The Singularity and Human Destiny by Patrick Tucker, Assistant Editor, the FUTURIST

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The Singularity and Human Destiny by Patrick Tucker, Assistant Editor, THE FUTURIST

In 1949, several decades before the birth of the Thomas Moore’s Utopia and Christopher PC, computer scientist John von Neumann an- Marlow’s Doctor Faustus, but according to Ray nounced, “It would appear we have reached the Kurzweil it is our real and fast-approaching limits of what is possible to achieve with com- future. It will come about as the result of an ex- puter technology.” He quickly and prudently plosion in our technological abilities. We will in- added, “One should be careful with such state- corporate more computer-based processes into ments; they tend to sound pretty silly in five our biological functioning until we transcend years.” our crude, earthly bodies entirely and become More than half a century later, it is Neumann’s machine-based, virtually immortal. This coming caveat rather than his prediction that is borne out period of rapid technological progress and its daily. Our computer intelligence is growing at an miraculous effects will occur within the next 50 ever-quickening pace, surpassed only by our de- years and is what Kurzweil refers to as the pendence on computer technology. For many of Singularity. us, computers and computer-based devices have The concept is both startling and optimistic, become not so much tools as appendages, third but it immediately provokes certain philosophi- arms that are integral to our lives, cumbersome on cal concerns. If nanotechnology allows us to occasion, and increasingly willful. This begs the create any object, will any object ever again be obvious question: If computer power advances be- valuable? What role will responsibility, temper- yond our control, how will that change us? ance, and discipline play in a world where any In his most recent book, The Singularity Is Near, urge can be gratified at almost the same moment author and inventor Ray Kurzweil provides us it is felt? What will pass for morality when there with a clue. Imagine that with the help of a small is no mortal consequence to any action? device you could create a perfect replica of any ob- These questions cannot and should not be an- ject—Gianlorenzo Bernini’s David, the hub cap swered all at once—either by Ray Kurzweil, from a ’78 Dodge Dart—seemingly from vapor. his devotees, or his critics. Rather, what is im- Imagine that through virtual-reality software you portant is that they be asked, repeatedly and won’t be shackled to a particular position in time, earnestly, and by as many people as possible. and could exist in several locations at once—work, To further the debate of these key issues, THE home, a seaside bungalow in Bora Bora—and each FUTURIST presents Kurzweil’s insights and setting in which you chose to locate yourself ideas along with invited commentaries from looked, sounded, and felt perfectly real. Imagine nanotechnology expert J. Storrs Hall, accelera- that you could live indefinitely in a world in which tion studies scholar John Smart, and soci- all poverty, pollution, and scarcity has been van- ologists Damien Broderick and Richard quished. Imagine that there existed no limitation to Eckersely. Together, they examine this issue of what you could do or be, except for those limita- the Singularity to determine how near it is tions that you imposed yourself. exactly, and explore what it might mean for This scenario may sound like a cross between humanity.

Order the March-April 2006 issue of THE FUTURIST from https://www.wfs.org/futuristorder.htm. ©2006 World Future Society • 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, U.S.A. • All rights reserved. Reinventing Humanity: The Future of Machine–Human

Intelligence By Ray Kurzweil

Author and inventor Ray Kurzweil sees a radical evolution of the human species in the next 40 years.

We stand on the threshold of the most profound and transformative event in the history of humanity, the “Singularity.” What is the Singularity? From my perspective, the Singularity is a future period during which the pace of technological change will be so fast and far-reaching that human existence on this planet will be irreversibly altered. We will combine our brain power—the knowledge, skills, and personality quirks that make us human—with our computer power in order to think, reason, communicate, and create in ways we can scarcely even contemplate today. This merger of man and machine, coupled with the sudden explosion in machine intelligence and rapid innovation in gene research and nanotechnology, will result in a world where there is no distinction between the biological and the mechanical, or between physical and virtual reality. These technological revolutions will allow us to transcend our frail bodies with all their limitations. Illness, as we know it, will be eradi- cated. Through the use of nanotechnology, we will be able to manufacture almost any physical product upon demand, world hunger and poverty will be solved, and pollution will vanish. Human existence will undergo a quantum leap in evolution. We will be

