4 ISOCARP President’s Foreword 6 Local Organizing Committee’s Foreword 8 Dutch Minister of Infrastructure and the Environment Foreword 9 From the Editors
12 NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND METHODS
14 EXPLORING CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF REGIONAL URBAN GROWTH STRATEGIES: A PLANNING SCENARIO CASE STUDY FROM THE CALGARY REGION OF WESTERN CANADA by Matt Carlson, Michael Quinn and Brad Stelfox
32 URBAN DYNAMICS: A SYSTEMS THINKING FRAMEWORK FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND PLANNING by Khalid Saeed
48 DESIGNING FUTURE CITIES: LakeSIM INTEGRATED DESIGN TOOL FOR ASSESSING SHORT- AND LONG-TERM IMPACTS OF URBAN SCALE CONCEPTUAL DESIGNS by Joshua Bergerson, Ralph T. Muehleisen, Bo Rodda, Joshua A. Auld, Leah B. Guzowski, Jonathan Ozik and Nicholson Collier
64 SPACE SYNTAX: AN EVIDENCED – BASED APPROACH TO URBAN PLANNING & DESIGN by Tao Yang
78 BIG/OPEN DATA IN CHINESE URBAN STUDIES AND PLANNING: A REVIEW by Ying Long and Lun Liu
92 TURPAN SOLAR CITY: THE DEMONSTRATION CITY OF NATIONAL NEW ENERGY by Zhang Hongwei and Yu Jinhui
104 EMERGING ISSUES
106 CLIMATE CHANGE AND ACTION PLANNING TO INCREASE RESILENCY by Ebru Gencer, Ric Stephens and Eric Johanson
120 GROWING HIGH VALUE FOOD IN SMALL SPACES: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CITIES AND FOOD PRODUCTION by Elizabeth Reynolds
138 BUILDING AGE FRIENDLY CITIES IN AGEING ASIAN TIGERS by Belinda Yuen and K E Seetharam 154 EXEMPLARY, FORWARD-LOOKING CITY PLANS
156 MAKING A NEW DISTRICT CENTER USING EIGHT PRINCIPALS: CHENGGONG, A NEW TOWN NEAR KUNMING, CHINA by Zhigao Wang, Zhuojian Peng, Jiangyan Wang and Peter Calthorpe
172 MAKING STREETS SMILE TO REGENERATE CITIES: A CASE OF CHONGQING, CHINA by Yang Jiang, Jasmine Tillu, Dongquan He and Kristian Skovbakke Villadsen
188 PHILADELPHIA’S UNIVERSITY CITY: A MODEL OF URBAN RENEWAL ANCHORED AND LEAD BY PRIVATE SECTOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTMENT by Anthony Sorrentino
210 WESTERN HARBOR IN MALMO by Stefan Anderberg
228 ECOLOGICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AS A TOOL FOR SMART PRESERVATION AND SMART GROWTH: THE NEGATIVE APPROACH by Kongjian Yu, Hailong Li and Dihua Li
242 About the Authors 254 About the Editors
Editors Editor-in-Chief: Shi Nan, ISOCARP VP, China Editor: Jim Reilly, United States Editor: Fran Klass, United States
Copyright 2015 Coordinator © International Society Lucian Perici, Romania of City and Regional Planners Graphic Designer All rights reserved. Ricardo Moura, Portugal (www.ricardomoura.pt) No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or ISBN 978-94-90354-42-8 transmitted in any form or by any means Cover illustration © Ricardo Moura electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the Printed and bound in Romania by Smart Print prior written permission of the Publisher. Authorship Responsibility: the original Printing financed by the Dutch Minister of Infrastructure and the Environment author is responsible for the content of the manuscript. Order online at: www.isocarp.org ISOCARP PRESIDENT’S FOREWORD
ISOCARP PRESIDENT’S FOREWORD
WELCOME TO REVIEW 11
Milica Bajic-Brkovic For five decades, the Society has been at the forefront of the planning ISOCARP - AIU - IGSRP debate in search of better and more responsive ways of dealing with the President (2012-2015) challenges of urban and spatial development. ISOCARP has always be- lieved that creating and sharing knowledge, experience and expertise with all, regardless of geography, ideology or level of development, is very much needed to make cities and regions more livable, socially in- clusive, better integrated and connected. The five decades of ISOCARP’s international involvement testify to the strength of our commitment and to our contribution to its achievement on a global scale. The dynamics of planning transformation have been exceptionally in- tensive over the last two decades, mostly because of processes such as globalization, the recognition of sustainability as an over-arching phil- osophy of development, advances in technology and communication, and in response to climate and energy challenges. No less relevant are social issues, including new dimensions of urban democracy and recogni- tion of the role played by a civil society. The changing reality affects the way planners work and encroaches on the very meaning of the profes- sion itself, its instruments and procedures, as well as that way planning solutions are conceived, developed and implemented. This year’s Congress, with its theme “Cities Save the World: Let’s Re- invent Planning”, reflects ISOCARP’s views on the status quo of the plan- ning profession and objectives for its further development. The Congress gathers planners, architects, policy makers, urban managers and all those who are involved in place-making to explore new professional perspec- tives by concentrating on critical issues ranging from carbon cities, build- ing cities in a cooperative way, developing trans-boundary systems and sustainable knowledge regions to hyper-dynamic age and the changing frontiers of planning. Review 11 is all about reinventing planning and developing new insights into future city and spatial planning. Many authors contributed to present a fresh look at this topic, one that is responsive to contemporary and fu- ture challenges. Ying Long and Lun Liu presented their research using big/open data to quantify urban dynamics in China. Brad Stelfox, Michael Quinn and Matt Carlson contributed a case about a computer model- ing-based planning tool for assessing the cumulative impacts of alterna- tive futures for the Calgary Region of Western Canada. Khalid Saeed’s paper revisits Urban Dynamics and establishes its continued relevance for modeling and testing planning and economic policies. The results of implementing the energy recycling techniques in Turpan Solar City are attention grabbing as presented in the paper of Hong Wei and Yujin Hui,
4 ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 ISOCARP PRESIDENT’S FOREWORD and the cooperative public private planning and development experience from Philadelphia’s University City by Anthony Sorrentino. Meeting the climate change challenges is explored and presented by Ebru Gencer, Ric Stephens and Erik Johanson. Elizabeth Reynolds’ paper proposes innova- tive measures for urban agriculture, while Belinda Yuen and Kallidaikuri- chi Seetharam brought in an illustration of the emerging role of planners in building age-friendly cities in Singapore and Japan. Tao Yang’s article speaks about using Space Syntax as a computer tool for planning. A research team from the U.S. Department of Energy, Argonne Na- tional Laboratories, presents a program to design and test alternative city configurations. Jiangyan Wang and Meng Fei, and Zhigao Wang pro- vided fascinating urban design examples from their countries. Stefan An- derberg reports on the development of Sweden’s Vastra Hamnen. And lastly, Kongjian Yu provides an alternative plan for Beijing. Preparing this publication has taken a tremendous amount of time and effort. To all who contributed, I would like to extend my very warm thanks: to the authors for generously sharing their knowledge and ex- perience, to the editors James Reilly and Frances M. Klass, for their con- tinuing dedication, patience and wise guidance in working with colleagues from around the world, and to Lucian Perici who coordinated the pro- duction of this publication. My special thanks go to Shi Nan, Vice Presi- dent of ISOCARP, who devotedly worked with the whole team. Gratitude also goes to the designer, Ricardo Moura, whose designs made reading this book a more enjoyable experience. Finally, I would like to extend sin- cere appreciation to The Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment, The Netherlands, and to the City of Rotterdam. Without their generous help, this publication would not have been possible.
ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 5 LOCAL ORGANIZING COMMITTEE’S FOREWORD
LOCAL ORGANIZING COMMITTEE’S FOREWORD
TIMES ARE CHANGING
“ Seen from a spaceship, our planet also looks like a spaceship surrounded with nothing than emptiness, without any form of life. We understand that we have to do live together with this planet as our only option. “ Wubbo Ockels, the first Dutch astronaut
Martin Aarts We are facing a new world order. Because of the growth of China, India, Senior advisor urban Africa and South America, the supremacy of the so-called western development Rotterdam world has come to an end. We are all living in one world, and we all have to deal with the effects of climate change and shortages of food, water and energy, as well as economic crises. At the same time, the existence of a network society, where the widespread use of the internet, PCs, smart phones, and cloud-based computing has led to better access to information, increased globaliz- ation, the empowerment of citizens and the democratization of deci- sion making in the form of multilateralism. At the same time, much more detailed data and information on cities, especially real-time informa- tion coming from sensors, smart phones, smart meters and GPS track- ing, has become available to assist us to prepare better plans. (Castells 1996, 2013, Rifkin, 2012)
Cities are the motor of innovation, and innovation is the driving force behind economic growth. However, it is not a matter of business as usual, but rather of adapting the new reality to our economic system. So in the present age of globalisation, our cities are under heavy pres- sure to undertake drastic urban transformation. Cities (city regions) have to take responsibility for unprecedented transformation of their environment, because they can easily become less relevant if they don’t adapt to the new situation. At the same time that we are in an economic transformation mode, we should transform our planning system. Instead of planning items like houses, roads, schools and other sectorial things, we should plan challenging, inspiring and comfortable cities to create an inclusive city and attract talent. The vision of all cities is always to foster a strong economy, a good quality of life and a nice quality of space. Today I would like to alter that vision with the adjective “sustainable.” We should plan a sustainable economy, a sustainable quality of life and a sustainable quality of space. But that is not enough. We should add the inhabitants as the starting point for developing the future of our cities. As Jane Jacobs already said in 1973 (Economy of cities): “In successful cities, everything is about
6 ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 LOCAL ORGANIZING COMMITTEE’S FOREWORD people who challenge, compete and stimulate each other so that innov- ation can come about.” We need to move forward from there.
The challenges for Rotterdam are enormous, because we are in the middle of all these kinds of transitions. We see, for example, a vulnerable harbour and inner city. Rotterdam might be the only city in Holland were the inhabitants are really excited about change, but we had to change the culture in city policy to engender the excitement. The question we asked ourselves was: “How should Rotterdam act to be resilient in this new era? Knowing that human capital is the essential for a resilient city and inner cities are playing a leading role for an attractive city?” Research teaches us that densification in the inner city will only lead to a resilient city if the people themselves will hold a central position. They like densification, combined with pleasant green surroundings. Our assessment showed that increasing densification, and at the same time making a huge investment in public space, will result in a more sustainable city. There will be more bicycles and pedestrians and less car use, saving the cost of new public transport facilities. At the same time, it indicates a strong increase in jobs, so densification is also a necessary way for a resilient future of our city. The other very challenging example, an input from our workshop, was to recognize the vulnerability of our harbour, which is highly reliant on the oil and chemical industry. To remain the smartest port in Europe, the port must continue to be highly innovative. We also recognized that the port is a magnet for more than 5000 port-related businesses and com- panies. This leads to a strong network of clients, port-related compan- ies, consultants, knowledge institutes and employees based in the city. For the future, we need to acknowledge that only by operating as one system we can reach our goal to stay a resilient port city.
