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Roman Zastserinski: Hingega Asja Kallal LHV ajakiri Nr 10 | Suvi 2010 INTERVJUU: Olli Rehn: Euroopa vajab reforme AJALUGU: Eesti majanduse tõusuaastad NÕUANNE: kuidas saab pangast laenu? BÖRSIETTEVÕTE: Premia sirutab tiibu GURU: Donald Trumpi trumbid Roman Zastserinski: hingega asja kallal PENSIONIFONDID: KLIENTE TULEB JÄRJEST JUURDE 2 RUBRIIK INVESTEERI! / KEVAD 2010 Koht, kus raha kasvab. JUHTKIRI 3 Sisukord Analüüs 4 Euroopa majanduskriis tähendab heaoluühiskonna lõppu. Intervjuu 9 Olli Rehni sõnul vajab Euroopa reforme. Investori ABC 12 Aktsiate noteerimine börsil aitab investeerimiseks raha leida. Börsiettevõte 14 Premia Foods täitis eesmärgid. Nõuanne 18 Mida pidada silmas pangast laenu küsimisel? Uudis 20 Investeeritav väärpaberitulu muutub eraisikutele maksuvabaks. Persoon 22 Kokk roman Zaštšerinski paneb oma ärisse kogu hinge. Ülevaade 26 Keeruline majandusolukord seab portfellihaldusele väljakutseid. Ajalugu Investeerimine ei ole loterii 28 Iseseisva Eesti majanduse esimesed head aastad olid 1924–1929. uvalisel hetkel suvaliste aktsiate ostmine ei ole investeeri- Guru mine – see on loterii. Mõnusat närvikõdi võib see küll 32 Donald Trumpi elu trumpide keskel. pakkuda, loteriid mängides aga raha ei teeni. Selleks, et Pensionifondid investeerimise abil oma kapitalile korralik tootlus tagada, 39 Kliente tuleb hoogsalt juurde. Stuleb tunda ettevõtteid, millesse raha paigutatakse, ning riike ja turge, kus need ettevõtted tegutsevad. Tuleb tunda ettevõtete Uudised 41 Euro ja krooni intressimäärad ühtsed. juhtkondi ja konkurente. Tuleb mõista äri ja investeerimisega Käivitasime videouudised. seotud riske ning globaalseid majandusprotsesse. Tuleb teada tohutult palju ja arvestada lõputu hulga teguritega. Pikaajaliselt LHV toetab edukas investeerimine on täiskohaga töö. 44 Viljandi pärimusmuusika festival kutsub. Enamikul meist paraku nii palju vaba aega ei ole ning seega Raamatud jääbki edukaks investeerimiseks järele põhimõtteliselt kolm 49 LHV raamatukogus leidub ka eestikeelset võimalust: investeerida aktiivselt juhitud fondidesse, järgida fi nantskirjandust. analüütikute soovitusi või osta indeksfonde. Esimesel juhul on Ristsõna mahukas analüüsitöö fondijuhi ja tema meeskonna teha, teisel Lahenda ja võida seminaripääsmeid! juhul mõne panga analüüsimeeskonna pärusmaa. Indeksfonde 50 ostes võib endale kindlustada turu keskmise tootluse. Kuid sõl- tumata valitud variandist tuleb enne investeerimise alustamist üks küsimus enda jaoks selgeks mõelda. Kas investeeritakse raha teenimise või adrenaliini saamise eesmärgil? Ajakirja Investeeri! annab välja LHV www.lhv.ee, [email protected], tel 680 0400 Vastutav väljaandja: Andres Kask Tootja: Profimeedia OÜ www.profimeedia.ee, [email protected] Toimetaja: Tiit Efert, kujundaja: Martin Mileiko Trükk: Unipress, trükiarv: 38 000 Investeeri! on loetav ka Erki Kert portaalis www.netiajakiri.ee LHV Panga juhatuse liige Koht, kus raha kasvab. SUVI 2010 / INVESTEERI! 