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Handysize & Handymax Markets 2007 Conference

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Handysize & Handymax Markets 2007 Conference 29 May 2007 HANDYSIZE & HANDYMAX MARKETS 2007 CONFERENCE An Owner’s Perspectives AGENDA • Background of Thoresen Thai Agencies Public Company Limited • An Owner’s Perspectives Slide 2 TTA acts as the holding company for all Thoresen Group companies around the world THORESENTHORESEN THAITHAI AGENCIESAGENCIES PUBLICPUBLIC COMPANYCOMPANY LIMITEDLIMITED DryDry BulkBulk ServicesServices OffshoreOffshore ServicesServices ShippingShipping ServicesServices ¾¾OwnershipOwnership ofof 4545 vesselsvessels throughthrough ¾¾MermaidMermaid MaritimeMaritime Ltd.,Ltd., aa 78.09%-owned78.09%-owned ¾¾ChidlomChidlom MarineMarine ServicesServices andand SuppliesSupplies Ltd.,Ltd., aa 99.99%-99.99%- individualindividual 99.99%-owned99.99%-owned subsidiariessubsidiaries subsidiarysubsidiary ownedowned subsidiarysubsidiary ¾¾OwnershipOwnership ofof 88 supplysupply andand divingdiving vesselsvessels ¾¾ChidlomChidlom TransportTransport && ServicesServices Co.,Co., Ltd.,Ltd., aa 99.99%-99.99%- throughthrough MermaidMermaid OffshoreOffshore ServicesServices Ltd.,Ltd., ownedowned subsidiarysubsidiary aa 99.99%-owned99.99%-owned subsidiarysubsidiary ofof MermaidMermaid ¾¾FearnleysFearnleys (Thailand)(Thailand) Ltd.,Ltd., aa 51.00%-owned51.00%-owned subsidiarysubsidiary MaritimeMaritime ¾¾GACGAC ThoresenThoresen LogisticsLogistics Ltd.,Ltd., aa 51%-owned51%-owned subsidiarysubsidiary ¾¾OwnershipOwnership ofof 22 tendertender drillingdrilling rigsrigs throughthrough ¾¾GulfGulf AgencyAgency CompanyCompany (Thailand)(Thailand) Ltd.,Ltd., aa 51%-owned51%-owned MermaidMermaid DrillingDrilling Ltd.,Ltd., aa 95%-owned95%-owned associateassociate subsidiarysubsidiary ofof MermaidMermaid MaritimeMaritime ¾¾ISSISS ThoresenThoresen AgenciesAgencies Ltd.,Ltd., aa 99.99%-owned99.99%-owned subsidiarysubsidiary ¾¾T.S.C.T.S.C. MaritimeMaritime Ltd.,Ltd., aa 99.99%-owned99.99%-owned subsidiarysubsidiary ¾¾ThaiThai P&IP&I ServicesServices InternationalInternational Ltd.,Ltd., aa 90.00%-90.00%- ownedowned subsidiarysubsidiary ¾¾ThoresenThoresen (Indochina)(Indochina) S.A.,S.A., aa 50%-owned50%-owned associateassociate ¾¾ThoresenThoresen ShippingShipping FZE,FZE, aa 100%-owned100%-owned subsidiarysubsidiary Net Profit >>>> 82.42% >>>> 14.49% >>>> 3.09% Contribution (Q2/2007) Slide 3 Thoresen is one of the market leaders in break bulk liner services from China/SE Asia to the Middle East/Europe Number of Voyages Cargo Volume (Tons) Route % Increase Principal Cargoes 2005 2006 2005 2006 China-Middle East 19 33 572,973 1,131,847 97.54% Wood & Steel Products Southeast Asia-Middle East 115 99 1,818,683 1,510,741 -16.93% Wood & Steel Products Others 6 202,335 100% Wood Products Total 134 138 2,391,656 2,844,923 18.95% Slide 4 We strive to achieve a highly diversified mix of clients and cargoes in our dry bulk shipping services …. FY 2006 Trading Patterns FY 2006 Cargoes (By Tons) (By Vessel Days) 12% 21% Fertilizers 41% 33% Period T/C 10% Agricultural Products COA 4% Steel Products Persian Gulf Liner 12% Paper / Wooden 11% Red Sea Liner Products East Med.