DOCSLIB.ORG

Page 1 for Further Information, Contact Integrity UK On: Enquiries

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Page 1 for Further Information, Contact Integrity UK On: Enquiries A B O U T I N T E G R I T Y U K Integrity UK is an organisation committed to preventing extremism through innovative approaches to promoting integration, cohesion and social reconciliation within the MENA region and the UK. S Y R I A I N T E L L I G E N C E R E P O R T 1st March 2018 At an emergency meeting of the Security Council on Wednesday evening, the officials of the United Nations issued severe criticisms of Russia's handling of the truce in East Ghouta and the continued shelling across the besieged suburb. The UN Under-Secretary for Humanitarian Affairs, Mark Lowcock, slammed the humanitarian corridors. He noted that neither the UN nor the International Committee of the Red Cross has managed to deliver aid during the five-hour window where the truce is active, remarking that such an undertaking is logistically impossible. According to Lowcock, over 580 civilians have been killed since the shelling started in earnest last weekend. Echoing Lowcock’s remarks, the United States' Deputy Ambassador to the UN, Kelley Curie, slammed Russia for selectively following the UNSC Resolution in “cynical, callous and in flagrant defiance” of its clauses. The UN's Special Envoy to Syria, Staffan de Mistura, noted that the UN is pushing for access into East Ghouta, warning that the alternative is another Aleppo. However, the general mood was one of pessimism, with Lowcock remarking that aid distribution across Syria has reduced due to refusals by Damascus to issue permissions. However, Syria's Ambassador to the UN, Bashar al-Jaafari, was concerned with a warning of a different nature. In a speech during the UN meeting on discussing the humanitarian situation in Syria, Jaafari warned that they had spotted trucks carrying chlorine entering through the Bab al-Hawa Border Crossing on the 20th of February. He noted that these trucks travelled to the villages of Luzah and Habt in northern Idlib and claimed that the Syrian Intelligence has evidence that the rebels will stage chemical attacks across Idlib and blame it on the Syrian Government forces within the next two weeks. Jaafari's audience reacted with visible derision to his claims. Jaafari had made similar claims of false-flag attacks in the past but his predictions have, so far, not come true. However, they have served to muddle the waters on determining who was responsible for the East Ghouta chemical attack in 2013 and the Khan Sheikoun chemical attack in 2017. According to the Russian Security Council, Turkey's Operation Olive Branch against the People's Protection Units (YPG) is the result of the US' actions. This statement comes from the Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Alexander Venediktov, who told Russian media that the US had provided advanced weapons to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), allowing these weapons to end in the hands of the YPG and encouraging separatist sentiments. Although the statement did not legitimise Turkey's operations in Afrin, it nevertheless indicated Moscow's sympathy towards Ankara. Turkey has long expressed concern about the US delivering weapons to the SDF but Washington maintained that these weapons were not ending in the hands of the YPG, a claim that Ankara did not find credible. Whether the Russian claims are true or not, the fact that Moscow is offering Ankara a sympathetic rationale at a time where Turkey is increasingly isolated from the West will play into Russian plans for peeling Turkey away from NATO. For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected] On Wednesday, US media outlet Fox News published a series of satellite photos from the northern Damascus countryside, showing the construction of a new military base supposedly under control of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The base, which includes hangars and training areas, was cited as an example of the IRGC's growing clout in Syria. However, both the pro-Opposition news outlet Zamal al-Wasl and the Times of Israel newspaper have questioned the claims, suggesting that the base is being built not for the IRGC but for the Syrian Arab Army (SAA). Zaman al-Wasl, in particular, cited a well- informed source to suggest that the base will be used as a training camp for the SAA's Special Forces. Notably, the Israeli Minister of Defence Avigdor Lieberman, had also questioned the claims made by Fox News despite the outlet’s pro-Israel slant. With the rebel group Hayy’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) on a slight rebound against the rival rebel group Jabhat Tahrir Suriya (JTS), its leaders are now looking to rally support across Idlib. Overnight, the group’s leadership called on its supporters to express solidarity with the group on social media. The group also embarked on a media campaign against the JTS, focusing in particular on the mistreatment of a number of foreign jihadist militants. The JTS, in turn, admitted that mistakes have been made and announced the opening of a complaints office to handle all reports of JTS militants mistreating foreign militants or locals. Curiously, supporters of the Islamic State (IS) have increasingly taken the role of the instigators and agitators, airing the reports and violations committed by both the HTS and the JTS on social media. Abu Taha al-Turkistani, a member of