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The Glacial World According to Wally

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The Glacial World According to Wally THE GLACIAL WORLD ACCORDING TO WALLY W.S. BROECKER ELDIGO PRESS 2002 THE GLACIAL WORLD ACCORDING TO WALLY W.S. BROECKER LAMONT-DOHERTY EARTH OBSERVATORY OF COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY Palisades, NY 10964 September 1992 Second Revised Edition June 1995 Third Revised Edition August 2002 FOREWORD In 1990 I started a book on glacial climates. I planned four sections, one on indicators, one on clocks, one on records and finally, one on the physics of the system. After completing the first three of these, I got stuck in my attempt to come up with a conceptual view of what might be driving these changes. However, having taught a course on climate change for many years, I know that much of the information one needs is not available in textbook form. Instead, we all depend heavily on reprints. As this proves to be an inefficient route for students interested in learning the basics of our field, I have tried to capture many of these basics in the first three sections of my would-be book. As I realized that it would be several years before I completed this project, I thought it might be useful to the community if I were to make available the three largely completed sections. This was done in 1992. In preparation for use in a short course to be taught at the Geological Society of America in November 2002, I undertook an effort to update the first three sections and the references during the early part of 2002. I encourage purchasers of the book to make as many copies as they wish for use by students and colleagues. The spiral binding is easily removed so as to facilitate duplication. Library-bound copies are also available. DEDICATION To Gary Comer A newfound friend and patron of young abrupt-change researchers. ................................................................ This book is available at a cost of $50 for the spiral-bound version or $70 for the hard-bound version (shipping included) Pre-payment is preferred. Checks in US$ should be made out to Trustees of Columbia University. To purchase contact Patty Catanzaro Eldigio Press Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University Palisades, NY 10964 USA Tel.: (845) 365-8515; Fax: (845) 365-8155; e-mail: [email protected] Copyright 1993 TABLE OF CONTENTS PROLOGUE INDICATORS INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................... 1 ICE VOLUME............................................................................................ 1 Glacial Moraines............................................................................. 2 Shorelines........................................................................................ 4 Oxygen Isotopes.............................................................................. 13 Summary......................................................................................... 21 TEMPERATURE ....................................................................................... 21 Mountaintop Temperatures............................................................. 23 Polar Temperatures ......................................................................... 25 Sea Surface Temperatures............................................................... 31 Continental Temperatures............................................................... 45 The Tropical Temperature Dilemma .............................................. 55 ARIDITY .................................................................................................... 56 Precipitation.................................................................................... 58 Rock Varnish.................................................................................. 61 Dust................................................................................................. 63 ATMOSPHERIC GAS COMPOSITION................................................... 67 Carbon Dioxide............................................................................... 67 Methane........................................................................................... 75 Isotopic Composition of Atmospheric Gases ................................. 77 OCEANIC CHEMISTRY........................................................................... 83 Trace Metals.................................................................................... 83 Carbon Isotopes.............................................................................. 96 RATE OF DEEP SEA VENTILATION..................................................... 105 CO3 Concentration ......................................................................... 109 Paleo pH.......................................................................................... 119 CLOCKS INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................... 1 THE RADIOCARBON CLOCK................................................................ 1 ANNUAL CLOCKS................................................................................... 5 THE URANIUM-THORIUM CLOCK ...................................................... 15 CLOCKS READING MORE THAN 50,000 YEARS.............................. 29 THE POTASSIUM-ARGON CLOCK....................................................... 35 TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) IN SITU PRODUCTION CLOCKS........................................................... 39 PLANETARY CLOCKS............................................................................ 40 SUNDIALS................................................................................................. 41 RECORDS 55 MILLION YEARS OF POLAR COOLING ......................................... 1 MILANKOVITCH CYCLES..................................................................... 12 THE RECORD IN ANTARCTIC ICE....................................................... 24 THE LAST 160,000 YEARS...................................................................... 26 THE LAST TERMINATION..................................................................... 37 DANSGAARD-OESCHGER EVENTS..................................................... 63 HEINRICH EVENTS................................................................................. 69 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DANSGAARD-OESCHGER EVENTS AND HEINRICH EVENTS ........................................................... 79 MECHANISMS INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................... 1 FORCINGS................................................................................................. 1 INSOLATION SEASONALITY CYCLES............................................... 1 THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION REORGANIZATIONS.................. 2 FLUCTUATIONS IN SOLAR ENERGY OUTPUT................................. 3 THE BIPOLAR SEESAW.......................................................................... 6 AMPLIFIERS ............................................................................................. 6 WATER VAPOR........................................................................................ 8 CLOUD COVER........................................................................................ 9 TERMINATIONS....................................................................................... 9 SUMMARY................................................................................................ 10 FOSSIL FUEL CO2 .................................................................................... 11 BIBLIOGRAPHY PROLOGUE In the debate regarding the possible consequences of the ongoing buildup of greenhouse gases, the climate record for the past hundred-thousand years sends us an important message. Contrary to the view held by those who downplay the consequences of fossil fuel burning, the paleorecord clearly demonstrates that the Earth’s climate system is far from self stabilizing. Rather, it has undergone large responses to seemingly small forcings. Not only have major changes occurred, but some of the largest have taken place on the time scale of a few decades. Further, the magnitude of these shifts is far greater than expected from any known forcing (i.e., fluctuations in solar output, variable interception of sunlight by dust and aerosols, changes in seasonality resulting from variations in the Earth’s orbital parameters...). Thus I am driven to the conclusion that the Earth’s climate system has several distinct modes of operation. To date, no Earth system model has been able to adequately account for the growth and maintenance of large ice sheets which occupied most of Canada and Scandinavia during peak glacial time. Nor has any model been able to adequately account for the atmosphere’s low CO2 content and high dust content during these times. Nor has any model been able to reproduce the rectangular character of past climate changes. We do, however, have one valuable clue in this regard. Models clearly demonstrate that the ocean’s thermohaline circulation has a number of quasi-stable modes of operation. Further, these models show how the ocean might be triggered to jump from one of these modes to another. But to date, no clear explanation has been given as to how these changes in ocean operation translate into the globe-encompassing atmospheric changes recorded in the paleoclimate record. The paleoclimatic record challenges us by demonstrating that much more must be learned about the Earth’s climate system before we can have any confidence in model- based predictions of the changes which will result from the buildup
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