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Exploring Opportunities for Novel Grains in the Australian Food Supply University of Wollongong Research Online University of Wollongong Thesis Collection 2017+ University of Wollongong Thesis Collections 2017 Going against the grain: Exploring opportunities for novel grains in the Australian food supply Thomas George Simnadis University of Wollongong Follow this and additional works at: https://ro.uow.edu.au/theses1 University of Wollongong Copyright Warning You may print or download ONE copy of this document for the purpose of your own research or study. The University does not authorise you to copy, communicate or otherwise make available electronically to any other person any copyright material contained on this site. You are reminded of the following: This work is copyright. Apart from any use permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this work may be reproduced by any process, nor may any other exclusive right be exercised, without the permission of the author. Copyright owners are entitled to take legal action against persons who infringe their copyright. A reproduction of material that is protected by copyright may be a copyright infringement. A court may impose penalties and award damages in relation to offences and infringements relating to copyright material. Higher penalties may apply, and higher damages may be awarded, for offences and infringements involving the conversion of material into digital or electronic form. Unless otherwise indicated, the views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the University of Wollongong. Recommended Citation Simnadis, Thomas George, Going against the grain: Exploring opportunities for novel grains in the Australian food supply, Doctor of Philosophy thesis, School of Medicine, University of Wollongong, 2017. https://ro.uow.edu.au/theses1/205 Research Online is the open access institutional repository for the University of Wollongong. For further information contact the UOW Library: [email protected] Going against the grain: Exploring opportunities for novel grains in the Australian food supply School of Medicine Faculty of Science, Medicine and Health Thomas George Simnadis Bachelor of Commerce (Economics) (University of Wollongong) Bachelor of Science (Nutrition) (University of Wollongong) Honours Class 1 (University of Wollongong) This thesis is presented as part of the requirement for the award of the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Wollongong 2017 ABSTRACT Background: Grains are present in a myriad of recognisable food products, such as bread, pasta and breakfast cereals. The vast majority of grain consumption (over 90%) is however dominated by wheat, rice and corn. As the global population grows and the demand for food increases, current farming systems are under pressure to enhance their productivity to meet these future demands. However, in the face of global climate change, land degradation and water scarcity, productivity gains for the major dietary grains may be increasingly hard to capture, requiring a rethink of the current grain supply strategy. Rather than being reliant on a homogenous group of staple commodities, there may be value associated with the diversification of production systems to incorporate underutilised novel grains. The research presented in this thesis aimed to explore the potential sources of value associated with the incorporation of novel grains into the Australian food supply. Research Approach: Sorghum and quinoa, two examples of underutilised ancient grains were selected as case studies to investigate potential sources of value associated with their incorporation into the food supply. The research presented in this thesis conceptualised the incorporation process as an example of an incremental innovation. By adopting an interdisciplinary research approach, sources of value across the domains of strategic planning, nutrition science and economics were explored. Three distinct studies that utilised a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods underpinned the analysis. Study 1 – Stakeholder Considerations: Part A of Study 1 conceptualised the range of activities that are required to deliver a grain from farm to fork, as a business ecosystem. A series of semi-structured interviews were performed to identify potential sources of stakeholder value associated with incorporating novel grains into the food supply. This value was captured as strategic, operational and end-user. The diffusion of innovation theory was then applied to evaluate variables influencing the potential for novel grains to be adopted by stakeholders across the ecosystem. Factors such as relative advantage, complexity, compatibility, trialability, observability and the new dimension of impression revealed that behavioural changes and information flow were likely to influence the scope for novel grains to diffuse across the ecosystem. Part B of Study 1 identified the type and ii position of risk across the ecosystem. Execution risk, co-innovation risk and adoption chain risk were identified across the business ecosystem. This classification of risk recognised that activities occurring upstream and downstream of specific stakeholders must be considered when incorporating novel grains into the food supply. Ultimately, the results from Part A and Part B revealed that stakeholder collaboration and alignment of objectives were critical to the capture of value in the business ecosystem. Study 2 – Nutritional Attributes of Sorghum and Quinoa: As consumers become increasingly aware of the link between nutrition and health, identifying nutritional attributes of novel grains may enhance their attractiveness as a component of product formulations. Part A of Study 2 systematically reviewed the nutritional attributes of sorghum by exploring the effects on human health outcomes. The results indicated that sorghum could attenuate blood glucose responses and decrease oxidative stress. Part B of Study 2 systematically reviewed the nutritional attributes of quinoa by exploring the effects on animal health. The results suggested that animals consuming quinoa experienced less weight gain than animals consuming a control diet. The combination of results from Part A and Part B suggested that sorghum and quinoa may have superior nutritional attributes to other staple grains. Despite the rigour and potential applicability of this method to other novel grains, the importance of nutrition as a source of value in product development must be balanced against factors such as price and taste. Research exposing the nutritional attributes of a novel grain is therefore valuable, but not sufficient to guarantee product development and ultimately incorporation into the food supply. Study 3 – Supply and Acreage of Novel Grains: Empirical Modelling: The final component of the thesis involved the development of an empirical model to quantitatively assess the impact that a range of variables had on the planting of sorghum acreage by Australian farmers. A panel data model that captured sorghum acreage over time and across Australian geographic regions demonstrated that previous planting decisions, crop prices, fertiliser prices and rainfall all had a statistically significant (all p<0.05) impact on the area of land planted to sorghum. The unexpected positive coefficient on the variable representing the price of fertiliser implies that farmers switch to sorghum acreage when fertiliser prices rise. This suggests that sorghum requires lower fertiliser inputs and may therefore be more environmentally sustainable. More generally, these results highlight the economic rationale (captured through crop prices) behind farmer’s acreage decisions. iii The results suggest that price incentives must be present for farmers to supply sorghum and potentially other novel grains to market. This has implications for the continuity of supply of novel grains and their potential incorporation into the food supply. Summary and Conclusions: The application of sorghum and quinoa as case studies enabled an overview of the potential pathway to market for novel grains to be identified. Collaborative orchestration of the business ecosystem and the scope to generate monetary returns were identified as key factors that could contribute to the generation of value in the market for novel grains. The interdisciplinary approach adopted by this research enabled a framework that captured insights from strategic planning, nutrition science and economics to be developed. This framework revealed potential sources of value associated with an agricultural innovation, offering clear practical and theoretical contributions. In addition, this framework may have applicability to other novel grains as a means of evaluating potential sources of value associated with their incorporation into the Australian food supply. This will have implications for the diversity of the Australian food system and the potential for stakeholders across the business ecosystem to engage in innovation to deliver novel grains to market. iv DECLARATION I, Thomas Simnadis, hereby declare that this thesis, submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the award Doctor of Philosophy, in the Faculty of Science, Medicine & Health, University of Wollongong, is my own work unless otherwise referenced or acknowledged. This document has not been submitted in whole, or in part, for qualification at any other academic institution. Thomas G Simnadis Date: v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS To begin with, I would like to thank my supervisors for their unwavering patience and support. Without
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