THE FUTURIST March-April 2006 www.wfs.org 39 able to live as long as we choose. The progress rate), or progress on a level Following, I have laid out the prin- coming into being of such a world is, of about 1,000 times greater than cipal components underlying each of in essence, the Singularity. what was achieved in the twentieth these coming technological revolu- How is it possible that we could be century. tions. While each new wave of so close to this enormous change progress will solve the problems and not see it? The answer is the from earlier transformations, each How Will We Know the quickening nature of technological will also introduce new perils. Each, Singularity Is Upon Us? innovation. In thinking about the operating both separately and in future, few people take into consid- The first half of the twenty-first concert, underpins the Singularity. eration the fact that human scientific century will be characterized by progress is exponential: It expands three overlapping revolutions—in The Genetic Revolution by repeatedly multiplying by a con- genetics, nanotechnology, and robot- stant (10 times 10 times 10, and so ics. These will usher in the beginning Genetic and molecular science will on) rather than linear (10 plus 10 of this period of tremendous change extend biology and correct its obvi- plus 10, and so on). I emphasize the I refer to as the Singularity. We are in ous flaws (such as our vulnerability exponential-versus-linear perspec- the early stages of the genetics revo- to disease). By the year 2020, the full tive because it’s the most important lution today. By understanding the effects of the genetic revolution will failure that prognosticators make in information processes underlying be felt across society. We are rapidly considering future trends. life, we are learning to reprogram gaining the knowledge and the tools Our forebears expected what lay our biology to achieve the virtual to drastically extend the usability of ahead of them to resemble what they elimination of disease, dramatic ex- the “house” each of us calls his body had already experienced, with few pansion of human potential, and and brain. exceptions. Because they lived dur- radical life extension. However, Nanomedicine researcher Robert ing a time when the rate of techno- Hans Moravec of Carnegie Mellon Freitas estimates that eliminating logical innovation was so slow as to University’s Robotics Institute points 50% of medically preventable condi- be unnoticeable, their expectations of out that, no matter how successfully tions would extend human life ex- an unchanged future were continu- we fine-tune our DNA-based biol- pectancy to 150 years. If we were ally fulfilled. Today, we have wit- ogy, biology will never be able to able to prevent 99% of naturally oc- nessed the acceleration of the curve. match what we will be able to engi- curring medical problems, we’d live Therefore, we anticipate continuous neer once we fully understand life’s to be more than 1,000 years old. technological progress and the social principles of operation. In other We can see the beginnings of this repercussions that follow. We see the words, we will always be “second- awesome medical revolution today. future as being different from the class robots.” The field of genetic biotechnology is present. But the future will be far The nanotechnology revolution fueled by a growing arsenal of tools. more surprising than most people will enable us to redesign and re- Drug discovery was once a matter of realize, because few observers have build—molecule by molecule—our finding substrates (chemicals) that truly internalized the implications of bodies and brains and the world produced some beneficial result the fact that the rate of change is with which we interact, going far be- without excessive side effects, a itself accelerating. yond the limitations of biology. research method similar to early Exponential growth starts out But the most powerful impending humans’ seeking out rocks and other slowly and virtually unnoticeably, revolution is the robotic revolution. natural implements that could be but beyond the knee of the curve it By robotic, I am not referring ex- used for helpful purposes. Today, we turns explosive and profoundly clusively—or even primarily—to are discovering the precise biochemi- transformative. My models show humanoid-looking droids that take cal pathways that underlie both dis- that we are doubling the paradigm- up physical space, but rather to arti- ease and aging processes. We are shift rate for technology innovation ficial intelligence in all its variations. continued on page 42 every decade. In other words, the twentieth century was gradually PHOTOS.COM speeding up to today’s rate of In the future, more drugs will be progress; its achievements, therefore, designed to carry out precise were equivalent to about 20 years of missions at the molecular level. progress at the rate of 2000. We’ll make another “20 years” of progress in just 14 years (by 2014), and then do the same again in only seven years. To express this another way, we won’t experience 100 years of technological advance in the twenty- first century; we will witness on the order of 20,000 years of progress (again, when measured by today’s

40 THE FUTURIST March-April 2006 www.wfs.org Ray Kurzweil’s Plan for Cheating Death A cure for aging may be found in the next fifty years. The trick now is to live long enough to be there when it happens. Here’s how Kurzweil is trying to do it.

