CCNUM College Name Status Justification 1 Eastern Florida Adjusted The continued impact of the Covid-19 pandemic makes predicting enrollment with certainty challenging. The data related to high school graduate projections and State College Brevard County population projections provided by the State to Eastern Florida State College (EFSC) have been reviewed carefully in addition to internal data and planned opening of academic program to adjust the State FEP/COFTE projections. The primary reason for adjustments is to account for upper division projections by the Division of Florida Colleges (DFC) that appear to be lower than we anticipate, to account for projected population and high school graduation increases, and efforts to re-engage recent high school graduates who have been more reluctant to start out their college careers amid the uncertainty of the pandemic. EFSC has increased upper division enrollment by more than 10% each of the last three years and we project that increases over the next few years will continue to be strong. This year will mark the opening of the fifth bachelor’s degree program at EFSC which we anticipate will contribute to the continued growth in upper division enrollment. With the exception of RY 2022, the DFC has projected decline in upper division enrollment by more than 2% each year. In addition to this increase adjustment, there are number of factors that in a normal year would support an increase in FTE projected over the DFC projections for the other credit types in the model. These aspects include: • Strong increases in enrollment in baccalaureate programs contributing to some lower division enrollment • Increases in Brevard County high school graduates • Brevard County population increases in the 18-24- and 25-39-year age group However, in the upcoming year we acknowledge that the pandemic continues to cause uncertainty with programs and courses that rely heavily on face-to-face instruction such as our vocational programs and developmental education. The extent of the impact is difficult to determine, but the projections from the state in these areas seem reasonable. Upper Division Credit Adjustments: EFSC started offering baccalaureate programs in the fall of 2013. Since that time, the college has seen phenomenal growth and interest in these programs. The DFC projection fails to account for this growth and had just one year of increase. We feel these programs will continue to grow, particularly the addition of our fifth bachelor’s degree set to start taking students in fall 2021. FTE was up slightly for the summer term (about 3%) and as of mid-July enrollment for the fall is at 81% of the final enrollment in fall 2020. With four weeks prior to the beginning of the term and about 12 weeks prior to the mini-semester, we anticipate higher FTE in 2021 fall than 2020 fall. At this point 39 sections are offered in shorter parts of term currently about 41% full. We anticipate these courses be at least 80% full once registration is complete yielding roughly 36 more FTE in these classes alone. Courses that start at the beginning of the term are at about 63% full and we anticipate that they will be about 78% full by the beginning of the term which should yield about 65-70 more FTE. This would put us at about 5% higher in fall 2021 than fall 2020. A modest rate of increase for the spring of 2022 was used to project the final FTE for upper division for the year to be just under 5% higher than the RY 2021. Lower Division A&P and PSVC Credit Types: The increase in upper bachelor students will also contribute to AP and PSV type credits as FTE of upper division credits bachelor students are about 70% of their total FTE with about 30% of FTE accounted for in lower division credits. Part of the challenge with enrollment during the pandemic year was that EFSC had the smallest FTIC cohort in several years. Using internal data by reporting year, we find FTIC students typically enroll full time and FTIC headcount to FTE enrollment ratio is about 1 to 0.67. For every 100 FTIC students we get we increase gain about 67 FTE during a reporting year. In part due to the uncertainty of the pandemic, the FTIC cohort dropped by close to 300 students between 2019 fall and 2020 fall term 1 reducing FTE by approximately 200. Efforts are being put in place to encourage more high school graduates to enroll at EFSC both immediately following high school graduation and for working adults who never enrolled after high school. A large portion of the decrease in FTIC students was from student choosing to forgo enrollment immediately following high school graduation. According to data from the National Student Clearinghouse, immediate college enrollment rate of Brevard public high school graduates from 2020 was about 7% lower (about 360 students) than the number who enrolled immediately following their 2019 graduation. The DFC projects that the