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Is It Time to Prepare for Growth? Consumption-Linked Stocks Seem Ready to Prosper

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Is It Time to Prepare for Growth? Consumption-Linked Stocks Seem Ready to Prosper Is It Time to Prepare For Growth? Consumption-Linked Stocks Seem Ready to Prosper. We Are Fine-Tuning Our Portfolio. November 20, 2019 Strategy Team Lucas Tambellini, CNPI Jorge Gabrich, CNPI André Dibe Guilherme Reif +55-11-3073-3023 +55-11-3073-3048 +55-11-3073-3222 +55-11-3073-3066 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Is It Time to Prepare For Growth? The market is already anticipating the data. Consumption-linked stocks are up 28% year to date while the Ibovespa is up by 20% for the same period. This group of stocks have been outperforming the benchmark since July 2019, when CAGED numbers were still in the 30k range. Investors are still increasing weight in these stocks, as commodities and non-consumption domestics appear to have a larger consensus. How we find our growth picks. We decided to look at metrics pertaining to companies’ operational potential (degree of operating leverage), operational performance (recent revenue growth), funding sources (cash generation), leverage (net debt to EV), relative valuation (price-to-book z-score) and investor sentiment (crowdedness index). Brazil Buy List changes. We are removing Petrobras (PETR4), which has appreciated by 53.9% since its inclusion, while the Ibovespa increased by 33.3% in the same period. We are also removing Vale (VALE3), -7.6% vs. +0.5%, to add Renner (LREN3) and Ambev (ABEV3). In this report we explore how best to Why Ambev and Renner? Both are highly resilient names (as we concluded in our “What If Winter Comes?” report), and they are linked to local economy. This is consistent with our reduction in commodity names as we grow uncomfortable with the approach the growth theme. We also increasing global volatility and more confident with the local scenario. Additionally, Ambev is one of the most discounted stocks in our coverage (when measured against its own history), and a pickup in volumes could propel an outperformance fine-tune our portfolio for next year against the index. In Renner we see considerable operating leverage before the fourth quarter (seasonally stronger) with a and take a close look at each growing retail sales trend. company in our Brazil Buy List. We prefer domestic exposure. Our investment thesis is based on three factors: i) yield curve flattening; ii) an upturn in the credit cycle; and iii) companies with compelling stories. Our allocation includes an overweight in domestic names (70%), an underweight in commodities (10%) and an underweight in Financials (20%). When the risk is global. We still see a persistent deceleration risk in the global economy due to trade-war woes. This is the first time in a while when the main problems arise from the global context and not the local backdrop. In this report, we aim to provide guidance on what we perceive to be the themes for next year, but the constantly changing global scenario could cause further course deviations in the near term. 2 Is It Time to Prepare For Growth? Chart 1: CAGED is Posting Data Above 50k Chart 2: Retail Segment is Leading Credit Recovery (in BRL Mln) (in BRL Mln) Seasonally Adj. Net Job Creation 3 Months Mov. Brazil Loan Book (in BRL Mln) The Market Is Already 160% 2000 Avg. 160% 160% 2000 2000 1800 1800 280 140% 140% 140% Anticipating the Data 1600 1600 120% 120% 120% 1400 1500 1400 180 100% 100% CAGED is our best gauge at this moment. The formal job 100% 1200 1200 80% 80% 100080% 1000 1000 80 market is considered to be on a positive trend when 60% 60% 80060% 800 600 600 monthly net job creation (CAGED) is consistently above 50 40% 40% 40% 500 -20 400 400 thousand jobs. Brazil finally lost this level on May 2014 Thousands 20% 20% 20020% 200 in after years of steady job creation. Since then, the indicator -120 0% 0% 00% 0 0 only broke through this level in October 2018, November set/11 set/11 set/17 set/17 set/13 set/13 set/12 set/12 set/15 set/15 set/16 set/19 set/16 set/19 set/18 set/18 set/14 set/14 set/10 -220 set/10 set/09 set/09 mar/11 mar/11 Dec-11 Jun-13 mar/17 mar/17 mar/13 mar/13 Jun-16 Jun-19 mar/12 mar/12 mar/15 mar/15 Sep-12 Sep-15 Mar-11 Dec-17 Jun-10 mar/16 mar/19 mar/16 mar/19 mar/18 mar/18 Sep-18 mar/14 mar/14 mar/10 mar/10 Mar-17 2018 and now in September 2019. Additionally, this job Dec-14 Mar-14 Sep-09 creation is occurring especially in sectors that generate 2012 2016 2018 2014 2010 2002 2006 2008 2004 2000 Total Credit Volume, rhs Corporate Individuals Total Credit Volume, rhs Corporate Individuals more economic stability, such as construction. Chart 4: …But Investors Still Appear to Be Credit cycle on the positive side. Brazil’s retail-side credit is Chart 3: The Market Already Seems to Be Pricing In a Increasing Weight in This Theme driving the growth in this segment while corporates are Recovery for Consumption-Linked Names… still lagging. We believe that interest rates will remain low Crowdedness Index 33% Consumption and credit growth could increase as employment 28% Linked 15.0 improves further. 