By Terry Grossman

I first met Ray Kurzweil in 1999 to learn that Ray was taking over 200 supple- at a Foresight Institute meeting in ment pills a day. Ray’s approach had been to ac- Palo Alto. I was there to get some curately assess his personal health risks and then background information on nano- quite simply to “reprogram his biochemistry.” technology for a new book I was Ongoing testing indicates that he is doing a re- writing. As I stood in the lunch markable job, as measurement of his biological line, a healthy-appearing man in age in my clinic indicates that he is now almost front of me was engaged in animated conversa- two decades younger than his chronological age, tion with a not nearly so healthy-looking second and all of his health risks appear under optimal man. Their topic of conversation was vitamins control. and nutritional supplementation, a topic of great Ray was already working on his new book, The interest to me, a nutritionally oriented M.D. Singularity Is Near, at that time, and I had just I joined the conversation, and the healthy- completed my first book, The Baby Boomers’ Guide looking man introduced himself as Ray to Living Forever. It was natural that our e-mail di- Kurzweil. Ray and I continued our dialogue via alogue moved into discussion of the prospects e-mail after the conference ended, and a few for truly radical life extension for people of all months later, he flew from his home in Boston to ages, including older boomers like ourselves. As Frontier Medical Institute, my longevity clinic in our e-mails multiplied into the many thousands, Denver, for a comprehensive longevity medical we decided to organize the information and see evaluation. We performed a comprehensive bat- if we had the makings of a new book that we tery of tests designed to uncover any health risks would co-author. I created a preliminary table of he might still have so that together we could op- contents, Ray organized the information from timize his already very sophisticated program our e-mails, and, another 10,000 e-mails or so for health and longevity. later, our joint book, Fantastic Voyage: Live Long From the beginning, it was obvious that Ray Enough to Live Forever, was written in the midst of would be a unique patient. I have many engi- Ray’s writing of The Singularity Is Near. neers as patients in my practice (and Ray is an Ray felt that he was writing these books to- engineer by training), so I am not surprised gether as a unit and that there was synergy when patients come to see me with a notebook between them. The Singularity Is Near details of spreadsheets detailing various data ex- Ray’s vision of the astounding possibilities of the tracted from their daily lives: blood pressure, world of the near future as the Singularity un- weight, cholesterol, blood sugar levels, amount folds sometime within the next few decades. In of exercise, etc., carefully tabulated for several Fantastic Voyage, we provide readers with the in- years. But all previous data collections I had formation they need to live long enough and seen, even those organized into Excel and remain healthy enough to fully experience the meticulously graphed, paled in comparison to wonders of life in the post-Singularity world. In Ray’s. His data collection was so thorough and writing these two books, Ray has painted a clear meticulous that he could tell me what he ate picture of the future and provided a blueprint for for lunch on June 23, 1989 (as well as what he how to get there. ate for lunch every other day for several years before that time). And not only what he ate, About the Author but the number of grams of each serving and Terry Grossman, M.D., is the founder and medical director calories consumed, as well as the number of of Frontier Medical Institute in Denver, Colorado. He is calories he burned that day through exercise— the co-author of Fantastic Voyage: The Science Behind every day for decades! Radical Life Extension with Ray Kurzweil. Telephone As a result, it came as less of a surprise for me 303-233-4247; Web site www.fmiclinic.com.

THE FUTURIST March-April 2006 www.wfs.org 41 J. STORRS HALL continued from page 40 DNA segments and can rapidly test able to design drugs to carry out pre- for specific DNA sequences in a cise missions at the molecular level. sample. Small nanoscale beads With recently developed gene tech- called quantum dots can be pro- nologies, we’re on the verge of being grammed with specific codes com- able to control how genes express bining multiple colors, similar to a themselves. Gene expression is the color bar code, that can facilitate process by which cellular compo- tracking of substances through the nents (specifically RNA and the ribo- A nanoscale, self-replicating robot or body. somes) produce proteins according utility foglet could join together with other In the future, nanoscale devices foglets to form a solid wall that would to a precise genetic blueprint. While will run hundreds of tests simultane- change in shape and appearance as de- every human cell contains a com- sired by the user. Foglet technology will ously on tiny samples of a given sub- plete DNA sample, and thus the full allow for full-immersion virtual-reality envi- stance. These devices will allow ex- complement of the body’s genes, a ronments by the 2030s. tensive tests to be conducted on specific cell, such as a skin cell or a nearly invisible samples of blood. pancreatic islet cell, gets its charac- In the area of treatment, a particu- teristics from only the fraction of ponential rate (over four per linear larly exciting application of this tech- genetic information relevant to that dimension per decade, or about 100 nology is the harnessing of nanopar- particular cell type. per 3-D volume.) At this rate, the ticles to deliver medication to Gene expression is controlled by key feature sizes for most electronic specific sites in the body. Nanopar- peptides (molecules made up of se- and many mechanical technologies ticles can guide drugs into cell walls quences of up to 100 amino acids) will be in the nanotechnology and through the blood-brain barrier. and short RNA strands. We are now range—generally considered to be Nanoscale packages can be designed beginning to learn how these less than 100 nanometers (one- to hold drugs, protect them through processes work. Many new therapies billionth of one meter)—by the the gastrointestinal tract, ferry them currently in development and testing 2020s. Electronics has already to specific locations, and then release are based on manipulating peptides dipped below this threshold, al- them in sophisticated ways that can either to turn off the expression of though not yet in three-dimensional be influenced and controlled, wire- disease-causing genes or to turn on structures and not yet in structures lessly, from outside the body. desirable genes that may otherwise that are capable of assembling other Nanotherapeutics in Alachua, not be expressed in a particular type similar structures, an essential step Florida, has developed a biodegrad- of cell. A new technique called RNA before nanotechnology can reach its able polymer only several nanome- interference is able to destroy the promised potential. Meanwhile, ters thick that uses this approach. messenger RNA expressing a gene rapid progress has been made re- Meanwhile, scientists at McGill Uni- and thereby effectively turn that cently in preparing the conceptual versity in Montreal have demon- gene off. framework and design ideas for the strated a nanopill with structures in Accelerating progress in biotech- coming age of nanotechnology. the 25 to 45 nanometer range. The nology will enable us to reprogram Nanotechnology has expanded to nanopill is small enough to pass our genes and metabolic processes to include any technology in which a through the cell wall and deliver propel the fields of genomics (influ- machine’s key features are measured medications directly to targeted encing genes), proteomics (under- by fewer than 100 nanometers. Just structures inside the cell. standing and influencing the role of as contemporary electronics has al- MicroCHIPS of Bedford, Massa- proteins), gene therapy (suppressing ready quietly slipped into this nano chusetts, has developed a computer- gene expression as well as adding realm, the area of biological and ized device that is implanted under new genetic information), rational medical applications has already en- the skin and delivers precise mix- drug design (formulating drugs that tered the era of nanoparticles, in tures of medicines from hundreds of target precise changes in disease and which nanoscale objects are being nanoscale wells inside the device. aging processes), as well as the ther- developed to create more-effective Future versions of the device are ex- apeutic cloning of rejuvenated cells, tests and treatments. pected to be able to measure blood tissues, and organs. In the area of testing and diagno- levels of substances such as glucose. sis, nanoparticles are being em- The system could be used as an arti- ployed in experimental biological ficial pancreas, releasing precise The Nanotechnology Revolution tests as tags and labels to greatly en- amounts of insulin based on the Nanotechnology promises the hance sensitivity in detecting sub- blood glucose response. The system tools to rebuild the physical world, stances such as proteins. Magnetic would also be capable of simulating our bodies, and our brains, molecu- nanotags can be used to bind with any other hormone-producing or- lar fragment by molecular fragment antibodies that can then be read us- gan. If trials go smoothly, the system and potentially atom by atom. We ing magnetic probes while still in- could be on the market by 2008. An- are shrinking the key features (work- side the body. Successful experi- other innovative proposal is to guide ing parts), in accordance with the ments have been conducted with nanoparticles (probably composed of law of accelerating returns, at an ex- gold nanoparticles that are bound to gold) to a tumor site and then heat

