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Enhanced Freight and Logistics Analysis Report

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Enhanced Freight and Logistics Analysis Report Enhanced Freight and Logistics Analysis Report STRATEGIC TRANSPORT JANUARY 2018 PLAN EVIDENCE BASE This report has been commissioned by Transport for the North to inform development of its Strategic Transport Plan. Proposals and recommendations in the report are those of Arup. Publication of the report does not imply TfN endorsement of any material in the report. Transport for the North Enhanced Freight and Logistics Analysis Report Contents Page Executive Summary 1 1 Introduction 9 1.1 Structure of the Report 9 2 Context 10 2.1 Aims and Objectives 10 2.2 Strategic Transport Plan (STP) 10 2.3 Previous Freight Report 12 2.4 STP Evidence Base 12 2.5 Scope of Work 13 2.6 The North’s Transport Network 13 2.7 Key Freight Operators 20 3 Methodology 22 3.1 Introduction 22 3.2 The Great Britain Freight Model (GBFM) 22 3.3 Methodology 22 3.4 Representation of the Data 23 4 The Case for Investment 26 4.1 Growth Forecast 26 4.2 Road Freight 29 4.3 Rail Freight 52 4.4 Waterborne Freight 83 4.5 Air Freight 92 4.6 Key Freight Flows 94 4.7 Drivers for Change 108 4.8 Summary 117 5 The North’s Freight and Logistics Vision 122 5.1 Introduction 122 5.2 The Vision 122 5.3 The Future of Freight 123 5.4 Maximise the use of existing assets 128 5.5 Delivering effective investment through the correct modal mix 135 5.6 Providing Skills, and utilising data to plan for the future 156 6 Recommended Next Steps 158 6.1 Introduction 158 Transport for the North Enhanced Freight and Logistics Analysis Report 6.2 Freight and Logistics Action Plan 158 Appendices Appendix A Freight Movements by Commodity Appendix B Freight Movements by Port Group Appendix C Key Flows Transport for the North Enhanced Freight and Logistics Analysis Report Executive Summary Transport for the North Summary Transport for the North (TfN) is progressing to become England’s first Sub- National Transport Body. There is a partnership of Transport Authorities, Delivery Partners and Local Enterprise Partnerships all working together to agree a Strategic Transport Plan for the North of England. The plan will cover passengers on road and rail, freight on road and rail, inland waterways, coastal shipping, ports and airports for passengers and freight. A truly multimodal approach. To enable the plan to be delivered, TfN needed to understand the needs of the freight and logistics industry and the infrastructure required for it to grow. Concisely put – why would TfN need to invest in the networks for the freight and logistics industry? This Report This report provides the baseline for understanding the North’s markets and travel patterns for road, rail, air, coastal shipping and inland waterway for freight. The data is mapped with no assumptions of schemes being delivered in the future, the growth is simply overlaid on the current network. The need for investment in the infrastructure to accommodate growth in the freight industry can be seen. The maps show clear growth in tonnages for freight movements. This is based on the analysis from the Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review completed by TfN in June 2016 which showed significant economic growth is possible in the North if the transport systems are right. Therefore, there is tangible evidence that the freight and logistics industry need the investment in infrastructure just as much as passengers do. When the networks break down, the freight industry pauses in just the same way as the passenger network. The growth that has been applied to the network has implications for sustainability and air quality. TfN are working on corridor studies across the North to understand the programmes of investment required to make the networks more efficient within the study areas. The first three studies are Connecting the Energy Coasts, Central Pennines and West and Wales. The work completed within this report will feed directly into the studies and will be made available to the consultancy teams. Finally, the content of the report has been presented to TfN and written by a team at Arup. TfN and its partners will decide which recommendations to take forward in the coming months and which to include in the corridor studies currently underway. Page 1 Transport for the North Enhanced Freight and Logistics Analysis Report Aims and Objectives The Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review (NPIER) was published in June 2016 and set out that by 2050, a transformed economy in the North would feature the following: • Gross Value Added (GVA) projected to be 15% (£100 billion) higher than business as usual projections; • Productivity would be 4% higher; and • 850,000 additional jobs would be created. Transport for the North, seeking to become the Government’s statutory body tasked with improving transport in the North of England, are therefore integral to achieving the outcomes of NPIER. Freight and Logistics as a key enabling capability to achieving transformational economic growth is a prime focus and therefore there is an important requirement to set out how investment should be made in the transport network to ensure it meets the demands that will be placed upon it by passengers and freight. Strategic Transport Plan (STP) TfN are developing a Strategic Transport Plan (STP) alongside a long term investment programme to support the people and businesses across the North and to create a stronger, more diverse and resilient place for people to live, commute and conduct business. TfN has published a variety of other reports which make up the evidence base for the STP. For each of these reports, an element of this enhanced freight and logistics analysis has been used although since these reports were published, the freight analysis has been further developed and enhanced, the outcome of this work is contained within this report. In addition to the freight and logistics reports (this report and the initial freight study), the STP evidence base is also made up of: • Major Roads Report; • Integrated Rail Report; • Independent International Connectivity Report; and • Economic Appraisal. This evidence base will be used within the Strategic Development Corridor studies which will be undertaken by TfN to produce a prioritised programme of investment. Page 2 Transport for the North Enhanced Freight and Logistics Analysis Report The North’s Transport Network The North boasts a wealth of freight assets that grant the North a strong multimodal freight capability. These include: • Eleven major ports in addition to other smaller ports located on the Tyne, Tees, Humber and Mersey as well as in Lancashire, Cumbria and Northumberland; • Seven international airports including Liverpool John Lennon, Leeds- Bradford, Doncaster-Sheffield, Humberside, Durham Tees Valley and Newcastle in addition to the major international airport at Manchester; • Three Strategic Rail Freight Interchanges (SRFIs – distribution centres with intermodal terminals) at Ditton, Wakefield and Selby with more emerging; • Five further Intermodal Terminals at Trafford Park, Leeds, Garston, Doncaster and Widnes; • A Strategic Road Network focused on the M62/M60/M56 and A66/69 East-West corridors and the M6 and M1/A1 North-South corridors; • A strategic rail network principally comprising of the West Coast Main Line, East Coast Main Line and Midland Main Lines that connect the North of England to the South and the Transpennine routes; and • A significant amount of distribution centre capacity. Despite these assets being available, many are not being fully utilised due to a number of reasons such as lack of joined up infrastructure or attractive alternative logistics solutions. Gaps in connectivity prevail that urgently require investment; 80% of road freight in the North is domestic traffic, most of which is short haul (making it difficult to justify the use of rail on commercial or efficiency grounds), which places a heavy burden on the strategic road network. Mode Share and Growth Forecasts Through use of the Great Britain Freight Model (GBFM) which has been adapted to include NPIER growth forecasts for 2050, it is possible to identify the current and future mode share of freight being moved in the North and to identify the growth predicted. The metrics used for this include tonnes lifted (the overall tonnage of freight moved) and tonne km (the total freight moved multiplied by the distance it is moved). The mode share of freight moved in the North and based on tonnes lifted is: • Road 91.0% (2016), 91.0% (2050) • Rail 7.0% (2016), 7.3% (2050) • Waterway 2.0% (2016), 1.7% (2050) Page 3 Transport for the North Enhanced Freight and Logistics Analysis Report However, by using the tonne kms metric, the mode share is as follows: • Road 87.2% (2016), 88.0% (2050) • Rail 12.1% (2016), 11.6% (2050) • Waterway 0.6% (2016), 0.4% (2050) As freight is generally moved over longer distances by rail it is more accurately reflected using the tonne km metric. Rail mode share is shown to decrease slightly between 2016 and 2050 which reflects longer haulage distances by road, generally driven by the growth in e-commerce and increased consumer spending which require more and larger National Distribution Centres (NDCs) and Regional Distribution Centres (RDCs), often only connected by road. This trunking of goods between NDCs and RDCs drives up the distances that road freight vehicles travel. The growth of the various modes for the movement of freight is also reflected in the GBFM outputs and suggests that based on tonnes lifted, there will be a 33.1% increase in goods moved between 2016 and 2050. This is broken down as follows: • Road 33.1% • Rail 39.0% • Waterway 11.6% Using tonne km as a metric, the growth is more substantial reflecting freight moving over longer distances.
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