A B O U T I N T E G R I T Y U K Integrity UK is an organisation committed to preventing extremism through innovative approaches to promoting integration, cohesion and social reconciliation within the MENA region and the UK. S Y R I A I N T E L L I G E N C E R E P O R T 1st March 2018 At an emergency meeting of the Security Council on Wednesday evening, the officials of the United Nations issued severe criticisms of Russia's handling of the truce in East Ghouta and the continued shelling across the besieged suburb. The UN Under-Secretary for Humanitarian Affairs, Mark Lowcock, slammed the humanitarian corridors. He noted that neither the UN nor the International Committee of the Red Cross has managed to deliver aid during the five-hour window where the truce is active, remarking that such an undertaking is logistically impossible. According to Lowcock, over 580 civilians have been killed since the shelling started in earnest last weekend. Echoing Lowcock’s remarks, the United States' Deputy Ambassador to the UN, Kelley Curie, slammed Russia for selectively following the UNSC Resolution in “cynical, callous and in flagrant defiance” of its clauses. The UN's Special Envoy to Syria, Staffan de Mistura, noted that the UN is pushing for access into East Ghouta, warning that the alternative is another Aleppo. However, the general mood was one of pessimism, with Lowcock remarking that aid distribution across Syria has reduced due to refusals by Damascus to issue permissions. However, Syria's Ambassador to the UN, Bashar al-Jaafari, was concerned with a warning of a different nature. In a speech during the UN meeting on discussing the humanitarian situation in Syria, Jaafari warned that they had spotted trucks carrying chlorine entering through the Bab al-Hawa Border Crossing on the 20th of February. He noted that these trucks travelled to the villages of Luzah and Habt in northern Idlib and claimed that the Syrian Intelligence has evidence that the rebels will stage chemical attacks across Idlib and blame it on the Syrian Government forces within the next two weeks. Jaafari's audience reacted with visible derision to his claims. Jaafari had made similar claims of false-flag attacks in the past but his predictions have, so far, not come true. However, they have served to muddle the waters on determining who was responsible for the East Ghouta chemical attack in 2013 and the Khan Sheikoun chemical attack in 2017. According to the Russian Security Council, Turkey's Operation Olive Branch against the People's Protection Units (YPG) is the result of the US' actions. This statement comes from the Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Alexander Venediktov, who told Russian media that the US had provided advanced weapons to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), allowing these weapons to end in the hands of the YPG and encouraging separatist sentiments. Although the statement did not legitimise Turkey's operations in Afrin, it nevertheless indicated Moscow's sympathy towards Ankara. Turkey has long expressed concern about the US delivering weapons to the SDF but Washington maintained that these weapons were not ending in the hands of the YPG, a claim that Ankara did not find credible. Whether the Russian claims are true or not, the fact that Moscow is offering Ankara a sympathetic rationale at a time where Turkey is increasingly isolated from the West will play into Russian plans for peeling Turkey away from NATO. For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected] On Wednesday, US media outlet Fox News published a series of satellite photos from the northern Damascus countryside, showing the construction of a new military base supposedly under control of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The base, which includes hangars and training areas, was cited as an example of the IRGC's growing clout in Syria. However, both the pro-Opposition news outlet Zamal al-Wasl and the Times of Israel newspaper have questioned the claims, suggesting that the base is being built not for the IRGC but for the Syrian Arab Army (SAA). Zaman al-Wasl, in particular, cited a well- informed source to suggest that the base will be used as a training camp for the SAA's Special Forces. Notably, the Israeli Minister of Defence Avigdor Lieberman, had also questioned the claims made by Fox News despite the outlet’s pro-Israel slant. With the rebel group Hayy’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) on a slight rebound against the rival rebel group Jabhat Tahrir Suriya (JTS), its leaders are now looking to rally support across Idlib. Overnight, the group’s leadership called on its supporters to express solidarity with the group on social media. The group also embarked on a media campaign against the JTS, focusing in particular on the mistreatment of a number of foreign jihadist militants. The JTS, in turn, admitted that mistakes have been made and announced the opening of a complaints office to handle all reports of JTS militants mistreating foreign militants or locals. Curiously, supporters of the Islamic State (IS) have increasingly taken the role of the instigators and agitators, airing the reports and violations committed by both the HTS and the JTS on social media. Abu Taha al-Turkistani, a member of the Turkistan Islamic Party’s (TIP) Media Office, issued a statement, reiterating his group’s neutrality on the conflict between the HTS and JTS. His statements came after a number of pro-JTS and pro-Government media channels had reported that the TIP had joined in support of the HTS. He added that a fake group on the messaging application, Telegram, was responsible for the dissemination of most of this “fake news” and called on observers to exercise caution. The TIP has long been viewed as an ally of the HTS and an unofficial member of the group. The accusations, therefore, are not surprising. Furthermore, the TIP-held areas have remained relative free of infighting, likely reinforcing speculation that the two sides are allied. The continuation of such claims, however, may end up pushing the TIP closer to the HTS. Amidst these developments, clashes across Syria have continued. Heavy fighting between the YPG and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) rebels continues in Afrin. Much of the SNA's focus at the moment appears to be directed towards besieging the town of Rajo which is the focal point of clashes in the region. Overnight, the SNA captured the villages of Fakirke, Janka, Haydariyah and a number of hills north of Rajo, expanding the encirclement of the region. Further south, fighters among the SNA posted images of urban fighting teams arriving to the outskirts of Jinderes as preparations for a push into the town continue. The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) have issued a statement, announcing that the next phase of Operation Olive Branch will be launched in a few hours. It would appear that the JTS may be losing its momentum against the HTS. Over the course of Wednesday evening and Thursday, the HTS recaptured more towns and villages from the JTS, including Salva, Deir Hassan, Hazrah, Kafr Yahmul, Ram Hamdan and Zardana. The two sides also fought heavily in Ma’arat Misrin. Although there have been contradictory reports on which side came emerged victor, activist footage from the town has shown tanks and militants belonging to the HTS in the streets. Furthermore, HTS militants have executed a member of the JTS in Sarmada by the name of Abu Bilal al-Maghrabi. In East Ghouta, no announcements were made on Thursday towards the opening of humanitarian corridors, suggesting that the evacuations have been suspended. Heavy fighting in the region, however, continued. The SAA’s Tiger Forces made further gains to the south on Thursday, capturing the al-Bashoura Air Defence Base between Hawsh al-Dawahirah and the rebel-held Otaya. The rebel group Jaish al-Islam, meanwhile, announced that it had retaken a number of positions near Hawsh al-Dawahirah. However, it would appear that the SAA continues to retain a solid foothold in the area. The battle is set to intensify, as For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected] the pro-Government Liwa al-Quds militia was sighted moving towards East Ghouta and there are reports that the Palestine Liberation Army will deploy there as well. Turkish newspaper Yeni Akit claimed on Thursday afternoon that the US has deployed 600 troops in support of the Free Syrian Army (FSA)-affiliated Maghwair al-Thawra in the Tanf Base in Homs. The report came shortly after Russia intensified its criticisms of the US “occupying” parts of Syria. The report, however, should be taken with some scepticism, as Yeni Akit has been known to publish inflammatory news to pander to the supporters of the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with little evidence to support its claims. Much of the pro-Government news sources that reported on the matter have, so far, cited Yeni Akit as their source. For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected].