PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET 4th edition

A GLOBAL SUPPLY & DEMAND ANALYSIS OF GOVERNMENT & COMMERCIAL SATELLITES UP TO 500 KG – AN EXTRACT

A Euroconsult Executive Report - 2018

PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2018 – Approved for public release WHO WE ARE / WHAT WE DO

TRAINING

PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2018 – Approved for public release ABOUT THIS RESEARCH REPORT

SCOPE

Prospects for the small satellite market presents the various factors that will drive/inhibit growth in demand for small satellites (<500 kg) over the next 10 years. This report considers satellites by four mass categories, six regions, six satellite applications and five manufacturer typologies.

EXTENSIVE FIGURES & ANALYSIS FOR THE COMING DECADE

All Euroconsult research has, at its core, data derived from over 30 years of tracking all levels of the satellite/space value chain. To this we add dozens of dedicated industry interviews each year, along with the continual refinement of our data models, and the collection and interpretation of company press releases and financial filings. Our consultants have decades of experience interpreting and analyzing our proprietary databases in light of the INCLUDED IN THIS PRODUCT broader value chain. When you purchase research from Euroconsult, you receive Forecast up to 2027 in units and value thousands of data points and the expert interpretation of what this means for specific verticals and sectors of the satellite value chain, including forecasts based on years of data and highly refined All segments of the value chain reviewed models. This report contains thousands of data points.  Purchase the report at our online shop Satellite forecast database included

PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2018 – Approved for public release REPORT’S TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION 02\ SMALLSAT DEMAND

4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 41 MASS CATEGORIES 6 SMALLSAT DEFINITIONS & SCOPE 45 OPERATOR BY REGION 8 ACRONYMS 51 OPERATOR TYPE 9 METHODOLOGY 55 BY APPLICATION 10 LESSONS LEARNED 61 FOCUS ON TELECOM CONSTELLATIONS New 11 SPECIFIC METHODOLOGY FOR CONSTELLATIONS New 63 FOCUS ON EARTH OBSERVATION CONSTELLATIONS New 65 FOCUS ON INFORMATION CONSTELLATIONS New 01\ STRATEGIC ISSUES AND FORECAST FOR THE SMALLSAT INDUSTRY 03\ SMALLSAT SUPPLY // MANUFACTURING 14 MAJOR CHANGES SINCE LAST EDITION 15 TRENDS IN SMALL SATELLITE MANUFACTURING & LAUNCH SERVICES 69 MAIN SMALL SATELLITE INTEGRATORS AROUND THE WORLD New 20 CONSOLIDATED FIGURES FOR THREE METRICS 70 DISTRIBUTION OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY BY REGION New 21 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // STREAMLINING IN THE VALUE CHAIN 71 MANUFACTURING MARKET VALUE BY REGION 22 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // CONSTELLATIONS 72 MANUFACTURING MARKET VALUE BY ORGANIZATION 23 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // INVESTMENT TRENDS New 74 TO BUILD IN-HOUSE? 24 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS New 75 SATELLITE PLATFORM DIVERSIFICATION 25 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // SUSTAINABILITY OF THE DEMAND New 76 CUBESAT PLATFORM PROVIDERS 26 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // US GOV. POLICY New 77 MAIN COMMERCIAL SMALLSAT INTEGRATORS 27 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // GOV. INVOLVEMENT (OUTSIDE THE U.S.) 28 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // U.S. EXPORT CONTROL & REGULATIONS 04\ LAUNCH SERVICES 29 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // A GROWING VALUE CHAIN New 30 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // VERTICAL INTEGRATION New 85 LAUNCH RATES & ORBITS 31 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT New 86 LAUNCHERS’ SEGMENTATION 32 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // DESIGN EVOLUTION & VALUE 87 PERFORMANCE OF MAIN LAUNCH SERVICE SUPPLIERS New DISTRIBUTION New 89 DISTRIBUTION OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY BY REGION New 33 HARDWARE FOCUS - MOST CRITICAL ADVANCES IN SUBSYSTEMS 90 LAUNCH SERVICES MARKET VALUE 34 SOFTWARE FOCUS New 91 LAUNCH MARKET VALUE BY ORGANIZATION 92 PRICE & CAPACITY FROM VARIOUS LAUNCH SOLUTIONS 93 UPCOMING SMALLSAT DEDICATED LAUNCHERS New 94 SMALLSAT DEDICATED LAUNCHERS & CONSTELLATION DEMAND New 95 LAUNCH BROKERING MARKET

PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2018 – Approved for public release SCOPE AND DEFINITION

METHODOLOGY SEGMENTATION The objective of this report is to provide a better understanding of the The report considers satellites across four mass categories, six regions, six small satellite (smallsat) market, a specific segment of the space industry applications, and four operators’ types. that is experiencing significant changes. This report presents Euroconsult’s The four mass categories between 1 kg and 500 kg of launch mass are view of the various factors that will drive/inhibit growth in smallsat presented below. The six regions are presented below. The applications’ demand over the next 10 years. All demand drivers have been considered: segmentation is presented next page. > Applications and missions of smallsat systems; The four categories of operators are: > Operators and users of smallsats; - Commercial: private sector companies selling satellite-based services > Technology changes affecting both platforms and payloads; - Civil government: civilian government organizations > Implications for the manufacturing and the launch businesses. - Defense: military government organizations - Academic: research and education organizations Euroconsult’s forecast of the smallsats to be launched over the next 10 years (2018 to 2027) has been developed from a qualitative and quantitative analysis conducted with two sources: The six regions of the report > A database of all satellites from 1 kg to 500kg of launch mass that were Russia & CIS launched from 2008 to 2017. The database also includes nominatively Europe the satellites now in development for launch in the coming years and a forecast of those due to be launched by 2027; > A combination of primary and secondary research to characterize the North America changes that have occurred and may occur at two levels: the demand Asia MEA side of the market (i.e. the owner and operators of the satellites), and Latin America the supply side of the market (i.e. the industries and companies that develop and launch the satellites).

The four mass categories of the report

<10 kg 11-50 kg 51-250 kg 251-500 kg > Planet, Spire, Cicero > Cubesats >6U > OneWeb > Globalstar Examples > Brite, Nanosail > Satellogic > Skysat > Starlink 500 kg > Cubesats up to 6U > PlanetIQ > Kent Ridge > Grace-FO > Pearl > Microcarb > Cassiope > Ladee PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2018 – Approved for public release SCOPE AND DEFINITION

SIX TYPES OF ORBITS: SIX APPLICATIONS OF SMALLSATS:  LEO: Low Earth Orbit with altitudes up to8%2,000 km

• Earth Observation (EO): satellites for electro-optical and radar  SSO: Sun-Synchronous Orbit, a LEO9%synchronic with the Sun observation of the Earth, and for meteorology, both for operational  MEO: Medium Earth Orbit, altitudes between 2,000 km to 20,000 km and Earth-science research purposes.  GEO: Geostationary Earth Orbit, 35,786 km • Telecommunications (Satcom): satellites for commercial and government operators providing broadband communications.  HEO: Highly Elliptical Orbit  ESC: deep space, Lagrange points • Information: satellites providing narrowband communications services (IOT & M2M) and collecting data from ground, aerial and FIVE TYPES OF LAUNCHERS: Defined by the payload capability to LEO: atmospheric sensors (e.g. AIS, ADS-B).  Micro: <500 Kg

• Security: satellites for space surveillance and tracking, missile early  Small: 500 Kg to 2 Tons warning, near-Earth object monitoring, electrical intelligence (ELINT), and space weather.  Medium: 2 Tons to 6 Tons

 Heavy: 6 Tons to 30 Tons • Technology: satellites, predominantly from government and academia, built to test new technologies (such as sensors and other  Super heavy: >30 Tons components); some technology satellites may serve in other application areas on a non-operational basis. 5 TYPES OF SATELLITE MANUFACTURERS: • Science & Exploration: satellites for astrophysics and astronomy,  Large integrators: also integrator of >500 kg satellite planetary science, heliophysics, and solar-terrestrial interactions.  Pure smallsat manufacturer: purely focused on smallsat