the Turkistan Islamic Party’s (TIP) Media Office, issued a statement, reiterating his group’s neutrality on the conflict between the HTS and JTS. His statements came after a number of pro-JTS and pro-Government media channels had reported that the TIP had joined in support of the HTS. He added that a fake group on the messaging application, Telegram, was responsible for the dissemination of most of this “fake news” and called on observers to exercise caution. The TIP has long been viewed as an ally of the HTS and an unofficial member of the group. The accusations, therefore, are not surprising. Furthermore, the TIP-held areas have remained relative free of infighting, likely reinforcing speculation that the two sides are allied. The continuation of such claims, however, may end up pushing the TIP closer to the HTS. Amidst these developments, clashes across Syria have continued. Heavy fighting between the YPG and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) rebels continues in Afrin. Much of the SNA's focus at the moment appears to be directed towards besieging the town of Rajo which is the focal point of clashes in the region. Overnight, the SNA captured the villages of Fakirke, Janka, Haydariyah and a number of hills north of Rajo, expanding the encirclement of the region. Further south, fighters among the SNA posted images of urban fighting teams arriving to the outskirts of Jinderes as preparations for a push into the town continue. The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) have issued a statement, announcing that the next phase of Operation Olive Branch will be launched in a few hours. It would appear that the JTS may be losing its momentum against the HTS. Over the course of Wednesday evening and Thursday, the HTS recaptured more towns and villages from the JTS, including Salva, Deir Hassan, Hazrah, Kafr Yahmul, Ram Hamdan and Zardana. The two sides also fought heavily in Ma’arat Misrin. Although there have been contradictory reports on which side came emerged victor, activist footage from the town has shown tanks and militants belonging to the HTS in the streets. Furthermore, HTS militants have executed a member of the JTS in Sarmada by the name of Abu Bilal al-Maghrabi. In East Ghouta, no announcements were made on Thursday towards the opening of humanitarian corridors, suggesting that the evacuations have been suspended. Heavy fighting in the region, however, continued. The SAA’s Tiger Forces made further gains to the south on Thursday, capturing the al-Bashoura Air Defence Base between Hawsh al-Dawahirah and the rebel-held Otaya. The rebel group Jaish al-Islam, meanwhile, announced that it had retaken a number of positions near Hawsh al-Dawahirah. However, it would appear that the SAA continues to retain a solid foothold in the area. The battle is set to intensify, as For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected] the pro-Government Liwa al-Quds militia was sighted moving towards East Ghouta and there are reports that the Palestine Liberation Army will deploy there as well. Turkish newspaper Yeni Akit claimed on Thursday afternoon that the US has deployed 600 troops in support of the Free Syrian Army (FSA)-affiliated Maghwair al-Thawra in the Tanf Base in Homs. The report came shortly after Russia intensified its criticisms of the US “occupying” parts of Syria. The report, however, should be taken with some scepticism, as Yeni Akit has been known to publish inflammatory news to pander to the supporters of the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with little evidence to support its claims. Much of the pro-Government news sources that reported on the matter have, so far, cited Yeni Akit as their source. For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected].
Load more

Recommended publications
  • American University of Beirut Detection of Fake News in the Syrian
    AMERICAN UNIVERSITY OF BEIRUT DETECTION OF FAKE NEWS IN THE SYRIAN WAR by ROAA AL FEEL A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science to the Department of Computer Science of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at the American University of Beirut Beirut, Lebanon January 2019 Acknowledgements I would like to use this opportunity to express my gratitude to everyone who supported me throughout my masters study and through the process of research- ing and writing this thesis. I would like to express my deep and sincere gratitude to my advisor Dr. Fa- tima Abu Salem for giving me the opportunity to be involved in this research project and her invaluable guidance, patience, motivation, enthusiasm, and im- mense knowledge throughout this research. I am also grateful to the members of my thesis committee for all of their guidance throughout this process; your discussion, ideas, and feedback have been absolutely invaluable. I would also like to thank my friends at AUB who have shared this experience with me for all the fun we have had in this journey. And last but by no means least, I am extremely grateful to my parents and brother for all the love, support, and constant encouragement they have provided me with throughout my years of study. This accomplishment would not have been possible without you all. Thank you. v An Abstract of the Thesis of Roaa Al Feel for Master of Science Major: Computer Science Title: Detection of Fake News in the Syrian War After almost eight years of conflict, the humanitarian situation in Syria con- tinues to deteriorate year after year.
