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Food & Beverage Equity Research October 18, 2019 Earnings Preview FOOD & BEVERAGE 3Q19: mixed results; the US and Argentina working in favor while BZ market disappointing Next week, the 3Q19 earnings season for the F&B sector begins. Overall, we expect to see companies more exposed to the domestic market still facing a weak consumer demand. In Target Price this context, we point out Ambev and M Dias Branco that, besides presenting reduction in Ticker YE20 TP Rating Mkt Cap* volume, should also show pressured margins due to higher costs related to the dollar appreciation, in our view. Regarding the animal protein companies, we expect positive figures ABEV3** 20.0 Market Perform 295,319 for companies exposed to the US beef market, such as JBS and Marfrig, due to higher JBSS3 33.0 Outperform 79,516 spreads and costs at comfortable levels. Brazilian meatpackers exposed to Argentinian market should also present positive figures on the back of exports to China. On the other BRFS3 45.0 Outperform 29,192 hand, companies more dependent on BZ exports might bring limited results since figures MDIA3 45.0 Market Perform 12,045 released by Secex frustrated initial expectations on beef, poultry and pork exports throughout the 3Q19. All considered, here follows below our estimates for the 3Q19 results to each MRFG3 10.0 Outperform 7,188 company separately. BEEF3 10.5 Outperform 3,943 Ambev (report date: Oct 25, pre market): Negative. We expect higher prices in Brazil and a *R$ Million; as of October 17; ** YE19 TP to be updated in the solid result in CAC to induce the consolidated top line that should reach R$ 11.5 bn, an 3Q19 report increment of 4% y/y in our estimates. However, higher costs related to FX in Brazil and LAS may pressure consolidated EBITDA margin, which we expect to drop to 38.4% from 40.2% in Performance YTD the 3Q18. In Beer Brazil, the price hike implemented in July combined with the still weak % scenario for consumption in Brazil should negatively affect volume in the 3Q19: we expect a reduction of 2% y/y in beer volume. In addition, higher costs related to FX might pressure margins, though partially offset by efficiency gains in SG&A as observed in the 2Q19. JBS Therefore, we expect a decrease of 120 bps y/y in EBITDA margin that should reach 40.5%. Given a stronger comparison basis and negative effects from the suspension of tax benefits in Minerva the Manaus Free Zone, we expect EBITDA margin falling to 41.7% from 49.6% for NAB Brazil. In LAS, we shall see a marginal recovery in volumes on the back of a weaker comparison basis. However, higher expected costs for the 2H19 due to FX appreciation in the Marfrig region should pressure EBITDA margin that we expect to drop substantially to 38.1% from 44.4% in the 3Q18. On the positive side, we expect CAC to follow the upward trend observed in the last quarters with increases in both volumes and prices, leading EBITDA margin to BRF 38.6% (+140 bps y/y), in our estimates. JBS (report date: Nov 13, after market): Positive. We expect strong results for JBS mainly Ambev stemming from a robust performance in JBS USA Beef. Consequently, we estimate revenue totaling R$ 53.3 bn (+8% y/y) and EBITDA reaching R$ 5.8 bn (+30% y/y) with margin at 10.8% vs 9% in the 3Q18. Due to the fire in Tyson's plant occurred in the 2Q19, we assumed Ibovespa a reduction in beef supply, pushing spreads up, and benefiting margins in the beef industry in the US. Therefore, we expect JBS USA Beef to present an EBITDA margin of 10.6% vs. 8.2% in the 3Q18, also driven by (i) the continuous strong demand in the domestic market, (ii) the M. Dias Branco increase in exports from Australia to China, and (iii) a balanced cattle availability in the US. -40% 10% 60% 110% 160% JBS USA Pork, in turn, might show negative results due to pork oversupply and higher costs observed in the quarter. Thus, we estimate EBITDA margin at 7.5% (240 bps lower y/y). PPC, whose results are schedule to be released on October 31, might continue to face lower FX Variation average prices also given the oversupply. However, due to a weaker comparison basis, we (BRL/USD) estimate EBITDA margin at 9.4% vs. 5.8% in the 3Q18. In Brazil, we see margins being benefited by: (i) increase in volumes exported; (ii) higher average prices, and (iii) the dollar appreciation. As a result, we estimate EBTIDA margin at 9.2% and 11% for JBS Brazil and 4.2 Seara, respectively. (Estimates per unit on page 3) 3.8 BRF (report date: Nov 07, pre market): Positive. In our view, BRF’s results should continue presenting the upward trend observed in the 1H19 in an annual comparison. Although Secex 3.4 figures showed