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Market Study for Soft Fruits in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bih), Kosovo and North Macedonia

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Market Study for Soft Fruits in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bih), Kosovo and North Macedonia Market Study for Soft fruits in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Kosovo and North Macedonia Identification of potentials for soft fruits sector (raspberry, strawberry, blueberry) in Western Balkan countries (Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Kosovo and North Macedonia) Methodology SWOT Opportunities •Production •Identification of •Identification of rirks for •Trade strategioptions based on Dutch investments •Prices •Identification of SWOT •Identification of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities for the opportunities and treats Dutch companies of beery sector in region Trends TOWS Risks Methodology Data mining All the data collected originate from reliable international databases (UN FAO, UN Comtrade, Eurostat, ITC Trade Map, Country’s official statistics) that offer wide range of data for all countries of the world. The same methodology used to collect data from individual countries is offering the opportunity for it to be compared and crossed between different regions and countries without a fear of misinterpretation leading to wrong conclusions caused by using different datasets based on various methodologies and preferences. Exception of the rule in this analysis is Kosovo data since Kosovo isn’t recognized by the United Nations, the main source of data in the analysis. Therefore, various reports were used to fill the gaps of missing information as much as possible. Data inconsistency - official statistics and other publicly available data concerning the production and export differs Countries and regions Number of indicators regarding supply and demand and using data explained above apply on 40 countries in 4 regions, focusing primarily on main competitors or potential markets for Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina North Macedonia or Kosovo Regions are based on current political and geographical connections. • CEFTA (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, North Macedonia, Kosovo) • CIS (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan) • NMS – New Member States of the EU (Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia) • EU15 – First 15 members of the Union (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom) Abbreviations BiH – Bosnia and Herzegovina BRC – British Retail Consortium standard CEFTA – Central European Free Trade Agreement CIS - Commonwealth of Independent States EU 15 – EU member states accessed the EU before 2004 IFS - International Featured Standards IP – Intellectual Property IQF - Individually Quick Frozen MENA - Middle East and North Africa region. The term covers an extensive region, extending from Morocco to Iran, including all Mashriq and Maghreb countries. NMS – New member states - EU member states accessed the EU after 2004 PBR – Plant Breeders Rights WB - Western Balkan countries (Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Kosovo and North Macedonia) Production trends Global production trends – Raspberry Raspberry production is growing Production growth of selected countries in relation to World growth and their World • Production has been intensified in the share for period 2011-2016 30% last 15 years: the area under raspberries are increased by 21% and production by 41.5%. Production growth in recent years 143.7 thsd. t is the result of increasing demand on the 25% world market, the entry of new countries into production and intensification of production (Mexico, Spain, Morocco, 20% 116.8 thsd. t Scotland and the Netherlands). Biggest raspberry production is in Russia, while Serbia 101.0 thsd. t the largest area under raspberries in 15% 69.7 thsd. t Poland. share • BiH has the highest growth in the region d besides Kosovo which growing with 30.2 thsd. t Worl 10% average rate of more than 2,000% but 16.6 thsd. t North Macedonia since it’s relatively small nominal growth, 0.1 thsd. t Kosovo is excluded from the graph B&H 5% 10.6 thsd. t • Production in Poland, on average, 12.0 thsd. t 11.9 thsd. t 1.2 thsd. t growing at the same pace as the World 3.6 thsd. t growth. Russia, the World biggest 0% producer is growing slower than the 2.2 thsd. 4.0t thsd. t World average. In 2016 Russia has more significant growth since it’s recovering the -5% volume of harvested area after big decline -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% a few years ago. Serbia Macedonia Growth NMSin relation with World EU15average B&H • Production in USA is also growing fast Ukraine Kosovo CEFTA Netherlands Italy while in Serbia it is declining Poland France Russian Federation Chile USA Source: FAOSTAT & Eurostat Global production trends – Raspberry Raspberry production is growing Top 20 producing countries marked by country groups for period 2011-2016 160 • Permanent production increase 140 ons with the peak in 2016 t 120 100 • Leader world producer is Russia. 