numbers from 2022-2026 will increase over the next few years (POPHSGP). EFSC typically enrolls between 26%-30% of all high school graduates from Brevard public schools and these students persist to their second year in high rates. While this is true in a typical year, this past year was atypical. We estimate that the immediate effect of the decision for high school grads from 2020 to stay out of higher education institutions dropped FTE enrollment by more than 100. Additionally, those who started in fall 2019 were less likely to return their subsequent fall term. Retention of FTIC students from 2019 was about 6% lower than a typical fall cohort. EFSC has committed to encouraging recent high school graduates to enroll at higher rates through multiple efforts to engage community members in supporting high school graduates to enroll in college. Recruiting efforts that were scaled back in RY 2020-21 due to the pandemic will resume during RY 2021-22. This will help bring enrollment of upcoming high school graduating class will to historically usual rates of college enrollment for RY 2023. Additionally, administration and staff are working with local non-profit organizations (United way of Brevard and the Brevard Local College Access Network, Elevate Brevard) to develop strategies to increase college going rates of recent high school graduates and working adults who may benefit from furthering their education. In addition to efforts to get FTIC students back to typical levels, Brevard County’s population is projected to grow over the next five years in three key age brackets, 15- 17, 18-19, and 25-39 (POPAFEP). These age groups account for more than 65% of EFSC enrollment (14%, 26%, and 30% respectively). Increases in population in these age brackets will result in expansion of the pool of potential student and their subsequent enrollment at EFSC. In all, we expect the increasing population in key age brackets and the efforts to recruit FTIC students will increase enrollment and bring our FTIC cohorts back to a typical level between 2200-2300 students for RY 2023. The vast majority of enrollment for FTIC students is within the A&P and PSVC credit types and older students are enroll in upper division and PSVC courses. Re-distribution of FTE by campus is done each year to reflect the continued increase in importance of the Melbourne campus of EFSC and plans for moving a program from on off-site location to Titusville. Upper division, A&P, and PSV credits are added throughout the projections. There have been increases of face-to-face students in Melbourne due to its central location, and the relocation/establishment of academic programs on the campus. In addition, the FTE shifts to Melbourne recognize the many financial resources for online learning located in Melbourne. The shift in FTE is primarily from the Cocoa/Online campus to the Melbourne Campus. The projected proportions for enrollment more closely align with actual enrollment on campus and online. Clock hour credits are shifted to Titusville starting in 2023 with a potential move of the aircraft maintenance program. Adjustments were made throughout the model are noted in Other Factors column. In 2023 we expect HS graduate enrollment to increase. The drops in enrollment in developmental education is due to the trend of students opting out of enrolling in developmental education. Strong growth in bachelor programs will continue to increase throughout the model and adjustments for these credits are included in the New/Improved program-upper division credits (in RY 2022) to reflect the new bachelor’s degree opening in 2021 fall. In addition, we have adjusted the upper division credits in the Other Factors column to account for bachelor program trends in growth not reflected in the initial DFC projection throughout the six-year projection. The adjustment is mainly in the upper division with smaller adjustments in the A&P and PSVC areas to account for the sort of credits bachelor’s student take at EFSC. The State’s projections are adjusted to account for the anticipated increased enrollment in due to a rebounding of FTIC students in the second year of the projection. These adjustments are made in the A&P and PSVC type credits. 2 Year Row 2022 C. FTE Growth: HS Graduates 2022 D.1 New/Improved Program UD, AP, PSV addition of new BS degree starting in 2021 Fall 2022 D.2 Program Reduction/Deletion 2022 D.3 New Campus/Center 2022 D.4 Policy Decisions (Down Only) 2022 D.5 New Expanded Industry 2022 D.6 Other Factors UD, AP, PSV continued growth of bachelor programs 2023 C. FTE Growth: HS Graduates AP, PSV growth of FTIC students; rebounding from losses in 2020 2023 D.1 New/Improved Program 2023 D.2 Program Reduction/Deletion 2023 D.3 New Campus/Center 2023 D.4 Policy Decisions (Down Only) 2023 D.5 New Expanded Industry 2023 D.6 Other Factors UD, AP, PSV continued growth of bachelor programs 2024 C.