Asia Policy 14, No. 1 (2019)
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Thomas J. Christensen's CV
Thomas J. Christensen Professional Positions 2003-present William P. Boswell Professor of World Politics of Peace and War, Princeton University▪ January 2011-present Professor of Politics and International Affairs; Director, China and the World Program Princeton University ▪ July 2003-present Director, Master’s of Public Policy Program, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University ▪ July 2009-present Faculty Director, Truman Scholars Program, Princeton University ▪ July 2011-present Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, with responsibility for relations with China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Mongolia ▪ July 2006-July 2008 Foreign Affairs Expert (part-time consultant), Secretary’s Policy Planning Staff United States Department of State ▪ July 2008-present Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy, John L. Thornton China Center The Brookings Institution ▪ January 2010-Present Academic Advisory Board, Schwarzman Global Scholars Program, 2013-2016 Education Columbia University (September 1987-February 1993) Ph.D., Political Science, International Relations Area Specialization: Chinese Politics and Foreign Policy ▪ February 1993 Peking University, Beijing, China, Advanced Research Scholar▪ August 1990-January 1991 (Ph.D. Dissertation Research) University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, China, Business Chinese Classes▪ Summer 1987 University of Pennsylvania (September 1985-August 1987) M.A., International Relations ▪ August 1987 Cornell University. FALCON intensive Chinese language class (June-August -
Sunni – Shi`A Relations and the Implications for Belgium and Europe
FEARING A ‘SHIITE OCTOPUS’ SUNNI – SHI`A RELATIONS AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR BELGIUM AND EUROPE EGMONT PAPER 35 FEARING A ‘SHIITE OCTOPUS’ Sunni – Shi`a relations and the implications for Belgium and Europe JELLE PUELINGS January 2010 The Egmont Papers are published by Academia Press for Egmont – The Royal Institute for International Relations. Founded in 1947 by eminent Belgian political leaders, Egmont is an independent think-tank based in Brussels. Its interdisciplinary research is conducted in a spirit of total academic freedom. A platform of quality information, a forum for debate and analysis, a melting pot of ideas in the field of international politics, Egmont’s ambition – through its publications, seminars and recommendations – is to make a useful contribution to the decision- making process. *** President: Viscount Etienne DAVIGNON Director-General: Marc TRENTESEAU Series Editor: Prof. Dr. Sven BISCOP *** Egmont - The Royal Institute for International Relations Address Naamsestraat / Rue de Namur 69, 1000 Brussels, Belgium Phone 00-32-(0)2.223.41.14 Fax 00-32-(0)2.223.41.16 E-mail [email protected] Website: www.egmontinstitute.be © Academia Press Eekhout 2 9000 Gent Tel. 09/233 80 88 Fax 09/233 14 09 [email protected] www.academiapress.be J. Story-Scientia NV Wetenschappelijke Boekhandel Sint-Kwintensberg 87 B-9000 Gent Tel. 09/225 57 57 Fax 09/233 14 09 [email protected] www.story.be All authors write in a personal capacity. Lay-out: proxess.be ISBN 978 90 382 1538 9 D/2010/4804/17 U 1384 NUR1 754 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the permission of the publishers. -
Forecasting China's Future," the National Interest (Fall 1986)
FORECASTING CHINA’S FUTURE: EXPERTS AND UNCERTAINTY Roger Irvine Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Centre for Asian Studies School of Social Sciences and Humanities University of Adelaide October 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................ iii ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................ vi DECLARATION ....................................................................................................... vii ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................ viii SPELLING OF CHINESE NAMES ........................................................................... ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................... x 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Challenges and Benefits of Forecasting ........................................................ 1 1.2 China Watchers and Forecasting ................................................................... 3 1.3 Dominance and Collapse ............................................................................... 6 1.4 Experts and Uncertainty ................................................................................ 7 1.5 Overview ...................................................................................................... -
Vali Nasr Webcast and Discussion Guide