Does a new era of port city development mean unprecedented port- city synergy? ∙ Link the economic networks of the port and the city together ∙ Develop the quality of life that is required for a new economic de- velopment strategy ∙ Develop a new waterfront redevelopment strategy based on a fu- sion of port and city ∙ Make use of the river as a crucial element in the spatial-economic development strategy, as port landscape and recreation together ∙ There is no way around it. We have to communicate the fact that the near future will look completely different than what we could possibly imagine. We need great leadership and the support and cooperation of society, which is crucial as we enter this fascinating but unknown era.
ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 7 DUTCH MINISTER OF INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE ENVIRONMENT FOREWORD
DUTCH MINISTER OF INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE ENVIRONMENT FOREWORD
YEAR OF SPATIAL PLANNING
Melanie Schultz van Haegen I am proud that the Netherlands is hosting ISOCARP’s 50th anniversary Minister of Infrastructure and the congress. Spatial planners from over 80 countries are coming togeth- Environment, the Netherlands er to share knowledge and gather new ideas that will help address to- day’s challenges. Fittingly, this is happening in a year that our country has designated as the ‘Year of Spatial Planning’. A year in which we are throwing the spotlight on issues facing your country and ours: growing urbanisation, climate change, rising sea levels and pressure on our liv- ing environment.
How does the Netherlands see these issues? I want to focus on two of our goals: space for innovation and space for development. Technological advances enable us to use limited space and time more efficiently and improve our accessibility. In the Netherlands we are currently carrying out initial trials with self-driving cars, experi- menting with traffic management drones and conducting large-scale pi- lots with new forms of traffic management, in Amsterdam for example. The Netherlands wants to be an international testing ground for new innovations. But that means we also have to look at the spatial effects: will we still need parking on every street in the future? Can we improve the way we use urban spaces, for collecting and draining water for ex- ample? It is important to combine different functions in a small area, es- pecially in a country like the Netherlands. My second goal is to make this easier by streamlining legislation. Flex- ible use of our space is being hampered by too many fragmented laws. That is why we are carrying out the biggest legislative review in a hun- dred years. This year has seen the launch of a single Environment and Planning Act to replace dozens of separate laws and regulations. This will give more scope to regional and local government, businesses, citizens and spatial planners. We will be taking a bottom-up approach to devel- oping the Netherlands. Innovations in our country and in yours require a great deal of knowledge and brainpower. So I am pleased that spatial planners from all over the world have shared their insights in the pages that follow. I hope you will enjoy reading about them.
8 ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 FROM THE EDITORS
FROM THE EDITORS
The terrific news is that planning is being reinvented as you read these words. If our articles are an indication of the future, then rapid change in the profession will continue as academics, researchers and practi- cing professionals develop new ways to analyze problems and visual- ize opportunities. To collect the articles in this publication we cast a wide net for ex- amples of how planning was being reinvented. We wanted to know how educators and others thought the role for planners might change. We were interested to discover planning applications using: new statistical methods to examine space; new GIS methods; new remote sensing ca- pabilities; and internet features and services. We looked for projects that used new implementation methods. And we sought stories about innovative city plans. Presented in this edition of the ISOCARP Review are 14 articles that provide a snapshot into the future of planning. We have organized these articles into three themes: new technologies and techniques; emerging issues; and exemplary, forward-looking city plans. In the section about new technologies and techniques, we present two articles that demonstrate how systems dynamics can be applied to planning policy analysis. The first offers a sophisticated simulation of al- ternative growth scenarios and evaluates their impact on the Calgary (Canada) region. The second re-examines the famous case of Urban Dynamics, a computer simulation of US Federal urban polices applied to Boston (USA) in the 1960’s, and establishes its contemporary use as an urban development tool. Next, we have an article that displays a com- puter simulation of a proposed 600 acre urban development near Chi- cago (USA). This program enables designers to simulate alternative site configurations and to test them for both energy and transportation im- pacts. The fourth article provides examples of Space Syntax, a comput- er application that uses classical and spatial statistics analysis, among other analytical tools, to understand how places are organized by past development, thereby enabling planners to use this information to plan new growth. From China, we present examples of using big data and internet-enabled techniques to collect planning data sets that enable the understanding of urban form and function. Last is an article docu- menting the development of an experimental solar-powered city near Urumqi (China). Just as important as new technology are planning efforts addressing new issues which will affect plans into the future. We present an article about climate change that defines what it is, identifies some sources of information about this issue and finally offers a real-world engineered case study of adaptation. Next is a discussion of the suitability of cit-
ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 9 FROM THE EDITORS
ies for agriculture, the benefits of urban agricultural development and a comparative summary of these efforts in London and New York City. Finally, there is an article that describes the growing elderly populations in Asia and some of the societal and economic problems this demo- graphic imbalance presents. It also describes the efforts in Japan and Singapore to modify city plans as a result of this issue. In our final section, we have included articles about exemplary city plans that may influence other future developments. The first docu- ments the development of a new satellite town near Kunming (China). It demonstrates the use of design principles to shape urban growth and using rapid rail to link this new development to the older city. The second is a story about efforts to enhance the quality of life in Chong- qing (China). This plan emphasizes the revitalization of public spaces and the development of pedestrian and bike-friendly capacity along major movement corridors in the city. The third article is a story from Philadel- phia (USA) about mobilizing private institutional self-interest and finan- cial resources to achieve successful urban revitalization after tradition- al urban renewal efforts produced serious social concerns. It is note- worthy both for the complexity of the development mechanisms and its reliance on private funding. The fourth article describes the effort in Malmo (Sweden) to transform an abandoned shipyard into a new town filled with experimental, environmentally friendly buildings and activ- ities. This project is currently revitalizing the older urban area. We end with a visionary city design for Beijing (China) driven entirely by en- vironmental concerns. We are again deeply indebted to all of the authors and agencies for generously contributing their time and talent to prepare these articles. Ultimately, the authors and their agencies are the stars of this publica- tion. We would also like to acknowledge the wonderful assistance pro- vided the System Dynamics Society, the ISOCARP headquarters staff, members of the ISOCARP 51st Congress Local Organizing Committee and the Netherland Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment. We hope that readers find these articles to be interesting and filled with ideas. Reading these articles reminds us of the importance of the work of planners and how truly interesting our profession is. As al- ways, the editors and design professionals who produced this document aimed to provide a visually and intellectually rewarding publication for our readers. We hope we have succeeded. Finally, we encourage your suggestions, comments and (even) your criticisms regarding this publication. We invite readers to recommend ideas and projects that would make suitable articles for future editions of the Review. Your suggestions should be sent to [email protected] and marked to the attention of the Review Editors.
10 ISOCARP · REVIEW 11
NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND METHODS EXPLORING CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF REGIONAL URBAN GROWTH STRATEGIES A PLANNING SCENARIO CASE STUDY FROM THE CALGARY REGION OF WESTERN CANADA
MATT CARLSON · MICHAEL QUINN · BRAD STELFOX
Downtown Calgary. Source: authors
14 ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 EXPLORING CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF REGIONAL URBAN GROWTH STRATEGIES
INTRODUCTION making often occurs in isolated jurisdictional silos with little communication between sectors. Chan- Tyranny of Small Decisions ges in the physical landscape have significant and Cumulative Effects ripple effects on social, ecological and economic Fifty years ago, economist Alfred Kahn (1966) conditions. Cumulative effects arise through the introduced a concept that he called the ‘tyranny complexity and ‘wickedness’ of these interacting of small decisions’. Kahn noted that significant social-ecological systems (Game et al. 2014). changes in the economy were the result of small The form and function of any large city or re- decisions - “small in their individual size, time gion is a concrete expression of cumulative effects. perspective, and in relation to their total, com- The urban and regional planning consequences of bined, ultimate effect.” Ecologist William Odum multiple, autonomous decisions over space and (1982) noted similar effects in the environment time can (and often do) lead to a degradation of and concluded “much of the current confusion social, economic and environmental health. Faced and distress surrounding environmental issues with immense complexity, urban and regional can be traced to decisions that were never con- planners require new approaches and tools to sciously made, but simply resulted from a series of understand and better address cumulative effects small decisions.” The result of these observations of municipal development and other land use. is that the physical form and socioeconomic con- New and emerging technologies have a critical sequences of regional landscape patterns arise role to play in assisting this broader dialogue to- more by default than intentional design. ward holistic and integrative planning. Today we refer to these phenomena as ‘cumula- tive effects’ (Weber et al. 2012). The results of individual decisions accumulate across time and Modelling and Scenario Analyses space both additively (e.g., 1 ha subdivision + 1 Planning in the face of cumulative effects is made ha subdivision = 2 ha subdivision) and synergistic- challenging by complexity as well as uncertainty ally (e.g., 1 ha subdivision + 1 ha subdivision = arising from knowledge gaps and contingency
2 ha subdivision & an increase of CO2 emissions on unpredictable drivers (Peterson et al. 2003). that interact with other emissions to exacerbate These challenges make accurate prediction in- climate change). Adding to the complexity of mu- feasible and related planning frameworks, such nicipal development is that it rarely occurs in isola- as optimal decision making, ill-suited to land-use tion, but rather in combination with other changes planning. Instead, planning should assess the such as natural resource development and natural consequences of multiple possible futures that disturbances. The challenge here is that decision incorporate plausible but contrasting assump-
ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 15 MATT CARLSON · MICHAEL QUINN · BRAD STELFOX tions for drivers such as land use. A promising oil and gas sector. Ecologically, the area is char- approach to address cumulative effects is the use acterized by high amenity value in a semi-arid of robust spatial scenario analysis to explore the transition zone between the Rocky Mountains potential interaction of decisions over time and and the prairies. From the perspective of num- space (Mahmoud et al. 2009, Weber et al., 2012). erous societal indicators, the Calgary region is a Benefits of scenario analysis include revealing im- diverse, vibrant, and rapidly evolving matrix of plications of existing policies, identifying drivers metropolitan centre (Calgary) and surrounding that require attention, and illustrating the likely communities. consequences of alternative land-use strategies The Calgary Regional Partnership (CRP) is a (Shahumyan et al. 2014). Scenario approaches voluntary collaborative regional network (the only also allow planners to test the assumptions made one of its kind in Canada) of 13 municipalities in making development decisions through retro- working together to ensure growth occurs in a sus- spective analysis. tainable manner (Calgary Regional Partnership By embracing the complexity of cumulative 2014a). The CRP takes a proactive approach to effects, scenario analysis can inform land-use planning and is committed to employing innova- decisions through understanding the trade-offs tive tools to assist in decision-making. The CRP among environmental and socioeconomic ob- developed the Calgary Metropolitan Plan in 2009 jectives. However, assessing the consequences of (updated in 2012 & 2014) to serve as a roadmap overlapping human activities on diverse indicators to determine how and where growth will occur in a is itself a complicated undertaking. Doing so is fa- manner that protects the diverse values of the re- cilitated by the use of computer simulation models gion (Calgary Regional Partnership 2014b). The that apply mathematical relationships to dynam- plan reflects the key principles of the CRP: ically articulate the implications of multiple over- ∙ Protecting the natural environment and lapping drivers on future conditions. Modelling watershed; and scenario approaches can provide compelling ∙ Fostering the region’s economic vitality; evidence to support policy, planning and manage- ∙ Accommodating growth in more compact ment decision making (Shahumyan et al. 2014). settlement patterns; In this paper we report on the results of a simu- ∙ Integrating efficient regional infrastructure lation modeling exercise using ALCES (A Land- systems; scape Cumulative Effects Simulator; www.alces. ∙ Supported through a regional governance ca) to explore the cumulative effects of alternative approach. growth strategies in the Calgary region of western Canada. The CRP also developed a set of indicators to track progress on each of the key principles (Cal- The Calgary Region gary Regional Partnership 2015c). The scenarios The City of Calgary lies east of the Rocky Moun- and modelling that we outline below are meant to tains in western Canada. It is a relatively young assist planners in assessing the implications of the and rapidly growing city. The greater region is Calgary Metropolitan Plan on the distribution and currently home to approximately 1.2 million density of human activity and indicators related to people and it is projected that the population will key CRP principles. The process of using the tool more than double in the next 60 years (Calgary and considering the outcomes also serves as way Regional Partnership 2015). Economically, the to facilitate greater discussion between municipal region is a major driver of the national economy planning and other land users (e.g., agriculture, oil and is the corporate headquarters to Canada’s & gas, energy transmission and forestry).