reduction in exported volumes of BZ poultry (-16% y/y) and pork (-4% y/y) in the 3Q19, we expect BRF’s results to be supported by: (i) higher international and domestic 3.0 prices, (ii) dollar at higher levels, and (iii) corn prices at more comfortable level. Therefore, we expect an increase of 7% y/y in the consolidated revenue, which totaled R$ 8.5 bn in our 2.6 estimates. EBITDA should benefit from a weaker comparison basis, reason why we estimate it at R$ 1.1 bn, a significant increase of 88% y/y, with margin at 13.3% vs. 7.6% in the 3Q18. In Brazil, EBITDA margin should boost by higher average prices and lower costs y/y. Source: Bloomberg and BB Investimentos Accordingly, we estimate margin at 11.8% from 9.7% same period last year. Halal has a stronger comparison base but, due to lower costs, it should sustain margin, which we estimate at 14%, a slight rise of 40 bps compared to the 3Q18. International unit, in turn, should Luciana Carvalho continue to show strong results given the encouraging international demand, mainly in Asia, [email protected] and higher prices. Thus, we see EBITDA margin at 20.7% against a negative margin of 6.7% in 3Q18. (Estimates per unit on page 4) 1 / 9 3Q19 Earnings Preview M. Dias Branco (report date: Nov 08, after market): Negative. M Dias Branco’s results should follow the downward trend observed in the 1H19 and come in weak in 3Q19. The still challenging environment for consumption in Brazil combined with higher wheat costs, considering the dollar appreciation, may pressure margin in our view. As a result, we expect an 8% decrease in volume y/y, partially compensated by higher average prices due to company’s efforts focused on improving mix and channels, diminishing, thus, the practice of discounts. All in all, we estimate revenue at R$ 1.6 bn (-8% y/y) and EBITDA dropping by 31% y/y to R$ 195 mn, with margin at 12.1% vs. 16.3% same period last year. Marfrig (report date: Nov 11, after market): Positive. Marfrig should report positive figures on the back of: (i) solid results in North America due to the fire in Tyson’s plant aforementioned, and (ii) higher exports from Argentina to China, which has gained strength since the 2Q19. Hence, we estimate revenue at R$ 12.5 bn, an increment of 13% y/y. Despite higher costs in Brazil and Uruguay are expected given higher cattle prices y/y, we believe that the fixed costs dilution in North America as a result of Tyson’s effect and the favorable cattle cycle in the US should partially compensate. For that reason, we estimate EBITDA increasing 13% y/y to R$ 1.2 bn with margin flat y/y at 9.8%. Minerva (report date: Nov 12, after market): Neutral. We expect mixed results for Minerva in the 2Q19. Athena foods should continue to benefit from the encouraging scenario in Argentinian exports to China, in our view. On the other hand, a significant increase in volumes from Brazil to the Asian country has not been reached yet. According to Secex figures, volumes of beef exported decreased by 11% y/y in 3Q, leading us to believe that Minerva, as a pure player focused on the beef industry, should not yet benefit from higher volumes as expected. Thus, we estimate revenue at R$ 4.6 bn (+7% y/y) induced by the performance of Athena Foods and the stronger dollar. EBITDA, in turn, should be pressured by higher cattle costs in both Uruguay and Brazil. Consequently, we estimate EBITDA at R$ 438 mn (- 2% y/y) and margin at 9.4% vs 10.4% in the 3Q18. Highlights Net Revenue Consensus EBITDA Consensus R$ Million 3Q19e y/y q/q 3Q19e ∆ % 3Q19e y/y q/q 3Q19e ∆ % ABEV3 11,519 4% -5% 12,469 -8% 4,418 -1% -6% 4,832 -9% JBSS3 53,299 8% 5% 51,950 3% 5,777 30% 13% 5,446 6% BRFS3 8,544 7% 2% 8,633 -1% 1,134 88% -27% 845 34% MDIA3 1,611 -8% 4% 1,771 -9% 195 -31% 7% 192 2% MRFG3 12,488 13% 7% 12,376 1% 1,224 13% 13% 1,147 7% BEEF3 4,654 7% 16% 4,442 5% 438 -2% 20% - - Source: Bloomberg and BB Investimentos estimates Ambev (ABEV3) Report Date: October 25. Pre market. Income Statement R$ Million 3Q19e 3Q18a 2Q19a y/y q/q Net Revenue 11,519 11,064 12,145 4.1% -5.2% (-) COGS (4,952) (4,371) (4,961) 13.3% -0.2% Gross Profit 6,566 6,693 7,184 -1.9% -8.6% SG&A (3,333) (3,510) (3,788) -5.0% -12.0% Other income (expenses) 209 198 191 5.3% 9.5% EBIT 3,443 3,382 3,586 1.8% -4.0% (+) Special items above EBIT (8) (13) (34) -39.9% -77.3% (+) Financial Results (666) (611) (567) 9.0% 17.4% (+) Share of results of associates 0 (3) (1) - - EBT 2,769 2,755 2,984 0.5% -7.2% (-) Taxes 281 138 (364) - - Net Income 3,049 2,892 2,620 5.4% 16.4% EBITDA 4,418 4,451 4,691 -0.7% -5.8% Margins % 3Q19e 3Q18a 2Q19a y/y q/q Gross Margin 57.0% 60.5% 59.1% -3.5 p.p.
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