Russia Security Update: November 18 - 25, 2015
1) Crimea. 5-28 SEP: Russia recently deployed marines from the elite 810th Naval Infantry Brigade based in Sevastopol, Crimea to Syria. ISW partner AllSource Analysis identi edIceland an Alligator LST in the midst of loading operations in Sevastopol, possibly the Saratov, which passed through the Bosporus on its way to Syria on September 28. An "anti-terror group" of Russian naval infantrymen is being deployed Tartus, Syria at the Finland beginning of October aboard a Russian repair ship. Norway 9) Eastern Mediterranean. 03 SEP: Russia’s 2) Krasnodar Kray. 09-24 SEP: At least 6 Russian cargo Novocherkassk and Korolev LSTs passed through the ships departed the southwestern Russian port city of Sweden Bosporus into the Mediterranean. Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Kray and docked at5 Tartus and Latakia, Syria. 22 SEP: Russia deployed four warships from the Black Sea Fleet to the eastern Mediterranean to carry “military 28 SEP: Russian troops from the Special Forces (spetsnaz) drills,” including the Smetlivy destroyer, the Pytlivy and brigade of the Southern Military District carried out an Baltic Sea Russia Ladny frigates, and the Moskva cruiser. exercise in Krasnodar Kray including airborne assault drills and hostage rescue from militants. 24 SEP: Russia’s MoD announced that the Russian navy Belarus would carry out drills in the eastern Mediterranean from 3) North Caucasus. 28: SEP: Russia launched CT UK 30 SEP to 07 OCT. Russia contacted international operations in ve districts of southern Dagestan, where Poland 3aviation authorities in early September to warn against ISIS’s Wilayat Qawqaz has claimed to have militants. Germany aircraft travelling between Cyprus and Tartus, Syria. 4) South Caucasus. 30 SEP – 4 OCT: Exercise 28 SEP: Russia’s Nikolay Filchenkov LST passed “Indestructible Brotherhood” of the Russian-led Collective Ukraine through the Bosporus into the Mediterranean along Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will take place at the 4 with Anchor handling tug supply vessel KIL-158, used “Bagramyan” ring eld in Armavir Oblast, Armenia to 7 to fortify ports. Kazakhstan train “neutralizing illegal armed formations.” A unit from the 15th motor-ri e brigade of Russia’s “Peacekeeping France Hungary 10) Syria. 21 SEP: 1,700 Russian specialists were Forces” was deployed to the exercise. Romania 7 reported to be at the Russian naval facility in Tartus. Italy 5) Iraq. 27 SEP: Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov 21-22 SEP: Russia deployed 6 x Su-34, 12 x SU-25 and acknowledged the creation of an anti-ISIS joint military 11 12 x Su-24 attack aircraft to a growing air base at coordination center in Baghdad. Black Sea Caspian13 Sea al-Assad international airport IVO Latakia, Syria, Bulgaria joining 4 x Su-30 andUzbekistan dozens of attack and transport 6) Belarus. 19 SEP: President Putin issued a decree calling Georgia helicopters already stationed there along with a battalion on the Russian defense and foreign ministries to reach an of marines from the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade. agreement with Belarus on the establishment of a Russian Azerbaijan Armored personnel carriers, main battle tanks, and airbase on Belarusian soil. Spain artillery were also reported on site. Turkey Turkmenistan 7) Egypt. 16 SEP: Russia and Egypt agreed to hold joint 30 SEP-01 OCT: Russian airstrikes commenced in counterterrorism exercises in Egypt in October and Homs, Hama, Idlib, and Latakia provinces against November of this year aimed at increasing Egyptian ability Syrian rebel and Jabhat al-Nusra positions that included to ght terrorism internally. 1 Western-backed former Free Syrian Army brigades. Mediterranean Sea 12 8) Central Asia. 15 SEP: President Putin called on the 2 11) Ukrainian border. 9-23 SEP: Russia were reported international community to join together in the ght Syria 9 to be developing two new bases along its border with 8 against ISIS at a meeting of the Collective Security Treaty government-held northeastern Ukraine. e planned 10 Iraq Organization (CTSO) in Tajikistan. CSTO members Iranbases in Soloti, Belgorod Oblast andAfghanistan Boguchar, signed a cooperation agreement for the transport of armed Voronezh Oblast will reportedly have the capacity to formations and military equipment. house 8,500 soldiers, armored vehicles, and heavy Morocco 15 weapons. Jordan Algeria Air Route 12) Central Military District. 