Research Update: Outlook On 29 Brazilian Corporations Revised To Stable From Positive On Same Action On Sovereign
April 7, 2020
Rating Action Overview PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYSTS
- Brazil's GDP growth and fiscal performance will suffer in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic Flavia M Bedran and extraordinary government spending. Sao Paulo - As a result, on April 6, 2020, S&P Global Ratings revised the outlook on the sovereign rating on + 55 11 3039 9758 flavia.bedran Brazil to stable from positive, and affirmed its 'BB-' global scale and 'brAAA' national scale @spglobal.com ratings. Luisa Vilhena - In our view, many Brazilian corporate and infrastructure ratings would experience credit stress Sao Paulo in a scenario of a sovereign default. Therefore, we cap many ratings at the sovereign level or at a (55) 11-3039-9727 maximum of up to four notches above this ceiling. luisa.vilhena @spglobal.com
- Consequently, on April 7, 2020, we revised our outlook to stable from positive on 29 Brazilian Wendell Sacramoni, CFA companies and one Peruvian company. Sao Paulo (55) 11-3039-4855 wendell.sacramoni @spglobal.com
Rating Action Rationale Marcelo Schwarz, CFA Sao Paulo On April 6, 2020, we revised our outlook on Brazil to stable from positive, which reflects (55) 11-3039-9782 diminishing prospects for an upgrade over the coming year due to the negative impact of the marcelo.schwarz COVID-19 pandemic on the economy. We expect Brazil's GDP growth and fiscal performance to @spglobal.com suffer in 2020 due to the pandemic and extraordinary government spending, before gradual SECONDARY CONTACTS economic recovery and fiscal consolidation resumes. We also assume slower-than-expected Diego H Ocampo progress on the reform agenda to address structural fiscal vulnerabilities and to improve low Buenos Aires medium-term GDP growth prospects. (54) 114-891-2116 The global scale 'BB-' rating on Brazil limits a large number of corporate and infrastructure ratings diego.ocampo @spglobal.com because of our belief that in an event of sovereign default, many of these entities would experience credit stress too. Julyana Yokota Sao Paulo + 55 11 3039 9731 julyana.yokota Issuers capped at the sovereign level (BB-) @spglobal.com The sovereign rating limit adopts various forms for our rated portfolio of Brazilian corporations. We See complete contact list at end of article. cap a large number of rated Brazilian entities at the 'BB-' long-term foreign currency sovereign
www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect April 7, 2020 1 Research Update: Outlook On 29 Brazilian Corporations Revised To Stable From Positive On Same Action On Sovereign
rating. These issuers have intrinsic credit qualities (or stand-alone credit profiles [SACPs]) stronger than 'bb-', but the final ratings on them are, by virtue of the sovereign limit, 'BB-'. Thus, the outlook revision to stable on the sovereign led us to revise the respective outlooks on these entities back to stable too.
This group includes all regulated utilities that we cap by the sovereign given their inherent exposure to the regulatory framework in the country. Also in this group are companies that don't pass our liquidity stress test in a hypothetical sovereign distress scenario:
- Camil Alimentos S.A.
- CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo
- Cosan S.A.
- Cosan Ltd.
- Cosan Lubrificantes e Especialidades S.A.
- Cyrela Brazil Realty S.A. Empreendimentos e Participacoes
- Rede D'Or Sao Luiz S.A.
- MRS Logistica S.A.
- EDP Espirito Santo Distribuicao de Energia S.A.
- Neoenergia S.A.
- Companhia de Eletricidade do Estado da Bahia
- Companhia Energetica de Pernambuco (CELPE)
- Companhia Energetica do Rio Grande do Norte
- Energisa S.A.
- Energisa Sergipe-Distribuidora de Energia S.A.
- Energisa Paraiba-Distribuidora de Energia S.A.
- Transmissora Alianca de Energia Eletrica S.A.