16 ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 EXPLORING CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF REGIONAL URBAN GROWTH STRATEGIES
±
TOWN OF CROSSFIELD
MUNICIPAL DISTRICT OF BIGHORN NO. 8 ROCKY VIEW COUNTY TOWN OF IRRICANA
CITY OF AIRDRIE
I.D. NO. 9 (BANFF) TOWN OF BANFF TOWN OF COCHRANE
WHEATLAND COUNTY TOWN OF STRATHMORE
CITY OF CALGARY TOWN OF CANMORE TOWN OF CHESTERMERE
TOWN OF OKOTOKS
Alberta TOWN OF BLACK DIAMOND TOWN OF TURNER VALLEY MUNICIPAL DISTRICT OF FOOTHILLS NO. 31
TOWN OF HIGH RIVER
MUNICIPAL DISTRICT OF WILLOW CREEK NO. 26
TOWN OF NANTON Legend Study Area Boundary Urban Municipalities Rural Municipalities
0 1020304050 Kilometers Map Production Date: June 23, 2015
Figure 1: Context map of Calgary region
ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 17 MATT CARLSON · MICHAEL QUINN · BRAD STELFOX
Figure 2: Historical growth of Calgary, and examples of suburban and rural residential developments in the region.
18 ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 EXPLORING CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF REGIONAL URBAN GROWTH STRATEGIES
ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 19 MATT CARLSON · MICHAEL QUINN · BRAD STELFOX
APPROACH ventories. Cell size was set at 0.25 km2 to balance spatial detail with strategic regional ALCES Land-use Simulation Toolkit perspective. To simulate change in the com- The long-term (50 year) consequences of de- position of cells through time, regional land- velopment in the Calgary region were simulat- use and reclamation trajectories were spatial- ed using the ALCES land-use simulation toolkit. ly allocated at an annual time step according The toolkit has been used extensively to inform to the expected spatial distribution of each planning in Alberta (e.g., Carlson et al. 2010), as activity. Although the scenario outcomes are well as elsewhere in Canada, Australia, South calculated annually, due to space limitations, America, and India. To achieve a holistic per- we only report the 50 year trajectory in the spective, ALCES incorporates a wide-range of current paper. land uses and ecological processes as drivers. Outcomes for two municipal development Each driver is parameterized in the model by de- scenarios are presented in this report: busi- fining its growth rate and spatial distribution and ness as usual (BAU) and Calgary Metropol- the intensity of associated footprints (urban itan Plan (CMP). Both scenarios incorporate areas, rural residential, roads, industrial features, the same CRP-endorsed population trajec- farmland, cutblocks, burns). Defining these as- tory, increasing from 1.5 million to 2.8 million sumptions requires integration of information over 50 years with most (93%) growth oc- from disparate sources including management curring in urban municipalities. The scenarios plans, historical data, projections, current land- differed, however, with respect to how popu- scape patterns, and resource inventories. lation growth was spatially accommodated. ALCES adopts a spatially explicit, cell-based The BAU scenario applied a municipal de- simulation framework that allows individual velopment model consistent with the spatial cells to contain multiple natural and anthropo- distribution of population growth that has oc- genic cover types. ALCES is not a predictive curred in recent decades. Population expan- model, but instead projects the future out- sion in urban municipalities occurred in new comes of user-defined scenarios. Although suburbs that supported the current regional the precise future is unknowable and can not average urban population density (27 people/ be computed by any modeling approach, ex- km2) and were located at the periphery of ploration of the logical consequences of plaus- towns. Rural population growth occurred in ible but contrasting land-use scenarios allows new acreages whose location was based on for better identification of management strat- key determinants of acreage development to egies that are consistent with objectives. date, including driving distance to Calgary and the accessibility of mountain views and rec- Modelling Scenarios for reational activities. the Calgary Region In the CMP scenario we implemented strat- Comprehensive assessment of the Calgary egies set forth in the Calgary Metropolitan region required simulation of rural and muni- Plan and other municipal planning documents cipal residential development as well as other to shift to a more compact development influential land uses (agriculture, energy, for- form. Densification of existing residen- estry, transportation) and natural disturb- tial footprint accommodated 25% of popula- ances such as wildfire. The current compos- tion growth, except in Calgary where densifi- ition of each cell was calculated from spatial cation gradually increased to 50% as per the land cover and development ‘footprint’ in- Calgary Municipal Development Plan. The
20 ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 EXPLORING CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF REGIONAL URBAN GROWTH STRATEGIES
Calgary Metropolitan Plan Principle Indicator Phosphorous, nitrogen, and sediment runoff Water use relative to licensed diversions Anthropogenic footprint area and edge Phosphorous, nitrogen, and sediment runoff Ecological connectivity index Biotic carbon storage Wetland area Population density Settlement footprint Population density Human health Farmland area Infrastructure construction cost Infrastructure construction cost
Table 1: Indicators and Corresponding Calgary Metropolitan Plan Principles Selected for Scenario Modeling (Note – the current paper reports on a representative subset of this list) location of densification followed municipal by calculating nutrient (phosphorous) runoff, plans and was also influenced by the availabil- using coefficients (kg/km2/year) derived for ity of redevelopment opportunities. Popula- the region’s natural and anthropogenic cov- tion growth not accommodated through den- er types (Donahue 2013). Anthropogenic fea- sification occurred in new developments that tures such as municipal footprint tend to have adopted proposed minimum density stan- higher rates of runoff, and elevated nutrient dards (60 and 30 people/km2 in urban and runoff can contribute to eutrophication, as well rural areas, respectively) and were located in as water treatment cost (ALCES Group, 2014). priority urban development areas and rural The cost of elevated nutrient runoff was es- development nodes. timated by applying cost coefficients for their removal at a water treatment facility ($25.45/ Reporting on Indicators kg phosphorous; ALCES Group 2014). To con- In consultation with the CRP, a variety of so- sider economic consequences of municipal cial, environmental, and economic indicators development pattern, construction costs for were selected for the analysis to link with CMP road, water, and sewer were calculated using principles. The full list of indicators includ- cost coefficients ($/km2/year) derived previ- ed in the scenario analysis is provided in Table ously for the region (IBI Group 2009). Reduced 1. In this paper we report on a subset of indi- risk to individuals of being overweight or obese cators to illustrate the utility of the approach: in response of densification was calculated anthropogenic footprint, ecological connectiv- using a relationship derived from health and ity, nutrient runoff, infrastructure construction population data from 33 cities across Canada. cost, and human health. While approximate, the relationship is con- Ecological connectivity (Quinn et al. 2014) sistent with numerous studies (e.g., Booth et was derived from percolation theory and least- al. 2005) that have found a positive associa- cost distance methods to assess how expand- tion between population density and human ing anthropogenic footprint affected perme- health due to elevated physical activity and ability among remnant natural areas. The ef- walkability. fect of land use to water quality was assessed Simulation outcomes were disseminated to
ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 21 MATT CARLSON · MICHAEL QUINN · BRAD STELFOX
Basecase - 2014
Business-as-Usual - 2064
Calgary Metropolitan Plan - 2064
Figure 3: Development footprint by growth alternative.
22 ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 EXPLORING CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF REGIONAL URBAN GROWTH STRATEGIES the Calgary Regional Partnership using AL- Economic, Social CES Online, a user-friendly web application for and Ecological Implications visualization, customization, and comparison Town and rural residential growth in the BAU of land-use simulations. A common deficien- scenario had negative long-term economic cy of previous land-use simulation models is and environmental consequences. Construc- that their complexity limits their use to a small tion of new road, water, and sewer infrastruc- group of experts. As a result, the full poten- ture to service the new developments was tial of simulation modeling is often constrained estimated to cost $26.3 billion over 50 years where it matters the most: informing those re- (Figure 4). As well, connectivity between sponsible for making land-use decisions. AL- patches of relatively intact natural cover was CES Online addresses this limitation by enhan- reduced, indicating that ecological flows are cing the accessibility of scenario analysis to likely to become increasingly inhibited, espe- planners (Carlson et al. 2014). Maps of indi- cially in the central portion of the study area cator outcomes that are included in this article around Calgary (Figures 5 & 6). Although fur- were copied from the ALCES Online interface. ther research is required to determine specific impacts, implications of diminished ecologic- RESULTS al connectivity could include reduced linkage of wildlife meta-populations and interrup- The Development Footprint tion of ecological processes such as hydro- Town and rural residential footprint currently logical flow. Another environmental impact of cover 3.1% and 2.4% of the region, respectively, the BAU scenario was degraded water quality and town industrial areas account for another due to elevated nutrient runoff. By the end 0.3%. The combined 1,015 km2 covered by of the simulation, annual phosphorous runoff these features makes settlement footprint the increased by 87.7 tonnes compared to today second most abundant anthropogenic feature with much of the elevated runoff occurring in the region behind farmland. Land currently around Calgary (Figure 7). occupied by urban and rural footprint reflects By constraining new settlement footprint to a historical landscape transformation from na- priority growth areas and rural development tive grasslands, forests and wetland commun- nodes, the CRP scenario avoided much of the ities. In the BAU scenario, settlement footprint environmental and economic cost associated increased by 670 km2 to accommodate popu- with the BAU scenario. Over the course of the lation growth (Figure 3). Settlement expan- simulation, the CMP scenario avoided 2,266 sion was greatest at the periphery of Calgary tonnes of phosphorous runoff relative to BAU and the surrounding rural area, and exceeded (Figure 7), achieving an estimated $58 mil- the more dispersed growth of footprints as- lion in water treatment cost savings over 50 sociated with forestry and energy develop- years. More impressive is the estimated $18.4 ment. As a result, loss of farmland (527 km2), billion saved over the 50 year simulation due grassland (179 km2), and wetland (15 km2) was to reduced road, water, and sewer construc- greatest in the central portion of the region. tion needs (Figure 4). Another benefit of the The CMP scenario required 53% less develop- CMP scenario is that ecological connectivity ment of new town and rural residential foot- was better maintained in the central portion print, such that 298 km2 of farmland, 110 km2 of the study area around Calgary (Figure 6). of grassland, and 8 km2 of wetland were con- Connectivity cannot be expressed as a single served relative to the BAU scenario. metric, but the maps illustrate a critical loss
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Business-as-Usual - 2064
Calgary Metropolitan Plan- 2064
Figure 5: Ecological connectivity by growth alternative. Higher levels Figure 4: Infrastructure construction cost by growth alternative. of connectivity occur in areas with lower footprint (i.e., low impedence).
