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VOC.AX: Vocus/M2 Completes Fixed Telco 'Big Four'

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VOC.AX: Vocus/M2 Completes Fixed Telco 'Big Four' 8 April 2016 Asia Pacific/Australia Equity Research Alternative Carriers Vocus Communications (VOC.AX / VOC AU) Rating OUTPERFORM Price (08-Apr,A$) 8.58 INCREASE TARGET PRICE Target Price (A$) (from 8.0) 9.2 Target price ESG risk (%) 0.0 Market cap (A$mn) 4,565.9 Vocus/M2 completes fixed telco 'big four' Yr avg. mthly trading (A$mn) 204.8 Projected return: ■ Enlarged Vocus can become a major telco: Vocus has been transformed Capital gain (%) 7.2 following the recent mergers with Amcom and M2. The enlarged Vocus now Dividend yield (net %) 2.4 has national network capability, a strong data/internet product set, scale Total return (%) 9.6 presence in all key customer segments (medium/large corporate, wholesale, *Stock ratings are relative to the relevant country benchmark. ¹Target price is for 12 months. SME and consumer), and an enhanced national sales and dealer network to Research Analysts sell its products. The merged group has the footprint and capabilities that it Fraser McLeish needs to win share in all its key markets and to grow into a major telco over 61 2 8205 4069 [email protected] time. Execution will now be the main factor determining success. In this Lucas Goode report we undertake a detailed review of Vocus' operations and key drivers. 61 2 8205 4431 [email protected] ■ Market share gains to accelerate: The enlarged Vocus is expanding its sales force and investing in marketing, which we expect to drive continued growth in market share as corporate/business customers re-assess their telcom requirements as they transition to an IP/cloud environment. Vocus' share in each of its key segments is still relatively low (e.g., c5% share of corporate/wholesale data market) and there is plenty of potential for growth. We still see scope for acquisitions to drive additional growth. ■ Opportunity for efficiencies: We believe that there is plenty of opportunity to drive cost efficiencies across the enlarged group. Vocus is targeting A$13- 15m in synergies from the Amcom merger and A$40m from M2. ■ Target price raised to A$9.20 (from A$8.00). Outperform: We increase our target price to A$9.20 and set it at a 10% premium to valuation to reflect Vocus has a track record of creating shareholder value, a strong forecast EPS growth (+25% FY17F proforma), and high peer multiples. On a P/E of 20x FY17F, Vocus trades below TPG on 24x, despite TPG facing a more significant EBITDA headwind from the transition to NBN. OUTPERFORM rating retained. Performance 1M 3M 12M Financial and valuation metrics Absolute (%) 6.19 23.40 44.95 Year 6/15A 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E Relative (%) 10.44 24.47 61.71 Revenue (A$ mn) 149 898 1,880 1,984 EBITDA (A$ mn) 52 229 431 476 EBIT (A$ mn) 33 181 354 394 Net Income (Adj.) (A$ mn) 18 112 223 257 EPS (Adj.) (Ac) 16.96 30.29 41.97 48.18 Change from previous EPS (%) n.a. (1.3) 4.3 (0.0) EPS growth (%) 5.1 78.6 38.5 14.8 Consensus EPS (Ac) 17.00 31.30 41.70 49.50 P/E (x) 50.6 28.3 20.4 17.8 Dividends (Ac) 8.30 18.50 21.00 24.10 Dividend yield (%) 1.0 2.2 2.4 2.8 Price/Book (x) 4.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 Net debt/EBITDA (x) 2.0 2.7 1.2 0.8 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 8 April 2016 Vocus Communications (VOC.AX / VOC AU) Price (08 Apr 2016): A$8.58; Rating: OUTPERFORM; Target Price: A$9.20 Income Statement 6/15A 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E Earnings 6/15A 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E Revenue 149 898 1,880 1,984 Equiv. FPO (period avg) 107 371 532 532 EBITDA 52 229 431 476 (mn)EPS (CS adj.) (c) 17.0 30.3 42.0 48.2 Depr. & Amort. (18) (48) (77) (82) EPS growth (%) 5.1 78.6 38.5 14.8 EBIT 33 181 354 394 DPS (c) 8.3 18.5 21.0 24.1 Associates - - - - Dividend Payout (%) 48.9 61.1 50.0 50.0 Net interest exp. (5) (21) (35) (28) Free CFPS (c) 7.0 11.7 45.9 51.9 Other 0 0 0 0 Valuation 6/15A 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E Profit before tax 28 161 319 367 P/E (CS) (x) 50.6 28.3 20.4 17.8 Income tax (10) (48) (96) (110) PEG (x) 9.8 0.4 0.5 1.2 Profit after tax 18 112 223 257 EV/EBIT (x) 139.5 28.6 14.3 12.5 Minorities -0 -0 -0 -0 EV/EBITDA (x) 90.6 22.6 11.8 10.4 Preferred dividends - - - - Dividend Yield (%) 1.0 2.2 2.4 2.8 Associates & Other (0) 0 0 (0) FCF Yield (%) 0.8 1.4 5.4 6.0 Normalised NPAT 18 112 223 257 Price to book (x) 4.