Market Study for Soft fruits in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Kosovo and North Macedonia
Identification of potentials for soft fruits sector (raspberry, strawberry, blueberry) in Western Balkan countries (Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Kosovo and North Macedonia) Methodology
SWOT Opportunities •Production •Identification of •Identification of rirks for •Trade strategioptions based on Dutch investments •Prices •Identification of SWOT •Identification of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities for the opportunities and treats Dutch companies of beery sector in region
Trends TOWS Risks Methodology
Data mining All the data collected originate from reliable international databases (UN FAO, UN Comtrade, Eurostat, ITC Trade Map, Country’s official statistics) that offer wide range of data for all countries of the world. The same methodology used to collect data from individual countries is offering the opportunity for it to be compared and crossed between different regions and countries without a fear of misinterpretation leading to wrong conclusions caused by using different datasets based on various methodologies and preferences. Exception of the rule in this analysis is Kosovo data since Kosovo isn’t recognized by the United Nations, the main source of data in the analysis. Therefore, various reports were used to fill the gaps of missing information as much as possible.
Data inconsistency - official statistics and other publicly available data concerning the production and export differs
Countries and regions Number of indicators regarding supply and demand and using data explained above apply on 40 countries in 4 regions, focusing primarily on main competitors or potential markets for Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina North Macedonia or Kosovo Regions are based on current political and geographical connections. • CEFTA (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, North Macedonia, Kosovo) • CIS (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan) • NMS – New Member States of the EU (Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia) • EU15 – First 15 members of the Union (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom) Abbreviations
BiH – Bosnia and Herzegovina BRC – British Retail Consortium standard CEFTA – Central European Free Trade Agreement CIS - Commonwealth of Independent States EU 15 – EU member states accessed the EU before 2004 IFS - International Featured Standards IP – Intellectual Property IQF - Individually Quick Frozen MENA - Middle East and North Africa region. The term covers an extensive region, extending from Morocco to Iran, including all Mashriq and Maghreb countries. NMS – New member states - EU member states accessed the EU after 2004 PBR – Plant Breeders Rights WB - Western Balkan countries (Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Kosovo and North Macedonia) Production trends Global production trends – Raspberry Raspberry production is growing Production growth of selected countries in relation to World growth and their World • Production has been intensified in the share for period 2011-2016 30% last 15 years: the area under raspberries are increased by 21% and production by 41.5%. Production growth in recent years 143.7 thsd. t is the result of increasing demand on the 25% world market, the entry of new countries into production and intensification of production (Mexico, Spain, Morocco, 20% 116.8 thsd. t Scotland and the Netherlands). Biggest raspberry production is in Russia, while Serbia 101.0 thsd. t the largest area under raspberries in 15% 69.7 thsd. t Poland.
share • BiH has the highest growth in the region d besides Kosovo which growing with 30.2 thsd. t Worl 10% average rate of more than 2,000% but 16.6 thsd. t North Macedonia since it’s relatively small nominal growth, 0.1 thsd. t Kosovo is excluded from the graph B&H 5% 10.6 thsd. t • Production in Poland, on average, 12.0 thsd. t 11.9 thsd. t 1.2 thsd. t growing at the same pace as the World 3.6 thsd. t growth. Russia, the World biggest 0% producer is growing slower than the 2.2 thsd. 4.0t thsd. t World average. In 2016 Russia has more significant growth since it’s recovering the -5% volume of harvested area after big decline -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% a few years ago. Serbia Macedonia Growth NMSin relation with World EU15average B&H • Production in USA is also growing fast Ukraine Kosovo CEFTA Netherlands Italy while in Serbia it is declining Poland France Russian Federation Chile USA Source: FAOSTAT & Eurostat Global production trends – Raspberry Raspberry production is growing Top 20 producing countries marked by country groups for period 2011-2016 160 • Permanent production increase 140
ons with the peak in 2016 t 120 100 • Leader world producer is Russia. 80 60 Poland covers cca 70% of 40
20 production out of the EU Thousand Thousand 0 production. In EU significant share for the fresh market are having Spain, Poland, Netherlands and Portugal, while at frozen market Poland dominates. CEFTA NMS CIS EU15 Rest of World • Ukraine and Russia are big Source: Authors’ systematization producers but net importers. Global raspberry production • At CEFTA region - Serbia is the 900 biggest producer and exporter 800 of frozen raspberries. BiH and 700 Kosovo are having impressive 600 growth in production. 500 Thousand Thousand tons Production in North Macedonia 400 and Croatia is insignificant. 300 • Increase of the production of 200 many sector newcomers like 100 BiH, Kosovo, Belgium, Morocco, 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Bulgaria. Source: FAOSTAT & authors’ estimate Million tons 10 Source: Source:
0 2 4 6 8 World share -1% 0% 2% 2% 3% 3% 1% 1% 27.3 27.3 -20% Serbia 2009 Netherlands B&H Serbia 34.6 34.6 FAOSTAT &Eurostat thsd. t thsd. Production Production growth of selected countries in relation to World growth and their World thsd. t thsd. Global strawberry production Global strawberry 185.8 185.8 2010 -15% thsd. t thsd. 2011 63.3 63.3 6.3 6.3 -10% thsd. t thsd. thsd. t thsd. North North 2012 4.3 4.3 Macedonia Poland Ukraine Macedonia thsd. t thsd. 2013 -5% share for period share for period Growth relationin with W 2014 Global p 0% 185.6 185.6 9.1 9.1 63.4 63.4 2015 B&H thsd. t thsd. 19.2 19.2 thsd. t thsd. 53.4 53.4 thsd. t thsd. thsd. t thsd. 2011 5% thsd. thsd. t 2016 Russian FederationRussian CEFTA NMS - 2016 o rld average rld 10% Thousands t roduction trends 1,000 200 400 600 800 0 15%
3,105.83 Top
1,377.52 20 Chile Croatia EU15 20% producing countries marked producingmarked by countries countryfor groups period CEFTA 25% 2.7 2.7 Croatia NMS thsd. t thsd. 30% CIS • • • is growing production Strawberry EU15 analysed growth country quantity, growth Besides analyzed production, showing while Poland Spain followed producers The – Rest of Worldof Rest . being biggest than is as Strawberry in Kosovo period Croatia countries by good caused the well Mexico, are the big compared region . as growth World is 2011 who by global . producers China the Russian - 2016 Turkey, ’ small s with fastest average percentage compared 27 and production to strawberry federation Egypt % are growing for higher other USA, also and the of in WB production trends, raspberry BiH and Kosovo as young producers are Kosovo North Macedonia growing fast, while area under raspberry in 200 30 5 1.2 Serbia is declining 1 25 4 150 • Area under raspberry in Serbia 0.8 20 dropped from more than 15
3 ha
Thousand tons Thousand 0.6 100 15 thousand hectares in 2011 to 11 tons 2
Thousand hectares Thousand thousand in 2014. 0.4 10 50 • Significant growth of 1 5 0.2 production in both BiH and 0 0 0 0 Kosovo is partly due to high 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 export prices in previous years. Serbia Bosnia and Herzegovina • Significant decline in area under 100 18 25 3 raspberry in North Macedonia 90 16 followed by record low yield in 20 2.5 80 14 2016 (4.4 t/ha). 70 2
12 15 Thousand tons Thousand 60 Thousand tons
10 1.5 Thousand hectares Thousand 50 Thousand hectares 10 8 40 1 6 30 5 0.5 20 4 0 0 10 2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 0 Quantity Area harvested 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: FAOSTAT, Eurostat, USAID Production models - Raspberry
BiH Kosovo Serbia Poland Spain UK Mexico Open field Open field Open field Open field Polythene tunnels Polythene tunnels 80% Under Beneficial Insects tunnels Raised plastic Soil or pots covered bed Soil sterilization
Harvest Hand picking Hand picking Hand picking Hand and Hand picking into Hand picking into Hand picking into machinery retail punnet retail punnet retail punnet.. picking Infrastructure Post and wire Post and wire Post and wire, with multiple lateral supports
Cultivars Willamette Polka (75%) Willamette (90%) Glen and Ample Adelita, Tulameen Driscoll Maravilla, Maravilla, Meeker Willamette (10%) Meeker (5%) line. / autumn: and Glen Lyon Berry Gem, Berry Carmina, Meeker (10%) others (5%). Polka, Polana. Santa Teresa, Jewel, Grandeur, Esperanza, Tulameen, Santa Cla ra and Kwanza sevillana, adelita, Autumn Bliss. Santa Catalina Driscoll Riviera erika, others. Imara, Kweli, Bountiful, Lagorie and Ovation, Paragon Vajolet – Plant Science Varieties Lagorai, Vajolet – Sant Orsola varieties CEFTA production - Strawberry
Production distribution in CEFTA Situation in CEFTA is changing in recent years 100% • Only five years ago, production 90% of strawberries in CEFTA was 80% almost exclusively in one 70% 60% country, Serbia. 50% • Growth of production in BiH / 40% reached almost 30% of 30% production share in CEFTA. 20% • Kosovo is also started with 10% strawberry production in recent 0% years. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Albania Kosovo Macedonia Serbia B&H Montenegro Croatia
2012 Chart Title
Albania Albania Kosovo Kosovo Macedonia Macedonia Serbia Serbia B&H B&H Montenegro Montenegro Croatia * Missing Kosovo data for 2016 so 2015 is Source: FAOSTAT, Eurostat used for better illustration CEFTA production - Strawberry
Production growth of selected countries in relation to CEFTA and their CEFTA Serbia is the biggest producer, BiH and share for period 2011-2016 Kosovo are growing faster 80% • Overall production in CEFTA Serbia 60% 27.3 thsd. t region is about 40.000 tons with 40% B&H decrease from 47.000 in 2013 to 9.1 thsd. t Croatia 20% North 36.000 t in 2016. 2.7 thsd. t Macedonia Kosovo • Area under strawberries in 0% 4.3 thsd. t 0.8 thsd. t
Average CEFTA share CEFTA Average CEFTA remains almost the same -20% in the last five years which -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Average grovth in relation to CEFTA share indicates that yield varies, depending on the weather Kosovo Macedonia Serbia B&H Croatia conditions. • Besides BiH and Kosovo, CEFTA production Croatia has also substantially 60 12 grew in the past five years. 50 10 40 8
30 6 Thousand tons Thousand
20 4 Thousand hectares Thousand 10 2 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Production (t) Harvested area (ha) Source: FAOSTAT, Eurostat Production and harvested area - Strawberry
Bosnia and Herzegovina Kosovo Serbia is the biggest producer, BiH and Kosovo are growing faster 12,000 1,350 2,000 250 • Kosovo has the highest 10,000 1,300 200 1,500 percentage of growth. 8,000 1,250 150 Production continued to grow
1,000 ha tons 100
6,000 1,200 ha
tons although area stagnated in 500 4,000 1,150 50 2015.
