Spacex's Expanding Launch Manifest

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October 2013

SpaceX’s expanding launch manifest

China’s growing military might Servicing satellites in space A PUBLICATION OF THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF AERONAUTICS AND ASTRONAUTICS * 2220-&* +) %

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DEPARTMENTS COMMENTARY 3 Russian rocket engines forever? INTERNATIONAL BEAT 4 Business aviation: Contraction, then recovery. WASHINGTON WATCH 6 Governing in spite of gridlock.

CONVERSATIONS 8 Page 6 With Loren Thompson. SPACE UPDATE 12 Space station repair: How it’s done. Page 16 ENGINEERING NOTEBOOK 16 Space science GOLD: A payload trend? OUT OF THE PAST 42 CAREER OPPORTUNITIES 44

Page 20 FEATURES CHINA’S GROWING MILITARY MIGHT 20 China’s continuing military modernization is strengthening its ability to wage war in new and expanding areas including cyberspace. by James W. Canan

NEO THREATS: HOMELAND SECURITY FOR PLANET EARTH 28 Detecting celestial bodies and deflecting them from orbits that cross ours will take technology and international cooperation. by Leonard David

SERVICING SATELLITES IN SPACE 36 Despite complex challenges, the U.S. and several other countries are pursuing the use of robots for on-orbit satellite servicing. Page 28 by Marc Selinger

BULLETIN AIAA Meeting Schedule B2 AIAA Courses and Training Program B4 AIAA News B5

COVER A Falcon 9 rocket leaves the hangar at Cape Canaveral, prior to lofting a Dragon capsule toward the ISS. Read all about the Falcon's remarkable record by turning to page 12. Photo courtesy SpaceX. Page 36

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Elaine J. Camhi Editor-in-Chief Patricia Jefferson Associate Editor Greg Wilson Russian rocket engines forever? Production Editor Jerry Grey, Editor-at-Large Toward the end of the last century, U.S. development of large liquid-propellant Christine Williams, Editor AIAA Bulletin rocket engines had come to a complete standstill. As pointed out by then-NASA Administrator Dan Goldin, the only such engine developed by the U.S. in the Correspondents previous three decades had been the space shuttle main engine (SSME). Robert F. Dorr, Washington Philip Butterworth-Hayes, Europe Thus was the stage set for the introduction of Russian rocket technology. In April 1992, the president of Russian engine developer Energomash visited Contributing Writers General Dynamics Space Systems Division (GDSSD), builder of the venerable Richard Aboulafia, James W. Canan, Atlas vehicle that had launched our first astronauts into orbit. He told division Marco Cáceres, Craig Covault, Leonard president Mike Wynne that for $100,000 Energomash would design and David, Philip Finnegan, Edward Goldstein, develop for the Atlas a half-scale derivative of the RD-170, which was a Tom Jones, Chris Kjelgaard, James Oberg, David Rockwell, J.R. Wilson 1.7-million-lb-thrust liquid oxygen (Lox)-kerosene first-stage engine for Zenit and Energia. Since Atlas 2’s three Rocketdyne MA-5A engines, with a combined Fitzgerald Art & Design thrust of only 490,000 lb, were barely able to get the Atlas-2 off the pad, Wynne Art Direction and Design understandably jumped at the chance to obtain access at such low cost to Russia’s proven oxygen-rich closed-cycle technology in an engine that would Michael Griffin, President deliver 860,000 lb of thrust at 15-20% higher efficiency than the MA-5A. Thus Sandra H. Magnus, Publisher Craig Byl, Manufacturing and Distribution was born the RD-180, which first flew on an Atlas 3 in 2000. In 1997 GDSSD successor Lockheed Martin (LM) ordered 101 RD-180s from Energomash for STEERING COMMITTEE about $1 billion and negotiated an exclusive agreement for U.S. sales. Col. Neal Barlow, USAF Academy; But LM’s biggest customer for the subsequent Atlas 5 was the USAF, which Carol Cash, Carol Cash & Associates; was not happy with relying on a Russian-built engine for half its Evolved Brian D. Dailey; Basil Hassan, Sandia; Expendable Launch Vehicle fleet. So Energomash teamed with Pratt & Whitney Robert E. Lindberg, National Institute of Aerospace; Vigor Yang, Georgia Institute of to create a U.S. company, RD Amross, to duplicate RD-180 production. Technology; Susan X. Ying; Boeing However, Amross had great difficulty getting the detailed specifications for materials and machining processes, because although the Russian documentation EDITORIAL BOARD was truly meticulous (each part had a ‘passport’ that accompanied it through Ned Allen, Jean-Michel Contant, every step in manufacture), it was very different from U.S. practice. Moreover, Eugene Covert, L.S. “Skip” Fletcher, much of the detailed materials information and ‘tricks’ of the machining Michael Francis, Cam Martin, Don Richardson, Douglas Yazell processes were in the heads of the skilled Russian workmen, to which Amross did not have access. ADVERTISING So although Amross remains the U.S. marketing agent for Energomash- Robert Silverstein, 240.498.9674 produced RD-180s, it never achieved the desired U.S. manufacturing capability. [email protected] Nevertheless, the RD-180’s great success (43 flawless launches on Atlas 3 and 5) Russell Brody 732.832.2977 stimulated Orbital Sciences to file suit last June against United Launch Alliance, [email protected] which had inherited parent LM’s exclusivity agreement for RD-180s. Orbital would like the RD-180 for its new Antares launcher, which currently uses a Send materials to Craig Byl, AIAA, 1801 derivative of the other mainstream Russian Lox-kerosene engine, the NK-33, Alexander Bell Drive, Suite 500, Reston, VA modified and currently being sold by Aerojet-Rocketdyne as the AJ-26. 20191-4344. Changes of address should be But where are the U.S. engines in this now highly restricted field of sent by e-mail at [email protected], or by fax opportunity? The only current candidates are Rocketdyne’s remodeled SSMEs at 703.264.7606. slated for the new Space Launch System and the RS-68s currently used on Send correspondence to [email protected]. Boeing’s Delta 4. But both these are fueled by liquid hydrogen, which has October 2013, Vol. 51, No. 9 operational limitations compared with kerosene. The only new Lox-kerosene prospects on the horizon are the current attempt by Aerojet Rocketdyne and Dynetics to resurrect the half-century-old Apollo-era F-1, and the far-future million-lb-thrust AJ-1E6 engine concept being promoted by Aerojet Rocketdyne for the eventual upgrade of the yet-to-be-born SLS. Not much of a heritage for a once-dominant U.S. technology. Could it be because there’s only one U.S. liquid-propellant rocket company left? Jerry Grey Editor-at-Large Business aviation: Contraction, then recovery

THE EUROPEAN BUSINESS AVIATION Counterintuitive trend covery, external demand is set to re- market will return to growth in 2014, The increased demand for larger air- main the predominant growth driver, with demand for new aircraft and craft appears somewhat counterintu- while multiple headwinds continue to flights led by customers wanting to itive, given the fragile nature of the weigh on domestic demand. As a re- travel long distances from countries on continent’s economy. Gamba suggests sult, annual GDP in 2013 is projected the periphery of the continent. Mean- that one reason is the need for long- to decrease marginally in the EU and while, for the rest of this year, the mar- haul performance to connect Europe’s contract by 0.5% in the euro area. For ket will contract further. corporations to the stronger perform- 2014, GDP growth is forecast at 1.5% That appears to be the consensus ing global markets in Latin America, in the EU and 1.25% in the euro area.” among manufacturers, operators, and South Africa, and the Far East. There The good news is that recovery other industry stakeholders as they an- are other factors as well. According to looks likely not just in the core area of alyze the traffic figures and trends for Julian Burrell of business jet charter the continent—business aviation activ- the year so far. The core business avi- company Vertis Aviation (U.K.), there ity in Europe is centered around Ger- ation market within the EU is still bat- is also a burgeoning market for long- many, France, the U.K., Italy, and tling against stagnant or weak eco- haul business jet travel from entrepre- Spain—but also in the southern part of nomic growth and prolonged austerity neurs in Russia and the Middle East. the continent, where leisure routes are programs. Outside the Eurozone econ- This trend is supported by industry particularly important during the sum- omies, however, the demand for busi- data. According to Avinode, “The en- mer months. Portugal’s GDP expanded ness jet services is growing stronger. try-level, light, superlight, and midsize 1.1% in the second quarter of this year “Among those countries reporting jet categories have shown minor de- over the same period in 2012. more than 3,000 business jet move- clines in the first four months of 2013, “Even in the south the trends are ments per year, Turkey, Ireland, and while the super midsize and heavy jet positive,” says Gamba. “Greece‘s econ- Sweden have shown the most year- categories have shown some growth. omy looks to be much better in 2013 over-year growth in the first four The one persistent standout is the ul- than in 2012. Italy is coming to terms months of 2013,” says Swedish-based tralong-range jet category, which has with the recession; Spain remains dif- market consultancy Avinode. “On the shown a 10% increase in actual flight ficult with the unemployment rate, but other end of the scale the Czech Re- movements during the period.” even there, in terms of movements, public, Greece, and Poland have re- And according to an analysis of we are now seeing [that] Spain and ported the largest declines.” business aviation movements collected Italy are almost back to the European According to Fabio Gamba, CEO by Brussels-based air traffic manage- norm. That is why we think 2014, un- of the European Business Aviation As- ment agency Eurocontrol, the first few less there is a major unforeseen event, sociation (EBAA), “This year is going months of this year saw a 4.3% decline will be a positive year.” to be another year of contraction.” in intra-European business jet move- Although modest, these are wel- The degree of decline, he says, will be ments over 2012, while flights from Eu- come trends in the right direction for the same as last year’s, “between 3% ropean destinations to the rest of the Europe’s economies, where austerity and 4% fewer business aviation move- world rose 3.8% over last year. measures have had a direct impact on ments than the year before. But we the market. For example, the Italian believe that 2014 will be a positive Driving forces government committed to reducing year. We’re seeing general improve- The key driver for business aviation the number of business aviation hours ments in gross domestic product fig- demand is the performance of the Eu- flown by state employees by 5,000 ures from EU member states, and ropean economy, which points in a hours a year from pre-austerity levels countries on the periphery of the con- positive direction for 2014. According to this year, an equivalent of 1% of the tinent, such as Turkey and Ukraine, to the EC: “After the recession that country’s total annual movements, are proving to be the real locomotives marked the year 2012, the EU econ- says Gamba. for growth….Longer haul aircraft ser- omy is forecast to stabilize slowly in This means the lag between GDP vices—such as those provided by Das- the course of the first half of 2013. A recovery and a rise in business avia- sault Falcon 2000s and Gulfstream noticeable expansion in GDP is ex- tion movements is likely to be longer models—are now responsible for one- pected to set in only in the second in Europe than in North America. This third of all movements, and this is half of the year, but growth should is especially true given the difficult im- growing a percentage while the lower pick up at moderate speed in 2014. age the industry has in Europe, which end of the market continues to suffer.” On the back of a global economic re- has caused European companies to be

4 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 far more conservative in their use of “Much of the apparent resilience tion traffic growth will range between business jet travel. For the period of shown by local operators in the face 3% and 5% between 2014 and 2018. January to April this year, European of eroding economic conditions is ac- This compares to an average monthly business jet departures have declined tually just the result of geographical 4.4% decline in traffic movements 6.4% from 2011, according Avinode. definition,” says an October 2012 busi- measured between August 2012 and While Europe has faced two consecu- ness aviation market survey by Hon- July of this year. tive years of decline, the U.S. market eywell. “Russia, with strong local pur- has enjoyed two years of growth. chasing ambitions, is included in this region, as are the Central and Eastern Given the depth and longevity of the Breaking it down European states, which are generally recession in Europe, these seem like For the moment, however, Europe re- more economically robust. Ancillary modest increases. But as the demand mains the second-largest business avi- data from the Western European por- for new aircraft in Europe will fall ation market in the world, behind that tion of the region conjure an environ- heavily within the high-value, long- of the U.S. At the May European Busi- ment of slowing activity and demand, range sector of the market, these new ness Aviation Convention and Exhibi- strongly influenced by complex prob- purchases will account for an impor- tion in Geneva, Hawker Beechcraft lems such as higher unemployment, tant share, by value, of the global mar- issued a study of this market. It sug- high government debt, and negligible ket. There may well be another round gested that there are 3,773 business growth.” of consolidation in the European busi- aircraft (turboprops and jets) in Eu- But from 2014 Europe should be ness jet operator market before the re- rope, with Germany hosting the big- back to a prolonged period of growth covery finally takes hold, but for the gest fleet—621 aircraft, a 16% share— in the current economically chal- moment, at least, all signs point to a followed by the U.K., with 503 aircraft lenged EU segment of the market as sustained recovery beginning in 2014. (13%), then France, with 344 (9%). well as the vibrant periphery. Accord- Philip Butterworth-Hayes Another forecast produced at the ing to EBAA and Eurocontrol fore- Brighton, U.K. event, by JetNet iQ, predicted that casts, European CAGR business avia- [email protected] over the next 10 years up to 1,741 jets (19% of the global market) will go to European customers, increasing the Events Calendar continent’s business jet fleet to about OCT. 14-17 4,300 aircraft by 2022, a 56% rise from Thirty-first AIAA International Communications Satellite Systems the current fleet. Conference and 19th Ka and Broadband Communications, Navigation, According to Bombardier’s latest and Earth Observations Conference. Florence, Italy. forecasts, Europe will remain the Contact: www.icssc2013.org world’s second-largest market for business jets, with 1,700 aircraft deliveries OCT. 16-17 between 2012 and 2021, and 2,220 de- International Symposium for Personal and Commercial Spaceflight. liveries between 2022 and 2031. The Las Cruces, New Mexico. fleet will increase at a compound an- Contact: 575-646-6414; [email protected] nual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% from OCT. 21-24 1,890 aircraft in 2011 to 5,125 aircraft International Telemetering Conference. Las Vegas, Nevada. by the end of 2031. Contact: Lena Moran, 575/415-5172; www.telemetry.org This is one of the anomalies in the OCT. 24-25 European business jet market—deliveries seem to bear only a passing rela- Satellite Communications. Fukuoka, Japan. tionship to movements. According to Contact: Fumihiro Yamashita, [email protected]; EBAA’s own figures, the continent’s www.leice.org/cs/sat/jpn/purpose_e.html business aviation fleet grew from just NOV. 3-7 under 2,500 aircraft in 2008 to 3,078 Twenty-second International Congress of Mechanical Engineering. aircraft by the end of 2012, at a time Ribeirao Preto, Brazil. when the industry—as measured by Contact: Joao Luiz F. Azevedo, [email protected]; movements—was undergoing a severe www.abcm.org.br/cobem2013 contraction. It will be 2017, according NOV. 5-7 to EBAA’s most recent estimates, be- 2013 Aircraft Survivability Technical Forum. Monterey, California. fore business aviation movements Contact: Laura Yuska, 703/247-2596; www.ndia.org/meetings/4940 climb back to their 2008 levels.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 5 Governing in spite of gridlock

WITH MEMBERS OF CONGRESS WRAP- be most painful among senior execu- will be implemented without defer- ping up their five-week recess, few tives, whose ranks include many engi- ence to the budget situation. lawmakers were in the nation’s capital neers and scientists, and says they The Dept. of Justice under Attor- as the end of summer approached. would bring “degradation in morale.” ney General Eric Holder on August 13 Many legislators spent their break In responding to the budget crisis, took the unusual step of suing to on privately funded travels around the leaders in Washington uttered warn- block a planned $11-billion merger of globe—‘fact finding’ trips, their offices ings. At the height of the summer/au- American Airlines’ parent company, say, ‘boondoggles’ critics call them. As tumn wildfire season, with more than AMR, and US Airways Group. To- of late August, some 1,363 trips had 50 blazes burning throughout the gether the two would become the cost their hosts $3.2 million, according West, Forest Service chief Thomas Tid- world’s largest airline. The carriers had to LegiStorm, a nonpartisan watchdog well told reporters that some C-130 hoped to merge in August, but the an- group. Neither during recess nor after Hercules and CH-54 Skycrane fire- titrust suit puts their betrothal on hold, returning to Washington was Congress fighting aircraft might have to be with the court trial expected to begin expected to pass a budget for the fis- grounded because the service is run- November 12. cal year that began October 1. Ob- ning out of money. Former American chairman and servers say functioning without a Gen. Mark Welsh, Air Force chief CEO Robert Crandall—loathed and budget has become the ‘new normal,’ of staff, told U.S. airmen they should loved for inventing frequent flyer making it difficult for federal agencies not spend too much time worrying miles, which evolved into today’s re- to operate programs or make plans. about budget and planning uncertain- tail rewards programs—says the pro- Amid what CBS News’ Stephanie ties in Washington. His having spoken posed merger is “pro-competitive” and Condon described as “gridlock and ac- to troops about it confirms that it is a will produce a viable airline able to rimony,” lawmakers passed just 23 morale issue, but Welsh also cautioned serve the largest number of people at laws this year—including one to name that the Air Force, now at its lowest the lowest prices. Crandall calls the a bridge—while key issues such as af- strength since it became an independ- lawsuit a “mistake.” Others say the fordable health care and immigration ent service branch in 1947, will get merger is needed to provide competi- reform remain stalled. The legislature even smaller. tion to behemoths Delta and United. owes 12 spending bills to keep the Also on the ‘up’ side: The merger federal government in operation, and Going and going would allow the airlines to cut costs none has been enacted. “It’s clear that Budget crisis or not, the government by eliminating redundant departments we’re not going to have appropria- keeps going and going. While DOD and by being able to invest in new tions bills finished by September 30,” employees are being furloughed as an fuel-efficient planes that are more House Speaker John Boehner (R- economy move, other agencies— comfortable for consumers. Ohio) told reporters August 1. among them NASA, the FAA, and the Workers for three American Air- With or without a government National Transportation Safety Board— lines unions representing 55,000 em- shutdown in the interim, the feds were are keeping workers on duty full time. ployees favor the merger. American is expected to be operating under a con- Most everyday activities tinuing resolution in lieu of a tradi- of government, including tional budget after October 1. The air traffic control, space budget-cutting measure known as se- launches, and firefights questration would thus remain in ef- in Afghanistan, are con- fect, and federal agencies, especially tinuing as usual. As this the Dept. of Defense, would remain issue went to press, the under strong pressure to cut costs. Ac- executive and legisla- cording to a report by Tony Capaccio tive branches were de- of Bloomberg News, under an “execu- bating what to do about tion plan,” DOD would fire 6,272 of its upheaval and violence career civilian employees if, as ex- in Egypt and chemical pected, sequestration cuts $52 billion warfare in Syria. What- from the Pentagon’s FY14 funding. ever foreign policy de- The Justice Dept. is suing to block a planned merger of American The plan indicates that layoffs would cisions are made, they Airlines’ parent company, AMR, and US Airways Group.

6 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 in bankruptcy and announced in Feb- uling delays, cost overruns, and tech- ruary that it was cutting 13,000 jobs. nical glitches—as well as “organiza- The company showed a net loss of tional weaknesses,” says the Dept. of $1.7 billion for the first quarter of this Transportation inspector general’s of- calendar year. Management and work- fice—is making its debut in stages be- ers agree that only the merger can tween now and 2025. The system is bring American out of bankruptcy. beginning to bring U.S. air navigation But DOJ charges that the move up to the standard of that in Europe. would reduce competition on key By shifting from navigation based on routes. The GAO found that 1,665 ground radars to one that relies on routes between cities would lose one satellites, NextGen is expected eventu- competitor as a result of the merger, ally to provide U.S. airlines with fuel affecting 53 million passengers. There savings of $2.3 billion per year. is also the simple fact that consolida- The FAA and its administrator, tion of routes costs jobs and affects James Comey Michael Huerta, belong to Foxx’s de- communities’ surrounding airports. partment and added a new face to Douglas Kidd of the Washington- help get NextGen on the right flight based National Association of Airline path. Retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Ed- Passengers tells Aerospace America ward L. Bolton Jr. became the FAA’s the merger would be “especially trou- drones can be used only at certain al- assistant administrator for NextGen on bling” at Ronald Reagan Washington titudes and in certain locations al- August 24. Bolton is known in Penta- National Airport—a favorite of mem- lowed by the FAA. gon circles as a strong taskmaster and bers of Congress—because the newly Outgoing FBI boss Robert Mueller, is expected to improve management. formed airline would then own 55% of who is remarkably well liked—a dis- Using NextGen, aircraft no longer all departures from that location. tinction not everyone in the capital en- have to fly indirect routes to stay DOJ did not oppose the 2008 joys—was unusually candid in warning within range of ground radar stations. merger of Delta and Northwest, creat- about dangers from terrorism. Mueller Aircraft can continually broadcast ex- ing today’s Delta. Nor did Justice inter- told reporters, “My biggest worry is an act GPS readings, providing data for vene when United and Continental attack on a plane.” cockpit displays showing a plane’s rel- came together in 2010, forming to- Mueller, who took office a week ative position to other planes and day’s United. Critics say the depart- before the attacks of September 11, those planes’ flight paths. Being used ment has changed its standards. Only 2001, said both the nation’s aviation in fledgling stages at locations as dis- a judge’s ruling, around the end of the system and its cyber facilities are vul- parate as Seattle, Memphis, and New- year, will determine what happens to nerable. He warned of likely attacks ark, NextGen is clearly providing sav- the biggest airline merger in history. from lone actors like those in the Fort ings and efficiency. Hood massacre and in the Boston (Continued on page 13) New appointments Marathon bombings. Mueller’s leader- On July 26, the Senate voted 93-1 to ship is credited with foiling a 2010 confirm James Comey as director of plot to bomb cargo planes heading for the FBI and was sworn into office on the U.S. using explosives hidden in- September 4. Comey was a deputy at- side transistor devices. torney general in the George W. Bush Another recent change in Wash- administration. ington made Anthony Foxx, former The lone dissent—and a brief, sym- mayor of Charlotte, North Carolina, bolic hold on the nomination—came the secretary of transportation after his from Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) who has 100-0 Senate confirmation vote on concerns about FBI use of surveillance June 27. In this era of budget austerity, drones in the U.S. Foxx will be asked to produce new The law enforcement agency told solutions for the nation’s aging air- Paul it would seek a warrant before ports, highways, bridges, and overall using a drone in a situation where a infrastructure. One of his first actions suspect in a crime has a reasonable was to announce limited introduction expectation of privacy. Paul said he of the FAA’s NextGen navigation sys- was unsatisfied but would let the tem at a handful of airports in the U.S. Anthony Foxx nomination move ahead. Currently, NextGen, long plagued by sched-

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 7 Loren Thompson

How do you view our current na- here in terms of creating a society that biological or cyber threats. So I think tional security situation amid se- is utterly dependent on the Internet we need a different kind of organiza- questration and emerging threats? and on being able to communicate tional construct here to avoid getting Over the long term I am pes- electronically through networks. We overwhelmed by some future asym- simistic about our security situation, basically have made ourselves vulner- metric threat. We’re trying to make because there is such a proliferation of able to adversaries who don’t need everything fit into the framework that new technologies—digital, biological, bombers and aircraft carriers to take we’ve already built, and our current or whatever—that it seems to me some- us down. I think most people in the multiservices military department/de- thing is going to happen that signifi- business know this in the abstract, but fense agency structure will not be able cantly impairs the progress of civiliza- we are not exhibiting the urgency that to cope with a really ambitious cyber tion. I have a suspicion that it will we would expect from a society in challenge. happen sooner rather than later. danger. Do we draw from the past too much? Will we be able to handle whatever Do you advocate a radical restruc- Does that prevent us from taking a may happen? turing of the nation’s national secu- clear look at the future? In the near term, we have two ba- rity establishment? In general, I think that we as a so- sic problems. There is a profusion of Our armed services were con- ciety, as a civilization, are exhibiting new threats that we aren’t postured to ceived for another time. We still need many of the symptoms of decay that meet, and that weren’t even consid- many of the competencies that they are often associated with republics. ered 20 years ago, and it is hard to bring to the table, but they are not The big problem with republics is that know what the national security orga- postured for dealing with things like they tend to decay, as the Roman re- nizational construct should be to cope with all that. And we have constructed a welfare state that runs the danger of soaking up all the available resources Loren B. Thompson is COO of the nonprofit that might have been used for other Lexington Institute and CEO of Source purposes—defense or science or infra- Associates, a for-profit consultancy. structure or whatever—that are needed Previously, he was deputy director of to counter the threats. the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University and taught Is our national security establish- graduate-level courses in strategy, ment fully aware of the threats and technology, and media affairs at structured to meet them? Georgetown. He has also taught at The national security structure Harvard University’s Kennedy and the Pentagon in particular are in a School of Government. perpetual state of reorganization, but I have the impression that they are not Thompson holds doctoral and sufficiently committed to change so master’s degrees in government from that they can deal with all the likely Georgetown and a bachelor of science challenges that the global threat envi- degree in political science from ronment will pose. For example, we Northeastern University. He all know that cyber threats are poten- was born in 1951 and tially devastating to our society, but currently resides in when I look at the responses the Pen- McLean, Virginia, tagon has mounted, I feel as though and Plymouth, they are not being sufficiently urgent Massachusetts. or creative about how they are approaching this threat.

Elaborate on that. We are way, way out on a limb

8 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 Interview by James W. Canan

public did. Republics seem incapable it does. Its focus is not on investing Insufficient demand would make the of reforming themselves. In our case, sufficiently in making the right weap- industrial base wither and maybe we now have a system that seems to ons. We can’t rely on market incen- fade away? be mired in an accumulation of rules tives and market forces to buy the That’s right. The United States did and customs that are not very well kind of defense for the future that we not have a defense industry through suited to maintaining the vitality of our will need to have. most of its history, because the level civilization. We have a tax structure Just look at what has happened in of demand was too low. We got a de- that’s ridiculously complicated, a legal my lifetime—jet engines, computers, fense industry when the Cold War structure that’s acceptable only to the Internet, lasers all originated in came along and there was an unusu- those with wealth, and a military that’s government research. They would not ally elevated level of demand for focused on its signature combat sys- have come out of the private sector if weapons through two generations. If tems and not on what’s really needed the government had not intervened in we revert to the historic pattern prior for the future. providing the money to develop them. to the Cold War of low levels of de- There is a lot of unjustified optimism mand between wars, then we will not Where does the defense industry fit among believers in free markets that if be able to sustain a sufficiently large into that context? Or the aerospace we just organized ourselves correctly, defense industry. industry? issues like investment and infrastruc- The defense industry is a relatively ture would automatically be dealt with. How would you describe the trend? recent phenomenon in American his- I don’t believe that’s the case. I do The future of demand for defense tory. Before the Cold War, products will be driven first and we did not have a large, “We can’t rely on market incentives and foremost by the kinds of threats dedicated, private-sector we face and how we react to defense industry. What we market forces to buy the kind of defense them. I haven’t decided whether had was a mobilization for the future that we will need to have.” 9-11 was a detour from a down- model for General Motors ward trend or a turning point in and the rest of the com- defense demand. But it was mercial sector, which served us well not believe there is an automatic mar- pretty obvious for the first 10 years af- only if we went to war every genera- ket mechanism that could ever meet ter the Cold War ended that this sys- tion or so. our many needs. We are always going tem was reverting back to what it had Now we need a dedicated, full- to require government intervention to been before the Cold War started. time defense industry, but we have to make it happen, to have the right kind If that is indeed the case, then we reorganize how industrial America of economy and the right kind of de- are headed for a world in which Amer- works today. It is not driven by the fense structure for dealing with the ica’s defense industry is not all that ro- general good or by patriotism, it is challenges we face. bust. The one thing that can save the driven by the assessment of share- industry during periods of prolonged holders as to whether they are getting Well then, do you think we need a peace is that it is so concentrated in the returns that they seek. It is about government-based defense industrial Washington and so good at getting making money, just like every other policy? what it wants from Congress. industry is. You can’t stay in control of The problem with a defense in- these companies unless you deliver dustrial policy is that it tends to de- Is the DOD cutting back as best it can shareholder value, and that limits the generate into an entitlement program, under sequestration? Talk about spe- industry leadership’s influence outside a jobs program for people in the de- cific weapon systems in that context. the investment community. fense sector who develop constituen- We’ve already been cutting weap- cies in Congress. My feeling is that the ons for the last half-dozen years. We Does the defense industry need better best kind of defense industrial policy killed the Air Force’s F-22 fighter, the leadership in adjusting to change? is just maintaining a reasonable level Navy’s next-generation missile defense I think the leadership of the de- of demand for the most important cruiser, the Army’s family of net- fense industry is as good as I’ve ever combat systems. If we have that, in- worked combat vehicles, the Marine seen it. But again, that leadership is dustry will take care of itself. If we do Corps’ expeditionary fighting vehicle. defined by its ability to meet the ex- not have it, then we may not be able So whether we should have been cut- pectations of shareholders. That’s what to sustain a defense industrial base. ting weapons or not, we have already

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 9 “We need to focus on what really contributes to our warﬁghters, rather than on what contributes to somebody’s reelection campaign.” done it, and now we need to look at Do you think we somehow need to You have noted a cyber threat to the other areas where we can save money. find the political will and a way to international space station—about I think the most important area come up with the money to modern- hackers trying to take over its guid- covers all of the overhead functions ize our tactical air force and our ance and control functions. that don’t contribute value to the war- bombers? Yes, and that is pretty amazing. fighter and yet soak up huge amounts I think we could cover the cost of We have many, many, many examples of money, including excessive opera- a robust aircraft and aerospace mod- of situations in which information that tional testing, unnecessary rules and ernization program without increasing should not have been accessible to regulations, personnel levels in terms the defense budget by drastically cut- outsiders was easily hacked. Most of of manning and compensation that are ting overhead. But no one is talking our smartphones, iPads, and Internet obviously excessive—all of the areas in seriously about cutting those unneces- connections are not sufficiently se- which we have just allowed the sys- sary costs. Instead, we are stuck with cure. We don’t know what the Chinese tem to grow and grow and grow to awful ideas like sequestration, where or other foreign adversaries have al- the point where it is now in danger of we’re cutting the sinews of our war- ready put into our system that could strangling itself. fighting capability while leaving hun- turn it off in an instant if they needed dreds of thousands of bureaucrats in to do that during a war. I do not think Will the spending cuts weaken us in locations where their value is highly it is all that hard to interfere with our the air, detract from our air power? questionable. electrical grid, with our financial sys- Any specific concerns? What about We need to focus on what really tem, with our medical records, and unmanned aircraft in that context? contributes to our warfighters, rather with other networks that are now the I have always thought that un- than on what contributes to some- foundation of our civilization. manned aircraft have been oversold as body’s reelection campaign. a technology. They are uniquely well What would you recommend doing suited to dealing with nontraditional You said you are very concerned about all these national security threats like insurgents who don’t have about cyber security. Do we need to problems? Where would you start? air defenses or air forces. But they spend more on that? Does the DOD need to be revamped? wouldn’t be much use in dealing with At the moment, our spending on Our headquarters operation at the countries like China. cyber security in the federal govern- Pentagon has become so large and More broadly, the obvious prob- ment is trivial compared to what we self serving that it is now largely dis- lem we have right now with the future spend on weapons, both in gross connected from the warfighting enter- of air power is our failure to fund a ro- amounts and as a percentage of the prise. Bureaucracies have proliferated bust modernization program. We have federal budget. and become inward looking. If I were fallen behind in most of the key cate- Cyber expenditures are the best the president, I would start thinking gories of air power: sensor aircraft, bargain we can get, because of all the about how to run all DOD operations tactical aircraft, including fighters, and damage that is prevented just by hav- with half the current staff. I’m sure it bombers. They all need to be modern- ing a cyber program. In deciding how could be done. A lot of functions are ized at the same time, and of course we should spend money on cyber, I not really necessary; but beyond that, we can’t afford to do that. We haven’t think we will have to rely to some de- there is huge duplication, huge redun- even managed to buy a new trainer gree on the threats that emerge. How- dancy in paralleling the civilian side aircraft. So that’s our most immediate ever, I am fairly certain that we’re not and the military side of the establish- problem. We just haven’t run an ade- spending enough right now on cyber ment, and at the command levels in quate aircraft modernization program. preparedness. the services.

What are the longer term air power How worried are you about that? What else needs to be done? modernization issues? Even if the Chinese were not en- I think we could make the Penta- There are specific things I worry gaging in cyber espionage to steal bil- gon a world-class organization with its about. I worry about enemies fielding lions of dollars in intellectual property current structure if we had the right directed energy weapons, or maybe from us every year, I would worry people running it. By the same token, undirected energy weapons like elec- about their ability—or Iran’s ability, or I think we could optimize the struc- tromagnetic pulse [EMP]. And I worry anybody else’s ability—to simply col- ture and still have a bureaucratic dis- about what this may mean for the fu- lapse our whole system so that we aster if we have the wrong people ture of U.S. air power, because those could no longer function as an econ- running it. weapons essentially provide a cheap omy or a society. Considering how de- I think some of our defense sec- air defense, which we currently could pendent we are on the Internet, we retaries have not been very capable, not counter. are just not adequately protected. but more importantly, the quality of

10 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 the people who have been under them would get changed and be much bet- state, let’s have one that works well. If has been quite uneven. For every top- ter than it is. we’re not going to have a welfare notch person like [deputy defense sec- state, let’s have a party in power that retary] Ash[ton] Carter, there are a lot What’s wrong overall? can actually implement a plan to cre- of political hacks or neophytes who Fundamentally, the problem with ate an alternative. What we cannot af- really should not be in control of bil- our society today is that it’s a para- ford to do is just sit here for another lions of dollars of activity. There are lyzed political system. The only way generation wasting money without some very capable people at the Pen- under the Constitution that we can get getting anything done. tagon, but there are many who are past that is to put one political party pretty mediocre—so the system itself is in full control. The fact that we have Sounds like you would overhaul our pretty mediocre. two contending ideologies in the elec- entire electoral process, our political torate that are evenly balanced ex- system. How would you remedy all that? plains why the system is paralyzed. If No, what I’m looking for is to I would begin by removing all the in the midterm elections we either have the voters make a decision every restrictions and barriers to high-quality took the House away from the Re- two years—instead of splitting their people serving in top positions. Right publicans or the Senate away from tickets every two years—to have either now, asking such people to serve in the Democrats, creating something the Democrats or the Republicans in the Defense Dept. as senior political approaching a partisan consensus on control in the White House and in appointees is like an invitation to tor- Capitol Hill, then we might be able to Congress to implement their ideolo- ture. They face losing a lot of money, make some progress on solving our gies and get things done. Right now being charged with conflicts of inter- problems. we can’t even pass the budget. Unless est, being attacked by Congress, and But as long as we have a system we get beyond our political paralysis, not getting enough support from the that is divided along partisan lines, we will never fix anything—our na- White House. If we had half a dozen and with deep ideological cleavages, I tional security problems, our high- Ash Carters with the backing of the don’t see how we can solve our prob- ways, the way we educate our kids, White House to change this system, it lems. If we’re going to have a welfare everything.

16 - 20 June 2014 t Gaylord National Nationalal Harbor, Harborr,, MarylandMaryland (near Washington,Washingto DC)

Continuing Education Course anandd WWoorksh Decision Analysis Saturday & Sunday, 11–12 January 2014, 0815–1700 hrs SummarSummary:y: DecDecision analyysis suupp pports syst em life c ycle d evel o pment throu all pphhases and d s ystem hhierarchhlical lllevels. The course presents For more trade study dy pprocess as part of th e systems engggineering proces information, visit: introduces various decision analylysis methhdods, includinld g thhe tr trade study dy methhdods, trade space f or CAIV, AHV as part of t h www.aiaa.org/www.aiaa.org/ PPAAPRIKA, andd Decision Analysis with Uncertain Information/ scitech2O14courses 1st AIAA Sonic Boom Prediction WoWorkshop Saturday, 11 January 2014, 0800–1700 hrs Summary:Summary:Summar The objjective of the workshop is to assess the state of the art fo preddictinggg near ﬁldﬁeld signatures needdded for sonic boom prppopagg Participants are requested to applypp l y th heir b est practices for com solutions on thhe providdded ggeomeeometries.

Loww Reynoldsolds Numbeber WWoorkrkshop Saturday, 11 January 2014, 0800–1700 hrs Summary:Summary:Summar The workshop aims to ggaather Industry, Academia and Govern Register to assess new research directionsandd connection between the and the applications. Outcomes aim to include an understand TODAY!Y whhere th he MAVAV community stands in 2014 relative to wh ere w been throughout thhe past 20 years, andd h ow to b eggin bridbdgin scientiﬁﬁ/c/aca demic addvances with th e need s of ind ustry and user community.

13-61 SpaceX’s expanding launch manifest

IT IS HARD TO FIND ANOTHER SPACE One of Brazil, and the Turkmensat 1 2012, the space docking feat had been launch services company with as di- for the Ministry of Communications of performed only by governments—the verse a customer base as Space Explo- Turkmenistan. U.S., Russia, and China. ration Technologies (SpaceX), because The SpaceX docking debunked there simply is none. No other com- A new market the myth that has prevailed since the pany even comes close. Founded only The move to begin launching to GEO launch of Sputnik in 1957, that space a dozen years ago by Elon Musk, is significant, because it opens up an travel can be undertaken only by na- SpaceX has managed to win launch entirely new and potentially lucrative tional governments because of the contracts from agencies, companies, market for SpaceX. It also puts the prohibitive costs and technological consortiums, laboratories, and univer- company into direct competition with challenges involved. sities in the U.S., Argentina, Brazil, commercial launch heavy hitters Ari- Teal Group believes it is that Canada, China, Germany, Malaysia, anespace of Europe with its Ariane mythology that has helped discourage Mexico, Peru, Taiwan, Thailand, Turk- 5ECA, U.S.-Russian joint venture Inter- more private investment in commercial menistan, and the Netherlands in a rel- national Launch Services with its Pro- spaceflight and the more robust growth atively short period. Moreover, it has ton M, and Sea Launch of Russia with and development of the space market. done so within four completely differ- its Zenit 3SL and 3SLB. We sense this is now changing. ent markets—civil, commercial, mili- Still, SpaceX does not seem to be SpaceX has hauled supplies—food, tary, and university/nonprofit. giving up its LEO market. If anything, water, equipment, and experiments— SpaceX has used two different it is expanding it. Its manifest is to ISS twice since the initial docking, rocket models thus far—Falcon 1 and packed with more than two dozen and its next resupply mission is sched- Falcon 9 v.1.0—and at press time was micro, nano, pico, and femto (under 1 uled for January 15, 2014. It has cre- preparing for the maiden launch of its kg) satellites, but it is also filled with ated a new commercial space resup- Falcon 9 v.1.1 in September. That mis- over 100 small spacecraft, including ply service that could eventually sion is for the Canadian Space Agency 16 Orbcomm-NG mobile comsats for evolve to become an industry. For and several universities in the U.S., in- Orbcomm of Rochelle Park, New Jer- now, the company is merely providing cluding Cornell, Drexel, Stanford, the sey, and 70 Iridium-NEXT mobile a little competition for the Russians University of Colorado at Boulder, and comsats for Iridium Communications. and their Soyuz and Progress cap- Utah State. Most launch companies would be sules, fulfilling its obligations under its The company is also completing ecstatic with just the Iridium and Orb- commercial resupply services (CRS) development of Falcon Heavy, which comm business, or either. These pro- contract to NASA. may become the nation’s most power- grams not only contain an awful lot of Soon SpaceX will be joined by Or- ful rocket since Apollo’s Saturn V satellites but are also the kind that just bital Sciences and its Cygnus capsule, when it is ready for its first launch, keep on giving, because of the need which it has been developing under a sometime in 2015. for replacement spacecraft every few commercial orbital transportation ser- So far the company has launched years. But keep in mind that this is in vices contract to NASA. Orbital is satellites only to LEO. However, it was addition to an already healthy number preparing to start launching Cygnus planning to send its first commercial of GEO comsat launch orders. aboard Antares rockets in December communications spacecraft, the SES-8 under an eight-mission CRS contract. for SES World Skies, to geostationary Ending the myth SpaceX has 10 more Dragon ISS orbit in September, and its second to Perhaps the most intriguing thing resupply missions remaining on its GEO, the Thaicom 6 for Shin Satellite, about SpaceX’s satellite launch activi- CRS contract with NASA. It is proceed- aboard a Falcon 9 v.1.1 this month. ties is that they are not even its ‘core’ ing with development of a human- At least seven more GEO comsats business. The company has made a rated capsule known as DragonRider, are scheduled to go up on v.1.1s dur- name for itself not primarily for capable of transporting a crew of up ing the next two years, including ABS launching satellites, but rather for be- to seven astronauts. Plans call for 2A and 3A for Asia Broadcast Satellite ing the first private company to launch launching the first crewed Dragon- of China, Asiasat 6 and 8 for Asia resupply capsules to the ISS. Before Rider by 2015, although we suspect it Satellite Telecommunications of China, SpaceX’s unmanned Dragon capsule will be closer to 2017. This work is be- Satmex 7 and 9 for Satelites Mexicanos maneuvered in LEO and successfully ing done under NASA’s Commercial of Mexico, the Star One C5 for Star linked up with the ISS on May 25, Crew Development 2 program.

12 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 SpaceX envisions eventually mat- failure on August 2, 2008, there was either try another launch or announce ing an unmanned Dragon with its Fal- strong speculation that the company that he was closing shop. con Heavy and sending missions to would have to call it quits. Musk had What was not expected was that orbit the Moon. It then hopes ulti- deep pockets, but he could not end- SpaceX would attempt another launch mately to launch a manned Dragon- lessly keep financing what appeared within less than two months. On Sep- Rider to land on the lunar surface by to be a losing venture. It was thought tember 28, 2008, the company com- 2020. The company would like to that in six months to a year he would pleted its first successful Falcon 1 mis- send a series of relatively low-cost Red sion, carrying the 165-kg Ratsat demon- Dragon landers (based on the Dragon stration satellite. capsule) to Mars, launching them on In many ways, SpaceX is reminis- Falcon Heavies. Yes, the ultimate goal cent of the U.S. government during is to send humans to Mars—not astro- the late 1950s and the early 1960s, nauts to plant the flag, but settlers to when so many of its rockets kept establish a colony. blowing up, and it just kept trying until it managed to launch its astronauts Against all odds to the Moon. The Russians still operate It sounds like pie in the sky. But this that way. Whenever one of their Pro- has been heard so often when it ton rockets fails, they launch again comes to SpaceX, and consistently the within a few months. It is an aggres- company has overcome tremendous siveness that some in the space indus- obstacles and proven the mainstream try may feel is irresponsible. However, space establishment wrong. SpaceX it is an attitude that is probably re- failed on its first three launch attempts SpaceX became the ﬁrst private company quired if you plan to be doing things with its Falcon 1, and it simply per- to launch resupply capsules to the ISS, like sending humans to the Moon and sisted until it got it right. After the third with its unmanned Dragon capsule. Mars in timeframes of 10 years or less.

Falcon 9 was scheduled to begin launches to GEO in September.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 13 SPACEX MANIFEST (to LEO unless noted) Date Launched Launcher Customer Country Payload Mass (kg)

03/24/06 Falcon 1* Air Force Academy U.S. FalconSat 2 19.5 03/20/07 Falcon 1* NASA/DARPA U.S. LCT2/AFSS 150 08/02/08 Falcon 1* MDA U.S. Trailblazer 83.5 NASA ARC U.S. Nanosail-D 4 NASA ARC U.S. PREsat 4 Space Services U.S. Celestis 7 1 09/28/08 Falcon 1 SpaceX U.S. Ratsat 165 07/14/09 Falcon 1 Astronautic Technology Malaysia RazakSAT 180 06/04/10 Falcon 9 v.1.0 SpaceX U.S. Dragon (qual) < 4,200 08/12/10 Falcon 9 v.1.0 SpaceX U.S. Dragon C1 < 4,900 Northrop Grumman/USC U.S. Mayﬂower-Caerus 5 NRO U.S. QbX 1, 2 5 Army SMDC U.S. SMDC-ONE 1 4 Los Alamos National Lab U.S. Perseus 000 - 003 1.5 05/22/12 Falcon 9 v.1.0 SpaceX U.S. Dragon C2 6,650 08/10/12 Falcon 9 v.1.0 NASA U.S. Dragon CRS-1 6,650 Orbcomm U.S. Orbcomm-NG 1 142 01/13/13 Falcon 9 v.1.0 NASA U.S. Dragon CRS-2 6,650

Planned 09/13 Falcon 9 v.1.1 SES World Skies Netherlands SES-8** 3,200 09/13 Falcon 9 v.1.1 Canadian Space Agency Canada Cassiope 1*** 375 University of Colorado U.S. DANDE 50 Cornell University U.S. CUSat 1, 2 1 Drexel (and other univs.) U.S. POPACS 1 1 Drexel (and other univs.) U.S. POPACS 2 1.5 Drexel (and other univs.) U.S. POPACS 3 2 Stanford University U.S. SNAPS 0.5 10/13 Falcon 9 v.1.1 Shin Satellite Thailand Thaicom 6** 3,325 11/13 Falcon 9 v.1.1 Orbcomm U.S. Orbcomm-NG 2 - 9 142 01/15/14 Falcon 9 v.1.1 NASA U.S. Dragon CRS-3 – University of Hawaii U.S. Ho‘oponopono 2 3.5 NASA Goddard U.S. TechCube 1 3 Montana Space Grant Consortium U.S. FIREBIRD A 2 California Inst. of Technology U.S. LMRSat 2 Colorado Space Grant Consortium U.S. ALL-STAR/THEIA 1 Colorado Space Grant Consortium U.S. Hermes 2 1 City University of New York U.S. CUNYSAT 1 1 04/06/14 Falcon 9 v.1.1 NASA U.S. Dragon CRS-4 – NRL U.S. Spinsat 55 2014 Falcon 9 v.1.1 Asia Satellite Telecommunications China Asiasat 6** 3,813 2014 Falcon 9 v.1.1 Asia Satellite Telecommunications China Asiasat 8** 3,813 2014 Falcon 9 v.1.1 NASA U.S. Dragon CRS-5 – 2014 Falcon 9 v.1.1 Army SMDC U.S. Kestrel Eye 1 14 NASA JPL U.S. IPEX 1

Otherwise, people and investors lose ing since only 2006. Its first successful (SMDC); one for DARPA; and one for interest, and the costs of such pro- launch did not occur until late 2008, the Missile Defense Agency. All of grams grow out of control, thereby de- yet it has something on the order of these spacecraft have been small or creasing their odds of completion. 30-40 flights scheduled over the next tiny, and none could be called critical In spite of Musk’s bold, seemingly five years—depending on how pay- to national security. They were all outrageous ideas and predictions, it is loads are configured. It certainly technology development satellites— getting harder and harder to bet sounds like a serious business venture. the Pentagon was searching for a against SpaceX. Just look at the com- The only mildly weak area in cheap ride to space, and SpaceX was pany’s launch manifest. It is impres- SpaceX’s manifest is the military side. glad to provide it. sive in terms of both length and diver- Falcon rockets have launched only six There are only nine military satel- sity, not to mention that it was built up satellites for the Dept. of Defense, in- lites in the manifest. They include the within a few short years. The com- cluding two for the NRO; one for the DSCOVR Earth observation STP-2 ISAT pany has not been around very long. Air Force Academy; one for the Army technology satellites for the Air Force, Founded in 2002, it has been launch- Space and Missile Defense Command the DSX technology satellite for the

14 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 Date Launched Launcher Customer Country Payload Mass (kg)

2014 Falcon 9 v.1.1 Orbcomm U.S. Orbcomm-NG 10 - 18 142 2014 Falcon 9 v.1.1 Satelites Mexicanos Mexico Satmex 7** 5,600 Asia Broadcast Satellite China ABS 3A** 1,800 10/20/14 Falcon 9 v.1.1 Ministry of Communications Turkmenistan Turkmensat 1** 4,500 11/15/14 Falcon 9 v.1.1 Air Force U.S. DSCOVR 440**** SpaceX U.S. SHERPA (demo) – NASA U.S. Sunjammer < 50 12/05/14 Falcon 9 v.1.1 NASA U.S. Dragon CRS-6 – NASA U.S. SAGE III 76 12/30/14 Falcon 9 v.1.1 Star One Brazil Star One C5** 4,680 03/01/15 NASA U.S. Jason 3 553 03/03/15 Falcon 9 v.1.1 NASA U.S. Dragon CRS-7 – 06/01/15 Falcon 9 v.1.1 NASA U.S. Dragon CRS-8 – Bigelow Aerospace U.S. BEAM 1,360 2015 Falcon 9 v.1.1 Satelites Mexicanos Mexico Satmex 9** 5,600 Asia Broadcast Satellite China ABS 2A** 1,800 2015 Falcon 9 v.1.1 CONAE Argentina SAOCOM 1A 900 Astronautic Technology Malaysia D-Sat < 25 Alas Peruanas University Peru UAPSat 1 2015 Falcon 9 v.1.1 NASA U.S. Dragon CRS-9 – U.S. IDA 2 – 2015 Falcon Heavy AFRL U.S. DSX 600 NRO Taiwan Formosat-7A – 7L 217 2015 Falcon 9 v.1.1 Iridium Satellite U.S. Iridium-NEXT 3 - 22 800 2015 Falcon 9 v.1.1 Air Force U.S. STP-2 ISAT 5,000 2015 Falcon 1e NRL U.S. TacSat-1A 110 12/15 Falcon 9 v.1.1 SpaceX U.S. SHERPA 1 – 01/05/16 Falcon 9 v.1.1 NASA U.S. Dragon CRS-10 – 04/05/16 Falcon 9 v.1.1 NASA U.S. Dragon CRS-11 – U.S. OCO 3 550 2016 Falcon 1e GeoOptics U.S. Cicero 1 - 6 30 2016 Falcon 9 v.1.1 SpaceX U.S. DragonLab 1 – 2016 Falcon 9 v.1.1 Iridium Satellite U.S. Iridium-NEXT 23 - 62 800 08/08/16 Falcon 9 v.1.1 NASA U.S. Dragon CRS-12 – 2016 Falcon 9 v.1.1 SpaceX U.S. DragonLab 2 – 2016 Falcon 9 v.1.1 CONAE Argentina SAOCOM 1B 900 2016 Falcon 9 v.1.1 SpaceX U.S. SHERPA 2 – 2017 Falcon 9 v.1.1 SpaceX U.S. DragonRider – 2017 Falcon 9 v.1.1 Iridium Satellite U.S. Iridium-NEXT 63 - 72 800 2017 Falcon 9 v.1.1 SpaceX U.S. SHERPA 3 – 2018 Falcon 9 v.1.1 CSA Canada RCM 1 - 3 1,300 2018 Falcon 9 v.1.1 Bundeswehr Germany SARah Aktiv 1 2,200 2018 Falcon 9 v.1.1 B612 Foundation U.S. Sentinel Telescope 1,500 2019 Falcon 9 v.1.1 Bundeswehr Germany SARah Passiv 1, 2 1,800

*Launch failure. **GEO. ***Elliptical. ****Lagrange point 1 (L1).

AFRL, the Kestrel Eye 1 tactical imag- Lockheed Martin joint venture, for sev- NASA, Musk views competing head to ing satellite for the Army SMDC, three eral years. Once SpaceX’s Falcon head with Boeing and Lockheed Mar- SARah radar imaging satellites for the Heavy is certified by the Air Force, it tin for EELV contracts as his top prior- German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr), is likely to be selected for at least 14 ity. Last year the Air Force awarded and the Spinsat technology demon- of the next 50 EELV missions con- SpaceX two EELV-class payloads— stration and TacSat-1A maritime sur- tracted. The prices for Falcon 9 v.1.1 DSCOVR and STP-2 ISAT. That was veillance experimental satellites for and Falcon Heavy, estimated at nearly the first time a company besides Boe- the Naval Research Laboratory. half the price of the Atlas Vs and Delta ing or Lockheed Martin was allowed Within a few years, though, SpaceX IVs, are going to be attractive to the into EELV. SpaceX has opened another may be winning its share of launches Air Force, which has long been seek- door for itself, and one that is sure to under the Air Force’s Evolved Expend- ing to reduce its launch costs dramati- add noticeably to its manifest. able Launch Vehicle program, which cally—ever since the days of the $350- Marco Cáceres has been the exclusive domain of million-per-mission Titan IV rocket. Teal Group United Launch Alliance, a Boeing/ Next to cargo resupply work for [email protected]

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 15 Space science GOLD: A payload trend?

NASA’S GOLD (GLOBAL-SCALE OBSER- GOLD will search the ionosphere for GOLD will depict all these fluctuations vations of the limb and disk) instru- irregularities that can disrupt signals with color-coded maps. ment is a space weather sensor sched- traveling between space and Earth, es- The main engineering challenge uled for launch in 2017 as a hosted pecially GPS signals. will be to keep GOLD’s optics clean payload on a commercial communica- The ionosphere and thermosphere during development, installation, and tions satellite. at 160 km are complicated places that launch. On top of that, the team has From its perch in geosynchronous scientists do not fully understand. Hur- little wiggle room in its development orbit, the 26-kg GOLD sensor will ricanes, weather fronts, and solar en- schedule. The instrument must be scan almost an entire hemisphere of ergy produce gravity waves and tides ready in time to catch a ride on the Earth—175 degrees, to be exact—for that change the composition and tem- commercial satellite. far-ultraviolet emissions from the up- perature. The Sun is the primary Over time, if all goes as planned, per atmosphere at an altitude of 160 source of the tides, because as Earth GOLD will chronicle changes more km. From these spectral readings, the rotates, heat is deposited along 360 persistently from GEO than it could temperatures and composition of the degrees of longitude. from low Earth orbit. LEO satellites atmosphere will be calculated every “Beyond that, the pattern becomes pass by a particular location on Earth half-hour during daylight. At night, more complex,” says GOLD principal about once a day, but GOLD will stare investigator Richard Eastes of the Uni- at the same side of Earth continually versity of Central Florida in Orlando. from geosynchronous orbit. The sen- Charged particles from the Sun sor could in theory produce images as sometimes cause geomagnetic storms often as every 15 minutes, but the that can swing the atmospheric tem- team plans to operate at a half-hour perature by hundreds of degrees. cadence. Once GOLD is up, GPS operators are expected to use its data to im- The GOLD sensor will scan almost an entire prove the algorithms that correct for hemisphere for far-ultraviolet emissions from atmospheric signal distortions. The the upper atmosphere. The atmosphere’s FAA might even be able to reduce temperatures and composition will be calculated every half- false alarms about possible GPS out- hour during daylight. ages during geomagnetic storms. “This information should, we hope, decrease the chance of having unnecessary [flight] delays, and it would also improve the [GPS] accuracy at other times,” says Eastes.

Eight-year eﬀort Winning a $55.6-million commitment from NASA in April was a big break- through for Eastes and his teammates. The sensor will be built at the Univer- sity of Colorado’s Laboratory for At- mospheric and Space Physics, or LASP. Communications satellite operator SES Government Solutions of McLean, Vir- ginia, has reached a “rough order of magnitude” agreement on how much it should cost to host GOLD on one of its upcoming satellites. Eastes and LASP have been trying to get GOLD funded since 2005 under

16 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 NASA’s Explorer series but have never gotten beyond phase A research funding until now. The attraction of a hosted satellite was that building a free-flying spacecraft and launching it to geosynchronous orbit would have been impossi- bly expensive. The hosted payload option was the only way to keep GOLD under the Explorer cost cap, which is currently $55.6 million. When Eastes and his partners first broached their idea in 2005, flying a scientific instrument on a commercial satellite was a very new idea. “There have been ancillary instruments, for instance radiation detectors, on other satellites in the past. How- CHIRP (commercially hosted infrared payload) was installed on the SES-2 commercial satellite. ever, when we first proposed GOLD Credit: SES Government Solutions. there had been no remote sensing science instruments flown as hosted pay- trend. In November NASA announced “If you say, ‘This satellite basically loads,” Eastes says. selection of another scientific hosted is looking at the thermosphere and The skeptical questions flowed payload, the $90-million TEMPO (tro- ionosphere over your house,’ it brings from NASA during site visits and re- pospheric emissions: monitoring of the general interest in,” Lankton says. views. Could the construction sched- pollution), scheduled to be built by At the end of the day, the scientists ule for a scientific instrument be syn- 2017. That would be in time for do not really care where GOLD ends chronized with that of a commercial launch on a commercial satellite yet to up. They can prove its effectiveness satellite? What about contamination on be named. anywhere. the ground or out in space? A little bit Two missions are a good start, but of vaporized goo can wreak havoc on the GOLD team cautions against over- No ‘goo’ please scientific optics. confidence. “We’re still in the pioneer- GOLD will have two separate baffles Not all the questions were from ing phase of doing this,” says Mark to let ultraviolet radiation in and keep NASA to the physicists. SES Govern- Lankton of LASP, the project manager. stray light out. Mirrors and a grating ment Solutions had to reassure back- GOLD scientists may have bene- corresponding to each baffle will di- ers that GOLD would not pose an un- fited from the success of an Air Force rect the ultraviolet radiation to detec- acceptable risk to a valuable commun- infrared missile warning instrument tors. Those optics must be kept clean ications satellite. called CHIRP (commercially hosted in- to keep the UV signal as strong as “They’ve got to be able to con- frared payload). Launched into geo- possible. Covering each baffle will be vince everyone—not just a NASA re- synchronous orbit in September 2011 a spring-loaded hatch that will be view panel, but their investors and on an SES communications satellite, it commanded to pop open about a their insurance company—that this is a is reportedly performing well. CHIRP month after launch. The optics will reasonable thing to do,” Eastes says. is an experimental military instrument, produce identical UV channels. The Gradually, the concept lost its radical but its challenges are largely similar to readings will be combined to produce aura. “It became clear that the industry those of GOLD. It has a good view of color-coded temperature maps about was behind us, that they felt this is the U.S., so it can watch missile tests once every half-hour. something really beneficial for them,” at ranges in Arizona and New Mexico. “There are times when we need he adds. GOLD scientists are not sure yet the two channels to get as much sig- Even so, the GOLD team needed on which satellite their instrument will nal-to-noise [ratio] as we want and as three attempts to get a ‘yes.’ “This be hosted, so they do not know where we need to satisfy the requirements,” time, they finally found the money,” in orbit it will be positioned. Some- Eastes explains. says Eastes. where with a view of the U.S. would The GOLD team spends lots of be optimal, because it would make time worrying about contamination Payload pioneers downloading the data less compli- from glues or lubricants that might be The selection of GOLD could arguably cated, and it would enhance opportu- used in construction of the host satel- be considered the start of a payload nities for public outreach. lite and instrument.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 17 Check Out How AIAA Membership Works for You!

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See the savings for yourself! cially important for instruments like from a representative spacecraft, and Credit Card GOLD that must be sensitive to short found that the overall outgassing num- The AIAA WorldPoints® MasterCard Credit Card: The UV wavelengths. “Basically the shorter bers were acceptable, given that we the wavelength you’re looking at, the plan to protect the cleanliness of the Earn points and get the rewards you cleaner you need to be, just as a rule instrument in several different ways want, “cash, travel, merchandise, and of thumb,” Lankton explains. prior to launch,” Lankton says. gift certificates,” now with easy online One precaution will be to pump redemption, too! Only the WorldPoints® pure nitrogen gas into the instrument, Synchronizing schedules card gives you the freedom to choose so from the moment it is assembled at The GOLD team also faces the chal- LASP until launch. The nitrogen will lenge of meshing production schedules Home and Auto Insurance flow out of small gaps between the baf- with a still-unspecified commercial Purchase high-quality auto, fles and their protective covers to pre- communications satellite. “Typically, home, and renters insurance at low group rates. vent any contaminants from flowing in. the science instruments are on a little In space, spring-loaded hatches bit different schedule—a little longer Group Medical Insurance will be popped open, and this is when one, actually—than the commercial Find competitively priced insurance including: Comprehensive Health Care, a second anticontamination precau- communications satellites,” Eastes says. Catastrophe Major Medical, Cancer tion will become apparent. The instru- The team does not think this will Insurance, Disability Insurance, Medicare ment will be positioned on the satel- be a problem. The scientists have had Supplement, and Life. lite’s Earth-facing deck so that its a lot of extra time to refine their de- Long Term Care Insurance mirrors are not in line with any poten- sign over the years, and they were not Long Term Care Resources (LTCR), an tial contaminant sources, such as the starting from scratch. LASP built a sim- elite network of LTC Specialists repre- satellite’s solar arrays. ilar ultraviolet instrument for the senting the industry’s leading product “If you’ve got some lubricant or Cassini Saturn probe launched in providers with unmatched ﬂexibility glue or something that’s giving off gas 1997. 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If things go well with GOLD, sci- Fax: 703.264.7657 Thermal control surfaces, for example, entists are hopeful the mission will E-mail: [email protected] need to stay clean over what could be prompt the U.S. to make such space a 15-year communications mission. weather readings a regular part of Or visit the Membership section The GOLD team visited manufac- business. “Ideally, you’d have three of of the AIAA Web site turers to find out what kinds of mate- these [instruments], and you could see www.aiaa.org rials and practices they typically use. absolutely everything absolutely all Commercial manufacturers place their the time. But we have one, and it’ll be spacecraft in thermal vacuum cham- a big step forward,” Lankton says. bers equipped with sensitive scales Ben Iannotta called thermoelectric quartz crystal mi- [email protected]

18 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 (Continued from page 7) Force’s ongoing scandal (and seeming preoccupation) over sexual assault in It is also generating complaints, the ranks. The Air Force is the only however, because every altered traffic service branch to have placed a two- pattern can mean increased noise over star flag officer in charge of addressing someone’s house. Typical is the Forest the problem. That officer is Maj. Gen. Hill neighborhood association near Margaret Woodward, who earlier com- Newark, which is bombarding the manded U.S. air operations over Libya, New Jersey congressional delegation in spring 2011. with complaints that aircraft flyovers Supporters of the James appoint- are now louder. ment point to a healthy relationship between the public and private sectors Secretary of the Air Force and note that she is well qualified for Deborah Lee James is the president’s her new duties. Critics see a ‘revolving choice to become secretary of the Air door’ between government and indus- Lt. Gen. Susan Helms Force, the White House announced on try, with too much familiarity between August 1. the two sectors. the military justice system. Sen. Bar- “Deborah’s strong record of public Lawmakers blasted the Air Force bara Boxer (D-Calif.) says, “immediate service and leadership in the private this spring after two incidents in which steps must be taken to prevent senior sector makes her uniquely qualified to senior officers overturned guilty ver- commanders from having the ability to be my nominee,” said President dicts in sexual assault courts-martial. unilaterally overturn a decision or sen- Obama in a statement. “I look forward One of those senior officers was Lt. tence by a military court.” McCaskill to working with her to keep our Air Gen. Susan Helms, a former shuttle as- says she will introduce a bill to do ex- Force the very best in the world and to tronaut nominated to be vice com- actly that. keep faith with our extraordinary Air mander of Air Force Space Command. Military experts believe the critics Force personnel and their families.” Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) put a are on the wrong flight path. “It’s no James is a former assistant defense temporary hold on the Helms nomina- accident that military justice is differ- secretary and House of Representa- tion—still in effect when Congress ent from what happens in the civilian tives staffer who comes from defense went into recess—as a way of protest- courts,” says Fred L. Borch, an attor- contractor Science Applications Inter- ing what she called “the inadequacy of ney and historian on military law. national Corporation (SAIC), where the military justice system when deal- “Military culture requires that we have she was technical and engineering ing with assaults.” confidence in our commanders. They president. SAIC’s chairman and CEO is Under military law today, a com- are accountable for everything that retired Gen. John P. Jumper, former mander can overturn a court-martial happens under them, and they should Air Force chief of staff. James, if con- verdict just as Helms did, and the com- retain the authority to act responsibly firmed by the Senate, will work with mander’s decision becomes final, with when they see a flaw in a court-mar- the current chief of staff, Gen. Mark neither the secretary of defense nor tial finding.” Welsh. the president having any authority to At a time when the Air Force sec- James has held various positions intervene. Because of the severity of retary probably should be answering during a 30-year career in government the sexual assault issue, a bipartisan questions about the F-35 Lightning II and the private sector. She serves on group in the Senate wants to overhaul Joint Strike Fighter, an aging arsenal of the Defense Dept. Advisory Commit- atomic weapons, troop morale in the tee on Women in the Services. She will face of the fiscal sequester, and a host replace Michael Donley, who an- of other issues, nominee James can nounced his retirement on April 28 expect the Senate to grill her about the and left office June 30. Some Washing- court-martial system and about assault ton pundits wondered why it took in uniform. James has worked such is- Obama fully three months to choose a sues in the past and is well qualified candidate. Eric Fanning has been serv- to deal with them, but her views on ing as acting secretary. changing the military justice system At a time when the Air Force are not known. needs fuel, flying time, a new bomber, She will certainly be asked. and a new focus on the Pacific region, Robert F. Dorr some in Washington wonder whether [email protected] James—who has worked on the mili- Robert F. Dorr’s new book, Mission to tary’s legal and social issues in the Tokyo, is a history of American bomber past—was chosen because of the Air Deborah Lee James crews in WW II.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 19 China’s new aircraft carrier conducted its ﬁrst recovery of an aircraft—the J-15—last November.

hinese military modern- conflicts, and for potential conflict in the ization remains robust and Taiwan Strait, is the main goal of Beijing’s shows no signs of letup. A military investments. However, weapons growing variety of ad- and forces now being developed and pro- vanced weapons is mak- duced “will enable the PLA to conduct a ing the Chinese People’s range of military operations in Asia well be- Liberation Army (PLA) ever more capable yond Taiwan [and] in the South China Sea, ofC waging war, both close to home and far western Pacific, and Indian Ocean,” the re- away from its shores and borders. New port notes. weapons already deployed or far along in David Helvey, assistant secretary of de- development include antiship and land-at- fense for East Asia, addressed reporters at a tack ballistic and cruise missiles, nuclear Pentagon press briefing on the report. He submarines, surface combatants, advanced said that although relations between China aircraft, and an aircraft carrier. China is now and Taiwan appear to have improved, a demonstrable military threat in space and preparation for possible armed conflict in cyberspace. across the Taiwan Strait is still the “principal The DOD set forth this assessment for focus and primary driver” of China’s mili- 2012 in its annual report to Congress on tary buildup. Sustained and robust annual Chinese military developments. Issued ear- increases in defense spending are financing by James W. Canan lier this year, the report concludes that this buildup, according the report. Contributing writer preparing for short-duration, high-intensity China’s military budget for this year

Continuing modernization is improving China’s capabilities for waging war, both conventional and nuclear, at growing distances from its own shores, military according to DOD’s most recent ﬁndings. The country’s defense plans emphasize new and expanding domains, including cyberspace, now an area of major activity and even aggression, notes the Pentagon. China’s eﬀorts to overcome remaining vulnerabilities in might its defenses show no signs of abating.

stands at $114 billion, representing a 10.7% manitarian assistance/disaster relief, and re- increase over the previous year, the DOD gional military operations.” The report also document says. It notes also that estimating notes that one of the development priorities China’s actual defense expenditures pre- stated in China’s 2008 Defense White Paper sents difficulties “due to a lack of account- is “to increase the country’s capabilities to ing transparency” and to “China’s incom- maintain maritime, space, and electromag- plete transition from a command economy netic space security.” to a market economy.” Because publicized figures omit many categories of military ex- Emphasis on cyberspace penditures, the actual spending total could The DOD document says Beijing “is invest- be as high as $135 billion-$215 billion a ing in military programs and weapons de- year, the Pentagon believes. signed to improve extended-range power The direction and priorities of China’s projection and operations in emerging do- military modernization dovetail with its mains such as cyber, space, and electronic growing influence on the international warfare.” The report is explicit, for the first scene, the DOD document notes. Beijing time, in accusing Chinese government and “has become increasingly focused on in- military establishments of having invaded vestments in military capabilities to conduct military and private-sector computers and a wider range of missions beyond the networks of the U.S. and of other nations. country’s immediate territorial concerns, in- “China continues to explore the role of cluding counterpiracy, peacekeeping, hu- military operations in cyberspace as a fea-

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 21 Completing the Beidou and F-18 fighters, the Navy V-22 Osprey tilt- network will bring China rotor aircraft, the C-17 airlifter, the Global closer to matching U.S. Hawk surveillance and reconnaissance UAV, space capabilities. the Navy littoral combat ship and Mk54 lightweight torpedo, the Aegis ballistic missile defense system, and the Patriot surface- to-air missile system. Directed-energy, nano- and satellite communications technologies also were named by DSB as having been pilfered in cyber intrusions that other sources have attributed to China. China’s 2010 Defense White Paper stressed cybersecurity’s importance to national defense and expressed concern over ture of modern warfare, and continues to foreign cyberwarfare efforts, the DOD re- develop doctrine, training, and exercises port notes. It also says an essential element that emphasize information technology and of China’s antiaccess, area-denial (A2/AD) operations,” Helvey told reporters. “In ad- planning is “the ability to control and dom- dition, in 2012, numerous computer sys- inate the information spectrum in all di- tems around the world, including those mensions of the modern battlespace.” This owned by the U.S. government, continued “information blockade” strategy is funda- to be targeted for intrusions, some of which mental to gaining an “information advan- appear to be attributable directly to the Chi- tage” early in a campaign to attain military nese government and military.” superiority in the air, on land, at sea, in cy- The report asserts: “China is using its berspace, and in outer space, the DOD re- computer network exploitation (CNE) capa- port proclaims. bility to support intelligence collection against the U.S. diplomatic, economic, and A2/AD warfare defense industrial base sectors that support China’s emphasis on girding for antiaccess U.S. national defense programs. The infor- and area-denial warfare shows up in its mation targeted could potentially be used “sustained effort to develop the capability to benefit China’s defense industry, high- to attack, at long ranges, military forces that technology industries, policymaker[s]…and might deploy or operate in the western Pa- military planners building a picture of U.S. cific,” says the Pentagon report: defense networks, logistics, and related mil- “China is pursuing a variety of air, sea, itary capabilities that could be exploited undersea, space, and counterspace and in- during a crisis.” formation warfare systems, and operational Cyberwarfare capabilities support Chi- concepts to achieve this capability…. nese military operations by enabling data China’s current and projected force struc- collection for purposes of attacking the ture improvements will provide the PLA computer networks and intelligence net- with systems that can engage adversary sur- works of possible adversaries, the report face ships up to 1,000 n.mi. from China’s notes. Such capabilities also help the mili- coast.” Beijing is intent on developing tary target network-based logistics, commu- weapons that will enable its combat arms nications, and commercial activities, also to project power even farther from home, serving as a force multiplier when used in against targets such as regional air bases, conjunction with kinetic warfare attacks logistical facilities, and infrastructures, the during armed conflict. report continues. In the U.S., a Defense Science Board “China is fielding an array of conven- (DSB) report issued this year dramatized tionally armed ballistic missiles, ground- that assessment by noting that the designs and air-launched land-attack cruise missiles, of nearly 30 major U.S. weapon systems special operations forces, and cyberwarfare have been captured in cyberspace by for- capabilities to hold targets at risk through- eign hackers. The DSB report did not name out the region,” the report asserts. The in- China as the culprit, but sources familiar troduction of China’s first aircraft carrier has with the document were unrestrained in also strengthened the country’s regional doing so. combat capability, as have advanced fighter According to the report, the compro- aircraft, submarines, integrated air defenses, mised designs included those of the F-35 improved command and control, and more

22 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 sophisticated training and exercises across The space domain air, naval, and land forces. The U.S. is closely monitoring Chinese mil- The PLA Navy is at the forefront of itary activities in space, Helvey declared. China’s A2/AD developments, because it Last year, he noted, China conducted 18 has “the greatest range and staying power” space launches and expanded its constella- to interdict enemy forces, says the report. tions of space-based ISR (intelligence, sur- “In conflict, PLA Navy operations would veillance, and reconnaissance), navigation, likely begin in the Chinese offshore and meteorological, and communications satel- coastal areas with attacks by coastal de- lites, and continues to invest in a multidi- fense cruise missiles, maritime strike air- mensional program to deny others access craft, and smaller [surface] combatants, and to, and use of, space. extend as far as the second island chain The Pentagon report contends that and Strait of Malacca using large surface China sees space utilization, and the ability ships and submarines. As the Chinese navy to deny adversaries access to space, as fun- gains experience and acquires larger num- damental to waging modern, information- bers of more capable seagoing platforms, based warfare. Space operations would including those for long-range air defense, play a key role in the A2/AD operations of it will expand its operations farther into the the PLA, which is “acquiring a range of western Pacific, and “it will develop a new technologies to improve China’s space and capability with ship-based land-attack cruise counterspace capabilities,” says the report. missiles,” the document predicts. It notes that the Chinese demonstrated their “China views long-range anti-ship cruise counterspace, kinetic-kill capability by de- missiles as a key weapon and is developing stroying a defunct Chinese weather satellite multiple advanced types and the platforms in early 2007, and have not acknowledged to employ them,” the report says. The plat- any additional antisatellite programs since. forms include four types of conventionally According to the report, a PLA analysis powered and nuclear-powered attack sub- of U.S. and allied-coalition military opera- marines, six types of surface combatants, tions “reinforced the importance of opera- and four models of maritime strike aircraft, tions in space to enable ‘informatized’ war- it continues. fare” and concluded that “space is the Currently, China would display several commanding point for the information bat- shortcomings in an A2/AD operation, the tlefield.” The DOD report further notes that Pentagon document contends. “First, it has “PLA writings emphasize the necessity of not developed a robust, deep-water anti- ‘destroying, damaging, and interfering with submarine warfare capability, in contrast to the enemy’s reconnaissance and communi- its strong capabilities in the air and surface cations satellites,’ suggesting that such sys- domains. Second, it is not clear whether tems, as well as navigation and early warn- China has the ability to collect accurate tar- ing satellites, could be among the targets of geting information and pass it to launch [Chinese] attacks designed to ‘blind and platforms in time for successful strikes in deafen the enemy.’” sea areas beyond the first island chain. The Pentagon report also quotes the However, China is working to overcome PLA as having stated that ‘destroying or these shortcomings.” capturing satellites and other sensors…will Helvey noted that the new aircraft car- deprive an opponent of initiative on the rier conducted its first recovery of an aircraft—the carrier-capable J-15 fighter—last November. China is expected to “spend the next three or four years on training and integration before achieving an operationally effective aircraft carrier capability” and “will likely build several indigenous aircraft carriers over the next 15 years,” he said. “In addition to Taiwan, China places a high priority on asserting its maritime territorial claims,” said Helvey. “In recent years, China has begun to demonstrate a more routine and more capable presence in both the South and East China Seas, which has The J-11B is part of China’s ﬂeet of fourth-generation aircraft. increased anxieties over China’s intentions.”

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 23 China continues low-observable platforms to support re- to develop UAVs like gional air superiority and strike operations,” the BZK-005 (image from Chinese says the Pentagon report. Moreover, it says, Defense Website). “China’s continuing upgrades to its bomber fleet may provide the capability to carry new, longer range cruise missiles.” In addition, its development and acquisition of “longer range unmanned aerial vehicles, including the BZK-005, and unmanned combat aerial vehicles, will increase China’s ability to conduct long-range reconnaissance and strike operations.” battlefield and [make it difficult] for them to Mainly to counter long-range airborne bring their precision-guided weapons into strike aircraft and low-flying cruise missiles, full play.’” China’s ground-based air defenses feature increasing numbers of advanced, long- New ﬁghter, advanced SAMs range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), includ- China continues to develop its fifth-genera- ing Chinese HQ-9 and Russian-built SA-10 tion air-superiority fighter, which “is not and SA-20 SAMs. China wants to acquire likely to be fielded before 2018,” says the the Russian S-400 SAMs, with a range of Pentagon report. That warplane is expected 400 km, and is expected to continue devel- to be highly maneuverable and stealthy, oping longer range variants of its home- with “lack of visibility on radar due to very produced HQ-9, 200-km SAM. low observable shaping, and an internal Longer range SAMs are fundamental to weapons bay.” It will embody modern China’s military modernization, the U.S. re- avionics and sensors to provide “more port contends. It depicts Beijing as trying to timely situational awareness for operations “go beyond defense from aircraft and cruise in network-centric environments, radars missiles to gain a ballistic missile defense with advanced targeting capabilities and capability” in protection of mainland and protection against enemy electronic coun- strategic assets. The report also notes that termeasures, and integrated electronic war- the SA-20, said to be the most advanced fare systems with advanced communication SAM that Russia offers for export, has the and GPS navigation functions.” advertised capability to engage ballistic mis- The new fighter should greatly improve siles at long range; China’s domestic CSA-9 the air power now vested in China’s exist- SAM system can engage them only at much ing fleet of fourth-generation aircraft—the shorter distances, it says. Russian-built Su-27/Su-30 and the indigenous J-10 and J-11B fighters—“by utilizing Missile defense and nuclear capabilities More broadly, “China is proceeding with research and development of a missile defense umbrella consisting of kinetic-energy China is expected to continue developing intercept at exoatmospheric altitudes longer range variants (above 80 km), as well as intercepts of bal- of its HQ-9. listic missiles and other aerospace vehicles within the upper atmosphere,” says the report. It notes that in January 2010, and again in January of this year, China successfully intercepted ballistic missiles at mid- course, using ground-based SAMs. At the same time, China is developing a range of technologies—for systems such as maneuverable reentry vehicles, chaff, de- coys, jamming, thermal shielding, and antisatellite weapons—to counter the ballistic missile defenses of the U.S. and other nations. “China’s official media also cite numerous Second Artillery training exercises featuring maneuver, camouflage, and launch operations under simulated combat condi-

24 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 A JL-2 missile is ﬂight tested from a new Jin-class ballistic missile submarine on patrol in the Bohai Sea.

tions which are intended to increase surviv- vest considerable resources to maintain a ability,” the report adds. “Together with the limited, but survivable, nuclear force increased mobility and survivability of the (sometimes described as ‘sufficient and ef- new generation of missiles, these technolo- fective’) to ensure [that] the PLA can deliver gies and training enhancements strengthen a damaging retaliatory nuclear strike,” says China’s nuclear force and enhance its the Pentagon report. It predicts that this nu- strategic capabilities.” clear force will consist of approximately 50- The paper also notes that increases in 75 silo-based and road-mobile ICBMs com- the number of its mobile ICBMs and “the plemented by intermediate-range ballistic beginning of deterrence patrols” by its missiles for “regional deterrence missions.” SSBN nuclear-armed submarines “will force By 2015, the force will include additional the PLA to implement more sophisticated silo-based and road-mobile ICBMs, the pa- command and control systems and proper predicts. cesses…for a larger, more dispersed [nu- In keeping with its ‘no first use’ policy, clear] force.” China has assumed that it may need to ab- Production and deployment of China’s sorb an initial nuclear strike while shielding Jin-class nuclear-armed ballistic missile sub- its leadership and strategic assets, says the marines are on steady course, according to report. As a result, it says, China “maintains the report. It says that three of the Jin-class a technologically advanced underground subs have been delivered and “as many as facility program protecting all aspects of its two more [are] in various stages of con- military forces, including C2 (command and struction.” These “will eventually carry the control), logistics, missile, and naval forces.” JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile China began updating and expanding its with an estimated range of 7,400 km” and construction of underground facilities with “will give the PLA Navy its first long-range, greater urgency in the latter part of the last sea-based nuclear capability.” After a round century, in reaction to the increased preci- of successful testing in 2012, the JL-2 mission and penetrating power of modern sile appears ready to reach operational ca- weaponry, says the paper: “A new empha- pability this year, and Jin-class SSBNs based sis on ‘winning high-tech battles’ in the fu- at Hainan Island in the South China Sea will ture precipitated research into advanced then be capable of operational patrols, the tunneling and construction methods.” report says. The Pentagon report on China’s mili- China is fashioning its nuclear force to tary developments was prepared in cooper- be capable of surviving any attack and of ation with the departments of State, Home- responding with enough power to inflict land Security, Energy, and Commerce, and unacceptable damage on the attacker, says “reflects views that are broadly held across the DOD report. Beijing has consistently as- the United States government,” Helvey told serted that it adheres to a “no first use” nu- reporters. Noting that China is expanding clear policy, that it would resort to using its political and military outlook and has nuclear weapons only in response to a nu- become increasingly concerned with inter- clear strike against the homeland, and that national developments, U.S. policymakers, it would never use or threaten to use nu- he said, see “an opportunity for China to clear weapons against any nonnuclear- partner with the international community to weapon state or nuclear-free zone, it says. address the types of challenges that we all The Chinese “will likely continue to in- face in the 21st century.”

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 25 HON O RING ACHI EVEMEN T AIAA Hall of Fame AWARDS PRESENTED BET WEEN JULY 2013 AND SEPTEMBER 2013

Aerospace Power Systems Award Energy Systems Award Geoffrey Landis Ryoichi S. Amano R & D Engineer Professor of Mechanical Engineering NASA Glenn Research Center University of Wisconsin Cleveland, Ohio Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Aerospace Software Engineering F. E. Newbold V/STOL Award Award William J. Lewis Barry Boehm Assistant Chief Engineer (Retired) TRW Professor of Software Engineering Rolls-Royce PLC Computer Science Department, University of Southern Bristol, United Kingdom California Los Angeles, California

Jeffries Aerospace Medicine and Life Air Breathing Propulsion Award Sciences Research Award Thomas Kaemming Jonathan Clark, M.D. Research Engineer, Innovative Scientiﬁc Solutions, Inc. Associate Professor, Neurology and Space Medicine Technical Fellow (Retired) Baylor College of Medicine The Boeing Company Department of Neurology/Center for Space Medicine St. Louis, Missouri Houston, Texas

Aircraft Design Award History Manuscript Award Egbert Torenbeek Bruce Larrimer Professor Emeritus, Aerospace Engineering Larrimer Associates Delft University of Technology Columbus, Ohio Delft, The Netherlands

DeFlorez Award for Flight Simulation Mechanics and Control of Flight William W. Chung Award Senior Systems Engineer, Guidance, Navigation and Control Eugene Morelli AMERICAN SYSTEMS Corporation Research Engineer, Dynamic Systems and Control Branch Lexington Park, Maryland NASA Langley Research Center Hampton, Virginia

13- 66 AIAA is proud to recognize the very best in our industry: those drive to explore and accomplish amazing things. For over 75 years, individuals and teams who have taken aerospace technology to AIAA has been a champion to make sure that aerospace professionals the next level…who have advanced the quality and depth of are recognized for their contributions. the aerospace profession…who have leveraged their aerospace knowledge for the beneﬁt of society. Their achievements have inspired Every quarter, award recipients are showcased through our Honors us to dream and to explore new frontiers. and Awards Program, so that all members have the opportunity to recognize their peers. We celebrate our industry’s discoveries and achievements from the small but brilliantly simple innovations that affect everyday lives to For more information about the program and a listing of awards open the major discoveries and missions that fuel our collective human for nomination, please visit www.aiaa.org.

Propellants and Combustion Award Space Systems Award James F. Driscoll Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite Professor of Aerospace Engineering (LCROSS) Team University of Michigan NASA Ames Research Center Ann Arbor, Michigan Moffett Field, California Award Accepted By: Anthony Colaprete, Principal Investigator

Space Automation and Robotics Von Braun Award for Excellence in Award Space Program Management Robonaut 2 Development Team Lt. Gen. Eugene Tattini NASA Johnson Space Center Deputy Director Houston, Texas Jet Propulsion Laboratory Award Accepted By: Ron Diftler, Principal Investigator Pasadena, California

Space Operations and Support Award AIAA Foundation Guidance, Orbital Express Flight Operations Team Navigation, and Control Graduate Award Accepted by: Award Robert Friend, Boeing Defense Space and Security Col. Fred Kennedy, USAF, Robbins AFB Aude Marzuoli Randy Rubens, Boeing Advanced Space Systems Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, Georgia

Thank You Nominators! AIAA appreciates your time and efforts in preparing the nomination package!

William Anemaat Charles Elachi Amy Lo Werner Dahm Steven Fredrickson Daniel Paxson J. Paul Douglas Bruce Hildreth Michael Piszczor David Eames Shane Jacobs Brenna Stachewitz Essam Khalil An object entered the atmosphere over the Urals early in the morning of February 15, 2013. The ﬁreball exploded above the city of Chelyabinsk, resulting in damage to buildings and injuries to hundreds of people. Photo was taken by Alex Alishevskikh about a minute after he noticed the blast. Credit: Alex Alishevskikh, courtesy ESA. NEO threats

Near-Earth objects whose orbits take them dangerously There is mounting global interest in celestial bodies that may be on a collision course close to Earth are no longer dismissed as an exaggerated with our planet. These near-Earth objects, or NEOs, primarily are asteroids circling the threat. The bolide that exploded over Russia in February Sun in orbits that come close to our own. So far, there are over 600,000 asteroids caused widespread damage and injuries, sparking identified in our solar system. Nearly 10,000 renewed concerns about the problem. Technology of them are NEOs. The historic record is clear—comets and for improved detection and even deflection of NEOs asteroids have been punching our planet since its formation 4.5 billion years ago. already exists, say experts, but an effective planetary While the near-term odds that an intruder will crash into us are slight, they are not defense will require international cooperation as well. zero…and the effects of a strike by a siz- able body would be severe.

But there is good news on the planetary The results: some 1,500 individuals in- defense front, in areas ranging from detec- jured, dozens hospitalized with cuts from tion of NEOs to understanding their proper- flying shattered glass and other materials, ties to determining what action plan must be and over 4,000 buildings damaged. It was in place to deal with a potential collision. the largest extraterrestrial object encountered since June 30, 1908, when a NEO Wake-up call believed to be an asteroid flattened 1,000 In large measure, the ‘giggle factor’ associ- square miles of forest in Tunguska, ated with discussions of NEO strikes is on Siberia. the wane. That was brought home, quite lit- Many experts consider the Chelyabinsk erally, on February 15 near Chelyabinsk in event a cosmic wake-up call. The previ- Russia, when a space rock plowed through ously undetected object, weighing an esti- the atmosphere above the area, exploded, mated 7,000 tons and measuring roughly and let loose window-shattering shock 55-65 ft in diameter, struck the atmosphere by Leonard David waves over an expansive region. at about 40,000 mph, exploding nearly 15 Contributing writer

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 29 Seventeen infrasound stations in Congressional reverberations the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test- The February blast over Russia had far- Ban Treaty Organization’s network detected the infrasonic flung ripple effects, reverberating even in waves from the meteor that the halls of the U.S. Congress. The event brokeup over Russia’s Ural Moun- highlights the need to pay greater attention tains. Credit: CTBTO. to the NEO threat, according to Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.), vice chairman of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee. He noted that although the U.S. has been spending millions to find and track asteroids and comets, the space rock that exploded over Chelyabinsk was appar- ently so small that sky-watchers are not even looking for objects that size. mi. above Chelyabinsk with 20-30 times the “This is the only preventable natural energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. disaster, and we have mounting evidence As it moved through the Earth’s atmo- that this is a real and tangible danger,” said sphere at a shallow angle, the fireball—or the Rohrabacher. “Our heartfelt prayers go out ‘superbolide,’ as it is sometimes called—re- to all those affected by this event, and it leased a huge amount of energy. The high- shows that we must protect ourselves, and altitude breakup produced a shower of frag- the planet, from this clear danger.” ments that fell to the ground as meteorites. What concerned the lawmaker even The far-flung system of detectors that more, he said, was that “we have no plan comprise the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test- that can protect the Earth from any comet Ban Treaty (CTBT) network made its or asteroid. So, even if we find one that will largest-ever detection as the body shattered hit us, we might not be able to deflect it.” over the Urals. The CTBT Organization, Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R-Wis.) also based in Vienna, runs the International expressed concern, noting that the damage Monitoring System, which consists of caused many to wonder how such an event widely dispersed infrasound stations. When could happen without warning. the space rock detonated, the resulting “Locating and tracking these objects is blast was detected by 17 stations in the clearly just the first step in preparedness,” CTBTO’s network, which tracks atomic said Sensenbrenner. “The ability to elimi- blasts across Earth. The farthest station to nate the threat of an asteroid or meteor record the blast was some 9,320 mi. away in impacting Earth, colliding with the Moon, Antarctica. or disrupting our space-oriented commu- According to former Apollo astronaut nications and scientific equipment could Russell Schweickart, there is need to sweat be vital,” he added. An image from the spinning enhanced visible and infrared the small stuff. Schweickart is cofounder Referring to Chelyabinsk, Sensenbren- imager aboard Eumetsat’s and recent chairman of the B612 Founda- ner said, “We would be remiss if we did not Meteosat-10 geostationary tion, a group dedicated to protecting the use such headline-making events as an op- satellite shows a vapor trail left by an asteroid that struck Earth Earth from asteroid strikes. portunity to survey our current capabilities near Chelyabinsk. This image uses “The main thing we’re seeing evolve is and assess how we can better use limited data from the high-resolution a gradual understanding—although it’s not resources to identify potential threats.” visible channel of the imager that there yet—that the dominant challenge is go- can provide both high spatial and temporal resolution. ing to be the smaller objects. While they Characterizing the danger Credit: Eumetsat. don’t do as much The NASA Authorization Act of 2005—in a damage, the world section called the George E. Brown Jr. will not want them Near-Earth Object Survey Act—directed the to hit. And that’s agency to detect, track, catalog, and charac- the issue. If you terize 90% of all NEOs with a diameter of don’t want them 140 m or more by 2020. It extends a 1998 to hit, then the congressional directive that tasked NASA smaller ones are with locating at least 90% of all NEOs with the ones you’re a diameter greater than 1 km—those judged going to be deal- by many experts to have the potential to ing with,” Schwe- threaten civilization—within 10 years. ickart tells Aero- The 1-km goal was achieved in 2011, space America. according to John Holdren, assistant to the

30 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 president for science and technology and international communications as needed. director of the White House Office of Sci- Holdren told Congress that the U.S. ence and Technology Policy (OSTP). Testi- program for discovering larger NEOs is ef- fying before Congress after the Chelyabinsk fective, but that our capabilities for identi- event, Holdren said statistical calculations fying and characterizing smaller NEOs need indicate that more than 90% of NEOs this improving. “With our current or near-future size have been found. capabilities, both on the ground and in The prospect of detecting 90% of NEOs space, it is unlikely that objects smaller than 140 m and larger “is much more challeng- 100 m in diameter on collision courses with ing,” said Holdren. He noted that President the Earth will be detected with greater than Obama’s 2010 National Space Policy rein- weeks of advance warning—a matter of forced NASA’s charge to “pursue capabili- some concern, since the larger objects in ties, in cooperation with other departments, this range could be city-destroyers,” he agencies, and commercial partners, to de- concluded. tect, track, catalog, and characterize” NEOs. Holdren also said the OSTP has been Eyes closed working closely with several departments “We citizens of Earth are essentially flying and agencies to draft plans and procedures, around the solar system with our eyes including potential mitigation strategies, closed. Asteroids have struck Earth before, that could be used in the event of a NEO and they will again…unless we do some- threat. Under these plans, it is NASA’s re- thing about it,” said former NASA astronaut sponsibility, he said, to provide initial no- Ed Lu, chairman and CEO of the B612 Foun- tice of such a threat. Following that notifi- dation. “Currently there is no comprehen- cation, the Federal Emergency Management sive, dynamic map of our inner solar system Agency would communicate the informa- showing the positions and trajectories of tion domestically. The State Dept.’s diplo- these asteroids that might threaten Earth,” he matic mechanisms would come into play for told the Senate Committee on Commerce,

Dealing with NEOs: Key steps The past several years have brought real and significant ad- international levels, would help agencies prepare for impact vances in understanding and dealing with the threat of events. NEOs. Reflecting this progress are recommendations cited in •Being prepared: Although atmospheric entries of a specially prepared International Academy of Astronautics NEOs—those of sufficient size to cause serious damage—are white paper, based on a meeting of nearly 250 experts gath- rare, the need for an active deflection/disruption response ered at the 2013 IAA Planetary Defense Conference in April. could arise at any time. The challenge is to develop response Key recommendations include: plans and put in place cost-effective procedures to maintain •Discovery: Locating Earth-threatening objects contin- the needed technologies and capabilities. Procedures should ues to be the most critical aspect of planetary defense. Only be developed for cataloguing the necessary equipment and a small percentage of those that could destroy a city or dev- tools and for ensuring that the required capabilities are astate a region have been discovered, and such an object tested and verified on other missions. Similarly, procedures could enter our atmosphere today with little or no warning. for launching spacecraft should be examined to see if ways •Characterization: Research is increasing our under- can be found to reprogram an existing launch vehicle and to standing of the types of structures and materials that might mount and launch a new payload quickly. be encountered by deflection/ disruption missions, and of •International efforts: Planetary defense is an interna- their responses to kinetic impact and other such efforts. This tional responsibility. Current efforts at the U.N., which is work will increase confidence in the success of such missions seeking to provide opportunities for space agencies to plan and potentially limit the number of launches needed to for shared responsibilities and coordinated actions, should be achieve the desired result. supported. Bilateral and multilateral agreements will also be •Skills for moving an asteroid: Proposed ideas include necessary for coordination of resources and capability. missions that would use kinetic impactors to move an aster- •Communications: There is a need to increase and solid- oid while an observer spacecraft verifies the impact and mo- ify awareness of the requirement for developing and moving tion away from the original path. Designing these missions forward on an overall coordination and communication plan and developing the tools and payloads they require would for planetary defense-related efforts. Information on the na- verify model predictions and build confidence in our ability ture of the NEO threat, deflection/disruption options, the to deal with an actual threat. evolution of a threat scenario, risk and uncertainty, and cred- •Disaster mitigation: Several ‘tabletop’ exercises con- ible tools for simple deflection mission design should be ducted for limited audiences have proven effective in mak- added to currently available, authoritative web pages. ing people aware of the unique aspects of asteroid threats Special thanks to 2013 IAA Planetary Defense Confer- and of where work is needed. These drills, which involve dis- ence organizing committee cochairs William Ailor of The aster response agencies at the local, state, national, and Aerospace Corporation and Richard Tremayne-Smith.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 31 Japan’s Hayabusa-2: Building on success JAXA is staging an ambitious sojourn to asteroid 1999 JU3 via Hayabusa-2, To create the crater, Hayabusa-2 will use a small carry-on impactor (SCI), a spurred by the success of its predecessor spacecraft. The flight of Hayabusa- 30-cm-diam. disk made of copper. The SCI will be deformed by an explosion 1 to asteroid Itokawa and its return to Earth took place from May 9, 2003, to form a semispherical shell and will then be accelerated to a velocity of to June 13, 2010. roughly 2 km/sec for the collision onto the asteroid’s surface. Hayabusa-2, slated for launch next year, is to arrive at its target aster- 1999 JU3 is a C-type (carbonaceous) asteroid whose 4.5-billion-year-old oid in 2018. It will loiter there and carry out a slew of challenging firsts be- material is believed to have changed very little. It is a more primordial fore leaving in late 2019 and returning to Earth with asteroid specimens body than Itokawa, which is an S-type (stony) asteroid. Hayabusa-2 will de- around the end of 2020. ploy the Japanese-built MINERVA (micro/nano experimental robot vehicle Its roughly one-and-a-half-year stay at 1999 JU3 will permit scientists for asteroid), a small robot lander. The German Aerospace Center’s (DLR) to carry out observation and sample collection duties. Institute of Space Systems in Bremen is contributing the MASCOT (mobile The two probes are comparable in design, but the newer one will haul asteroid surface scout), developed by DLR in collaboration with the French inventive hardware. While the first spacecraft’s antenna was parabolic in space agency, CNES, and JAXA. shape, Hayabusa-2 will sport two flat high-gain antennae to support faster MASCOT is a ‘hopping’ lander that will move about and take measure- communication speeds. Also, Hayabusa-2 is to be nudged through space by ments at different sites. It will use a camera to image the fine structure of increased propulsion power from its set of ion engines. the surface and a radiometer to take its temperature. The lander is de- Another key add-on is a 4-lb (2-kg) ‘collision device’—a way of produc- signed to work on the asteroid for a total of 16 hr. ing an artificial crater on the asteroid’s surface. That small depression, ex- Under the current plan, Hayabusa-2 has a 2014 launch window and pected to be just a few meters across, should enable the probe to acquire would reach the asteroid in the middle of 2018. It would return to Earth samples that are newly exposed by the impact and less weathered by the at the end of 2020 with its asteroid samples safely tucked inside a return brutal environment of space. capsule.

Science and Transportation in March. of those found by all other observatories The B612 Foundation is leading the combined. After 6.5 years of operation, it Sentinel project, an effort to build, launch, will likely discover and track approximately and operate a solar orbiting infrared space 1 million NEOs; the currently known total telescope. Commercial practices are being is about 10,000. used to manage this deep-space telescope This catalog not only will “provide a list under a milestone-based, fixed-price con- of potential targets for robotic and human tract with prime contractor Ball Aerospace exploration,” said Lu, but also “can allow us and Technologies. Sentinel is philanthropi- to successfully mount a deflection cam- cally financed and privately managed, but paign and prevent a catastrophe” should with a crucial government partnership. any of these NEOs threaten us. “Our future B612’s goal is for Sentinel to be may depend on it,” he concluded. launched in July 2018. During its first 6.5 years of operation, the spacecraft will be Global response able to discover and track the orbits of over One group keen on evolving a global re- 90% of the population of NEOs larger than sponse to the NEO impact threat has been 140 m, and the majority of those bigger the U.N. Scientific and Technical Subcom- than the asteroid that struck Tunguska mittee’s Action Team on Near-Earth Ob- (roughly 40 m). Sentinel’s instrumentation, jects (AT-14), chaired by Sergio Camacho. Lu said, is capable of discovering 100 times A former director of the U.N. Office for more asteroids than have been found by all Outer Space Affairs, he has been an assid- other telescopes combined. uous advocate for international coopera- “Deflecting asteroids is technologically tion on this matter. feasible, if we have adequate early warn- AT-14’s recommendations for an inter- ing,” Lu emphasized. “If we know decades national response to NEOs have been years in advance of an impact, we can predict in the making. They include establishing an and actually prevent an impact using exist- International Asteroid Warning Network ing technology—kinetic impactors, gravity (IAWN) and a Space Mission Planning Ad- tractors, and, if required, even standoff nu- visory Group (SMPAG). clear explosions—to nudge the asteroid and IAWN would be open to contributions subtly change its course to miss Earth. Con- from a wide spectrum of organizations. It versely, we can do nothing about an aster- would be formed by linking together insti- oid we have not yet found and tracked.” tutions that are already performing a variety Planetary defense, or public safety, will of relevant functions, including discovering, be Sentinel’s primary mission, said Lu. monitoring, and physically characterizing Once it is in operation, it will generate a the potentially hazardous NEO population flood of new NEO discoveries, far in excess and maintaining an internationally recog-

32 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 nized clearinghouse for receiving, acknowl- at the German Aerospace Center’s Institute edging, and processing all NEO observa- of Planetary Research. The NEOShield con- tions. The network would also recommend sortium consists of several world-leading criteria and thresholds for notification of an European research institutes and organiza- emerging impact threat. tions and leading U.S. and Russian space SMPAG would comprise U.N. member research groups. states that have space agencies and would While there are great strides being include representatives of spacefaring na- made in NEO research, Harris emphasized, tions and other relevant entities. It would there is plenty of work ahead. be responsible for laying out the frame- “We really don’t know what the conse- work, timeline, and options for initiating quences will be of a very severe NEO im- and executing space mission response ac- pact. You can make rough predictions as to USAF Space Command-operated tivities. It would also promote opportunities what would happen if it occurred over a Defense Support Program satellites are a key part of North America’s for international collaboration on research populated area. But we really don’t know,” early warning systems. In their and techniques for NEO deflection. he said. As the world becomes increasingly 22,300-mi. geosynchronous orbits, In the wake of the Chelyabinsk impact, interconnected, he added, loss of a city due DSP satellites can detect missile and space launches, nuclear Camacho was quick to note that if the pro- to an asteroid strike would have conse- detonations, and large ﬁreballs posed coordination mechanism had been quences for the entire world. entering the Earth’s atmosphere. in place, then “at minimum it would have “But we do need to have some sort of Credit: USAF. allowed for more observation and better background level of competence,” Harris understanding and education of the popu- told Aerospace America. Research must con- lation on what to expect, rather than having tinue, he said, adding that we need to “make a surprise effect with people not knowing sure we spend money on space missions what was happening.” that are multipurpose, and one of those pur- Increased global attention to NEOs poses should be impact hazard mitigation.” was evident as nearly 250 experts from For the U.S., the next steps in dealing around the world attended the Interna- with the NEO threat should include better tional Academy of Astronautics (IAA) Plan- coordination of the relevant government etary Defense Conference, held in April in agencies, suggested Lindley Johnson, pro- Flagstaff, Arizona. gram executive for NASA’s NEO Program Participants included Alan Harris, a Office in Washington, D.C. senior scientist and NEOShield coordinator “I think more thought is needed at the

Security duty for OSIRIS-REx OSIRIS-REx (origins, spectral interpretation, resource identification, security, of the Sun affects the asteroid’s path. This warm-up generates escaping regolith explorer) is a name reflecting the many missions of this NASA space- radiation that acts like a tiny thruster on the space rock. That small nudge, craft. It is to be launched in 2016 on a journey to a worrisome asteroid named day after day, year after year for hundreds of years, can alter an asteroid’s 101955 Bennu (formerly 1999 RQ36). OSIRIS-REx would rendezvous with orbit. The shift can result in an Earth impact, a close flyby, or a ‘clean miss.’ Bennu in 2019-2021, gather specimens of the near-Earth carbonaceous aster- After the OSIRIS-REx encounter, scientists will recalculate the asteroid’s oid, and return them to Earth in 2023. The mission is a partner- trajectory to assess the actual long-term effect of sampling ship of the University of Arizona, NASA Goddard, and Lock- operations. Depending on TAGSAM’s location on Bennu, heed Martin, with collaborators worldwide. the trajectory may be altered. That touch-and-go The spacecraft is to use a TAGSAM (touch-and-go sampling is a 5-sec, light touch, unlike the Yarkovsky sample acquisition mechanism) to collect at least effect, which, although minuscule each day, 60 g of material. That would be the largest occurs daily over centuries. specimen of an extraterrestrial object brought Quantifying the Yarkovsky effect on this home since the days of Apollo, the human potentially hazardous asteroid will demon- exploration program that ended over 40 strate yet another way of helping to protect Sample return years ago. Earth from future impacts. With time, capsule The ‘security’ aspect of OSIRIS-REx acquisition policymakers may well be required to agree involves Bennu’s high potential for crashing mechanism on what steps, if any, should be taken to into Earth in the late 22nd century. Indeed, mitigate asteroid Bennu’s risk of colliding every six years its orbit takes it to within with Earth. 278,867 mi. of Earth. Calculations of Bennu’s NASA’s OSIRIS-REx has an amalgam of future orbits indicate that for the next few asteroid duties, including spectral inter- centuries its probability of impacting Earth will pretation, resource identiﬁcation, security, be among the highest of any known asteroid. and regolith exploration. Lockheed Martin OSIRIS-REx will measure what is termed the is building the spacecraft using heritage from Yarkovsky effect, the degree to which the daily warmth Stardust, NASA’s comet sample return mission. Credit: University of Arizona/NASA Goddard.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 33 A new resource NEO research efforts have an important new resource. Data gleaned by • Altitude of maximum brightness: 14.5 mi., (23.3 km) sensors aboard U.S. military spacecraft that detect bright bolides entering • Velocity at peak brightness: 11.6 mi./s (18.6 km/s) Earth’s atmosphere are now posted on a NASA NEO Program Office website. • Approximate total radiated energy of fireball: 3.7 x1,014 Joules. A newly crafted memorandum of agreement was signed earlier this year This is the equivalent of about 90 kilotons of TNT explosives, but it by the Air, Space, and Cyberspace Operations Directorate of the Air Force does not represent the total impact energy, which is several times Space Command and NASA’s Science Mission Directorate. The MOA details larger than the observed total radiated energy. the public release of bolide data collected by U.S. spaceborne sensors. • Approximate total impact energy of the fireball in kilotons of TNT explosives (the energy parameter usually quoted for a fireball): 440 Capt. Chris Sukach of Air Force Space Command says that as a result of kilotons. the agreement, the NEO Observation Program is receiving information on Testifying before the House Science, Space and Technology Committee bolide/ fireball events based on analysis of data collected by U.S. govern- last March, Gen. William Shelton, head of Air Force Space Command, said ment sensors. In fact, data on the Chelyabinsk event was released as the the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) of the Joint Functional Compo- first new entry on the civilian website. nent Command for Space can in some cases task space surveillance sensors The MOA was signed on January 18 at Peterson AFB, Colorado, says to help track close approaches by asteroids and help predict potential colli- Capt. Sukach. For security reasons, the actual MOA is classified. At a NASA/JPL sions with Earth-orbiting objects. website, the entry on the February 15 Russian event provides the following Shelton noted, for example, that when NASA’s Stardust spacecraft re- information about the fireball: turned to Earth from collecting cometary samples in 2006, JSpOC was able • Date and time of maximum brightness: 15 Feb. 2013/03:20:33 GMT to modify some parameters of existing models and use space surveillance • Geographic location of maximum brightness: Lat.: 54.8 deg. N Long.: sensors to track the Stardust sample return capsule in its parabolic return 61.1 deg. E to Earth.

government level to put together a more co- There were numerous take-aways from herent approach,” Johnson noted. “We are the IAA conference. We are better informed attempting to talk to each other across the about asteroids and comets that could pose agencies and stay in synch with each other. a threat. There has been progress in devis- But there is not yet a coherent, government- ing techniques and tools that might be used wide effort.” He said there is no need for to deflect or disrupt an oncoming object. spending huge sums of money, “but there And there is a far greater understanding of does need to be an overall coordinated ef- the potential consequences of an impact, fort so that everybody is working toward the the design of deflection campaigns, and the same objectives.” political and policy issues that might affect a decision to take action. “We’ve come so far,” said the Planetary Defense 2013 cochair, William Ailor of The Aerospace Corporation. “Back in the old days we were speculating and guessing about so many things. Now there is so much good work under way. Even though we still have uncertainties, those uncertainties are being narrowed down.” Nevertheless, there are a number of thorny issues, he noted. One is the need for improved communications, to increase not only the public’s understanding of the NEO issue, but also that of decision-makers. Another challenge “centers on a cost- effective way to maintain capability,” Ailor said. “That’s a key piece.” Also, while the February blast over Russia was assuredly a wake-up call, its lin- gering message is likely to fade over time. “One real trick here,” Ailor concluded, “[is that] we may not see another Chel- yabinsk for another 100 years. That’s the is- An artist’s rendition of Japan’s Hayabusa-2 spacecraft making an artiﬁcial crater on an asteroid, later touching down on the resulting feature for sue with the probability business. It may sampling. Specimens would be brought back to Earth for detailed study. not happen for another 100 years, but it Credit: JAXA/Akihiro Ikeshita might happen tomorrow.”

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12-0209_revised DARPA, NASA, and other agencies are looking at how robotic on-orbit servicing could extend the lives of satellites in space, although making such missions a reality will not be easy.

Technology and cost are not the only challenges—liability, regulatory, and other issues also come into play. But despite all the complexities, many nations are showing interest in this area, and several demonstration programs are now moving forward. Servicing satellites

S. governments agencies and of the cost of a new satellite, it could bene- private firms often spend hun- fit them drastically.” U. dreds of millions of dollars Proponents of on-orbit servicing say building and launching a sin- the urgency and value of such missions is gle satellite. Yet for the most growing, as space is increasingly crowded part, when that satellite stops working, it with nonworking manmade objects. becomes space junk, even if some compo- “A more refined consciousness of the nents remain functional. need to reduce, reuse, and recycle here on In the past few decades, spacefaring Earth drives towards a similar awareness of nations have made several attempts to fix these needs beyond our planet,” NASA nonworking satellites. The most dramatic wrote in its On-Orbit Satellite Servicing were the space shuttle crew repairs of the Study, a 2010 report that captures work Hubble Space Telescope (HST). With the performed in response to a congressionally shuttle now retired, the U.S. and other gov- mandated study. “The proliferation of aban- ernments have several programs under way doned satellites poses known hazards to to develop unmanned systems for servicing newer members of the constellation, and satellites. Chief among these is Phoenix, an may occupy unique and economically valu- effort by DARPA to salvage a retired com- able orbital real estate that could be recy- munications spacecraft. cled for other uses.” Satellite equipment such as an imaging sensor or a communications payload often Risks and challenges “continues to be operational even after the “Despite this interest, there is still a long satellite has run out of propellant needed to way to go in developing this technology,” maintain its orbit,” says William Ostrove, an Ostrove tells Aerospace America. Whether aerospace/defense analyst at Forecast Inter- on-orbit servicing can take off remains un- national. “If a government agency or pri- clear, as it faces a host of financial, legal, by Marc Selinger vate company could extend the life of that and technological challenges. Contributing writer satellite for a few more years for a fraction “It’s very new and risky, and the space

DARPA rendering of Phoenix.

industry tends to be conservative when it solved, but haven’t been,” he says. comes to adopting new technology,” notes If countries can overcome these chal- Ostrove. “Costs are another concern. They lenges, they still face the risk that such need to be kept low enough so that it will technology will be perceived by others as a pay off to extend a satellite’s life rather than potential weapon, even if the developers launch a new one.…As with any new tech- have no intention of using it for aggressive nology, it’s hard to project costs this early or harmful purposes. Hertzfeld cautions in its development.” that “openness, transparency, notification, On the legal front, as the U.S. works and understanding” are needed to “defuse with other spacefaring nations, it will have that feeling and that worry” and avoid to address potential issues of international sparking an international incident. liability if its activities create debris that harms another satellite, according to Henry Past eﬀorts Hertzfeld, professor of space policy and in- Soon after the U.S. began launching satel- ternational affairs at George Washington lites in the late 1950s, it began laying the University. These liability and indemnifica- groundwork for extending their lives be- tion issues could be especially thorny if the yond their retirement dates. According to damaged spacecraft belongs to another NASA, the Gemini program in the mid- country and if private U.S. firms are in a 1960s demonstrated a technology vital for partnership with the U.S. government. Cur- satellite servicing: the ability of a manned rent plans for future DARPA and NASA mis- spacecraft to rendezvous and dock with an- sions include such partnerships. other vehicle in space. In the 1970s, a Sky- With on-orbit servicing, says Hertzfeld, lab space station crew successfully per- “there’s a risk that something can go formed the first on-orbit repair when it wrong, and it opens up the possibility of in- fixed a failing thermal shield on the NASA- terfering with operations in space—of our operated facility. own or of others’ spacecraft or equipment.” In the mid-1980s, a shuttle mission re- Such legal and regulatory issues “can be paired an ailing satellite for the first time.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 37 The Challenger orbiter captured the Solar Express mission in 2007, the unmanned AS- Maximum Mission, replaced failed parts in TRO (autonomous space transport robotic its attitude control system, and then rede- operations) vehicle refueled and repaired a ployed it so it could continue studying solar prototype modular NEXTSat (NEXT-gener- phenomena. Another orbiter, Discovery, re- ation serviceable satellite) in LEO. turned two errant satellites to Earth for re- “During its roughly four-month mis- furbishing and relaunch. sion, Orbital Express provided confirmation Satellite servicing achieved further tri- that key technologies needed for satellite umphs in the 1990s and early 2000s. The servicing are now in place,” NASA says. shuttle program flew five repair and upgrade missions to the HST. On-orbit con- DARPA’s Phoenix On STS-41, mission specialists struction and maintenance of the ISS be- Building on these earlier efforts, DARPA’s George Nelson and James van came a reality. And during DARPA’s Orbital Phoenix program aims to show it can recy- Hoften repaired the captured cle part of a defunct communications satel- Solar Maximum Mission satellite. lite in space. By 2016, the program hopes to conduct an unmanned mission to robotically remove a disk-shaped antenna, or aperture, from a nonworking satellite in a ‘graveyard’ or disposal orbit near GEO, which is about 22,000 miles above Earth. DARPA would then reuse the antenna to create a ‘new’ communications satellite. “Today’s ground-based robotics systems allow surgeons to perform telesurgery on a patient thousands of miles away, and advanced remote imaging systems used for offshore drilling view the ocean floor thousands of feet underwater,” states DARPA. “These types of capabilities, if reengineered for zero gravity, high vacuum, and harsh radiation, could be used in space to allow the repurposing of valuable antennas from retired GEO satellites.” The Phoenix demonstration will kick off by launching anywhere from 10 to 50 ‘satlets,’ small spacecraft similar to nanosat- ellites, as a hosted payload on a commercial satellite launch. Several different satlet prototypes no bigger than a computer lap- top are in development. Designers are also working on a payload orbital delivery system (PODS) that will safely house the satlets aboard the rocket. Launched separately will be a servicer satellite equipped with two 6-ft-long robotic arms. The servicer will capture the satlets from the PODS, place them on its ‘tool belt,’ remove the antenna from a nonworking satellite, and integrate the satlets with the antenna. The satlets will power and control the reborn space system, tenta- tively called ‘ApSat.’ DARPA is reviewing retired satellites that it could ‘harvest’ for the demonstration and has identified about 140 candidates from the U.S. and other countries, says David Barnhart, program manager for DARPA’s Tactical Technology Office. Before the agency proceeds with a mission for a

38 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 particular satellite, it intends to seek per- A servicer would attach a mission from the spacecraft’s owner. satlet to an antenna from a defunct communications DARPA plans to spend about $180 mil- satellite. Credit: DARPA. lion on Phoenix from FY12 to FY15, ex- pressing confidence that it will be able to minimize the impact of defense budget cuts. If the program succeeds, in-space servicing could ultimately revive multiple retired satellites, creating a ‘farm’ of recycled spacecraft. DARPA believes that recycling several satellites would cost a fraction of sending up new ones. Phoenix is a “modest effort we are at- ing, it sponsored a one-day international tempting, to essentially increase the return conference, Fostering Sustainable Satellite on investments for DOD space missions Servicing, in June 2012 in Arlington, Vir- and find a way to really change the eco- ginia. DARPA described the event as “an nomics so that, ultimately, we can lower open and honest discussion on nontechni- the cost of space systems,” Barnhart says. cal aspects of the new field of ‘servicing’ in The prime integrator for Phoenix is the space.” The conference drew more than Naval Research Lab. For the servicer, the 130 attendees from the international space program will use an existing satellite bus community and featured speakers from the developed by ATK, and robotic arms built U.S. and abroad. by MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates “We’re pursuing a technical demonstra- (MDA). The host of other tools now being tion….At the same time, we need the right designed include small cameras to see the policies and regulations in place to enable mission in real time, and grippers to grasp the program’s successful transition” to a and control the satlets and harvested aper- permanent capability, Barnhart says. “Both ture. A significant challenge will be sever- elements are critical.” ing the antenna from its host satellite while minimizing debris that could jeopardize the Restore mission or endanger other spacecraft. NASA also has its eye on servicing GEO “Almost all of [the apertures] are tied [to satellites, but instead of reincarnating them, the host satellite] via a boom of some sort— it wants to make them last longer. In a Jan- some structural element,” Barnhart states. uary request for information, the agency Severing parts from these will not be as asked for industry feedback on the possibil- easy as the team once thought, he notes, ity of forming a government-commercial “primarily because many of the booms are partnership, called Restore, to demonstrate In ground tests, a robot practices carbon fiber, they’re not metal, and they on-orbit servicing for these spacecraft. robotic refueling missions on flex whenever you attempt to cut.” mock satellites. Credit: NASA. Another major challenge is that the exact condition of the decommissioned satellite will not be known until the servicer reaches it. And the Phoenix mission will not have people at the construction site, as the Hubble missions did, to handle any sur- prises that arise. “If any of the [thermal] blankets are loose, or if an antenna guide wire is not in- tact, then Phoenix must be flexible enough to create maneuver and operations scenar- ios to deal with the situation in real time,” Barnhart says. “Design-flexible tools and operations are key to the program’s goals.” Although DARPA is busy with all these technological tasks, the agency insists it is also addressing the full range of relevant legal, policy, and regulatory issues. For example, to promote greater discussion and acceptance of responsible on-orbit servic-

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 39 For example, the agency is developing The goal of the Phoenix and testing technologies to prepare for a program is to develop potential Restore flight program. With the technologies to harvest components from retired Canadian Space Agency (CSA), NASA dem- satellites. onstrated the ability to robotically refuel satellites that were not designed to be serv- iced in space. During the Robotic Refueling Mission test, which occurred in LEO aboard the ISS in January, controllers at NASA Johnson used the station’s two-armed Dex- tre robot to cut wire and remove seals covering a fuel receptacle on a box-shaped mock satellite; next, a nozzle tool with an integrated hose transferred fuel-like fluid to “Such a capability would potentially the receptacle, which was then resealed. provide life-extension servicing over a range Upcoming tests aboard the station of candidate client satellites,” NASA says. could demonstrate the ability to replenish a Activities could include “remote survey, re- satellite’s coolant robotically, says Reed. location, refueling, repair, and component Equipment to prepare for the exercise was replacement.” launched aboard a Japanese unmanned re- If NASA leaders give the go-ahead to supply spacecraft, H-II Transfer Vehicle 4, pursue a full-fledged flight program, a ser- this August. vicing satellite could be ready for launch as If Restore becomes a flight program, early as 2017, according to Benjamin Reed, the leading industry participant will serve deputy project manager of the agency’s “not as a prime contractor, but as a partner Satellite Servicing Capabilities Office at who would co-invest with the govern- NASA Goddard. For funding, however, Re- ment.” Together these partners would cre- store is in the running with other com- ate a mission to demonstrate on-orbit serv- pelling programs, Reed acknowledges. icing, Reed says. The goal is to stimulate “As with all program new starts, we are the rise of a “domestic, competitive satel- subject to any number of external forces lite-servicing industry” to routinely maintain out of our control. Regardless, we’ll have on-orbit satellites for both government and the technology ready when given the green nongovernment customers. light from NASA planners,” Reed explains. “There are lots of important things that The GEO environment NASA’s doing. This is but one of many.” More than 400 commercial and government satellites in GEO are potential candidates for servicing. “We want to prove to the The Restore spacecraft (right) services world that it can be done out in GEO,” says a “client” satellite. Credit: NASA. Reed. “The advantage of GEO, of course, is that there’s a whole slew of satellites all parked right next to each other. You don’t get that in LEO,” he notes. Although NASA is developing new manned spacecraft, astronaut missions outside a space vehicle are not currently an option in GEO because of high radiation levels. “The radiation environment in LEO is manageable,” Reed explains. “Ditto for the Moon. But in between, at GEO, the radiation level is significantly higher—so much so that technology doesn’t presently exist to allow humans to remain on station for the time necessary to perform a servicing mission. Of course, robots don’t have such constraints. We are designing the elec- tronics to be able to withstand that environment, so they can stay out there for years and years.”

40 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 Although astronauts could operate mechanical arms from inside a spacecraft—an approach NASA refers to as “man in a can”—the agency concluded it would cost less to keep people on the ground.

International eﬀorts The U.S. does not have a monopoly on satellite-servicing ambitions. The CSA and MDA are conducting ground tests of a new mechanical arm to see if it could be used to capture a satellite floating in space, according to Jean Claude Piedboeuf, CSA’s acting director general for space exploration. “We are not planning to fly it right now,” says Piedboeuf of this Next-Genera- tion Canadarm. “It’s something we are con- A mock satellite is kept in a temporary location aboard the ISS before it is moved to an sidering.” The device is the newest version external platform for a robotic refueling test. Credit: NASA. of the Canadarm that was deployed on the shuttle and is currently in use on the ISS. EADS Astrium, the project’s prime con- The German Aerospace Center (DLR) tractor, says it expects to brief DLR on the plans to launch a robotic spacecraft called results of the current program definition DEOS (German Orbital Servicing Mission) phase, roughly in late October. in 2018. DEOS will rendezvous with and “To a large extent, DEOS is reliant on capture an ailing spacecraft in LEO for one technologies that have not yet been tested of three potential missions: deorbit the de- for space operations,” the company says. fective satellite so it can burn up as it reen- “In the definition phase, therefore, initial ters Earth’s atmosphere, put it in a satellite prototypes of the key technologies will be graveyard in space, or prolong its on-orbit developed, so that subsequent realization life if it can be repaired or refueled. of the project can progress swiftly.”

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LearnaeL rrnn MMoreorree Today! www.aww ww.. iaa.oa o.aa rg/hog mestudy 25 Years Ago, October 1988 research satellite Oct. 20 Cosmonauts Vladimir Titov and Musa designed to make Manarov complete a 4-hr spacewalk to repair a radiation measure- broken X-ray telescope onboard the Mir space ments. Aviation station. The cosmonauts are wearing new, more Week, Oct. 21, flexible spacesuits for the first time. NASA, 1963, p. 30; New Astronautics and Aeronautics, 1986-1990, p. 193. York Times, Oct. 18, 1963, p. 13. 50 Years Ago, October 1963 Oct. 18 NASA announces the selection Oct. 1 Rear Adm. James R. Reedy, USN, makes the first transpolar nonstop flight of 14 new astronauts for Projects from Capetown, South Africa, to McMurdo Sound, Antarctica, in a ski-equipped Gemini and Apollo. They are Edwin C-130 Hercules aircraft. The 14-hr 31-min flight, which covers 4,700 mi., crosses E. Aldrin Jr., William A. Anders, the entire Antarctic continent and inaugurates Operation Deep Freeze 64, the Charles A. Bassett II, Michael Collins, Navy’s logistic support of U.S. Antarctic research. DOD release 1313-63. Donn F. Eisele, Theodore C. Freeman, David R. Scott, Alan L. Bean, Eugene Oct. 2 The Short Brothers Turbo-Skyvan light freighter aircraft makes its first A. Cernan, Roger B. Chaffee, Richard flight, from the company’s Belfast, Ireland, airfield. The plane will be particularly F. Gordon Jr., Clifton C. Williams Jr., useful, says Short Brothers, in underdeveloped areas where only unprepared R. Walter Cunningham, and Russell L. grass landing strips are available. The Aeroplane, Oct. 10, 1963, p. 23. Schweickart. This brings the total number of NASA astronauts to 30. Oct. 8 Short Brothers and Harland’s first Belfast aircraft, a four-engine turboprop New York Times, Oct. 10, 1963, p. 1. strategic transport, is rolled out of its Belfast, Ireland, works. It is the largest plane the company has ever built. Aviation Week, Oct. 14, 1963, p. 37. Oct. 18 France successfully launches a cat named Félicette into Oct. 10 In the White space using a Véronique House Rose Garden, AG1 sounding rocket, and President John F. successfully retrieves the animal Kennedy presents in a safe landing. Washington the National Aero- Post, Oct. 19, 1963, p. 4. nautic Association’s coveted Collier Oct. 22 Famed British test pilot Trophy to the original Michael John ‘Mike’ Lithgow seven-man Project dies in the crash of a BAC Mercury astronaut One-Eleven. Born in 1920, he team. The award is joined the Royal Navy in 1939, made annually for entering the Fleet Air Arm, and the previous year’s “greatest achievement in aeronautics or astronautics in America.” for three years flew the Swordfish and Aviation Week, Oct. 14, 1963, p. 37; New York Times, Oct. 11, 1963, p. 18. Albacore torpedo bombers while stationed with the HMS Ark Royal Oct. 16 The U.S. claims a nonstop flight speed record when an Air Force-General aircraft carrier. He then returned to Dynamics B-58 flies 8,028 mi. from Tokyo to London in 8 hr 35 min. Maj. Sidney the U.K. and began flying experimental J. Kubesch commands the flight, which achieves an average speed of 938 mph. aircraft. In 1945 he joined the Super- The plane is one of three that took off from Kadena AFB, Okinawa, to attempt marine works of Vickers-Armstrong the record. All three bombers are assigned to the Strategic Air Command. The and was then previous record for the course was 17 hr 42 min, set in 1957 by Great Britain’s appointed chief William Hoy in an English Electric Canberra flown at an average speed of 335.7 mph. test pilot. He Aviation Week, Oct. 21, 1963, p. 30. later played an important part in Oct. 16 The Air Force launches two 485-lb Vela Hotel nuclear detection satellites the One-Eleven from Cape Canaveral on a Thor-Agena as part of a tandem-mounted series of design stages. satellites. These also include an advanced but far smaller 2.5-lb ‘pygmy’ tetrahedral The Aeroplane,

42 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 An Aerospace Chronology by Frank H. Winter and Robert van der Linden

Oct. 31, 1963, p. 7; Michael John South Africa, in the Mercury upper component of the Short Mayo Composite Lithgow file, NASM. aircraft. Mercury separated from its carrier plane Maia over the River Tay, a few miles north of Dundee, with a fuel supply of 2,100 gal, and proceeded at a speed And During October 1963 of 160 mph. Aircraft Year Book, 1939, p. 468; Flight, Oct. 13, 1938, p. 321.

—Manned tests with advanced proto- Oct. 10 A prototype of the four-engined types of the Apollo spacesuit and Armstrong Whitworth Ensign makes its first backpack begin at United Aircraft’s passenger flight over London. Imperial Hamilton Standard Division at Windsor Airways, which has ordered 14 of the aircraft, Locks, Conn. Hamilton-Standard is the is to introduce it into its London-Paris service. prime contractor for this equipment, Interavia, Oct. 19, 1938, p. 14. which it is building for the Apollo astronauts who will explore the Moon’s Oct. 14 The Curtiss single-seat XP-40 Warhawk prototype makes its first flight. surface. International Latex of Dover, The aircraft is essentially a P-36 with its radial engine replaced by an inline Allison Del., is a major subcontractor for the V-1710 powerplant. Close to 14,000 of these aircraft will subsequently serve suit. Aviation Week, Oct. 28, 1963, with the Allies during WW II. P. Bowers, Curtiss Aircraft 1907-1947, p. 474. pp. 48-49, 51-52. Oct. 18 Following his inspection of the 75 Years Ago, October 1938 German aviation industry’s facilities and aircraft, Charles Lindbergh is invested by Oct. 2 A prototype Dewoitine D.520, Field Marshal Hermann Göring with the the most advanced French fighter Order of the German Eagle, with Star, on used in WW II, makes its maiden behalf of Chancellor Adolf Hitler. Lindbergh flight. W. Green, Warplanes of the is the first American to receive the medal Second World War: Fighters, Vol. 1, and the first American decorated by Hitler’s p. 45. direct command. The controversial award, which was to haunt Lindbergh for the rest of his life, was given to honor his 1927 transatlantic flight. Interavia, Oct. 22, 1938, p. 4; The Aeroplane, Oct. 26, 1938, p. 486.

Oct. 22 Lt. Col. Mario Pezzi of Italy sets a new altitude record of 56,017 ft in a Caproni Ca.161bis biplane powered with a Piaggio engine and fitted with a sealed cabin. Aircraft Year Book 1939, pp. 163-164; Interavia, Oct. 26, 1938, p. 14.

Oct. 6-8 Capt. D.C.T. Bennett and And During October 1938 First Officer Ian Harvey of Great Britain set a new world seaplane —Britain orders 200 Lockheed Hudsons, distance record of 5,997 mi. from the military version of the Super Electra Dundee, Scotland, to Port Nolloth, airliner. This is the first U.S.-built aircraft to see operational service with the RAF during WW II. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics and Astronautics 1915-60, p. 36.

100 Years Ago, October 1913 Oct. 5 OWL (over water and land), the Navy’s first amphibian flying boat, finishes initial tests at Hammondsport, N.Y. Later renamed the E-1, the plane develops into the A-2 hydro-aeroplane. R. Grossnick, United States Naval Aviation 1910-1995, p. 12.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 43 New Faculty Search - Aerospace Engineering, University of Michigan

track faculty positions in areas of Aerospace Engineering that align with the principal research interests pursued

(2) Autonomous systems with application to autonomous aerospace vehicles, and (3) Composite materials and composites for aerospace structures. Both senior-level and junior-level applicants will be considered. Applicants must have extensive knowledge of and experience with disciplines relating to Aerospace Engineering.

are highly ranked nationally. Research interests of the faculty cover a broad spectrum of Aerospace Engineering including CFD for high-performance multiphysics computations, aerostructures, smart structures and materi-

department can be found at aerospace.engin.umich.edu. Applicants should have an earned doctoral degree in

aspects of the Department’s mission, including the development of a strong and relevant externally funded research program, the teaching of undergraduate and graduate courses, and the supervision of graduate students.

research and teaching interests, and the names and contact information for at least three references to the Faculty Search Committee, c/o Professor James F. Driscoll at [email protected].

or service, to the diversity and excellence of the academic community.

Faculty Position Embry Riddle Aeronautical University

The Department of Aerospace Engineering at Embry-Riddle Aero- nautical University in Daytona Beach, FL, invites applications for an Assistant or Associate Professor. The position will commence in August 2014. The preferred area of expertise is Astronautics and Space Applications. However, applicants in all areas of Aerospace Engineering will be considered. The Department offers bachelors and masters degrees in Aerospace Engineering and a Ph.D. program began in Fall 2013. The undergraduate program is the nation’s largest with about 1200 full-time students and has been ranked # 1 in its category by U.S. News and World Report for the past thirteen years. The Department has been focused on expanding its graduate programs, the research facilities, launching a doctoral program, and recruiting top talent.

Successful candidates for the Assistant Professor rank should demonstrate a potential to establish and grow a strong research program and to excel at teaching and mentoring undergraduate and graduate students. Successful applicants for the Associate Professor rank should have an exemplary record of teaching and scholarly activities including externally funded research. An earned doctorate in Aerospace Engineering or a closely related field is required. Women and underrepresented minorities are especially encouraged to apply. For more information about this opening and to apply online, please visit www.erau.edu/jobs and review IRC54568.

44 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 MECHANICAL AND AEROSPACE ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT Assistant/Associate Professor Positions (Ref #’s 00031194, 00058751, 00058753)

The Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at the Missouri University of Science and Tech- nology (formerly the University of Missouri - Rolla) invites applications for several full-time tenure-track As- sistant/Associate Professor positions in the general areas of: - Sustainable energy (Job #10893, Position #00031194). Applicants must have a Ph.D. in Mechanical

- Advanced aerospace materials and structures (Job # 10889, Position #00058751). Applicants must

higher level. - Advanced manufacturing, including but not limited to, nanomanufacturing, biomanufacturing, additive manufacturing, energy manufacturing, cyber-enabled manufacturing, and human-robot collaboration in manufacturing (Job #10891, Position #00058753). Applicants must have a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engi-

The successful candidates will demonstrate the potential to establish and grow a strong research program and will participate in all aspects of the Department’s mission, which includes research, teaching and service.

The department currently has 37 full-time faculty members, over 800 undergraduate and approximately 200 graduate students. The Department offers the B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. degrees in Mechanical and Aero- graduate program while maintaining its high standards of teaching. A recently completed $29 million renova- tion project has produced a state-of-the-art Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering complex with 144,000 square feet of teaching and research laboratory space. Details regarding the department can be found at http://mae.mst.edu/. In addition, details of research centers on campus can be found at http://www.mst.edu/ research/.

Candidates should include the following with their letter of application: current curriculum vitae, statement of teaching interests and philosophy, statement of research plans including areas of potential collaboration with other faculty, and names and contact information for at least three references. Review of applications

All application materials must be electronically submitted to the Missouri University of Science and Technol- http://hraadi.mst.edu/hr/employment/. All submitted application materials must have the position reference number in order to be processed, and, if applying for more than one position, you must submit a separate application for each position. Acceptable electronic formats that can be used for email attachments include PDF and Word; hardcopy application materials will not be accepted. listed in the application materials submitted. Copies of transcript(s) must be provided prior to the start of

- drawal of the job offer.

Missouri S&T is an AA/EO Employer and does not discriminate based on race, color, religion, sex, sexual orientation, national origin, age, disability, or status as Vietnam-era veteran. Females, minorities, and per- sons with disabilities are encouraged to apply. Missouri S&T is responsive to the needs of dual-career couples. Missouri University of Science and Technology participates in E-Verify. For more information on E-Verify, please contact DHS at: 1-800-464-4218.

NOTE: All application materials must have appropriate position reference number in order to be processed.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 45 College of Engineering: Open Rank Faculty Department of Aerospace Engineering University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

The Department of Aerospace Engineering at the University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign is seeking highly qualiﬁed candidates for multiple faculty positions in all areas of aerospace engineering, with emphasis on aerodynamics, autonomous aerospace systems, space systems, Wallace H. Coulter School of Engineering aeroelasticity, and aerospace materials and structures. Particular emphasis will Department of Mechanical and be placed on qualiﬁed candidates who work in emerging areas of aerospace Aeronautical Engineering engineering and translate their scholarly activities into high impact applications. Two Tenure Track Faculty Positions

Please visit http://jobs.illinois.edu to view the complete position Mechanical and Aeronautical Engineering (MAE) Department of the Wal- announcement and application lace H. Coulter School of Engineering (CSoE) at Clarkson University in- instructions. Full consideration will be given to applications received by vites applications for 2 tenure track positions at the Assistant or Associate November 1, 2013. Applications Professor rank (anticipated starting date: January or July 2014). A Ph.D. received after that date will be considered until positions are ﬁlled. in Mechanical Engineering or Aeronautical Engineering, or related area is required. Applications are encouraged from individuals whose research programs can contribute to areas of Experimental and Computational Solid Mechanics, Micro/Nano Solid Mechanics, Materials Characteriza- tion, Biomechanics, Dynamic Systems and Control, Multi-Disciplinary Optimization and Mechanical and Aircraft Design. Candidates who have University of Illinois is an AA-EOE. experience in design are especially encouraged to apply. www.inclusiveillinois.illinois.edu Clarkson’s MAE Department offers B.S. degrees in Mechanical Engineer- CANADA RESEARCH ing and Aeronautical Engineering, and M.E., M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in CHAIR (TIER II) IN AEROSPACE Mechanical Engineering. Successful candidates will be expected to teach R TICOBO S fundamental undergraduate and graduate courses in mechanical/aero- The Department of Electrical and Computer nautical engineering, and develop strong externally-funded research pro- Engineering in the Faculttyy of Engineering and AC.AID Computer Scienc at Conc Uniore ersitvdia y grams. Applicants should articulate a clear and substantiated vision of how invites applications for the position of Tier II Canada Research Chair in Aerospace R ticsticsobo . their background can lead to sustained accomplishments through teach- The chairholder will be expected to engage in ing, research, and an ability to engage in interdisciplinary activities and theoreticale and experimental researe h in succ h areas as space roboo tics, on-orbit servicv ing projects within one of the focus areas identified above. Clarkson University

(OOS), vision-based guidance of robotic OR stemsys , unmanned aerial v les (Uehic AAVV’s), is committed to providing an educational experience in which students C unmanned space v lesehic , autonomous and develop an appreciation for diversity in both working and living environ- ecr onﬁgurable robotic s adstemsy fvanc, aulted -ault

tolerant sensors/actuators, and related areas. ON ments. Candidates are encouraged to outline teaching, research, service CONCORDIA.CA A strongo emphasis is placed on fundamental C and applied research, interdisciplinary researe cesear h and/or outreach activities that support this commitment. parttnerships, and the ability to establish and vde elop industrial collaborations as well as international collaborations. TeTeaching is also Additional information about the MAE Department and the Coulter an important activittyy of the chairholderr.. Shortlisted candidates will be invited to make a School of Engineering can be found at www.clarkson.edu. Direct inquires presentation on their research. Please apply to: and applications, including a CV, a clear vision statement for sustained ac- Dr. William E. L h, Chairync complishments and the names of at least three professional references to Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering h@ecyncbl e.c oronc dia.ca | ece.concordia.cddia.ca Clarkson University’s Human Resources department. To submit your ap- tions beca the applifw oevieR the applifw tions beca gin immediately and plication, go to www.clarkson.edu/hr and click “Career Opportunities” on continue until the position is filled. the left hand navigation bar. Review of applications will begin immediately ectroniEl c applications are preffeerred and should be sent to the appropriate department contact by email no and will continue until the positions are filled. al ter than January 1, 2014. Only shortt--listed applicants tifiare notifiare ed. Appointments are exexpected to commenccomme e in the summer of 2014. Clarkson is among the top 50 universities with the highest percentages of tions shoulcaAppli d consist of de curtail culumried tenured and tenure-track women engineering faculty in the nation (ASEE vitae, a statement conc teacniner and reshing earg hch interests and the names of at l east three reffeerees. 2011 profiles of Engineering Colleges). We are building upon this founda- Relevvaant industrialex experience is an asset. Exc entell cacommuni tion skills are required. Knowleddgge of FFrrerench tion to create a diverse faculty and strongly encourage applications from is an asse b not t essut ential fofor an academic career at female and minority candidates. Clarkson University is an AA/EOE. Job Concordia. Membership or eligibility ffooorr membershipmembership in a Canadian proffeessional engineering association, preffee abler y Postings Fac 2013000355. e ovincin the pro e ovincin f Quebec, is required.

46 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 Faculty Position- Experimental Aerodynamics Department of Aerospace Engineering Embry Riddle Aeronautical University

The Department of Aerospace Engineering at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach, Florida, invites applications for a senior faculty position at the rank of Full Professor or Distinguished Professor in the area of experimental aerodynamics. The position will commence in August 2014.

The Department offers bachelors, masters, and Ph.D. degrees in Aerospace Engineering. The undergraduate program is the nation’s largest with about 1200 full-time students and has been ranked # 1 in its category by U.S. News and World Report for the past thirteen years. Plans for significant expansion of the graduate programs, research infrastructure, and recruiting world-class faculty to support University’s vision to be a leader in aerospace education and research are underway, which include a new engineering building, state-of-the-art research laboratories and new wind tunnels.

Successful candidates should have an exemplary record of teaching and scholarly activities including advising Ph.D. students, publication, and externally funded research.

An earned doctorate in Aerospace Engineering or a closely related field is required. Women and underrepresented minorities are especially encouraged to apply. Applicants must submit a cover letter, curriculum vitae, a detailed research plan, and the names of at least three references by visit- ing www.erau.edu/jobs and applying for IRC54507. All inquiries should be directed to Dr. Anasta- sios Lyrintzis, [email protected]

Aerospace Engineering University of Kansas

The University of Kansas Aerospace Engineering Department invites on-line applications for a tenure track/tenured faculty position at the rank of assistant or associate professor. Exceptionally qualified candidates could be considered. Current research areas in the department include aerodynamics, astronautics, computational fluid dynamics, dynamics and control, robotics and AI, flight testing, propulsion, and structures. Candidates with hands-on experience in experimental aerodynamics are particularly encouraged to apply.

Our faculty additions are part of the School of Engineering’s Building on Excellence Initiative, which will expand the School faculty by 30 members by 2016. Special consideration will be given to applicants committed to excellence, who can contribute to the University’s innovative, collaborative, and multidisciplinary initiatives to educate leaders, build healthy communities, and make discoveries that will change the world.

The University of Kansas is especially interested in hiring faculty members who can contribute to four key campus-wide strategic initiatives: (1) Sustaining the Planet, Powering the World; (2) Promoting Well-Being, Finding Cures; (3) Building Communities, Expanding Opportunities; and (4) Harnessing Information, Multiplying Knowledge. For more information, see http://www.provost.ku.edu/planning/themes/.

Applicants must have an earned doctorate in Aerospace Engineering or a closely related field prior to the expected start date of Fall 2014. Applicants should have evidence of the ability to develop and sustain a successful research program. Industry experience is desired.

All faculty members are expected to teach both undergraduate and graduate courses in an effective manner, and to be active in research and service, to both the University and the engineering profession. Research productivity at KU is evaluated with respect to publications in respected academic journals as well as success in acquiring external research grants, and financially supporting and mentoring PhD and MS students.

Review of complete applications will begin on December 2, 2013. Successful candidates must be eligible to work in the U.S. prior to the start date of the appointment, August 18, 2014. Salary is commensurate with experience.

For additional information or to apply, go to http://www.employment.ku.edu under faculty searches and look for the position by key word: Aerospace. Applications should include a letter of application, curriculum vita, three references, a statement of research interests and future plans, and a statement of teaching interests and future plans. Equal Opportunity Employer M/F/D/V.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 47 The

This annual black-tie event recognizes the most influential and inspiring individuals in aerospace, whose outstanding contributions merit the highest accolades. Call for Nominations

AIAA is pleased to invite you to nominate your colleagues for the prestigious awards that will be presented: t *OUFSOBUJPOBM$PPQFSBUJPO"XBSE t (PEEBSE"TUSPOBVUJDT"XBSE t 3FFE"FSPOBVUJDT"XBSE t 1VCMJD4FSWJDF"XBSE

Nomination Deadline: 1 October 2013 Save the Date 30 April 2014 Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center Washington, D.C. Reception begins at 1830 hrs

Visit www.aiaa.org/gala2014 for more information.

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AIAA BULLETIN / OCTOBER 2013 B7 16–20 JUNE 2014 ATLANTA, GA

The aviation enterprise is in a phase of evolving business models, increased efficiency demands, emerging manufacturing methods, and constantly CALL FOR evolving technology integration. These trends offer unprecedented opportunities and challenges for new capabilities. In addition to cutting-edge technical research presentations, AIAA Aviation and Aeronautics Forum and Exposition (AVIATION 2014) will feature panel PAPERS discussions and keynote presentations addressing such matters as: t The implementation of new air traffic management capabilities, t A rethinking of traditional commercial aviation operational models, t The integration and utilization of unmanned platforms to enhance our existing fleets, t An evolving financial landscape for both commercial and military aviation system acquisition, t Increasingly connected and networked aviation platforms, t The implications of policy decisions on how we define, design, and field new operational systems. These are just a few of the key themes we will address at AVIATION 2014. A full program of detailed technical discussions will underpin the high-level conversations to provide a wide-ranging overview of the state of the art in our industry.

ABSTRACT SUBMISSION DEADLINE: Sponsored by

13-67 14 NOVEMBER 2013 FEATURING: t 20th AIAA/CEAS Aeroacoustics Conference t 44th AIAA Fluid Dynamics Conference t 30th AIAA Aerodynamic Measurement Technology t 20th AIAA International Space Planes and Hypersonic and Ground Testing Conference Systems and Technologies Conference t AIAA/3AF Aircraft Noise and Emissions t 11th AIAA/ASME Joint Thermophysics and Reduction Symposium Heat Transfer Conference t 32nd AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Conference t 21st AIAA Lighter-Than-Air Systems t AIAA Atmospheric Flight Mechanics Conference Technology Conference t 6th AIAA Atmospheric and Space Environments t 15th AIAA/ISSMO Multidisciplinary Analysis Conference and Optimization Conference t 14th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and t AIAA Modeling and Simulation Operations Conference Technologies Conference t AIAA Balloon Systems Conference t 45th AIAA Plasmadynamics and Lasers Conference t AIAA Flight Testing Conference t 7th AIAA Theoretical Fluid Mechanics Conference t 7th AIAA Flow Control Conference

OVER 125 TECHNICAL TOPICS IN EXPOSITION THESE FOCUSED AREAS: t More than 6,000 square feet of exposition space t Environmental Impact of Aerospace Systems will display the latest in technological innovation. Book your space today. Contact Chris Grady at t Measuring, Testing, and Validation of [email protected]. Aerospace Systems t Aerodynamic, Fluids, and Thermal Sciences t Design and Optimization of Aerospace Vehicles t Aerospace Systems, Operations and Life Cycle

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Continuing Education Program

If you want to advance in your CAREER career and make a greater DEVELOPMENT impact with your work, AIAA can help you do that. The Continuing Education Program is UNPARALLELED designed to accommodate busy schedules and tight budgets. EXPERTISE AIAA offers the following types of courses: t Live and On-Demand Webinars CONVENIENT t Courses at AIAA Conferences LOCATIONS t Workshops t Home Study Courses

Visit the new Continuing Education website at www.aiaa.org/courses 13-60

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B12 AIAA BULLETIN / OCTOBER 2013 13–17 JANUARY 2014 NATIONAL HARBOR, MARYLAND (near Washington, D.C.)

J Stimulating Plenary and Connect with more than 3,500 innovators Panel Discussions and discover the latest in aerospace research, tDesigning for Affordability development, and technology. tR&D Policy Implications and Investments Featuring tContinuing Education and Professional Development 22nd AIAA/ASME/AHS Adaptive Structures Conference 52nd AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting J More than 1,800 technical AIAA Atmospheric Flight Mechanics Conference papers, including the best AIAA Spacecraft Structures Conference papers from students around the world will AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control Conference inspire idea exchange. AIAA Modeling and Simulation Technologies Conference 10th AIAA Multidisciplinary Design Optimization Specialist J Network and celebrate Conference great accomplishments 16th AIAA Non-Deterministic Approaches Conference during special events. 55th AIA A/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics, and Materials Conference J More than 8,000 square feet of exposition space, 7th Symposium on Space Resource Utilization with 50 exhibitors 32nd ASME Wind Energy Symposium showcasing the latest in technological innovation.

REGISTER TODAY! www.aiaa.org/scitech2014aab #aiaaSciTech Contact Chris Grady to book your exposition space today. [email protected]

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