14 SEP: Russia launched 6 its week-long “Center 2015” military exercise to train Sea Route Content: Hugo Spaulding Air Route Graphics: Evan Sterling Persian Gulf“blocking and destroying illegal armed formations, ” Libya Egypt Base Map Copyright @ Free Vector Maps.com including 95,000 Russian troops, 170C aircraft,ruise 20M issilenaval Path Saudi Arabia ships, as well as troops from Kazakhstan. 14 Hugo Spaulding, Daniel Pitcairn, and Daniel Urchick Base Map Copyright @ Free Vector Maps.com Russia mobilized and transported forces and equipment to Syria under the guise of military exercises. e link between Russia’s arrival at the naval base at Turkey sharply escalated Russian-NATOTartus relations and its onmilitary November exercises 24 in bythe downing Eastern Mediterranean a Russian Su-24 are clear, bomber and the near proximity the Turkish-Syrian in time of Russia’s border. deployment Turkey into reported Syria and that its theCenter Russian 2015 bomber had violated Turkish airspace and ignored exerciserepeated indicates warnings that beforethese military Turkish exercises F-16s servedshot the as preludesaircraft or down. covers Syrian for deployments. rebels killed Russia one is Russian exing its pilot, military and power a subsequent and basing search-and-rescuein more than one mission in northern Syria resulted in the deathlocation. of a Russian On September marine 8,and Prime the Ministerdestruction Dmitry of aMedvedev Russian saidhelicopter. Moscow Russia was prepared is likely to toestablish take escalatory airbases in measuresthe former toSoviet project countries force making against up NATO’s the south- ern flank in response to Turkey’s actions.Russia-led Russia Collective has already Security announced Treaty Organization the deployment (CSTO) of its alliance. most Onadvanced September S-400 19, Presidentair defense Vladimir system Putin to the signed Russian a decree airbase calling in for Latakia Russia’s and foreign the resump- tion of fighter jet escorts of its bombers,and a defense practice ministries reportedly to conduct halted negotiations in the wake with of anMinsk October to establish 20 memorandum a Russian air base of understandingin Belarus. Two new with ground the U.S. force Russia bases arealso in announced development that near its flagship Russia’s border with government-controlled northeastern Ukraine, suggesting that Russia will maintain its aggressive military posture toward Ukraine in the missile cruiser near the Syrian coast wouldcoming “destroy” years. Russia’s any aircraftactivities threatening in Syria appear posing to be parta threat of a largerto its strategywarplanes. aimed The at bolstering first downing its security, of a Russianpolitical andplane economic by a NATO interests member from the since eastern the Korean War represents a direct challenge to theMediterranean great power toimage Central President Asia. Putin seeks to cultivate and is likely to accelerate Russia’s intervention in the region.
The expansion of Russian military activity in the region underscores Russia’s primary grand strategic objective, to assert itself as a great power rival to the U.S. and a direct rival to NATO. Russia’s escalation, which increased sharply after the ISIS attacks in Paris on November 13, accelerated further with the transit of long-range strategic bombers around Western Europe’s coast and the launch of cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea on November 20. This escalation signaled Russia’s intent to challenge Western states while it claims to conduct counter-terrorism operations. The U.K. scrambled jets as Russian long-range bombers passed near its airspace and has reportedly been conducting joint search operations with Canada and France for a Russian submarine, though it is unclear that the submarine is destined for Syria. Russian long-range bombers and cruise missiles from the Caspian disrupted air traffic in Iraq, including U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition flights out of Iraqi Kurdistan. Russia also disrupted air traffic into and out of Lebanon over the Mediterranean.