Webcast: Exploring 9/11 – The World Before and After Supplementary Materials Vali Nasr discusses the history, identity, and changing political role of Shi’ites in the Middle East. This and all of our webcasts can be found at www.national911memorial.org/new_history_exploring. The Speaker Vali Nasr is a professor of International Relations at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and a Senior Adjunct Fellow in Middle East Affairs at the Council of Foreign Relations. Review Questions Key Figures and Vocabulary CHAPTER 1: Nasr discusses the effects of the 2003 war in Iraq on the distribution of power between Shi’a and Sunni Muslims in Abu Bakr that country. The Prophet Mohammad’s father- 1. Describe the distribution of power in Iraq before the war. in-law and close adviser; became 2. How is the Shi’a population distributed throughout the the first caliph in 632 C.E. after the Middle East? prophet’s death. CHAPTER 2: Nasr describes the differences between the Sunni Ali and Shi’a Muslims, both historically and today. Mohammad’s cousin and son-in- 1. Explain the crux of the Sunni/Shi’a schism. law; became the fourth caliph in 656 C.E. Shi’ites consider him to 2. How did this division eventually result in two different be the first Imam, and his cultures with distinct values and practices? descendants to be the rightful successors to the caliphate. CHAPTER 3: Nasr discusses the Shi’a beliefs and traditions that set them apart from other adherents of Islam. Ayatollah 1. Describe the Shi’a identity and worldview as Nasr Title signifying a high ranking describes it. -
The Challenging Future of Strategic Planning in Foreign Policy
01-0306-8 ch1.qxd 3/26/09 2:44 PM Page 3 daniel w. drezner 1 The Challenging Future of Strategic Planning in Foreign Policy “Avoid trivia.” —Secretary of State George Marshall’s advice to George Kennan, the first director of policy planning Strategic planning for American foreign policy is dead, dying, or moribund. This, at least, has been the assessment of several commentators and policy- makers in recent years.1 Michèle Flournoy and Shawn Brimley observed in 2006, “For a country that continues to enjoy an unrivaled global position, it is both remarkable and disturbing that the United States has no truly effective strategic planning process for national security.”2 At an academic conference in 2007, a former director of the State Department’s policy planning staff complained that, “six years after 9/11, we still don’t have a grand strategy.” Aaron Friedberg, who was director of policy planning for Vice President Richard Cheney, writes in this volume, “The U.S. government has lost the capacity to conduct serious, sustained national strategic planning.” Admiral William Fallon, the CENTCOM commander until the spring of 2008, told the New York Times that the United States would need to focus more on policy planning: “We need to have a well-thought-out game plan for engagement in the world that we adjust regularly and that has some system of checks and bal- ances built into it.”3 In this volume, Council on Foreign Relations president Richard Haass argues that the United States has “squandered” its post–cold war opportunity, concluding, “Historians will not judge the United States well for how it has used these twenty years.” These sorts of laments have become common in the past decade, in no small part because of the foreign policy planning of the administrations of Bill 3 01-0306-8 ch1.qxd 3/26/09 2:44 PM Page 4 4 The Challenging Future of Strategic Planning Clinton and George W. -
Self-Study Syllabus on Chinese Foreign Policy
Self-Study Syllabus on Chinese Foreign Policy www.mandarinsociety.org PrefaceAbout this syllabus with China’s rapid economic policymakers in Washington, Tokyo, Canberra as the scale and scope of China’s current growth, increasing military and other capitals think about responding to involvement in Africa, China’s first overseas power,Along and expanding influence, Chinese the challenge of China’s rising power. military facility in Djibouti, or Beijing’s foreign policy is becoming a more salient establishment of the Asian Infrastructure concern for the United States, its allies This syllabus is organized to build Investment Bank (AIIB). One of the challenges and partners, and other countries in Asia understanding of Chinese foreign policy in that this has created for observers of China’s and around the world. As China’s interests a step-by-step fashion based on one hour foreign policy is that so much is going on become increasingly global, China is of reading five nights a week for four weeks. every day it is no longer possible to find transitioning from a foreign policy that was In total, the key readings add up to roughly one book on Chinese foreign policy that once concerned principally with dealing 800 pages, rarely more than 40–50 pages will provide a clear-eyed assessment of with the superpowers, protecting China’s for a night. We assume no prior knowledge everything that a China analyst should know. regional interests, and positioning China of Chinese foreign policy, only an interest in as a champion of developing countries, to developing a clearer sense of how China is To understanding China’s diplomatic history one with a more varied and global agenda. -
Beyond Engagement? Rethinking America's China Policy
JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY CHINA, 2016 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2015.1132962 BOOK REVIEW Beyond Engagement? Rethinking America's China Policy The China Challenge: shaping the choices of a rising power, by Thomas Christensen, New York, W.W. Norton, 2015. The Hundred Year War: China’s secret strategy to replace America as the global superpower, by Michael Pillsbury, New York, Henry Holt & Co, 2015. Strategic Reassurance and Resolve: US China relations in the twenty-first century, by James Steinberg and Michael O’Hanlon, Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press, 2014. Obama and China’s Rise: an insider’s account of America’s Asia strategy, by Jeffery Bader, Washington, DC, Brookings Institution Press, 2012. A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the struggle for mastery in Asia, by Aaron Friedberg, New York, W.W. Norton, 2011. Rethinking engagement Since the Nixon Administration, the US strategy towards China has been predicated on the assumption that if the bilateral relationship is properly managed conflict can be avoided. Many Americans across the political spectrum believe that through engagement the US can reduce the chances that China will become aggressive (Bader, Obama and China’s Rise, pp. 146–147). Yet, even as US policymakers have sought to integrate China and use cooperation to shape its choices, Beijing’s increasing bellicosity has raised concerns in Washington and beyond that engagement may not prevent conflict. For five decades, the US has aided China economically, rhetorically and politically with the underly- ing objective to mollify, and if possible, avoid, the rising state’s propensity to pursue revisionism using force. -
Shia and Iranian Ascendance
AUGUST 2007 IPCS Research Papers SShhiiaa aanndd IIr raanniiaann AAsscceennddaannccee:: SSuunnnnii aanndd AAmm eerriiccaann PPeerrcceeppttiioonnss SSrriinnjjooyy BBoossee IInnssttiittuuttee ooff PPeeaaccee aanndd CCoonnfflliicctt SSttuuddiieess NNeeww DDee-l li hh- ii,, IINNDDIIAA © 2007, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies is not responsible for the facts, views or opinion expressed by the author. The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), established in August 1996, is an independent think tank devoted to research on peace and security from a South Asian perspective. Its aim is to develop a comprehensive and alternative framework for peace and security in the region catering to the changing demands of national, regional and global security. Address: B 7/3 Lower Ground Floor Safdarjung Enclave New Delhi 110029 INDIA Tel: 91-11-4100 1900, 4165 2556, 4165 2557, 4165 2558, 4165 2559 Fax: (91-11) 4165 2560 Email: [email protected] Web: www.ipcs.org CONTENTS Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 Sunni Fears....................................................................................................................... 2 American Suspicions and Manoeuvres ........................................................................ 5 Is there a Shia Crescent? The Iranian Perspective...................................................... 8 Prospects for Accommodation .................................................................................... -
PREFACE 1 . Said Amir Arjomand, the Shadow of God and the Hidden
N o t e s P REFACE 1 . S a i d A m i r A r jomand, The Shadow of God and the Hidden Imam; Religion, Political Order, and Social Change in Shi’ite Iran from the Beginning to 1890 (Chicago: The University of Chicago, 1984), 270. 1 THE STORY OF THE SHI’A 1 . H a m i d Enayat, “Shi’ism and Sunnism,” in Shi’ism: Doctrines, Thoughts, and Spiritualityy, ed. Seyyed Hossein Nasr (New York: State University of New York Press, 1988), 79–80; Rudi Matthee, “The Egyptian Opposition to the Iranian Revolution,” in Shi’ism and Social Protestt , eds. Juan R. I. Cole and Nikki R. Keddie (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1986), 248; Michael Axworthy, I ran, Empire of the Mind—A History from Zoroaster to the Present Day (London: Penguin Books, 2007), 201–203. 2 . A x w o r t hy, Iran, Empire of the Mindd, 178. 3 . Karen Barkey, “Islam and Toleration: Studying the Ottoman Imperial Model,” International Journal of Politics, Culture, and Societyy, vol. 19, no. 1/2 (December 2005), 10; Bruce Masters, “The Treaties of Erzurum ( 1823 and 1848) and the Changing Status of Iranians in the Ottoman,” Iranian Studiess , vol. 24, no. 1/4 (1991), 7–8; R. I. Cole and Moojan Momen, “Mafia, Mob and Shiism in Iraq: The Rebellion of Ottoman Karbala 1824–1843,” Past & Present , no. 112 (August 1986), 116; Juan R. I. Cole, “‘Indian Money’ and the Shi’i Shrine Cities of Iraq, 1786–1850,” Middle Eastern Studiess, vol. 22, no. 4 (October 1986), 470. -
Maximilian Terhalle