4 ANALÜÜS INVESTEERI! / SUVI 2010 Koht, kus raha kasvab. ANALÜÜS 5 Kriis Euroopas: mis saab edasi? Euroopas puhkenud finantsärevusel ning Ameerika Ühendriikidest 1929. aastal alguse saanud Suurel depressioonil on hirmuäratavaid sarnasusi. Kas Euroopa suudab uut suurt kriisi vältida? änaseks on kujunenud üldlevinud arva- tuks. Praegu, nagu oli ka tookord, võime olla museks, et maailm on suutnud Suure maailma majandussüsteemi suurte ja halvasti depressiooni kordumist vältida. Valitsu- mõistetavate muutuste vangid. sed ja neid nõustavad majandusteadla- Tsed said ränga majanduskriisiga võitlemise õp- Ahistav kullastandard petunni kätte juba 1930. aastatel ning ootamatult Ajaloolased peavad Suure depressiooni laiene- saabunud kriisile vastati seekord kiiresti. mise põhjuseks aina enam geopoliitilist murran- gut. Esimene maailmasõda raputas tollast glo- Kas halvim möödas? baalset majanduskorda. Eesotsas Suurbritannia- Kui 2008. aastal lõpu poole mõisteti alanud fi- ga elavdati kaubandust ja baseeruti kullastan- nantskriisi sügavust, siis vastukaja sellele oli dardil (kullastandard on süsteem, mille puhul Tekst: Robert Samuelson hoogne ja agressiivne. Keskpangad, nagu USA ringlev paberraha oli täielikult kaetud kullare- Föderaalreserv ja Euroopa Keskpank, langetasid servidega). Sõda tõi kaasa suured rahvusvaheli- Autorist: intressimäärasid ja pitsitasid pankureid. Amee- sed võlad, mille hulgas oli nii Saksamaa sõjahü- New Yorgis sündinud rika Ühendriigid ja paljud teised riigid kiitsid vitisi kui ka USA suuri võlgu Suurbritanniale ja Robert Samuelson on heaks stiimulipaketid, mis sisaldasid maksekär- Prantsusmaale. Oli võimatu taastada sõjaeelset kolumnistina töötanud peid ja riiklikke lisakulutusi. Paanika peatati. olukorda. Suurbritannia oli liiga nõrk, kulla 1969. aastast. Tema Allakäiguspiraal seoses erasektori kulude lange- hind ahistas majandust ja võlad olid liiga suu- majandus- ja poliitika- tamise ja töötuse kasvu peatamisega pöörati red. Aga riigid üritasid siiski, sest sõjaeelne aeg veerge on avaldatud nii uuesti tõusule. Finantskriisist tulenenud majan- oli olnud majanduslikult edukas ja rikkalik. See USA juhtivates välja- duslik kokkuvarisemine oli küll kohutav, kuid nurjumisele määratud püüe põhjustaski majan- annetes kui ka mujal see ei olnud järjekordne Suur depressioon. duskriisi. Alles majandusraskuste talumatuks maailmas. Alates 1996. Arvatakse, et halvim on möödas. muutumise järel loobuti ebarealistlikest ees- aastast töötab Samuel- Või kas on ikka möödas? Kreeka täbar olu- märkidest (näiteks sooviti säilitada kulla hinda, son Washington Posti kord seab selle optimistliku arusaama kahtluse nõuti võlgade tagasimaksmist). kolumnistina. Suure alla. Võib-olla rõõmustati enneaegu ja majan- Täna võib täheldada toonase olukorraga sar- depressiooni põhjusi on duskriis on jõudnud lihtsalt uude faasi, kus are- naseid kõhedaks tegevaid – kui mitte isegi jube- ta uurinud erilise põhja- nenud ühiskondades domineerivad valitsuste daid – paralleele. Heaoluriik on tänapäevane likkusega, analüüsides tohutud võlakoormad? Võrdlused Suure dep- vaste kullastandardile. Vananevate ühiskonda- seda teemat paljudes ressiooniga jäävad asjakohaseks ja teevad rahu- dega arenenud riigid on pakkunud kodanikele kirjutistes. Koht, kus raha kasvab. SUVI 2010 / INVESTEERI! 