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 Unusal item after tax 0 (31) (83) (83) Net profit (Reported) 18 81 140 174 Returns 6/15A 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E Return on Equity (%) 9.2 3.6 7.1 7.9 Balance Sheet 6/15A 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E Profit Margin (%) 12.2 12.5 11.9 12.9 Cash & equivalents 15 103 109 87 Asset Turnover (x) 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 Inventories 0 0 0 0 Equity Multiplier (x) 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.2 Receivables 23 137 247 261 Return on Assets (%) 4.7 2.8 5.5 6.4 Other current assets 4 4 4 4 Return on Invested Cap. 7.2 3.4 6.7 7.6 Current assets 42 244 360 352 Gearing(%) 6/15A 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E Property, plant & equip. 205 455 485 511 Intangibles 125 3,259 3,185 3,107 ND/ND+E (%) 34.8 16.6 13.9 10.5 Other non-current assets 11 11 11 11 Net Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.0 2.7 1.2 0.8 Non-current assets 341 3,725 3,681 3,629 Int Cover (EBITDA) (x) 9.8 11.1 12.4 17.1 Total assets 383 3,969 4,041 3,981 Int Cover (EBIT) (x) 6.3 8.8 10.2 14.2 Payables 24 101 211 223 Capex to Sales (%) 23.3 12.2 6.2 5.7 Capex to Depr (%) 281.2 313.8 179.7 165.8 Interest bearing debt 120 720 620 470 Other liabilities 43 43 43 43 Total liabilities 187 864 874 736 MSCI IVA Rating BBB Net assets 196 3,105 3,167 3,245 TP ESG Risk (%): 0.00 Ordinary equity 196 3,105 3,167 3,245 10 G MSCI IVA Risk: Neutral Minority interests 0 0 0 0 L MSCI IVA Risk Comment: We believe the MSCI Preferred capital - - - - rating is appropriate given VOC's programs to S Total shareholder funds 196 3,105 3,167 3,245 8 ensure privacy and data security of its S Net Debt 105 617 511 383 C C customers and anti-corruption policy to prevent 6 L unethical business practices. Cash Flow 6/15A 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E C G GL EBIT 33 181 354 394 4 Net Interest 0 (21) (35) (28) S Depr & Amort 18 48 77 82 2 Tax Paid (5) (39) (71) (85) Change in Working capital 0 (37) (0) (2) 0 Other cash and non-cash items (5) 21 35 28 Operating cash flow 42 153 360 389 Environment Social Governance Capex (35) (110) (116) (113) Global Local Country Stock Capex - expansionary - - - - Capex - Maintenance - - - - Share price performance Acquisitions & Invest (51) (3,353) 0 0 Asset sale proceeds 0 0 0 0 Other - - - - Investing cashflow (86) (3,463) (116) (113) Dividends paid (2) (17) (104) (120) Equity raised 1 2,835 0 0 Net borrowings 16 600 (100) (150) Other financing cash in/(outflows) (0) (21) (35) (28) Financing cashflow 14 3,398 (239) (298) Total cashflow (29) 88 6 (22) Adjustments 0 0 0 0 Movement in cash/equivalents (29) 88 6 (22) On 08-Apr-2016 the S&P ASX 200 Index closed at 4937.6 On 08-Apr-2016 the spot exchange rate was A$1.33/US$1 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Vocus Communications (VOC.AX / VOC AU) 2 8 April 2016 Executive summary The recent mergers with Amcom and M2 have transformed the Vocus business. The enlarged Vocus now has national network capability, a strong data/internet product set, scale presence in all key customer segments (medium/large corporate, wholesale, SME and residential), and a substantial national sales and dealer network to sell its products. The merged group has the footprint and capabilities that it needs to win share in all its key markets and grow into a much larger telco over time.
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