+ Europe Minerals / Liner Concentrates 16% Tramp 16% General Cargoes / 7% 17% Others FY 2006 Liner Cargoes (By Tons) FY 2006 Tramp Cargoes (By Tons) 2% 6% 16% 17% 7% China 40% Thailand 12% Egypt India Indonesia Jordan 20% Malaysia Kuwait Qatar 6% 29% China Saudi Arabia Ukraine 15% 22% Others 5% Others 3% Slide 5 …. using our relatively specialized fleet of tween- deckers and open-hatch box-shaped vessels Fleet Age Distribution Vessel Types Number of Vessel s 12 40% 10 Open Hatch / Box 8 Shaped Bulkers 44% 6 Standard Bulkers 4 2 Tween Deckers 0 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 16% Year Number Design Class Average DWT DWT Weighted Average Age 7 TD-15A 16,236 20.76 4 Multi-Purpose 17,311 23.97 7 Passat 20,418 18.54 18 Tween-Deckers 18,101 20.47 6 Wismar 23,616 20.87 4 Con-Bulk 25,319 23.70 17 Bulk 40,800 14.57 27 Bulk Carriers 34,688 16.51 Slide 6 45 Total Fleet 28,053 17.53 AGENDA • Background of Thoresen Thai Agencies Public Company Limited • An Owner’s Perspectives Slide 7 Perspective #1: Strong freight rates should continue but expect some correction from today’s market levels TC Rate $120,000 Average TC Rate 2004 2005 2006 2007 $110,000 Capesize 65,308 46,694 44,314 78,115 $100,000 Panamax 32,451 21,744 25,064 37,889 $90,000 Handymax/Supramax 25,473 18,639 23,834 33,245 $80,000 Handysize 19,634 23,149 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Jan- Mar - May - Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar - May - Jul- Sep- Nov - Jan- Mar - May - Jul- Sep- Nov - Jan- Mar - May - 04 04 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 Handymax - Japan-SK / Nopac rv Panamax - Japan-SK / Nopac rv Capesize - Nopac round v Supramax - Japan-SK / Nopac rv Handysize - SE Asia & S Korea - Japan Source: Baltic Exchange Limited Slide 8 Perspective #1: Strong freight rates should continue but expect some correction from today’s market levels (cont.) • Demand for iron ore and coal (each Forward Freight Agreement Rates accounting for more than 25% of total As of 24 May 2007 shipping demand) is driven by Asian imports from regions rich in natural Bid Offer resources, such as Australia and Latin (US$/day) (US$/day) America BSI 43,779 • China now exports increasing volumes Q3/2007 34,750 35,000 of steel and cement and became the largest steel products exporter in Q3 + Q4/2007 34,750 35,000 2006; these strong exports have reduced capacity by increasing tonne- Q4/2007 34,500 35,000 miles and journey times Q1/2008 29,750 31,000 • China’s announced policy measures are probably not enough to show the CAL 2008 28,500 30,000 economy significantly; in reality, China experiences a shortage in CAL 2009 21,500 22,500 infrastructure capacity Source : Clarkson Securities Ltd. Slide 9 Perspective #1: Strong freight rates should continue but expect some correction from today’s market levels (cont.) Size Total Order Book 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (DWT DWT % DWT DWT DWT DWT DWT No. No. No. No. No. No. 000’s) (MM) of Fleet (MM) (MM) (MM) (MM) (MM) 10-40 226 6.833 6.74% 56 1.535 68 2.123 68 2.169 30 0.873 4 0.133 40-60 399 21.750 21.45% 80 4.204 121 6.595 94 5.158 77 4.277 18 1.014 60-100 248 20.049 19.77% 69 5.444 57 4.473 61 4.890 42 3.603 19 1.639 100-150 13 1.414 1.39% 3 0.300 1 0.111 4 0.433 4 0.454 1 0.116 150+ 257 51.370 50.65% 31 5.949 38 7.632 63 12.911 97 18.900 24 5.085 Total 1,143 