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Africa Central Africa Burundi (side) Opposition Democratic Alliance for Change (ADC-Ikibiri) 5 Dec rejected new electoral commission, approved 4 Dec by National Assembly and Senate. President Nkurunziza 22 Dec announced postponement of Truth and Reconciliation Commission bill, will now be tabled early 2013. “Le Parlement adopte une nouvelle commission électorale en catimini”, RFI, 5 Dec. 2012. A monthly bulletin by Crisis Group on current and potential conflicts around the world Cameroon (side) Cameroon and Nigerian govts 17 Dec agreed to start process for demarcation of land-based areas yet to113 be identified 30 December in Bakassi peninsula; 2012 Nigeria expressed concern at reported cases of maltreatment of its citizens in Board of Trustees Bakassi. Soldier 27 Dec reportedly shot at President Biya’s motorcade in failed assassination attempt. Court 14 Dec Chair sentenced opposition leader Enoh Meyomess, arrested Nov 2011 for alleged coup attempt, to 7 years jail on charges of Thomas Pickering aggravated theft,December illegal sale of gold. 2012 Trends President and CEO “Govt warns CamerounDeteriorated against maltreatingSituations Nigerians in Bakassi”, GuardianImproved, 13 Dec. 2012. Situations Louise Arbour Central African Republic (p.2) Central African Republic (down and bomb) Resurgence of rebel activity in north under new Seleka coalition early Vice-Chairs China/Japan (p.5) Ayo Obe Dec threatened Bozizé regime. Rebels made swift gains in north and east: 11 Dec captured Ndele town, 18 Dec seized Ghassan Salamé central miningNorth town Bria,Korea 29 (p.5) Dec seized Sibut, 114 miles from capital Bangui; rebels currently control approximately a third of country. EstimatedSyria (p.10) 400 Chadian soldiers deployed 18 Dec in Sibut and Damara cities to contain rebels, prevent fall of Executive Committee Bangui. Rebels 26 Dec called on troops to stand down, said did not intend to march on capital; govt and rebels 28 Dec Morton Abramowitz agreed to talks starting early Jan. Regional presidents 21 Dec met with President Bozizé, called for deployment of regional Cheryl Carolus Maria Livanos Cattaui peacekeepers,Unchanged negotiations under Situations aegis of regional organisation (ECCAS); ECCAS 29 Dec announced deployment of additional troops. AU chair Boni set to discuss crisis with Bozizé end-month. UN late month began evacuation of staff, U.S. Yoichi Funabashi Frank Giustra evacuated embassyAfghanistan and urged (p.5), citizens Algeria to(p.11), leave. Armenia Bozizé (p.8),27 Dec Azerbaijan appealed (p.8), for U.S., Bahrain French (p.10), intervention. Bangladesh Hundreds (p.5), late Dec Bolivia (p.9), Bosnia (p.7), Burundi (p.2), Cameroon (p.2), Chad (p.2), Colombia (p.9), Côte Mark Malloch-Brown demonstrated, stoned French embassy, criticised France for failing to intervene; French president Hollande said French Moisés Naím military will protectd’Ivoire embassy (p.3), Cyprus and French (p.9), citizens, Democratic will notRepublic interfere of inCongo domestic (p.2), affairs. Egypt (p.11), Ethiopia (p.2), George Soros “C. African rebelsGeorgia advance (p.8), asGuatemala AU holds (p.9), crisis Guinea talks”, AFP,(p.4), 30Guinea-Bissau Dec. 2012. (p.4), Haiti (p.9), India (non- Pär Stenbäck Kashmir) (p.6), Indonesia (p.6), Iran (p.10), Iraq (p.11), Jordan (p.11), Kashmir (p.6), Kazakhstan (p.5), Chad (side) KenyaGovt mid-Dec (p.2), Kosovo agreed (p.7), to enhance Kuwait (p.11),surveillance Kyrgyzstan of border (p.5), with Lebanon Libya during (p.10), visit Liberia by Libyan (p.4), Libya PM Zeidan. (p.12), Kofi Annan President DébyMacedonia 5 Dec met (p.8), with FrenchMadagascar President (p.3), Hollande, Mali (p.4), discussed Mexico (p.9), potential Morocco deployment (p.12), Myanmarof Chadian (p.6), troops to Mali, Nahum Barnea security deterioration in Central African Republic (see CAR). Govt 18 Dec deployed some 400 troops to fight CAR rebels, Samuel Berger Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan) (p.8), Nepal (p.6), Niger (p.4), Nigeria (p.4), North Caucasus Emma Bonino said intervention an “interposition” mission, Chad not siding with any protagonists in CAR conflict. (Russia) (p.8), Northern Ireland (p.9), Pakistan (p.6), Philippines (p.7), Rwanda (p.2), Saudi Micheline Calmy-Rey “Crise en RCA:Arabia le Tchad (p.11), s’agace Senegal de (p.4),l’absence Serbia d’implication (p.8), Somalia de (p.2),Bangui Somaliland dans les négociations“(p.3), South Sudan, RFI, (p.3),24 Dec. Israel/ 2012. Wesley Clark Occupied Palestinian Territories (p.10), Sri Lanka (p.6), Sudan (p.3), Tajikistan (p.5), Thailand (p.7), Sheila Coronel Mark Eyskens DemocraticTimor Republic Leste (p.7),of Congo Tunisia (side) (p.12), M23 Turkey rebel (p.9), group Turkmenistan withdrawal (p.5),from UkraineGoma completed (p.8), Uzbekistan 2 Dec. Opposition (p.5), parties Nabil Fahmy 6 Dec rejectedVenezuela invitation to(p.9), join Yemen govt-M23 (p.11), talks Zimbabwe facilitated (p.3)by Uganda beginning 7 Dec; talks made little progress, extended Lykke Friis to end of 2012. Insecurity around Goma, IDP camps continues. 