 In-house: operator building their own smallsat

 Academia: research or education institution mainly integrating COTS hardware

PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2018 – Approved for public release INTRODUCTION // OVERVIEW OF THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET FOR 2008-2017

TAKE AWAY FOR THE PAST DECADE 11 manufacturers $8.5B have built Market value 50% Manufacturing & launch of the satellites launched

5 launch vehicles 1,187 smallsats have lofted launched 60% 61T of the satellites launched launched

in 201 launches Smallsat market by client 46% Between 2008 and 2017 25% 22% 7%

Commercial Academic Government Defense PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2018 – Approved for public release INTRODUCTION // 2017 FOR THE SMALLSAT INDUSTRY

Smallsats 2017 was a record year for the Was the largest operator industry with 44% of all the < 10 kg 11 to 50 kg smallsats launched 295 16

51 to 250 kg 14 Satellites >500 Kg 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 251 to 500 kg 5

EO was the 1st application 330 smallsats launched in 2017 with 2/3 of 5 t of which 65% for constellations the demand of smallsats

Accounting for 1% of the total With 231 units, PSLV was the most used mass launched U.S. are the 1st launcher with 133 smallsats country launched of which 102 in one flight, a new world record

M&A was the biggest M&A of the year Soyuz was the most available launcher with 3 flights

PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2018 – Approved for public release * With a launch mass < 500 kg INTRODUCTION // OVERVIEW OF THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET FOR 2018-2027

Smallsat manufacturing market value

7,038 73% Constellations of the demand will will account for Smallsats concentrated in 80% of the North America and future demand To be launched by Asia in units 2027

Smallsat market by application 800 Smallsat demand Constellation 700 is experiencing a 600 500 increase 400 x6 300 200 Single satellite mission 100 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Earth observation Technology Telecommunication

PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2018 – Approved for public release EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The smallsats (<500 kg satellites) market is going through significant expansion in terms of both capabilities and demand. 2017 was a record year with 330 smallsats launched, a 69% increase from the maximum of 195 units reported in 2014. Past year and current year are critical for the smallsat industry with the completion of Planet’s constellation deployment, the launch of the prototypes for the mega telecom constellations and maiden flights of several micro launchers. In the last two years, numerous companies have developed satellite solutions, largely based on constellation projects, to deliver better services and reach out to new users. These solutions are supported by new ventures/entrepreneurs investing in the so-called “new or adaptive” space environment. The objectives of the many low-cost constellations in development are to provide global connectivity from a single system (Telecom segment), high-frequency change detection (Earth Observation segment), and low data rate/narrowband for data collection from ground sensors like remote devices and vehicles (Information segment). The Information segment is critical for the emerging Internet of Things (IoT) and Machine to Machine (M2M) communication, as well as air and sea traffic monitoring systems including AIS or ADS-B. The market is aided by the advances in satellite system miniaturization permitted by new technologies and by those in related sectors, particularly in computational technology and data analytics. As a result, smallsats are now providing operational services that were previously achievable only through heavier satellites.

Over the next 10 years, Euroconsult anticipates that about 7,000 smallsats will be launched, at an average of 580/year by 2022 growing to an average of 820/year by 2027. Euroconsult’s forecast for the next ten years increased by +13% over last edition of this report highlighting the untapped potential of several applications and regions of the world. Future smallsat market will be driven by the rollout of several constellations, mainly for commercial operators for Earth observation, communication and data collection services. Constellations will account for 82% of the 7,000 smallsats to be launched. Constellations is a cyclical market with strong year-to-year variations driven by their initial deployment in batches within a short period of time in order to begin services as soon as possible. The market for single satellites (about 1,250 units) is more distributed over time.

Most of future smallsats (i.e. 82%) will be launched into LEO. Telecom constellations in LEO allow for global mobile connectivity at low latency. Sun- synchronous orbit (SSO) will be the main destination for Earth observation satellites. The geostationary orbit is increasingly used as injection orbit for scientific and exploration missions beyond Earth Orbit.

