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Climate Change and the Wheat Crop Marie-Odile Bancal, Philippe Gate

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Climate Change and the Wheat Crop Marie-Odile Bancal, Philippe Gate Climate change and the wheat crop Marie-Odile Bancal, Philippe Gate To cite this version: Marie-Odile Bancal, Philippe Gate. Climate change and the wheat crop: The main impacts. The Green book of the CLIMATOR project, ADEME Editions, 334 p., 2011. hal-01192327 HAL Id: hal-01192327 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01192327 Submitted on 6 Jun 2020 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Climate change and the wheat crop: the main impacts C2 Marie-Odile Bancal, Philippe Gate Wheat A Some key elements for the soft wheat crop in France Center-North 3 3 West 0 Wheat yield (t/ha) 3.5-4.5 North-East 4.5-5.5 5.5-6.5 Center-East 3 6.5-7.5 Wheat area (ha) 17 1 000 000 South-West 94 South-East Figure 1: yields and areas sown with wheat in the CLIMATOR regions, with the proportion of durum wheat in red, and mean yields*. Means 2000-2007. Source Agreste. Occupying about 4.8 million hectares (17% of the UAA), soft wheat is the highest-ranking of French arable crops. Half the area is situated in the centre-north (fig. 1). The mean yields are about 7 t ha-1 with a maximum of 7.5 t ha-1 in the north-east and a minimum of 3.7 t ha-1 in the south- eastern region where it is usually replaced by durum wheat (cf. “And durum wheat?”). Soft wheat is grown for its starch, and an improvement in its protein content is often sought for human and animal feeding. The diversity of industrial outlets with a primary processing (semolina and starch manufacture, milling) and often a secondary one (biscuits and bread) involves precise specifica- tions to reach optimal quality at harvest which are specific for each industrial process. Wheat is a major crop in arable rotations. Its long life cycle, from October to July, its wide range of sowing dates and it relative tolerance to degraded environments make it an easy crop to grow, exploiting a wide range of environments; its sensitivity to heat and water stress* however limit its expansion into the southern zones. As to diseases, wheat is subject to numerous fungal diseases, both soil-borne (eyespot, take-all) and foliar (mainly Septoria leaf spot, rusts and Fusarium foot rot), which frequently affect yield and the technological, hygienic and nutritional quality of the harvest. It is also sensitive to waterlogging and has high nitrogen requirements. | Green Book | The crops | Wheat | Marie-Odile Bancal, Philippe Gate 155 C 2 Wheat B Simulation protocol of CLIMATOR The cultivation of soft wheat has been studied in monoculture with three crop models*, CERES, STICS and PANORAMIX, and several cropping systems* with the STICS model, including a basic irrigated cereal system (MWRW) and two low-input systems (SWSgW) and ORG). Durum wheat was only studied in STICS simulations as part of the MWRW and SWSgW successions. Sites 12 sites in mainland France including one at high altitude Monoculture (all models) Three successions (STICS): System • maize-soft wheat-rape-durum wheat (MWRW) • sunflower-durum wheat-sorghum-soft wheat (SWSgW) • peas-soft wheat-2 years of forage grass (ORG) Recommended management, sowing 10 Oct, 230 kg N ha-1 in 3 applications Sowing dates: 20 Sept, 1 Oct, 10 Oct, 20 Oct, 10 Nov, 1 Dec Management Irrigation for the MWRW system to 50% of water requirements (if necessary) Soil 1: deep silt soil with a high available water reserve (AWR) (226 mm) and average fertility Soils Soil 2: rendzina with a low AWR (104 mm) and low fertility Soil 3: leached hydromorphic soil with a high AWR (218 mm) and high fertility Soissons (early) and Arminda (late) which differ in their earliness at the 1cm Variety ear stage and duration of stem elongation Model CERES, PANORAMIX, STICS Climate SRES: A1B, ARPÈGE, downscaling: WT, QQ and ANO C Ecophysiological identity card of wheat in the climate change context Advantages Like all C3 plants, soft winter wheat and durum wheat are good for exploiting the increase in CO2 concentration, with both a stimulation of photosynthesis* and a limitation of transpiration. The calendar timing of its developmental cycle is generally advantageous for avoiding summer water stress*, and this could be further enhanced by suitable varietal choice. Also, soft wheat has high vernalisation* requirements: to complete its floral development*; it requires a certain number of days when the mean temperature does not exceed 10°C (about 40-80 days according to the varieties and the climate*). These vernalisation requirements depend on the variety and are a component of their earliness. Moreover, to flower, a vernalised wheat must be subjected to a long