2,000 1,100 0 0 • In BiH, in the last 4 years area 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 under strawberry is growing 0 1,050 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Quantity produced Area harvested faster than the quantity produced. Serbia North Macedonia • In 2016 Serbia had significant 40,000 8,000 6,000 860 growth in area under 35,000 7,000 5,000 840 strawberry, but production 30,000 6,000 820 declined which indicates that 4,000 25,000 5,000 800 new, unexperienced producers
3,000 ha tons 20,000 4,000 ha affected the average yield in tons 780 15,000 3,000 2,000 the sector. 760 10,000 2,000 • North Macedonian production 1,000 740 5,000 1,000 faced first decline in both 0 720 0 0 production quantity and area 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 harvested since 2013. However, Source: FAOSTAT, Eurostat yield shows growth. EU Production - strawberry EU production Spain is dominant EU strawberry producer, 1,200 70 Poland in NMS
1,000 60 • Almost entire production of 50 strawberry in NMS is 800 40 concentrated in Poland.
Thousand tons Thousand 600 30 • In average area under 400 Thousand hectares 20 strawberry in NMS is bigger 200 10 than in EU15, but production is 0 0 a lot lower. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EU 15 production (t) NMS production (t) Harvested area EU 15 (ha) Harvested area NMS (ha)
EU 15 production per country in period 2011-2016 NMS production per country in period 350 45 2011-2016 300 40 200 30 35 250 30 25 200 25 150 Thousands 20 150 20 100 15 Thousands 100 15 10 50 5 10 50 0 0 5
0 0
Malta
Latvia
Cyprus
Poland
Estonia
Czechia
Bulgaria
Slovakia
Slovenia
Hungary
Romania Lithuania
Prroduction (t) Yield (t/ha) Production (t) Yield (t/ha) Source: FAOSTAT, Eurostat WB production trends – Raspberry
Current trends
Serbia Stagnation of the production According to Statistic agency Raspberry production in 2016 was 61,875 tons, which is slightly higher than the production in 2014 (61,715) and 6% less than in 2015 (66,176). Estimation of raspberry production in 2017 is about 57,631 tons, which would represent a decrease in production compared to 2016 by 6.9%. According to Cold storage Association Serbia produces about 80-85,000 tones of per year. In 2016, a record raspberry yield of about 90,000 tons was achieved, which, with transitional stocks of 15,000 tons, and from imported 5,000 tons, amounted to about 110,000 tons and ranked Serbia in the first place on the world exporters. Poland has a production of 85-90,000 t, the United States, 70,000 tons, 55-60,000 t. Serbia transferred stocks in 217 were about 25-30,000 tons. Serbia Major production regions are located in the territory of the several municipalities of Central and Western Serbia. 90% of the production for more than 45 years is based on floricane variety Willamette. At 1980ties cv. Meeker is introduced in production but with limited share. In recent years new raspberry plantations with primocane varieties are established in regions were raspberry was not traditionally grown as Backa in Vojvodina, Raska district (Novi Pazar, Sjenica) and southern Serbia (Leskovac, Lebane, Vlad. Han). BiH Increase of the production as consequence of increase of areas and intensification of the production despite the price challenge in 2017. Country with high increase of growth of the raspberry production – 16% increase per year in comparison to the world growth. Production concentration in Central Bosnia Canton and east BiH very much driven by the collection points (cold storages) Kosovo Increase of the production based on primocane varieties. Regional concentration Podujeva 50%, Ferizaj 10 %, Shterpce 10% Serbia, BiH, Kosovo Diversification of the production technologies: BiH producers are not just following prevailing model introduced from Serbia but differentiating and developing their models. Kosovo producers are producing quality Polka fruit recognized buy the export market in 2016. In Serbia primocane variety production is spreading in Vojvodina region.