A total of 1,187 smallsats was launched from 2008 to 2017, i.e. an average of about 120 units by year. Most of them (54%) were launched during the last three years, mainly for Planet and for academic purposes. The dominant application of smallsat was Earth observation with proof-of-concept and first constellations’ deployments. In the future, smallsats will continue to be used for Earth observation plus satellite communication as several constellations are launched for broadband and narrowband communications. • Earth Observation will increase significantly, from 540 units in the past to 1,400 satellites anticipated from 2018 to 2027. Three companies alone plan to launch more than 800 satellites during this period: Planet, Spire, and BlackSky; • Broadband Satellite Communication should have the strongest growth with close to 3,500 satellites expected from 2018 to 2027 (of which 92% for OneWeb and SpaceX’s Starlink) vs. only 53 units in the past; • Information includes the constellations that provide narrowband services for AIS, ADS-B, Internet of Things, or Machine to Machine communication. It is a growing market with 850 smallsats from several companies raising funds or launching demonstrators within the next two years. Examples include Sky & Space, AstroCast, and Kepler. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The 1,187 smallsats that were launched between 2008 and 2017 have an estimated total market value of $8.3 billion (including manufacture and launch cost). The 7,038 smallsat that are due to be launched over 2018-2027 are valued at $38 billion, i.e. almost a quintupling decade-to-decade. The smaller growth in market value relatively to that in smallsats count (i.e. a sextupling) reflects the growing penetration of low-cost smallsat for 1) cubesats and nanosats below 50 kg of launch mass and 2) for large scale constellation with satellite unit cost of $1 to 1.5 million. Cubesats alone represent a mere 4% of future total market value.

Satellite manufacturing will represent 58% of the $38 billion future market, i.e. $22 billion, with the reminder for launch services. Most of the smallsat manufacturing market is placed with large or small integrators that are independent of the operators of the satellites. In-house manufacturing remains the rule for most of satellites below <50 kg and for academic cubesats.

SpaceX’s Starlink and OneWeb’s mega-constellation projects concentrate most satellites, mass, and market value. However, they are not representative of the industry as a whole, which is highly diverse as many operators, start-ups, universities, and emerging countries are accessing space for the first time, thanks to smallsats’ growing affordability and capabilities.

Miniaturization and technology improvements offer smallsat customers the choice between increasingly lighter satellites (at equivalent performance) or more capable satellites with mass increase because of improved capabilities (lifetime, propulsion, stabilization). Thanks to these improvements, cubesats are now able to deliver operational services while, in the heaviest mass category, 500 kg satellites can deliver more than some 1-ton satellites were doing in the past.

The 1,187 smallsats that were launched between 2008 and 2017 totaled nearly 62 tons of launch mass. While satellites under 10 kg represented about 70% of the total count, they represented only 5% of the mass. In the next ten years, this mass category will account for 31% of all smallsats and 1% of total mass. At the opposite, satellites from 250 to 500 kg represented only 7% of the total count, but 52% of the mass. In the future, this mass category will grow to 31% in number of satellites and 72% in launch mass.

The launch services of smallsats are expected to generate $16 billion in the next ten years i.e. a strong growth over past decade. Growth in launch revenues is stronger than that of satellite manufacturing with more diversity in launch services and various quality of services. Smallsat operators currently launch with medium to heavy launchers that are contracted directly or through launch brokers. Several dedicated smallsat launchers are in development, in order to be more responsive to market needs (on time, on orbit) but at the expense of a premium in specific price (price per kg into orbit).

THE WORLD SMALLSAT MARKET OVER TWO DECADES (according to Euroconsult’s 2018 forecast) 2008–2017 2018–2027 Growth rate SATELLITES LAUNCHED & TO BE LAUNCHED 1,187 satellites 7,038 satellites x 6 TOTAL MASS LAUNCHED & TO BE LAUNCHED 62 tons 1,145 tons x 18 SMALLSAT INDUSTRY REVENUE FOR THE DECADE $8.5 billion $38.2 billion x 4.5 MANUFACTURING REVENUE FOR THE DECADE $5.8 billion $22.5 billion x 3.9 LAUNCH REVENUE FOR THE DECADE $2.7 billion $15.7 billion x 5,8 STRATEGIC ISSUES HARDWARE FOCUS - MOST CRITICAL ADVANCES IN SUBSYSTEMS