2 MONUSCO helicopters reportedly fired at from areas Joschka Fischer under M23 control 26 Dec. ICC 18 Dec acquitted former militia leader Mathieu Ngudjolo (Chui) of war crimes, crimes Jean-Marie Guéhenno against humanityJanuary in 2003 in Ituri. 2013 Watchlist Carla Hills “DRC Opposition rejects offer to join M23 talks”, VOA, 6 Dec. 2012. Lena Hjelm-Wallén Conflict Risk Alerts Conflict Resolution Mo Ibrahim Igor Ivanov New Crisis GroupCentral Africa African Briefing Republic N°93, (p.2) Eastern Congo: The ADF-Nalu’s LostOpportunities Rebellion, 19 Dec. 2012. The fight against Asma Jahangir entrenched armed groups in eastern Congo such as the ADF-Nalu needs to switch from a military to an intelligence- Wadah Khanfar based approach. The full briefing is only available in French. Wim Kok Ricardo Lagos Rwanda (side) Govt 2 Dec said FDLR rebels crossed border from DR Congo into Rwanda, killed national park warden Joanne Leedom-Ackerman Lalit Mansingh near Musanze province. U.S. President Obama 18 Dec called for end to Rwandan support for DR Congo M23 rebels. Benjamin Mkapa “ObamaCrisis tells RwandaWatch to end DRC rebel support”, AFP, 19 Dec. 2012. Laurence Parisot summarises briefly developments during the previous month summarises Crisis Group’s reports and briefing papers that Karim Raslan in some 70 situations of current or potential conflict, listed have been published in the last month. Paul Reynolds Hornalphabetically of Africa by region, providing references and links to Javier Solana more detailed information sources (all references mentioned CrisisWatch is compiled by Crisis Group’s Brussels Research Liv Monica Stubholt Ethiopia (side) PM Desalegn late Dec expressed willingness to negotiate with Eritrea following official Qatari govt are hyperlinked in the electronic version of this bulletin); Unit, drawing on multiple sources including the resources of our Lawrence Summers effort to open negotiations. Federal High Court 12 Dec convictedsome several 140 staff opposition members across members five continents,on terrorism who chargesalready for Wang Jisi assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, dur- links to banned Oromo Liberation Front. 29 Muslim leaders arrestedreport on in some July 60on of terrorism the situations charges listed appeared here. Comments in court 17 Wu Jianmin ing the previous month, significantly deteriorated, significantly Dec. Rebel Ogaden National Liberation Front reportedly resumedand suggestions talks with cangovt be late-month. sent to [email protected]. Lionel Zinsou improved, or on balance remained more or less unchanged; alerts readers to situations where, in the coming month, there To search past issues of CrisisWatch visit our databases and Chairmen Emeriti is a particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict, resources page at www.crisisgroup.org. Martti Ahtisaari or a particular conflict resolution opportunity (noting that in George J. Mitchell some instances there may in fact be both); and President Emeritus Gareth Evans Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation, with some 140 staff members on five continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict. Crisis Group’s approach is grounded in field research. Teams of political analysts are located within or close by countries at risk of outbreak, escalation or recurrence of violent conflict. Based on information and assessments from the field, Crisis Group produces regular analytical reports containing practical recommendations targeted at key international decision-takers, and backed up with high-level advocacy. Crisis Group is chaired by former U.S. Ambassador and Vice Chairman of Hills & Company Thomas R. Pickering, and its President and Chief Executive is former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour. Democratic Republic of Congo M23 rebel group withdrawal from Africa Goma completed 2 Dec. Opposition parties 6 Dec rejected invi- tation to join govt-M23 talks facilitated by Uganda beginning 7 Dec; talks made little progress, extended to end of 2012. Insecurity Central Africa around Goma, IDP camps continues. 2 MONUSCO helicopters reportedly fired at from areas under M23 control 26 Dec. ICC 18 Dec acquitted former militia leader Mathieu Ngudjolo (Chui) of Burundi Opposition Democratic Alliance for Change (ADC- war crimes, crimes against humanity in 2003 in Ituri. Ikibiri) 5 Dec rejected new electoral commission, approved
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