DOCSLIB.ORG

STRANGER THAN (SCIENCE) FICTION the Unpredicted Shrinking 2021 April of Ursula Von Der Leyen E

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
STRANGER THAN (SCIENCE) FICTION the Unpredicted Shrinking 2021 April of Ursula Von Der Leyen E EUR PE Diplomatic IRANIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Looming uncertainties… concerns…dangers COCAINE AND CASTANETS Spain’s rôle in the international drugs trade STRANGER THAN (SCIENCE) FICTION The unpredicted shrinking 2021 April of Ursula von der Leyen E 3 BRUSSELS - PARIS - GENEVA - MONACO EUROPEDIPLOMATIC IN THIS ISSUE n JABS, JOBS, AND JACKASSES The few successes and many failures of the EU Covid vaccination programme .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................p.5 n STRANGER THAN (SCIENCE) FICTION 5 The unpredicted shrinking of Ursula von der Leyen .......................................................................p.12 n IRANIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Looming uncertainties…concerns…dangers ......................................................................................................... p.18 n COCAINE AND CASTANETS 12 Spain’s rôle in the international drugs trade .................................................................................................p.28 n 20,000 TONNES UNDER THE SEA The growing use of narco-submarines in Europe .............................................................................. p.35 n NEWS IN BRIEF ....................................................................................................................................................................................................p.40 35 n POISONED ENTRAILS How Russian mischief interferes in European affairs ....................................................................p.46 n WOMEN IN EUROPE Europe still has a long way to go before reaching gender equality ..................p.53 53 n UK SPACE AGENCY Launching of a multi-million pound drive to design hospital of the future ......p.57 n ONLINE VACCINE SCAMS Interpol and homeland security investigations issue public warning .........p. 59 59 n Books Our selection ......................................................................................................................................................................................p. 62 “EUROPE DIPLOMATIC MAGAZINE” is characterized by a very open editorial line that allows it to capture all the themes EUR PE that affect directly or indirectly the European political, economic, social and security issues. Whether piracy in the Gulf of Aden Diplomatic and its threats to the global economy, articles about political leaders, geostrategic situations or technological developments affecting our civilization, Europe Diplomatic Magazine strives to work in comparing opinions and providing an objective magazine analysis based on extensive research. For a wide audience composed of both members of the diplomatic corps, lobbyists, international officials or academics, the magazine gives everyone the necessary and useful information about all topics that make up our daily lives. Covering sensitive issues such as nuclear, the rise of Islamism and energy dependence, the magazine opens its pages to recognized specialists who would like to express first order and exclusive information. But Europe Diplomatic Magazine is not only a source of information on recent topics. It is also addressing older facts with deep thought fur further analysis. Whether it’s news, security, diplomacy, technology, energy, terrorism, European affairs, no subject is treated superficially. Europe Diplomatic Magazine is an independent media, conveying balanced ideas of openness and analysis based on almost 30 years of experience in the journalistic world. Visit our site and please give us your comments: https://europe-diplomatic.eu/ [email protected] 3 EUROPEDIPLOMATIC Nikola Hendrickx 4 EUROPEDIPLOMATIC © Europa.eu JABS, JOBS, AND JACKASSES The few successes and many failures of the EU Covid vaccination programme Short of leading the entire population into a giant mixing machine run by demons, or accidentally setting off a thermo-nuclear device, it’s hard to imagine how the European Commission could have made a bigger mess of the COVID-19 vaccination programme. It would almost be funny, if it wasn’t so tragic. Just when nationalist sentiments are threatening to tear the European Union apart, the European Commission announces a whole series of ill-thought-out ideas that could hardly have been better designed to encourage others to think in a similar way. not in the EU from getting a dose of the Meanwhile, the member states have vaccine. This must be an absolute gift to fallen to squabbling over who gets what. the anti-EU campaigners of the UK (the The Austrian Chancellor, Sebastian government, for instance) whose own Kurz, for instance, has threatened to stop vaccination programme has been so the Union from buying any extra doses successful. of the Pfizer vaccine unless his country gets a bigger share of them, and has begun negotiations with Russia to buy their vaccine. © European Union © European Certainly, the so-called Sputnik V Jacques Delors vaccine seems to have cleared any acques Delors must be weeping regulatory hurdles. The covid-19 vaccine with frustration at the way the developed by the Gamaleya Research Commission over which he presided Institute, part of the Russian Ministry J of Health, has an efficacy of 91.6%, so successfully from 1985 to 1995 has according to interim results from a phase mishandled the pandemic and the 3 trial. According to the UK’s publication untidy way in which it has sought to for doctors, the highly-respected British vaccinate its citizens. Not only that, but it © Sputnikvaccine Sputnik V vaccine at the Gamaleya Medical Journal (BMJ), “The Gam- seems to have decided to prevent anyone Research Institute COVID-Vac, also known as Sputnik V, 5 EUROPEDIPLOMATIC was tested at 25 hospitals and polyclinics In another sign of panicky decision in Moscow between 7 September and making, the Commission even 24 November 2020. Just under 15,000 suspended use of the AstraZeneca volunteers received the vaccine (of vaccine out of a fear that it caused blood whom 1,611 were aged 60 or over) and clots. It’s still unclear if the vaccine 4,902 received the placebo (vaccine causes the clots, but in Britain, seven buffer composition).” So Austria should people died of blood clots following be OK there, even if the EU isn’t. vaccination, although no-one knows if that’s cause and effect or coincidence. But while Britain has emerged as the most At the time of writing, eleven people successful in vaccination terms, which have been reported to have developed Brexit fans say is due to them being outside blood clots out of the 30-million the EU, the UK faces the problem of its © Europa.eu vaccinated. That’s a risk percentage self-imposed isolation and the difficulty European Council President Charles Michel of 0.00003666666 recurring. The at a vaccination centre in Ukraine of having to rely on overseas production Medicines and Healthcare Products of more doses. Importing anything into Regulatory Agency (MHPRA), The virus pandemic? With nobody certain Britain now is a bureaucratic nightmare, which way to jump and with some leaving both exporters and importers World Health Organization (WHO) and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) countries talking about leaving the drowning in a sea of multi-lingual paper Union anyway and following the UK no-one has needed for more than 40 have said that the benefits outweigh the out into the friendless wilderness, years. That’s why the UK has decided to dangers. However, Germany suspended perhaps leaders less inclined to leave produce the American Novavax NVX- use of the AstraZeneca vaccine for are tending towards being over- CoV2373 Vaccine at a factory in the UK. people under 60. Different countries cautious. They shouldn’t be, because It is said to be 83% effective, even against have imposed different rules but the highly-contagious UK variant. As the overall some dozen European countries the nationalist politicians have been company says on its website: “Our vaccine introduced bans or restrictions, despite toning down their anti-EU rhetoric candidates are genetically engineered official EMA advice. during the pandemic. using three-dimensional nanostructures MANY PATHS, NO MAP The SARS-CoV-2 virus, of course, of recombinant proteins critical to disease is in no way hesitant. As soon as it pathogenesis.” The European Union and its member enters the human lung, it latches onto states are rich, resourceful, scientifically an angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 advanced and blessed with generally (ACE2) receptor, at which point a good health care systems. How can protease enzyme cuts off the spike of that suave togetherness have been the virus – it is surrounded by such shattered by something that is only spikes, which is what makes it look 60 to 200 nanometres in diameter? like a sea mine – and this releases the After all, a human hair is A human fusion machinery, which is somewhat hair is around 75,000 nanometres spring-loaded within the spike. The (nm) in diameter. Could it be that the virus and lung cell membranes then EU is still jittery over other factors, fuse so that the RNA of the virus can not least the world economy and the pour into the cell. Inside, it presents © Astrazeneca frightening cost of the COVID-19 round about two dozen genes to the Astra Zeneca vaccine manufacturing All the vaccines in circulation are different in one way or another. I had the Pfizer- BioNTech vaccine (British recipients were not
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi: Decision-Making and Factionalism in Iran’S Revolutionary Guard
    The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi: Decision-Making and Factionalism in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard SAEID GOLKAR AUGUST 2021 KASRA AARABI Contents Executive Summary 4 The Raisi Administration, the IRGC and the Creation of a New Islamic Government 6 The IRGC as the Foundation of Raisi’s Islamic Government The Clergy and the Guard: An Inseparable Bond 16 No Coup in Sight Upholding Clerical Superiority and Preserving Religious Legitimacy The Importance of Understanding the Guard 21 Shortcomings of Existing Approaches to the IRGC A New Model for Understanding the IRGC’s Intra-elite Factionalism 25 The Economic Vertex The Political Vertex The Security-Intelligence Vertex Charting IRGC Commanders’ Positions on the New Model Shades of Islamism: The Ideological Spectrum in the IRGC Conclusion 32 About the Authors 33 Saeid Golkar Kasra Aarabi Endnotes 34 4 The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi Executive Summary “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] has excelled in every field it has entered both internationally and domestically, including security, defence, service provision and construction,” declared Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi, then chief justice of Iran, in a speech to IRGC commanders on 17 March 2021.1 Four months on, Raisi, who assumes Iran’s presidency on 5 August after the country’s June 2021 election, has set his eyes on further empowering the IRGC with key ministerial and bureaucratic positions likely to be awarded to guardsmen under his new government. There is a clear reason for this ambition. Expanding the power of the IRGC serves the interests of both Raisi and his 82-year-old mentor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic.
    [Show full text]
  • Iran's Persian Gulf Policy
    IRAN’S PERSIAN GULF POLICY This book discusses the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran towards the states of the Persian Gulf from 1979 to 1998. It covers the perceptions Iranians and Arabs have of each other, Islamic revolutionary ideology, the Iran–Iraq war, the Gulf Crisis, the election of President Khatami and finally the role of external powers, such as the United States, in the region. Iran’s foreign policy has been more ideology based in the past but has become increasingly pragmatic. Today, Iran’s Persian Gulf policy does not differ greatly from that under the Shah. By tracing the policy over the past two decades, including a large number of interviews, the book helps to anticipate the relationship between Iran and the Gulf states. Christin Marschall completed her MPhil in Modern Middle Eastern Studies at St Antony’s College, Oxford, and received her PhD in History and Middle Eastern Studies from Harvard University. She lives in London and travels frequently to Iran and the Arab world. The mightiest of the princes of the world Came to the least considered of his courtiers; Sat down upon the fountain’s marble edge, One hand amid the goldfish in the pool; And thereupon a colloquy took place That I commend to all the chroniclers To show how violent great hearts can lose Their bitterness and find the honeycomb. ‘The Gift of Harun al-Rashid’, W.B. Yeats IRAN’S PERSIAN GULF POLICY From Khomeini to Khatami Christin Marschall TO TIM First published 2003 by RoutledgeCurzon 11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by RoutledgeCurzon 29 West 35th Street, New York, NY 10001 This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2003.
    [Show full text]
  • Examining 10 Warning Signs of Iran Nuclear Weapons
    International Committee In Search of Justice (ISJ) President: Dr. Alejo Vidal-Quadras Rue d’Arlon 63, B-1040 Brussels Belgium Tel : +32 2 400 1071 [email protected] www.isjcommittee.com EXAMINING 10 WARNING SIGNS OF IRAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT NOVEMBER 20,2014 Dr. Alejo Vidal Quadras, Former Vice‐President of European Parliament, Professor of Atomic and Nuclear Physics: “An objective, thoroughly researched report on the core issue of the nature of Iranian nuclear program and its status”. Bob Jospeh, Former US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, Senior White House Security Council staff on weapons of mass destruction: “A critically important report at a critically important time”. John Bolton, former US Ambassador to the UN, former Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security: "A timely and well document report with alarming findings on Iran's nuclear program." Contents Executive summary Chapter 1: SPND (organ in charge of weaponization) Chapter 2: Procurement of dual purpose equipment and its possible use for military dimensions of nuclear program Chapter 3: Secret enrichment of uranium Chapter 4: Enrichment using laser technology Chapter 5: High explosives tests and trigger mechanism Chapter 6: Neutron initiator Chapter 7: Manufacturing uranium metal (uranium hemisphere) Chapter 8: Hydro-dynamic tests and explosion vessels at Parchin site Chapter 9: Research on nuclear warhead Chapter 10: Key scientists and researchers engaged in possible military dimensions of nuclear program International Committee In Search of Justice (ISJ) was initially formed in 2008 as an informal group of EU parliamentarians to seek justice for the Iranian democratic opposition.
    [Show full text]
  • Full Issue File
    Biannual of Research Institute for Strategic Strategic for Institute Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs 31 Vol. 11. No.1. Winter&Spring2020 Advisory Board Mohsen Rezaee Mirghaed, Kamal Kharazi, Ali Akbar Velayati, Ahmad Vahidi, Saeed Jalili, Publisher Ali Shamkhanim, Hosein Amirabdolahian, Ali Bagheri Institute for Strategic Research Editorial Board Expediency Council Seyed Mohammad Kazem Sajjadpour Director Professor, School of International Relations Mohsen Rezaee Mirghaed Gulshan Dietl Associate Professor, Professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University Imam Hossein University Mohammad Marandi Professor, University of Tehran Jamshid Momtaz Editor-in-Chief Professor, University of Tehran Seyed Mohammad Kazem Mohammad Javad Zarif Sajjadpour Associate Professor, School of World Studies Professor of School of Mohiaddin Mesbahi International Relations Professor, Florida International University Hosein Salimi Professor, Allameh Tabatabii University Secretary of advisory board Seyed Jalal Dehghani Mohammad Nazari Professor, Allameh Tabatabii University Naser Hadian Director of Executive Affairs Assistant professor, University of Tehran Hadi Gholamnia Vitaly Naumkin Professor, Moscow State University Copyediting Hassan Hoseini Zeinab Ghasemi Tari Assistant Professor, University of Tehran Mohammad Ali Shirkhani Layout and Graphics Najmeh Ghaderi Professor, University of Tehran Foad Izadi Assistant Professor, University of Tehran Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs (IRFA) achieved the highest scientific ISSN: 2008-8221 grade from the Ministry of Science,
    [Show full text]
  • Examining 10 Warning Signs of Iran Nuclear Weapons Development
    International Committee In Search of Justice (ISJ) President: Dr. Alejo Vidal-Quadras Rue d’Arlon 63, B-1040 Brussels Belgium Tel : +32 2 400 1071 [email protected] www.isjcommittee.com EXAMINING 10 WARNING SIGNS OF IRAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT NOVEMBER 20,2014 Dr. Alejo Vidal Quadras, Former Vice‐President of European Parliament, Professor of Atomic and Nuclear Physics: “An objective, thoroughly researched report on the core issue of the nature of Iranian nuclear program and its status”. Bob Jospeh, Former US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, Senior White House Security Council staff on weapons of mass destruction: “A critically important report at a critically important time”. John Bolton, former US Ambassador to the UN, former Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security: "A timely and well document report with alarming findings on Iran's nuclear program." Contents Executive summary Chapter 1: SPND (organ in charge of weaponization) Chapter 2: Procurement of dual purpose equipment and its possible use for military dimensions of nuclear program Chapter 3: Secret enrichment of uranium Chapter 4: Enrichment using laser technology Chapter 5: High explosives tests and trigger mechanism Chapter 6: Neutron initiator Chapter 7: Manufacturing uranium metal (uranium hemisphere) Chapter 8: Hydro-dynamic tests and explosion vessels at Parchin site Chapter 9: Research on nuclear warhead Chapter 10: Key scientists and researchers engaged in possible military dimensions of nuclear program International Committee In Search of Justice (ISJ) was initially formed in 2008 as an informal group of EU parliamentarians to seek justice for the Iranian democratic opposition.
    [Show full text]
  • Country Report Iran September 2017
    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Country Report Iran Generated on November 13th 2017 Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square London E14 4QW United Kingdom _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For 60 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square The Economist Group London 750 Third Avenue E14 4QW 5th Floor United Kingdom New York, NY 10017, US Tel: +44 (0) 20 7576 8181 Tel: +1 212 541 0500 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7576 8476 Fax: +1 212 586 0248 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Hong Kong Geneva The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 1301 Cityplaza Four Rue de l’Athénée 32 12 Taikoo Wan Road 1206 Geneva Taikoo Shing Switzerland Hong Kong Tel: +852 2585 3888 Tel: +41 22 566 24 70 Fax: +852 2802 7638 Fax: +41 22 346 93 47 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] This report can be accessed electronically as soon as it is published by visiting store.eiu.com or by contacting a local sales representative.
    [Show full text]
  • Understanding the Role of State Identity in Foreign Policy Decision-Making
    The London School of Economics and Political Science UNDERSTANDING THE ROLE OF STATE IDENTITY IN FOREIGN POLICY DECISION-MAKING The Rise and Demise of Saudi–Iranian Rapprochement (1997–2009) ADEL ALTORAIFI A thesis submitted to the Department of International Relations of the London School of Economics and Political Science for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy London, October 2012 1 To Mom and Dad—for everything. 2 DECLARATION I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work. The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without the prior written consent of the author. I warrant that this authorization does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. The final word count of this thesis, including titles, footnotes and in-text citations, is 105,889 words. 3 ABSTRACT The objective of the thesis is to study the concept of state identity and its role in foreign policy decision-making through a constructivist analysis, with particular focus on the Saudi–Iranian rapprochement of 1997. While there has been a recent growth in the study of ideational factors and their effects on foreign policy in the Gulf, state identity remains understudied within mainstream International Relations (IR), Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA), and even Middle Eastern studies literature, despite its importance and manifestation in the region’s foreign policy discourses. The aim is to challenge purely realist and power-based explanations that have dominated the discourse on Middle Eastern foreign policy—and in particular, the examination of Saudi–Iranian relations.
    [Show full text]
  • Iran Case File (April 2019)
    IRAN CASE FILE July 2020 RASANAH International Institute for Iranian Studies, Al-Takhassusi St. Sahafah, Riyadh Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. P.O. Box: 12275 | Zip code: 11473 Contact us [email protected] +966112166696 The Executive Summary .............................................................4 Internal Affairs .........................................................................7 The Ideological File ......................................................................... 8 I. Supporters of Velayat-e Faqih and the Call to End the US Presence in Iraq .......................................................................... 8 II. Coronavirus Amid Muharram Gatherings in Najaf ............................ 9 The Political File ............................................................................12 I. The Bill to Hold Rouhani Accountable and the Conservatives’ Call for Him to Be Deposed .......................................12 II. The Supreme Leader Saves Rouhani From Interrogation and Rejects His Ouster .....................................................13 The Economic File ..........................................................................16 I. History of Economic Relations Between Iran and China .....................16 II. The Nature and Provisions of the 25-year Partnership Agreement ..... 17 III. Prospects of the Long Term Iranian-Chinese Partnership .................18 The Military File............................................................................ 20 Arab Affairs ............................................................................25
    [Show full text]
  • Leadership Divided? Nima Gerami
    The Domestic Politics of Iran’s Nuclear Debate LEADERSHIP DIVIDED? NIMA GERAMI LEADERSHIP DIVIDED? The Domestic Politics of Iran’s Nuclear Debate NIMA GERAMI The Washington Institute for Near East Policy www.washingtoninstitute.org Policy Focus 134 | February 2014 The opinions expressed in this Policy Focus are those of the author and not necessarily those of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, its Board of Trustees, or its Board of Advisors. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. © 2014 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050 Washington, DC 20036 Cover: Tehran newspaper headlines following signing of the Joint Plan of Action in Geneva. Design: 1000 Colors Contents Acknowledgments | v Executive Summary | vii 1. Introduction | 1 2. Limits on Iran’s Nuclear Debate: Secrecy and Self-Censorship | 3 3. Contextualizing Nuclear Decisionmaking: The Key Stakeholders | 9 4. The Political Landscape: Elite Factionalism and the Nuclear Debate | 19 5. Critical Junctures: Internal Divisions and Nuclear Policy Shifts | 31 6. Conclusion: Lessons Learned | 40 About the Author | 42 Figures Fig 1. Overview of Nuclear Decisionmaking in Iran | 11 Table 1. Formal Members of the Supreme National Security Council | 12 Acknowledgments I would like to express my gratitude to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, particularly Patrick Clawson, Michael Eisenstadt, and Mehdi Khalaji, for their encouragement, insights, and support during the preparation of this study.
    [Show full text]
  • RADICALIZATION DURING the ROUHANI YEARS Iran’S Political Shifts and Their Implications Contents
    ANALYSIS Political momentum in Iran now lies with the radicals. In the wake of U.S. sanctions, PEACE AND SECURITY President Hassan Rouhani’s policy of moderation has failed to produce promised RADICALIZATION economic growth. DURING THE Political shifts in Iran have up- ended the usual dynamics of inter-factional competition to not only affirm the radicals’ ROUHANI YEARS positions, but to also radical- ize the more moderate forces themselves. The hard-liners Iran’s Political Shifts and Their Implications remain a heterogenous group, with intense disputes over ideology and power. David Jalilvand and Achim Vogt (eds.) March 2021 Tehran’s nuclear and regional policies look set to become even more assertive while Iran’s progress in economic diversification renders con- cessions on its part less attractive. PEACE AND SECURITY RADICALIZATION DURING THE ROUHANI YEARS Iran’s Political Shifts and their Implications Contents Introduction 2 1 THE END OF MODERATION? SOCIAL AND POLITICAL RADICALISM UNDER HASSAN ROUHANI 4 Azadeh Zamirirad 2 RADICAL IRAN: GENERATIONAL CHANGES AND OUTLOOKS 9 Narges Bajoghli 3 IRAN’S HEZBOLLAH: A RADICAL AND DECISIVE POLITICAL CURRENT 15 Walter Posch 4 THE FUTURE OF IRAN’S NUCLEAR POLICY AND APPROACH TO THE JCPOA 23 Dina Esfandiary 5 A RADICAL IRAN: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PERSIAN GULF AND THE LEVANT 29 Hamidreza Azizi 6 IRAN’S RESISTANCE ECONOMY: AMBITIONS AND REALITY 36 David Jalilvand About the Authors 48 1 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – RADICALIZATION DURING THE ROUHANI YEARS Introduction At the start of 2021, the political momentum in Iranian stitutions.1 In February 2020, hard-liners constituted the domestic and foreign affairs lies squarely with the radicals.
    [Show full text]
  • Iran's New Narrative: the Regime Is Not in A
    MENU Policy Analysis / PolicyWatch 3434 Iran’s New Narrative: The Regime Is Not in a Hurry, But Washington Should Be by Omer Carmi Feb 11, 2021 Also available in Arabic / Farsi ABOUT THE AUTHORS Omer Carmi Omer Carmi was a 2017 military fellow at The Washington Institute. Brief Analysis By steadily implementing parliament’s anti-JCPOA law and making public statements about “cornered cats” and “closing windows,” Tehran has sought to give Washington a sense of urgency, but this approach could be a double- edged sword. n January 8, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei explained that Iran is not “in a hurry” for Washington to return O to the nuclear deal, and that if sanctions are not lifted beforehand, then a U.S. return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action “may even be detrimental” to the Islamic Republic. He further hardened this stance in a February 7 speech, refuting proposals for any sequencing mechanism in which both countries make incremental moves back to the JCPOA. Instead, he emphasized that after Washington agrees to remove sanctions, Iran “will check if [they] have truly been lifted,” and only then resume its nuclear commitments. President Hassan Rouhani fell in with this narrative three days later, declaring that he supports “negotiations with enemies” in the framework of the Islamic Republic’s national interests, and noting that Tehran will fulfill its commitments once the United States and other parties implement theirs. These remarks are just part of a broader regime campaign to show Washington that Iran will not arrive at the negotiating table from a position of weakness, but rather with clear unity of purpose.
    [Show full text]
  • Iran Slashes Its Presidential Candidates List by Omer Carmi
    MENU Policy Analysis / PolicyWatch 3490 A Race of One? Iran Slashes Its Presidential Candidates List by Omer Carmi May 25, 2021 Also available in Arabic / Farsi ABOUT THE AUTHORS Omer Carmi Omer Carmi was a 2017 military fellow at The Washington Institute. Brief Analysis The regime is seemingly removing any obstacle that might prevent Ebrahim Raisi from winning the presidency and, perhaps, succeeding Khamenei down the road, but the risk of further eroding its internal legitimacy is high. ran’s presidential campaign offered up a “May surprise” this week, with the Guardian Council announcing that I several prominent candidates had been disqualified from running in the June 18 vote. Although mass disqualifications are nothing new for the regime, some of the names on this year’s chopping block were unexpected: only seven of the forty candidates who met the minimum registration criteria earlier this month were ultimately approved to run, and the finalists do not include high-profile figures such as former Majlis speaker Ali Larijani, Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, or former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. So far, Larijani and other disqualified candidates have announced that they accept the council’s judgment and will not ask Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to overturn it. Yet other prominent figures have been openly critical. Larijani’s brother Sadegh, a former judiciary chief, called the decision “indefensible.” Disqualified reformist Mostafa Tajzadeh went further, arguing that “no responsible citizen should surrender” to the council’s move, then declaring that the decision aimed to topple the “republican” part of the Islamic Republic. Even Ebrahim Raisi—the frontrunner who stands to benefit most from the disqualifications—expressed concern, noting that he has been trying to make the election more competitive and participatory.
    [Show full text]