MONARCH Summary brochure.art 31/10/01 9:45 am Page 1

All photographs used by permission Climate Change and Paul Sterry, Nature Photographers Ltd (NPL) E Thompson (NPL) front cover: rocky shore, page 11: azure damselfly page 6: large heath butterfly, Nature Conservation page 8: trailing azalea, British Trust for Ornithology page 9: spanish catchfly, page 1: red-throated diver, page 12: capercaillie, page 7: dunlin, in Britain and Ireland page 14: salt marsh, sea purslane, page 12: nuthatch, page 17: mountain ringlet page 15: oystercatcher MONARCH - Modelling Natural Resource Andrew Cleave (NPL) English Nature front cover: mudflats, page 8: globe flower, Responses to Climate Change page 10: peat bog, page 9: trees, page 15: sabellaria alveolata page 11: female natterjack toad

S.Bisserot (NPL) Duchas, The Heritage Service, Ireland page 13: stalagmites page 13: Burren national park

Sverre Stølen, Norway page 9: Norwegian mugwort

The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) UKCIP was established by the UK Government in 1997, with the aim of providing a framework for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts. Researchers for MONARCH used the UKCIP98 climate scenarios and data sets, as well as the statistical techniques and several computer models. They also considered their findings in the light of other research undertaken under the UKCIP umbrella, particularly the DEFRA Conservation Policy Review and regional scoping studies. These earlier studies were based on expert opinion and literature reviews, but the modelling in MONARCH supports their findings.

Climate Change and Nature Conservation in Britain Research was carried out by and Ireland was funded by the following organisations

Edited by C Cook and P A Harrison and published by the above consortium under the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), November 2001 Further copies available from UKCIP at Union House, 12 St Michael's Street, Oxford OX1 2DU, telephone 01865 432076 or from the website: www.ukcip.org.uk Summary Report Printed on 50% recycled paper MONARCH Summary brochure.art 31/10/01 9:46 am Page 3

MONARCH Summary Report At a glance - winners and losers of climate space MONARCH Summary Report Introduction

At a glance - winners and losers of climate space Introduction

Climate change presents threats for some The study Modelling Natural Resource Responses to Climate species, as well as opportunities for others. Change (MONARCH) evaluates the impacts of climate change on Below is a snapshot of the study findings. wildlife and geomorphological features in Britain and Ireland.

MONTANE HEATH LOWLAND CALCAREOUS GRASSLANDS OTHER WETLANDS AND It identifies the potential implications for climate space will also be vital in This is the most sensitive of all the habitats Changes are likely to be small, but this depends FRESHWATER HABITATS species and habitats in four environments: determining the future distribution of studied. All species lose climate space. on land use and land management responses to Impacts will depend on hydrology as well as terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine. species in Britain and Ireland. The study Winners - none climate change. temperature change, with desiccation in the south and east of Britain and Ireland a particular threat. Winners and losers emerge, including some also indicates gaps in knowledge and the Losers - mountain ringlet (Erebia epiphron)- Winners - dwarf thistle (Cirsium acaulon) faces local extinction yellow-wort (Blackstonia perfoliata) Winners - adder’s tongue (Ophioglossum vulgatum) species threatened with national extinction. implications of the research findings for stiff sedge (Carex bigelowii) common rock-rose (Helianthemum slender-leaved pondweed nummularium) policy makers. dwarf (Salix herbacea) (Potamogeton filiformis) Climate is one of the key determinates of trailing azalea (Loiseleuria procumbens) yellow wagtail (Motacilla flava) turtle dove (Streptopelia turtur) species’ distributions. As our climate changes, The study, commissioned by a consortium SALT MARSHES the distribution patterns of species and the of nature conservation organisations in 1 Losers - none UPLAND HAY MEADOWS Variable species’ response is likely to result in composition of habitats will change. Britain and Ireland, was carried out under Species composition is likely to shift, but other altered species’ composition. Salt marshes may 1 studies show that this depends on farmers’ DROUGHT-PRONE ACID GRASSLAND migrate inland as sea levels rise, depending on If we are to understand the likely changes the UK Climate Impacts Programme responses to climate change. Relatively sensitive, but more species need to coastal protection policies. and so assess the vulnerability of different (UKCIP) - see back page for details. Winners - great burnet (Sanguisorba officinalis) be modelled to increase confidence in the Winners - sea purslane (Atriplex portulacoides) species, as well as their ability to adapt, we habitat response. Losers - globe flower (Trollius europaeus) Losers - flat sedge (Blysmus rufus) need to understand how current patterns of cranesbill (Geranium sylvaticum) Winners - Spanish catchfly (Silene otites) common salt marsh grass Winners/ (Puccinellia maritima) distribution are related to our climate. losers - common storksbill (Erodium cicutarium) This was the starting point for developing UPLAND WOODLAND COASTAL DUNE SLACKS should persist, but the composition of the a bioclimatic classification for Britain and 1 undergrowth is likely to change. Listed winners CALEDONIAN WOODLAND Variable species’ response. Some may dry out in Ireland, demonstrating which parts of Britain the south and east, but species could migrate may all lose ground in the south and east of Sensitive habitat with all species likely to decline and Ireland share the same climate Britain, while gaining elsewhere. from current areas of suitability. north. characteristics now, before using models Winners - hay-scented buckler-fern Losers - twinflower (Linnaea borealis) Winners - marsh helleborine (Epipactis palustris) (Dryopteris aemula) capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) Losers - variegated horsetail to predict future impacts on species. willow tit (Parus montanus) (Equisetum variegatum) nuthatch (Sitta europaea) natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) MONARCH identifies whether a suitable WET HEATHS nightingale (Luscinia megarhynchos) climate is likely to be available, but there is Robust habitat since the dominant species Losers - serrated wintergreen (Orthilia secunda) (cross-leaved heath) shows no change, but may COASTAL ESTUARIES no guarantee that a species will be able to Little be adversely affected by lower water availability Variable response for the effects of sea level rise move to it. Climate will not be the only change - hard fern (Blechnum spicant) in the south and east of Britain and Ireland. on the density of waterbirds. However, numbers factor determining whether the new Winners - marsh gentian (Gentiana pneumonanthe) of all waterbirds increased as a result of 1 increasing area. location is suitable. The ability to move BEECH WOODLAND Losers - none Winners - oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) The dominant species (beech) loses climate space Little and the ecological suitability of the new Red-throated diver (Gavia stellata)- one of the losers in the south and east of Britain, but in the north change - cross-leaved heath (Erica tetralix) Losers - curlew (Numenius arquata) and west the habitat may gain. dunlin (Calidris alpina) Winners/ redshank (Tringa totanus) PEAT BOGS losers - beech (Fagus sylvatica) Species which are currently widespread show little Little OTHER SPECIES change, but some elements of this habitat are change - yew () sensitive, with some loss of suitable climate space Winners - large skipper (Ochlodes venata) sanicle (Sanicula europaea) in the south and east of Britain and Ireland. azure damselfly (Coenagrion puella) Winners - white-beaked sedge (Rhynchospora alba) Losers - Norwegian mugwort (Artemesia norvegica) bog myrtle (Myrica gale) - faces extinction sphagnum moss (Sphagnum papillosum) red-throated diver (Gavia stellata) Losers - large heath (Coenonympha tullia) 1 Habitats which do not occur in Ireland. cloudberry (Rubus chamaemorus)

