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Case – Tdf Diagnostic Hypotheses 2013 ____________________ ____________________ ____________________ ____________________ ____________________ ____________________ ____________________ ____________________ ____________________ ____________________ ____________________ ____________________ Froome's performances since the Vuelta 11 are so good that he should be considered a Grand Tour champion. Grand Tour champions who didn't benefit from game-changing drugs (GTC) usually display a high potential as junior athletes. Supporting evidence: Coppi first won the Giro at 20 Anquetil first won the Grand Prix des Nations at 19 Merckx won the world's road at 19 Hinault won the Giro and Tour at 24 LeMond showed amazing talent at just 15 Fignon led the Giro and won the Critèrium national at 22 No display of early talent H: Froome rode the 2013 TdF 'clean' ~H: Froome didn't ride the 2013 TdF 'clean' Reason: Because p(D|H) = Objection: But that's because he grew up in Evaluation Froome didn't display a high Froome's first major wins a country with no cycling activity per say and p(D|~H) = potential as a junior athlete. were at age 26, which is he took up road racing late. quite late in cycling. Cognitive dissonance (additional condition): Being clean, Froome performs at a Grand Tour champion level despite not having shown great potential as a junior athlete. Requirement: it is possible to be a clean Grand Tour champion without showing high potential as a junior athlete. Armstrong's performance in the TdF: DNF, DNF, 36, DNF, DNS [cancer], DNS [cancer], 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 23 Sudden metamorphoses from 'middle of the pack' to 'champion' are Team Sky's director Brailsford: "We also look at the history of the guy, his usually seen in dopers. progression over a number of years. All the best bike riders, the clean ones, you see steady progression; you can graph it. The ones whose performance of up in a spike usually test positive. There are no secrets. It's basic stuff; intelligence gathering." (quoted in Moore's Sky's Limit) But… the races he entered in Europe Rebuttal: However, before 2010 he didn't before 2010 didn't suit him, for the have bilharzia and still showed less promise most part. Froome's career than comparable GC contenders. In his first years as a pro (2007-2011), his performance placed him as a But his lack of development in 2010 and 2011 (before Source: Libertine Seguros (post #165 in Source needed–see post #5 in link attached 'middle of the pack', but at the Vuelta 2011 he metamorphosed into one of the Vuelta) is because he suffered from Bilharzia. discussion thread, as of 8/12/13) the best riders in the pro peloton. Brailsford: "He showed some fantastic numbers in Rebuttal: However, some claim that "Froome was 83rd at his grand tour debut at the 2008 Vuelta a España, 34th training and the question for us was why did he not Bilharzia was never brought up in relation at the 2009 Giro, and was disqualified from the 2010 Giro... perform like he did in the Vuelta before. But he got this to Froome until he started winning at the That’s in sharp contrast to Froome’s breakout ride during the 2011 Vuelta, disease and once he got on top of that his Vuelta '11, suggesting that it could have when he lost the race by just 19 seconds to Juanjo Cobo." performances improved," been made up by the team to explain his sudden transformation. Frankchickens (post #164 in discussion Performance thread, as of 8/12/13): metamorphosis Libertine Seguros (post #159 in discussion thread, as of 8/12/13): "81st (after Cognitive dissonance (additional Froome suddenly meta- DQs) is still not all that good considering people were touting his condition): Although clean, morphosed from 'middle performances in that race as evidence why his transformation at last year's Froome has experienced a of the pack' to 'champion'. Vuelta was to be expected. The much-vaunted Alpe d'Huez stage? He fell out discontinuity in his performance of the heads of state group at round about the same time as Johan van that is characteristic of dopers. Summeren. Requirement: it is possible to be a clean Grand Tour champion For reference, here are a few other riders of similar ages and their first metamorphosing suddenly from performances in GTs. 