    [Show full text]
  • Syria Peace Talks in Geneva: a Road to Nowhere
    Syria Peace Talks in Geneva: A Road to Nowhere Radwan Ziadeh March 27, 2017 Syria Peace Talks in Geneva: A Road to Nowhere Radwan Ziadeh On March 3, 2017, the United Nations’ Special Istanbul. The anti-government protests Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, concluded intensified but were not under the opposition’s the last round of Syria peace negotiations in control. At the same time, the international Geneva by saying that it was a step forward community was focused elsewhere—on the fall because it succeeded in securing a final agenda of the Qadhafi regime and its aftermath. for another round of talks. The UN Security Council was united enough to It is interesting to note that the new measure of pass Resolution 1973 to “protect the civilians” of progress in peace talks, according to the United Libya by all necessary means. However, the Nations, is to create an agenda for the next council later became divided and polarized on round of talks! This reflects exactly how the Syria when Russia and China began to veto negotiations in Geneva have become: a goal statements critical of the Syrian regime. In 2011 unto themselves, instead of providing a bridge and 2012, the council could not issue any to end the Syrian crisis, now entering its seventh condemnations of the continued violence by the year. Syrian government against its own people because Russia used its veto twice. Prelude to the Geneva Communiqué of 2012 The Syrian opposition realized the need for After the eruption of the Syrian uprising in building an international coalition outside the 2011, the Syrian opposition faced the mammoth security council which could develop some task of building and structuring itself quickly.
    [Show full text]
  • The 12Th Annual Report on Human Rights in Syria 2013 (January 2013 – December 2013)
    The 12th annual report On human rights in Syria 2013 (January 2013 – December 2013) January 2014 January 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 3 Genocide: daily massacres amidst international silence 8 Arbitrary detention and Enforced Disappearances 11 Besiegement: slow-motion genocide 14 Violations committed against health and the health sector 17 The conditions of Syrian refugees 23 The use of internationally prohibited weapons 27 Violations committed against freedom of the press 31 Violations committed against houses of worship 39 The targeting of historical and archaeological sites 44 Legal and legislative amendments 46 References 47 About SHRC 48 The 12th annual report on human rights in Syria (January 2013 – December 2013) Introduction The year 2013 witnessed a continuation of grave and unprecedented violations committed against the Syrian people amidst a similarly shocking and unprecedented silence in the international community since the beginning of the revolution in March 2011. Throughout the year, massacres were committed on almost a daily basis killing more than 40.000 people and injuring 100.000 others at least. In its attacks, the regime used heavy weapons, small arms, cold weapons and even internationally prohibited weapons. The chemical attack on eastern Ghouta is considered a landmark in the violations committed by the regime against civilians; it is also considered a milestone in the international community’s response to human rights violations Throughout the year, massacres in Syria, despite it not being the first attack in which were committed on almost a daily internationally prohibited weapons have been used by the basis killing more than 40.000 regime. The international community’s response to the crime people and injuring 100.000 drew the international public’s attention to the atrocities others at least.
    [Show full text]
  • Timeline of International Response to the Situation in Syria
    Timeline of International Response to the Situation in Syria Beginning with dates of a few key events that initiated the unrest in March 2011, this timeline provides a chronological list of important news and actions from local, national, and international actors in response to the situation in Syria. Skip to: [2012] [2013] [2014] [2015] [2016] [Most Recent] Acronyms: EU – European Union PACE – Parliamentary Assembly of the Council CoI – UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria of Europe FSA – Free Syrian Army SARC – Syrian Arab Red Crescent GCC – Gulf Cooperation Council SASG – Special Adviser to the Secretary- HRC – UN Human Rights Council General HRW – Human Rights Watch SES – UN Special Envoy for Syria ICC – International Criminal Court SOC – National Coalition of Syrian Revolution ICRC – International Committee of the Red and Opposition Forces Cross SOHR – Syrian Observatory for Human Rights IDPs – Internally Displaced People SNC – Syrian National Council IHL – International Humanitarian Law UN – United Nations ISIL – Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant UNESCO – UN Educational, Scientific and ISSG – International Syria Support Group Cultural Organization JSE – UN-Arab League Joint Special Envoy to UNGA – UN General Assembly Syria UNHCR – UN High Commissioner for LAS – League of Arab States Refugees NATO – North Atlantic Treaty Organization UNICEF – UN Children’s Fund OCHA – UN Office for the Coordination of UNRWA – UN Relief Works Agency for Humanitarian Affairs Palestinian Refugees OIC – Organization of Islamic Cooperation UNSC – UN Security Council OHCHR – UN Office of the High UNSG – UN Secretary-General Commissioner for Human Rights UNSMIS – UN Supervision Mission in Syria OPCW – Organization for the Prohibition of US – United States Chemical Weapons 2011 2011: Mar 16 – Syrian security forces arrest roughly 30 of 150 people gathered in Damascus’ Marjeh Square for the “Day of Dignity” protest, demanding the release of imprisoned relatives held as political prisoners.
