THE GORDIAN KNOT OF THE CAUCASUS THE CONFLICT OVER NAGORNO-KARABAKH Wojciech Górecki WARSAW MAY 2020 THE GORDIAN KNOT OF THE CAUCASUS THE CONFLICT OVER NAGORNO-KARABAKH Wojciech Górecki © Copyright by Centre for Eastern Studies CONTENT EDITORS Adam Eberhardt, Krzysztof Strachota EDITORS Małgorzata Zarębska, Tomasz Strzelczyk CO-OPERATION Katarzyna Kazimierska TRANSLATION Iwona Reichardt CO-OPERATION Jim Todd GRAPHIC DESIGN PARA-BUCH MAP Wojciech Mańkowski DTP IMAGINI PHOTOGRAPH ON COVER Wojciech Mańkowski Centre for Eastern Studies ul. Koszykowa 6a, 00-564 Warsaw, Poland tel.: (+48) 22 525 80 00,
[email protected] www.osw.waw.pl ISBN: 978-83-65827-51-7 Contents KEY POINTS | 5 INTRODUCTION | 8 I. THE NATURE OF THE CONFLICT AND THE PARTIES INVOLVED | 11 II. FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCE IN POSITIONS | 16 III. IN THE SHADOW OF KARABAKH | 19 1. The conflict’s impact on Azerbaijan and Armenia | 19 1.1. The political and military dimension | 19 1.2. The economic dimension | 28 1.3. The social dimension | 30 2. The conflict’s regional significance | 33 2.1. The political dimension | 33 2.2. The economic dimension | 46 2.3. The social dimension | 48 3. The conflict and its more distant neighbourhood | 50 3.1. Iran and Turkey’s positions | 50 3.2. The position of the West | 52 IV. SUMMARY AND FORECASTS | 55 APPENDIX 1. Outline of the conflict’s history (1987–2020) | 58 APPENDIX 2. The peace process | 67 APPENDIX 3. The conflict’s military dimension | 81 APPENDIX 4. The Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic | 87 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS | 90 MAP | 93 KEY POINTS • The conflict over the state affiliation of Nagorno ‑Karabakh, which has been ongoing since 1987 (and led to full‑scale war in 1992–94) has deter‑ mined Armenia and Azerbaijan’s post‑Soviet history.