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Basecase - 2014
Business-as-Usual - 2064
Calgary Metropolitan Plan - 2064
Figure 6: Ecological connectivity in the vicinity of the City of Calgary, by growth alternative (upper two maps), and ecological fl ow difference (bottom map) demonstrating the improvement in connectivity achieved by the CMP scenario. Figure 7: Phosphorous Flows by growth alternative
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Calgary Metropolitan Plan - 2064
Figure 8: Reduction in risk of being overweight or obese as achieved through population densifi cation of existing urban areas.
of potential ecological fl ows around the city. population density. The extensive suburban The effect is a long-term ecological isolation and acreage developments of the BAU scen- of the central urban area from the surrounding ario served to create large areas of low popu- region. In effect, the BAU scenario shows that lation density. A growing body of research the city becomes a ‘plug’ in the regional fl ow has identifi ed several negative social conse- of ecological goods and services. quences of low population density, includ- It is important to note, however, that eco- ing lower neighbourhood walkability lead- logical connectivity still declined and nutrient ing to reduced physical activity and degraded runoff still increased in the CMP scenario rela- human health. Constraining settlement foot- tive to today, in part due to the impacts of for- print expansion in the CMP scenario not only estry and energy development. The cumula- curtailed negative environmental and eco- tive effects of multiple land uses underscores nomic impacts, it also improved the perform- the importance of minimizing each sector’s im- ance of social indicators by increasing popula- pact (e.g., by constraining settlement expan- tion density relative to today. As an example, sion), by adopting best management practices, population densifi cation within existing town and coordinating planning across sectors to en- footprint was estimated to reduce risk of be- sure that conservation efforts from one sector ing overweight or obese relative to today. The are not negated by the impacts of others. largest reductions occurred within Calgary’s Hand in hand with the contrasting settle- downtown core, where opportunities for re- ment expansion patterns are differences in development are greatest (Figure 8).
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Figure 9: Calgary – city view.
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CONCLUSIONS structure and function of CRP will be deter- mined by the combination of growth manage- A key challenge facing planners in rapid- ment policies and how the residential market- ly changing cities and regions is selection of place responds to the different options made development patterns that promote collect- available by developers. ive benefits and reduce risks to a broad suite There is increasing evidence that society is of social, economic, and environmental val- changing in terms of its values related to resi- ues. The challenge is complex, but the imple- dential form (Tian et al. 2015). Home buyers are mentation of new and emerging information seeking communities that deliver higher levels technology can help to reduce the complexity. of societal interaction, reduced dependency on Simulation tools, such as ALCES demonstrated cars, increased opportunity for walkability, re- here, provide planners with robust methods to duced carbon footprint, expanded opportun- test policy alternatives and communicate re- ities for green space recreation within urban sults with stakeholders. ALCES also provides boundaries, and opportunities to secure local an opportunity for planners to work direct- food that meets increasing standards of en- ly with all regional interests in a participatory vironmental sustainability. Calgarians, and those approach to scenario development. Engage- who reside in surrounding communities, are be- ment across all sectors of land use is essential coming increasingly aware of the importance of in addressing cumulative effects. water (both quantity and quality) and are im- Similar to many other areas, historical poli- ploring politicians and planners to design urban cies in the Calgary region have largely promot- strategies and residential policies that recog- ed low-density expansive residential patterns nize the role and function of watersheds in de- (i.e., suburbia and low-density acreages). fining the overall “livability” of cities that receive These historical decisions have engendered their water quality and quantity from the com- many undesirable consequences, including bined activities of all land uses that occur with- loss of wetlands and productive farmland, in- in their watersheds. Furthermore, as tax payers creased commute times, unaffordable costs become more informed about the true costs of of infrastructure maintenance, reduced walk- construction and maintenance of infrastructure, ability, increased water pollution, and elevat- they are increasingly promoting urban growth ed landscape fragmentation causing reduced strategies that can be sustained against current performance of social, economic and eco- and future budgetary constraints. These val- logical processes. The BAU scenario developed ues are clearly entrenched in the planning docu- for this paper clearly demonstrates the cumu- ments of the CRP. lative effects and economic costs associated This study illustrates that the CRP is at a with such growth. cross-road, and is faced with important macro- There is, however, great opportunity for plan- architectural decisions that will define the ul- ners to embrace new residential strategies that timate form and function (“where and how”) help mitigate historical issues, and showcase an that guides how citizens will reside, move, and urban and peri-urban template better suited for live in this region in the decades to come. The the needs of CRP residents during the next cen- precise demands that future citizens place on tury. We demonstrate that the plans for more the shoulders of planners and policy makers concentrated growth proffered in the Calgary are both unknowable and evolving, and as such Metropolitan Plan are a significant improvement greater metropolitan planning has an inherent over business as usual. Ultimately, the future element of uncertainty. That said, it is clear that
28 ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 EXPLORING CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF REGIONAL URBAN GROWTH STRATEGIES the historical urban and rural design strategies in ery of the CRP strategic plan and development cities and regions such as Calgary are unlikely to of the next iteration of the Calgary Metropol- serve the future requirements of citizens whose itan Plan. The scenarios that we outline in this knowledge of social and environmental sus- paper provide a foundation from which the CRP tainability is increasing, and who wish for these can develop and test further planning and policy learnings to be embedded in sustainable urban initiatives to meet the needs of the region while and regional design. To this end, the results of protecting the values desired by residents. this study provide empirical evidence of the social, economic, and environmental benefits of design strategies that reduce urban sprawl, promote walkability, and explicitly recognize the natural capital values of the CRP. As with all modeling, the results of the scen- arios reported here are only as good as the input data. We searched a wide array of literature to develop metrics linking environmental to social and economic factors. There is clearly a need for further research to refine our understand- ing of these linkages. In particular, although it is generally accepted that relationships exist be- tween attributes of urban form (e.g., popula- tion density) and indicators related to quality of life (e.g., human health) and human behav- iour (e.g., energy use), these relationships need to be better quantified. The strength of AL- CES is that it is relatively simple to update the metrics as new and better information becomes available. Likewise, if a stakeholder objects to a certain assumption or value used in the mod- el it can be quickly changed to conduct a sensi- tivity analysis. The scenario approach and results illustrated herein help to reduce the complexity of under- Acknowledgements: The Calgary Regional standing cumulative effects. The ALCES ap- Partnership is thanked for its financial support proach is highly effective in explicit identifica- and for contributing data required for the tion of the trade-offs associated with different analysis. Land cover and footprint data were policy and planning initiatives. Moreover, the provided by ABMI and Ducks Unlimited Canada. approach provides an effective alternative to The authors also thank the following members of the incremental and siloed methods of planning the ALCES Group for contributing to the analysis: that exacerbate negative cumulative effects. Tim Barker, Teresa Raabis, Nathan Stelfox, Inayat The next challenge is to use this information to Dhaliwal, Reg Prahalad, Noah Purves-Smith, facilitate the ongoing discussion of desired fu- and Ben DeLong. Greg Chernoff of the Miistakis ture conditions for the region. The CRP will con- Institute is thanked for calculating the ecological tinue to explore the use of ALCES in the deliv- connectivity index.
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THE ALCES TOOLKIT FOR STRATEGIC LAND-USE SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Strategic land-use planning requires a holistic under- dination between disturbance types. Simulated maps of standing of the implications of the full range of an- landscape condition, resource production, and popula- thropogenic and natural processes affecting landscapes. tion are translated into environmental, economic, and The ALCES toolkit provides comprehensive yet user- social indicators using relationships such as wildlife friendly simulation of multiple overlapping land-use habitat preferences, employment associated with re- sectors through the seamless integration of three types source production, and social implications of population of software: ALCES Integrator, a Stella-based stock and density. flow model; ALCES Mapper, an ArcGIS application; and Indicator performance as simulated by ALCES Integra- ALCES Online, a web application. tor and Mapper are disseminated to planners and stake- ALCES Integrator rapidly simulates long-term, regional holders using ALCES Online, a web application for visu- land-use and natural-disturbance trajectories and their alization, customization, and comparison of land-use consequences to the area, edge, and age of natural and simulations. Through an intuitive interface and rapid anthropogenic land cover. Resource production and delivery of simulations, ALCES Online enhances the ac- supply as well as population growth are also simulated, cessibility of scenario analysis, thereby increasing its such that simulations respond to resource availability. potential to influence land-use planning. ALCES Online ALCES Mapper creates maps of regional dynamics as also provides flexibility by allowing the user to build new simulated by ALCES Integrator by tracking changes to indicators, assess outcomes at sub-regional scales (e.g., the composition of cells of user-defined size. The ini- municipalities), and explore zoning scenarios that apply tial composition of each cell is calculated from spatial different land-use strategies to portions of a study area. inventories of land cover and anthropogenic footprints. The ALCES toolkit’s flexible and accessible approach to Changes to the composition of cells are then simulated land-use scenario analysis has informed a diversity of by spatially allocating regional dynamics according to planning processes that span a range of scales, organi- the expected spatial distribution of each activity and zations, and issues. spatial characteristics such as disturbance size and coor- More information is available at www.alces.ca.
ALCES Online, a web-application for delivery of comprehensive land-use scenario analysis to stakeholders and planners.