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MONARCH Summary Report A changing climate MONARCH Summary Report A changing climate

A changing climate Change in average annual temperature (°C), with respect to the 1961-90 average, for the four UKCIP98 scenarios (Hulme & Jenkins, 1998)

Nobody can be absolutely sure how the climate will alter over the 2020s 2050s 2080s coming decades. But the world’s leading climate scientists, grouped 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E under the banner of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 60N 60N +0.4 +0.7 +0.9 Change (IPCC), believe that global average temperatures will rise by 57N 57N Low between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees centigrade over the current century. +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 54N 54N +0.5 +0.5 +0.6 +0.8 +0.8 +0.9 +1.0 +1.1 +1.1 Uncertainty arises in projections of future climate • Increases in winter rainfall everywhere, but a 51N 51N because we don’t yet know how society will decrease in summer rainfall in southern England +0.6 +0.9 +1.3 respond to the threat posed by climate change. of as much as 22 per cent by the 2050s. Annual But, however swiftly and dramatically we respond, mean • Higher evaporation rates that will affect water temperature some climate change is now inevitable. 60N 60N availability, particularly in the south east of England. change (oC) Climate change will not be the same everywhere. • Sea level rise of as much as 78 centimetres by Apart from raising average temperatures, it will have +0.8 +1.2 +1.5 the 2050s in the south east of England and 57N 57N numerous other effects on our day-to-day weather, southern Ireland, but less in the north west of 3 including increases and decreases in rainfall and Medium-low Britain and Ireland. +0.8 +1.3 +1.6 changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme 54N 54N “Apart from raising climatic phenomena. The climate scenarios provide information on many 2.5 average temperatures, of the climate variables affecting wildlife. However, +0.8 +0.9 +1.0 +1.3 +1.4 +1.5 +1.7 +1.8 +1.9 The MONARCH study has used the UKCIP98 climate quantitative data about some important variables are it will have numerous scenarios developed by the Hadley Centre at the 51N 51N 2 not available in the UKCIP98 scenarios, such as other effects on our Met Office and the Climatic Research Unit at the +1.1 +1.6 +2.2 expected changes in snowfall, extreme weather University of East Anglia to try and predict effects on 1.5 day-to-day weather, such as storms and many marine variables such as species. The study was based on the two most 60N 60N ocean circulation and wave climates. More data will including increases extreme scenarios (termed the Low and High become available with the new UKCIP2002 scenarios. 1 scenarios) to reflect the range of possible outcomes. and decreases in +1.1 +1.6 +2.3 rainfall and changes When the scenarios were produced, it was not 57N 57N possible to say which scenario was more likely. 0.5 Medium-high in the frequency and +1.1 +1.7 +2.5 New climate scenarios, due for publication in 2002, 54N 54N intensity of extreme based on the revised IPCC projections indicate 0 climatic phenomena”. temperatures may be higher still. These new +1.1 +1.2 +1.3 +1.8 +1.9 +2.0 +2.5 +2.7 +2.8 scenarios will need to be taken into consideration in 51N 51N future research. +1.4 +2.3 +3.2 The UKCIP98 scenarios suggest that Britain and

Ireland will experience: 60N 60N • Temperature increases of between 0.4 and 1.6 degrees centigrade by the 2020s and 0.7 to 2.6 +1.2 +1.9 +2.6 degrees centigrade by the 2050s; 57N 57N High +1.2 +2.0 +2.8 54N 54N +1.2 +1.3 +1.4 +2.1 +2.2 +2.3 +2.8 +3.0 +3.2

51N 51N +1.6 +2.6 +3.6

9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E

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MONARCH Summary Report What the study entailed MONARCH Summary Report What the study entailed

What the study entailed Present and future climate space, based on the UKCIP 98 High scenarios for 2020s and 2050s.

Bioclimatic classification Each class was characterised by active landscape These diagrams show two species, the large heath butterfly and dwarf willow, that are potential losers of climate space and two that could gain processes - its geomorphology - and by designated climate space, the Spanish catchfly and the nuthatch. Researchers used the statistical techniques of principal conservation sites and habitats of conservation components analysis and hierarchical clustering to interest. Within each class, a range of dominant, divide Britain and Ireland into 21 bioclimatic classes, threatened and climatically sensitive species was each with their own climate characteristics of identified to study with impact models. Six biological importance. An initial 89 bioclimatic landscape types affected by geomorphological variables, chosen to reflect the key climatic variables of processes were also selected for further study, with species distribution, were reduced to the seven 2 The SPECIES model was originally karst, the distinctive network of caves and sink variables that best explain the bioclimatic variation developed as part of a jointly funded holes, being chosen as an example of a sensitive project between DEFRA and UKWIR: across Britain and Ireland. The first four were found to “Regional climate change impact and terrestrial habitat. For the coastal environment, five response studies in East Anglia and be the most important in distinguishing between the North West England (RegIS)” coastal habitats of conservation concern were . different classes: these were related to rainfall, chosen, along with two estuaries for detailed temperature, wind speed and sunshine. modelling of impacts on wading birds. The classes ranged from the coldest in the Cairngorm mountains, to the warmest in south west Impact models England and Wales and along the coast of southern Impacts of climate change on the geographical and eastern England; from the wettest in western distribution of 50 species associated with 12 habitats Scotland to the driest in southern, eastern and of conservation concern were investigated using the central England and eastern Wales; and from the SPECIES (Spatial Estimator of the Climate Impacts on windiest in Snowdonia and Skye to the least windy the Envelope of Species) model, originally developed in central Ireland (see map). under RegIS2, a complementary study in the UKCIP framework. SPECIES uses a complex computer program (neural network) to characterise the currently Large heath butterfly Dwarf willow suitable climate space for a species and to estimate current climate space current climate space likely changes in its spatial distribution by the 2050s. 2020’s climate space 2020’s climate space This way it is possible to see how the climate space 2050’s climate space 2050’s climate space for individual species could contract, expand or shift as the climate changes. Changing patterns of rainfall are especially important for freshwater environments, such as wetlands. Here the SPECIES model was supplemented by water availability and wetlands models to investigate impacts on moisture sensitive plants and amphibians. In coastal environments, impacts on the density and numbers of key estuarine birds were investigated using models based on estuary shape (estimated from high precision topographical maps and predictions of sea level rise) and climate variables. Conceptual models were also developed to explore the geomorphological sensitivity of coastal sand dunes, salt marshes, vegetated shingle ridges, seagrass beds and rocky coastal platforms to climate change. In marine environments, a range of benthic ecosystems were studied to investigate their sensitivity to climate change through changes in sea level, sea surface temperature and other variables. Research on consequences for marine habitats is not Spanish catchfly Nuthatch far advanced, so the method involved building up current climate space current climate space Each colour represents a different class sharing bioclimatic characteristics. baseline information for key marine features and 2020’s climate space 2020’s climate space The diagram illustrates clearly the greater diversity of bioclimate in the north 2050’s climate space 2050’s climate space of England, Scotland, Wales and parts of Ireland. species via literature reviews and conceptual models. 4 5 MONARCH Summary brochure.art 31/10/01 9:47 am Page 6