42 THE FUTURIST March-April 2006 www.wfs.org them with infrared beams to destroy ties, memories, and overall the cancer cells. thinking capacity, as well as The revolution in nanotechnology to directly interface with will allow us to do a great deal more powerful forms of computer than simply treat disease. Ultimately, intelligence. The technology nanotech will enable us to redesign will also provide wireless and rebuild not only our bodies and communication from one brains, but also the world with brain to another. which we interact. The full realiza- In other words, the age of tion of nanotechnology, however, telepathic communication is will lag behind the biotechnology almost upon us. revolution by about one decade. But Our brains today are rela- by the mid to late 2020s, the effects tively fixed in design. Al- of the nanotech revolution will be though we do add patterns widespread and obvious. of interneuronal connections and neurotransmitter concentrations as a normal Nanotechnology and part of the learning process, ILLUSTRATION: PATRICK TUCKER, WFS / IMAGES: PHOTOS.COM The Human Brain the current overall capacity of the senses, as well as neurological corre- The most important and radical human brain is highly constrained. lates of our emotions, from within application particularly of circa-2030 As humanity’s artificial-intelligence the nervous system. More impor- nanobots will be to expand our (AI) capabilities begin to upstage our tantly, this intimate connection minds through the merger of bio- human intelligence at the end of the between our biological thinking and logical and nonbiological, or “ma- 2030s, we will be able to move be- the machine intelligence we are cre- chine,” intelligence. In the next 25 yond the basic architecture of the ating will profoundly expand years, we will learn how to augment brain’s neural regions. human intelligence. our 100 trillion very slow inter- Brain implants based on massively Warfare will move toward nanobot- neuronal connections with high- distributed intelligent nanobots will based weapons, as well as speed virtual connections via nano- greatly expand our memories and cyberweapons. Learning will first robotics. This will allow us to greatly otherwise vastly improve all of our move online, but once our brains are boost our pattern-recognition abili- sensory, pattern-recognition, and fully online we will be able to down- cognitive abilities. Since the nanobots load new knowledge and skills. The PHOTOS.COM will be communicating with one an- role of work will be to create other, they will be able to create any knowledge of all kinds, from music set of new neural connections, break and art to math and science. The role existing connections (by suppressing of play will also be to create neural firing), create new hybrid bio- knowledge. In the future, there logical and computer networks, and won’t be a clear distinction between add completely mechanical net- work and play. works, as well as interface intimately with new computer programs and The Robotic Revolution artificial intelligences. The implementation of artificial in- Of the three technological revolu- telligence in our biological systems tions underlying the Singularity will mark an evolutionary leap for- (genetic, nano-mechanical, and ro- ward for humanity, but it also im- botic), the most profound is robotic plies we will indeed become more or, as it is commonly called, the “machine” than “human.” Billions of strong artificial intelligence revolution. nanobots will travel through the This refers to the creation of com- bloodstream in our bodies and puter thinking ability that exceeds brains. In our bodies, they will de- the thinking ability of humans. We stroy pathogens, correct DNA errors, are very close to the day when fully eliminate toxins, and perform many biological humans (as we now know Our brains today are relatively fixed in design. As humanity’s artificial-intelligence (AI) other tasks to enhance our physical them) cease to be the dominant intel- capabilities begin to upstage our human in- well-being. As a result, we will be ligence on the planet. By the end of telligence at the end of the 2030s, we will able to live indefinitely without this century, computational or me- be able to move beyond the basic architec- aging. chanical intelligence will be trillions ture of the brain’s neural regions. But artifi- In our brains, nanobots will inter- of trillions of times more powerful cial Intelligence will be based, at least in act with our biological neurons. This than unaided human brain power. I part, on a human-made version of a fully will provide full-immersion virtual argue that computer, or as I call it functional human brain. reality incorporating all of the nonbiological intelligence, should still

