PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET 4th edition A GLOBAL SUPPLY & DEMAND ANALYSIS OF GOVERNMENT & COMMERCIAL SATELLITES UP TO 500 KG – AN EXTRACT A Euroconsult Executive Report - 2018 PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2018 – Approved for public release WHO WE ARE / WHAT WE DO TRAINING PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2018 – Approved for public release ABOUT THIS RESEARCH REPORT SCOPE Prospects for the small satellite market presents the various factors that will drive/inhibit growth in demand for small satellites (<500 kg) over the next 10 years. This report considers satellites by four mass categories, six regions, six satellite applications and five manufacturer typologies. EXTENSIVE FIGURES & ANALYSIS FOR THE COMING DECADE All Euroconsult research has, at its core, data derived from over 30 years of tracking all levels of the satellite/space value chain. To this we add dozens of dedicated industry interviews each year, along with the continual refinement of our data models, and the collection and interpretation of company press releases and financial filings. Our consultants have decades of experience interpreting and analyzing our proprietary databases in light of the INCLUDED IN THIS PRODUCT broader value chain. When you purchase research from Euroconsult, you receive Forecast up to 2027 in units and value thousands of data points and the expert interpretation of what this means for specific verticals and sectors of the satellite value chain, including forecasts based on years of data and highly refined All segments of the value chain reviewed models. This report contains thousands of data points. Purchase the report at our online shop Satellite forecast database included PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2018 – Approved for public release REPORT’S TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 02\ SMALLSAT DEMAND 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 41 MASS CATEGORIES 6 SMALLSAT DEFINITIONS & SCOPE 45 OPERATOR BY REGION 8 ACRONYMS 51 OPERATOR TYPE 9 METHODOLOGY 55 BY APPLICATION 10 LESSONS LEARNED 61 FOCUS ON TELECOM CONSTELLATIONS New 11 SPECIFIC METHODOLOGY FOR CONSTELLATIONS New 63 FOCUS ON EARTH OBSERVATION CONSTELLATIONS New 65 FOCUS ON INFORMATION CONSTELLATIONS New 01\ STRATEGIC ISSUES AND FORECAST FOR THE SMALLSAT INDUSTRY 03\ SMALLSAT SUPPLY // MANUFACTURING 14 MAJOR CHANGES SINCE LAST EDITION 15 TRENDS IN SMALL SATELLITE MANUFACTURING & LAUNCH SERVICES 69 MAIN SMALL SATELLITE INTEGRATORS AROUND THE WORLD New 20 CONSOLIDATED FIGURES FOR THREE METRICS 70 DISTRIBUTION OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY BY REGION New 21 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // STREAMLINING IN THE VALUE CHAIN 71 MANUFACTURING MARKET VALUE BY REGION 22 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // CONSTELLATIONS 72 MANUFACTURING MARKET VALUE BY ORGANIZATION 23 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // INVESTMENT TRENDS New 74 TO BUILD IN-HOUSE? 24 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS New 75 SATELLITE PLATFORM DIVERSIFICATION 25 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // SUSTAINABILITY OF THE DEMAND New 76 CUBESAT PLATFORM PROVIDERS 26 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // US GOV. POLICY New 77 MAIN COMMERCIAL SMALLSAT INTEGRATORS 27 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // GOV. INVOLVEMENT (OUTSIDE THE U.S.) 28 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // U.S. EXPORT CONTROL & REGULATIONS 04\ LAUNCH SERVICES 29 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // A GROWING VALUE CHAIN New 30 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // VERTICAL INTEGRATION New 85 LAUNCH RATES & ORBITS 31 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT New 86 LAUNCHERS’ SEGMENTATION 32 SMALLSAT MARKET DRIVERS // DESIGN EVOLUTION & VALUE 87 PERFORMANCE OF MAIN LAUNCH SERVICE SUPPLIERS New DISTRIBUTION New 89 DISTRIBUTION OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY BY REGION New 33 HARDWARE FOCUS - MOST CRITICAL ADVANCES IN SUBSYSTEMS 90 LAUNCH SERVICES MARKET VALUE 34 SOFTWARE FOCUS New 91 LAUNCH MARKET VALUE BY ORGANIZATION 92 PRICE & CAPACITY FROM VARIOUS LAUNCH SOLUTIONS 93 UPCOMING SMALLSAT DEDICATED LAUNCHERS New 94 SMALLSAT DEDICATED LAUNCHERS & CONSTELLATION DEMAND New 95 LAUNCH BROKERING MARKET PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2018 – Approved for public release SCOPE AND DEFINITION METHODOLOGY SEGMENTATION The objective of this report is to provide a better understanding of the The report considers satellites across four mass categories, six regions, six small satellite (smallsat) market, a specific segment of the space industry applications, and four operators’ types. that is experiencing significant changes. This report presents Euroconsult’s The four mass categories between 1 kg and 500 kg of launch mass are view of the various