MONARCH Summary Report Key findings MONARCH Summary Report Key findings

Key findings 3 Speleotherms are consolidated cave • Sensitive karst features such as tufas, dunlin (Calidris alpina). In some cases changes in sediments such as stalagmites. Tufa are speleotherms and turloughs are likely to be most estuary extent may be sufficient to compensate freshwater carbonate sediments that form around springs and waterfalls. Turloughs clearly affected by climate change. The impacts of for this reduction in quality. are seasonal lakes. climate change on geomorphological processes • Fluctuations of wader numbers on individual Climate change appears to present threats for some species, will probably be less noticeable than effects from estuaries can be partly explained by inter-annual local human activities, although there may be variation in winter weather conditions. Climate as well as opportunities for others. synergistic associations between the two. change is likely to lead to a continued northward and eastward shift in the distribution of wader Freshwater habitats While temperature, rainfall, rates of evaporation and an unusual response with a reduction in climate populations in Britain and Ireland. As winters sea level rise are critical factors in understanding the space in current areas of suitability, but a potential • Water availability (rainfall minus beyond Britain and Ireland become milder, a greater impact of climate change on species, there are other gain in southern England. evapotranspiration) is likely to increase by up to proportion of the East Atlantic Flyway populations significant factors where data is not yet available. 60 mm in winter (December to February) of some species of wader may over-winter further • The responses of bird species to climate change throughout Britain and Ireland. This could lead to north and east on the continent of Europe. These include changes in the intensity of rainfall are also likely to be highly variable. Some, such as increased ponding and flooding. Raised bogs, wet • Increases in sea level will encourage erosion of events, the numbers of days with snow, maximum the capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus)and red- heaths and coastal dune slacks may benefit. many salt marsh, sand dune and vegetated wind speed and direction, storminess and any throated diver (Gavia stellata), could decline while In summer (June to August), there is likely to be a shingle areas, especially if coupled with increases alterations in ocean circulation. Despite these others, such as turtle dove (Streptopelia turtur), small increase in water availability in north west in storm activity. Rocky coastal platforms will be remaining uncertainties, we can reach some yellow wagtail (Motacilla flava)and reed warbler Ireland and north west Scotland, little change in affected in geomorphological terms by climate tentative conclusions about the future distribution of (Acrocephalus scirpaceus), may expand their the area immediately south east of these regions, change only where rock is soft and erodible. species in Britain and Ireland. ranges. Several bird species, including willow tit and a decrease elsewhere. This is likely to be most Climate change is likely to introduce an additional (Parus montanus), nightingale (Luscinia severe (up to 110 mm decrease) in south east Terrestrial habitats stress on these coastal habitats, especially within megarhynchos) and nuthatch (Sitta europaea), England. This reduced water availability would the southern part of Britain and Ireland where the • In general, species with northerly distributions will showed a positive response to moderate climate lead to the drying of wetland habitats with highest rises in sea level are predicted to occur. lose suitable climate space in Britain and Ireland. change (Low scenarios)but with severe climate consequent changes in their species composition. The species in this category are amongst the most change (High scenarios)their distributions may • Sensitive benthic habitats (especially those within • Peat bogs, wet heaths, coastal dune slacks, vulnerable, because these losses are likely to be either contract significantly or become more the intertidal and shallow subtidal zones) will be drought-prone acid grassland and beech realised and will lead to fragmented habitats and fragmented in southern England. affected most severely by sea level rise around decreased populations. Balanced against this are woodland could be adversely affected by the • The collective results for species provide an the southern coasts of Britain and Ireland. species with more southerly distributions that lower water availability in south east England and indication of the response of habitats. Montane Increases in sea surface temperatures will affect could expand their climate space. For these to a lesser extent south east Ireland. Some chalk heaths and to a lesser extent upland hay species which currently occur at the extremes of species the issue is their ability to migrate and grassland species predicted to lose suitable meadows and pine woodland are seen as being their temperature tolerance range. This will the availability of suitable habitat, as vulnerability climate space in the south east could be further vulnerable to climate change. Upland oak adversely affect Modiolus modiolus(a boreal can occur where there will be little or no overlap affected by decreased water availability. woodland, beech woodland and peat bogs could species which reaches its southerly limit around between the current and future distribution. also be susceptible due to species’ losses in • A local-scale hydrological model run for a site in Britain) and benefit Sabellaria alveolatareefs. • The responses of plants are highly variable, southern and eastern England. The species’ East Anglia shows similar decreases in summer Maerl beds, Sabellaria spinulosareefs and Serpula vermicularis illustrating the individualistic response of species. response in other habitats was much more water levels and this could result in the three reefs are likely to be negatively Those with a northern distribution, such as globe variable and this may lead to changes in the modelled species, the great burnet (Sanguisorba affected by any increases in storm activity. officinalis) flower (Trollius europaeus)and trailing azalea species’ composition of habitats. , adder’s tongue (Ophioglossum vulgatum) Where habitats are already stressed by local (Loiseleuria procumbens), could decline while and the celery-leaved buttercup (Ranunculus human impacts and natural events, the impacts of scleratus) those with a southern distribution, such as Karst landscapes , experiencing suitable future climate space, climate change are likely to be felt more strongly. sea purslane (Atriplex portulacoides)and white- but unfavourable hydrological conditions. • Karst landscapes are made up of distinctive beaked sedge (Rhynchospora alba)could expand. Large heath butterfly limestone outcrops and caves. In four karst case Coastal and marine habitats (Coenonympha tullia) • As with plants, the insects with a northern study sites, the Burren (Co. Clare), the Yorkshire distribution, such as the mountain ringlet (Erebia Dales, the Cuilcagh karst (Co. Fermanagh) and • Rising sea levels may affect the shape of epiphron) and large heath (Coenonympha tullia) Assynt karst (Scotland), mean annual water estuaries generally, but particularly those in the butterflies, could lose suitable climate space, while availability (rainfall minus evapotranspiration) is south east of Britain and Ireland and England due those with a southern distribution, the azure predicted to rise, resulting in a modest increase to land movement since the end of the last ice damselfly (Coenagrion puella)and the large (less than 10%) in dissolution rates. This will age. Estuary morphology largely determines skipper butterfly (Ochlodes venata), could gain it. produce increased erosion of surface areas, and intertidal sediments that in turn influence the The amphibians showed a variable response with increased availability of dissolved calcium carbonate abundance and availability of the invertebrate the natterjack toad (Bufo calamita)having a loss of for formation of speleotherms and tufa deposits3. prey of waterbirds. More extensive intertidal flats suitable climate space, but a gain under the 2050s In the Mendip Hills, where mean annual water are likely to become sandier, improving the High scenario and the great crested newt (Triturus availability is predicted to decrease, dissolution habitat quality for species such as oystercatcher cristatus) showing little change. The one mammal rates will slow down by as much as 54%. (Haematopus ostralegus)but reducing it for studied, the red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris), showed species such as redshank (Tringa totanus)and Dunlin (Calidris alpina)

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MONARCH Summary Report Terrestrial and freshwater habitats MONARCH Summary Report Terrestrial and freshwater habitats

Terrestrial and freshwater habitats perennial found mainly in humid valleys and ravines It may be possible to maintain the dominant species of the Scottish Highlands. It will probably become in this habitat, but its total species composition is restricted to a few upland locations in the far north. likely to change. A threatened species, twinflower A third, the hard fern (Blechnum spicant)is likely to (Linnaea borealis)is predicted to lose a significant The impacts of climate change on the distribution of suitable show little change. proportion of its currently suitable climate space by the 2050s High scenario. climate space were modelled for 33 plant, four insect, two Beech woodlands Wet heath and acid grassland amphibian, one mammal and 10 bird species associated with The beech woodlands of southern and eastern England and south Wales could be major casualties While these habitats may cover the same amount of 12 habitats of conservation concern. Responses were highly of climate change. By the 2050s, their climate space land in the future, they may have to shift their may be lost in East Anglia and parts of southern location in response to climate change. Wet heaths variable, with some of each category losing and some England. In theory, the tree could gain ground may expand in Ireland and in some northern and further north, across central England and Wales and western areas of Britain where increased winter gaining climate space. Beech trees into Scotland. But tree migration is slow and it is far rainfall waterlogs formerly dry heath. But in south from clear that this will happen. Other research has east England wet heaths could dry out and revert to shown that beech (Fagus sylvatica)is drought- dry heath. Cross-leaved heath (Erica tetralix), which Impacts on flora Upland hay meadows sensitive, and would be expected to die back as is currently found throughout Britain, may have to soils become drier in the summer. The departure of give ground to more suitable species, such as bell Upland hay meadows are found on the better soils Montane heaths the beech may be hastened by the invasion of more heather (Erica cinerea). Overall, populations of in the higher parts of England, Wales and Scotland. drought-tolerant tree species such as oaks. The species such as cross-leaved heath and its rarer Montane heaths occur high in the windswept Their survival will depend crucially on how farmers similarly distributed yew tree (Taxus baccata)is also associate marsh gentian (Gentiana pneumonanthe) mountains of Scotland, with outposts in the respond to climate change and other pressures. more resistant to drought and model results show are likely to remain stable in Britain. uplands of northern England, Wales and Ireland. But even where current management regimes that it could expand its range. Other species found Their vegetation includes dwarf willow (Salix persist, climate change will almost certainly cause As wet heaths dry up in south east England, they in the under-storey of beech , such as sanicle herbacea) , along with lichens, mosses, sedges and substantial shifts in species composition. are likely to be replaced by an expansion of the (Sanicula europaea)could fare better, though other herbs. Though usually remote from human region’s acid grasslands. But some species common Among typical meadow species, wood cranesbill work casts doubt on the sanicle’s ability to flower habitation, montane heaths are already under threat on these grasslands may disappear as droughts (Geranium sylvaticum), a pretty purple meadow plant, properly in drought conditions. from human activities, with many species restricted intensify. The common storksbill (Erodium could disappear from Exmoor and much of its lower by fires, grazing, human feet and acid rain. cicutarium) , which currently grows in lowland terrain elsewhere in England and Wales. And the rare Chalk grasslands Montane heaths are also the most sensitive to England and Wales, is likely to begin to find much of globe flower (Trollius europaeus)shows a decline in climate change of all the habitats analysed. Calcareous grasslands on well-drained chalk and the east coast, even as far north as Scotland, so climate space and other research suggests it may also Under the various climate change scenarios, all limestone soils are one of the distinctive landscapes warm and dry that its seeds will not germinate. prove susceptible to the disappearance of the montane heath species show a loss of climate space. of lowland England and parts of Wales and Ireland. Spanish catchfly (Silene otites)however is common Chiastochetaflies that are vital to its pollination. But as soils dry out in summer, some plants, such as in mainland Europe, though in Britain it is currently But as these species lose out, the herb great burnet The dwarf willow (Salix herbacea)will probably the dwarf thistle (Cirsium acaulon), could become confined to the dry grasslands of Norfolk and (Sanguisorba officinalis)could benefit from climate disappear from Wales and most of England and unviable. Others, such as the yellow-wort (Blackstonia Suffolk. But as south-eastern England warms and change, expanding its climate space all the way to the Ireland by the 2050s, remaining largely in the perfoliata) and common rock-rose (Helianthemum dries it could spread, first south into Essex and the Scottish Highlands, as far as the Shetlands and Orkneys. Grampians and Highlands of Scotland. Much the nummularium) may fare better if they can find their Thames Valley, and by the 2050s north towards the same is likely to happen to the trailing azalea way north to newly available climate space. Further Humber estuary and west through the Midlands. Upland oak woodlands (Loiseleuria procumbens). This is expected to be modelling work is required to increase confidence in progressively lost from the southern Pennines, the Oak woodlands occupy many of the poorer soils and predictions for a wider range of species. Trailing azalea (Loiseleuria procumbens) Lake District and North York Moors and even steeper slopes of the upland north and west of perhaps the Cheviots by the end of the 2020s, Britain and Ireland. Oaks themselves may grow Native pine woodland followed by the Southern Uplands of Scotland and vigorously enough under warmer conditions, and may Native mixed woodland, dominated by pine, used to its few remaining Irish outposts by the 2050s. colonise mountain sides that are currently too cold for be found over large areas of the Scottish Highlands, them. But the other vegetation of these woodlands is A similar response is expected from the sedge Carex but it has been reduced to about 1% of its former likely to suffer seriously as soils dry out in summer. bigelowii , which is expected to disappear from the range and is now only found in the Grampians and Pennines, Snowdonia and Macgillycuddy’s Reeks Of three forest plants studied, two are likely to lose the northern and western Highlands of Scotland. (Co. Kerry). But the prognosis for this species is far climate space in more southern areas. One is the Norwegian mugwort Climate change could lead to the spread of Scots pine (Artemesia norvegica) from clear because, while other research shows that hay-scented buckler-fern (Dryopteris aemula), which (Pinus sylvestris)to higher altitudes, aided by an warmer temperatures may be damaging for the is currently found, albeit in small numbers, from the increased growth rate. It could, however, be adversely plant’s root growth, the extra warmth could, Weald in Kent to the Hebrides and western Ireland. affected by increased windthrow, as the less frozen according to studies in Iceland and Sweden, It is likely to disappear from the south and east, soils provide less anchorage, loss of biomass and

