Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 21St to 30Th April 2021

REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL

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ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 78

Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 21st to 30th April 2021

st 21 April 2021

© NOCC April 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC).

Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography).

ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°78 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 21st to 30th April 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021. This dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Harmattan in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and the influence of the monsoon over the rest of the national territory

II. Forecast Summary

II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Ngaoundal, Tibati and Mbakaou in the Adamawa Region; - Eseka, Mbalmayo, Bafia, Yaounde, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko in the Centre Region; - Betare-Oya, Yokadouma, Batouri, Mindourou, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla and Belabo in the East Region; - Sangmelima, Djoum and Zoetele in the South Region; - Munkep, Furu Awa and Ako in the North-West Region; - Loum, Baptek and Ndokama in the Littoral Region. NB1: This dekad from the 21st to 30th April 2021 will be marked by significant risks of heat waves (number of successive days with temperatures above 30°C) in many localities in the Adamawa (Tibati and Mbakaou); Centre (Mbalmayo, Bafia, Yaounde, Akonolinga, Obala and Mbandjock); South (Sangmelima, Djoum and Zoetele); the East (Yokadouma, Batouri, Mindourou, Lomie, Bertoua and Abong-Mbang); the Northwest (Munkep, Furu Awa and Ako); and the Littoral (Loum, Baptek and Ndokama) regions. II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Maroua, Waza and Mora in the Far North Region; - Poli, Touboro, Guider, Rey Bouba and Tchollire in the North Region; - Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa Region; - Moloundou and Garoua-Boulai in the East Region; - Lolodorf and Ambam in the South Region. NB2: This dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of days with cold nights in some localities of the Far North (Waza, Maroua and Mora); North (Poli, Touboro and Guider); Adamawa (Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga); East (Moloundou, and Garoua-Boulai); and South (Lolodorf and Ambam) regions. II.1.3. Thermal Differences This dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 will be marked by significant daily temperature differences (ranging between 20 and 30°C) in Ngaoundal, in the Adamawa Region. II.2. For Precipitation The period from 21st to 30th April 2021 will be marked by decrease in rainfall amounts in the Mono-modal Rainfall Forest Zone; increase in the Guinean High Savannah Zone, the Bimodal Rainfall Forest Zone (except for the South Region which will experience a decrease in rainfall), the Highlands Zone, as well as sporadic rainfall in the North Region and the southern part of the Far North Region.

NB3: This dekad, from 21st to 30th April 2021 corresponds to - the continuation of the short rainy season in the Bimodal rainfall forest zone (Centre, South and East regions); - the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and in the Monomodal rainfall forest zone (Littoral and

South West regions);

-the effective start of the rainy season in the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region);

-the extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions).

NB 4: This dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 is favourable to the start of sowing in the Guinean High Savannah Zone, Adamawa Region

III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 21st to 30th April 2021

1) For precipitation

For the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021, we expect: a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone Sporadic rains in the North Region and the southern part of the Far North Region. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone Rainfall amounts above those recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Tignere, Ngaoundere, Tibati, Banyo and Meiganga. c) In the Bimodal rainfall forest zone -above average rainfall amounts recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Bafia, Akonolinga, Obala, (a) (b) Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng, Ngoro, Yoko, Yaounde, Eseka and Mbalmayo in the Centre Region; - slightly below average rainfall amounts recorded from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Sangmelima, Nyabizan, Lolodorf, Kribi, Campo, Ebolowa, Ambam, Djoum, Akom II and Zoetele in the South Region; - above average rainfall amounts recorded from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Moloundou, Ngoyla, Mindourou, Garoua-Boulai, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Betare-Oya, Yokadouma, Abong-Mbang and Belabo in the East Region. d) In the High plateaux zone Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that - above average rainfall amounts recorded recorded during the period April 11-20, 2021 (a) during the dekad from 11th to 20th April Source: NOCC, April 2021 2021 in Bafoussam, Dschang, Mbouda, Bangangte, Foumbot, Massagam, Bare- Bakem, Koutaba, Foumban, Tonga, Makam and Bazou in the West Region; -rainfall amounts around the average NB 5: For the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021, we expect: recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Ndop, Furu Awa, Fungom, - a continuation of the short rainy season in the Bimodal Rainfall Ako, Kumbo, Ndu, Fundong, Munkep, Forest Zone (Centre, South and East Regions); Nwa, Bali, Santa, Wum and Benakuma in - a continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands Zone (West the North West Region. and North-West Regions) and the Mono-modal Rainfall Forest e) In the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone Zone (Littoral and South-West Regions); - rainfall amounts below those recorded - an effective start of the rainy season in the Guinean High during the dekad from 11th to 20th April Savannah Zone 2021 in Limbe, Buea, Idenau, Dikome - an extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian Zone (Far Balue, Kumba, Mamfe, Eyumojock, North and North Regions). Mundemba, Muyuka, Tiko, Nguti, Ekondo Titi, Bamusso and Fontem in the South West Region; - rainfall amounts below those recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Edea, Loum, Melong, Mbanga, Penja, Douala, Mouanko and Dizangue in the Littoral Region.

2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures -around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga and Based on the historical mean of maximum temperatures recorded Makam; below the mean in Bafoussam, Dschang, Mbouda, Bazou, Bangangte, Massagam and during this dekad over the period from 1979 to 2018, notably Koutaba, in the West Region; 39.72°C in the Far North Region; 39.86°C in the North Region; 35.34°C in the Adamawa Region; 29°C in the Centre Region; -around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Nguti, 29.85°C in the South Region; 30.47°C in the East Region; Ekondo Titi, Fontem, Buea, Idenau, Ekok, Tiko, Limbe, Kumba, Mamfe and Eyumojock; below the mean in Mundemba and Bamusso, in the South West Region; 27.48°C in the West Region; 27.7°C in the North-West Region; 29.5°C in the South-West Region and 29°C in the Littoral Region, -around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, the following maximum temperatures are expected for the dekad Nkongsamba, Mouanko, Melong, Mbanga, Penja, Douala, Dizangue, Dibombari and Edea; from 21st to 30th April 2021: above the mean in Loum, Baptek and Ndokama, in the Littoral Region. - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Maroua, Mora, Mokolo, Kousseri, Yagoua, Kaele, Maga, Bogo, Waza and Mindif, in the Far North Region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Pitoa, Lagdo, Garoua, Tcholliré, Rey Bouba, Guider and Dembo; below the mean in Poli and Touboro, in the North Region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ngaoundal, Tibati and Mbakaou; below the mean in Meiganga, Tignere and Ngaoundere; around the mean in Banyo, in the Adamawa Region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in (a) (b) Mbalmayo, Bafia, Yaounde, Eseka, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko, in the Centre Region; - below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Garoua-Boulai and Moloundou; above the mean in Betare- Oya, Yokadouma, Batouri, Mindourou, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla and Belabo, in the East Region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Nyabizan, Akom II, Kribi, Campo, Lolodorf, Ebolowa and Ambam; above the mean in Sangmelima, Djoum and Zoetele, in the South Region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bali, Santa, Wum, Benakuma, Ndop, Fungom, Kumbo, Ndu, Fundong and Nwa; above the mean in Munkep, Furu Awa and Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the Ako in the North West Region; same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (Source: NOCC, April 2021) 4

Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Bali, recorded in the dekad from 11 to 20 April 2021, for the dekad from 21 to Kumbo, Santa, Ndop, Bamenda, Benakuma, Wum and Nwa in the North West 30 April 2021, we expect maximum temperatures: Region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April th th - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11 to 20 April 2021 in 2021 in Mora, Makary, Maroua, Mokolo, Bogo, Waza, Kousseri, Foumbot, Bare-Bakem, Bafoussam, Bamendjing, Dschang, Magba, Foumban, Mindif, Maga, Yagoua and Kaele in the Far North Region; Bafang, Bangangte, Bazou, Mbouda, Tonga and Makam, in the West Region. - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April

2021 in Dembo, Lagdo, Rey-Bouba, Tchollire, Garoua and Pitoa; below the mean in Poli and Touboro, in the North Region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Meiganga, Tignere, Banyo and Tibati in the Adamawa Region; - above the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Lomie and Abong-Mbang; around the mean in Belabo, Ngoyla, Moloundou, Yokadouma, Betare-Oya, Garoua-Boulai, Mindourou, Batouri and Bertoua in the East Region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Ngoro, Eseka, Deuk, Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Mbandjock, Messondo, Nkoteng, Bafia, Yaounde, (a) (b) Mbalmayo and Obala; below the mean in Yoko in the Centre Region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Zoetele, Djoum, Kribi, Sangmelima, Nyabizan, Lolodorf, Akom II and Ambam; below the mean in Ebolowa and Campo in the South Region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Nguti, Ekondo Titi, Bamusso, Fontem, Kumba, Mamfe, Eyumojock, Ekang, Ekok, Buea, Idenau, Mundemba, Tiko and Limbe in the South-West Region - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Ngambe, Yingui, Ndom, Dizangue, Melong, Nkongsamba, Pouma, Manjo, Mbanga, Douala, Nyanon, Yabassi, Figure 3: Variation in average maximum temperatures for the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 (b) compared th th Edea, Ndokama, Mouanko and Loum, in the Littoral Region; to those recorded for the dekad from 11 to 20 April 2021 (a). Source: NOCC, April 2021

Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in maximum temperatures compared to their historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: -Ngaoundal, Tibati and Mbakaou in the Adamawa Region; -Mbalmayo, Yaounde, Eseka, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko in the Centre Region

-Betare-Oya, Yokadouma and Batouri, Mindourou, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla and Belabo in the East Region; -Sangmelima, Djoum and Zoetele in the South Region; -Munkep, Furu Awa and Ako in the North-West Region; -Loum, Baptek and Ndokama in the Littoral Region.

b) For Minimum Temperatures -above the historical mean recorded during the period from 1979 to 2018 in Ako, Furu Awa and Based on the historical average of minimum temperatures Munkep; around the historical mean in Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Bamenda, Ndop, Wum and recorded from 1979 to 2018, notably 27°C in the Far North Benakuma in the North West Region; Region; 27°C in the North Region; 23°C in the Adamawa - above the historical mean recorded during the period from 1979 to 2018 in Tiko, Mundemba, Region; 19°C in the Centre Region; 21.33°C in the South Dikome Balue and Ekang; around the historical mean in Bamusso, Limbe, Idenau, Buea, Region; 19°C in the East Region; 17.37°C in the West Region; Mamfe, Kumba and Eyumojock in the South West Region; 17°C in the North-West Region; 21.71°C in the South-West - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Nokama and Region and 22°C in the Littoral Region, for the dekad from 21 to Baptek; around the historical mean in Douala, Mouanko, Edea, Manjo, Mbanga, Penja, 30 April 2021, we expect minimum temperatures: Nkongsamba and Loum in the Littoral Region.

- around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Makari, Kousseri, Kaele, Maga, Mindif, Yagoua, Mokolo; below the historical mean in Maroua, Waza and Mora in the Far North Region. - around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Pitoa, Garoua, Dembo and Lagdo; below the historical mean in Poli, Touboro, Guider, Rey Bouba and Tchollire in the North Region; - around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Banyo; above the mean in Tibati and Mbakaou; below the historical mean in Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa Region; - above the historical mean recorded during the same period (a) (b) from 1979 to 2018 in Monatele, Ayos, Eseka, Yoko, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Bafia, Obala, Mbalmayo and Yaounde in the Centre Region; - around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Mindourou, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, Belabo, Betare Oya, Lomie and Batouri; above the historical mean in Ngoyla; below the historical mean in Moloundou and Garoua-Boulai in the East Region; - around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Nyabizan, Akom II, Kribi, Zoetele, Djoum and Ebolowa; above the historical mean in Campo; below the historical mean in Lolodorf and Ambam in the South Region; - around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Dschang, Bafoussam, Mbouda, Foumbot, Bamendjing, Makam, Magba, Bafang, Bangangte and Bazou; above the historical mean in Foumban and Tonga in the West Figure 4: Variation in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (21-30 April 2021) (b) compared to Region; historical averages from 1979 to 2018 (a). Source: NOCC, April 2021

7 Based on the difference between the average minimum -above the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Ndokama; temperatures recorded during the dekad from 11 to 20 April around the mean in Edea, Mouanko, Dizangue, Douala, Loum, Penja, Melong, 2021, for the dekad from 21 to 30 April 2021, we expect Nkongsamba, Manjo and Yabassi in the Littoral Region; minimum temperatures: -below the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Bamusso, -around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th Mundemba, Kumba, Mamfe, Buea, Tiko, Muyuka, Idenau, Eyumojock and Nguti in the

April 2021 in Mindif, Yagoua, Makari, Maroua, Bogo, Kaele, South West Region. Maga, Kousseri, Waza, Mora and Mokolo in the Far North Region; -around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Garoua, Pitoa, Lagdo, Dembo, Rey Bouba, Tchollire and Touboro; below the mean in Guider and Poli in the North Region; -around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Mbakaou, Tibati, Tignere and Banyo; below the mean in Meiganga and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa Region; -around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Bafia, Obala, Monatele, Ngoro, Nkoteng, Akonolinga, Yaounde, Mbalmayo, Nanga Eboko and (a) (b) Mbandjock; below the mean in Yoko and Eseka in the Centre Region; -above the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Moloundou, Betare Oya, Garoua-Boulai, Abong- Mbang, Mindourou, Belabo, Batouri, Bertoua, Lomie, Ngoyla and Yokadouma in the East Region; -below the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Ebolowa, Djoum, Ambam, Campo, Kribi, Akom II, Sangmelima, Lolodorf and Zoetele in the South Region; -around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Dschang, Bazou, Bangangté, Bamendjing, Magba, Bafoussam, Bafang, Foumban, Mbouda and Tonga; below the mean in Makam and Foumbot in the West Region; -around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th Figure 4: Variations in minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those April 2021 in Santa, Ndop, Nwa, Bamenda, Fundong, Kumbo, recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 (a). Benakuma and Wum; below the mean in Munkep and Ako in Source: NOCC, April 2021 the North West Region;

Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021, particular attention should be paid to the localities that have a very high probability of experiencing decrease in minimum temperatures compared to its historical values for the same period from 1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. They include:

-Maroua, Waza and Mora in the Far North Region; -Poli, Touboro, Guider, Rey Bouba and Tchollire in the North Region; -Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa Region; -Moloundou and Garoua-Boulai in the East Region;

-Lolodorf and Ambam in the South Region.

IV. Risks and potential impacts on socio-economic sectors

d) In the water and energy sector: a) In the agricultural sector: A high risk of recording cases of: A high risk of recording: • increased bush fires due to the dry season combined with the effects of dry winds and high • continuous drying up of water supply points due to drought and a continuous decrease temperatures, resulting in the destruction of fields in the Far North, North and the northern in the water table in the Far North and North Regions part of the Adamawa regions; - a high risk of recording a decrease in the volume of water in dams, water collection and • water stress for vegetables in the Far North, North and the northern part of the Adamawa treatment points in the Far North and North Regions region s following the scarcity of water resources and the accentuation of the dryness; - a high risk of falling of wooden electricity poles due to strong winds in the Bimodal -destruction of plantations in many localities in the Centre, East, South, South-West, Littoral, Rainfall Forest Zone, the Mono-modal Rainfall Forest Zone and the Highlands Zone. West and North-West Regions, due to heavy rains accompanied by strong winds - contamination of groundwater, surface water and water catchment points by polluted runoff in the bimodal rainforest, the monomodal rainforest and the Highlands NB 6: This period is suitable to start planting crops in the Guinean High Savannah Zone. . zones b) In the health sector: e) In the environment and biodiversity sector: A risk of recording cases of: A high risk of recording numerous cases of: • meningococcal meningitis, due to the severeness of the dry season in the Far North, North and the northern part of the Adamawa regions, coupled with high temperatures and increased - bush fires in many localities in the Far North and North Regions; - poaching in areas close to protected areas due to wildlife roaming outside reserves in dust particles in the air; • water-borne diseases (cholera, typhoid, yeasts, amoebiasis, dysentery, etc.), following the search of water and food, in the Far North and North Regions; - conflict between populations and certain wildlife species (Elephants, Lions etc.) in scarcity and / or poor quality of drinking water, in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones; • respiratory diseases (flu epidemic, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma attacks, etc.), following the search of water and food, in the Far North and North Regions. increasing presence of dust particles in the air in the Far North, North and the northern part A high risk of observing morning fog with a consequent high risk of traffic accidents in of the Adamawa regions; many localities in the Centre, South and East Regions (bimodal rainfall forest zone), West and north-west (Highlands zone) and South-West (mono-modal rainfall forest zone). • conjunctivitis due to the combined effects of heat, wind and dust particles in the air in the Far North, North and the northern part of the Adamawa regions; - A high risk of recording cases of floods in some localities in the Centre and South • general pathologies, in people suffering from hypertension, obesity, diabetics and women in Regions ( Bimodal rainfall forest zone), the North-West and West Regions ( Highlands menopause, due to excessive heat, in most localities of the 05 Agro-ecological zones. zone), the Littoral and South-West Regions ( Mono-modal Rainfall Forest Zone); • Proliferation of mosquitoes, malaria causing vectors, in the. 05 Agro-ecological zones. - A high risk of recording cases of landslides in some localities in the North-West and West Regions (Highlands Zone), Littoral and South-West Regions (Mono-modal Rainfall c) For the livestock sector Forest Zone). A high risk of recording cases of: • continued migration of transhumant herders in search of water points and pasture in the Far f) In the defence and security sector: North, North regions; A risk of recording cases of: • increased conflicts between pastoralists/farmers and between pastoralists around water - conflicts between cattle rearers and farmers in their search for water sources and food points and fresh lowlands in the Far North, and North regions; in the Far North and North regions. • numerous cases of epizootics due to the cold prevailing in certain localities like (Ngaoundal, - conflicts between populations in search of water resources and food in the Far North Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga) in the Adamawa and the East (Garoua-Boulai) and North regions, due to the continuous drying up of water points; regions; - Cases of conflict between populations of the Far North and North regions, for access • a scarcity of pasture and water resources in the Far North, and North regions. to limited water resources for various purposes (consumption, irrigation, watering etc.).

th th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the dekad from 11 to 20 April 2021

High Guinean Mono-modal Rainfall Agro Ecological zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau Savannah Forest Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West North West South West Littoral Minimum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018 (°C) 26.72 27.5 23.3 20.64 19 22 17.37 17 21.6 20.5

Trend forecasts Success rates of Forecasts (%) 80 80.5 83.3 84 77.8 83.1 81 79 80.1 85 Maximum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018 (°C) 40.04 40.46 35.62 30.86 29.3 30.06 27.66 28 29.63 28.71 Trend forecasts Forecasts success rates (%) 82 80.4 83.5 85 83.3 84.3 80.1 84.6 80.2 83.1 Precipitation Historic mean from 1979 to 0-60 61-81 82-101 102-121 122-200 201-210 211-240 241-260 261-300 301-350 2018(mm) Trend forecasts ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 100 100 98 100 100 100 98.6 100 100 100

Around the mean ≈ ; = Reduction; = Increase

VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to:

In the health sector, continue to: Plan agricultural activities, especially in the sowing season by referring to the agricultural calendar developed by ONACC for the 2021 agricultural campaign.

In the health sector, continue to: ▪ raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash hands regularly, wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, the population is strongly encouraged to drink warm water, etc.); ▪ avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings; ▪ dress warmly in localities experiencing decreased minimum temperatures during this period; ▪ apply appropriate lubricants to nostrils or put on facemasks to reduce entry of dust particles; ▪ encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; ▪ strengthen community surveillance at the level of rural health centres to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of diseases. ▪ continue vaccination campaigns against various epidemics and pandemics.

In the water and energy sector, to carry out: ▪ the regular sampling, analysis and treatment of drinking water at catchment points and water supply points before distribution to households; ▪ regular use of basic techniques (decanting, boiling, etc.) to make drinking water potable at household level; ▪ the replacement of defective (wooden) electricity poles.

For more information, contact, www.onacc.cm P.O. Box: 35414 House no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237) 222-209-504/222-209-500 e-mail: [email protected]