6 ANALÜÜS suuremaid soodustusi, kui nende maksubaasid seda võimaldada suudavad, ning see on toonud valitsustele suured võlad. Kreeka on selle poo- lest hirmutavaks „eeskujuks”. Kuid poliitikud on populaarsete toetuste vähendamise vastu, muutes meelt vaid tugeva surve all. Selleks ongi vaja kriisi – mõelgem taas Kreekale. Teine muret tekitav sarnasus on üleilmne majandus. USA liidripositsioon on alates Teisest maailmasõjast üha nõrgenenud ja seda just Hiina tõusu tõttu. Nagu tollalgi, on oht, et tekib võimuvaakum – selle tunnistuseks on Kreeka abistamise pikale veninud protsess. Mitte ükski riik ei tegutsenud otsusekindlalt, isegi siis mitte, kui turuolukord oli närviliseks muutunud. Loomulikult ei tähenda need sarnasused veel teist depressiooniperioodi, kuid selgitavad vähemalt praegust segadusse ajavat majandus- likku väljavaadet. Käib omamoodi köievedu. Äritsükli tavamehhanismid annavad kinnitust olukorra paranemisest, samas kui sügavamad majanduslikud valupunktid nõrgestavad seda. Valitses hirm 2008. aasta lõpus ja 2009. aasta alguses olid hirm ja hüsteeria peaaegu tuntavad, seda eelkõige USA-s. Tarbijad ja ettevõtted vähendasid oma kulutusi kõikjal, kus vähegi võimalik. Ajavahe- mikus september 2008 kuni juuni 2009 kaotas USA majandus 6 miljonit ametlikku töökohta. Aastal 2009 müüdi Ameerikas peaaegu 40% vähem autosid kui 2007. aastal. Valitsuse aktiivne sekkumine on usu siiski stabiliseerinud ning eraisikud ja firmad avavad nii USA-s kui ka mujal taas oma rahakotiraudu. Rahvusvaheline Valuutafond (IMF) on arvamusel, et maailma inimesed tänAvAl: Euroopa majandus tõuseb käesoleval ja järgmisel aastal riikide kärpeplaanid on tekitanud heaoluriikides peaaegu 4,3%, samas kui USA majandusele teravat protestivaimu. ennustatakse keskmiselt umbes 3% kasvu. suuri kahjumeid. Samuti kannatavad teised Ent sügavalt juurdunud probleemid jäävad investorid ja finantsinstitutsioonid ning finants- alles. Kolm neist paistavad enim silma: esiteks süsteem võib uuesti üles öelda. heaoluriigi koorem ja vananev rahvastik, teiseks suurte eralaenude koorem (kodu- ja tarbijalae- Kreeka pole ainulaadne nud nii Ameerikas kui ka mujal) ning kolman- Kreekaga seonduv problemaatika ei ole ainu- daks tohutu tasakaalutus üleilmses kaubandu- laadne, tema erilisus seisneb üksnes probleemi ses, kus mõned riigid (eriti Hiina) toodavad suuri sügavuses. Vaatame näitajaid: 2009. aastal oli ülejääke ja teised (eriti USA) kannatavad suurte Kreekaga Kreeka eelarvepuudujääk peaaegu 14% sisema- puuduste all. Igaüht ähvardab liiga äkiline taas- seonduv janduse kogutoodangust (oma majandusest). tumine, mis võib tõugata maailma tagasi pika- Võlg on kasvanud võrreldes sisemajanduse ko- ajalisemasse langusse. problemaati- gutoodanguga 115%ni. Samas oli Itaalia puudu- Et tulla toime suurte eelarvepuudujääkidega, ka ei ole jääk SKT-st 5% ja riigilaen 116%, Hispaania SKT vähendavad arengumaad kas kulutusi või tõsta- puudujääk 11% ja võlg 53% ning Saksamaa SKT vad makse. Need sammud aga aeglustavad taas- ainulaadne, puudujääk 3% ja võlg 73%. USA puudujääk – tumisprotsessi. Probleem on selles, et nende arvutatud mõneti erinevalt – oli SKT-st 9,9% meetmete läbikukkumisel võib olla sama efekt, tema erilisus ja võlg 53%. Kõik maailma kõige arenenumad mis tekitab finantskriisi. Kuhjuvaid võlgu kart- seisneb riigid, mis moodustavad umbes poole maailma vad laenuandjad
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