    [Show full text]
  • Syrian Brotherhood Discourses on Daaʿsh
    TRADITIONAL ISLAMISM CONFRONTS A NEW ACTOR: SYRIAN BROTHERHOOD DISCOURSES ON DAAʿSH by ALYSSA GOESSLER A THESIS Presented to the Department of Social Sciences and the Robert D. Clark Honors College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Arts June 2016 An Abstract of the Thesis of Alyssa Goessler for the degree of Bachelor of Arts in the Department of Social Sciences to be taken June 2016 Title: Traditional Islamism Confronts a New Actor: Syrian Brotherhood Discourses on Daa' sh David Hollenber Exiled from the Syrian political scene for thirty years, the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood seized upon the chaos of the 2011 uprising as an opportunity to revive their dwindling political status in the country. While they have made impressive strides towards this goal, they were certainly not the only organization to utilize the conflict for political ends. Daa' sh-the infamously barbaric Jihadi-Salafi institution-began expanding its operations into Syria as early as 2012. Daa'sh utilizes highly publicized brutality, which continues to revitalize a public dialogue on Islamism, forcing organizations like the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood to grapple with a rapidly evolving political and religious landscape. This Islamist challenge combined with the Ikhwan's struggle to unite various opposition forces has muddled the rhetorical scheme of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. Add to these challenges some burgeoning internal divisions, and the result is a rhetorical blunder. In this thesis, I analyze Syrian MB public statements on Daa'sh, focusing on the rhetorical tools they rely on to respond to the political Daa'sh poses to the MB's legitimacy.
    [Show full text]
  • A Special Report on the Chemical Attack in Khan Sheikhoun - Idlib April 4, 2017
    A Special Report on the Chemical Attack in Khan Sheikhoun - Idlib April 4, 2017 About JFL Justice for Life Observatory in Deir Ezzor in a Syrian independent non-governmental non- profit organization that includes human rights Syrian activists regardless of their affiliations and ideologies. It works on documenting the violations of human rights in order to be used in the phase after war; where the collected and checked proofs will be used in the process of reconciliation and transitional justice. The observatory works constantly on the campaigns of advocacy of human rights in order to reach the desired peace. About STJ “Syrians for Truth and Justice” (STJ) is an independent, non-governmental non-profit Syrian organization. It involves a number of Syrian human rights defenders, both men and women, from different backgrounds and affiliations. The founding team also includes academics from different nationalities. STJ works for Syria where all citizens, males and females, enjoy dignity, justice and equal human rights. 2 A Special Report on the Chemical Attack in Khan Sheikhoun - Idlib April 4, 2017 Table of Contents The Legal Framework for the Prohibition of the Chemical Weapons in Armed Conflicts . 4 Prohibition of Applying Chemical Weapons and the Syrian Conflict . 5 Methodology . 6 Challenges . .. 7 Preface . .. 7 Section 1: The Locations of the Rockets Loaded with Toxic Substances . 9 Section 2: The Details of the Attack . 21 Section 3: The Symptoms . 22 Section 4: Journalists and Medics Affected by the Gas . 24 Section 5: Displacement in the Wake of Khan Sheikhoun Attack . 26 Section 6: The Victims’ Accounts . .27 Section 7: The Casualties List .