'middle of the pack'. Richie Porte: 7th, 2010 Giro d'Italia (I'm aware of the circumstances) Vincenzo Nibali: 19th, 2007 Giro d'Italia Pierre Rolland: 21st, 2009 Tour de France Roman Kreuziger: 21st, 2007 Vuelta a España Janez Brajkovic: 30th, 2006 Vuelta a España Rigoberto Urán: 55th, 2009 Tour de France Jürgen van den Broeck: 74th, 2007 Giro d'Italia (he was 7th in 2008 though). Most of these guys have shown a pretty steady upward curve (or in Kreuziger's case something of a plateau). Froome went from being noticeably worse to noticeably better in one fell swoop." [Placeholder] Timing of metamorphosis [Placeholder] developing as a TT and climber while losing weight Being at the top of the sport for months—including winning a Grand Tour— hasn't been achieved by a clean rider in recent years. Source needed He has been performing at the top of the sport Results for several consecutive months. Froome's 2013 results: "Tour of Oman; stage five Tour of Oman; overall Tour of Oman; points classification Because the field is clean(er) In top shape for Froome has been at the Tirreno-Adriatico; stage four now, so it is possible for a months top of the sport for Criterium International; stage three talented rider to beat his rivals months—including Criterium International; overall consistently. winning a Grand Tour. Tour de Romandie; prologue ITT Requirement: it is possible for a clean Tour de Romandie; overall Source needed rider to be at the top of sport for Criterium du Dauphine; stage five several months at a time. Criterium du Dauphine; overall Tour de France; stage eight Tour de France; stage 15 Tour de France; stage 17 (ITT) Tour de France; overall" Since the introduction of EPO, the winners of the Tour that were 'head and shoulders' above their rivals have all been convicted (or confessed of) doping. Supporting evidence needed The rider Because, in the 2013 Tour: Overall, he finished clear of second by 4min20 Winning 'head and At Ax 3 Domaines, he put 1min25 between him and Valverde and 1m51 with Contador shoulders' above of his rivals Froome was 'head an On the Ventoux, "Froome made Contador look like an espoir." (He took 1m40 over shoulders' above his Contador in that stage.) rivals in the 2013 TdF. "In the three decisive moments of this Tour — two mountaintop finishes and one Requirement: it is possible for a individual time trial — he’s been in a league of his own." clean rider to win the Tour 'head "he is cutting through this peloton like a hot knife through butter." and shoulders' above his rivals. "you have to admit that Chris was just much stronger than anyone else in the race." (Philippe Mauduit) Since the introduction of EPO, the winners of the Tour that have been amongst the best at both climbing and TTing were dopers. Froome's 2013 season Supporting evidence needed Being good at climbing and TTing In 2013, Froome was among the best at both Evidence needed climbing and TTing. Requirement: It is possible for a clean rider to be among the best in the pro peloton at both climbing and TTing. No clean rider has been able to challenge the fastest ascents of dopers. Supporting evidence needed Dominating at the Tour He has the second fastest ascent of Mont Ventoux (last 15.65 km [from St. But… A. Coggan: You can't use Esteve], 8.74 %, 1368 m) performance alone as an indicator of doping because we don't know -1. Lance Armstrong ______ USA | 48:33 | 2002 the limit of (clean) human -2. Chris Froome _________ GBR | 48:35 | 2013 physiology. -3. Andy Schleck _________ LUX | 48.57 | 2009 -4. Alberto Contador _____ ESP | 48:57 | 2009 Source needed -5. Lance Armstrong ______ USA | 49:00 | 2009 However, once above the tree -6. Marco Pantani ________ ITA | 49:01 | 2000 line—where it matters most—he -7. Lance Armstrong ______ USA | 49:01 | 2000 But, on the Ventoux, he benefited didn't benefit from a consistent -8. Frank Schleck ________ LUX | 49:02 | 2009 from favorable winds. favorable winds. -9. Nairo Quintana _______ COL | 49:04 | 2013 10. Roman Kreuziger ______ CZE | 49:05 | 2009 Source needed However, if he benefited from favorable winds, why others in the Source needed race today weren't closer to him? Climbing as fast as dopers Some of Froome's ascents were among the fastest He has the third fastest ascent at Ax 3 Domaines ascents of dopers. Requirement: It is possible for a "Aside for Froome's time, every single performance in the clean rider to ascend as fast as the top 10 has come from a rider during cycling's known doping fastest ascents of dopers. era." 1. Laiseka 22:57, 2001 2. Armstrong 22:59, 2001 But, at Ax 3 Domaines, the ascent was the first 3. Froome 23:14, 2013 mountain stage of the Tour, so his speed is 4. Ulrich 23:17, 2003 explained by his freshness. 5. Zubeldia 23:19, 2003 6. Ulrich 23:22, 2001 7. Armstrong 23:24, 2003 8. Vinokourov 23:34, 2003 9. Basso 23:36, 2003 10. Armstrong 23:40, 2005 22. Porte 24:05, 2013 34. Valverde 24:22, 2013 Being a clean top rider requires having strong ethical values.
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