Globe flower (Trollius europaeus) encourage its fruit to grow larger, so improving though it may prosper on higher ground in the regeneration ability through increased temperatures reproductive success. Pennines and Lake District. The other is serrated and competition from less cold tolerant species. Spanish catchfly (Silene otites) wintergreen (Orthilia secunda), a rare creeping

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MONARCH Summary Report Terrestrial and freshwater habitats MONARCH Summary Report Terrestrial and freshwater habitats

Peat bogs But it will only be wetter throughout the year in the Impacts on fauna species of conservation concern, but conservation far north west of Scotland and Ireland. The timing of action won’t be possible if its climate space entirely Peat bogs are among Europe’s rarest and most Amphibians rainfall will be important in many wetlands in these disappears from Britain, as the models predict threatened habitats. There are several types of peat areas. Standing water can be essential in winter, but The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita)is an for the 2050s. bog, each with characteristic species. Britain and lethal in spring or summer. Much fenland vegetation increasingly rare animal listed under the British Ireland hold a significant proportion of the world’s requires standing water, but if it stands too long, Wildlife and Countryside Act and similarly protected Birds total area of certain types of bogs. Summer drought some species will die. So extra summer rainfall could in Ireland. It lives among sand dunes, grazing is likely to dry out the few remaining bogs in Like insects, many birds should find little difficulty in be damaging even to wetlands. marshes, lowland heaths and salt marshes in south southern and central England, and affect those in Female natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) accommodating themselves to shifting climatic east England, Merseyside, Cumbria and County south east Ireland. But this will be counterbalanced In much of Britain and Ireland, there is likely to be zones. However, despite being mobile, many birds Kerry in south west Ireland. Its long-term decline has by better conditions for bog growth further north, significantly less rain than at present in summer. display strong associations with particular habitat been arrested in the last 30 years by protecting its thanks to increased rainfall, particularly in winter. This will be exacerbated by increased rates of types that provide food and suitable breeding and habitat from destruction. But all that could be evaporation in the warmer air. So the amount of wintering conditions. They could move; but will Suitable climatic conditions will persist for some undermined by climate change. water available across most of England and south they? Many birds living in Britain have not moved types of peat bog, but the species composition of east Ireland will in all probability be substantially The species is vulnerable to changes of both to similar climatic areas in Ireland, perhaps through the plant communities may well change. The less than today between March and October. temperature and wetness. Its reproductive activity an inability to cross the Irish Sea. dominant vegetation of most bogs is sphagnum The result is likely to be a widespread desiccation of and early development both depend on abundant moss, of which there are many species. The study The species’ predicted responses to climate change many wetland habitats. This will be most severe in moisture. In sand dunes, it relies on temporary pools investigated the likely future extent of Sphagnum showed marked differences, with the capercaillie south east England. to breed. But, particularly in south east England, papillosum . Its climate space is likely to remain (Tetrao urogallus)being the most vulnerable. these pools may generally disappear earlier in the and possibly enlarge across Britain and Ireland. For wetland habitats, modelling from SPECIES needs The capercaillie lives today in patches of cold year. Climate scenarios for the 2020s show the to be combined with the results of a hydrological climate space among Scottish Highland conifer A similar response is seen for other bog species species’ climate space disappearing in most of its model in order to the true effects of climate plantations and Caledonian pinewood. The bird is such as bog myrtle (Myrica gale)and white-beaked current habitats. By the 2050s, a range of new change on species. For instance, adder’s tongue already in serious decline and is predicted to lose sedge (Rhynchospora alba). But more northern climate spaces may have emerged - for instance in (Ophioglossum vulgatum)and celery-leaved 99% of its remaining climate space by the 2050s species will probably lose a significant part of their the Midlands, south west England and south Wales. buttercup (Ranunculus scleratus)are projected under under the High scenario. current distribution. One such loser is likely to be the However, the long intervening period of unsuitable the SPECIES model to expand their ranges from parts cloudberry (Rubus chamaemorus), which may find climate may mean the natterjack toad is unable to Likewise, the red-throated diver (Gavia stellata) of England to cover the whole of Britain and Ireland conditions too warm and could disappear entirely claim this new territory. Similarly rare is the great breeds only in northern Scotland and in a few by the 2050s. But falling water levels and drought from Ireland and Wales, most of England and much crested newt (Triturus cristatus), but modelling of its locations in the north west of Ireland. Although in summer could instead reduce their ranges. of south and east Scotland. Another loser could climate space suggests little change. most areas of current suitability show little change, include bog rosemary (Andromeda perfolia). The buttercup, in particular, could become rarer. a loss of climate space is predicted for Orkney under Even more vulnerable may be the slender-leaved Insects the 2050s High scenario, where its population is currently stable. Large numbers over-winter on the pondweed (Potamogeton filiformis), an aquatic Many insects can expect to do well as temperatures coasts of Britain and Ireland, where its preferred plant that is currently found in many Irish lakes, warm: feeding better, living longer and reproducing shallow inshore waters and sandy bays could be such as Lough Neagh and Lough Ree, and in faster. Being able to fly, they are more likely to find affected by sea level rise. Anglesey and around the Scottish coast. By the their way to potential new climate space than 2050s, none of these areas are expected to have plants. Typical is the butterfly known as the large A third northern bird, the snow bunting suitable climates. This pondweed should have skipper (Ochlodes venata). It is found throughout (Plectrophenax nivalis), breeds mainly in the climate space on a few mountain sides in Scotland England and Wales, but is absent from Ireland and Grampians and north west Highlands of Scotland on and northern England, but all are distant from its only inhabits south west Scotland. It will probably the highest parts of the mountains near late-lying current habitats. invade most of Ireland by the 2050s and in Scotland snow beds, which ensure a plentiful supply of it is likely to spread through the Central Valley and insects as the snow melts through the summer. Impacts on other plant species up the east coast. Suitable climate space is centred on the western Peat bog Highlands under all scenarios. However, these results Some plant species are so rare they face special Likewise the azure damselfly (Coenagrion puella), do not take account of possible changes in snow survival problems. The study investigated the likely fate already found throughout England and Wales, Wetlands cover. If the snow disappears, then food could be in of the Norwegian mugwort (Artemesia norvegica),an southern Scotland and much of Ireland, will by the short supply, so breeding snow buntings could Wetland habitats are home to many rare plants in Arctic plant that is globally rare and found in Britain 2050s have the potential to spread everywhere else become rarer as they retreat further north to breed. Britain and Ireland. Many wetland species are likely and Ireland only on the summits of three northern except the Cairngorms and north west Scotland. Over-wintering snow buntings presently have a to be at risk as climate change produces more Scottish mountains. None of these are likely to remain Studies have shown it can disperse by almost a much greater range and can be found around the extreme weather and greater seasonal variation in suitable habitats under climate change. One other kilometre a year. rainfall, as well as enhanced summer mountain top may become climatically suitable for the coasts of Britain and Ireland, but their presence too evapotranspiration. For most of Britain and Ireland, species in the 2050s. However it does not overlap with In contrast, the mountain ringlet (Erebia epiphron), might decline if over-wintering conditions further extra rainfall is expected to ensure more water is its current distribution. So the mugwort, in its current which is currently found only in a few locations in north become less severe. available in winter — sometimes causing flooding. mountain location, has no natural way to get to its the Lake District and Scotland, is likely to become This is good news for lakes, bogs, wet heaths and for potential home. extinct in Britain. This butterfly is already listed vegetation preferring wet areas amid coastal dunes. Azure damselfly (Coenagrion puella) under the British Wildlife and Countryside Act as a