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REFERENCES Peterson, G.D., G.S. Cumming, and S.R. Carpenter. 2003. Scenario planning: a tool for conservation in an uncertain world. ALCES Group. 2014. Temporal and Spatial Changes in the Conservation Biology 17(2): 358-366. Natural Capital of the Upper Bow River Basin, Alberta, Canada. Bragg Creek: Action for Agriculture. Shahumyan, H. et al., 2014. Regional Development Scenario Evaluation through Land Use Modelling and Opportunity Booth, K.M., M.M. Pinkston, and W.S. Poston. 2005. Obesity Mapping. Land, 3(3), pp.1180–1213. and the built environment. Journal of American Dietetic Association 105(5s): 110-117. Tian, G., Ewing, R. & Greene, W., 2014. Desire for Smart Growth: A Survey of Residential Preferences in the Salt Lake Calgary Regional Partnership. 2015a. About the Calgary Region of Utah. Housing Policy Debate, 25(3), pp.446–462. Regional Partnership. [Online] Available from: http:// calgaryregion.ca/crp/calgary-regional-partnership/about/ Weber, M., Krogman, N. & Antoniuk, T., 2012. Cumulative overview.html [Accessed: 29th June 2015] Effects Assessment: Linking Social, Ecological, and Governance Calgary Regional Partnership. Calgary Metropolitan Plan. Dimensions. Ecology and Society, 17(2). Available at: http:// 2014a. Cochrane: Calgary Regional Partnership. www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol17/iss2/art22/.
Calgary Regional Partnership 2014b. Indicators for Measuring Progress. Cochrane: Calgary Regional Partnership.
Carlson, M., T. Antoniuk, D. Farr, S. Francis, K. Manuel, J. Nishi, B. Stelfox, M. Sutherland, C. Yarmoloy, C. Aumann, and D. Pan. 2010. Informing regional planning in Alberta’s Oilsands Region with a land-use simulation model. In: D.A. Swayne, W. Yang, A.A. Voinov, A. Rizzoli, and T. Filatova (Eds.). Proceedings of the 2010 International Congress on Environmental Modeling and Software, July 2010, Ottawa, Ontario.
Carlson, M., B. Stelfox, N. Purves-Smith, J. Straker, S. Berryman, T. Barker and B. Wilson. 2014. ALCES Online: Web-delivered scenario analysis to inform sustainable land-use decisions. In: D.P. Ames, N.W.T. Quinn, and A.E. Rizzoli (Eds.). Proceedings of the 2014 International Congress on Environmental Modeling and Software, June 2014, San Diego, California. Donahue, W.F. 2013. Determining Appropriate Nutrient and Sediment Loading Coefficients for Modeling Effects of Changes in Landuse and Landcover in Alberta Watersheds. Canmore: Water Matters Society of Alberta. Game, E.T. et al., 2014. Conservation in a wicked complex world; challenges and solutions. Conservation Letters, 7(3), pp.271–277. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ conl.12050. IBI Group. 2009. The Implications of Alternative Growth Patterns on Infrastructure Costs. Calgary: City of Calgary.
Kahn, A.E., 1966. The tyranny of small decisions: market failures, imperfections, and the limits of economics. Kyklos, 19(1), pp.23–47.
Mahmoud, M. et al., 2009. A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making. Environmental Modelling & Software, 24(7), pp.798–808.
Odum, W.E., 1982. Environmental Degradation and the Tyranny of Small Decisions. BioScience, 32(9), pp.728–729.
Quinn, M.S. et al., 2014. Modeling a rapidly urbanizing regional landscape to assess connectivity of natural integrity for ecological flows. Spaces and Flows, 4(2), pp.71–83.
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KHALID SAEED
High Line in the Chelsea area, Manhattan. Photograph Urban Dynamics by Adrien Danthony. Source: https://500px.com/photo/102717477/urban-dynamics-by-adrien-danthony, retrieved on12/07/2015
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INTRODUCTION as the theoretical premises of rational choice, The field of planning began as an action-ori- marginality and equilibrium growth subsumed in ented discipline normally taught in the schools mainstream economics (Saeed 2015). In Forres- of architecture or civil engineering in many uni- ter’s models role players instead work with lim- versities. The founding fathers of planning often ited information to balance their everyday acts advocated creating new infrastructure to meet (Morecroft 1985). well-intentioned goals as a starting point for Even though it was based on the experience development (McGinn and Davis 1969). Albert of the city managers, the Urban Dynamics model Hirschman (1962), who advised many develop- did not catch on as a planning tool. The U.S. De- ing country strongmen on economic develop- partment of Housing and Urban Development ment, saw almost all infrastructure initiatives (HUD) showed some interest by supporting fur- as sources of a productive imbalance that could ther research on applications of the model, but provide opportunities for social learning for com- refused to endorse it as a city planning instru- munities and nations (Hirschman and Lindblom ment. Through personal initiatives of one of For- 2007, Rodwin and Schon 1994). Such initiative ester’s researchers, Lou Alfeld, a few cities around often involved huge opportunity costs and cre- Boston, notably Lowell, Concord and Marlbor- ated many unintended consequences. ough, used its recommendations with some suc- Urban Dynamics (Forrester 1969), on the other cess but most city planners remained critical of it hand, questioned the action-oriented perspective (Alfeld 1995). Urban Dynamics also was widely of planning by demonstrating a method to test criticized by the mainstream planning community developmental interventions before they are im- as it contradicted many of the prevalent norma- plemented so their unintended consequences can tive policies of the time, like job-creation, hous- be discerned and their efficacy assessed. It fo- ing for the poor and worker training programs cused on realistically representing the actual or- (Averch and Levine 1971, Sayer 1976). Its com- ganizational decision-making structure for deal- plexity and disregard of the prevalent models ing with specific policy issues. Forrester placed of urban and regional planning repudiated the great emphasis on using experiential information mainstream practices of the time and aroused about how people discharge their everyday roles skepticism and disbelief about its structure and while he set his model boundaries to suit the policy recommendations. specific problem behaviors he dealt with (Forres- The key findings of Urban Dynamics - namely ter 1980). His models were built from information the inefficacy of traditional interventions and provided by real world managers and largely ig- the importance of renewal of old infrastructure nored the normative concepts of planning as well - have since been interpreted in a variety of
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Figure 2: Poverty in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Source: author
ways, and have slowly been recognized as valid Forrester’s Urban Dynamics model attempts around the world (Seetharam and Yuen 2010). to explain the growth and stagnation of major The operational perspective and experimental urban metropolises in the United States. The approach to policy design it created are beyond model examines growth of an urban economy doubt of great value to a planning process that from a small town with no apparent physic- seeks to improve welfare of communities at vari- al constraints to a large city whose growth is ous regional levels without leading to unfore- constrained by land area, which can be seen as seen consequences. The model also creates new a proxy for a variety of physical resource con- insights into the developmental issues that are straints on an economy including travel time, discussed in the following sections of this paper. infrastructure, water, energy, and even the in- trinsic ability to solve problems as they arise, THE URBAN DYNAMICS MODEL in addition to land. It also disaggregates indus- AND ITS POLICY INSIGHTS try, housing and workforce into various cat- Urban Dynamics arose out of Forrester’s work egories whose composition radically differs with Boston’s city managers. It ignored the over the growth phase from the stage the regional and economic development theor- economy reaches a balance under its resource ies of the time (e. g., Isard 1960, Kindleberger constraints. Figure 1 shows the various busi- and Herrick 1958). Instead, it focused on how ness categories in the Urban Dynamics model, infrastructure aging-chains in an open urban which are new enterprises, mature businesses economy could lead to stagnation and ex- and declining industry. plored operational interventions to mitigate that problem (Saeed 2010, 2015).
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Figure 1: Business infrastructure aging chain in Urban Dynamics
Figure 2: Housing infrastructure aging chain in Urban Dynamics
Figure 3: Workforce mobility in Urban Dynamics
New enterprise creation is facilitated by low tude of factors that determine the business wage rate, presence of professionals, labor climate of the economy. availability, land availability and a bandwagon Housing is likewise divided into three cat- effect of sorts created by the growth im- egories as shown in Figure 2: premium housing, petus. New enterprises introduce innovative worker housing and under-employed housing. new products and services into the market and While the aging process drives the transforma- have a higher proportion of professionals than tion of one type of housing into the other, their the other types of businesses. New enterprises autonomous construction rates are driven by age into mature businesses that eventual- their respective demands, the expectations of ly transform into declining industry. The aging the builders to profit from their construction process of businesses is affected by a multi- and public policy.
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Figure 4: The creation of an unhealthy infrastructure composition as the urban economy matures
Figure 5: The creation of an unhealthy workforce composition as the urban economy matures
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Workers are divided into three categories too Towards the end equilibrium, the economy as shown in Figure 3, managerial/professional, of the metropolis is characterized by stagnat- workers, and the underemployed. Transfers be- ing businesses, a lack of entrepreneurial activ- tween underemployed and workers categories ity, high unemployment and dilapidated hous- are driven by jobs availability and social mobil- ing – conditions pervasive in the developing ity. Transfers from workers to managerial/pro- country economies when economic develop- fessional category are one-way and depend ment effort began as well as in mature urban also on social mobility. Changes in each popu- areas in the industrialized countries over mid- lation category are driven also by demograph- twentieth century. ic factors as well as migration. Figures 4 and 5 Seeking growth of businesses in such a show the baseline behavior of this model. scenario in an effort to raise the standard of A high proportion of new enterprises and a living of the populace may soon hit resource low proportion of declining industry charac- constraints again. The economic develop- terize the composition of economic activity in ment agenda in such conditions is therefore the growing metropolis with no resource con- not growth, but a change in the composition straints. This composition is created since new of the economy. Also, any change in this com- enterprises get a big growth impetus from re- position is difficult to realize unless some of the source munificence. They age and become ma- antiquated infrastructure (and possibly also in- ture businesses and eventually transform into stitutions) can be cleared for making room for declining industry but the rate of formation of the new ones. new enterprises is so high that the latter two Forrester proposed demolition of old hous- are maintained at a low proportion in the total ing and declining industry along with encour- mix. This composition starts changing when the agement of new enterprise as a policy pack- resource constraints start limiting new enter- age for changing the problematic composition prise formation (when land fraction occupied of the economy. Figure 6 shows a comput- exceeds 50%). As the resource constraints be- er simulation of Forrester’s model with these come more binding on the new enterprise, ma- policies implemented when the urban econ- ture businesses and declining industry become omy is in a state of maturity and stagnation. the dominant institutions in the economy. Clearing of the obsolescing infrastructure on a The workforce composition over the in- continuing basis makes room for formation of itial period of growth with few resource con- new enterprises, which changes the problem- straints is likewise characterized by a high pro- atic composition in the new equilibrium of the portion of managers and professionals that economy. Forrester saw essential for creating and man- In the new equilibrium, the economy has a aging new enterprises. There is also a relatively much lower proportion of declining industry small number of underemployed in the econ- and a much higher proportion of new enter- omy over the growth phase. The composition prises. The workforce composition also chan- of the workforce in the homeostasis reached ges as shown in Figure 7. The proportion of under the land constraint is however typified managers/professionals rises and that of by a low proportion of managers/profession- underemployed people declines considerably als and a high proportion of underemployed. over the course of change. The total output Workforce is not a limiting factor in Forrester’s of the economy is interestingly not tracked in model as it can change both through demo- Forrester’s model; hence growth of output is graphic and migratory flows. not even an issue.