Serbia, BiH, Kosovo Producer specialization and contracted relations to cold storages which are pre financing the production by provision of pesticides and fertilizers, but also controlling the production technology and quality of raspberries agreed by contract
Serbia Introduction of new varieties (Tulamagic, Himbo Top) for the fresh market
BiH, Kosovo, Serbia Implementation of standards (Organic and IPM in BiH, GlobalGAP in Kosovo, organic in Serbia) WB production trends – Strawberry
Current trends
Serbia In CEFTA region Serbia is dominant producer with the modest stagnating production and some increase od fresh export to Russia using the opportunity of absence of EU competitors
BiH, Kosovo Bosna and Herzegovina and Kosovo are increasing the production in last 3 years (2014 – 2016) but the production is still scattered based on donor initiatives or at individual stable and permanent production.
BiH In BiH, production in Herzegovina based on about 300.000 plans per year in the municipalities Capljina and Ljubusko – 50 – 50%. The prevailing cultivar (90%) is Clery. Strawberry production is concentrated in Celici. There are several attempts to introduce again Senga Sengana favorite processing variety (projects in Bratunac and Srebrenica) but this attempts failed due to the fact that raspberry prices were very competitive at period 2012 – 2016 in comparison to raspberry. Serbia, BiH, Kosovo There are some indication (increased sales of strawberry planting material in 2016) that producers disappointed by the raspberry price in 2017 might consider diversifying production on strawberry cultivation Organic production trends
Current trends High demand for the certified products (organic) – opportunity to sell the conventional if you have certified product Price of organic raspberry 30-40% higher than commercial, easier to sell. ( Willamette 0.9 euros in 2017 and organic certified was 1.17 euros. Heko company is looking for organic now his offer was 1.5 euros for organic. In Zepce currently 4 – 5 ha are organic, 10-15 ha in perspective Organic certification in Srebrenica via ZZ Srebrenica and Boss Agro Food Nursery in Zeljezno polje established organic certified raspberry mothe rplantation in 2017 100.000 plants BiH certification body Organska kontrola has high reputation in the region and EU In Kosovo, Zeleni Hit company from Serbia cooperates with Eurofruit company on organic certification 5% of the producers in Kosovo are GLOBALG.A.P. certified
Future trends General expestations are that good producres will turn part of the production in organic and being certified it in the future In Kosovo expectation is that producers will be certified for GLOBALG.A.P. The national association and USAID project are investing a lot on increse of production practices and standards certification Trade trends Global trade trend – frozen and fresh raspberry Export declining on both markets Fresh raspberry World export (mirror data) 2,000 The value of the raspberry export is about 3 billion dollars. The both 1,500
Millions fresh and frozen raspberry trade 1,000 had growing trend until 2015. In 2015, export of fresh raspberries 500 fresh market reached 1.94 billion 0 USD while frozen export pick was 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1.10 billion. Market declined after Quantity (kg) Value ($) 2008 crises and recovered very fast for the fresh raspberries and in Frozen raspberry World export (mirror data) 2013 the frozen raspberry market 1,200 raised until 2015. Both fresh and 1,000 frozen exports declined in 2016. Millions 800
600
400
200
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Quantity (kg) Value ($)
Source: UN Comtrade Global trade trend – frozen and fresh strawberry
Fresh strawberry World export (mirror data) Export stagnating in the last 5 years 3,000 The value of the strawberry export 2,500 is over 3, 3 billion dollars. Fresh
Millions 2,000 strawberry export reached 2.5 1,500 billion USD and since than is 1,000 stagnating with decrease from 500 2015. The export of frozen is stagnating from 2011 with further 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 drop in 2015 and 2016.
Quantity (kg) Value ($)
Frozen strawberry World export (mirror data) 1,200
1,000
Millions 800
600
400
200
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Quantity (kg) Value ($)
Source: UN Comtrade Global trade trend – blueberry High growth expected to continue Value of blueberry market passed Fresh blueberry World export (mirror data) magic 2 billion dollar point in 2016. 2,500 Export value grew more than 16 times in this millennium, and Millions growth in the last decade is 2,000 around steady 15% yearly. Exported quantity is also rising but at much slower pace. In 2016, 2.7 1,500 times more blueberries were exported than 10 years ago. With higher demand comes bigger 1,000 price which almost doubled in case of blueberries from the begging of the century, from 5.1 $/kg in 2000 500 to 9.4 $/kg in 2016.