101.415 100.00% 239 17.433 285 20.933 290 25.561 250 28.105 66 7.987 Source : Fearnleys – Bulk Fleet Update (Apr - 2007) • Dry bulk shipping benefits from modest supply growth, with the total order book at 27% of the current fleet and scrapping likely to increase over the next few years • Handymax vessels are unique, since they can compete with Panamaxes to transport coal and iron ore; Handymax vessels can operate in smaller ports with draft restrictions and limited loading/unloading equipment • Handysize vessels are most attractive in terms of supply growth, because they have the lowest order book Slide 10 Perspective #2: Vessel prices might not substantially correct for the next few years Comparision of BDI and 5 Years Old Handymax Prices BDI US$ million 6,600 $63 Baltic Exchange Dry Index 5,800 $57 Handymax Prices $51 5,000 $45 4,200 $39 3,400 $33 $27 2,600 $21 1, 8 0 0 $15 1, 0 0 0 $9 Source: Baltic Exchange Limited • Limited space at shipyards in the next few years due to existing orders from oil tankers, container vessels, and LNG vessels • More dry bulk owners are placing orders with smaller-sized shipyards (with limited building experience) or adopting a “wait and see” policy • Given the recent market strength, the financial position of most owners is healthy, so there is less pressure to sell vessels if freight rates correct Slide 11 Perspective #2: Vessel prices might not substantially correct for the next few years (cont.) • The modern Handysize fleet is Handysize Fleet Age Distribution controlled by a handful of owners, and 9.5% fleet renewal may be limited by the 10.8% behavior of shipyards 37.2% 0-4 Years 5-9 Years 11.3% 10-14 Years • Only a few established yards are 15-19 Years willing to build Handysize vessels, so 4.3% 20-24 Years 25+ Years owners must negotiate with relatively 26.9% new yards in China, Vietnam, India, Source: Fearnleys (Thailand) Ltd. etc. Modern Handysize Fleet Ownership Name No. of Average • Many newer yards commit to build Vessels Age some Handysize vessels and quickly Mitsui OSK Lines 42 8.2 proceed to build Handymax or Pacific Basin Shipping 22 6.5 Panamax vessels Egon Oldendorff 26 8.1 Clipper Group 22 5.3 Hartmann Schiff 22 5.5 Source: Fearnleys (Thailand) Ltd. Slide 12 Perspective #2: Vessel prices might not substantially correct for the next few years (cont.) Investment Analysis Recent S&P Deals Price Vessel Price US$ 50 million Age DWT Deal Date (Millions) Average Owner Expenses US$ 4,203/day Newbuild 52,500 US$ 51.0 March Average Admin. Expenses US$ 736/day Resale (2007 2007 delivery) Average Interest Expenses US$ 5,515/day 3 years old 55,566 US$ 50.5 March Average Depreciation US$ 6,237/day 2007 Average Breakeven US$ 16,691/day 4 years old 53,350 US$ 46.5 February 2007 Conclusion 5 years old 53,054 US$ 40.5 December 2006 TC rates will have to average US$ 32,400 Newbuild 58,000 US$ 40.5 per day for 3 years to cover principal (2010 delivery) repayments and the US$ 12 million Newbuild 60,000 JPY 4,000.0 premium for a second-hand Supramax (2012 delivery) vessel Slide 13 Perspective #3: Fleet renewal is necessary to remain competitive • Operational inefficiencies related to 2004 2005 2006 older vessels include higher Capesize repair/maintenance costs, less fuel No.
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