Issuers with ratings limited to one to four notches above the sovereign
These entities have a number of credit strengths that, in our opinion, would somewhat insulate them from a potential sovereign stress. In this group, we have a wide array of entities, from companies with assets and clients mostly in Brazil but that have very low leverage (generally the weaker SACPs in this group), to companies with a global footprint or that are export-oriented with demand that doesn't correlate to Brazil's economy (the strongest SACPs in this group).
We limit some ratings in this group--generally the highest--at one or two notches above Brazil's transfer and convertibility assessment (T&C, currently at 'bb+'), which is our assessment of the likelihood of the country imposing currency controls. Because the T&C assessment of a sovereign correlates with the sovereign rating, we assume that in a scenario of a sovereign upgrade, we would also upgrade the T&C assessment accordingly.
The lower chance of a rating change at the sovereign level is therefore mirrored in these entities' stable outlooks:
- Ache Laboratorios Farmaceuticos S.A.
www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect April 7, 2020 2 Research Update: Outlook On 29 Brazilian Corporations Revised To Stable From Positive On Same Action On Sovereign
- Ambev S.A.
- Globo Comunicacao e Participacoes S.A.
- Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.
- Raizen Combustiveis S.A. and Raizen Energia S.A., jointly referred to as Raizen S.A.
- Votorantim S.A. and its subsidiaries (Votorantim Cimentos S.A.; Nexa Resources S.A. and Nexa Resources Peru S.A.A.)
The outlook change on Votorantim S.A. triggers the same action on Votorantim Cimentos S.A., Nexa Resources S.A., and its core Peruvian subsidiary, Nexa Resources Peru S.A.A., because of our view of group support in a stress scenario.
Government-owned entities
Finally, we revised the outlooks to stable on two government-owned entities we rate in Brazil:
- Eletrobras-Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras S.A.
- Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras
National scale ratings
Finally, we have revised the outlook on the national scale rating on Ultrafertil S.A. to stable from positive.
We'll keep monitoring credit conditions and each sector's response to the coronavirus pandemic in the following weeks. Additionally, as information becomes available, we will test these entities' sensitivity to the updated economic conditions, which could potentially alter our conclusions on sovereign rating limits and the ratings.
Related Criteria
- General Criteria: Group Rating Methodology, July 1, 2019
- Criteria | Corporates | General: Corporate Methodology: Ratios And Adjustments, April 1, 2019
- General Criteria: Methodology For National And Regional Scale Credit Ratings, June 25, 2018
- General Criteria: Methodology For Linking Long-Term And Short-Term Ratings, April 7, 2017
- General Criteria: Rating Government-Related Entities: Methodology And Assumptions, March 25, 2015
- Criteria | Corporates | General: Methodology And Assumptions: Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, Dec. 16, 2014
- Criteria | Corporates | General: Corporate Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013
- General Criteria: Methodology: Industry Risk, Nov. 19, 2013
- General Criteria: Ratings Above The Sovereign--Corporate And Government Ratings: Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 19, 2013
- General Criteria: Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 19, 2013
www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect April 7, 2020 3 Research Update: Outlook On 29 Brazilian Corporations Revised To Stable From Positive On Same Action On Sovereign
- General Criteria: Methodology: Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities, Nov. 13, 2012
- General Criteria: Use Of CreditWatch And Outlooks, Sept. 14, 2009
Related Research
- Brazil Outlook Revised To Positive On Prospects For Sustained Fiscal Improvements; 'BB-/B' Ratings Affirmed, Dec. 11, 2019
Ratings List
Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action
To From
Ache Laboratorios Farmaceuticos S.A.
Issuer credit rating BB+/Stable/-- BB+/Positive/--
Ambev S.A.
Issuer credit rating BBB/Stable/-- BBB/Positive/--
Camil Alimentos S.A.
Issuer credit rating BB-/Stable/-- BB-/Positive/--
CESP – Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo
Issuer credit rating BB-/Stable/-- BB-/Positive/--
Cosan Ltd.
Issuer credit rating BB-/Stable/-- BB-/Positive/--
Cosan Lubrificantes e Especialidades S.A.
Issuer credit rating BB-/Stable/-- BB-/Positive/--
Cosan S.A.