factors that will drive/inhibit growth in smallsat presented below. The six regions are presented below. The applications’ demand over the next 10 years. All demand drivers have been considered: segmentation is presented next page. > Applications and missions of smallsat systems; The four categories of operators are: > Operators and users of smallsats; - Commercial: private sector companies selling satellite-based services > Technology changes affecting both platforms and payloads; - Civil government: civilian government organizations > Implications for the manufacturing and the launch businesses. - Defense: military government organizations - Academic: research and education organizations Euroconsult’s forecast of the smallsats to be launched over the next 10 years (2018 to 2027) has been developed from a qualitative and quantitative analysis conducted with two sources: The six regions of the report > A database of all satellites from 1 kg to 500kg of launch mass that were Russia & CIS launched from 2008 to 2017. The database also includes nominatively Europe the satellites now in development for launch in the coming years and a forecast of those due to be launched by 2027; > A combination of primary and secondary research to characterize the North America changes that have occurred and may occur at two levels: the demand Asia MEA side of the market (i.e. the owner and operators of the satellites), and Latin America the supply side of the market (i.e. the industries and companies that develop and launch the satellites). The four mass categories of the report <10 kg 11-50 kg 51-250 kg 251-500 kg > Planet, Spire, Cicero > Cubesats >6U > OneWeb > Globalstar Examples > Brite, Nanosail > Satellogic > Skysat > Starlink 500 kg > Cubesats up to 6U > PlanetIQ > Kent Ridge > Grace-FO > Pearl > Microcarb > Cassiope > Ladee PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2018 – Approved for public release SCOPE AND DEFINITION SIX TYPES OF ORBITS: SIX APPLICATIONS OF SMALLSATS: LEO: Low Earth Orbit with altitudes up to8%2,000 km • Earth Observation (EO): satellites for electro-optical and radar SSO: Sun-Synchronous Orbit, a LEO9%synchronic with the Sun observation of the Earth, and for meteorology, both for operational MEO: Medium Earth Orbit, altitudes between 2,000 km to 20,000 km and Earth-science research purposes. GEO: Geostationary Earth Orbit, 35,786 km • Telecommunications (Satcom): satellites for commercial and government operators providing broadband communications. HEO: Highly Elliptical Orbit ESC: deep space, Lagrange points • Information: satellites providing narrowband communications services (IOT & M2M) and collecting data from ground, aerial and FIVE TYPES OF LAUNCHERS: Defined by the payload capability to LEO: atmospheric sensors (e.g. AIS, ADS-B). Micro: <500 Kg • Security: satellites for space surveillance and tracking, missile early Small: 500 Kg to 2 Tons warning, near-Earth object monitoring, electrical intelligence (ELINT), and space weather. Medium: 2 Tons to 6 Tons Heavy: 6 Tons to 30 Tons • Technology: satellites, predominantly from government and academia, built to test new technologies (such as sensors and other Super heavy: >30 Tons components); some technology satellites may serve in other application areas on a non-operational basis. 5 TYPES OF SATELLITE MANUFACTURERS: • Science & Exploration: satellites for astrophysics and astronomy, Large integrators: also integrator of >500 kg satellite planetary science, heliophysics, and solar-terrestrial interactions. Pure smallsat manufacturer: purely focused on smallsat In-house: operator building their own smallsat Academia: research or education institution mainly integrating COTS hardware PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2018 – Approved for public release INTRODUCTION // OVERVIEW OF THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET FOR 2008-2017 TAKE AWAY FOR THE PAST DECADE 11 manufacturers $8.5B have built Market value 50% Manufacturing & launch of the satellites launched 5 launch vehicles 1,187 smallsats have lofted launched 60% 61T of the satellites launched launched in 201 launches Smallsat market by client 46% Between 2008 and 2017 25% 22% 7% Commercial Academic Government Defense PROSPECTS FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE MARKET // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2018 – Approved for public release INTRODUCTION // 2017 FOR THE SMALLSAT INDUSTRY Smallsats 2017 was a record year for the Was the largest operator industry with 44% of all the < 10 kg 11 to 50 kg smallsats launched 295 16 51 to 250 kg 14 Satellites >500 Kg 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 251 to 500 kg 5 EO was the 1st application 330 smallsats launched in 2017 with 2/3 of 5 t of which 65% for constellations the demand of smallsats Accounting for 1% of the total With 231 units, PSLV was the most used mass launched U.S. are the 1st launcher with 133 smallsats country launched of which