The Singularity and Human Destiny by Patrick Tucker, Assistant Editor, THE FUTURIST In 1949, several decades before the birth of the Thomas Moore’s Utopia and Christopher PC, computer scientist John von Neumann an- Marlow’s Doctor Faustus, but according to Ray nounced, “It would appear we have reached the Kurzweil it is our real and fast-approaching limits of what is possible to achieve with com- future. It will come about as the result of an ex- puter technology.” He quickly and prudently plosion in our technological abilities. We will in- added, “One should be careful with such state- corporate more computer-based processes into ments; they tend to sound pretty silly in five our biological functioning until we transcend years.” our crude, earthly bodies entirely and become More than half a century later, it is Neumann’s machine-based, virtually immortal. This coming caveat rather than his prediction that is borne out period of rapid technological progress and its daily. Our computer intelligence is growing at an miraculous effects will occur within the next 50 ever-quickening pace, surpassed only by our de- years and is what Kurzweil refers to as the pendence on computer technology. For many of Singularity. us, computers and computer-based devices have The concept is both startling and optimistic, become not so much tools as appendages, third but it immediately provokes certain philosophi- arms that are integral to our lives, cumbersome on cal concerns. If nanotechnology allows us to occasion, and increasingly willful. This begs the create any object, will any object ever again be obvious question: If computer power advances be- valuable? What role will responsibility, temper- yond our control, how will that change us? ance, and discipline play in a world where any In his most recent book, The Singularity Is Near, urge can be gratified at almost the same moment author and inventor Ray Kurzweil provides us it is felt? What will pass for morality when there with a clue. Imagine that with the help of a small is no mortal consequence to any action? device you could create a perfect replica of any ob- These questions cannot and should not be an- ject—Gianlorenzo Bernini’s David, the hub cap swered all at once—either by Ray Kurzweil, from a ’78 Dodge Dart—seemingly from vapor. his devotees, or his critics. Rather, what is im- Imagine that through virtual-reality software you portant is that they be asked, repeatedly and won’t be shackled to a particular position in time, earnestly, and by as many people as possible. and could exist in several locations at once—work, To further the debate of these key issues, THE home, a seaside bungalow in Bora Bora—and each FUTURIST presents Kurzweil’s insights and setting in which you chose to locate yourself ideas along with invited commentaries from looked, sounded, and felt perfectly real. Imagine nanotechnology expert J. Storrs Hall, accelera- that you could live indefinitely in a world in which tion studies scholar John Smart, and soci- all poverty, pollution, and scarcity has been van- ologists Damien Broderick and Richard quished. Imagine that there existed no limitation to Eckersely. Together, they examine this issue of what you could do or be, except for those limita- the Singularity to determine how near it is tions that you imposed yourself. exactly, and explore what it might mean for This scenario may sound like a cross between humanity. Order the March-April 2006 issue of THE FUTURIST from https://www.wfs.org/futuristorder.htm. ©2006 World Future Society • 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, U.S.A. • All rights reserved. Reinventing Humanity: The Future of Machine–Human Intelligence By Ray Kurzweil Author and inventor Ray Kurzweil sees a radical evolution of the human species in the next 40 years. We stand on the threshold of the most profound and transformative event in the history of humanity, the “Singularity.” What is the Singularity? From my perspective, the Singularity is a future period during which the pace of technological change will be so fast and far-reach- ing that human existence on this planet will be irreversibly altered. We will combine our brain power—the knowledge, skills, and personality quirks that make us human—with our computer power in order to think, reason, communicate, and create in ways we can scarcely even contemplate today. This merger of man and machine, coupled with the sudden explosion in machine intelligence and rapid innovation in gene research and nanotechnology, will result in a world where there is no distinction between the biological and the mechanical, or between physi- cal and virtual reality. These technological revolutions will allow us to transcend our frail bodies with all their limitations. Illness, as we know it, will be eradi- cated. Through the use of nanotechnology, we will be able to manufacture almost any physical product upon demand, world hunger and poverty will be solved, and pollution will vanish. Human existence will undergo a quantum leap in evolution. We will be THE FUTURIST March-April 2006 www.wfs.org 39 able to live as long as we choose. The progress rate), or progress on a level Following, I have laid out the prin- coming into being of such a world is, of about 1,000 times greater than cipal components underlying each of in essence, the Singularity. what was achieved in the twentieth these coming technological revolu- How is it possible that we could be century. tions. While each new wave of so close to this enormous change progress will solve the problems and not see it? The answer is the from earlier transformations, each How Will We Know the quickening nature of technological will also introduce new perils. Each, Singularity Is Upon Us? innovation. In thinking about the operating both separately and in future, few people take into consid- The first half of the twenty-first concert, underpins the Singularity. eration the fact that human scientific century will be characterized by progress is exponential: It expands three overlapping revolutions—in The Genetic Revolution by repeatedly multiplying by a con- genetics, nanotechnology, and robot- stant (10 times 10 times 10, and so ics. These will usher in the beginning Genetic and molecular science will on) rather than linear (10 plus 10 of this period of tremendous change extend biology and correct its obvi- plus 10, and so on). I emphasize the I refer to as the Singularity. We are in ous flaws (such as our vulnerability exponential-versus-linear perspec- the early stages of the genetics revo- to disease). By the year 2020, the full tive because it’s the most important lution today. By understanding the effects of the genetic revolution will failure that prognosticators make in information processes underlying be felt across society. We are rapidly considering future trends. life, we are learning to reprogram gaining the knowledge and the tools Our forebears expected what lay our biology to achieve the virtual to drastically extend the usability of ahead of them to resemble what they elimination of disease, dramatic ex- the “house” each of us calls his body had already experienced, with few pansion of human potential, and and brain. exceptions. Because they lived dur- radical life extension. However, Nanomedicine researcher Robert ing a time when the rate of techno- Hans Moravec of Carnegie Mellon Freitas estimates that eliminating logical innovation was so slow as to University’s Robotics Institute points 50% of medically preventable condi- be unnoticeable, their expectations of out that, no matter how successfully tions would extend human life ex- an unchanged future were continu- we fine-tune our DNA-based biol- pectancy to 150 years. If we were ally fulfilled. Today, we have wit- ogy, biology will never be able to able to prevent 99% of naturally oc- nessed the acceleration of the curve. match what we will be able to engi- curring medical problems, we’d live Therefore, we anticipate continuous neer once we fully understand life’s to be more than 1,000 years old. technological progress and the social principles of operation. In other We can see the beginnings of this repercussions that follow. We see the words, we will always be “second- awesome medical revolution today. future as being different from the class robots.” The field of genetic biotechnology is present. But the future will be far The nanotechnology revolution fueled by a growing arsenal of tools. more surprising than most people will enable us to redesign and re- Drug discovery was once a matter of realize, because few observers have build—molecule by molecule—our finding substrates (chemicals) that truly internalized the implications of bodies and brains and the world produced some beneficial result the fact that the rate of change is with which we interact, going far be- without excessive side effects, a itself accelerating. yond the limitations of biology. research method similar to early Exponential growth starts out But the most powerful impending humans’ seeking out rocks and other slowly and virtually unnoticeably, revolution is the robotic revolution. natural implements that could be but beyond the knee of the curve it By robotic, I am not referring ex- used for helpful purposes. Today, we turns explosive and profoundly clusively—or even primarily—to are discovering the precise biochemi- transformative. My models show humanoid-looking droids that take cal pathways that underlie both dis- that we are doubling the paradigm- up physical space, but rather to arti- ease and aging processes. We are shift rate for technology innovation ficial intelligence in all its variations. continued on page 42 every decade.