan. The TRA was adopted in a context that bode very ill for the prospects of a functionally independent and relatively secure Taiwan. The US’s termination of the mutual defense treaty with the Republic of China undercut the principal external guarantee of Taiwan’s security. The U.S.’s severing of diplomatic relations with the ROC was one in a series of blows to the ROC’s status in the international system. It came less than a decade after Taipei had lost the Chinese seat at the United Nations to Beijing and amid many governments’ moves to switch recognition from the ROC to the PRC. Although formal and arguably mostly symbolic (given that many states continued to maintain robust informal, functional ties), these shifts were potentially dangerous for Taiwan. Recognition and diplomatic relations are indicia of the capacity to engage in relations with states, which in turn is a key criterion for statehood or state-status under international law and, more importantly, in the order of international politics which international law, in this respect, largely tracks and reinforces. -
University of Florida Thesis Or Dissertation Formatting
GRINDING IT OUT: NEOCONSERVATIVES, STRATEGIC ARMS, AND PROTECTING AMERICA, 1968-1980 By ROGER E. CAREY A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2014 1 © 2014 Roger E. Carey 2 This dissertation is dedicated to Coralyn, with great love. 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS To paraphrase some PBS programs, this dissertation was made possible by the contributions of many people over the past several years. The work here is mine, and mine alone, along with any errors of fact or judgment. To the extent that this study represents an original contribution to historical knowledge, several individuals and groups supported me during my research and writing. I want to begin by thanking my dissertation advisor, Matthew F. Jacobs. He has been a constant source of encouragement and advice, putting up with my slow pace and challenging me to think more closely and more deeply about what I was trying to argue. At each step of the process, his sage advice and direction have guided my efforts to write the best work I could generate. I also am grateful for the contributions of my committee, William A. Link, Frederick Gregory, Ido Oren, and Norman J.W. Goda, and my original advisor, Robert McMahon (now at Ohio State University). Finally, I owe a debt to Joseph “Andy” Fry, my M.A. advisor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, who started me on the road of historical inquiry. My research for this project was greatly facilitated by two grants: a Moody Grant from the LBJ Foundation at the Lyndon Baines Johnson Library and Museum in Austin, TX, and a Milbauer Grant-in-Aid from the Milbauer Program in Southern History at the University of Florida. -
Democracy and Victory Michael C. Desch Why Regime Type Hardly Matters
Democracy and Victory Michael C. Desch Why Regime Type Hardly Matters Whether democracies are more or less likely to win wars has long been a contentious issue. The Greek general Thucydides’ chronicle of the defeat of democratic Athens in its twenty-four-year struggle with authoritarian Sparta in The Peloponnesian War, particularly his account of the Sicilian debacle, remains the classic indictment of the inability of democracies to prepare for and ªght wars.1 Indeed, for most of Western history, pessimism dominated thinking about democracy and war. “Democratic defeatists,” from the French aristocrat Alexis de Tocqueville to mid-twentieth-century realists such as E.H. Carr, George Kennan, and Walter Lippmann, believed that democracy was a decided liability in preparing for and ªghting wars. Particularly during the Cold War, the pessimistic perspec- tive on the ªghting power of democracies was dominant.2 Even leaders of the free world, such as John F. Kennedy, believed that when democracy “competes with a system of government...built primarily for war, it is at a disadvan- tage.”3 Despite the end of the Cold War, a few Cassandras remain concerned that democracies are unprepared to meet the next major military threat from authoritarian states such as China or international terrorist organizations such 4 asDemocracy and al-Qaeda. Victory Not everyone shared this pessimism, however. The Greek historian Herod- otus argued that democracy increased military effectiveness: “As long as the Michael C. Desch is Professor and Associate Director of -
Asia Policy 14, No. 1 (2019)
the national bureau of asian research 14 1 asia policy a u s volume 14 number 1 i january 2019 a special issue p o On the U.S.-India Partnership l India and the United States i Walter C. Ladwig III and Anit Mukherjee (guest editors) c South Asia y Constantino Xavier Southeast Asia january 2019 january Walter C. Ladwig III and Anit Mukherjee The Indo-Pacific Sinderpal Singh Iran Sumitha Narayanan Kutty Defense Cooperation Cara Abercrombie roundtable Japan’s Relations in Northeast Asia under Shinzo Abe James D.J. Brown, Shin Kawashima, June Teufel Dreyer, Yoshihide Soeya, Tomohiko Taniguchi the national bureau of asian research 1414 ne 42nd street, suite 300 book review roundtable seatthetl enational, washi nbureaugton 98105 http://asiapolicy.nbr.org asian research httofp://www.nbr.org Anthony Ware and Costas Laoutides’s http://asiapolicy.nbr.org Myanmar’s ‘Rohingya’ Conflict asia policy • http://asiapolicy.nbr.org • a peer-reviewed journal devoted to bridging the gap between academic research and policymaking on issues related to the Asia-Pacific editors C. Christine Fair and Mark W. Frazier editors Georgetown University The New School Jessica Keough managing editor Joshua Ziemkowski copy and style editor Sophia Ahn editorial assistant Dylan Plung publications intern editorial advisory committee Bhubhindar Singh Matthew Sussex Michael Wills S. Rajaratnam School of National Security College, The National Bureau of International Studies Australian National University Asian Research Mark Frazier C. Christine Fair The New School Georgetown -