    [Show full text]
  • Forecasting the Risk of Extreme Massacres in Syria Adam Scharpf1, Gerald Schneider2, Anna Nöh3, Aaron Clauset4
    Forecasting the Risk of Extreme Massacres in Syria Adam Scharpf1, Gerald Schneider2, Anna Nöh3, Aaron Clauset4 An abundance of large data sets and improved estimation methods have enabled conflict researchers to estimate the risk of war or terrorist incidents quite precisely. However, as it is the case with the prediction of particularly violent earthquakes, forecasting extremely bloody events in ongoing conflicts has been difficult until now. This article reports how the power laws can be used to predict extreme massacres ex post and ex ante. The power law distribution that we use is based on the observation that the standard probability distributions like the normal distribution typically underestimate the risk of such escalations. Using fatality data until the end of February 2013, we calculate the probability of at least one single event with 250 or more dead civilians at 80% (59% - 94%) and between March and May 2013 of up to 48%. We discuss the ethical and practical implications of these findings and argue that the forecasts could provide a transparent risk assessment tool to decision makers. One-sided violence - civil war - power law distribution - conflict prediction - early warning - Syria 1 Doctoral student Graduate School of Economic & Social Sciences, University of Mannheim, [email protected] 2 Professor of International Politics, Department of Politics and Public Administration and Graduate School of Decision Sciences, University of Konstanz, [email protected] 3 Master student, Department of Politics and Public Administration, University of Konstanz, [email protected] 4 Assistant Professor, Department of Computer Science, University of Colorado; external faculty member Santa Fe Institute, [email protected] 1.
    [Show full text]
  • THE 13TH ANNUAL REPORT on Human Rights in Syria 2014
    The Syrian Committe for Human Rights THE 13TH ANNUAL REPORT On human rights in Syria 2014 (January 2014 – December 2014) JANUARY 2015 www.shrc.org TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface 2 Genocide: daily massacres amidst international silence 8 Syrian Prisons: arbitrary detention, forced disappearance 54 and death from torture Violations committed against health and healthcare 48 Displacement: the Syrian crisis becomes an international 97 dilemma Violations against the education sector 79 The use of internationally prohibited weapons 905 Targeting the media and journalists 929 Targeting houses of worship 965 Legal and legislative amendments 989 Preface The year 2014 was a year that saw the violations committed against the Syrian people reach a dangerous level of continuity and repetition, to the extent that they no longer attract much public attention. Even crimes such as massacres and the use of internationally prohibited weapons have become part of the Syrian people's daily lives. The report shows continuity of all the violations committed last year and in some cases an increase in these violations. This excludes the use of chemical weapons, which was replaced this year by the use of poisonous gas. The year 2014 was the bloodiest in the last 4 years as more than 60.000 Syrians were killed this year alone. However, international and local reactions to these on-going violations were the weakest. One of the main factors that played a major role in Syria this year was the presence of the Islamic State in Iraq and Sham (ISIS). The largest massacre this year was committed by ISIS when it attacked the al-Sh'eitat tribe in August.
    [Show full text]
  • 14.0 Introduction to Forever War
    2 Labyrinth: Forever War 14.0 Introduction toForever War Labyrinth: The Forever War, 2015 - ? is a 1-2 player card-driven boardgame simulating at the strategic level the ongoing bid by Islamist extremists to impose their brand of religious rule on the Muslim world. It continues where Labyrinth: Awakening, 2010 - ? left off and adds new event cards and rules to cover the last five T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S years of history. Since publication of Labyrinth and its first ex- Game Component List ............................................................... 2 pansion, Labyrinth: Awakening, fans of the game have expressed Credits ........................................................................................ 2 a desire to update it based on more recent events, and a variety 14.0 Introduction to Forever War ............................................ 2 of event card ideas and variants have been freely shared online. 15.0 What’s Changed? ............................................................. 2 This second expansion to the Labyrinth game series fulfills that 16.0 Solitaire Play .................................................................... 4 continuing interest by providing up-to-date event cards and allows Scenarios .................................................................................... 5 the game to continue to serve as an effective strategic level model of the ongoing struggles in the Muslim world. First Time into the Maze: Beginner Strategy in Lab: Awk ......... 10 Designer’s Notes .......................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Download (PDF)
