August 2014 Forecast.Indd
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August 2014 Monthly Forecast 2 In Hindsight: The Overview Security Council’s Action on Downed Passenger Flights The UK will hold the presidency of the Coun- • the situation in Sudan and the work of AU-UN 3 Status Update since our cil in August. An open debate on the role of the Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID), like- July Forecast Security Council in conflict prevention, with ly by Joint Special Representative Mohamed 4 briefings by Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Ibn Chambas; 5 South Sudan High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pil- • developments in Libya by Special Representa- 7 Sudan and South lay, is planned. A high-level debate is envisaged tive Tarek Mitri; and Sudan on the Democratic Republic of the Congo, to be • the situation in the Central African Republic presided by the UK Minister for Africa, Mark by Special Representative Babacar Gaye. 9 Sudan (Darfur) Simmonds, with Special Representative Martin Briefings in consultations are likely on: 10 Central African Kobler and exiting Special Envoy to the Great • the implementation of resolution 2118 regard- Republic Lakes Region Mary Robinson as likely briefers. A ing the destruction of Syria’s chemical weap- 12 Democratic Republic of debate on Kosovo is expected, with a briefing by ons, by Sigrid Kaag, Special Coordinator of the Congo Special Representative Farid Zarif, by video tele- the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemi- 14 Burundi conference (VTC). Also in August, the Council is cal Weapons-UN Joint Mission (by VTC); 15 Guinea-Bissau planning a visiting mission to Europe and Africa. • Sudan-South Sudan issues by Special Envoy 17 Libya Briefings are expected on: Haile Menkerios, and the work of the UN • the protection of humanitarian workers in Interim Security Force for Abyei, by DPKO; 18 Syria armed conflict, to mark World Humanitar- • the work of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Com- 20 Lebanon ian Day on 19 August, with Deputy Secre- mittee by its chair, Ambassador María Cristina 21 Yemen tary-General Jan Eliasson (or Under-Secre- Perceval (Argentina); 22 tary-General for Humanitarian A!airs Valerie • the work of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon 24 DPRK Amos) and ICRC President Peter Maurer as (UNIFIL), by DPKO; likely briefers; and • developments in Guinea-Bissau, by the Special 25 • the Council visiting mission, by the leaders of Representative Miguel Trovoada; 26 Visiting Mission to the trip’s di!erent segments. • the situation in Ye m e n , by Special Adviser Europe and Africa Briefings, followed by consultations, are Jamal Benomar; 28 Notable Dates expected on: • the work of the 1533 DRC Sanctions Com- • the Middle East; mittee by its chair, Jordan; and • progress in delivering humanitarian aid across • the work of the 1718 Democratic People’s Syria’s borders and conflict lines following the Republic of Korea Sanctions Commit- adoption of resolutions 2139 and 2165, by the tee by its chair, Ambassador Sylvie Lucas O"ce for the Coordination of Humanitarian (Luxembourg). A!airs; Formal sessions will be needed to adopt reso- • developments in Burundi, by Special Rep- lutions renewing the mandates of UNIFIL and resentative Parfait Onanga-Anyanga and the UNAMID. chair of the Peacebuilding Commission’s Throughout the month members will be fol- Burundi configuration (Switzerland); lowing closely events in Ukraine, Iraq, as well as 1 August 2014 • the situation in South Sudan, by the Depart- in Gaza and Israel and additional meetings may securitycouncilreport.org. ment for Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO); be scheduled. • Security Council actions please subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: The Security Council’s Action on Downed PAssenger Flights Over the past 60 years, nearly 20 civilian airspace had been “rudely violated,” that the Iran-Iraq war, ongoing since 1980. The planes have been shot down in various places it tried to establish contact with the plane US mistook the Airbus A300 for a fighter around the globe. Some downings occurred and that the intruder eventually left the air- plane, killing all 290 people on board. Iran when a plane strayed o! its route into the space flying towards the Sea of Japan. The requested an urgent meeting of the Security territory of a state that perceived the aircraft USSR representative called the reaction to Council in a 5 July letter and held four open as a threat (such as El Al flight 402, shot the incident a “hullabaloo” and implied that debates as of 14 July to consider the matter down by Bulgaria on 27 July 1955, or Libyan the US Central Intelligence Agency had been (S/PV.2818 through 2821). Iran urged the Arab Airlines flight 114, shot by Israel after involved