Ukraine – Russia: Relationships 2014 – present

Simulation of Negotiations: -Russia-European Union Relations Dr. Vitalijs Butenko Dr. Sibylle Zürcher

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 1 1. Introduction

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 2 Ukraine

Situation as of 2013: - Form of government: Semi-presidential republic - Administrative units: - 24 regions (“oblast”) - 2 cities of republican subordination (Kiev and ) - Autonomous Republic of - Population*: - 48.4 m (2001 census) - 42.5 m (2016 estimate) - GDP (current prices)*: - $179.5 b (2013) - $87.2 b (2016 estimate) - Security: - 250’000 army personnel0 - Following Budapest agreement in 1994 the nuclear arsenal is removed to Russia in exchange for assurances against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine and admission to Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 3 * Note from IMF: 2013 data excludes Crimea and Sevastopol for comparison purposes with 2014 data. 2. Background on the crisis in Ukraine 5. Sept. 2014: , Convoy cease fire

Nov 2013 – Sept 2014 Odessa Dec 2014-Feb Conflict

intensity 2015: “Pocket” War Mar. 2014: MH17 Civil war erupts in and regions 12. Sept. 2014: Ratification of the Mar. 2014: UKR-EU association US and EU agreement Crisis sanctions 21 Feb. 2014: Mar. 2014: Crisis settlement deal Incorporation of Crimea by Russia 22-23 Feb. 2014: Yanukovitch leaves Ukraine; Maidan leaders take over Open the government conflict

26. Sept. 2014 Another gas- Nov. 2013: UKR: repays $3.1 bn price crisis debt in steps UKR-RUS, EU begins RUS: Resumes as mediator supply at price $385 per 1,000 m2 Unstable peace

StableNov. 2013: Yanukovitch peacerefuses to sign UKR-EU association agreement time with EU. NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 4 Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) provides an interactive timeline of events of the crisis in Ukraine: http://csis.org/ukraine/index.htm

«Wendet euch von Russland ab», Interview mit David Usupaschwili, Tages Anzeiger, 17.10.14.

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 5 3. Sanctions

. US and EU decided to implement . Russia responded by embargo on sanctions against  apples, milk, meat, fish and other  individuals related to the crisis in products from EU, US and Norway Ukraine  banks, energy and defense companies

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 6 Example of EU sanctions. Subject to semiannual review.

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 7 NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 8 4. Negotiations on Ukrainian crisis

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 9 4.1. Development of the crisis and related negotiations Timeline Date: Event: November 2013 Yanukovich rejects agreement with EU November 21, 2013 Euromaidan starts February 21, 2014 Agreement with opposition and departure of Yanukovich (→ document 1)

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 10 4.1.1. Kiev Agreement: Agreement on Settlement of the Crisis in Ukraine (21 February 2014, Kiev)

Signatories: Witnessed by: • Viktor Yanukovych, For the EU: For the Opposition: • Radoslaw Sikorski, Polish foreign minister • Vitaliy Klichko, UDAR • Frank-Walter Steinmeier, German foreign minister • Oleh Tyahnibok, Svoboda • Laurent Fabius, French foreign minister • Arsenij Yatseniuk, Batkivshchyna For the Russian Federation: • Vladimir Lukin, Russian special envoy

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 11 → document 1 Kiev agreement