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Figure 6: Change in the composition of industry created by policies to clear aging infrastructure and to encourage new enterprises
Figure 7: Change in workforce composition created by policies to clear aging infrastructure and to encourage new enterprises
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Detroit prospered on the back of the motor industry, but now the city is in great decline. Source: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/detroit-bankruptcy-motor-city-runs-2065346
URBAN DYNAMICS LINK were formalized into constructs that aggre- TO SCHUMPETER’S CONCEPT gated individual actions and market dynam- OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION ics into the concept of rational agency (Hayek 1937, V Smith 1962). Forrester’s models can be tied to some ex- Joseph Schumpeter’s descriptive theory of tent to classical economics theories, which creative destruction sits in a Maverick niche according to Baumol (1959) described mag- that is generally excluded from or mentioned nificent dynamics of the free market system. in passing in both development economics and Urban Dynamics in particular seems to build on macroeconomics texts, although it shows a Schumpeter’s concept of creative destruction way to break out of economic stagnation that (Schumpeter 2006), operationalizing it into a mature economies as well as developing coun- policy process. This link to a classical economic tries have experienced. Schumpeter was per- theory may not be deliberate and arises prob- haps the first economist to recognize that re- ably because those early theories came also surgence in a stagnant mature economy is from direct observation of how economic ac- driven by what he called “creative destruc- tors went about their everyday business. In- tion” (Schumpeter 2006). He suggested that deed, Adam Smith (1776) and John Stuart Mill this resurgence was an endogenously driven (1848) gave copious descriptions of how or- cyclical process, but he did not go into devising dinary people behave while they attributed a policy framework to facilitate it. He also did rational outcomes to the working of the mar- not speak to the continuance of stagnation as a ket. This important premise of theory was complex homeostasis that plagues the devel- brushed aside when the neoclassical models oping and the developed countries alike.
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Figure 8: Schumpeter’s concept of creative destruction creating renewal in stagnating economies
Figure 8 shows the structure of a simple some of those in such roles fail and return to model of Schumpeter’s creative destruction wage work. theory discussed in Saeed (2015). Unlike Marx Figure 8 also shows the investment struc- (1906), who placed capitalists and workers in ture and the role of technology implicit in separate silos, Schumpeter saw the possibility Schumpeter’s descriptive model. Schumpet- of social mobility between classes arising from er distinguished between two types of invest- entrepreneurship that would rejuvenate a de- ment that he called induced and autonomous. clining capitalist economy. Induced investment arises from the discrep- Workforce is distributed between labor, un- ancy between supply and demand and autono- employed and entrepreneurs. Social mobility mous investment from resources and tech- allows both labor and unemployed workers to nology created by the entrepreneurs. Resour- become entrepreneurs - new capitalists with ces come from un-invested savings that result potential to obtain financial resources and de- from saving up - the part of output that is velop new technologies for autonomous in- withheld from both investment and consump- vestments that resurge the economy. In equi- tion. Technology is increased by technologic- librium, there exist balancing flows between al development created by the entrepreneurs unemployed and entrepreneurs meaning some and drained by obsolescence. Output is pro- entrepreneurs return to the unemployed pool duced by capital and labor, but hiring is driven while some of the unemployed move to entre- by the need for labor created by capital. Wage preneurial roles. A similar exchange between rate is determined by labor market conditions entrepreneurs and labor implies that some of and profit is output less the wage bill. The the labor attempt entrepreneurial roles; and average rate of return is given by dividing prof-
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Figure 9: Growth and oscillation in the model of Schumpeter’s concept of creative destruction and change in the composition of workforce and capital when retirement of traditional capital is speeded up. it by the stock of capital. Together with wage for another growth cycle. Schumpeter called rate, it influences entrepreneurial climate that this process creative destruction. Experience may encourage or discourage entrepreneur- shows, however, that both developing and de- ship. It should be noted that while capital can veloped countries may get locked into a stag- be created through investment in this model, nation in which there is a large amount of ma- the total workforce is fixed that creates a cap- ture capital, a small number of entrepreneurs acity constraint. and little social mobility, which Schumpeter did The left half of Figure 8 shows the behavior not address, but Forrester’s Urban Dynamics of this model when disturbed from equilibrium spoke to. by an autonomous increase in unemployed When Forrester’s policy of proactive dis- population that depresses wage rate and im- card of old infrastructure to facilitate new proves entrepreneurial climate increasing flow enterprises is implemented even in our sim- into the stock of entrepreneurs. The resulting ple model of Schumpeter in year 90 (Figure 9, surge in autonomous investment creates eco- right half), it yields a change in the compos- nomic growth and an overshoot in output oc- ition of workforce and infrastructure similar to curs due to the delays in the system. In due urban dynamics. It increases the proportion of course, the growth tightens the labor mar- entrepreneurs (managers in Forrester’s model) ket, raising wage rate and squeezing the rate and entrepreneurial capital (new enterprises of return, which deteriorates entrepreneurial in Forrester’s model). It reduces total output climate - leading first to economic stagnation though, which although a widely used measure then decline. This once again improves the cli- of economic performance is not highly related mate factor - creating conditions appropriate to welfare of people (UNDP 2014).
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Singapore slums. Source: http://robinlow.blogspot.ro/2011/07/singapore-slums.html, retireved on 17/07/2015
URBAN DYNAMICS AS nascent systems on their way to becoming AN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT mature economies. These models define the FRAMEWORK policy problem as one to realize their growth potential as fast as possible. This can be done Contemporary development economics has by allocating scarce resources to activities with often viewed underdevelopment as a gap be- the highest yield and speeding up structur- tween the developing and the developed coun- al transformation from traditional to modern tries and has emphasized policies that should sub-economies. Furthermore, dysfunctions endeavor to overcome this gap through facili- like income inequality, governance problems, tating economic growth (Van den Berg 2001). social conflict, corruption, and lack of personal The key models used for designing growth poli- freedoms encountered on the way to maturity cies are variants of those by Harrod-Domar, must be appropriately managed. Solow and Romer, although Lewis’s model of Forrester’s Urban Dynamics model, although structural transformation is often subsumed in developed for addressing urban decay issues defining the various stages in the growth pro- in the US cities, seems to posit an alternative cess (Lewis 1958). There additionally exist sev- theory of underdevelopment and poverty. eral revisionist perspectives that add poverty As discussed in section 2, it views economic alleviation, social development and affirma- stagnation as a function of an inappropriate tive action policies to the growth agendas (To- composition of infrastructures and vocations daro and Smith 2006, Perkins et al 2001). In all that he proposes changing by demolishing old cases, the implicit assumption in these mod- infrastructure to make room for the new en- els has been that the developing countries are terprises. Indeed, Forrester’s model seems
42 ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 URBAN DYNAMICS: A SYSTEMS THINKING FRAMEWORK FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND PLANNING
Singapore downtown. Source: http://travelsort.com/blog/budget-travel-guide-to-singapore to be a progression of Joseph Schumpeter’s them better than our closed and fixed econ- classical concept of creative destruction ap- omy model of Schumpeter. Forrester assumes plied to economic development in a mature higher rates of mobility for the managers/ economy. Forrester built his model however professionals and labor than for the under- not from Schumpeter’s theoretical premis- employed, which is consistent with the con- es but from working with city managers. And, cept of poverty traps in the developing coun- following his principle of representing the tries (Azariadis 1996). Forrester’s model also stocks and flows in the model as they exist in tends towards an end equilibrium which is reality, he describes a physical system rath- characterized by stagnating businesses, a lack er than an economic theory. His infrastruc- of entrepreneurial activity, high unemploy- ture aging chains and workforce categories ment and dilapidated housing - conditions nonetheless resemble those in our model of pervasive in the developing country econ- Schumpeter in Figure 8. His model additionally omies before economic development efforts portrays a contemporary open economy with began, as well as in mature urban areas in the flexible worker and capital flows and capacity industrialized countries over the mid-twenti- constraints that affect different infrastruc- eth century. ture aging chains differently. The problematic composition includes both Since workforce can change through migra- the physical activities and the social insti- tion while capital investment can also flow in tutions. The social institutions subsume the from and out to other regions in contempor- colonial interests that emphasized produc- ary open economies (Kugler and Rappoport tion of cash commodities and the economic 2007), Forrester’s model seems to mimic planning systems that have driven past inter-
ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 43 KHALID SAEED ventions emphasizing export and specializa- CONCLUSION tion. The two together have led to misallo- cation of production resources to producing Forrester’s Urban Dynamics repudiates the too much in crowded export niches and too act-then-learn attitude underlying the well- little for the local needs (Saeed 1996, 1998). intentioned policies for urban and regional de- They include the feudal systems directing the velopment. He showed through experimen- production and distribution of income that tation with his model that many of intuitive leaves most households in abject poverty and policies were ineffective and even counter- the governance systems that deliver limited productive. He even suggested that intuition rights and freedoms to large cross-sections might mostly be wrong when examined in the of the populace. They manifest in the social context of complex relationships driving ex- class structure that excludes large cross-sec- perienced symptoms. He found that economic tions of populace from participation in entre- stagnation in the American cities was a func- preneurial activity (Sen 1999, Saeed 1994). tion of an inappropriate composition of infra- Finally, they appear the infrastructure and structures and vocations that could not be the social services systems that fill the land- changed by well-intentioned interventions. His scape and eat up maintenance budgets while Urban Dynamics model identified the struc- they mainly serve elite interests and not the ture that drove this stagnation and his experi- public. These are all candidates for acceler- ments with this model led to finding effective ated demise that should free up resources ways to break out of it. The experimental pro- for new entrepreneurial activity and for the cess he created can test the impact of intend- infrastructure and the social institutions that ed interventions thus creating a computer- support it. based learning laboratory that can potentially New enterprises can of course not be creat- save huge social and economic costs. ed without the involvement of human agents. When applied to the developing country Theodore Schultz, who shared the Nobel prize context, the Urban Dynamics model tells us in 1979 with Arthur Lewis, was probably the not to see economic development as nurturing first scholar of economic sciences to point out growth in an imaginary infant economic system that the potential of human agents has been but as recovery from stagnation in a mature under-rated in the design of economic de- economy brought to a low-welfare homeosta- velopment policies for the poor (Schultz 1961). sis by the resource and institutional constraints Supporting human effort requires serious in- that prevail in reality. Most developing econ- vestment in education, health and social ser- omies have existed for centuries and millen- vices, which have often been deemed to yield nia and can hardly qualify as nascent systems. high opportunity costs in the economic de- There is little room for growth in them as their velopment strategies pursued in the develop- landscape is filled with obsolete infrastruc- ing countries. It also requires supporting per- ture and unsuitable political and social institu- sonal liberties and freedoms as proposed by tions that create unequal entitlements and bar Amartya Sen (1999) that should help to tap participation in the economic system for large large cross-sections of the populace for de- cross-sections of potential entrepreneurs by livering the needed human agents. Forrester’s limiting their civil liberties and freedoms. The Urban Dynamics model should be augmented quintessential economic development mod- to address infrastructure also for supporting els addressing growth, structural transforma- human effort. tion, productivity improvement, specialization
44 ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 URBAN DYNAMICS: A SYSTEMS THINKING FRAMEWORK FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND PLANNING and export etc., are therefore irrelevant to the have lived close to nature in sustainable equi- mature economic systems existing in reality librium over an extended period of time with that have little room for growth unless some very little accumulation of man-made infra- of their existing baggage is cleared. In this con- structure while those vested in building dur- text, the developing country economies are able infrastructure like the Mayas, the Egyp- similar to the industrialized economies com- tians and the Chinese have gone through dy- ing to stagnation or recession as both repre- nastic cycles (Saeed and Pavlov 2008). This sent manifestations of arrival at a low wel- issue also merits further attention in future re- fare homeostasis under resource constraints. search on sustainable economic development. Schumpeter was the first to recognize the Forrester’s Urban Dynamics model moves process of creative destruction that rejuven- away from the criteria of maximizing output ates such crowded economic systems. Forres- growth, productivity and efficiency. It instead ter seems to have given that process a physic- attempts to seek transformation from a prob- al meaning and a policy framework in his Urban lematic composition of workforce and infra- Dynamics model, which should be revisited for structure that is creating stagnation to a pro- designing economic development agendas. ductive composition that delivers a progres- Using a short life for the infrastructure sive environment. Since transformation cannot yields a better distribution in both Forrester’s occur without clearing the obsolete infrastruc- and Schumpeter’s models. This also points to ture and institutions, creating incentives to pull the fact that high durability of capital goods them down should be an important part of any may lead to stagnation and deep recessions in development strategy. Urban Dynamics thus the long run. Economic development policies presents an operational model for economic should therefore include ways to discard old development, which recognizes that the de- infrastructure in addition to encouraging new veloping countries do not have infant but ag- entrepreneurial activity. This principle must also ing economies and that composition of the be extended to the metaphysical context. Thus, households and economic activities, not the institutional reform transforming currently un- aggregate measures of consumption and pro- equal entitlements to equitable ones as sug- duction, indicate health of their economy. With gested in Saeed (2011), political reform trans- appropriate modifications, it can be used to ex- forming authoritarian governance systems to plore policies that affect the behavior of ordin- those committed to civil liberties and freedoms ary actors in the system and lead to changing as suggested in Saeed (1990), and law enforce- the composition of workforce and infrastruc- ment to curb corruption and banditry as sug- ture that should transform stagnating econ- gested in Saeed et al (2014) should replace the omies to progressive ones. current agendas that are not cognizant of the root causes of poverty and low welfare. Last, but not least, capital with short life also leads to a lower accumulation of the stock of capital, which might be environment-friendly. Forrester has advocated reduction in popula- tion and capital stock for sustaining mankind in his World Development model (Forrester 1971). This proposition is borne out by the fact that medieval societies like the Native Americans
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REFERENCES
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Azariadis, C. 1996. The economics of poverty traps. Journal Perkins DH, Radelet S, Snodgrass DR, Gillis M, Roemer M. of Economic Growth. 1(4): 449–486. 2001. Economics of Development. WW Norton, New York, NY.
