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CJ ENM (035760 KS) Music Business Secures More Global IP

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CJ ENM (035760 KS) Music Business Secures More Global IP Company Report Sep 24, 2019 CJ ENM (035760 KS) Media/entertainment Music business secures more global IP To own IP of 5 boy/girl group in 1H20 After “Wanna One” disbanded (Dec 31, 2018), CJ ENM launched new band group “X1,” consisting of the highest-ranking members from reality audition show “Produce X 101” in 2019. Sales of X1’s debut album (launched on Aug 27, 2019) exceeded 520,000 units, the highest initial sales volume for a debut album. Although police are investigating a vote-rigging scandal at Produce 101, album sales volume, a leading indicator of fandom, remains solid. Album sales volume of “IZ*ONE,” a girl group consisting of the 12 highest-ranking members from the finale of “Produce 48,” now stand at 800,000 (320,000 in Korea + 480,000 in Japan) in 2019. As IZ*ONE is set to release its third Japanese single on Sep 25, its 2019 album sales in Korea and Japan are likely to hit 1mn. Even if X1 and IZ*ONE release no more albums in 2019, their combined album sales in 2019 will likely reach 1.5mn, about 60% of Wanna One’s 2018 album sales Rating BUY (M) volume in Korea and Japan (2.44mn albums). Combined album sales volume of X1 and Target price 303,000 (M) IZ*ONE in 2020 should easily surpass Wanna One’s 2018 album sales. Current price (Sep 23) W171,500 CJ ENM plans to launch 3 more boy bands from Sep 2019 to 1Q20, including one made Upside potential 77% up of the top-11 trainees of Produce 101 Japan; “TOO” (Ten Oriented Orchestra), composed of the winners from audition show “World Klass”; and one sourced from global auditions of Belief Lab (JV of CJ ENM and Big Hit Entertainment). 1) Produce 101 Japan is a joint Market cap (Wbn) 3,761 project between CJ ENM and Japan’s Yoshimoto Kogyo. Its first and last shows will be Shares outstanding 21,929,154 broadcast on Japanese terrestrial TV channel TBS, while other episodes will air on GyaO, Avg daily T/O (2M, Wbn) 11 Yahoo Japan’s video streaming site. 2) TOO will debut through Mnet’s new survival show Avg daily volume (2M, shrs) 63,749 World Klass (first show on Oct 4). Ten members will be chosen from 20 candidates. CJ 52-week high (won) 259,000 ENM producer Jung Chang-hwan, formerly of SM Entertainment, will take part in making the 52-week low (won) 150,900 show. 3) Belief Lab’s project will likely begin after World Klass wraps up, through a new TV Foreign ownership (%) 18.1 show. Through these projects, CJ ENM will secure IP for five idol groups within 1H20. Major shareholders (%) Profit growth begins CJ ENM’s music business will start to see profit grow after CJ Corp & others 42.7 2019 as it secures idol group IP. We expect CJ EN&M to create synergies between its idol and broadcast businesses. As for the “Produce 101” series, contract terms with artists Stock performance are lengthening each season, and the profit distribution ratio is becoming more favorable to (%) 1M 3M 12M CJ ENM. Moreover, the music division is hiring more producers, adding sub-labels, Absolute 7.9 (3.0) (33.8) cooperating with Big Hit Entertainment, and may acquire additional entertainment firms. Relative 1.8 8.7 (15.0) These will boost CJ ENM’s capabilities in nurturing idol groups, as well as in production and Abs (US$) 9.4 (5.4) (38.1) marketing. CJ ENM is becoming more of a content company than a TV ad agency, and is