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 12 Agreement on the Settlement of Crisis in Ukraine Signatories Concerned with the tragic loss of life in Ukraine, seeking an immediate end of Viktor Yanukovych, president of Ukraine bloodshed and determined to pave the way for a political resolution of the crisis, For the Opposition We, the signing parties, have agreed upon the following: Vitaliy Klichko, UDAR 1. Within 48 hours of the signing of this agreement, a special law will be Oleh Tyahnibok, Svoboda adopted, signed and promulgated, which will restore the Constitution of 2004 Arsenij Yatseniuk, Batkivshchyna including amendments passed until now. Signatories declare their intention to Witnessed by create a coalition and form a national unity government within 10 days For the EU thereafter. Radoslaw Sikorski, Polish foreign minister 2. Constitutional reform, balancing the powers of the President, the government Frank-Walter Steinmeier, German foreign minister and parliament, will start immediately and be completed in September 2014. Laurent Fabius, French foreign minister 3. Presidential elections will be held as soon as the new Constitution is adopted For the Russian Federation but no later than December 2014. New electoral laws will be passed and a new Vladimir Lukin, Russian special envoy Central Election Commission will be formed on the basis of proportionality and in accordance with the OSCE & Venice commission rules. 4. Investigation into recent acts of violence will be conducted under joint monitoring from the authorities, the opposition and the Council of Europe. 5. The authorities will not impose a state of emergency. The authorities and the opposition will refrain from the use of violence. The Parliament will adopt the 3rd amnesty, covering the same range of illegal actions as the 17th February 2014 law. Both parties will undertake serious efforts for the normalisation of life in the cities and villages by withdrawing from administrative and public buildings and unblocking streets, city parks and squares. Illegal weapons should be handed over to the Ministry of Interior bodies within 24 hours of the special law, referred to in point 1 hereof, coming into force. After the aforementioned period, all cases of illegal carrying and storage of weapons will fall under the law of Ukraine. The forces of authorities and of the opposition will step back from confrontational posture. The Government will use law enforcement forces exclusively for the physical protection of public buildings. 6. The Foreign Ministers of France, Germany, and the Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation call for an immediate end to all violence and confrontation. Kyiv, 21 February 2014 NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 13 Timeline Date: Event: November 2013 Yanukovich rejects agreement with EU November 21, 2013 Euromaidan starts February 21, 2014 Agreement with opposition and departure of Yanukovich (→ document 1) March 1, 2014 Uprising in Luhansk and Donetsk regions March 17, 2014 First sanctions against Russia March 21, 2014 Annexation of Crimea April 17, 2014 Geneva statement on Ukraine (→ document 2)

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 14 4.1.2. Geneva Statement on Ukraine (17 April 2014, Geneva)

Foreign ministers of Ukraine, Russia, EU and US

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 15 → document 2 Geneva statement

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 16 Geneva Statement on Ukraine

Representatives of the European Union, the United States, Ukraine and the Russia Federation issued today following statement:

The Geneva meeting on the situation in Ukraine agreed on initial concrete steps to de- escalate tensions and restore security for all citizens. All sides must refrain from any violence, intimidation or provocative actions. The participants strongly condemned and rejected all expressions of extremism, racism and religious intolerance, including anti-semitism. All illegal armed groups must be disarmed; all illegally seized buildings must be returned to legitimate owners; all illegally occupied streets, squares and other public places in Ukrainian cities and towns must be vacated. Amnesty will be granted to protestors and to those who have left buildings and other public places and surrendered weapons, with the exception of those found guilty of capital crimes. It was agreed that the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission should play a leading role in assisting Ukrainian authorities and local communities in the immediate implementation of these de-escalation measures wherever they are needed most, beginning in the coming days. The U.S., E.U. and Russia commit to support this mission, including by providing monitors. The announced constitutional process will be inclusive, transparent and accountable. It will include the immediate establishment of a broad national dialogue, with outreach to all of Ukraine’s regions and political constituencies, and allow for the consideration of public comments and proposed amendments. The participants underlined the importance of economic and financial stability in Ukraine and would be ready to discuss additional support as the above steps are implemented.

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 17 Timeline

Date: Event: November 2013 Yanukovich rejects agreement with EU November 21, 2013 Euromaidan starts February 21, 2014 Agreement with opposition and departure of Yanukovich (→ document 1) March 1, 2014 Uprising in Luhansk and Donetsk regions March 17, 2014 First sanctions against Russia March 21, 2014 Annexation of Crimea April 17, 2014 Geneva statement on Ukraine (→ document 2) May, 2014 Begin of counter terrorist operation in eastern Ukraine June 6, 2014 Normandy Four first meeting

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 18 Celebration of D-Day 70th commemoration day (6 June 2014)

First Normandy Four meeting (F, D, UKR, RUS)

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 19 Timeline

Date: Event: November 2013 Yanukovich rejects agreement with EU November 21, 2013 Euromaidan starts February 21, 2014 Agreement with opposition and departure of Yanukovich (→ document 1) March 1, 2014 Uprising in Luhansk and Donetsk regions March 17, 2014 First sanctions against Russia March 21, 2014 Annexation of Crimea April 17, 2014 Geneva statement on Ukraine (→ document 2) May, 2014 Begin of counter terrorist operation in eastern Ukraine June 6, 2014 Normandy four first meeting (this was in France, D-day celebration) July, 2014 and Slovyansk under control of Ukraine forces July 17, 2014 Malaysian air flight 17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur shot down September 5, 2014 Contact group on Ukraine crisis (→ document 3, “Minsk I”)