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Quantity (kg) Value ($)
Source: UN Comtrade Global trade – Frozen raspberry
Top 20 exporters Main trends: 300 250 • Serbia, Poland and Chile are 200 150 main exporters of the frozen 100 50 raspberry Million dollarsMillion 0 • Serbia is the leader in raspberry export with average value of over 250 million USD per year CEFTA CIS NMS EU15 Rest of the World • Export from BiH is increasing 24 Source: Systematization of authors Export trend for selected countries relation to World average pp in comparison to world for period 2011-2016 growth Serbia 35% 180.9 mill. $ 255.0 mill. $ • Spain as the one of the biggest 30% 183.9 mill. $ exporters of the fresh raspberry 25% is also growing fast in frozen 20% 43.0 mill. $ 15% raspberry export 41.3 mill. $ Macedonia Kosovo 10% 614.5 thsd. $ 12.4 mill. $ 227.7 thsd. $ 5% 9.6 thsd. $ Average World share World Average 0% B&H -5% 20.1 mill. $ 21.8 mill. $ 11.2 mill. $ -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% Average growth in relation with World
Serbia B&H Kosovo CEFTA NMS EU15 Poland Spain Netherlands Chile Albania Macedonia Source: UN Comtrade Global trade – Fresh raspberry
Top 20 exporters 2011 - 2016 Top 10 exporters in 2016 Main trends: 300 1,046 Mexico • Spain is main player at the EU fresh 250 299 Spain 200 140 USA raspberry market. Spanish 150 108 Portugal 100 85 Morocco companies are also producing in
Million dollarsMillion 50 84 Netherlands
749 mil. $ mil.749 North Africa countries 0 30 Poland • Netherland transferred the
20 Guatemala
Italy
USA
Chile
Spain Serbia
France Germany Ireland
Austria 19 Poland
Mexico raspberry in greenhouse crop and
Canada
Belgium
Portugal
Morocco Denmark
Germany 17 Belgium
Guatemala Netherlands South Africa South earning over 70 million USD 1500 1000 500 0 United Kingdom United Million USD • Even with small average export CEFTA CIS NMS EU15 Rest of the World Source: UN Comtrade value the growth of export of fresh Source: Systematization of authors raspberries from BiH is important Export trend for selected countries and country groups (average) in relation to world average growth in period 2011 - 2016 • In last 15 years the quantity of fresh 20% raspberries that were traded in the 174.3 mill. $ 246.4 mill. $ 15% world doubled, while the value of 22.2 mill. $ 73.8 mill. $ trade increased almost two and a 10% 7.7 mill. $ 27.5 mill. $ Kosovo half times. World raspberry trade is B&H 947.6 thsd. $ 5% increasing - an average of about 6.7 mill. $ 30.2 mill. $ 334.4 thsd. $ 17.5 mill. $ 0% 60% of raspberries goes to the Macedonia Serbia international market and in the last
419.9 thsd. $ 2.5 mill. $ 1.5 mill. $ 7.7 mill. $ -5% Average World share World Average -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110% 130% 150% 10 years has been an upward trend. Average growth in relation with World Expectations are that it will increase Serbia B&H Kosovo CEFTA NMS trade in the coming years, primarily EU15 Poland USA Spain France with fresh raspberries. Netherlands Belgium Chile Macedonia Germany
Source: UN Comtrade Global trade – Frozen strawberry Top 20 exporters Main trends: 150 • Export trend of main players on 100 the market is slowing down
50 lagging after the world average Million Million dollars 0 in the past five years. • Poland is important player at the frozen strawberry market and is most competitive at EU CEFTA CIS NMS EU15 Rest of the World market. Mexico and China Source: Systematization of authors export is not influencing offer at Export trend for selected countries relation with World average for period 2011-2016 EU. 20% 147.2 mill. $ 154.9 mill. $ 15% Macedonia 50.8 mill. $ 172.9 thsd. $ 10% 41.7 mill. $ 38.9 mill. $ 36.8 mill. $ 5% Kosovo 22.3 mill. $ 10.2 thsd. $ Serbia 11.2 mill. $ 0% 5.7 mill. $ Average World share World Average B&H 14.3 mill. $ 11.2 mill. $ 1.3 mill. $ 854.9 thsd. $ -5% -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% Average growth in relation with World Serbia B&H China Kosovo CEFTA NMS EU15 Poland USA Spain Source: UN Comtrade Global trade – Fresh strawberry
Top 20 exporters Main trends: 800 • Spain is main player at the 600 400 strawberry fresh market with 200 export reaching 700 million
0 euros. However, in Spain Million Million dollars strawberries are decreasing replaced by the blueberries and
CEFTA CIS NMS EU15 Rest of the World raspberries. This trend started Source: Systematization of authors since 2014 and it was motivated Export trend for selected countries with World average by a number of bad seasons in for period 2011-2016 35% a row. The reason for the bad 692.1 mill. $ 30% season were the low prices 25% caused by the overproduction. 20% 438.2 mill. $ • Serbia is increasing the export 15% 87.2 mill. $ 230.9 mill. $ using the opportunity of 43.0 mill. $ 10% Macedonia 28.7 mill. $ 1.8 mill. $ absence the EU strawberry at 5% 1.5 mill. $ 27.6 mill. $
Average World share World Average the Russian market. 0% 9.1 mill. $ 2.7 mill. $ B&H -5% 450.1 thsd. $ -140% -120% -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Average growth in relation with World Serbia B&H CEFTA NMS EU15 Poland USA Spain Italy Netherlands Macedonia Turkey