photoperiod, which gives a certain stability to the duration of the emergence-flowering period in relation to regional temperature regimes and climate change*. Thus the shortening of the growth cycle caused by climatic warming will be limited by these two requirements (vernali- sation and long days) of soft wheat. The beginning of stem elongation (or the 1cm ear stage) is a critical stage as regards low tem- peratures at the moment when the apex passes from the buffered temperature of the soil to that of the air, and from a vegetative physiology to a reproductive one: the temperature threshold 156 | Green Book | The crops | Wheat | Marie-Odile Bancal, Philippe Gate C 2 Wheat of –4.5°C for soft wheat is usually lethal for main culms during stem elongation (earlier, during the vegetative phase, one can assume a temperature of –25°C for the freezing threshold of the plants). This ear frost damage mainly affects the main stems which contribute about 50% to the final yield. Consequently, this occurrence of early freezing of the ears is regarded as a major fac- tor in the feasibility* of growing the crop, even though tillering can partially compensate for the losses caused. If, as seems likely, these ear frosts should become rarer with climate change, it is important to reconsider the timing of the sensitive stages in relation to the occurrences of low temperatures. Still in relation to winter physiology, the reduction of waterlogging may also prove to be favourable in certain regions. Weaknesses Although soft winter wheat is less sensitive to summer water stress than spring-sown wheat, it is on the other hand very sensitive to heat stress towards the end of growth, which can occur above 28°C: above this threshold, there is an irreversible cessation of the growth of the grains and some- times even abortion of grains beginning to fill. Also, above 25°C there may be a reduction in grain growth. More generally, one must consider the timing of the critical stages (stem elongation, flowering, grain filling) in relation to the occurrence of high temperatures and/or water stress, because it is these stresses brought about by climate change which could hinder the formation of wheat yield in the future. Note also that its vernalisation requirements make soft wheat sensitive to an increase in winter temperatures which, above a certain threshold, could become critical for its flowering. D Impacts of climate change on wheat growing Impacts on yield and its components The maps (fig. 2) show the geographical distribution of yield trends and their variability* for an early variety (Soissons) and a late variety (Arminda) of soft wheat, simulated with CERES. Com- pared with the RP* we see an increase in the yield of the variety Soissons (a mean increase of about 0.7 ± 0.5 t/ha for the NF* and of 1.2 ± 0.8 t/ha for the DF*), mainly in the east of the coun- try. This increase in mean yield is nearly always accompanied by an increase in the variability of yields, indicated by the shade of grey of the circles in figure 2. | Green Book | The crops | Wheat | Marie-Odile Bancal, Philippe Gate 157 C 2 Wheat Except for certain sites* (Bordeaux, Clermont and Saint-Étienne), the variety Arminda has a lower yield than the early variety (96% of its yield on average for the RP). It also shows a less clear trend towards an increase in yields: of about 2% and 6% for the NF and DF respectively, as against 9% and 14% for the early variety. Hence this all supports the view that for the late variety, the benefit of the increased CO2 is counterbalanced by the larger effect of stresses. These results, obtained with the CERES crop model, agree in general with those of PANORAMIX. One should note however one difference with the STICS model which, by taking account of wa- terlogging, simulates a substantial increase in yield at all the sites towards the west (Rennes, Lusignan, Bordeaux). Standard deviation (t MS/ha) : Standard deviation (t MS/ha) : 93 97 100 97 100 100 <1 <1 1-2 1-2 2-3 83 90 90 2-3 90 90 97 >3 >3 Mons Mons Versailles Versailles Rennes Mirecourt Rennes Mirecourt Colmar Colmar 97 100 100 Dijon 97 100 100 Dijon 97 97 97 97 97 97 Number: 93 100 93 Number: 93 100 100 % Feasability 97 100 97 % Feasability 97 100 100 Lusignan 90 97 100 Lusignan 93 100 100 1970-99 1970-99 Clermont Clermont 2020-49 St Étienne 2020-49 St Étienne Bordeaux 60 83 80 2070-99 2070-99 Bordeaux 77 90 97 73 77 77 63 50 50 Toulouse Avignon 93 97 100 100 100 100 Toulouse Avignon 93 93 97 100 100 100 Yield( t/ha) 80 90 97 Yield( t/ha) 93 100 100 9 8 8 9 7 7 6 6 Figure 2: changes in yield (means and variability) and in feasibility (percentage given below the average yield persite) of the soft wheat crop for the early variety Soissons (A) and the late variety Arminda (B).
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