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MONARCH Summary Report Terrestrial and freshwater habitats MONARCH Summary Report Terrestrial and freshwater habitats

Birds from southern England should do best. The reed seeds of weeds on which it feeds or to changes in Impacts on karst landscapes warbler (Acrocephalus scirpaceus)should prosper as weather conditions on its wintering grounds. It is Climate change will also affect nature conservation its climate space expands into south west England, unclear whether improvements in climatic conditions areas through impacts on geomorphological coastal Wales, northern England, southern and central will be sufficient to halt or reverse the current trend. processes which in turn may trigger a whole range Scotland and Ireland. Indeed it has recently begun to The yellow wagtail (Motacilla flava)is another long- of ecological impacts. The study looked at the breed regularly in Scotland and Ireland. distance migrant with a declining population in prognosis for karst scenery - the distinctive Nuthatch (Sitta europaea) The nuthatch (Sitta europaea)is already expanding Britain. Its breeding range is contracting into a core networks of caves and sink holes that characterise its range, but has similar potential to spread even area of the East Midlands, perhaps because of the limestone areas. further north and west, even as far as Ireland and loss of grassland elsewhere. Again, its climate space One of England’s largest and most treasured karst the Outer Hebrides by the 2050s under the High is predicted to expand in the coming decades in systems is the Mendip Hills of Somerset. It faces scenario. But it may not get that far because of its southern England and Wales, including a substantial possibly major changes in the processes that mould sedentary behaviour. It is also a woodland species, expansion in Ireland by the 2050s under the High its distinctive features, such as cave stalagmites and and it is unclear whether there would be sufficient scenario, but it is not clear whether that will be stalactites. These are formed by redeposition of mature broadleaf woodland to support populations enough to reverse its decline. calcium carbonate dissolved from limestone. If in many parts of Ireland. Under the High scenarios, Similarly, the nightingale (Luscinia megarhynchos)is dissolution rates decline then there will be less its climate space is also predicted to retract currently in a slight overall decline, possibly due to a calcium carbonate available to form stalagmites markedly in south east England and around the reduction in habitat quality on its breeding or and stalactites. south coast, though the large populations in the wintering grounds. The study indicates that south and west of England and Wales are likely to The Mendip Hills contain 200 caves, including moderate or short term changes to climate will remain. Milder winters are likely to benefit this the famous Wookey Hole, many of them rich in Cave stalagmites benefit the nightingale in Britain. Its response will species as its breeding density is often linked to such features. depend on what is currently affecting its decline and winter food supplies. Recent monitoring by the the interaction between these factors and climate. The hills that supply water to the cave systems are British Trust for Ornithology has shown it is now Though long-distance migrants, the birds show expected to receive much less rainfall in future. laying its eggs significantly earlier, and fledging strong individual fidelity to breeding sites. This And higher temperatures will likely also increase more chicks from the nest. fidelity may limit its tendency to colonise coastal evaporation rates. The combined effect can be “The capercaillie is Similarly, the willow tit (Parus montanus)may need south west England, Wales and Ireland - all expected to reduce the amount of water running to move north in Britain. While modest changes in predicted to offer suitable climate under the High through the caves, and with it the rate at which predicted to lose climate will have little effect on the potential climate scenarios. And in the longer term, soils in its those waters dissolve limestone - by as much as 99% of its remaining space for the willow tit, under the High scenario it heartland, south east England, may dry out so much 54% in some scenarios. The result will be a climate space by would need to abandon its homes in the broadleaf that the insects on which it feeds disappear, having considerable reduction in the formation of new woodlands of southern and central England and severe impacts on the population. limestone features. Moreover, existing features, the 2050s”. Wales as they become hotter and drier. Its climate which are constantly dissolved and recreated, will space moves to northern Wales, central Scotland become more vulnerable and may decay. and the Borders. However, it may be unable to Modest increases in dissolution rates are predicted realise these northward expansions in its distribution for the other important karst landscapes studied as it is a resident, sedentary species and adults tend (the Yorkshire Dales in England, Assynt in Scotland, to defend the same areas in consecutive years. and the Burren and Cuilcagh karst areas in Ireland). Burren National Park, Co. Clare, Ireland Further, in northern Scotland it may find that the However, drier summers may dry up turloughs, the heavily grazed woodlands offer little of the dead standing seasonal lakes that form on the limestone wood that willow tits need for nesting. pavements of Ireland, including the Burren in The turtle dove (Streptopelia turtur)is a long- County Clare. This will threaten their many rare distance migrant that could spread west into south plants, such as the fen violet (Viola persicifolia). west England, Wales and Ireland. But the bird is in steep decline in Britain today. The reasons are not clear but are probably connected to loss of the Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus)

