GEORGE W. BUSH AND EAST ASIA: A FIRST TERM ASSESSMENT Edited by Robert M. Hathaway and Wilson Lee Asia Program GEORGE W. BUSH AND EAST ASIA: A FIRST TERM ASSESSMENT Essays by: Richard W. Baker Chan Heng Chee Catharin E. Dalpino Evelyn Goh Harry Harding Jia Qingguo James A. Kelly Ilsu Kim James A. Leach Koji Murata Jonathan D. Pollack Robert Sutter Nancy Bernkopf Tucker Jusuf Wanandi Edited by: Robert M. Hathaway Wilson Lee ©2005 Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, D.C. www.wilsoncenter.org WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS Lee H. Hamilton, President and Director BOARD OF TRUSTEES Joseph B. Gildenhorn, Chair; David A. Metzner, Vice Chair. Public Members: James H. Billington, The Librarian of Congress; Bruce Cole, Chairman, National Endowment for the Humanities; Michael O. Leavitt, The Secretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; Condoleezza Rice, The Secretary, U.S. Department of State; Lawrence M. Small, The Secretary, Smithsonian Institution; Margaret Spellings, The Secretary, U.S. Department of Education; Allen Weinstein, Archivist of the United States Private Citizen Members: Joseph A. Cari, Jr., Carol Cartwright, Robin Cook, Donald E. Garcia, Bruce S. Gelb, Charles L. Glazer, Tami Longaberge WILSON COUNCIL Bruce S. Gelb, President; Elias F. Aburdene, Jennifer Acker, Charles S. Ackerman, B. B. Andersen, Russell Anmuth, Cyrus A. Ansary, Lawrence E Bathgate, II, Theresa Behrendt, John Beinecke, Joseph C. Bell, Steven Alan Bennett, Stuart Bernstein, Rudy Boschwitz, A. Oakley Brooks, Donald A. Brown, Melva Bucksbaum, Richard Burnham, Nicola L. Caiola, Albert V. Casey, Mark Chandler, Peter B. Clark, Melvin Cohen, William T. Coleman, Jr., David M. Crawford, Jr., Michael D. DiGiacomo, Sam Donaldson, Beth Dozoretz, Elizabeth Dubin, F. Samuel Eberts, III, I Steven Edelson, Mark Epstein, Melvyn J. Estrin, Susan R. Farber, Julie Finley, Joseph H. Flom, John H. Foster, Charles Fox, Barbara Hackman Franklin, Norman Freidkin, John H. French II, Morton Funger, Gregory M. Gallo, Chris G. Gardiner, Alma Gildenhorn, David F. Girard-diCarlo, Michael Goldberg, Roy Goodman, Gretchen Gorog, William E. Grayson, Ronald Greenberg, Raymond A. Guenter, Cheryl F. Halpern, Edward L. Hardin, Jr., John L. Howard, Darrell E. Issa, Jerry Jasinowski, Brenda LaGrange Johnson, Shelly Kamins, Jim Kaufman, Edward W. Kelley Jr., Anastasia D. Kelly, Christopher J. Kennan, Willem Kooyker, Steven Kotler, Markos Kounalakis, William H. Kremer, James Langdon, Raymond Learsy, Dennis LeVett, Francine Levinson, Harold O. Levy, Frederic V. Malek, David S. Mandel, Jeffrey A. Marcus, John Mason, Jay Mazur, Robert McCarthy, Linda McCausland, Stephen G. McConahey, Donald F. McLellan, Charles McVean, J. Kenneth Menges, Jr., Kathryn Mosbacher, Jeremiah L. Murphy, Martha Twitchell Muse, John E. Osborn, Paul Hae Park, Gerald L. Parsky, Jeanne L. Phillips, Michael J. Polenske, Donald Robert Quartel, Jr., Bruce Ratner, Larry D. Richman, Carlyn Ring, Edwin Robbins, Juan Sabater, Roger Sant, Alan M. Schwartz, Timothy R. Scully, J. Michael Shepherd, George P. Shultz, Raja W. Sidawi, Kenneth Siegel, Ron Silver, John Sitilides, William A. Slaughter, James H. Small, Shawn Smealie, Gordon V. Smith, Thomas F. Stephenson, Norma Kline Tiefel, Mark C. Treanor, Anthony Viscogliosi, Christine M. Warnke, Ruth Westheimer, Pete Wilson, Deborah L. Wince-Smith, Herbert S. Winokur, Jr., Paul Martin Wolff, Joseph Zappala, Richard S Ziman, Nancy M. Zirkin ABOUT THE CENTER The Center is the living memorial of the United States of America to the nation’s twenty-eighth president, Woodrow Wilson. Congress established the Woodrow Wilson Center in 1968 as an international institute for advanced study, “symbolizing and strengthening the fruitful relation- ship between the world of learning and the world of public affairs.” The Center opened in 1970 under its own board of trustees. In all its activities the Woodrow Wilson Center is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization, sup- ported financially by annual appropriations from Congress, and by the contributions of founda- tions, corporations, and individuals. Conclusions or opinions expressed in Center publications and programs are those of the authors and speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Center staff, fellows, trustees, advisory groups, or any individuals or organizations that pro- vide financial support to the Center. | iv | TABLE OF CONTENTS Glossary vii Introduction 1 Robert M. Hathaway George W.Bush and Asia: An Assessment 15 James A. Kelly Change and Continuity in the Bush Administration’s 31 Asia Policy Harry Harding The Bush Administration and East Asia: 45 Under the Shadow of the Security Cloud Jusuf Wanandi Sustained U.S. Leadership in Asia 59 Robert Sutter Bush Administration Policy in Asia 2001-2004: 79 Second Thoughts and Second Fronts Richard W.Baker George W. Bush and Asia: Retrospect and Prospect 93 Chan Heng Chee The Bush Administration and East Asia: Does the 99 United States Need a New Regional Strategy? Jonathan D. Pollack | v | Partners or Competitors: A Choice to Be Made 117 Jia Qingguo Balancing Act: Bush, Beijing and Taipei 131 Nancy Bernkopf Tucker The U.S.-Japan Security Relationship: A Japanese View 145 Koji Murata President Bush and North Korea 157 Ilsu Kim Bush in Southeast Asia:Widening Gyres 171 Catharin E. Dalpino The Bush Administration and Southeast 183 Asian Regional Security Strategies Evelyn Goh A Congressional Perspective on Asia and the Pacific 195 James A. Leach Timeline 215 | vi | GLOSSARY APEC – Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ARF – ASEAN Regional Forum ASEAN – Association of Southeast Asian Nations. ASEAN comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar/Burma, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. ASEAN + 3 – ASEAN plus China, Japan and South Korea BSE – bovine spongiform encephalopathy (mad cow disease) CBM – confidence-building measure CINCPAC – Commander in Chief, U.S. Pacific Fleet CSCAP – Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific DPJ – Democratic Party of Japan DoD – Department of Defense (United States) DPP – Democratic Progressive Party (Taiwan) DPRK – Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) EAI – Enterprise for ASEAN Initiative EP-3 – a U.S. Navy reconnaissance plane EU – European Union FDI – foreign direct investment FTA – free trade agreement GOP – Grand Old Party, nickname for the U.S. Republican Party GWOT – Global War on Terrorism G8 – group of eight industrialized nations. The G8 comprises the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, and Russia. | vii | Glossary IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency IMET – International Military Education and Training IPR – intellectual property rights LDP – Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) MCA – Millennium Challenge Account NATO – North Atlantic Treaty Organization NPT – Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty NSC – National Security Council (United States) PRC – People’s Republic of China PSI – Proliferation Security Initiative RMB – renminbi, the Chinese currency. Also know as yuan. ROC – Republic of China, or Taiwan ROK – Republic of Korea (South Korea) SARS – Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SDF – Self-Defense Forces (Japan) TMD – theater missile defense USAID – United States Agency for International Development WMD – weapons of mass destruction WTO – World Trade Organization | viii | INTRODUCTION ROBERT M. HATHAWAY eorge W.Bush did not set out to be a foreign policy president. As is usually the case (2004 being a striking exception), foreign pol- G icy did not figure prominently in the 2000 presidential cam- paign. Certainly little in Governor Bush’s speeches and statements that year—with the exception of an occasional attack on the Clinton adminis- tration’s conduct of relations with China—gave any indication that the candidate had thought deeply about Asia, or had any detailed policies for the region. Four years later, with his re-election effort successfully behind him, President Bush possesses an extensive Asia resumé. Anticipated or not, Asia has figured heavily in Bush’s handling of foreign policy and national security since he entered the White House in January 2001. On November 9, 2004, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars hosted a daylong conference on the George W. Bush presidency and East Asia—the policies, the assumptions behind the policies, the key personnel, the style, and the results of the first term. A distinguished ros- ter of diplomats, scholars, congressional leaders, and past and present pol- icy practitioners were asked to issue a preliminary report card on the Bush administration’s Asian policies, and on how successfully the administra- tion has safeguarded key U.S. interests in the region. Following the conference, the Wilson Center’s Asia Program solicited essays from several additional Asianists. This volume is the result. It provides an early scholarly analysis of George W. Bush’s stewardship of American interests in East Asia. But beyond that, it is our hope that this report might help set the Asian agenda for the second Bush administration. The essays presented here focus on East and Southeast Asia, with only passing reference to South and Central Asia. Regional analysts increasing- Robert M. Hathaway is director of the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. | 1 | Robert M. Hathaway ly recognize the artificiality of geographical divisions among the various parts of Asia, and indeed, the Wilson Center in its programming and its publications