THE FUTURIST March-April 2006 www.wfs.org 43 be considered human since it is fully increased proficiency in reading, un- nature cannot be controlled. derived from human–machine civi- derstanding, and synthesizing all The nano/robotic revolution will lization and will be based, at least in human–machine information. also force us to reconsider the very part, on a human-made version of a definition of human. Not only will fully functional human brain. The we be surrounded by machines that The Chicken or the Egg merger of these two worlds of intelli- will display distinctly human char- gence is not merely a merger of bio- A key question regarding the Sin- acteristics, but also we will be less logical and mechanical thinking gularity is whether the “chicken” human from a literal standpoint. mediums, but also (and more impor- (strong AI) or the “egg” (nanotech- Despite the wonderful future po- tantly) a merger of method and orga- nology) will come first. In other tential of medicine, real human nizational thinking that will expand words, will strong AI lead to full longevity will only be attained when our minds in virtually every imagi- nanotechnology (molecular-manu- we move away from our biological nable way. facturing assemblers that can turn bodies entirely. As we move toward Biological human thinking is lim- information into physical products), a software-based existence, we will ited to 1016 calculations per second or will full nanotechnology lead to gain the means of “backing our- (cps) per human brain (based on strong AI? selves up” (storing the key patterns neuromorphic modeling of brain The logic of the first premise is underlying our knowledge, skills, regions) and about 1026 cps for all that strong AI would be in a position and personality in a digital setting) human brains. These figures will not to solve any remaining design prob- thereby enabling a virtual immortal- appreciably change, even with bio- lems required to implement full ity. Thanks to nanotechnology, we engineering adjustments to our nanotechnology. The second premise will have bodies that we can not genome. The processing capacity of is based on the assumption that only modify, but also change into nonbiological intelligence or strong hardware requirements for strong AI new forms at will. We will be able to AI, in contrast, is growing at an ex- will be met by nanotechnology- quickly change our bodies in full-im- ponential rate (with the rate itself based computation. Likewise, the mersion virtual-reality environments increasing) and will vastly exceed software requirements for engineer- incorporating all of the senses dur- biological intelligence by the mid- ing strong AI would be facilitated by ing the 2020s and in real reality in 2040s. nanobots. These microscopic ma- the 2040s. Artificial intelligence will neces- chines will allow us to create highly sarily exceed human intelligence for detailed scans of human brains Implications of the Singularity several reasons. First, machines can along with diagrams of how the share knowledge and communicate human brain is able to do all the What will be the nature of human with one another far more efficiently wonderful things that have long experience once computer intelli- than can humans. As humans, we do mystified us, such as create meaning, gence predominates? What are the not have the means to exchange the contextualize information, and expe- implications for the human–machine vast patterns of interneuronal con- rience emotion. Once we fully un- civilization when strong AI and nections and neurotransmitter-con- derstand how the brain functions, nanotechnology can create any prod- centration levels that comprise our we will be able to recreate the phe- uct, any situation, any environment learning, knowledge, and skills, nomenon of human thinking in ma- that we can imagine at will? I stress other than through slow, language- chines. We will endow computers, the role of imagination here because based communication. already superior to us in the per- we will still be constrained in our Second, humanity’s intellectual formance of mechanical tasks, with creations to what we can imagine. skills have developed in ways that lifelike intelligence. But our tools for bringing imagina- have been evolutionarily encouraged Progress in both areas (nano and tion to life are growing exponentially in natural environments. Those robotic) will necessarily use our more powerful. skills, which are primarily based on most-advanced tools, so advances in People often go through three our abilities to recognize and extract each field will simultaneously facili- stages in considering the impact of meaning from patterns, enable us to tate the other. However, I do expect future technology: awe and wonder- be highly proficient in certain tasks, that the most important nanotechno- ment at its potential to overcome such as distinguishing faces, identi- logical breakthroughs will emerge age-old problems, then a sense of fying objects, and recognizing lan- prior to strong AI, but only by a few dread at the grave new dangers that guage sounds. Unfortunately, our years (around 2025 for nanotech- accompany these novel technologies, brains are less well-suited for deal- nology and 2029 for strong AI). followed finally by the realization ing with more-complex patterns, As revolutionary as nanotech- that the only viable and responsible such as those that exist in financial, nology will be, strong AI will have path is to set a careful course that scientific, or product data. The appli- far more profound consequences. can realize the benefits while manag- cation of computer-based techniques Nanotechnology is powerful but not ing the dangers. will allow us to fully master pattern- necessarily intelligent. We can devise My own expectation is that the recognition paradigms. Finally, as ways of at least trying to manage the creative and constructive applica- human knowledge migrates to the enormous powers of nanotech- tions of these technologies will dom- Web, machines will demonstrate nology, but superintelligence by its inate, as I believe they do today.