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MONARCH Summary Report Coastal and marine habitats MONARCH Summary Report Coastal and marine habitats

Coastal and marine habitats Other species were less sensitive to climate change. Modiolus modiolus, a horse mussel, forms reefs of Britain and Ireland’s estuaries will only be able to shells and sand in the cold waters off the north coast hold the predicted increased number of waders if of Britain. Warming may push it into a northerly the effects of climate change on their northerly retreat. Its place could be taken in many waters by Coastal and marine habitats face the twin influences of climate breeding grounds do not adversely affect the Sabellaria alveolata, a marine worm that makes reefs populations of these birds. of hard sand tubes within which it lives. This species change and rising sea levels. The interplay between the two makes is found at the extreme low-water mark in southern Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) Coastal ecosystems can be expected to retreat and western waters off England and Ireland. assessing the likely future state of habitats and their species complex. inland, at least partially compensating for sea level It is cold-water sensitive. Many populations were rise. Salt marshes that are inundated at their wiped out during the very cold winter of 1962-63. seaward boundary could reform further up the So warming should encourage it to spread north, beach. But along most of the coasts of Britain and Impacts on coastal species Rising sea levels provided it can find suitable hard substrate. Ireland, sea defences designed to protect farmland Many coastal species face similar challenges of Future sea level rise is also likely to affect many and human settlements will impede this retreat Maerl beds are accumulations of calcareous altered climatic space to those on dry land. coastal species. Sea levels will rise least in western (commonly termed coastal squeeze). They both block seaweeds. They could see a similar species Among plants, the common salt-marsh grass Scotland and north west Ireland, where the land is off natural retreat and deprive the coastal waters of movement as reefs. Lithothamnion glaciale, which is (Puccinellia maritima), a pioneering species which is gradually rising as a delayed response to the the sediment from coastal erosion that is necessary currently most abundant on the sea lochs of currently found on the seaward side of salt marshes removal of the weight of the ice caps at the end of to help create new structures such as salt marshes. western Scotland and in the Orkneys and Shetlands, all around the coasts of Britain and Ireland, is the last ice age. Here, the sea is likely to gain up to The likely resulting loss of salt marshes will damage could retreat still further north, while the warm- expected to disappear from south and east England 13 centimetres between now and the 2050s. But in the populations of many wildfowl and some waders, water loving Lithothamnion coralloides, most Salt marsh as it warms. It would depart first from the Thames the south east of England and southern Ireland, such as golden plover (Pluvialis apricaria)and abundant today in Cornwall, advances. estuary and, later from everywhere between the Exe where the land is sinking, sea levels could be 78 lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), by depriving them of But both maerl beds and reefs may suffer from estuary in Devon to the Humber. centimetres higher by the 2050s. habitat used for feeding and breeding. increases in storminess around our shores. The reefs This could have a significant damaging effect on the Rising sea levels will cause widespread erosion of If defences are maintained and reinforced, the losses of the ross worm (Sabellaria spinulosa), which occur overall formation of salt marshes in these areas. coastal habitats. The salt marshes of Essex, such as of salt marshes could be substantial in many places. only in small patches around the shores of Britain, “With climate Another salt marsh species, flat sedge (Blysmus the Colne estuary and north Kent in particular, are But if the response to the rising waters for coastal may be especially vulnerable. Similarly, storms will rufus) change many , is predicted to lose climate space. Its current expected to contract as sea levels rise. Other defence management is to allow a retreat of coastal also affect the reefs created by another worm, northern distribution extends as far south as Wales vulnerable coastal habitats include the marshes and defences, salt marshes could colonise new areas. Serpula vermicularis, which is found in a few waterbirds may and the Humber, but by the 2050s it could be sand dunes of north Norfolk and the vegetated There is a practical case for doing this. Salt marshes locations in Scotland and Ireland. winter further to restricted to the coastline north of Aberdeen and shingle beds at Dungeness in Kent and elsewhere are widely regarded as an effective natural sea the north and east Glasgow, and lost entirely from Ireland. along the coast of southern England. defence, and so could be encouraged as part of an By contrast, sea purslane (Atriplex portulacoides)found Climate change and sea level rise could combine to integrated coastal defence policy. of Europe”. throughout salt marshes, could expand up the east and undermine these fragile, but environmentally west coasts of Scotland and around the coast of extremely valuable, coastal habitats in other ways Impact on marine habitats Ireland. Some dune species such as marsh helleborine too. For instance, by submerging sand flats in the The marine environment will be warmed as the climate (Epipactis palustris)are likely also to expand their range inter-tidal zone, rising tides could deprive sand alters. But, like coastal ecosystems, it may be influenced northwards, while variegated horsetail (Equisetum dunes of the wind-borne sand that maintains their by other knock-on effects of climate change, such as variegatum) could lose suitable climate space. structure and prevents them being washed or blown rising sea levels, changes in local and global ocean away. The disappearance of moisture from the dunes Internationally important populations of wading circulation patterns, the supply of nutrients and will deprive them of the vegetation that anchors birds that over-winter principally on the estuaries sediment from the land, and changes in waves and them. And by altering the shape of many estuaries, Sand tubes made by the marine worm, Sabellaria alveolata and non-estuarine coasts of Britain and Ireland are storminess. Research on such consequences is not far rising tides will interfere with the marine processes already being affected by climate change. Since the advanced, so there is greater uncertainty about the that cycle sediment and maintain salt marshes, and early 1980s, the distributions of six of the seven impact of climate change below the waves than on reduce habitat for the invertebrates on which most species of non-estuarine wader studied — including land and at the shoreline. waterbirds feed. ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula), curlew This uncertainty is confounded by a lack of (Numenius arquata)and redshank (Tringa totanus)— As a result of sea level rise, it is predicted that the information about the very varied range of marine have moved northwards and eastwards as winters densities of curlew (Numenius arquata), dunlin flora and fauna of the waters around Britain and have become milder. This will benefit birds that are (Calidris alpina)and redshank (Tringa totanus)would Ireland - particularly those species that occupy the now increasingly wintering on the estuaries of decrease and that the density of oystercatcher sea bed and which, because they are not particularly eastern Britain that tend to be muddier and have (Haematopus ostralegus)would increase on two mobile, may suffer most in a changing environment. higher densities of prey than the sandy west coast case study estuaries (the Deben in Suffolk and the To likely impacts, the study looked at a number estuaries. With climate change many waterbirds may Duddon in Cumbria). And yet the total numbers of of species and the habitats they help create - maerl in future winter further to the north and east of each species of wader that could be held by each beds and reefs. Europe in areas closer to their Continental breeding site is predicted to grow as a result of increasing Sea purslane (Atriplex portulacoides) grounds, currently not available because of their estuary area with sea level rise more than relatively harsh winter climate. compensating for any reduction in densities.