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 20 2.3 Minsk I Protocol: Trilateral Contact Group negotiation (5 September 2014, Minsk)

Participants of the Trilateral Contact Group: • Swiss diplomat and OSCE representative • Former president of Ukraine and Ukrainian representative Leonid Kuchma • Russian Ambassador to Ukraine and Russian representative Mikhail Zurabov • DPR leader • LPR leader

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 21 → document 3 Protocol, 5 September 2014 (“Minsk I”)

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 22 PROTOCOL on the results of consultations of the Trilateral Contact Group Participants of the Trilateral Contact Group: with respect to the joint steps aimed at Ambassador Heidi Talyavini (signed) the implementation of the Peace Plan Second President of Ukraine, L.D. Kuchma (signed) of the President of Ukraine, P. Poroshenko, Ambassador of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, and the initiatives of the President of Russia, V. Putin M.Y. Zurabov (signed) Upon consideration and discussion of the proposals put forward by the participants of A.V. Zakharchenko (signed) the consultations in Minsk on September 1, 2014, the Trilateral Contact Group, I.V. Plotnitskiy (signed) consisting of the representatives of Ukraine, the Russian Federation and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe [OSCE], reached an understanding with respect to the need to implement the following steps: 1. Ensure the immediate bilateral cessation of the use of weapons. 2. Ensure monitoring and verification by the OSCE of the regime of non-use of weapons. 3. Implement decentralization of power, including by means of enacting the Law of Ukraine “With respect to the temporary status of local self-government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions” (Law on Special Status). 4. Ensure permanent monitoring on the Ukrainian-Russian state border and verification by the OSCE, together with the creation of a security area in the border regions of Ukraine and the Russian Federation. 5. Immediately release all hostages and unlawfully detained persons. 6. Enact a law prohibiting the prosecution and punishment of persons in connection with the events that took place in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions of Ukraine. 7. Conduct an inclusive national dialogue. 8. Adopt measures aimed at improving the humanitarian situation in Donbass. 9. Ensure the holding of early local elections in accordance with the Law of Ukraine “With respect to the temporary status of local self-government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions” (Law on Special Status). 10. Remove unlawful military formations, military hardware, as well as militants and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine. 11. Adopt a program for the economic revival of Donbass and the recovery of economic activity in the region.

12. Provide personal security guarantees for the participants of the consultations. NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 23 Timeline Date: Event: November 2013 Yanukovich rejects agreement with EU November 21, 2013 Euromaidan starts February 21, 2014 Agreement with opposition and departure of Yanukovich (→ document 1) March 1, 2014 Uprising in Luhansk and Donetsk regions March 17, 2014 First sanctions against Russia March 21, 2014 Annexation of Crimea April 17, 2014 Geneva statement on Ukraine (→ document 2) May, 2014 Begin of counter terrorist operation in eastern Ukraine June 6, 2014 Normandy four first meeting (this was in France, D-day celebration) July, 2014 Kramatorsk and Slovyansk under control of Ukraine forces July 17, 2014 Malaysian air flight 17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur shot down September 5, 2014 Contact group on Ukraine crisis (→ document 3, “Minsk I”) January, 2015 Escalation of fights February 5, 2015 Merkel and Hollande go to Kiev February 5, 2015 Merkel and Hollande go to Moscow February 6, 2015 US threat to supply lethal weapons February 11, 2015 Normandy four meeting in Minsk (→ document 4, “Minsk II”)

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 24 4.1.4 Minsk II Protocol: Normandy Four meeting in Minsk (12 February 2015, Minsk)

Alexander Lukashenko, , Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande,

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 25 Our assessment of the positions of the involved parties

Kiev Luhansk and Donetsk Moscow . Agreement based on . Demarcation line from . Keep territorial gains demarcation line from Minsk I Minsk I is no longer euphemistically expressed in . Ceasefire and withdrawal of appropriate the demand of federalization heavy weapons . End the Ukrainian and autonomy for Luhansk . Control of border with Russia economic blockade of and Donetsk . Withdrawal of foreign troops Luhansk and Donetsk . Negotiate and design the from Luhansk and Donetsk agreement in order to bring Debaltseve under rebels’ . Free to chooses its foreign control policy . Will not return Crimea . Ukraine remains neutral and West Minsk does not join NATO . Diplomatic agreement for . Hosting the event: . Kiev re-starts social economic peace ‘Serving coffee’ links with DPR and LPR (i.e. Kiev invests in the destroyed . Sanctions if no peace deal . An opportunity to be regions) (supply of weapons by US) better recognized by EU . Russia must remove their leaders troops from east Ukraine . Restoration of the

international law and order NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 26 Different views on the crisis

Risto Penttila, FT 10.10.14: Lilia Shevtsova, FT 30.09.14: . Increase popular support of Putin . Support “permanent confrontation” . Divide further ideologically, politically perception by RUS and culturally west and Russia . Short term: Internal power . Hurt Putin’s advisors vs. workers consolidation and warmers in west . Long term: Declining living standards . Possible solution: . Reality assessment:  Peace treaty UKR-RUS on  West swallowed annexation of borders Crimea  UKR commits to uphold Russian  The partition of UKR is silently speakers rights being ratified by the rest of the  RUS stops supporting rebels in world east Ukraine  West neither protects UKR, nor guarantees international law  Economy slowdown under sanctions will boomerang back to Putin’s reign NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 27 Development of the negotiation on 11 February 2015

Date Time Event Feb 11 17:18 Negotiations begin with ‘Normandy Four’ (Putin, Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko) The Contact Group will have a separate closed door meeting Feb 11 18:38 They Normandy Four are joined by their foreign ministers Feb 11 21:44 Dinner Break Feb 12 2:32 Putin and Merkel take a short break Feb 12 6:41 Leaders of Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics arrive to join contact group Feb 12 7:02 Delegations of the Normandy Four leave room to take a break (originally thought to be the end of talks) Feb 12 7:26 Poroshenko calls Russian proposal unacceptable Feb 12 7:55 Merkel and Hollande speak to Putin without Poroshenko Feb 12 9:00 Negotiations end – agreement reached

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 28

Time stamps are approximate, according to news tickers from different sources (e.g. NZZ, RT). → document 4 Protocol 12. February 2015 (“Minsk II”)

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 29 List of measures to fulfill the Minsk II Agreement, February 12, 2015 1. An immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine and its strict implementation starting at 0000 (Kyiv time) February 15, 2015. 2. The withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both parties at equal distances in order to create at least a 50 kilometer security zone for 100mm or larger caliber artillery systems, a 70 kilometer security zone for Grad multiple rocket launcher systems and a 140 kilometer security zone for the Tornado-S, Uragan, and Smerch multiple rocket launcher systems and Tochka (Tochka-U) tactical missile systems: - for the Ukrainian troops: [withdrawal] from the actual contact line; - for the military units of individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine: [withdrawal] from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk memorandum of September 19, 2014 Withdrawal of aforementioned heavy weapons shall begin no later than the second day of the ceasefire and end within 14 days. The OSCE will contribute to this process with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group. 3. Starting the first day of such withdrawal, ensuring the effective monitoring and verification by the OSCE of the ceasefire and the withdrawal of heavy weapons with the use of all necessary technical means, including satellites, UAVs, radar systems, etc. 4. On the first day after the withdrawal, to begin a dialogue on the procedures for holding local elections in accordance with Ukrainian law and the Law of Ukraine "On a temporary order of local government in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions," as well as on the future regime of these areas, according to this Act. Immediately, no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, to adopt a resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine with the specification of a territory subject to the special regime in accordance with the Law of Ukraine "On temporary order of local government in some regions of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions" based on the line set in a Minsk memorandum of September 19, 2014 5. To provide pardons and amnesties by the enactment of a law prohibiting prosecution and punishment of persons with regard to the events that took place in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine. 6. To ensure the release and exchange of hostages and illegally detained persons based on the principle of "all for all". This process must be completed no later than the fifth day after the withdrawal. 7. To provide secure access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy on the basis of an international mechanism. 8. Determination of the procedure for the full restoration of the socio-economic relations, including transactions of social payments, such as pensions and other payments (takings and income, timely payment of all utility bills, renewal of taxation within Ukraine’s legal framework). To this end, Ukraine shall regain control over the segment of its banking system in conflict-affected areas, and an international mechanism to facilitate such transfers will probably be created. 9. Restoration of full control over the state border of Ukraine by Ukraine’s government throughout the whole conflict area, which should begin on the first day after the local elections and be completed after a comprehensive political settlement (local elections in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions on the basis of the Law of Ukraine, and a constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on condition of implementation of paragraph 11 - with consultations and in agreement with the representatives of individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 30 … 10. The withdrawal of all foreign armed forces, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under the supervision of the OSCE. Disarmament of all illegal groups. 11. Conducting constitutional reform in Ukraine, with the new constitution coming into force by the end of 2015, providing for decentralization as a key element (taking into account the characteristics of individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, agreed with representatives of these areas), as well as the adoption of the permanent legislation on the special status of individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in accordance with the measures specified in Note [1], until the end of 2015. (See Notes) 12. On the basis of the Law of Ukraine “On temporary order of local government in individual areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions” the questions regarding local elections shall be discussed and agreed with the individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in compliance with the relevant standards of the OSCE with the monitoring by the OSCE ODIHR. 13. To intensify the activities of the Trilateral Contact Group, including through the establishment of working groups to implement the relevant aspects of the Minsk Agreement. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral Contact Group. Notes: Such measures, in accordance with the Law "On the special order of local government in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions," include the following: - Exemption from punishment, harassment and discrimination of persons associated with the events that took place in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions; - The right to self-determination with regard to language; - Participation of local governments in the appointment of heads of prosecutors’ offices and courts in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions; - The possibility for the central executive authorities to conclude agreements with the relevant local authorities on economic, social and cultural development of individual areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions; - The state shall support socio-economic development of individual areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions; - Assistance from the central government to cross-border cooperation between the individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and regions of the Russian Federation; - The creation of people's militia units [police] upon the decision of local councils in order to maintain public order in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions; - The powers of local council deputies and other officials elected in snap elections, appointed by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine according to this law, cannot be terminated. The document is signed by the members of a Trilateral Contact Group: [OSCE] Ambassador Heidi Tagliavini, Second President of Ukraine L.D. Kuchma The Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Ukraine M.Yu. Zurabov

A. V. Zakharchenko, I. V. Plotnitsky NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 31 http://www.unian.info/politics/1043394-minsk-agreement-full-text-in-english.html Timeline Date: Event: November 2013 Yanukovich rejects agreement with EU November 21, 2013 Euromaidan starts February 21, 2014 Agreement with opposition and departure of Yanukovich (→ document 1) March 1, 2014 Uprising in Luhansk and Donetsk regions March 17, 2014 First sanctions against Russia March 21, 2014 Annexation of Crimea April 17, 2014 Geneva statement on Ukraine (→ document 2) May, 2014 Begin of counter terrorist operation in eastern Ukraine June 6, 2014 Normandy four first meeting (this was in France, D-day celebration) July, 2014 Kramatorsk and Slovyansk under control of Ukraine forces July 17, 2014 Malaysian air flight 17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur shot down September 5, 2014 Contact group on Ukraine crisis (→ document 3, “Minsk I”) January, 2015 Escalation of fights February 5, 2015 Merkel and Hollande go to Kiev February 5, 2015 Merkel and Hollande go to Moscow February 6, 2015 US threat to supply lethal weapons February 11, 2015 Normandy four meeting in Minsk (→ document 4, “Minsk II”) February 12, 2015 IMF agreed on a 17.5 billion $ bailout for Ukraine February 18, 2015 Debaltseve is taken by the pro-Russian rebels NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 32 Debaltseve Battle

‘Kettle’ formation Approximate situation at the end of the battle

Source: Wikipedia NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 33 4.2. Conclusions 4.2.1. Summary of the four agreements Issue Document 1 “Kiev” Document 2 Document 3 Document 4: “Geneva” “Minsk I” “Minsk II”

• Declaration of intention • Political Statement • Measures to implement • Measures to implement Agreement Type Agreement

• President and • EU, RUS, UKR, US • RUS, UKR, Rebels, OSCE • RUS, UKR, Rebels, OSCE Parties Opposition (Ministers) Contact Group Contact Group

• Constitution of 2014 • Call for transparent • Decentralization of power • Constitutional reform until end of 2015 Constitution and reforms in • Reform to balance constitutional • Inclusive national dialogue • Decentralization powers reform process • Enact a law on special • Special conditions for DPR and LPR UKR • Within 48h gov of • Broad national status of Donetsk and national unity dialogue Luhansk regions

• Presidential elections - • Early local elections on the • Local elections in D. & L. by the end of 2015 Elections until December 2014 basis of the law on special on the basis of the Law of Ukraine status of D. & L.

- • Importance of fin. • Economic revival of • Full restoration of social-economic relations Finance and economics and econ. stability Donbass region with Donbass

- • OSCE Special • Monitoring and verification • Effective monitoring and verification by OSCE Observers Monitoring Mission by OSCE • Use of technical means, satellites, radars etc.

- - • OSCE permanent • Restoration of full control over the state border Ukraine-Russia border monitoring and safety by Ukraine on the first day after local elections regions

• Amnesty • Amnesty granted • Enact a law prohibiting • Provide pardons and amnesties by the to protestors prosecution and enactment of a law prohibiting prosecution Amnesty punishment of persons and punishment of persons related to the related to the events events

- - • Immediate release of all • Release and exchange ‘all-to-all’ Hostages hostages

• Illegal weapons should • Disarmament of • Immediate cessation of fire • Immediate and comprehensive ceasefire Use of weapons be handed over to the illegal groups • Withdrawal of all heavy weapons to create at Ministry of Interior least 50 km security zone

Unlawful military formations • Remove unlawful military • Withdrawal of all foreign armed forces, - - formations, hardware and equipment and mercenaries from Ukr. and mercenaries mercenaries from UKR NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 34 Crimea - - - - 4.2.2. Conclusions of the four agreements . Documents 1, 2, 3, were never fully implemented, and as result they failed to stabilize the situation . There is a hope that Document 4 (Minsk II) will contribute to a (temporarily) de-escalation of the conflict . Formulations of certain issues have evolved as the conflict deteriorated, for example: . From general constitutional reform (e.g. better balance of powers) [Document 1] to decentralization of Ukraine with special conditions for DPR and LPR [Document 4] . From no observers to effective monitoring and verification by OSCE (including use of technical means) . From amnesty to provide pardons and amnesties by the enactment of a law prohibiting prosecution and punishment of persons related to the events . Document 3 and 4 include concrete obligations: Who does what when and how? . Missing: . Verification (Minsk I Art. 2, Minsk II Art. 2 last paragraph, and Art. 10) not sufficient . Enforcement . Sanctions, if violated

. Last, but not least: Crimea was never mentioned in the documentsNECOM | 07.03.2017 | 35 5. Events after Minsk II agreement 5.1. Oct 2014 – Dec 2015 Dec 2014 – Feb 2015 Debaltseve “pocket”

12.02.15 Minsk 2 signed

12.02.15 IMF USD 40b bailout package

17.02.15 Ukrainian forces withdraw from Debaltseve

06.03.15 Ukraine and Russia agree to double OSCE monitoring mission

25.03.15 Oligarch Kolomoisky fired as Regional Governor

14.05.15 EU and NATO announce joint efforts to counter “Hybrid Warfare”

31.05.15 Saakashvili appointed as Odessa Governor

30.06.15 Gas talks – no agreement

19.07.15 US and Ukraine military exercises

28.07.15 Russia blocks UN resolution on MH17

03.08.15 Ex-Prime Minister announces “Ukraine Salvation Committee”

3.08.15 Second IMF tranche

23.08.15 Poroshenko calls for unity on constitutional questions

26.09.15 “Winter gas” package agreed

12.11.15 Power cables to Crimea and Pylons blown up

01.12.15 UKR-EUR-RUS talks on DCFTA technical implementation NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 36 5.2. Jan 2016 – Dec 2016 05.01.16 Ukraine petitions for UN peacekeeping mission