80 60 Poland covers cca 70% of 40 20 production out of the EU Thousand Thousand 0 production. In EU significant share for the fresh market are having Spain, Poland, Netherlands and Portugal, while at frozen market Poland dominates. CEFTA NMS CIS EU15 Rest of World • Ukraine and Russia are big Source: Authors’ systematization producers but net importers. Global raspberry production • At CEFTA region - Serbia is the 900 biggest producer and exporter 800 of frozen raspberries. BiH and 700 Kosovo are having impressive 600 growth in production. 500 Thousand Thousand tons Production in North Macedonia 400 and Croatia is insignificant. 300 • Increase of the production of 200 many sector newcomers like 100 BiH, Kosovo, Belgium, Morocco, 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Bulgaria. Source: FAOSTAT & authors’ estimate Global production trends – Strawberry Strawberry production is growing Production growth of selected countries in relation to World growth and their World share for period 2011-2016 • The biggest global strawberry 3% producers are China and USA, 185.6 thsd. t 3% 185.8 thsd. t followed by Mexico, Turkey, Egypt and 2% Spain. 2% • Poland as well as Russian federation share 63.3 thsd. t d 63.4 thsd. t while being big producers are also 1% 34.6 thsd. t Croatia showing good growth compared in Worl 53.4 thsd. t 1% 6.3 thsd. t 2.7 thsd. t production, compared to other 19.2 thsd. t 0% analyzed countries. Serbia North Macedonia B&H -1% • Besides Kosovo who’s percentage of 27.3 thsd. t 4.3 thsd. t 9.1 thsd. t -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% growth is caused by small production quantity, Croatia is the fastest growing Growth in relation with World average Serbia Macedonia NMS EU15 country in the region with 27% higher B&H Ukraine CEFTA Croatia growth than the World average for the Netherlands Poland Russian Federation Chile analysed period. Global strawberry production Top 20 producing countries marked by country groups for period 2011-2016 10 1,000 t 800 8 600 6 400 Million Million tons Thousands Thousands 200 3,105.83 1,377.52 4 0 2 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CEFTA NMS CIS EU15 Rest of World Source: FAOSTAT & Eurostat WB production trends, raspberry BiH and Kosovo as young producers are Kosovo North Macedonia growing fast, while area under raspberry in 200 30 5 1.2 Serbia is declining 1 25 4 150 • Area under raspberry in Serbia 0.8 20 dropped from more than 15 3 ha Thousand tons Thousand 0.6 100 15 thousand hectares in 2011 to 11 tons 2 Thousand hectares Thousand thousand in 2014. 0.4 10 50 • Significant growth of 1 5 0.2 production in both BiH and 0 0 0 0 Kosovo is partly due to high 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 export prices in previous years. Serbia Bosnia and Herzegovina • Significant decline in area under 100 18 25 3 raspberry in North Macedonia 90 16 followed by record low yield in 20 2.5 80 14 2016 (4.4 t/ha). 70 2 12 15 Thousand tons Thousand 60 Thousand tons 10 1.5 Thousand hectares Thousand 50 Thousand hectares 10 8 40 1 6 30 5 0.5 20 4 0 0 10 2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 0 Quantity Area harvested 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: FAOSTAT, Eurostat, USAID Production models - Raspberry BiH Kosovo Serbia Poland Spain UK Mexico Open field Open field Open field Open field Polythene tunnels Polythene tunnels 80% Under Beneficial Insects tunnels Raised plastic Soil or pots covered bed Soil sterilization Harvest Hand picking Hand picking Hand picking Hand and Hand picking into Hand picking into Hand picking into machinery retail punnet retail punnet retail punnet.. picking Infrastructure Post and wire Post and wire Post and wire, with multiple lateral supports Cultivars Willamette Polka (75%) Willamette (90%) Glen and Ample Adelita, Tulameen Driscoll Maravilla, Maravilla, Meeker Willamette (10%) Meeker (5%) line. / autumn: and Glen Lyon Berry Gem, Berry Carmina, Meeker (10%) others (5%). Polka, Polana. Santa Teresa, Jewel, Grandeur, Esperanza, Tulameen, Santa Cla ra and Kwanza sevillana, adelita, Autumn Bliss. Santa Catalina Driscoll Riviera erika, others. Imara, Kweli, Bountiful, Lagorie and Ovation, Paragon Vajolet – Plant Science Varieties Lagorai, Vajolet – Sant Orsola varieties CEFTA production - Strawberry Production distribution in CEFTA Situation in CEFTA is changing in recent years 100% • Only five years ago, production 90% of strawberries in CEFTA was 80% almost exclusively in one 70% 60% country, Serbia. 50% • Growth of production in BiH / 40% reached almost 30% of 30% production share in CEFTA. 20% • Kosovo is also started with 10% strawberry production in recent 0% years. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Albania Kosovo Macedonia Serbia B&H Montenegro Croatia 2012 Chart Title Albania Albania Kosovo Kosovo Macedonia Macedonia Serbia Serbia B&H B&H Montenegro Montenegro Croatia * Missing Kosovo data for 2016 so 2015 is Source: FAOSTAT, Eurostat used for better illustration CEFTA production - Strawberry Production growth of selected countries in relation to CEFTA and their CEFTA Serbia is the biggest producer, BiH and share for period 2011-2016 Kosovo are growing faster 80% • Overall production in CEFTA Serbia 60% 27.3 thsd.
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