TERHALLE: ARE THE SHIA RISING? ARE THE SHIA RISING? Maximilian Terhalle Dr. Terhalle serves as an expert on the Gulf region with the German Army. This essay reflects entirely his own opinions. The author would like to thank Professor Gregory Gause (University of Vermont) for reading the final draft and enriching the assessment. n an article published in The Persian Gulf6 — has become more promi- Washington Post on November 29, nent in the last six years due to three 2006, a security adviser to King interwoven developments. Abdullah of Saudi Arabia stressed the The first is the strengthening of Iran’s I geopolitical position after the fall of the inevitable necessity for a “massive Saudi intervention”1 to shield the kingdom’s Sunni Taliban and Saddam Hussein and its brethren against any Shia-supported attempt to diversify its bilateral relations in expulsion should Iraq split up. Even though the Gulf afterwards. The second is the Nawaf Obaid was dismissed shortly increase in Shia awareness, precipitated by afterwards, presumably for his boldness, the U.S. democratization plans, in countries his words reflected the king’s use of the where major parts of the populations are term “Shia crescent” renewed during the followers of Ali (Shiat Ali).7 The third is visit of Vice President Cheney last Novem- the decline of U.S. power in Iraq, linked to ber. Previously, Jordan’s King Abdullah and Iran’s successful defiance of international Egypt’s President Mubarak had pointed in pressure to halt its nuclear program, as the same direction. Moreover, “Iran’s well as its subsequent rhetorical hubris, nuclear ambitions”2 prompted the leaders which increasingly frightens its neighbors. -
China and Sars: the Crisis and Its Effects on Politics and the Economy
THE ATLANTIC COUNCIL OF THE UNITED STATES THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION THE CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE THE US-CHINA BUSINESS COUNCIL CHINA AND SARS: THE CRISIS AND ITS EFFECTS ON POLITICS AND THE ECONOMY MODERATOR: RICHARD BUSH, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PARTICIPANTS: LAURIE GARRETT, NEWSDAY; ROBERT A. KAPP, US-CHINA BUSINESS COUNCIL; MICHAEL SWAINE, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT; AND MINXIN PEI, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT LOCATION: THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION, WASHINGTON, D.C. DATE: WEDNESDAY, JULY 2, 2003 Transcript by: Federal News Service Washington, D.C. RICHARD BUSH: If I could have your attention, please, I think that because we have four speakers and a very interesting topic, we should go ahead and get started. We won't pick up the entree plates until after the event's over, so just go ahead and manage your dessert however you can. (Laughter.) Again, it's my great pleasure to welcome you here to Brookings today for a program on SARS and China. I think that SARS sort of gave us a really useful window on the Chinese system and how it works. And we have four excellent people to speak to us today. While I have the floor, I'm going to take advantage and make a brief commercial. And that is to note that Brookings has just released Bob Suettinger's book on U.S.-China relations from Tiananmen to the year 2000, called: "Beyond Tiananmen." It's available in our book store. It's not exactly a beach book -- (laughter) -- unless you're looking for a pillow, but it will be the sort of point of reference for a basic understanding, any understanding of this very important period in U.S.-China relations. -
Winning Strategic Competition in the Indo-Pacific
NATIONAL SECURITY FELLOWS PROGRAM Winning Strategic Competition in the Indo-Pacific Jason Begley PAPER SEPTEMBER 2020 National Security Fellowship Program Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Harvard Kennedy School 79 JFK Street Cambridge, MA 02138 www.belfercenter.org/NSF Statements and views expressed in this report are solely those of the author and do not imply endorsement by Harvard University, Harvard Kennedy School, the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, the U.S. government, the Department of Defense, the Australian Government, or the Department of Defence. Design and layout by Andrew Facini Copyright 2020, President and Fellows of Harvard College Printed in the United States of America NATIONAL SECURITY FELLOWS PROGRAM Winning Strategic Competition in the Indo-Pacific Jason Begley PAPER SEPTEMBER 2020 About the Author A Royal Australian Air Force officer, Jason Begley was a 19/20 Belfer Center National Security Fellow. Trained as a navigator on the P-3C Orion, he has flown multiple intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance opera- tions throughout the Indo-Pacific region and holds Masters degrees from the University of New South Wales and the Australian National University. His tenure as a squadron commander (2014-2017) coincided with the liberation of the Philippines’ city of Marawi from Islamic State, and the South China Sea legal case between the Philippines and the People’s Republic of China. Prior to his Fellowship, he oversaw surveillance, cyber and information operations at Australia’s Joint Operations Command Headquarters, and since returning to Australia now heads up his Air Force’s Air Power Center. Acknowledgements Jason would like to acknowledge the support of the many professors at the Harvard Kennedy School, particularly Graham Allison who also helped him progress his PhD during his Fellowship.