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MONARCH Summary Report Implications of climate change for nature conservation policy and practice MONARCH Summary Report Implications of climate change for nature conservation policy and practice

Implications of climate change for nature conservation policy and practice Policymakers, planners, land users and the public Next steps will also need to be made aware of the need to The next phase of the MONARCH project will create as well as conserve habitats. We may need address some of these research gaps. The models new buffer zones to minimise climate stress on will be downscaled and advanced to enable the This study underlines the scale and scope of likely impacts existing species and to develop new communities. impacts of climate change to be modelled at Ecological “corridors” and stepping stones to allow individual sites. Predictions of the possible future of climate change on wildlife and conservation in the coming species to move between existing protected areas responses of species to climate change will will sometimes be needed. Strategies for the half-century. These changes will need to be matched by incorporate a dispersal component, which enables translocation of species to new climatic space or to the likelihood of species realising their potential ex situ sites such as botanical gardens, will changes in conservation practice; a more forward looking, future distributions to be assessed, and a land use sometimes also be required. component, which enables the availability of flexible and dynamic approach to nature conservation suitable habitat to be examined. Gaps in knowledge The changing distribution of species has important will be required. The study has also identified a number of gaps in implications for habitat composition and, possibly, current knowledge and data. For example, better functioning. The latter element will be explored data are needed for current conditions, particularly at a conceptual level, in the context of the model Existing protected sites will continue as essential These are: meeting international commitments and climatic, soils and habitat data for Ireland, as well outputs, in order to increase our understanding reserves for biodiversity, but a greater emphasis on the national targets, identifying the locations of existing as predictive data for future changes in certain of the impacts of climate change on management of habitats in the countryside and at the and future protected sites, the and techniques aspects of the climate, such as snow, storms, sea ecosystem dynamics. landscape scale will be required, to accommodate of conservation management and the treatment of surface temperatures and ocean circulation. The species’ movements and displacements. non-native species. impact on species of additional carbon dioxide in The integrated outcomes of the models will be the atmosphere also needs to be understood. assessed for a number of case study areas and Existing measures will continue to be important in At the site level, the loss of a species may have policy and management options proposed relating achieving conservation objectives, although a significant implications for achieving existing Also, it is often not clear which are the key climatic to conservation objectives. number of challenges to both policy and practice conservation commitments, particularly if the species variables that will determine the “climate space” also need to be addressed. is the prime reason for the site’s designation or if it available for species, habitats and geomorphological forms an essential part of the protected habitat systems. These need to be further studied, as do the These include: type. As an example, the arctic alpine habitat type sensitivities of a wider range of species. This will • Identifying to what extent it is possible, and how species modelled, Norwegian mugwort, cloudberry increase confidence in predictions of the evolution to meet existing conservation commitments and and mountain ringlet, all appear to be vulnerable to of natural habitats. climate change across the whole of their existing targets as species’ distributions change and the More research is needed on the potential for and distribution in Britain and Ireland. Their loss would composition of habitats alter. possible rate of migration of species. This is essential constitute a breach of the EU Habitats Directive for establishing whether, in practice, species will be • Assessing conservation value as species which requires countries to take action to ensure able to occupy their new climatic spaces. Similarly, communities and habitat structure change. that species are maintained. However, it may be additional work is required on how wildlife possible to maintain overall population numbers in • Defining the stages of development of the habitat communities are likely to change, including the Mountain ringlet (Erepia epiphron) “At the site level, different locations. This work will have to be type, as well as its rate of change. future role of non-native species, particularly international in scope, especially where the onus for the loss of a species those likely to migrate from continental Europe. • Defining acceptable levels of intervention to conservation of individual species changes its may have significant And, throughout, modelling work needs to be manage change, particularly with regard to geographical focus. For instance, if an internationally supported by additional monitoring. implications for species not recognised as being characteristic of rare species find a new home in Britain or Ireland, achieving existing the particular habitat type. or where new habitat needs to be identified and nurtured for species in decline or threatened with conservation Individualistic responses by species will lead to extinction here. Research will also be needed into The MONARCH project has produced a useful set of models and changes in community composition as the results commitments”. the possible damaging as well as beneficial effects show for the salt marsh habitat, where common salt techniques to improve the ability of nature conservation of invading non-native species. marsh grass, sea purslane and flat sedge show organisations to forecast how climate change might impact on differing patterns and rates of response. Such UK Biodiversity Action Plans and the equivalent responses raise questions about how existing strategies and targets for Ireland that ensure wildlife and geological features. Results from MONARCH will conservation objectives and targets will remain compliance with the UN Convention on Biological enhance their capacity to provide sound scientifically-based advice achievable in the way they are currently framed. Diversity, will need to be more flexible, placing more We will need to re-assess how objectives and emphasis on the re-creation of habitats or creating on the impacts of climate change on nature conservation, and will targets are met and, in some cases, if targets are new space for them to form naturally as their assist in the development of adaptation strategies and management still appropriate. Both the objectives and the climate space moves. This may be particularly mechanisms within nature conservation policy and important in coastal areas where climate change options for vulnerable sites. This should ensure that timely action is practice will need to be explored again, taking and sea level rise may combine to have large-scale taken to protect threatened wildlife as climate changes. climate change into account in four main areas. effects, even in the short term.

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