44 THE FUTURIST March-April 2006 www.wfs.org However, we need to vastly increase development of physical entities that poverty-stricken, disaster-prone lives our investment in developing spe- can self-replicate in a natural envi- that 99% of the human race strug- cific defensive technologies. We are ronment free of any human control gled through two centuries ago? at the critical stage where we need to or override mechanism. However, We may romanticize the past, but directly implement defensive tech- deciding in favor of too many limita- up until fairly recently most of hu- nologies for nanotechnology during tions and restrictions would under- manity lived extremely fragile lives the late teen years of this century. mine economic progress and is in which one all-too-common mis- I believe that a narrow relinquish- ethically unjustified, given the op- fortune could spell disaster. Two ment of the development of certain portunity to alleviate disease, over- hundred years ago, life expectancy capabilities needs to be part of our come poverty, and clean up the for females in the record-holding ethical response to the dangers of environment. country (Sweden) was roughly 35 twenty-first-century technological We don’t have to look past today years—very brief compared with the challenges. For example, Bill Joy and to see the intertwined promise and longest life expectancy today, almost I wrote a joint op-ed piece in the New peril of technological advancement. 85 years for Japanese women. Life York Times recently, criticizing the Imagine describing the dangers expectancy for males was roughly 33 publication of the 1918 flu genome (atomic and hydrogen bombs, for years, compared with the current 79 on the Web because it constitutes a one thing) that exist today to people years. Half a day was often required dangerous blueprint. Another con- who lived a couple of hundred years to prepare an evening meal, and structive example of this are the ago. They would think it mad to take hard labor characterized most ethical guidelines proposed by the such risks. But how many people in human activity. There were no social Foresight Institute: namely, that nano- 2006 would really want to go back to safety nets. Substantial portions of technologists agree to relinquish the the short, brutish, disease-filled, our species still live in this precari-

ILLUSTRATION: PATRICK TUCKER, WFS / IMAGES: PHOTOS.COM

THE FUTURIST March-April 2006 www.wfs.org 45 ous way, which is at least one reason universe, quickly reaching the fastest That development enabled the per- to continue technological progress speed possible. We understand that sistence of the accelerating pace that and the economic improvement that speed to be the speed of light, but started with biological evolution. It accompanies it. Only technology, there are suggestions that we may be may continue until the entire uni- with its ability to provide orders of able to circumvent this apparent verse is at our fingertips. magnitude of advances in capability limit (conceivably by taking short- and affordability, has the scale to cuts through “wormholes,” or hypo- confront problems such as poverty, thetical shortcuts through space and disease, pollution, and the other time). About the Author Ray Kurzweil is a scientist, overriding concerns of society today. A common view is that science has inventor, and entrepreneur. The benefits of applying ourselves to consistently been correcting our He has received 12 hon- these challenges cannot be over- overly inflated view of our own sig- orary doctorates in science, stated. nificance. Stephen Jay Gould said, engineering, music, and hu- As the Singularity approaches, we “The most important scientific revo- mane letters from Rensse- will have to reconsider our ideas lutions all include, as their only com- laer Polytechnic Institute, about the nature of human life and mon feature, the dethronement of Hofstra University, and other leading col- redesign our human institutions. In- human arrogance from one pedestal leges and universities. He has been intelligence on and around Earth will after another of previous convictions ducted into the National Inventors Hall of continue to expand exponentially about our centrality in the cosmos.” Fame and received the 1999 National Medal of Technology, among numerous until we reach the limits of matter Instead, it turns out we are central. other awards. His Web site, www.KurzweilAI and energy to support intelligent Our ability to create models—virtual .net, has more than a million readers and computation. As we approach this realities—in our brains, combined includes a free daily e-newsletter. This limit in our corner of the galaxy, the with our modest-looking thumbs, article draws, in part, on his most recent intelligence of our civilization will has been sufficient to usher in an- book, The Singularity Is Near: When expand outward into the rest of the other form of evolution: technology. Humans Transcend Biology (Viking, 2005).

Technology and Human Enhancement By John Smart

I have a few differences of opinion with Kurzweil The common notion that the “future about the coming Singularity. can’t be predicted” is demonstrably false I think he is being overly optimistic about biotechnol- with regard to a wide number of accelerat- ogy’s ability to create substantially better biological ing physical-computational trends, even human beings. While we’ll certainly learn to push though we do not yet know specifically how those tech- human capacities to their natural limits in coming nologies will be implemented. We can no longer ignore decades, I see nothing on the horizon that would allow the profound technological changes occurring all around us to exceed those limits. Biology seems far too frail, us. slow, complex, and well defended (both at the molecular It’s also time we acknowledged the slowness of human level and with regard to social custom) for that to be biology compared with our technological progeny. Our plausible within any reasonable time frame. Further- machines are increasingly exceeding us in the perform- more, by the time we are able to substantially improve ance of more and more tasks, from guiding objects like our biology, we probably won’t want to, as there will be missiles or satellites to assembling other machines. They far more interesting and powerful technological environ- are merging with us ever more intimately and are learn- ments available to us instead. This points to the impor- ing how to reconfigure our biology in new and signifi- tance of understanding the relative accelerations of vari- cantly faster technological domains. ous technologies (in this case, biological vs. Something very interesting is happening, and human technological). beings are selective catalysts, not absolute controllers, of In his book, Kurzweil makes a major contribution to this process. Let us face this openly, and investigate it ac- the literature on acceleration studies by clearly explain- tively, so that we may guide these developments as ing technological acceleration curves. These acceleration wisely as possible. curves show that the longer we use a technology, the more we get out of it: We use less energy, space, and About the Author time, and we get more capacity for less cost. Technologi- John Smart is a developmental systems theorist and the president cal acceleration curves are a little-understood area, but of the Acceleration Studies Foundation, 2227 Amirante, San Pedro, thanks to pioneers like Kurzweil, interest and research in California 90732. Telephone 310-831-4191; Web site www.acceler the field are advancing. ating.org.

46 THE FUTURIST March-April 2006 www.wfs.org Runaway Artificial Intelligence? By J. Storrs Hall

Some years ago, I reviewed Ray Kurzweil’s earlier book, after human brains, so that they would The Age of Spiritual Machines, for the Foresight Nanotech In- have our morals and values built in. In- stitute’s newsletter. Shortly thereafter I met him in person deed, this would clearly be the wise and at a Foresight event, and he had read the review. He told prudent course. Unfortunately, it seems all me, “Of all the people who reviewed my book, you were too likely that a shortcut exists without that kind of safe- the only one who said I was too conservative!” guard. Corporations already use huge computer systems The Singularity Is Near is very well researched, and in for data mining and decision support that employ so- general, Kurzweil’s predictions are about as good as it’s phisticated algorithms no human manager understands. possible to get for things that far in advance. I still think It’s a very short step to having such a system make better he’s too conservative in one specific area: Synthetic com- decisions than the managers do, as far as the corpora- puter-based artificial intelligence will become available tion’s bottom line is concerned. well before nanotechnology makes neuron-level brain The Singularity may mean different things to different scans possible in the 2020s. people. To me, it is that point where intelligences signifi- What’s happening is that existing technologies like cantly greater than our own control so many of the es- functional MRI are beginning to give us a high-level sential processes that figure in our lives that mere functional block diagram of the brain’s processes. At the humans can’t predict what happens next. This future same time, the hardware capable of running a strong, ar- may be even nearer than Ray Kurzweil has predicted. tificially intelligent computer, by most estimates, is here now, though it’s still pricey. About the Author Existing AI software techniques can build programs J. Storrs Hall is chief scientist of Nanorex Inc. and a fellow of the that are experts in any well-defined field. The break- Molecular Engineering Research Institute. His address is Nanorex throughs necessary for such programs to learn for them- Inc., 2738 Turtle Ridge Drive, Bloomfield Hills, Michigan 48302. selves could happen easily in the next decade—one or He is the author of Nanofuture: What’s Next for Nanotechnology two decades before Kurzweil predicts. (Prometheus Books, 2005, $28), which is available from the Futurist Kurzweil finesses the issue of runaway AI by propos- Bookshelf, www.wfs.org/bkshelf.htm. ing a pathway where machine intelligence is patterned

BETH GWINN Nanofactories, Gang Wars, and “Feelies” By Damien Broderick

A quarter century ago, we’d have laughed at the into gang wars among those for whom life prospect of “Dick Tracy” cell phones with cameras; now retains no discipline or meaning outside of they’re everywhere, and nobody noticed after the first arbitrary local status and violence. People few days. So the jump to the idea of a Singularity is not (young men especially) with full bellies really extraordinary. But should we really expect ever gained effortlessly, but lacking meaning in their lives, more substantial changes to follow the same accelerat- often find purpose in ganging up on each other in fits of ing, headlong pace? murderous primate chest-pounding. Making Huxleian It’s reasonable to expect affordable computers to be smaller soma, or “feelies,” the opiate of the people might help, and more powerful, 1,000 times improved in a decade, one but that, too, is a sickening prospect. million times in 20 years, one billion in 30. By then, some ma- On the other hand, those strictly unforeseeable and chines might have capabilities to rival the human mind. A mysterious changes captured in the word “Singularity” new intelligent species might share the planet with us. are likely to overwhelm and surpass such predictable In addition, developing technologies such as molecu- downsides of any technological utopia or dystopia. The lar manufacture—nanotechnology—will allow the very eeriest aspect of accelerating change is that we ourselves, engines of productivity to be copied cheaply and distrib- and our children, will be the ones soaking in it. The uted widely. If that happens the gap between rich and sooner we start thinking seriously about the prospect, the poor might diminish. However, it will only occur if we better prepared we’ll be. find ways to prevent portable nanofactories from making lethal weapons available to any child or psychopath. We’ll be able to solve most of the problems that currently About the Author vex us—global warming (to the extent that it’s caused by Damien Broderick is a senior fellow in the Department of English and Cultural Studies at the University of Melbourne, Australia. His humans), water and food shortages, provision of clean, futurist books include The Spike (1997, rev. 2001), The Last Mortal cheap power, and so on. Generation (1999), and Ferocious Minds (2005). His novels dealing There is a scary downside that I discussed nearly a with the Singularity include Transcension (2002), The Hunger of decade ago in my book The Spike: Dirt-cheap molecular Time (with Rory Barnes, 2003), Godplayers (2005), and K-Ma- manufacturing may end poverty and strife, but there ex- chines (forthcoming, 2006). He lives in Melbourne, Australia, and ists a risk that a world of lotus-eaters will degenerate San Antonio, Texas.

