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Assessing Transition Policies for the Diffusion of Electric Vehicles Imperial College London Department of Earth Science and Engineering Electrochemical Science and Engineering Group Assessing Transition Policies for the Diffusion of Electric Vehicles by Dipl. Wirt.-Ing. Christoph Mazur MRes Business Administration and Engineering, Diploma degree RWTH Aachen University (2011) Design Management, Master of Research Ecole Centrale de Paris (2009) Supervised by: Prof. Nigel Brandon, Energy Futures Lab Dr. Gregory Offer, Mechanical Engineering Department Dr. Marcello Contestabile, Centre for Environmental Policy Submitted in part fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in System Innovation and Sustainability of Imperial College London and the Diploma of Imperial College London February 2015 1 Abstract Though hybrid, electric or fuel cell cars have the potential to lower carbon emissions in transport, they have not yet penetrated the market sufficiently. Policy makers want to solve that issue but have only limited insights on how to actually allocate their limited resources. To address this, research has started examining the transition of socio- technical systems and the roll-out of past technologies. This has led to the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) framework, which offers a basis to discuss sustainability transitions, transition patterns and pathways. Though it already has provided relevant insights for policy makers on how they can achieve their transition targets, the MLP currently only offers a qualitative framework that only focuses on a narrative understanding of transitions. Quantitative approaches, however, lack the insights from the MLP research strand. Hence, an appropriate mean to assess the effectiveness of policies or firm strategies with regard to future transition pathways is missing. This PhD addresses these shortcomings, creating links between transition science and modelling to allow the examination of sustainability transitions. The outputs help identify suitable policy measures to achieve desired transitions that are compatible with governments’ targets - hence to create (Mission-Oriented) Transition Policies that satisfy environmental and industrial targets. 2 Table of contents I LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................ 8 II LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... 12 III DECLARATION OF ORIGINALITY .................................................................................. 14 IV COPYRIGHT DECLARATION ........................................................................................ 15 V ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................... 16 VI SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS ..................................................................................... 17 VII STORY OF THIS PHD PROJECT .................................................................................... 18 1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 19 1.1 The challenge surrounding transport and climate change ............................................. 20 1.2 Possible technologies and futures that could solve environmental issues in transport 22 1.2.1 Transforming the passenger transport beyond pure technology change .............. 23 1.2.2 Low emission technologies for passenger cars ....................................................... 25 1.2.3 The economics of an individual low emission vehicle ............................................. 28 1.2.4 The potential of low emission vehicles to meet carbon targets ............................. 33 1.3 Policy making for a transition towards low emission vehicles ....................................... 36 2 RESEARCH QUESTIONS, HYPOTHESIS AND OBJECTIVES .............................................. 40 2.1 The research question .................................................................................................... 41 2.2 Hypothesis ...................................................................................................................... 45 2.3 Objectives ....................................................................................................................... 46 2.4 Novelty of the thesis ....................................................................................................... 47 2.5 Outline of the thesis ....................................................................................................... 49 3 THEORY, FRAMEWORKS AND METHODOLOGIES ........................................................ 50 3.1 Qualitative methodologies - the theory framework ...................................................... 51 3.1.1 From Schumpeter to the currently used transition sciences - a historical overview .................................................................................................................. 51 3.1.2 Introduction into the research on sustainability transitions ................................... 53 3.1.2.1 Socio-technical systems .................................................................................... 54 3.1.2.2 The Multi-Level Perspective ............................................................................. 55 3.1.3 Visions and Transition pathways ............................................................................. 57 3 3.1.4 The application of transition science ....................................................................... 61 3.2 Computer-based modelling and simulation approaches used so far ............................. 64 3.3 Modelling with System Dynamics ................................................................................... 66 3.3.1 Introduction into System Dynamics ........................................................................ 69 3.3.1.1 Problem articulation ......................................................................................... 72 3.3.1.2 Formulation of the dynamic hypothesis ........................................................... 73 3.3.1.3 Formulation of a simulation model .................................................................. 73 3.3.1.4 Model testing .................................................................................................... 74 3.3.1.5 Policy design and evaluation ............................................................................ 74 4 ASSESSMENT OF POLICIES FOR ELECTRIC CARS IN THE UK AND GERMANY USING THE MLP ......................................................................................................... 76 4.1 Methodology................................................................................................................... 77 4.1.1 Step 1: Analysis of the current system and regime ................................................. 78 4.1.2 Step 2: Identification of a future regime based upon policy targets ...................... 78 4.1.3 Step 3: Identification of a compatible transition pathway ...................................... 79 4.1.4 Step 4: Assessment of whether current policy making supports the proposed transition pathway .................................................................................. 80 4.2 The analysis of policy making in the UK and Germany ................................................... 81 4.2.1 Analysis of the current regime ................................................................................ 81 4.2.1.1 Today’s private car sector in the UK ................................................................. 81 4.2.1.2 Today’s private car sector in Germany ............................................................. 82 4.2.1.3 Today’s private car regime in the UK and Germany ......................................... 83 4.2.2 Identification of a future regime based upon policy targets for the UK and German cases .................................................................................................... 85 4.2.2.1 UK government policy goals for the private car regime................................... 85 4.2.2.2 German government policy goals for the private car regime .......................... 86 4.2.2.3 Potential visions for the future UK and German regimes ................................ 86 4.2.3 Identification of a compatible transition pathway .................................................. 87 4.2.3.1 Potential transition pathways for the UK ......................................................... 87 4.2.3.2 Potential transition pathways and patterns for Germany ............................... 88 4.2.4 Assessment of current policy making with regard to its compatibility with a valid transition pathway ............................................................................... 89 4.2.4.1 Assessment of low carbon vehicle policies in the UK ....................................... 89 4.2.4.2 Assessment of low carbon vehicle policies in Germany ................................... 91 4.3 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................... 94 4.4 Discussion of study and motivation of the following work ............................................ 97 5 BEHAVIOUR OF THE GERMAN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY SINCE 1990 .......................... 99 4 5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................
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