Issuer credit rating BB-/Stable/-- BB-/Positive/--
Cyrela Brazil Realty S.A. Empreendimentos e Participacoes
Issuer credit rating BB-/Stable/-- BB-/Positive/--
EDP Espirito Santo Distribuicao de Energia S.A.
Issuer credit rating BB-/Stable/-- BB-/Positive/--
Eletrobras – Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras S.A.
Issuer credit rating BB-/Stable/-- BB-/Positive/--
Energisa S.A.
Issuer credit rating BB-/Stable/-- BB-/Positive/--
Energisa Paraiba – Distribuicao de Energia S.A.
Issuer credit rating BB-/Stable/-- BB-/Positive/--
Energisa Sergipe – Distribuicao de Energia S.A.
Issuer credit rating BB-/Stable/-- BB-/Positive/--
Globo Comunicacao e Participacoes S.A.
www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect April 7, 2020 4 Research Update: Outlook On 29 Brazilian Corporations Revised To Stable From Positive On Same Action On Sovereign
Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action
To From
Issuer credit rating BB+/Stable/-- BB+/Positive/--
MRS Logistica S.A.
Issuer credit rating BB-/Stable/-- BB-/Positive/--
Neoenergia S.A.
Issuer credit rating BB-/Stable/-- BB-/Positive/--
Companhia de Eletricidade do Estado da Bahia
Issuer credit rating BB-/Stable/-- BB-/Positive/--
Companhia Energetica de Pernambuco (CELPE)
Issuer credit rating BB-/Stable/-- BB-/Positive/--
Companhia Energetica do Rio Grande do Norte
Issuer credit rating BB-/Stable/-- BB-/Positive/--
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras
Issuer credit rating BB-/Stable/-- BB-/Positive/--
Raizen Energia S.A.
Issuer credit rating BBB-/Stable/-- BBB-/Positive/--
Raizen Combustiveis S.A.
Issuer credit rating BBB-/Stable/-- BBB-/Positive/--
Rede D'Or Sao Luiz S.A.
Issuer credit rating BB-/Stable/-- BB-/Positive/--
Transmissora Alianca de Energia Eletrica S.A.
Issuer credit rating BB-/Stable/-- BB-/Positive/--
Ultrafertil S.A.
Issuer credit rating
National scale brAA/Stable/-- brAA/Positive/--
Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.
Issuer credit rating BB+/Stable/-- BB+/Positive/--
Nexa Resources S.A.
Issuer credit rating BB+/Stable/B BB+/Positive/B
Nexa Resources Peru S.A.A.
Issuer credit rating BB+/Stable/-- BB+/Positive/--
Votorantim Cimentos S.A.
Issuer credit rating BBB-/Stable/-- BBB-/Positive/--
Votorantim S.A.
Issuer credit rating BBB-/Stable/-- BBB-/Positive/--
Certain terms used in this report, particularly certain adjectives used to express our view on rating relevant factors, have specific meanings ascribed to them in our criteria, and should therefore be read in conjunction with such criteria. Please see Ratings Criteria at www.standardandpoors.com for further information. Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at www.capitaliq.com. All ratings affected by this rating
www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect April 7, 2020 5 Research Update: Outlook On 29 Brazilian Corporations Revised To Stable From Positive On Same Action On Sovereign
action can be found on S&P Global Ratings' public website at www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left column.
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Contact List
PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST
Flavia M Bedran Luisa Vilhena Wendell Sacramoni, CFA Sao Paulo Sao Paulo Sao Paulo + 55 11 3039 9758 (55) 11-3039-9727 (55) 11-3039-4855 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST SECONDARY CONTACT SECONDARY CONTACT
Marcelo Schwarz, CFA Diego H Ocampo Julyana Yokota Sao Paulo Buenos Aires Sao Paulo (55) 11-3039-9782 (54) 114-891-2116 + 55 11 3039 9731 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
SECONDARY CONTACT SECONDARY CONTACT
Luciano D Gremone Candela Macchi Buenos Aires Buenos Aires (54) 114-891-2143 (54)-11-4891-2110 [email protected] [email protected]
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