in the incident. Council to condemn the US for the downing it got lost on its way to Cairo on 21 Febru- During the subsequent meetings, di!er- of the airliner and to “take immediate mea- ary 1973). Some were shot down acciden- ent scenarios were presented by the USSR sures to compel the United States to abandon tally during a military exercise conducted and US representatives, with the Cold War this war-mongering and arrogant mentality by the state in whose airspace the disaster rhetoric becoming increasingly shrill. The in the Persian Gulf”. The US pointed out occurred. Several were deliberately targeted USSR eventually admitted that the plane Iran’s disregard for resolution 598 (adopt- by insurgents on the ground, including Air was shot down over its airspace and had ed in July 1987, it demanded an immediate Rhodesia flight 825, which was downed on 3 crashed but continued to insist that flight ceasefire between Iran and Iraq), citing this September 1978 by the Zimbabwe’s People’s 007’s straying into Soviet airspace was a as a reason for its military presence in the Revolutionary Army, who then rounded up deliberate “provocation”. Persian Gulf. The US did not deny shooting and executed 10 of the 18 survivors on the A draft resolution co-sponsored by both down flight 665 yet o!ered several details, ground, or three Transair Georgia flights shot Council and non-Council member states was some of which were later proved to be incor- at by Abkhazian rebels near or at Sukhumi circulated on 8 September. It deplored the rect, to justify its actions, and did not apolo- airport on 21, 22 and 23 September 1993. tragic loss of life, urged all states to comply gise. Intense diplomatic work ensued and on Several of these incidents resulted in inter- with the aims and objectives of ICAO and to 17 July Iran informed the Secretary-General national frictions and heightened internation- cooperate fully with its e!orts to strength- that it accepted resolution 598. In turn, on al tension. Prior to the downing of Malaysian en international civil aviation safety and to 20 July, the Council unanimously adopted Airlines flight 17 on 17 July 2014, however, prevent the recurrence of the use of armed resolution 616, in which it expressed deep only two had been discussed by the Council force against international civil aviation. It distress at the US warship’s downing of flight formally in a series of substantive meetings. also asked the Secretary-General to conduct 655, welcomed the ICAO’s decision to con- In a 1 September 1983 letter to the Presi- “a full investigation into the circumstances of duct an immediate investigation and urged dent of the Council, the Republic of Korea the tragedy” and to report the findings within “honourable and durable” settlement of the (ROK) requested an urgent meeting after 14 days. The draft was put to a vote on 12 Iran-Iraq conflict. What followed were several Korean Air Lines flight 007, with 269 peo- September and vetoed by the USSR (with weeks of further diplomatic activity and the ple aboard, had been shot down by a Soviet Poland also voting against and China, Guy- establishment in August of the UN Iran-Iraq fighter plane. Between 2-12 September, the ana, Nicaragua and Zimbabwe abstaining). Military Observer Group. The decade-long Council held six open debates (S/PV.2470 Over the course of the meetings regarding conflict was ultimately ended in 1990. through 2474 and S/PV.2476) on the mat- flight 007, several states pointed out the use- Given the long aftermath of these earli- ter. During the first meeting, the ROK called fulness of conducting a thorough investiga- er incidents, it is impossible to predict now on the Soviet Union (USSR) to provide a tion and expressed hopes that there would be whether the tragedy of Malaysian Airlines detailed account of what happened; o!er an improvements in international civil aviation flight 17 might serve as a catalyst for the apology; guarantee unimpeded access to the law that would help avoid similar tragedies political steps that would lead to a settlement crash site by international aviation investiga- in the future. Yet five years later, another pas- of the conflict in Ukraine. Not only does the tors, such as the International Civil Aviation senger jet was shot down by a superpower. Council treat each tragedy di!erently, and at Organization (ICAO); return the remains; On 3 July 1988, Iran Air flight 655 bound times fails to take any action, as was the case and give credible, specific, concrete and for Dubai was shot down by the US Navy with the still unresolved shooting down over e!ective guarantees against similar actions missile cruiser USS Vincennes, which was in Ndola on 18 September 1961 of the Douglas involving “unarmed civilian airplanes any- the Persian Gulf along with warships from DC-6B carrying then UN Secretary-General where in the world”.