Source: UN Comtrade Distribution of soft fruit export value in the WB The marketing and value of export of Value of export raspberry is dominant region 400 • The value of raspberry export 300 200 in 4 of 5 analyzed countries is
Million USD Million 100 prevailing among the other soft 0 fruits. The main driver for 2015 2016 2015 2016 dominance of raspberry were Serbia 2015 2016 BiH 2015 2016 the period of relatively high Kosovo 2015 Macedonia 2016 export prices at period 2012 – Albania 2016 which also stimulated the Raspberries Strawberries Blueberries and other berries higher raspberry purchase prices. Export distribution
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 2 0% 2015 2016 1 2015 2016 Serbia 2015 2016 BiH 2015 2016 0 Kosovo 2015 Macedonia 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Albania Raspberry Strawberry Raspberries Strawberries Blueberries and other berries Comparison of producer price of strawberry and Source: UN Comtrade and Ministry of Agriculture Kosovo raspberry in Kosovo Frozen raspberry trade trends Positive balance in analysed countries Trade balance: Serbia 2006-2016 Trade balance: Kosovo 2010-2016 400,000 1.2 7,000 • The value of raspberry export 350,000 1 6,000 from Serbia increased for over 300,000 . USD 5,000 50% in USD currency from 2012
0.8 Thsd 250,000 4,000 200,000 0.6 to 2015 while in 2016 followed 3,000
Thsd.USD 150,000 0.4 the decline as the global and 100,000 2,000 0.2 EU trends. 50,000 1,000 0 0 0 • The value of export from BiH
2011 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2016 2010 2012 2013 2015
2014
2007
2006 2009 2008 tripled from 2012 to 2016.
Trade balance Import Export Trade balance Export Import • The export value of Kosovo
Source: UN Comtrade Source: UN Comtrade raspberries is rapidly growing with a pace of around 1,000 % a Trade balance: BiH 2006-2016 Trade balance: North Macedonia 2006-2016 year. In 2016. Kosovo exported 45,000 1200 8 million USD worth of 40,000
. . USD 1000 35,000 raspberries, 28.7 times more
30,000 Thsd 800 than in 2011. 25,000 600 20,000 • North Macedonia stabilized on Thsd.USD 15,000 400 highest export in a decade, 10,000 200 5,000 after few years of big 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 fluctuations on the export side 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -200 of trade. Trade balance Export Import Trade balance Import Export
Source: UN Comtrade Source: UN Comtrade Export destinations– frozen raspberry
Main destinations for frozen raspberry is EU15, followed by CEFTA countries • Bosnia and Herzegovina is exporting EU15 countries like Sweden, Germany, Austria and Belgium. More then 36% of export is to Serbia. • More than 80% of Serbia’s frozen raspberries ends on EU15 markets • Kosovo exports mainly in EU 15 Source: UN Comtrade and CEFTA countries (Serbia and North Macedonia) • North Macedonia exports almost half of it’s modest quantity of frozen raspberries to Serbia Fresh raspberry trade trends Positive balance in analysed countries Trade balance: Serbia 2006-2016 Trade balance: Kosovo 2006-2016 • Serbia is showing cyclic trade 20,000 2,500 trends with a few years of high
15,000 2,000 and low export. Thsd. USD Thsd. 1,500 • Kosovo has a high growth trend 10,000 1,000 Thsd.USD passing BiH in value of export in 5,000 500 recent years • BiH is showing slow decline in 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 export following high growth
Import Export Trade balance Import Export Trade balance from year 2010
Source: UN Comtrade Source: UN Comtrade • North Macedonian export is less then 500 thousand USD Trade balance: BiH 2006-2016 Trade balance: North Macedonia 2006-2016 with exception of 2011 when 800 2,000 they exported more than 1.5 700 600 1,500 million dollars of fresh
500 USD Thsd. raspberry to Austria. 400 1,000 300
Thsd.USD 200 500 100 0 0 -100 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -500
Export Import Trade balance Import Export Trade balance
Source: UN Comtrade Source: UN Comtrade CEFTA trade – frozen raspberry Situation in CEFTA is changing in recent years 2011 2016 Five years ago Serbia was almost Albania Albania the only player on international Croatia Croatia market among CEFTA countries. Serbia Serbia Over the years other countries, Kosovo Kosovo mostly BiH and also Kosovo is B&H B&H gaining on market share. Montenegro Montenegro
Export distribution among CEFTA countries
Macedonia Montenegro B&H Kosovo Serbia Croatia 2011 2012 2013 Albania 2014 2015 2016 Source: UN Comtrade, Eurostat, Kosovo Ministry of Agriculture CEFTA trade – fresh raspberry Situation in CEFTA is changing in recent years 2011 2015* • Serbia is still dominant exporter in the region, BiH is becoming
Croatia Croatia important player while Kosovo Serbia Serbia export is growing fast B&H B&H • In 2011 North Macedonia Macedonia Macedonia exported 20% of fresh raspberries, but in on 2015 Serbia is exporting 97% of fresh Export distribution among CEFTA countries** raspberries from the CEFTA region.
Macedonia Montenegro
B&H
Serbia * Due to lack of data for 2016, previous year was used in 2011 2012 order to get more realistic picture. 2013 Croatia ** 2016 data missing for North Macedonia and Croatia. 2014 2015 Indications are that North Macedonian export is insignificant in 2016. Source: UN Comtrade, Eurostat 2016 EU trade – frozen and fresh raspberry Big importer, but also exporter • EU 15 import is about 1.5 billion USD EU 15 trade frozen EU 15 trade fresh is divided on import of frozen 800 4 800 9 raspberries valued which had growth 8 700 3.5 700 from 526 Million USD in 2012 to about 600 3 600 7
6 700 millions in 2013, 2014 and 2015 Million USD Million 500 2.5 USD Million 500 5 and dropped in 2016 at 588 millions.
400 2 400 $/kg 4 $/kg The average import unit value were 300 1.5 300 3 200 1 200 on average 3 USD/kg and in 2016 still 2 3.25 USD/kg. 100 0.5 100 1 0 0 0 0 • The value of import of fresh 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 raspberries doubled from 350 to 700
EU 15 export price EU 15 import price EU 15 export price EU 15 import price million USD at 2011 – 2015, but also dropped at 2016 for 50 million USD. EU 15 export value EU 15 import value EU 15 export value EU 15 import value The average import unit value is over NMS trade frozen NMS trade fresh 7 USD/kg reaching in 2012 – 2014 8 USD/kg. 300 3.5 40 10 250 3 • The NMS export value had growth 8 2.5 30 trend up to 2014 and then the export 200 6 Million USD Million 2 reached the maximum at 276 million
150 USD Million 20 $/kg 1.5 4 $/kg USD. However, then the decline stated 100 1 10 and in 2016 the export was 196 Million 2 50 0.5 USD. Export of fresh raspberries in EU 0 0 0 0 NMS which had growth trend p to 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2015 decreased in 2016. NMS import price NMS export price NMS import price NMS export price Source: UN NMSComtrade import value NMS export value NMS import value NMS export value Country specific import – fresh raspberry
Austria Slovenia EU countries have significant share in Serbian $/kg $/kg and BiH export 15 10 5 0 25 20 15 10 5 0
Serbia Spain • Russia is the only country Spain B&H Poland Austria importing outside of the Europe Germany Italy (counter season) Macedo… Serbia Hungary Mexico Italy Germany Netherl… Other… Morocco Croatia France Morocco
- 1,000 2,000 3,000 - 5 10 15 20 Tons Tons Import quantity Export price Series1 Series2
Source: UN Comtrade Germany Russian Federation $/kg $/kg 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 20 15 10 5 0
Poland Mexico Spain Belarus Portugal Kazakhstan Serbia Morocco Mexico Netherlands Netherl… Poland Morocco USA USA Portugal Italy Serbia Belgium Spain
- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 - 200 400 600 800 Tons Tons Series1 Series2 Series1 Series2 Country specific import – frozen raspberry
Serbia Sweden Poland and Serbia dominant suppliers $/kg $/kg 4 3 2 1 0 5 4 3 2 1 0 • Besides in Serbia, BiH is B&H Poland significant supplier of frozen Poland Serbia Germany B&H raspberries to Sweden Bulgaria Belgium • Germany imports mostly from Monten… Germany Austria Hungary Poland and Serbia. BiH isn’t Macedo… Netherlands among top 10 suppliers. China Norway Belgium China • Serbia is also significant supplier France United… of frozen raspberry to Russian - 1,000 2,000 3,000 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 market Tons Tons Import quantity Export price Series1 Series2
Source: UN Comtrade Germany Russian Federation $/kg $/kg 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 4 3 2 1 0
Poland Poland Serbia China Belgium Belarus Chile Serbia Netherl… Chile China Ukraine Austria Belgium Bulgaria San Marino Czechia France Ukraine Netherlands
- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Tons Tons Series1 Series2 Series1 Series2 CEFTA trade – fresh and frozen strawberry
CEFTA trade frozen • Serbia, although the CEFTA trade fresh 10 5 biggest exporter, is 25 6 growing slower than 5 8 4 CEFTA average 20 4
Million USD Million 6 3 15 • CEFTA is net USD Million
3 Price exporter for both Price 4 2 10 fresh and frozen 2 2 1 strawberry 5 1
0 0 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Export price Import price Export value Import value Export price Import price Export value Import value
Export trend for selected countries relation with CEFTA Export trend for selected countries relation with average for period 2011-2016 CEFTA average for period 2011-2016
