Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-393 Manuscript under review for journal Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discussion started: 2 November 2017 c Author(s) 2017. CC BY 4.0 License. Potential future exposure of European land transport infrastructure to rainfall-induced landslides throughout the 21st century Matthias Schlögl1,2 and Christoph Matulla3 1Transportation Infrastructure Technologies, Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT), Vienna, Austria 2Institute of Applied Statistics and Computing, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria 3Department for Climate Research, Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, Austria Correspondence to: Matthias Schlögl (
[email protected]), Christoph Matulla (
[email protected]) Abstract. In the face of climate change, the assessment of land transport infrastructure exposure towards adverse climate events is of major importance for Europe’s economic prosperity and social wellbeing. Robust and reliable information on the extent of climate change and its projected future impacts on roads and railways are of prime importance for proactive planning and the implementation of targeted adaptation strategies. Among various menacing natural hazards, landslides stand out as 5 most destructive hazards to the functional effectivity and structural integrity of land-bound transport systems, since they cause long-lasting downtimes and exceedingly expensive repair works. Periods of heavy precipitation persisting over several days are known to be a major trigger for increased landslide activity. Along with climate change such events can be expected to increase in frequency, duration and intensity over the decades to come. In this study, a Climate Index (CI) picturing rainfall patterns which trigger landslides in Central Europe is analyzed until 10 the end of this century and compared to present day conditions.