As Russia projects aggression against its opponents, it continues to pursue deeper ties with its new regional partners, namely Iran and Egypt. Russia loosened a ban on the export of nuclear equipment and technology to Iran and signed an agreement to help build Egypt’s first nuclear power plant. Russian President Vladimir Putin travelled to Iran for the first time since 2007 to meet with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who called for “closer interaction” with Russia to counter the U.S. in the Middle East. Russian Defense Minis- ter Sergey Shoygu later met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Cairo, where he said Russia was ready to “closely cooperate” against ISIS’s affiliate in the Sinai Peninsula. Russia’s efforts to expand its partnerships with Iran and Egypt are a key component of its intervention in the Middle East which aims to project Russian military power at the expense of U.S. influence in the region. Russia views France as both a potential partner and rival to its military intervention. France confirmed that its newly deployed Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier began deconflicting operations with Russian naval assets near the Syrian coast. Russia seeks to draw France and some U.S. regional partners into its proposed alternative counter- terrorism alliance without sacrificing its freedom of action in Syria. French President Francois Hollande signaled that he would be unwilling to partner with Russia if Russia continues to strike non-terrorist targets on behalf of the Syrian regime ahead of his meeting with Vladimir Putin on November 26.
1 Turkey. 19 NOV: Turkish Foreign Minister Feridun Sinirlioğlu warned the Russian 5 UK. 19 NOV: The UK scrambled Typhoon fighter jets to intercept and escort two ambassador in Istanbul of “serious consequences” if Russian planes continued to Russian Tu-160 strategic bombers, likely on their way to launch strikes in Syria, as target Turkmen villages in northern Syria. they passed near British airspace.
24 NOV: Turkish F-16 jets downed a Russian Su-24 bomber near the Turkish-Syrian 22 NOV: The UK revealed it was searching for a Russian submarine detected off the border after it reportedly violated Turkish airspace and ignored repeated warnings by coast of Scotland for at least 10 days prior with the assistance of French and Canadian the Turkish Air Force. Rebel forces in Syria killed one of the pilots as he parachuted aircraft. from the aircraft while Russian and Syrian special forces reportedly rescued the second. 6 Egypt. 19 NOV: Russia and Egypt signed an agreement to build Egypt’s first ever nuclear power plant, the two countries’ largest joint project in 45 years. 24 NOV: Russian President Vladimir Putin described Turkey’s downing of the Su-24 as a “stab in the back” and pledged “serious consequences” for bilateral relations. 24 NOV: Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu said Russia was “prepared to close- ly cooperate” to combat ISIS’s affiliate in the Sinai Peninsula after a meeting with 24 NOV: Russia’s Ministry of Defense suspended military communications with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Cairo. Turkey. 7 Ukraine. 19-24 NOV: Russian-backed separatists continued to launch indirect and 24 NOV: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned Russian tourists against direct fire attacks against Ukrainian positions across the front line in the southeastern travelling to Turkey over security concerns and cancelled his own November 25 visit Donbas region, with heavy concentration around the separatist stronghold of Donetsk to meet the Turkish foreign minister in Istanbul. City.
