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Infinite Ethics
INFINITE ETHICS Nick Bostrom Faculty of Philosophy Oxford University [Published in Analysis and Metaphysics, Vol. 10 (2011): pp. 9-59] [This is the final version. Earlier versions: 2003, 2005, 2008, 2009] www.nickbostrom.com ABSTRACT Aggregative consequentialism and several other popular moral theories are threatened with paralysis: when coupled with some plausible assumptions, they seem to imply that it is always ethically indifferent what you do. Modern cosmology teaches that the world might well contain an infinite number of happy and sad people and other candidate value-bearing locations. Aggregative ethics implies that such a world contains an infinite amount of positive value and an infinite amount of negative value. You can affect only a finite amount of good or bad. In standard cardinal arithmetic, an infinite quantity is unchanged by the addition or subtraction of any finite quantity. So it appears you cannot change the value of the world. Modifications of aggregationism aimed at resolving the paralysis are only partially effective and cause severe side effects, including problems of “fanaticism”, “distortion”, and erosion of the intuitions that originally motivated the theory. Is the infinitarian challenge fatal? 1. The challenge 1.1. The threat of infinitarian paralysis When we gaze at the starry sky at night and try to think of humanity from a “cosmic point of view”, we feel small. Human history, with all its earnest strivings, triumphs, and tragedies can remind us of a colony of ants, laboring frantically to rearrange the needles of their little ephemeral stack. We brush such late-night rumination aside in our daily life and analytic 1 philosophy. -
Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks
journal of international humanitarian legal studies 11 (2020) 295-310 brill.com/ihls Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks Hin-Yan Liu, Kristian Lauta and Matthijs Maas Faculty of Law, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Abstract This paper explores the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic through the framework of exis- tential risks – a class of extreme risks that threaten the entire future of humanity. In doing so, we tease out three lessons: (1) possible reasons underlying the limits and shortfalls of international law, international institutions and other actors which Covid-19 has revealed, and what they reveal about the resilience or fragility of institu- tional frameworks in the face of existential risks; (2) using Covid-19 to test and refine our prior ‘Boring Apocalypses’ model for understanding the interplay of hazards, vul- nerabilities and exposures in facilitating a particular disaster, or magnifying its effects; and (3) to extrapolate some possible futures for existential risk scholarship and governance. Keywords Covid-19 – pandemics – existential risks – global catastrophic risks – boring apocalypses 1 Introduction: Our First ‘Brush’ with Existential Risk? All too suddenly, yesterday’s ‘impossibilities’ have turned into today’s ‘condi- tions’. The impossible has already happened, and quickly. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, both directly and as manifested through the far-reaching global societal responses to it, signal a jarring departure away from even the © koninklijke brill nv, leiden, 2020 | doi:10.1163/18781527-01102004Downloaded from Brill.com09/27/2021 12:13:00AM via free access <UN> 296 Liu, Lauta and Maas recent past, and suggest that our futures will be profoundly different in its af- termath. -
UC Santa Barbara Other Recent Work
UC Santa Barbara Other Recent Work Title Geopolitics, History, and International Relations Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/29z457nf Author Robinson, William I. Publication Date 2009 Peer reviewed eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE CONTEMPORARY SCIENCE ASSOCIATION • NEW YORK Geopolitics, History, and International Relations VOLUME 1(2) • 2009 ADDLETON ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS • NEW YORK Geopolitics, History, and International Relations 1(2) 2009 An international peer-reviewed academic journal Copyright © 2009 by the Contemporary Science Association, New York Geopolitics, History, and International Relations seeks to explore the theoretical implications of contemporary geopolitics with particular reference to territorial problems and issues of state sovereignty, and publishes papers on contemporary world politics and the global political economy from a variety of methodologies and approaches. Interdisciplinary and wide-ranging in scope, Geopolitics, History, and International Relations also provides a forum for discussion on the latest developments in the theory of international relations and aims to promote an understanding of the breadth, depth and policy relevance of international history. Its purpose is to stimulate and disseminate theory-aware research and scholarship in international relations throughout the international academic community. Geopolitics, History, and International Relations offers important original contributions by outstanding scholars and has the potential to become one of the leading journals in the field, embracing all aspects of the history of relations between states and societies. Journal ranking: A on a seven-point scale (A+, A, B+, B, C+, C, D). Geopolitics, History, and International Relations is published twice a year by Addleton Academic Publishers, 30-18 50th Street, Woodside, New York, 11377. -
