The Soldier’s Dilemma: Military Responses to Uprisings in Jordan, Iraq, Bahrain, and Syria by Dorothy Smith Ohl B.A. in Political Science and Islamic Civilization and Societies, May 2009, Boston College M.A. in Political Science, August 2014, The George Washington University A Dissertation submitted to The Faculty of The Columbian College of Arts and Sciences of The George Washington University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy August 31, 2016 Dissertation directed by Marc Lynch Professor of Political Science and International Affairs The Columbian College of Arts and Sciences of The George Washington University certifies that Dorothy Smith Ohl has passed the Final Examination for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy as of July 29, 2016. This is the final and approved form of the dissertation. The Soldier’s Dilemma: Military Responses to Uprisings in Jordan, Iraq, Bahrain, and Syria Dorothy Smith Ohl Dissertation Research Committee: Marc Lynch, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Dissertation Director Nathan J. Brown, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Committee Member Caitlin Talmadge, Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Committee Member ii © Copyright 2016 by Dorothy Smith Ohl All rights reserved iii Dedication To my mom, who taught me never to ask if something would be difficult, but rather whether I wanted to do it. iv Acknowledgements This study would not have reached the level it has without the support of many people who helped me in the field as I researched this challenging topic. I received funding from the Zeit Foundation, David L. Boren Fellowship, Cosmos Club Foundation, Project on Middle Political Science, GWU Institute for Middle East Studies, and GWU Department of Political Science and thank them for their generous financial support. In the field, many people listened to the description of my dissertation research and learned of my study, were clearly still greatly affected by the events they had witnessed and participated in, and decided to speak with me and share their stories anyway. This took great courage, and I thank them. As I researched the Syrian case study from Jordan I was greatly aided by two research assistants who kept up on our contact leads and helped me navigate the streets of Amman, Irbid, and Ramtha to find our interview locations. Their presence during those meetings was indispensible, and over tea after the interviews we often had conversations that opened up what I was studying in new ways. I would also be remiss not to extend a hearty thanks to the bedbugs that infested my first apartment in Amman. As a result of our harrowing experience my landlord took pity on me and offered to help me in any way possible moving forward. It was then that I learned he was a retired Colonel from the Jordanian military, and thus my first week into fieldwork I had a lead into a research community. My dissertation committee might be better described as a dream team. Marc Lynch never questioned my harebrained scheme to research military defections in historic and even ongoing conflicts. Instead, he constantly pushed me to be more creative v in seeking data and getting into the field. He has offered concrete advice on my writing that has helped me communicate my arguments and findings more clearly. This mentorship will stay with me for years to come. When I was accepted to GWU, and called up Nathan Brown to talk more about the PhD program, he said: “Are you the same Dot who contacted me about your senior thesis a few years ago?” This sums up his vast memory and commitment to students’ scholarship. Since Day 1 at GWU he has listened to my questions and concerns, discussed research leads, and been a beacon of positivity. He was also a really fun person to TA for. My dream team was rounded out by the addition of jedi master Caitlin Talmadge. Caitlin once showed up to a comparative politics workshop at which I was presenting, without me having asked her, and despite the fact that she attends a whole range of IR seminars and workshops. Not only did she come to this second-year’s session, she came having read the paper and prepared a series of spot-on critiques that would help me publish that work before finishing my PhD. From that time through now she has offered insights from a military studies perspective and worked to purge my writing of dangling modifiers. I also thank Stephen Biddle from GWU and Kathleen Cunningham from University of Maryland for reading this work and providing the insightful feedback that will help press it forward pass the dissertation stage. Many others at GWU and beyond have continuously supported my research and teaching, including Kimberly Morgan, Brandon Bartels, Evgeny Finkel, Yon Lupu, Mike Miller, and others. The graduate students in GWU’s Political Science Department are intellectually sharp but actually fun to be around. Jessie Anderson, Fabiana Perera, and Annelle Sheline were amazing cohort mates. Abdulwahab Al-Kayyali not only was a spectacular member of the graduate program, but also his family took me in during the vi aforementioned bedbug incident, and he exposed me to the music scene in Jordan. GWU alumni Madeleine Wells and Alanna Torres-Van Antwerp were particular mentors throughout this research and writing process as well. Finally, Holger Albrecht and Kevin Koehler have been stellar research collaborators, and also introduced me to real German beer. My mom is my longest supporter. During the PhD she delivered healthy food during stressful exam and writing periods; took care of our dog when I was in the field and when my husband was unexpectedly deployed; and was my constant cheerleader. The Ohl family and all my friends have been great supporters of my adventures as well. Malcolm, thank you for unconsciously inspiring my interest in military studies. We have been together from my first trip to study Arabic in Egypt to the defense of this dissertation nearly a decade later. In the past few years you read innumerable drafts of this study and made each one better. You helped me keep my head down when I was questioning my research. You made me comfortable when I was finishing this dissertation at nearly nine months pregnant. Most importantly, you have always made sure to celebrate every little victory along the way. I love you and thank you. And Teddy, you are a new joy in my life; thank you for giving me a deadline to finish this dissertation. vii Abstract of Dissertation The Soldier’s Dilemma: Military Responses to Uprisings in Jordan, Iraq, Bahrain, and Syria Why do some soldiers remain part of the military hierarchy during a domestic crisis, while others shirk orders, flee their positions, or defect to the opposition entirely? Existing literature on military institutionalization leads us to expect that the armed forces will either remain loyal or defect from a regime in crisis. Yet, civil conflicts are often accompanied by a fracturing of the military into both loyal and disloyal units, as was the case in Iraq (1991) historically and Yemen and Libya (2011) amid the Arab Spring, for example. Alternative arguments suggest that individual-level factors influence a soldier’s willingness to fight civil revolt, and scholars and observers often suggest that ethnicity in particular determines soldier behavior in such circumstances. Evidence from this dissertation, however, suggests that soldiers who share protesters’ ethnic identity have often used lethal force against mass movements, as was the case in Jordan (1970) and the early stages of the Syrian revolt (2011). Additionally, when coethnics do leave the armed forces, existing arguments fail to explain why some soldiers flee the conflict environment, whereas others actively join in fomenting rebellion. This study argues that soldiers’ decisions during unrest are influenced by both persuasive and coercive influences. Troops who are persuaded that domestic unrest represents a threat to national security are more likely to see it as their duty to use force to suppress it. In this research I identify two primary influences on this perception during civil unrest: whether the soldier perceives the uprising is foreign-backed, and whether he views the protesters’ tactics as illegitimate. However, in the civil unrest context a viii soldier’s perceptions of the uprising do not directly translate to his behavior, due to the effects of fear and fatigue in such crises. A second factor thus has a significant impact on a soldier’s behavior in such circumstances: coercion. A regime is able to coerce soldiers into fighting when orders are made clear, behavior is monitored, and insubordination is regularly punished. A controlled comparison of soldier behavior within uprising events in Jordan (1970), Iraq (1991), Bahrain (2011), and Syria (2011-2014) is utilized to test the argument. The study’s diverse data include more than 100 interviews conducted during in-depth fieldwork in the region and Arabic-language archival records, among other sources. The findings indicate that persuasive and coercive forces interact to produce variation in whether soldiers fight, flee, or foment revolt. The context of a domestic crisis has a substantial influence on how soldiers respond to it. But a soldier’s position in the military hierarchy moderates his ability to act on his preferences to support or fight those participating in an uprising. These findings have implications for how we assess military cohesion, regime stability, and