19.01.16 Ukraine raises transit costs for Russian gas

22.03.16 Savchenko sentenced for 22 years

01.04.16 US announces USD 335 MM in support

07.04.16 Dutch voters reject EU-UKR association agreement

15.05.16 Ukraine singer wins Eurovision song contest

23.05.16 MH17 families sue Putin and Russia in ECHR

29.05.16 Savchenko released

03.06.16 UKR-US USD 1B loan agreement

09.06.16 Savchenko calls for direct talks with separatists

07.09.16 US imposes export restriction on 81 Russian Entities

14.09.16 IMF approves USD 18 MM tranche to Kiev

28.09.16 MH17 investigations concluded

17.10.16 “Motorola” killed

07.11.16 Saakashvili resigns

05.12.16 Naftogas re-enters gas negotiations with Russia

08.12.16 EU approves visa-free travel for Ukraine and Georgia

15.12.16 EU extends sanctions against Russia

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 37 5.3. Jan 2017 – nowadays 01.02.17. Poroshenko plans referendum to join NATO

01.02.17. Surge of violence

08.02.17. Rebel commander “Givi” killed

End of February 2017 Coal supply and railway from Donetsk and Lugansk blocked

01.03.17. Separatists seize control over coal producing companies

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 38 5.4. US elections – “Trump factor”

‘How the west lost Putin’, (3.02.2015): “US insiders say the president [Obama] feels Mr Putin was unresponsive to efforts to build a relationship. “Obama sees the world in win-win terms, Putin sees it in zero-sum terms,” says the ex-diplomat. In interview with ABC News Presidential Candidate Donald Trump says he will consider recognizing crimea as art of Russia: "But you know, the people of Crimea, from what I've heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were. And you have to look at that, also.“ (30.07.2016) NY Times: Secret Ledger Found in Ukraine Shows $12.7 mil Earmarked for Paul Manafort (15.08.2016) A secret ledger found in the former office of a pro-Russian Ukrainian political party shows that $12.7 million was earmarked for Trump adviser Paul Manafort over five years. Ukrainian prosecutors are also investigating Manafort’s involvement in offshore shell companies and purchase of Ukrainian television assets with a Russian oligarch. U.S. Imposes Export Restrictions on 81 Russian Entities (7.09.2016): The U.S. Department of Commerce added 81 Russian entities to an export-control list as part of U.S. sanctions against Russia in response to Russian actions in Ukraine. Many of the entities added to the Entity List are already sanctioned by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Eleven of the entities on the list manufacture electronic components within the Russian Defense industry and were added to the list for evading previous sanctions. The Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security requires U.S. and Foreign companies to obtain additional licensing for U.S.-origin items before exporting or re-exporting them to companies and individuals on the Entity List. Democratic Presidential Nominee Hillary Clinton meets with President Poroshenko Both Democratic Presidential Nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican Presidential Nominee Donald Trump were invited to meet with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Hillary Clinton opted to meet with Poroshenko on Monday September 19 and the two discussed the importance of continued sanctions imposed on Moscow after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Donald Trump opted not to meet Poroshenko and moved on to other events on the campaign trail. Poroshenko and Trump had a telephone conversation (15.11.2016): In his first phone call with President-elect Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called for Washington’s "resolute support...in countering Russian aggression.” Poroshenko said he was ready to work with Trump's new administration to strengthen bilateral ties, according to a statement posted on his website. He said the two agreed to meet in the future and that plans were being made for Poroshenko to visit Washington early in 2017, although Poroshenko did not mention a specific date. Poroshenko also stressed the need for Washington’s support for Ukraine to implement "crucial reforms." The conversation comes one day after Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone.

NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 39 6. Comments (NECOM-ETH) . The war has had catastrophic consequences with 6000 fatalities, destroyed infrastructure, and an even more precarious economic situation in Ukraine . So far mixed results regarding the ceasefire agreement . Does the Minsk II meet the real interests of the parties? . UKR:  Free development of its relationship with the partners of their choice  Control the whole territory . RUS (more difficult to identify):  Keep zone of influence around Russia → limit the maneuverability of UKR  “Transnistrianization” of Novorossija  Show determination to protect Russian minorities  Access to Crimea and Moldova (Will be the next Debaltseve?) . Enforcement of Russian interests has taken place . De facto division of Ukraine NECOM | 07.03.2017 | 40