100% Serbia 100% Serbia 80% 5.7 mill. $ 80% 9.1 mill. $ Croatia 60% 60% Croatia Macedonia B&H Montenegro 67.9 thsd. $ 40% 40% 353.2 thsd. $ B&H 172.9 thsd. $ 854.9 thsd. $ 115.9 thsd. $ Albania 450.1 thsd. $ 20% 20% Macedonia 203.2 thsd. $ 1.5 mill. $
0% 0% Montenegro Average CEFTA share CEFTA Average Average CEFTA share CEFTA Average Albania 2.7 thsd. $ -20% 1.1 thsd. $ -20% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% -300% -200% -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% Average growth in relation with CEFTA Average growth in relation with CEFTA
Albania Croatia Serbia Kosovo B&H Montenegro Macedonia Source: UN Comtrade Albania Croatia Serbia B&H Montenegro Macedonia CEFTA trade – fresh strawberries
Export structure of CEFTA countries Serbia is dominant fresh strawberry trade player in CEFTA region 100% 90% • Export of strawberries from 80% Croatia declined after joining 70% the EU. 60% • North Macedonian export 50% 40% boosted in 2015 but since it was 30% to Belorussia, it might have 20% import origin. 10% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Albania Croatia Serbia Kosovo B&H Montenegro Macedonia
2011 2016
Albania Albania Croatia Croatia Serbia Serbia Kosovo Kosovo B&H B&H Montenegro Montenegro Macedonia
Source: UN Comtrade CEFTA trade – frozen strawberries
Export structure of CEFTA countries Serbia dominate the market. BiH declining 100% • Serbia exports more than 90% 90% of frozen strawberries in CEFTA. 80% • BiH reached nearly 20% of 70% 60% CEFTA share in 2014, but export 50% is being declining since. BiH 40% ended on less than 7% share in 30% 2016 20% 10% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Albania Croatia Serbia Kosovo B&H Montenegro Macedonia
2011 2016
Albania Albania Croatia Croatia Serbia Serbia Kosovo Kosovo B&H B&H Montenegro Montenegro Macedonia Macedonia
Source: UN Comtrade Trade balance – frozen strawberry Export decline except for Serbia Strawberry fresh trade balance: North Macedonia 2006-2016 Strawberry frozen trade balance: Serbia 2011-2016 • Serbia has positive trade 350 8 balance on export of 300 strawberries. Significant growth 6 250
200 in export of fresh strawberries, ThousandUSD Million USD Million 4 150 while growth in trade balance 100 of frozen strawberries is caused 2 50 more by lower import. 0 0 • BiH export of frozen 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 strawberries is rapidly slowing Export Import Trade balance Export Import Trade balance down, while import has risen in
Source: UN Comtrade 2016. Strawberry fresh trade balance: Kosovo 2006-2016 • BiH is net importer of fresh Strawberry frozen trade balance: BiH 2006-2016 40 strawberries 2 30 • North Macedonia started 1.5 20 importing frozen strawberries,
10 while export is rapidly declining ThousandUSD Million USD Million 1 0 • Kosovo had sporadic export but -10 0.5 is mostly net importer of frozen -20 strawberries 0 -30 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Export Import Trade balance Export Import Trade balance Trade balance – fresh strawberry Export decline except for Serbia Strawberry fresh trade balance: Serbia 2006-2016 Strawberry fresh trade balance: North Macedonia 2006-2016 • Serbia is increasing the export 20 500 of fresh strawberries and in 400 2016 reached almost 20 million 15 300 200 dollars. Million USD Million 10 ThousandUSD 100 • BiH export of fresh strawberries 0 is not significant. BiH is net 5 -100 importer of fresh strawberries 0 -200 • North Macedonia had increase 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 in export mostly to Russia and Export Import Trade balance Export Import Trade balance Belarus following the sanctions
Source: UN Comtrade between Russia and EU, but in Strawberry fresh trade balance: BiH 2006-2016 Strawberry fresh trade balance: Kosovo 2006-2016 2016 is back where it was before 2.5 400 these sanctions 2 300 • Kosovo is net importer of fresh 1.5 200 strawberry
Million Million USD 100 1 ThousandUSD 0 0.5 -100 0 -200 -0.5 -300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Export Import Trade balance Export Import Trade balance Global export and import trends - blueberry
Demand for blueberry is mostly in the America and the EU
Export trend for selected countries in relation with World Top 20 World importers for period 2011-2016 average for period 2011-2016 $/kg 20 15 10 5 0 40% USA 35% United Kingdom 568.4 mill. $ Canada 30% Netherlands 25% Germany Norway 20% China Spain 144.7 mill. $ 159.8 mill. $ 15% Belgium 162.7 mill. $ 76.3 mill. $ 10% China, Hong Kong SAR B&H Switzerland 27.3 mill. $ Average World share World Average 5% 13.8 mill. $ 318.5 thsd. $ 49.0 mill. $ France 1.3 mill. $ Japan 0% