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Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 21St to 30Th April 2021

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Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 21St to 30Th April 2021 REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ----------- ----------- OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ----------------- ----------------- DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ----------------- ----------------- ONACC www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529 BULLETIN N° 78 Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 21st to 30th April 2021 st 21 April 2021 © NOCC April 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law. I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°78 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 21st to 30th April 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 11th to 20th April st th 2021. This dekad from 21 to 30 April 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Harmattan in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and the influence of the monsoon over the rest of the national territory II. Forecast Summary II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Ngaoundal, Tibati and Mbakaou in the Adamawa Region; - Eseka, Mbalmayo, Bafia, Yaounde, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko in the Centre Region; - Betare-Oya, Yokadouma, Batouri, Mindourou, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla and Belabo in the East Region; - Sangmelima, Djoum and Zoetele in the South Region; - Munkep, Furu Awa and Ako in the North-West Region; - Loum, Baptek and Ndokama in the Littoral Region. NB1: This dekad from the 21st to 30th April 2021 will be marked by significant risks of heat waves (number of successive days with temperatures above 30°C) in many localities in the Adamawa (Tibati and Mbakaou); Centre (Mbalmayo, Bafia, Yaounde, Akonolinga, Obala and Mbandjock); South (Sangmelima, Djoum and Zoetele); the East (Yokadouma, Batouri, Mindourou, Lomie, Bertoua and Abong-Mbang); the Northwest (Munkep, Furu Awa and Ako); and the Littoral (Loum, Baptek and Ndokama) regions. II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Maroua, Waza and Mora in the Far North Region; - Poli, Touboro, Guider, Rey Bouba and Tchollire in the North Region; - Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa Region; - Moloundou and Garoua-Boulai in the East Region; - Lolodorf and Ambam in the South Region. NB2: This dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of days with cold nights in some localities of the Far North (Waza, Maroua and Mora); North (Poli, Touboro and Guider); Adamawa (Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga); East (Moloundou, and Garoua-Boulai); and South (Lolodorf and Ambam) regions. II.1.3. Thermal Differences This dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 will be marked by significant daily temperature differences (ranging between 20 and 30°C) in Ngaoundal, in the Adamawa Region. II.2. For Precipitation The period from 21st to 30th April 2021 will be marked by decrease in rainfall amounts in the Mono-modal Rainfall Forest Zone; increase in the Guinean High Savannah Zone, the Bimodal Rainfall Forest Zone (except for the South Region which will experience a decrease in rainfall), the Highlands Zone, as well as sporadic rainfall in the North Region and the southern part of the Far North Region. NB3: This dekad, from 21st to 30th April 2021 corresponds to - the continuation of the short rainy season in the Bimodal rainfall forest zone (Centre, South and East regions); - the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and in the Monomodal rainfall forest zone (Littoral and South West regions); -the effective start of the rainy season in the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region); -the extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions). NB 4: This dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 is favourable to the start of sowing in the Guinean High Savannah Zone, Adamawa Region 2 III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 21st to 30th April 2021 1) For precipitation For the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021, we expect: a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone Sporadic rains in the North Region and the southern part of the Far North Region. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone Rainfall amounts above those recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Tignere, Ngaoundere, Tibati, Banyo and Meiganga. c) In the Bimodal rainfall forest zone -above average rainfall amounts recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Bafia, Akonolinga, Obala, (a) (b) Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng, Ngoro, Yoko, Yaounde, Eseka and Mbalmayo in the Centre Region; - slightly below average rainfall amounts recorded from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Sangmelima, Nyabizan, Lolodorf, Kribi, Campo, Ebolowa, Ambam, Djoum, Akom II and Zoetele in the South Region; - above average rainfall amounts recorded from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Moloundou, Ngoyla, Mindourou, Garoua-Boulai, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Betare-Oya, Yokadouma, Abong-Mbang and Belabo in the East Region. d) In the High plateaux zone Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that - above average rainfall amounts recorded recorded during the period April 11-20, 2021 (a) during the dekad from 11th to 20th April Source: NOCC, April 2021 2021 in Bafoussam, Dschang, Mbouda, Bangangte, Foumbot, Massagam, Bare- Bakem, Koutaba, Foumban, Tonga, Makam and Bazou in the West Region; -rainfall amounts around the average NB 5: For the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021, we expect: recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2021 in Ndop, Furu Awa, Fungom, - a continuation of the short rainy season in the Bimodal Rainfall Ako, Kumbo, Ndu, Fundong, Munkep, Forest Zone (Centre, South and East Regions); Nwa, Bali, Santa, Wum and Benakuma in - a continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands Zone (West the North West Region. and North-West Regions) and the Mono-modal Rainfall Forest e) In the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone Zone (Littoral and South-West Regions); - rainfall amounts below those recorded - an effective start of the rainy season in the Guinean High during the dekad from 11th to 20th April Savannah Zone 2021 in Limbe, Buea, Idenau, Dikome - an extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian Zone (Far Balue, Kumba, Mamfe, Eyumojock, North and North Regions). Mundemba, Muyuka, Tiko, Nguti, Ekondo Titi, Bamusso and Fontem in the South West Region; - rainfall amounts below those recorded th th during the dekad from 11 to 20 April 2021 in Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Edea, Loum, Melong, Mbanga, Penja, Douala, Mouanko and Dizangue in the Littoral Region. 3 2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures -around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga and Based on the historical mean of maximum temperatures recorded Makam; below the mean in Bafoussam, Dschang, Mbouda, Bazou, Bangangte, Massagam and during this dekad over the period from 1979 to 2018, notably Koutaba, in the West Region; 39.72°C in the Far North
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