28.1% 13.0 11.6 11.9 12.0 12.6 23% 9.3 The market is already paying for this growth. IBOV 9.0 Consumption-linked stocks are up 28% year to date, while 18% 20.2% the Ibovespa is up by 20% in the same period. This group 13% has been outperforming the benchmark since July 2019, when CAGED numbers were still in the 30k range. 8% Still not that crowded. Investors are still increasing weight 3% Malls in this theme, as commodities and non-consumption -2% Retail Jul Jan Oct Jun Financials Apr Feb Sep Dec Education Mar Aug Domestics domestics appear to have a larger consensus. May -7% Commodities Homebuilders Food andBev. Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg, IBGE 3 Who is Better Positioned? Chart 1: Companies With High Operating Leverage and Positive Operational Momentum Could Be Affected First A better macro outlook. Our macro team recently revised its 2020 GDP growth forecast 47.0 to 2.2% from 1.7% due to the stronger effect of monetary policy on activity. Additionally, FTGS VVAR3 funds that are currently being released could help further propel revenues in the retail 46.0 segment, just as they did in 2017. Who is better positioned to enjoy this growth? Degree of operating leverage (gross profits 5.0 RADL3 over operating income) could help answer that question. Seventeen of the 26 Consumption- COGN3 MGLU3 linked companies we cover have operating 4.0 ARZZ3 leverage greater than 3x, generating a HGTX3 MDIA3 LREN3 significant pool of companies to delve deep GUAR3 into. LAME4 CYRE3 But who can deliver? We have decided to look 3.0 into the recent revenue growth histories of SEER3 YDUQ3 TEND3 companies to determine which ones have positive operational momentum. MRVE3 Degree Degree of Operating Leverage 2.0 ABEV3 Who do we like? Via Varejo and Renner appear to be good options. For Via Varejo, this is due MULT3 to its huge operating leverage (highest in our IGTA3 coverage) and its turnaround story. For 1.0 Renner, this is due to its notable and consistent 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% growth and its considerable operating 2 Year Revenue CAGR leverage. Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg, Economatica 4 The Growth Source Chart 1: Be Prepared for the Type of Growth the Company Is Seeking to Attain Know the funding. Cash generation is key to 25% understanding the finances of a company. The Self-Funded Expansion amount of leverage is important in SEER3 understanding a company’s options. The two 20% metrics we used are: i) Free Cash from Operations + Free Cash from Investments over Total Assets; and ii) Net Debt/Enterprise Value. 15% Why does it matter? Companies with ABEV3 HGTX3 externally funded expansions tend to grow ARZZ3 CYRE3 10% YDUQ3 faster, especially if capital is readily available to LREN3 them. On the other hand, companies that rely EVEN3 NATU3 EZTC3 BRML3 on their own operations for growth (self- 5% RADL3 funded expansion) usually generate growth MDIA3 IGTA3 MRVE3 that is more consistent and reliable. This MULT3 TCSA3 ALSO3 TEND3 CVCB3 second group is less at the mercy of stressed 0% markets and can more easily change toward LAME4 externally funded expansion if needed. MGLU3 GUAR3 VVAR3 -5% It’s important to interpret the data. Companies Cash Cash Generation (FCO+FCI Over Total Assets) in the midst of a turnaround could be located in either group and migrate frequently between BTOW3 -10% COGN3 them, as they are still grappling with their new objectives. This chart helps us to understand Externally-Funded Expansion their options and the impact of strong cash -15% generation. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Net Debt / Enterprise Value Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg, Economatica 5 What to Pick? Chart 1: Price Matters, But It’s Relative… The price-to-book z-score. We normalized each Consumption-linked stock’s trading history through 20.0 one multiple we feel is shared by all of them: the price- to-book ratio. We used three years of data in order to see where each company is trading now in relation to 18.0 MGLU3 its own history. Price is relative. Several companies seem to be BRML3 16.0 expensive when measured against their own histories.
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