Baumol W. 1959. The classical dynamics. In Economic Rodwin L, Schon DA. 1994. Rethinking the development Dynamics. 2nd ed. The Macmillan Company, New York. Ch. 2: experience: Essays Provoked by the work of Albert O Hirshman. 13-21. The Brooking Institution, Washington DC.
Forrester JW. 1969. Urban Dynamics. MIT Press, Saeed K. 1990. Government Support of Economic Agendas Cambridge, MA. in Developing Countries: A Behavioral Model. World Development. 18(6): 785-801. Forrester JW. 1971. World Dynamics. Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge, MA. Saeed K. 1994. Development Planning and Policy Design: A System Dynamics Approach. Aldershot, England: Ashgate/ Forrester JW. 1980. Information sources for modelling the Avebury Books. national economy. Journal of the American statistical asociation. 75(371): 555-566. Saeed K. 1996. Sustainable Development, Old Conundrums, New Discords, Jay Wright Forrester Award Lecture. System Hayek, FA. 1937. Economics and knowledge. Economica. Dynamics Review. 12(1): 59-80. 4(13): 33-54
Hirschman AO. 1962. The strategy of economic development. Saeed K. 1998. Sustainable Trade Relations in Global Yale University Press, New Haven CT. Economy. System Dynamics Review. Special Edition on Sustainable Development. 14(2): 107-128 Hirschman AO, Lindblom CE. 2007. Economic development, research and development policy- making: Some converging Saeed K. 2010. Economic Development, Creative views. Syst. Res. 7: 211–222. Destruction and Urban Dynamics: A Proposal for Rethinking Developmental Agendas. Proceedings of 2010 International Isard W. 1960. Methods of Regional Analysis, An Introduction to System Dynamics conference. Seoul, Korea: System Dynamics Regional Science. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA Society.
Kindleberger CP, and Herrick C. 1958. Economic Development. Saeed K. 2011. Dynamics of Income Distribution in a Market McGraw-Hill, New York. Economy: Possibilities for Poverty Alleviation. In Meyers R (Ed.). Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics. Springer Kugler M, Rappoport, H. 2007. International labor and capital Verlag, New York. pp 163-189 flows: Complements or substitutes? Economics Letters. 94:155–162 Saeed K. 2015. Jay Forrester’s operational approach to economics. System Dynamics Review. 30(4): 233-261. Lewis WA. 1958. Economic Development with unlimited supply of labor. In Agarwala, I., and Singh, SP (eds.) The Saeed, K., Pavlov, O., Skorinko, J., Smith, A. 2014. Farmers, Economics of Underdevelopment. Oxford University Press, Bandits and Soldiers: A generic system for addressing peace London agendas. System Dynamics Review. 29(4): 237–252.
Marx, Karl. 1906. Capital, A Critique of Political Economy. Saeed K, Pavlov O. 2008. Dynastic cycle: A generic structure Fredrick Engles (ed.). Random House, Charles H. Kerr and describing resource allocation in political economies, markets Company, New York, NY and firms. Journal of Operations Research Society. 59(10): 1289-1298. McGinn N, Davis R. 1969. Build a mill, build a city, build a school: Industrialization, urbanization and education in Ciudad Sayer RA. 1976. A Critique of Urban Modelling. Progress in Guayana. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. Planning. 6(3): 187-254.
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Van den Berg H. 2001. Economic Growth and Development. McGraw Hill – Irwin, New York, NY.
ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 47 BERGERSON ET AL DESIGNING FUTURE CITIES LakeSIM INTEGRATED DESIGN TOOL FOR ASSESSING SHORT- AND LONG-TERM IMPACTS OF URBAN SCALE CONCEPTUAL DESIGNS
JOSHUA BERGERSON · RALPH T. MUEHLEISEN BO RODDA · JOSHUA A. AULD · LEAH B. GUZOWSKI JONATHAN OZIK · NICHOLSON COLLIER
48 ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 DESIGNING FUTURE CITIES
INTRODUCTION
Researchers at the United States Department of Energy’s Argonne National Laboratory are working with local developers to create the Lakeside Sustainable Infrastructure Model (LakeSIM), a sophisticated computer program which might change the way the detailed plan- ning and design of cities is performed. The traditional planning approach called for a series of investigations which generally in- cluded: 1. Identification of the general program for the city or project; 2. Analysis of the site; 3. Identification of the infrastructure, housing and service requirements; 4. Initial design of the pro- ject; 5. Identification of implementation phases; and, 6. Detailed site design and engineering by phase. The first five steps in this approach are intended to investigate a limited number of city design, infrastructure and service alternatives in a sequential and reductive manner. The goal of the first five steps is to dictate the organization and composition of each construction phase. Currently the job of the last step is to fine tune the design elements and engineer them to the actual site. However, the inability to conduct detailed, designed, and engineered examinations of a large number of alternatives at this final de- tailed design and engineering step can produce unintended outcomes such as expensive long term operating costs or the need to later re- Rendering of Lakeside Development. Courtesy of Skidmore, Owings & Merrill generate sections of the project due to climate
ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 49 BERGERSON ET AL
`Q1 .Q`:`$V1 1V
600
500
400
300
200 Asia Latin America and 100 the Caribbean Africa Europe
%IGV`Q` 1CC1QJC%Q]%C: 1QJ1 1V 0 North America 1950 1975 2000 2015 Figure 1: Growth of million plus population cities by continent
changes impacts or emerging technological ad- (see the following case study), they could be vances. The use of LakeSIM might revolutionize most useful in regions where increasing urban- this fi nal step. ization is occurring. At the start of the twentieth LakeSIM is being developed as a tool to help century, 16 cities in the world had populations of professionals understand the short and long one million or more, nearly all of which were in term effects of various design aspects by mod- either Europe or North America.2 In 1950, 72 cit- eling the highly complex interdependencies be- ies in the world boasted one million plus popula- tween the various major infrastructural systems tions, and this ballooned to 195 by 1975 and while still allowing designers to visualize the nearly 400 by 2000. The number of million plus aesthetics of the urban environment in a 3-D population cities was projected to reach nearly modeling platform. Its capability to evaluate 550 by 2015, with the majority of these new mil- “what if” scenarios, including infrastructure sys- lion plus population cities in Africa and Asia as tem interactions, will be particularly important seen in Figure 1. when evaluating design alternatives and trying Accommodating this growth in an urban set- to allocate limited resources while maintaining ting will require the provision of energy, trans- high levels of sustainability. To date, it quickly portation, potable water, food and other infra- performs analysis of energy and transportation structure services that strain fi nite resources. impacts so that the advantages and constraints Furthermore, existing infrastructure will require of different build-out scenarios can be quanti- not only continued expansion, but complete re- fi ed. Plans have been formed to expand the an- design in certain situations, especially with an alysis to include the analysis of energy supply, eye towards environmental concerns related to water, and other systems. water and energy consumption, pollution, and The need for such a tool is great as more and carbon emissions. The application of design more cities are being developed. A hundred tools, like the one described in this article, could years ago, one out of every fi ve people lived in result in substantial energy savings, reduced car- urban areas. By 2050, that number will balloon bon emissions and water consumption, and more to over four out of fi ve.1 While tools like LakeSIM effective use of resources in addition to reduced have utility in slower growing areas of the world construction costs due to improved engineering.
50 ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 Figure 2: Aerial photographs of the South Works site from 1938 during a time of high steel production and 1998 several years after closing. Source: For the 1938 aerial - Illinois Historical Aerial Photography 1937-1947 Database, Illinois Natural Resources Geospatial Data Clearinghouse, Illinois State Geological Survey, http://isgs.illinois.edu/nsdihome/webdocs/ilhap/ (Last accessed April 21, 2015).For the 1998 aerial - 1998-2001 Illinois Digital Orthophoto Quadrangle Data Database, Illinois Natural Resources Geospatial Data Clearinghouse, Illinois State Geological Survey, http://isgs.illinois.edu/nsdihome/webdocs/doqs/ (Last accessed April 21, 2015)
ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 51 BERGERSON ET AL
CASE STUDY: CHICAGO This site presents a unique opportunity due LAKESIDE DEVELOPMENT to its proximity to downtown Chicago, Lake Michigan, and the Calumet River, the scale At present, LakeSIM is being used to facilitate of the site, as well as the absence of exist- the design of a project located 9 miles south ing infrastructure. Lakeside is a massive blank of downtown Chicago, in the USA. The Chi- canvas and a fantastic potential to be a hotbed cago Lakeside Development, led by develop- of innovative urban design. ers McCaffery Interests, aims to redevel- op the 600 acre brownfield site of a former Lakeside Development steel mill with a robust mixed use develop- Today, the 600 acre site is in the master plan- ment program. ning stage. Called “The Chicago Lakeside De- velopment”, it was conceived by develop- Site History ers McCaffery Interests and aims to revitalize In 1880, the North Chicago Rolling Company Chicago’s south side by bringing new ser- purchased 75 acres at the mouth of the Calu- vices, jobs, and residences to a dilapidated, met River on Lake Michigan to optimize the unserved area in the third largest city in the cost effectiveness of shipping raw materi- United States of America. The largest impacts als required for the steel production process.3 to the immediate neighborhood will be an in- Throughout its operation the plant grew in size flux of service and construction jobs, as well as the mill dumped steel slag into Lake Mich- as bringing grocery stores to an area where igan and slowly expanded the site to near- food stores are very limited. The program calls ly 600 acres4. After over a century of oper- for the construction of 13,500 residential units ation and multiple name changes, the U.S. accommodated by single family dwellings and Steel South Works site shut down operations multifamily mid- and high-rise units. It also in 1992. At the peak of operation, the mill em- envisions the development of 17,500,000 SF ployed more than 20,000 and was one of the of retail space and the construction of near- main sources of prosperity for the south side ly 125 acre of public park space and bike paths, of Chicago. Figure 2 is a set of aerial photos along with a 1,500-slip boat marina. This will taken in 1938 when output was fairly high and not only promote a green urban environment, 1998, six years after closing. As seen in the extending the public park land found along 1998 photo, nearly all the buildings have been Lake Michigan throughout Chicago, but will demolished and removed from the site. also restore the natural beauty of the site. In preparation of redevelopment of the site, With a build-out of approximately 30 years, U.S. Steel spent over $7M in environmental the total cost of the project is estimated to remediation as part of the Illinois EPA Site Re- be $4 Billion. mediation Program5. In 2010 the City of Chi- Unfortunately, the sheer size of the de- cago created a Tax Incremental Financing (TIF) velopment also presents several challenges. district to support infrastructure develop- For decades, urban planners and developers ment at the site and recently completed ex- have relied upon intuition to guide their deci- tension of the historic Lakeshore Drive (U.S. sion-making process. But this “sixth sense” is Highway 41) further south, so that it now bi- significantly less effective for larger-scale de- sects the site and is finishing an interchange velopments where hundreds of buildings and improvement to Interstate 90 to further im- dozens of interconnected services will res- prove access to the site. ide over the course of decades. Realizing the
52 ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 DESIGNING FUTURE CITIES
City Engine CGA Rule Files Additional External Site Information Site, Zoning, and Visualization Rule Files Building Existing Roads Site Plan and Footprints and Buildings Zoning (AutoCad) Zoning and Lot Building (AutoCad) Specications CGA Construction CGA
Road Visualization CGA Construction CGA
Database
City Engine EECalc Building Templates
City Engine CGA Rule Files Generic Buiding Reference Rule Files
New Hotel High Report Rise Building (CGA) Python .ism New Primaryrimary School Buildingilding Python Building EECalc Results to CGA Tool CGA) Export Tool Residentialden Building CGA Commercialer Building CGA
Building EECalc (.ism) Weather File Description Building Energy (.epw) File (.ism) Simulation
Figure 3: Flow diagram for the LakeSIM building energy prediction workfl ow
grand scale complexities of this project, Mc- understanding of the long-term impacts of Caffery Interests have partnered with re- design decisions on energy and transportation searchers to develop a tool to facilitate this demands for the Chicago Lakeside Develop- large scale urban design. ment project. To address the uncertainty of large-scale LakeSIM – Initially Focused planning with so many complex variables, on Energy Effi ciency LakeSIM creators have prototyped a new The U.S. Department of Energy’s Argonne Na- platform that seeks to help developers plan tional Laboratory and the University of Chi- at massive scales while anticipating the abil- cago, through a partnership with the Chica- ity to build in future scenarios such as climate go-based architectural and engineering design change, improved effi ciency in buildings and fi rm Skidmore, Owings & Merrill, and the Clean transportation systems, and increased renew- Energy Trust, are developing tools that merge able energy and/or micro-grid applications. To urban design with scientifi c analysis to improve date, the majority of the work on LakeSIM has the decision-making process associated with been integrating energy modeling software for large-scale urban developments. One such analyzing demand side energy requirements tool, called Lakeside Sustainable Infrastructure and transportation impacts based on proposed Model, or LakeSIM, has been prototyped with city planning. an initial focus on consumer-driven energy and LakeSIM employs the specifi cations of doz- transportation demand. LakeSIM sprang from ens of building design types supplied by the the need to answer practical questions about Department of Energy and Skidmore, Owings urban design and planning, requiring a better & Merrill. Each building type features unique
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LAKESHORE DRIVE
LAKESHORE DRIVE 2013 LAKEFRONT LAKE MICHIGAN 79TH STREET PARK 2015 CIVIC CENTER 2017-2020
MARKET COMMONS PHASE 1 2015-2017 81ST STREET PHASE 2 2025-2035 51 ACRES / 11 M GSF
RES A 2015-2017 12 ACRES 2MGSF
CENTRAL PARK
RD 83 STREET RES C 2020-2025 LAKESHORE RES B 45 ACRES / 5.6 M GSF CORRIDOR A 2017-2019 2017-2022 8ACRES 18 ACRES / 3.8 M GSF .75 M GSF
NORTH NORTH SLIP NORTH MARINA SLIP A SLIP B 2015 2022-2025 2025-2030 OMREAVENUE COMMERCE 9ACRES/3MGSF 15 ACRES / 5 M GSF
CHARTER ORE WALL A ORE ORE WALL B WAL L 2025-2030 HIGH SCHOOL 2015-2017 PARK 17 ACRES / 1.7 M GSF 2018 7ACRES/1.2MGSF 13 ACRES MARINA 2030 87TH STREET LAKESHORE INNOVATION MARINA DISTRICT 2 HOUSING CORRIDOR B 2017-2020 2020-2030 2020-2025 12 ACRES / 2.1 M GSF 22 ACRES / 2.6 M GSF 14 ACRES / 1.5 M GSF
INNOVATION CIVIC DISTRICT 1 ADVANCED 2015-2017 MANUFACTURING 2 CENTER 11 ACRES / 1.5 M GSF 2020-2025 2025 5ACRES 89TH STREET 14 ACRES / 1.7 M GSF ADVANCED MANUFACTURING 1 2015-2017 7ACRES/.8MGSF RIVER HOUSING COMMUNITY PARK 2020-2025 9ACRES/1.4MGSF INNOVATION DISTRICT 3 2020-2025 91ST STREET 12 ACRES / 1.0 M GSF CALUMET RIVER Primary Land Use
B
U Mixed Use
R
L E Residential
Y
A Innovation District V
E
N Advanced Manufacturing
U E Civic Open Space
CALUMET Total GFA 49 M GSF PARK
Figure 4: Site plan as imported into CityEngine
54 ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 DESIGNING FUTURE CITIES
Figure 5: Basic 3D rendering from site plan Figure 6: The LakeSIM model includes details such a zoning information (shown by colors), sidewalks, bike lanes, parking, greenspace, etc. in addition to basic road and building information
Figure 7: Zoning envelopes are created to let the designers know the maximum building size that can be allowed on the site
ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 55 BERGERSON ET AL descriptive parameters, allowing designers described by its type, basic shape, size, occu- to pick and choose different types and place pant density, hours of operation, basic building these in a virtual site map. With an emphasis mechanical and lighting systems, basic materi- on integrating scientific and engineering mod- als, and some desired design constraints such els into platforms used by industry, the pro- as window-to-wall ratio. Designers can then ject selected CityEngine, from Environment- quickly look at variations in the design through al Systems Research Institute (ESRI), as the parameter changes. For example, changing the “dashboard” through which the urban designer building size will change its total occupancy, interacts with the city designs. Computation- number of units, size of mechanical systems, al models can be invoked to analyze changes etc. Changing its shape would change the total with respect to energy demand over time. Fig- area of windows. ure 3 shows the LakeSIM workflow diagram for Once the built environment has been virtu- computing building energy use. ally designed, the program evaluates energy The future goal of this virtual map is to cre- efficiency. The electric and gas power stream- ate an interconnected virtual city where chan- ing into residences and businesses is a balanced ges to plans can be analyzed in minutes or coordination between energy suppliers and hours instead of weeks, allowing planners to energy producers. To provide planners with refine and monitor development progress as better energy demand forecasts throughout individual buildings aggregate into zones, and the life of the development, LakeSIM employs zones aggregate into residential and commer- an Energy Performance Standard Calculation cial neighborhoods. With this in mind, one of Toolkit, called EECalc, developed by Argonne the most important sectors where LakeSIM and based on the ISO 13790 standards for pre- hopes to assist in decision-making is energy. dicting energy performance of buildings. The use of LakeSIM is fairly straightforward. EECalc generates monthly estimates of a First the basic site plan is imported into CityEn- building’s thermal energy demand, and energy gine and divided into all its components: road consumption for heating, cooling, lighting, and networks, building types and sizes, etc., along appliance plug loads. As each structure has with expected construction dates as shown unique architectural features, they also have in Figure 4 and rendered in 3D to better vis- unique energy demands. EECalc uses analytics ualize buildings as shown in Figure 5. This al- that are faster, less expensive, and less data- lows designers to more easily make changes to intensive compared to conventional building building sizes, types, locations, etc. The basic energy simulation methods which allows for LakeSIM model can include things like side rapid calculation of both “what if” scenarios as walk size, bike lanes, setbacks, parking spaces, well as generating uncertainty and sensitivity medians, greenspace, etc. as shown in Figure 6. analyses. Designers can then use several built in vis- As LakeSIM calculates the interconnected- ualizations to help them understand the basic ness between each part of the plan, users can design and design options as a function of make systematic changes and see how this af- time. One such visualization is zoning “envel- fects energy demand and supply for the indi- opes” which help designers understand the vidual building, block, or for the entire region. maximum building size of the building on each A typical energy analysis might compare the lot as shown in Figure 7. energy use intensity (EUI), the zoning informa- The information about the site and buildings tion, the building areas, and the total energy is parametric as much as possible. A building is use for a section of Lakeside at a particular
56 ISOCARP · REVIEW 11 DESIGNING FUTURE CITIES
Figure 8: CityEngine Lakeside site visualization at one snapshot in time. Buildings colored by usage and type (top left), total area (top right), energy utilization index (bottom left), and total consumption (bottom right)
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