performing well in digital advertising and content sales, as well as the music business. These factors should boost its valuation multiples going forward. Quarterly earnings Forecasts and valuations (K-IFRS, consolidated) (Wbn) (Wbn) 3Q19E % YoY % QoQ Consens vs consens (%) FY ends Dec 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E Sales 1,219 13.0 -3.3 1,156 5.5 Sales 2,260 3,427 4,909 4,080 OP 86 12.2 -11.3 86 -0.6 OP 224 251 365 354 Net profit, CI 131 163 211 270 Pre-tax net profit 93 28.3 -1.5 89 4.7 P/E (x) 9.4 20.0 17.4 13.6 Net profit, CI 53 26.5 -16.0 64 -16.7 P/B (x) 1.2 1.6 1.1 1.0 OPM (%) 7.0 -0.1 %pt -0.7 %pt 7.5 -0.5 %pt EV/EBITDA (x) 4.6 6.6 5.0 5.2 NPM (%) 4.4 +0.5 %pt -0.6 %pt 5.5 -1.1 %pt ROE (%) 13.5 8.6 7.4 8.7 Source: Yuanta Securities CJ ENM (035760 KS) CJ ENM (035760 KS) pro forma financial statements (K-IFRS, consolidated) Statement of comprehensive income Statement of financial position FY ends Dec (Wbn) 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E FY ends Dec (Wbn) 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E Sales 2,260 3,427 4,909 4,080 4,433 Current assets 664 1,807 2,229 2,339 4,447 Cost of sales 988 1,998 3,068 2,496 2,705 Cash & cash equivalents 114 453 533 811 2,832 Gross profit 1,272 1,429 1,841 1,584 1,728 Accts rec & other 372 941 1,111 958 1,036 SG&A 1,047 1,178 1,476 1,229 1,332 Inventory 76 94 106 92 100 Operating profit 224 251 365 354 396 Non-current assets 2,138 4,948 5,259 5,266 3,416 EBITDA 469 777 1,187 1,082 2,512 Tangible assets 816 1,398 1,544 1,544 156 Non-op profit/loss -40 -34 -11 24 24 Investment in affiliates 96 1,241 1,288 1,296 1,353 Forex gain/loss 0 -2 0 0 0 Other non-current 192 276 272 272 272 Net interest income -14 -20 -15 -31 -31 Total assets 2,802 6,755 7,488 7,605 7,863 Equity-meth gain/loss 6 -2 51 75 75 Current liabilities 732 2,022 2,474 2,306 2,301 Other -33 -9 -47 -20 -20 Accts payable & other 446 941 981 954 1,090 Net prof before income tax 184 217 354 378 420 ST financial liabilities 22 693 780 639 497 Income tax 41 33 118 92 102 Liquid LT liabilities 152 201 441 441 441 Net profit from continuing ops 143 184 236 287 318 Non-current liabilities 586 1,308 1,324 1,324 1,324 Net profit from discontinued ops 0 0 0 0 0 LT financial liabilities 0 270 299 299 299 Net profit 143 184 236 287 318 Debentures 511 762 559 559 559 NP for controlling interest 131 163 211 270 299 Total liabilities 1,318 3,329 3,797 3,630 3,624 Total comprehensive income 142 134 269 276 308 Equity, controlling interest 1,028 2,763 2,984 3,216 3,478 Total comprehensive income, CI 131 113 248 253 282 Paid-in capital 31 111 111 111 111 Note: Operating profit calculation same as K-GAAP (sales - COGS - SG&A exp) Capital surplus 80 2,245 2,245 2,245 2,245 Retained earnings 924 1,070 1,257 1,500 1,762 Equity, non-controlling interest 456 662 706 760 760 Total equity 1,484 3,426 3,690 3,976 4,238 Net debt 489 1,384 1,502 1,083 -1,079 Total debt 686 1,933 2,218 2,077 1,936 Cash flow statement Valuation FY ends Dec (Wbn) 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E FY ends Dec 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E Operating cash flow 330 587 872 1,110 2,437 EPS (won) 21,054 11,514 9,637 12,311 13,636 Net profit 143 184 236 287 318 BPS (won) 170,555 140,757 151,974 163,788 177,168 Depreciation & amortization 166 180 211 209 1,597 EBITDA/shr (won) 75,472 55,033 54,137 49,334 114,529 Forex gain/loss 0 4 -4 0 0 SPS (won) 363,607 242,601 223,855 186,045 202,141 Affiliate invest gain/loss -6 2 -51 -75 -75 DPS (won) 3,000 1,200 1,400 1,850 2,050 Inc (dec) in net working cap -94 -81 -214 152 60 P/E (x) 9.4 20.0 17.4 13.6 12.3 Other 121 298 693 537 537 P/B (x) 1.2 1.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 Investing cash flow -256 -158 -869 -710 -191 EV/EBITDA (x) 4.6 6.6 5.0 5.2 1.4 Investment -55 8 -14 18 18 P/S (x) 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 Inc in tangible assets -183 -229 -192 -209 -209 Dec in tangible assets 1 3 0 0 0 Key financial data Other -19 59 -663 -519 0 FY ends Dec 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E Financing cash flow -62 -89 103 -180 -189 Sales (% YoY) 2.3 51.6 43.3 -16.9 8.7 Inc (dec) in ST fin liab -137 131 83 -141 -141 Operating profit (%YoY) 25.5 11.8 45.4 -3.0 11.7 Inc (dec) in LT fin liab 93 -11 58 0 0 Net profit, CI (%YoY) 458.6 24.3 29.9 27.7 10.8 Inc (dec) in equity 0 0 0 0 0 Gross margin (%) 56.3 41.7 37.5 38.8 39.0 Cash dividend -18 -21 -29 -33 -42 Operating margin (%) 9.9 7.3 7.4 8.7 8.9 Other 0 -188 -8 -6 -6 Net margin, CI (%) 5.8 4.7 4.3 6.6 6.7 Other cash flow -1 0 -27 58 -37 EBITDA margin (%) 20.8 22.7 24.2 26.5 56.7 Inc (dec) in cash & equivalents 11 339 79 278 2,021 ROIC (%) 10.7 8.5 6.9 7.3 11.4 Beginning cash & equivalents 103 114 453 533 811 ROA (%) 4.7 3.4 3.0 3.6 3.9 Ending cash & equivalents 114 453 533 811 2,832 ROE (%) 13.5 8.6 7.4 8.7 8.9 NOPLAT 224 251 365 354 396 Debt-to-equity (%) 88.8 97.2 102.9 91.3 85.5 FCF 142 428 660 940 2,267 Net debt-to-equity (%) 47.6 50.1 50.3 33.7 -31.0 OP/financing cost (x) 11.1 7.5 15.4 7.5 8.4 Note: CI = controlling interest EPS, BPS, P/E and P/B are based on controlling interest For valuation metrics such as P/E, historical figures are based on annual average prices and estimates, on current price For ROA or ROE, assets and equity are averages of end-of-year figures for the given year and the year prior Source: Yuanta Securities 2 Company Report P/E band chart P/B band chart (W'000) (W'000) 1,400 Price (adj) 700 Price (adj) 7.3 x 1.0 x 1,200 18.1 x 600 1.6 x 28.9 x 2.2 x 1,000 39.8 x 500 2.8 x 50.6 x 3.4 x 800 400 600 300 400 200 200 100 0 0 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18 Jan-21 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18 Jan-21 CJ ENM (035760 KS) ratings and target price history Difference (%) TP time Date Rating TP (won) frame vs avg vs high (won) price (low) 400,000 Current Price 2019/09/24 BUY 303,000 1 yr 350,000 Target Price 2019/05/10 BUY 303,000 1 yr 300,000 2019/02/15 BUY 338,000 1 yr -32.79 -27.87 250,000 2019/01/10 BUY 285,000 1 yr -25.05 -19.93 200,000 2018/11/08 BUY 310,000 1 yr -31.53 -24.52 150,000 2018/08/09 BUY 291,000 1 yr -16.27 -8.42 100,000 50,000 2018/07/02 HOLD 289,000 1 yr -13.10 - Analyst 0 changed Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep- 2017/08/30 BUY 237,000 1 yr -8.06 17.97 Note: Difference = (actual price* - target price) / target price x 100 * 1) The average price until the day target price was suggested 2) The highest (lowest) price until the day target price was suggested Source: Yuanta Securities Current distribution of Yuanta Securities Korea ratings Rating Share (%) STRONG BUY 0.6 BUY 88.0 HOLD 11.4 SELL 0.0 Total 100.0 Note: As of Sep 21 Excluding reports written or published by overseas affiliates 3 CJ ENM (035760 KS) Disclosures & disclaimers This research report has been prepared for informational purposes only; it does not constitute an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.
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