China Perspectives, 2010/2 | 2010 Nancy Bernkopf Tucker, Strait Talk: United States-Taiwan Relations and the Cr
China Perspectives 2010/2 | 2010 Gao Xingjian and the Role of Chinese Literature Today Nancy Bernkopf Tucker, Strait Talk: United States- Taiwan Relations and The Crisis with China Jean-Pierre Cabestan Édition électronique URL : http://journals.openedition.org/chinaperspectives/5293 DOI : 10.4000/chinaperspectives.5293 ISSN : 1996-4617 Éditeur Centre d'étude français sur la Chine contemporaine Édition imprimée Date de publication : 1 juin 2010 ISSN : 2070-3449 Référence électronique Jean-Pierre Cabestan, « Nancy Bernkopf Tucker, Strait Talk: United States-Taiwan Relations and The Crisis with China », China Perspectives [En ligne], 2010/2 | 2010, mis en ligne le 05 août 2010, consulté le 24 septembre 2020. URL : http://journals.openedition.org/chinaperspectives/5293 ; DOI : https:// doi.org/10.4000/chinaperspectives.5293 Ce document a été généré automatiquement le 24 septembre 2020. © All rights reserved Nancy Bernkopf Tucker, Strait Talk: United States-Taiwan Relations and The Cr... 1 Nancy Bernkopf Tucker, Strait Talk: United States-Taiwan Relations and The Crisis with China Jean-Pierre Cabestan 1 Nancy Bernkopf Tucker, Strait Talk: United States-Taiwan Relations and The Crisis with China, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., 2009, xiv, 390 pp. 2 This is a weighty addition to the collection of books dealing with Washington-Taipei ties as well as relations across the Taiwan Strait. Not because of its size, though: its 280 pages of text, albeit dense, make for an agreeable read. With more than 50 pages of notes and an extensive bibliography, Nancy Tucker’s work makes a decisive contribution to understanding the complex and often conflicting relations between the United States and Taiwan since1971, when Nixon and Kissinger decided to “sacrifice” Taiwan on the altar of rapprochement and gradual normalisationwith the People’s Republic of China. -
China–Taiwan: US Debates
150 Nancy Bernkopf Tucker China–Taiwan: US Debates and Policy Choices ○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○ Nancy Bernkopf Tucker Confrontation in the Taiwan Strait comprises the single most dangerous dispute for the US in the world today. Although Indians and Pakistanis risk nuclear conflagration in South Asia, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is ambitious and aggressive and the North Koreans desperate and unscrupulous, it is only in the case of China and Taiwan that Washington could confront directly a major power with a huge military establishment in a colossally destructive war that would have repercussions for decades. That menace became palpable for Americans outside the community of China scholars for the first time in March 1996, when President Bill Clinton dispatched two aircraft-carrier battle groups to the Taiwan area as Chinese missiles fell into the waters just off Taiwan’s coast. The challenge from Beijing in 1996 came as a shock to Americans, who rarely pay attention to developments in Taiwan and think of China, when they do so at all, in the context of trade and human-rights issues. Few reporters, members of Congress or even administration officials knew fully what the dis- pute entailed, or what the stakes might be if a crisis developed.1 This ignorance, as much as cherished principles of ‘self-determination’ and ‘freedom’, first made possible, and then unwittingly aggravated, the situation. The confrontation’s immediate trigger was the US decision to grant a visa to Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui for a private visit to his former university, Cornell in New York state, in June 1995. The visa was authorised despite the Clinton administration’s prior assurances to Beijing that it would be refused. -
Dangerous Strait: the U.S.-Taiwan-China Crisis
Issues & Studies 41, no. 4 (December 2005): 251-269. BOOK REVIEW Dangerous Strait: The U.S.-Taiwan-China Crisis EDITED BY NANCY BERNKOPF TUCKER New York: Columbia University Press, 2005. ISBN: 0-231-13564-5; 288 pages, 14 tables, US$39.50. * * * The Strait Can Still Be Dangerous, Despite the Easing of Tension CHEN-SHEN J. YEN Editor, Issues & Studies A Welcome Antidote to "National Identity and Cross-Strait Fatigue" DAFYDD FELL London School of Asian and African Studies Traversing the Dangerous Waters GANG LIN School of International and Public Affairs Shanghai Jiao Tong University December 2005 251 ISSUES & STUDIES The Strait Can Still Be Dangerous, Despite the Easing of Tension CHEN-SHEN J. YEN Relations across the Taiwan Strait seem to have a life of their 評 own. Outside forces can define what cross-Strait relations should be and the authorities on either side of the Strait may have their own version, but still a dynamism exists that cannot be easily reined in or tamed. When President Chen Shui-bian (陳 水 扁 ) decided, for electoral reasons, to hold a referendum on arms procurement along with the presi- dential election of 2004, the move caused alarm to both Beijing and Wash- ington. Even though the United States made clear its reservations about such a dangerous move that might be seen as a unilateral change of the status quo, Chen was determined to call attention to the missile threat from China. He hoped that by so doing he would encourage the electorate to vote for him rather than the opposition which would be seen as more likely to take a conciliatory stance toward Beijing.