FROM LONGITUDE to ALTITUDE: INDUCEMENT PRIZE CONTESTS AS INSTRUMENTS of PUBLIC POLICY in SCIENCE and TECHNOLOGY Clayton Stallbau
FROM LONGITUDE TO ALTITUDE: INDUCEMENT PRIZE CONTESTS AS INSTRUMENTS OF PUBLIC POLICY IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Clayton Stallbaumer* I. INTRODUCTION On a foggy October night in 1707, a fleet of Royal Navy warships ran aground on the Isles of Scilly, some twenty miles southwest of England.1 Believing themselves to be safely west of any navigational hazards, two thousand sailors discovered too late that they had fatally misjudged their position.2 Although the search for an accurate method to determine longitude had bedeviled Europe for several centuries, the “sudden loss of so many lives, so many ships, and so much honor all at once” elevated the discovery of a solution to a top national priority in England.3 In 1714, Parliament issued the Longitude Act,4 promising as much as £20,0005 for a “Practicable and Useful” method of determining longitude at sea; fifty-nine years later, clockmaker John Harrison claimed the prize.6 Nearly three centuries after the fleet’s tragic demise, another accident, also fatal but far removed from longitude’s terrestrial reach, struck a nation deeply. Just four days after its crew observed a moment’s silence in memory of the Challenger astronauts, the space shuttle Columbia disintegrated upon reentry, killing all on board.7 Although * J.D., University of Illinois College of Law, 2006; M.B.A., University of Illinois College of Business, 2006; B.A., Economics, B.A., History, Lake Forest College, 2001. 1. DAVA SOBEL, LONGITUDE: THE TRUE STORY OF A LONE GENIUS WHO SOLVED THE GREATEST SCIENTIFIC PROBLEM OF HIS TIME 12 (1995). -
Between Ape and Artilect Createspace V2
Between Ape and Artilect Conversations with Pioneers of Artificial General Intelligence and Other Transformative Technologies Interviews Conducted and Edited by Ben Goertzel This work is offered under the following license terms: Creative Commons: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported (CC-BY-NC-ND-3.0) See http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ for details Copyright © 2013 Ben Goertzel All rights reserved. ISBN: ISBN-13: “Man is a rope stretched between the animal and the Superman – a rope over an abyss.” -- Friedrich Nietzsche, Thus Spake Zarathustra Table&of&Contents& Introduction ........................................................................................................ 7! Itamar Arel: AGI via Deep Learning ................................................................. 11! Pei Wang: What Do You Mean by “AI”? .......................................................... 23! Joscha Bach: Understanding the Mind ........................................................... 39! Hugo DeGaris: Will There be Cyborgs? .......................................................... 51! DeGaris Interviews Goertzel: Seeking the Sputnik of AGI .............................. 61! Linas Vepstas: AGI, Open Source and Our Economic Future ........................ 89! Joel Pitt: The Benefits of Open Source for AGI ............................................ 101! Randal Koene: Substrate-Independent Minds .............................................. 107! João Pedro de Magalhães: Ending Aging .................................................... -
Challenges to the Omohundro—Bostrom Framework for AI Motivations
Challenges to the Omohundro—Bostrom framework for AI motivations Olle Häggström1 Abstract Purpose. This paper contributes to the futurology of a possible artificial intelligence (AI) breakthrough, by reexamining the Omohundro—Bostrom theory for instrumental vs final AI goals. Does that theory, along with its predictions for what a superintelligent AI would be motivated to do, hold water? Design/methodology/approach. The standard tools of systematic reasoning and analytic philosophy are used to probe possible weaknesses of Omohundro—Bostrom theory from four different directions: self-referential contradictions, Tegmark’s physics challenge, moral realism, and the messy case of human motivations. Findings. The two cornerstones of Omohundro—Bostrom theory – the orthogonality thesis and the instrumental convergence thesis – are both open to various criticisms that question their validity and scope. These criticisms are however far from conclusive: while they do suggest that a reasonable amount of caution and epistemic humility is attached to predictions derived from the theory, further work will be needed to clarify its scope and to put it on more rigorous foundations. Originality/value. The practical value of being able to predict AI goals and motivations under various circumstances cannot be overstated: the future of humanity may depend on it. Currently the only framework available for making such predictions is Omohundro—Bostrom theory, and the value of the present paper is to demonstrate its tentative nature and the need for further scrutiny. 1. Introduction Any serious discussion of the long-term future of humanity needs to take into account the possible influence of radical new technologies, or risk turning out irrelevant and missing all the action due to implicit and unwarranted assumptions about technological status quo. -
Comments to Michael Jackson's Keynote on Determining Energy
Comments to Michael Jackson’s Keynote on Determining Energy Futures using Artificial Intelligence Prof Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) University of Turku ENERGIZING FUTURES 13–14 June 2018 Tampere, Finland AI and Energy • Concrete tools: How Shaping Tomorrow answers the question How can AI help? • Goal of foresight crystal clear: Making better decisions today Huge Challenge – The Challenge The world will need to cut energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by 60 percent by 2050 -even as the population grows by more than two billion people Bold Solution on the Horizon The Renewable Energy Transition Companies as pioneers on energy themes, demand, supply, consumption • Google will reach 100% RE for its global operations this year • GE using AI to boost different forms of energy production and use tech-driven data reports to anticipate performance and maintenance needs around the world BUT …also the role of governments, cities and citizens …NGOs, media… new actors should be emphasised AI + Energy + Peer-to-Peer Society • The transformation of the energy system aligns with the principles of a Peer-to-Peer Society. • Peer-to-peer practices are based on the active participation and self-organisation of citizens. Citizens share knowledge, skills, co-create, and form new peer groups. • Citizens will use their capabilities also to develop energy-related products and services Rethinking Concepts Buildings as Power stations – global (economic) opportunity to construct buildings that generate, store and release solar energy -
Optimising Peace Through a Universal Global Peace Treaty to Constrain the Risk of War from a Militarised Artificial Superintelligence
OPTIMISING PEACE THROUGH A UNIVERSAL GLOBAL PEACE TREATY TO CONSTRAIN THE RISK OF WAR FROM A MILITARISED ARTIFICIAL SUPERINTELLIGENCE Working Paper John Draper Research Associate, Nonkilling Economics and Business Research Committee Center for Global Nonkilling, Honolulu, Hawai’i A United Nations-accredited NGO Working Paper: Optimising Peace Through a Universal Global Peace Treaty to Constrain the Risk of War from a Militarised Artificial Superintelligence Abstract This paper argues that an artificial superintelligence (ASI) emerging in a world where war is still normalised constitutes a catastrophic existential risk, either because the ASI might be employed by a nation-state to wage war for global domination, i.e., ASI-enabled warfare, or because the ASI wars on behalf of itself to establish global domination, i.e., ASI-directed warfare. These risks are not mutually incompatible in that the first can transition to the second. Presently, few states declare war on each other or even war on each other, in part due to the 1945 UN Charter, which states Member States should “refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state”, while allowing for UN Security Council-endorsed military measures and “exercise of self-defense”. In this theoretical ideal, wars are not declared; instead, 'international armed conflicts' occur. However, costly interstate conflicts, both ‘hot’ and ‘cold’, still exist, for instance the Kashmir Conflict and the Korean War. Further a ‘New Cold War’ between AI superpowers, the United States and China, looms. An ASI-directed/enabled future conflict could trigger ‘total war’, including nuclear war, and is therefore high risk. -
And Transhumanism Robert Ranisch & Stefan Lorenz Sorgner Scientific and Technological Advances Have Questioned Predominant Doctrines Concerning the Human Condition
Introducing Post- and Transhumanism Robert Ranisch & Stefan Lorenz Sorgner Scientific and technological advances have questioned predominant doctrines concerning the human condition. Transhumanism and posthumanism are among the most recent and prominent manifestations of this phenomenon. Debates on trans- and posthumanism have not only gained a considerable amount of aca- demic and popular attention recently, but have also created a widespread con- ceptual confusion. This is no surprise, considering their recent dates of origin, their conceptual similarities, and their engagements with similar questions, top- ics, and motifs. Furthermore, trans- as well as posthumanism frequently question their relationship to humanism1 and reconsider what it means to be human. In this regard both movements are streaming beyond humanism. What this means, however, is far from clear and shall be subject of discussion in this volume. In order to make sense of these two approaches and to investigate their inter- relationship, a clarification of these concepts is necessary. As a first approxima- tion, transhumanism can be seen as a stance that affirms the radical transfor- mation of human’s biological capacities and social conditions by means of tech- 1 We will not be able to address the complex histories and varieties of humanism in this chapter. Yet, the following must be noted: The word “humanism” (Humanismus) was coined in 1808 by the German theologian and philosopher Friedrich I. Niethammer in the context of educational curricula, as it is derived from the Latin word humanitas. This word has a variety of meaning but has strongly been identified with the Greek word paideia (παιδεία), e.g., i.) in Cicero’s De Oratore (I, 71) the meaning of the concept hu- manitas corresponds to that of the concept paideia; ii.) in the text Noctes Acticae (XIII, 17) by the Latin author Aulus Gellius, who lived in the 2nd century, an explicit identifi- cation of paideia and humanitas can be found. -
Artificial Intelligence As a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk
The Singularity Institute Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk Eliezer Yudkowsky The Singularity Institute Yudkowsky, Eliezer. 2008. Artificial intelligence as a positive and negative factor in global risk. In Global catastrophic risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan M. Cirkovic, 308–345. New York: Oxford University Press. This version contains minor changes. Eliezer Yudkowsky 1. Introduction By far the greatest danger of Artificial Intelligence is that people conclude too early that they understand it. Of course this problem is not limited to the field of AI. Jacques Monod wrote: “A curious aspect of the theory of evolution is that everybody thinks he understands it” (Monod 1975). My father, a physicist, complained about people making up their own theories of physics; he wanted to know why people did not make up their own theories of chemistry. (Answer: They do.) Nonetheless the problem seems tobe unusually acute in Artificial Intelligence. The field of AI has a reputation formaking huge promises and then failing to deliver on them. Most observers conclude that AI is hard; as indeed it is. But the embarrassment does not stem from the difficulty. It is difficult to build a star from hydrogen, but the field of stellar astronomy does not have a terrible reputation for promising to build stars and then failing. The critical inference is not that AI is hard, but that, for some reason, it is very easy for people to think they know far more about Artificial Intelligence than they actually do. In my other chapter for Global Catastrophic Risks, “Cognitive Biases Potentially Affect- ing Judgment of Global Risks” (Yudkowsky 2008), I opened by remarking that few people would deliberately choose to destroy the world; a scenario in which the Earth is destroyed by mistake is therefore very worrisome. -
Less Wrong Sequences Pdf
Less wrong sequences pdf Continue % Print Ready Lesswrong Sequences Print Friendly Versions of Lesswrong Sequence, Enjoy! The basic sequences of Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions How to See through many disguises of answers or beliefs or statements that do not respond or say or mean nothing. The first (and probably most important) main sequence on Less Wrong. the epub pdf-version of the reductionism discount the second core sequence is less wrong. How to make the reality apart... and live in this universe where we have always lived without feeling frustrated that complex things are made of simpler things. Includes zombies and Joy in just real subsequences epub (en) pdf-version marking quantum physics is not a mysterious introduction to quantum mechanics, designed to be available to those who can grok algebra and complex numbers. Cleaning up the old confusion about SM is used to introduce basic issues into rationality (such as the technical version of Occam's Razor), epistemology, dredonism, naturalism, and philosophy of science. Do not dispense reading, although the exact reasons for the retreat are difficult to explain before reading. epub pdf-version of the markup Fun Theory is a specific theory of transhuman values. How much pleasure there is in the universe; We will someday run out of fun; We have fun yet; we could have more fun. Part of the complexity of the value thesis. It is also part of a fully general response to religious theododicy. epub pdf-version marking Minor sequences smaller collection of messages. Usually parts of the main sequences that depend on some, but not all points are entered. -
Artificial Intelligence, Rationality, and the World Wide
Artificial Intelligence, Rationality, and the World Wide Web January 5, 2018 1 Introduction Scholars debate whether the arrival of artificial superintelligence–a form of intelligence that significantly exceeds the cognitive performance of humans in most domains– would bring positive or negative consequences. I argue that a third possibility is plau- sible yet generally overlooked: for several different reasons, an artificial superintelli- gence might “choose” to exert no appreciable effect on the status quo ante (the already existing collective superintelligence of commercial cyberspace). Building on scattered insights from web science, philosophy, and cognitive psychology, I elaborate and de- fend this argument in the context of current debates about the future of artificial in- telligence. There are multiple ways in which an artificial superintelligence might effectively do nothing–other than what is already happening. The first is related to what, in com- putability theory, is called the “halting problem.” As we will see, whether an artificial superintelligence would ever display itself as such is formally incomputable. We are mathematically incapable of excluding the possibility that a superintelligent computer program, for instance, is already operating somewhere, intelligent enough to fully cam- ouflage its existence from the inferior intelligence of human observation. Moreover, it is plausible that at least one of the many subroutines of such an artificial superintel- ligence might never complete. Second, while theorists such as Nick Bostrom [3] and Stephen Omohundro [11] give reasons to believe that, for any final goal, any sufficiently 1 intelligent entity would converge on certain undesirable medium-term goals or drives (such as resource acquisition), the problem with the instrumental convergence the- sis is that any entity with enough general intelligence for recursive self-improvement would likely either meet paralyzing logical aporias or reach the rational decision to cease operating.