2 Syria. 18-23 NOV: Russia’s MoD claimed Russian warplanes conducted strikes 22-23 NOV: Russia reportedly deployed Grad MLRS, tanks, and additional para- against targets in Aleppo, Damascus, Idlib, Latakia, Hama, Homs, ar-Raqqa, and troopers to the de-facto border between Crimea and Ukraine in response to the Deir ez-Zour provinces. destruction of electricity pylons in southern Ukraine, which left the Russian-occu- pied peninsula without power. 19-20 NOV: Russian long-range strategic bombers flew from northern Russia around the British Isles and through the Strait of Gibraltar before firing cruise mis- 8 China. 20 NOV: China became the first foreign government to purchase the siles at targets in Syria from a position over the Mediterranean Sea. advanced Russian Sukhoi Su-35, signing a $2 billion-dollar contract with Russia for 24 fighter jets. 20 NOV: Russian ships in the Caspian Sea fired 18 cruise missiles at targets in ar-Raqqa, Aleppo, and Idlib provinces, according to the Russian MoD. 9 Iran. 20 NOV: Iranian F-14 Tomcats were recorded escorting Russian Tu-95 strate- gic bombers through Iranian airspace before and after conducting airstrikes in Syria. 20 NOV: Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia’s military campaign in Syria is currently “not enough” and said that he hoped “subsequent phases” of the campaign 23 NOV: President Putin met with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would “bring the expected results.” during his first visit to Iran since 2007. The Kremlin released a statement saying that Russia and Iran will oppose “external attempts” at regime change in Syria. 24 NOV: Syrian rebels destroyed a Russian transport helicopter and killed a Russian marine in northern Latakia Province after anti-aircraft fire forced the helicopter to 23 NOV: President Putin issued a decree ending a ban on provisions of nuclear make an emergency landing. The helicopter was conducting a search-and-rescue equipment and technology to Iran and pledging to develop Iranian nuclear facilities. operation for the pilots of the Su-24 downed by Turkey. The remaining helicopter crew members were evacuated. 10 Lebanon. 21 NOV: Flights to and from Lebanon were delayed, cancelled and rerout- ed after Russia reportedly demanded Beirut redirect air traffic away from a Russian 24 NOV: The Russian MoD stated that Russian fighter jets would again escort all naval exercise in the eastern Mediterranean. Russian bombers conducting airstrikes in Syria following Turkey’s downing of a Russian warplane, a practice reportedly halted following an October 20 air safety 11 North Caucasus. 22 NOV: A Russian security operation killed 14 militants allegedly memorandum of understanding with the U.S. The Russian MoD asserted that the linked to ISIS in the North Caucasus region of Kabardino-Balkaria. Moskva guided missile cruiser off the coast of Latakia Province would "destroy" any targets posing "potential danger" to its forces in Syria. 12 Iraq. 23 NOV: Iraq suspended commercial flights to and from Erbil and Sulaymani- yah in Iraqi Kurdistan due to threat of Russian cruise missiles and long-range 25 NOV: Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu announced that Russia would bomber flights from the Caspian Sea directed toward Syria. The U.S.-led anti-ISIS deploy its advanced S-400 surface-to-air missile system to the Russian airbase in coalition also suspended reconnaissance and resupply flights from Erbil. Latakia Province. 13 Caspian Sea. 23 NOV: President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov 3 Central Military District. 18-19 NOV: The Russian military conducted its first told Russian President Vladimir Putin that Kazakhstan was “concerned” by Russia’s reported nighttime exercise of the mobile Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile use of airspace over the Caspian Sea to launch strikes against targets in Syria. system in Orenburg Oblast. 14 Red Sea. 23 NOV: The Russian destroyer Vice-Admiral Kulakov conducted a coun- 4 France. 19 NOV: Russian military chief of staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov held a phone terterrorism exercise in the Red Sea involving an anti-submarine helicopter. The call with his French counterpart to discuss cooperation between Russian naval assets destroyer took part in a counterterrorism exercise in the Mediterranean before pass- and the Charles De Gaulle aircraft carrier near Syria, according to the Russian MoD. ing through Suez Canal around November 20.
24 NOV: French President Francois Hollande confirmed that France had begun 15 Jordan. 24 NOV: President Putin said Russia and Jordan “should join forces” in the deconflicting with Russian naval assets since the Charles De Gaulle aircraft carrier “fight against international terrorism” in a meeting with Jordanian King Abdullah II arrived in the eastern Mediterranean on November 22. Hollande stated that he would in Sochi. ask Putin to target ISIS and other terrorist groups in Syria during his upcoming visit to Moscow.