    N° 03/2017 recherches & documents mai 2017 The Shayrat Connection: Was the Khan Shaykun Chemical Attack Inevitable but Preventable? CAN KASAPOGLU WWW . FRSTRATEGIE . ORG Édité et diffusé par la Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique 4 bis rue des Pâtures – 75016 PARIS ISSN : 1966-5156 ISBN : 978-2-911101-96-0 EAN : 9782911101960 WWW.FRSTRATEGIE.ORG 4 BIS RUE DES PÂTURES 75 016 PARIS TÉL. 01 43 13 77 77 FAX 01 43 13 77 78 SIRET 394 095 533 00052 TVA FR74 394 095 533 CODE APE 7220Z FONDATION RECONNUE D'UTILITÉ PUBLIQUE – DÉCRET DU 26 FÉVRIER 1993 SOMMAIRE INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 5 BRIEF TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE KHAN SHAYKUN ATTACK ............................................ 6 THE CHEMICAL BLITZ .............................................................................................................. 8 THE REGIME’S TOP CHAIN OF COMMAND: MANAGING THE CHEMICAL WARFARE CAPABILITIES .. 9 MILITARY GEOSTRATEGIC CONTEXT OF THE CW USE IN SYRIA ................................................10 CARRYING OUT THE DIRTY JOB: TACTICAL LINK OF THE WMD CHAIN ......................................14 THE SUSPECTED AIR FORCE LINK ..........................................................................................14 CALLING IN THE CHEMICAL STRIKE .........................................................................................15 CONCLUSION .........................................................................................................................18
    [Show full text]
  • A Press Statement About the Khan Sheikhoun Chemical Attack in Idlib Province the Joint Report by Syrians for Truth and Justice-S
    A Press Statement about the Khan Sheikhoun Chemical Attack in Idlib Province The joint report by Syrians for Truth and Justice-STJ and Justice for Life Organization about the Khan Sheikhoun chemical attack, located in Idlib province on April 4, 2017, documented up to 103 casulties and more than 450 injured people as a result to the city bombardment with poisnous chemicals by war aircrafts affiliated to the Syrian air force, according to everyone’s accounts whom the (field research team) interviewed. This is the second largest toxic chemical attack in Syria follwoing the largest apocalyptic of the Eastern Ghouta chemical attack in Damascus countryside and in al-Mo’adamya on August 21, 2013. The 41-page report is based in its methodology on more than 15 accounts and interviews which the (field research team), authorized by the two organizations, was tasked to go tho the city to inspect the area and meet the survivors, the injured, eyewitnesses, medical staffs, the Civil Defense teams and families of the dead; all with an integrated complete plan about the people who should be interviewed to get as much information as possible. In addition, the team perpared and wrote the final copy of the report after analyzing dozens of video tapes and images especially those related to the dead or the injured in order to verify their credibility and check the symptoms that were shown on the wounded or the casaulties. The report detailed many symptoms that showed on the victims and on the dead in the attack according to accounts of the doctors and the injured, as well as znalysis of video tapes and images.
    [Show full text]
  • Regime Crackdown in Syria (2011–2017) - Unpacking Violence Against Civilians
    FFI-RAPPORT 18/01990 Regime crackdown in Syria (2011–2017) - unpacking violence against civilians Eline Knarrum Bostad Regime crackdown in Syria (2011–2017) – unpacking violence against civilians Eline Knarrum Bostad Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI) 16 October 2018 FFI-RAPPORT 18/01990 1 Keywords Syria Krig Scenarioer FFI-rapport 18/01990 Prosjektnummer 134201 ISBN P: 978-82-464-3118-5 E: 978-82-464-3119-2 Approvers Alf Christian Hennum, Research Manager Iver Johansen, Principal Scientist The document is electronically approved and therefore has no handwritten signature. Copyright © Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI). The publication may be freely cited where the source is acknowledged. 2 FFI-RAPPORT 18/01990 Summary This report sets out to explore and explain the overwhelming violence against civilians in Syria carried out by the regime and its allies from the beginning of the uprisings in 2011 until the end of 2017. The report employs the scenario-based framework developed by the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment (FFI) in trying to better understand the type of threats civilians in Syria have been subject to at different times and in different places throughout the armed conflict. The report finds that violence against civilians in Syria can be divided into five phases, each representing an escalation in the regime’s violence, and each portraying qualitative differences in the ways in which civilians have been targeted. It concludes that the regime’s overarching motivation for targeting civilians throughout the conflict has been its own survival. Simultaneously, it shows how a number of overlapping motivations and a diversification of threats seem to have guided the regime’s targeting of civilians.
    [Show full text]