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MONARCH Summary Brochure.Art 31/10/01 9:45 Am Page 1 MONARCH Summary brochure.art 31/10/01 9:45 am Page 1 All photographs used by permission Climate Change and Paul Sterry, Nature Photographers Ltd (NPL) E Thompson (NPL) front cover: rocky shore, page 11: azure damselfly page 6: large heath butterfly, Nature Conservation page 8: trailing azalea, British Trust for Ornithology page 9: spanish catchfly, page 1: red-throated diver, page 12: capercaillie, page 7: dunlin, in Britain and Ireland page 14: salt marsh, sea purslane, page 12: nuthatch, page 17: mountain ringlet page 15: oystercatcher MONARCH - Modelling Natural Resource Andrew Cleave (NPL) English Nature front cover: mudflats, page 8: globe flower, Responses to Climate Change page 10: peat bog, page 9: beech trees, page 15: sabellaria alveolata page 11: female natterjack toad S.Bisserot (NPL) Duchas, The Heritage Service, Ireland page 13: stalagmites page 13: Burren national park Sverre Stølen, Norway page 9: Norwegian mugwort The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) UKCIP was established by the UK Government in 1997, with the aim of providing a framework for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts. Researchers for MONARCH used the UKCIP98 climate scenarios and data sets, as well as the statistical techniques and several computer models. They also considered their findings in the light of other research undertaken under the UKCIP umbrella, particularly the DEFRA Conservation Policy Review and regional scoping studies. These earlier studies were based on expert opinion and literature reviews, but the modelling in MONARCH supports their findings. Climate Change and Nature Conservation in Britain Research was carried out by and Ireland was funded by the following organisations Edited by C Cook and P A Harrison and published by the above consortium under the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), November 2001 Further copies available from UKCIP at Union House, 12 St Michael's Street, Oxford OX1 2DU, telephone 01865 432076 or from the website: www.ukcip.org.uk Summary Report Printed on 50% recycled paper MONARCH Summary brochure.art 31/10/01 9:46 am Page 3 MONARCH Summary Report At a glance - winners and losers of climate space MONARCH Summary Report Introduction At a glance - winners and losers of climate space Introduction Climate change presents threats for some The study Modelling Natural Resource Responses to Climate species, as well as opportunities for others. Change (MONARCH) evaluates the impacts of climate change on Below is a snapshot of the study findings. wildlife and geomorphological features in Britain and Ireland. MONTANE HEATH LOWLAND CALCAREOUS GRASSLANDS OTHER WETLANDS AND It identifies the potential implications for climate space will also be vital in This is the most sensitive of all the habitats Changes are likely to be small, but this depends FRESHWATER HABITATS species and habitats in four environments: determining the future distribution of studied. All species lose climate space. on land use and land management responses to Impacts will depend on hydrology as well as terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine. species in Britain and Ireland. The study Winners - none climate change. temperature change, with desiccation in the south and east of Britain and Ireland a particular threat. Winners and losers emerge, including some also indicates gaps in knowledge and the Losers - mountain ringlet (Erebia epiphron) - Winners - dwarf thistle (Cirsium acaulon) faces local extinction yellow-wort (Blackstonia perfoliata) Winners - adder’s tongue (Ophioglossum vulgatum) species threatened with national extinction. implications of the research findings for stiff sedge (Carex bigelowii) common rock-rose (Helianthemum slender-leaved pondweed policy makers. dwarf willow (Salix herbacea) nummularium) (Potamogeton filiformis) Climate is one of the key determinates of trailing azalea (Loiseleuria procumbens) yellow wagtail (Motacilla flava) species’ distributions. As our climate changes, The study, commissioned by a consortium turtle dove (Streptopelia turtur) SALT MARSHES the distribution patterns of species and the of nature conservation organisations in 1 Losers - none UPLAND HAY MEADOWS Variable species’ response is likely to result in composition of habitats will change. Britain and Ireland, was carried out under Species composition is likely to shift, but other altered species’ composition. Salt marshes may 1 studies show that this depends on farmers’ DROUGHT-PRONE ACID GRASSLAND migrate inland as sea levels rise, depending on If we are to understand the likely changes the UK Climate Impacts Programme responses to climate change. Relatively sensitive, but more species need to coastal protection policies. and so assess the vulnerability of different (UKCIP) - see back page for details. Winners - great burnet (Sanguisorba