STRUCTURE & MECHANISMS: Smallsats benefit from some structure standardization, such as multiuse platforms. However, satellite platforms are not truly recurring products, and modifications certainly will be needed in order to adapt to each mission’s requirements. Aluminum alloys generally are used for the structures of the smallsats due to their reliability and strength. In larger satellite missions, composites have been used increasingly, but their cost is still a barrier for smaller missions. 3-D-printed structures, could be a revolution. The tests performed for cubesat structures highlight the porosity issue that has to be solved in order to minimize outgassing, mainly in EO missions using lenses or mirrors. Regarding mechanisms, the development of MEMS is helping miniaturize some subsystems, such as deployable solar panels or steerable antennas developed by Oxford Space Systems. In this way, pyrotechnic devices are avoided wherever possible, due to their potential hazards, so other types of releasing systems, like springs or STRUCTURE & sophisticated MEMS, are used. MECHANISMS

THERMAL

OBDH

AOCS PLATFORM

PROPULSION SMALLSAT

COMMUNICATIONS THERMAL SUBSYSTEM: For smallsats, passive thermal control systems are used widely. Current passive systems POWER include multilayer insulation (MLI) and beta cloth, miniaturized heat and loop heat pipes, thermal coating with white and black polyurethane paint and tape, bolts, washers, fillers and spacers. Aluminum panels also PAYLOAD dissipate overheat. Active thermal control systems (e.g., heaters, cryo-coolers) are more complex and require more power and mass. Notably, there exists a future demand for GROUND STATION cooling system miniaturization to be used in specific Picture credit: SSTL smallsat missions requiring fine thermal stabilization, such as IR cameras or other hyperspectral payloads. PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2018 – Approved for public release SMALLSAT DEMAND OPERATOR BY REGION // NORTH AMERICA NORTH AMERICA TO DOMINATE FUTURE DEMAND North American smallsat future demand North America is expected to launch 5,081 smallsats in the next 10 years, i.e. 72% of the overall future demand. 89% of these satellites will be for By type of users commercial use. They are almost exclusively part of the projected 20+ commercial constellations. The four constellations of Spire, Planet, OneWeb and Starlink alone should account for 88% of the commercial smallsats to be launched in North America. Outside of constellations, 91 commercial satellites are expected by 2027, i.e. twice more compared to the previous decade. Newcomers are more and more inclined to use smallsats for various applications, including new commercial usage, like Elysium Space’s burial project. Academic operators will launch 268 units, the majority of which are cubesat projects, and civilian institutions will launch 152 satellites, 45 of which will be operated by NASA. The U.S. DoD’s share will only represent 3% of the total number, compared to 19% of the $23.2 billion value in North America. Commercial projects should generate $16.9 billion in 2018-2027 in this region. The average price to manufacture and launch a commercial smallsat is estimated at $3.7 million, compared to $28 million for military, $10.6 million for civil satellites and $1.2 million for academic satellites. By application TELECOM WILL BE THE LARGEST APPLICATION Comsats will represent 65% (3,306 units) of the units to be launched by 2027 in North America, and are majorly from OneWeb and SpaceX’s broadband satellites. Earth observation is the second largest application at 1,065 satellites. Most are these are part of commercial constellations of various sizes, from the six Scout satellites (DigitalGlobe) to the 500+ Flock satellites (Planet). Information satellites, totaling 124, are solely commercial, and include HawkEye for traffic & spectrum monitoring, and other M2M cubesat projects. The remaining three applications comprise of 89 smallsats for security, driven by DARPA’s Blackjack project willing to use a commercial smallsat platform, more than 400 smallsat for technology and demonstration (mainly for academic usage), and 69 units for Science and Exploration projects, mostly launched by NASA and universities. Together, telecom and Earth observation will account for 86% of the future North American market, at $13.7 billion and $3.9 billion, respectively. Due to the low price of information satellites, weighing 10 kg or less, this application appears at 0.6% of the total market value, while the 90 PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET // AN EXTRACT forecasted Security satellites would represent 11%, with a unit cost © Euroconsult 2018 – Approved for public release approaching $28 million. ABOUT EUROCONSULT // CONSULTING & RESEARCH REPORTS

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