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Connecting the Nodes: Migratory Whale Conservation and the Challenge of Accommodating Uncertainty Ph.D

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Connecting the Nodes: Migratory Whale Conservation and the Challenge of Accommodating Uncertainty Ph.D UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON Connecting the Nodes: Migratory Whale Conservation and the Challenge of Accommodating Uncertainty Ph.D. Thesis Christina Geijer April 2013 I, Christina Geijer, confirm that the work presented in this thesis is my own. Where information has been derived from other sources, I confirm that this has been indicated in the thesis. 1 Abstract As endangered, flagship species, baleen whales are at the centre of cetacean conservation efforts. Whilst successful conservation requires protection throughout a species’ range, current measures invariably focus on the whales’ more static feeding or breeding habitats. The aim of this thesis is to analyse the challenges and prospects of protecting threatened whales during their seasonal migrations. I sought to assess the appropriateness of Marine Protected Area network initiatives and sector-specific mitigations strategies for migratory whale conservation within the context of scientific uncertainty, the threat of ship-whale collisions, and regional geopolitics. To this end, I compared and contrasted data obtained from two case studies—fin whales Balaenoptera physalus in the Mediterranean Sea, and North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis off the U.S. East coast—using a transdisciplinary, qualitative research approach based on semi-structured interviews and a theoretical framework of uncertainty analysis. The results indicate that protection of migrating whales is better pursued through a narrow sectoral route with wide geographical scope, exemplified by the International Maritime Organisation, rather than governmental cross-sectoral Marine Protected Area networks, particularly in regions with high geopolitical complexity and low political will. Principle challenges to migratory whale conservation were discerned on two levels. On a species level, high ontological uncertainty—endemic dynamism and unpredictability—surrounding whale migratory behaviour render conventional, habitat-based conservation measures unsuitable, and require more creative, dynamic, and adaptive strategies. On a people level, considerable ambiguity— different ways of understanding and conceptualising the same issue or data—between individual researchers in the absence of adequate collaboration prevents the unified actions necessary for conserving a cross-boundary species. Indeed, whilst contextual parameters matter in conservation, building researcher networks to enhance collaboration amongst conservationists emerged as a pervasive theme and as a necessary tool for migratory whale conservation. 2 Acknowledgments I am much indebted to my supervisor Dr Peter Jones of University College London (UCL). Thank you for your guidance, valuable advice, and support throughout the PhD project. I would also like to thank my advisors Dr Jan Axmacher at UCL, and Professor Giuseppe Notarbartolo di Sciara, President of Tethys Research Institute, for their insightful comments and assistance. I am further grateful to the Department of Geography for providing me with the opportunity to teach ancillary classes in Human Geography at Universtity College London. I am equally grateful to Sören Nylin for offering me a guest researcher position at Stockholm University, and to Anders Angerbjörn, Karin Norén, and Martin Gullström for the opportunity to lecture in Marine Mammal Conservation and Biology at the aforementioned institution. I would also like to acknowledge and thank all the interviewees who participated in this project. It is thanks to the participants’ willingness to share their time and knowledge that I was able to undertake this doctoral research. I also wish to thank Drs Erich Hoyt, Tundi Agardy, and Giuseppe Notarbartolo di Sciara for their support and encouragement during the ICMMPA II. A special thank you is also due to Nadia Robbs, Sandra Stålhandske, and Baharan Kazemi for their camaraderie and company during the PhD project. Finally, I cannot thank Paul Neutzner and Lena Alfredius enough for their continuous encouragement, unflinching support, and creative and insightful thoughts. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract .................................................................................................................................... 2 Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................... 3 List of Tables ............................................................................................................................ 9 List of Figures ......................................................................................................................... 10 List of Abbreviations.............................................................................................................. 11 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 13 1.1.1. Introduction to the Baleen Whales .......................................................................... 14 1.2. Research Aims and Questions ......................................................................................... 15 1.2.1. Justification and Contribution .................................................................................. 17 1.3. Introduction to the Chapters .......................................................................................... 18 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW Overview ................................................................................................................................ 20 2.1. Conservation Context ...................................................................................................... 20 2.1.1. Species and Population Conservation Status ........................................................... 20 2.1.2. Past and Current Threats ......................................................................................... 23 2.2. Migration ......................................................................................................................... 27 2.2.1. An Endangered Phenomenon .................................................................................. 27 2.2.2. Traditional and Revisited Paradigms of Mysticete Migration .................................. 28 2.3. Conservation Strategies for Migratory Whales ............................................................... 29 4 2.3.1. Migratory Species Protection ................................................................................... 29 2.3.2. Marine Protected Area Networks ............................................................................ 32 2.3.2.1. Scaling Up From Marine Protected Areas ......................................................... 32 2.3.2.2. Connecting the Nodes ....................................................................................... 36 2.3.3. Sectoral Regulations ................................................................................................. 39 2.3.3.1. Marine Spatial Planning and Ocean Zoning ...................................................... 41 Chapter Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 43 CHAPTER 3 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK Overview ................................................................................................................................ 45 3.1. The Inevitability of Scientific Uncertainty ....................................................................... 45 3.1.1. Uncertainty and Conservation ................................................................................. 45 3.1.2 Bringing Uncertainty in From the Cold ..................................................................... 47 3.2. Theoretical Frameworks of Uncertainty Analysis ........................................................... 48 3.2.1. Uncertainty as a Matrix of Dimensions .................................................................... 49 3.2.2. Uncertainty as Different Knowledge Frames ........................................................... 52 3.2.3. Uncertainty as Confidence of Knowledge ................................................................ 53 3.2.4. Uncertainty as a Language ....................................................................................... 55 3.3. Policy View on Scientific Uncertainty .............................................................................. 56 3.3.1. The Precautionary Principle and Epistemic Uncertainty.......................................... 56 3.3.2. Adaptive Management and Ontological Uncertainty .............................................. 60 Chapter Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 61 CHAPTER 4 METHODOLOGY Overview ................................................................................................................................ 63 4.1. Research Background and Rationale............................................................................... 63 4.1.1. Research Approach .................................................................................................. 63 5 4.1.2. Schedule of PhD ....................................................................................................... 64 4.1.3. Triangulation ............................................................................................................ 65 4.1.4. Case Study
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