officinalis) be modelled to increase confidence in the Winners - sea purslane (Atriplex portulacoides) species, as well as their ability to adapt, we habitat response. Losers - globe flower (Trollius europaeus) Losers - flat sedge (Blysmus rufus) need to understand how current patterns of wood cranesbill (Geranium sylvaticum) Winners - Spanish catchfly (Silene otites) common salt marsh grass Winners/ (Puccinellia maritima) distribution are related to our climate. losers - common storksbill (Erodium cicutarium) This was the starting point for developing UPLAND OAK WOODLAND COASTAL DUNE SLACKS Oaks should persist, but the composition of the a bioclimatic classification for Britain and 1 undergrowth is likely to change. Listed winners CALEDONIAN PINE WOODLAND Variable species’ response. Some may dry out in Ireland, demonstrating which parts of Britain the south and east, but species could migrate may all lose ground in the south and east of Sensitive habitat with all species likely to decline and Ireland share the same climate Britain, while gaining elsewhere. from current areas of suitability. north. characteristics now, before using models Winners - hay-scented buckler-fern Losers - twinflower (Linnaea borealis) Winners - marsh helleborine (Epipactis palustris) (Dryopteris aemula) capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) Losers - variegated horsetail to predict future impacts on species. willow tit (Parus montanus) (Equisetum variegatum) nuthatch (Sitta europaea) natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) MONARCH identifies whether a suitable WET HEATHS nightingale (Luscinia megarhynchos) climate is likely to be available, but there is Robust habitat since the dominant species Losers - serrated wintergreen (Orthilia secunda) (cross-leaved heath) shows no change, but may COASTAL ESTUARIES no guarantee that a species will be able to Little be adversely affected by lower water availability Variable response for the effects of sea level rise move to it. Climate will not be the only change - hard fern (Blechnum spicant) in the south and east of Britain and Ireland. on the density of waterbirds. However, numbers factor determining whether the new Winners - marsh gentian (Gentiana pneumonanthe) of all waterbirds increased as a result of 1 increasing area. location is suitable. The ability to move BEECH WOODLAND Losers - none Winners - oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) The dominant species (beech) loses climate space Little and the ecological suitability of the new Red-throated diver (Gavia stellata) - one of the losers in the south and east of Britain, but in the north change - cross-leaved heath (Erica tetralix) Losers - curlew (Numenius arquata) and west the habitat may gain. dunlin (Calidris alpina) Winners/ redshank (Tringa totanus) PEAT BOGS losers - beech (Fagus sylvatica) Species which are currently widespread show little Little OTHER SPECIES change, but some elements of this habitat are change - yew (Taxus baccata) sensitive, with some loss of suitable climate space Winners - large skipper (Ochlodes venata) sanicle (Sanicula europaea) in the south and east of Britain and Ireland. azure damselfly (Coenagrion puella) Winners - white-beaked sedge (Rhynchospora alba) Losers - Norwegian mugwort (Artemesia bog myrtle (Myrica gale) norvegica) - faces extinction sphagnum moss (Sphagnum papillosum) red-throated diver (Gavia stellata) Losers - large heath (Coenonympha tullia) 1 Habitats which do not occur in Ireland. cloudberry (Rubus chamaemorus) 1 MONARCH Summary brochure.art 31/10/01 9:46 am Page 2 MONARCH Summary Report A changing climate MONARCH Summary Report A changing climate A changing climate Change in average annual temperature (°C), with respect to the 1961-90 average, for the four UKCIP98 scenarios (Hulme & Jenkins, 1998) Nobody can be absolutely sure how the climate will alter over the 2020s 2050s 2080s coming decades. But the world’s leading climate scientists, grouped 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E under the banner of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 60N 60N +0.4 +0.7 +0.9 Change (IPCC), believe that global average temperatures will rise by 57N 57N Low between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees centigrade over the current century. +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 54N 54N +0.5 +0.5 +0.6 +0.8 +0.8 +0.9 +1.0 +1.1 +1.1 Uncertainty arises in projections of future climate • Increases in winter rainfall everywhere, but a 51N 51N because we don’t yet know how society will decrease in summer rainfall in southern England +0.6 +0.9 +1.3 respond to the threat posed by climate change. of as much as 22 per cent by the 2050s. Annual But, however swiftly and dramatically we respond, mean • Higher evaporation rates that will affect water temperature some climate change is now inevitable. 60N 60N availability, particularly
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