THE FUTURIST March-April 2006 www.wfs.org 47 Techno-Utopia and Human Values By Richard Eckersley

I have sometimes asked audiences if they are inspired rates of infant mortality—but those who or excited by the sort of techno-utopian vision repre- survived often lived socially and spiritu- sented by the Singularity; almost no one is. In my sur- ally rich lives. It doesn’t make evolution- veys over the past decade, I found dwindling minorities ary sense to believe humans lived in mis- of young people (one-fifth to one-quarter) believe in the ery until we discovered technological progress. Animals sort of technical fixes to human problems that Ray in the wild don’t live that way, and humans have been, Kurzweil champions, while an increased majority (about for most of their history, animals in the wild. three-quarters) believe science and technology are alien- The future world that Kurzweil describes bears almost ating people from each other and from nature. no relationship to human well-being that I am aware of. The question I ask is, why? Why pursue this future? I In essence, human health and happiness comes from don’t pose this question dismissively, or derogatorily, but being connected and engaged, from being suspended in out of genuine curiosity and a desire for an open, honest a web of relationships and interests—personal, social, conversation. I’m skeptical of arguments that say pre- and spiritual—that give meaning to our lives. The inti- technological humans led short, nasty, and brutish lives. macy and support provided by close personal relation- Yes, life expectancy was lower—mainly because of high ships seem to matter most; isolation exacts the highest price. The need to belong is more important than the need to be rich. Meaning matters more than money and what it buys. We are left with the matter of des- Ray Kurzweil reponds: tiny: It is our preordained fate, Richard Eckersley’s idyllic notion of Kurzweil suggests, to advance tech- human life hundreds of years ago belies nologically “until the entire universe our scientific knowledge of history. Two is at our fingertips.” The question hundred years ago, there was no under- then becomes, preordained by standing of sanitation, so bacterial in- whom or what? Biological evolution fections were rampant. There were no has not set this course for us. Is tech- antibiotics and no social safety nets, so nology itself the planner? Perhaps it an infectious disease was a disaster will eventually be, but not yet. Is plunging a family into desperation. God the entity doing the ordaining? Thomas Hobbes’s characterization in A lot of religious people would have 1651 of human life as solitary, poor, something to say about that, and are nasty, brutish, and short was on the likely to strenuously, and even vio- mark. Even ignoring infant mortality, lently, oppose what the Singularity life expectancy was in the 30s only a promises, as I have argued before couple of hundred years ago. Schubert’s and Mozart’s deaths at (THE FUTURIST, November-December 31 and 35 respectively were typical. 2001). Eckersley bases his romanticized idea of ancient life on com- We are left to conclude that we munication and the relationships fostered by communication. will do this because it is we who But much of modern technology is directed at just this basic have decided it is our destiny. But human need. The telephone allowed people to be together even we have made no such decision, if far apart geographically. The Internet is the quintessential really, as the observations with communication technology. Social networks and the panoply of which I began this commentary new ways to make connection are creating communities based show. on genuine common interests rather than the accident of geography. About the Author This decentralized electronic communication is also highly de- Richard Eckersley is a fellow at the National mocratizing. In a book I wrote in the mid-1980s, I predicted the Centre for Epidemiology and Population demise of the Soviet Union from the impact of the then-emerging Health at the Australian National University, communication networks, and that is indeed what happened in Canberra, Australia, and author of Well & the early 1990s. The democracy movement we saw in the 1990s Good: Morality, Meaning and Happiness and since is similarly fueled by our unprecedented abilities to (Text Publishing, Melbourne, 2005). E-mail stay in touch. [email protected]. If Eckersley really sticks to his own philosophy, he won’t be around for very long to influence the debate. But I hope that he will take advantage of the life extension—and enhancement— FEEDBACK: Send your comments technologies that will emerge in the decades ahead, so that we about this article to [email protected]. can continue this dialogue through this century and beyond.

48 THE FUTURIST March-April 2006 www.wfs.org