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Impacts of Rail Transit Investments on Demographics and Land Use: 1990-2010 Aubrey Trinidad Clemson University, [email protected]

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Impacts of Rail Transit Investments on Demographics and Land Use: 1990-2010 Aubrey Trinidad Clemson University, Aubreybualattrinidad@Gmail.Com Clemson University TigerPrints All Theses Theses 8-2017 Impacts of Rail Transit Investments on Demographics and Land Use: 1990-2010 Aubrey Trinidad Clemson University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://tigerprints.clemson.edu/all_theses Part of the Transportation Engineering Commons, and the Urban, Community and Regional Planning Commons Recommended Citation Trinidad, Aubrey, "Impacts of Rail Transit Investments on Demographics and Land Use: 1990-2010" (2017). All Theses. 2726. https://tigerprints.clemson.edu/all_theses/2726 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses at TigerPrints. It has been accepted for inclusion in All Theses by an authorized administrator of TigerPrints. For more information, please contact [email protected]. IMPACTS OF RAIL TRANSIT INVESTMENTS ON DEMOGRAPHICS AND LAND USE: 1990–2010 A Thesis Presented to the Graduate School of Clemson University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of City and Regional Planning by Aubrey Trinidad August 2017 Accepted by: Dr. Eric Morris , Committee Chair Prof. Stephen Sperry Dr. Timothy Green ABSTRACT This paper studies the changes in land use and population characteristics around station areas following the building of rail transit stations in 14 major cities in the United States from 1990 to 2010. It answers the question: how have investments in US rail transit made since the 1990s affected land use and demographics? It also looks at the specific effects of investments on population density, race, and ethnicity, means of transportation, median housing value, median household income, vehicle access share, occupations, and land use represented by the share of multifamily versus single-family housing. Using block group level US census data at three time periods and GIS boundary files from NHGIS.org, as well as the spatially-matched rail stations, this research looks at the 0.5-mile buffer around rail stations as its treatment area and the 1-mile buffer around it, excluding the treatment area, as its control zone. It uses a combination of longitudinal and cross-sectional data. For its quantitative analyses, it uses GIS analyses and panel regression analyses to determine the overall impact of rail transit investments as well as the impact on stations that are near versus those that are far from the Central Business District. An investment in rail transit leads to an increase in the share of workers commuting by public transportation and a decrease in median incomes around the station. The investment also brings about the growth in non-white population around central city stations, an increase in the share of public transit, a decrease in the proportion of telecommuters, and a drop in the car share in areas that are far from the CBD, and a decline in median household income in both areas. However, the investment has no significant effect on population density, housing value, the share of multifamily housing, vehicle access, race, ethnicity, and the employment structure near the stations. The results show that the new rail transit stations or systems have helped disadvantaged populations, but that rail investments have ambiguous impacts on development and growth around the stations. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would first like to thank my thesis committee chair, Dr. Eric Morris, for his guidance, patience, and constructive feedback on my work. He pushed me to strive for excellence, and he was always available whenever I had questions about my statistical models or my research, in general. I would also like to acknowledge the other members of my committee, Prof. Steve Sperry, and Dr. Tim Green, for their support and comments on this research. A special thank you goes to the Clemson Center for Geospatial Technologies, especially to Palak and Patricia, for the workspace and GIS-related support including the helpful suggestion on the use of the NHGIS website resources for my census and GIS data requirements. Finally, I would like to acknowledge friends and family who supported me during my time at Clemson. I would like to thank my lola Polie, papa Edwel, my sister Mayette, and my husband Sherwin for their love, strength, prayers and support from across the miles. They are my inspiration. I would also like to thank my MCRP cohort and my friends here and abroad for the encouragement. To them, I say thank you, gracias, xie xie, merci, terima kasih, and maraming salamat. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page TITLE PAGE .................................................................................................................... i ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .............................................................................................. iii LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................... vi LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................... vii CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 1 Problem Statement and Significance of the Study ................................... 4 II. LITERATURE REVIEW: THEORIES AND EMPIRICAL FINDINGS 7 Theoretical Framework ............................................................................ 7 Empirical Findings ................................................................................... 9 Conclusion ............................................................................................. 26 III. METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................... 28 Conceptual Framework .......................................................................... 29 Research Hypotheses ............................................................................. 30 Data Collection and Description ............................................................ 32 Quantitative Methods ............................................................................. 38 GIS spatial analysis ................................................................................ 38 Regression models ................................................................................. 40 IV. DISCUSSION OF RESULTS ..................................................................... 47 Treatment and Control Areas ................................................................. 47 Effects of the Rail Transit Investments .................................................. 50 Effects on Areas Near the CBD vs those Far from the CBD ................. 54 V. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................ 59 iv Table of Contents (Continued) Page APPENDICES ............................................................................................................... 63 A: US Heavy and Light Rail Systems: 1851-2012 ........................................... 64 B: Selected Studies: 1977 to 2016 .................................................................... 69 C: Rail Transit Constructions in the United States: 1990-2000 ....................... 79 D: Data Sources for the Station Locations ........................................................ 86 E: GIS Model and Procedure ............................................................................ 87 F: GIS Process: No Double Counting .............................................................. 91 G: Regression Analyses Results ....................................................................... 92 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 184 v LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1 Land Use Considerations ............................................................................. 16 2 Research Hypotheses ................................................................................... 31 3 Predictor and Outcome Variables ................................................................ 44 4 Model 1 Regression Analyses Results ......................................................... 48 5 Model 1 Regression Analyses Results for Jobs ........................................... 49 6 Model 2 Regression Analyses Results ......................................................... 52 7 Model 2 Regression Analyses Results for Jobs ........................................... 53 8 Model 3 Regression Analyses Results ......................................................... 57 9 Model 3 Regression Analyses Results for Jobs ........................................... 58 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1 Number of Rail Transit Systems: 1980 to 2015............................................. 3 2 Total Transit Subsidies: Buses and Rail Transit ............................................ 4 3 Per Person Transit Subsidies: Buses and Rail Transit .................................. 4 4 Bid-Rent Model ............................................................................................ 8 5 Hoyt’s Sector Model ..................................................................................... 9 6 Conceptual Framework ............................................................................... 29 7 Effects on Demographics and Land Use ...................................................... 30 8 The Fifteen Rail Transit Systems ................................................................
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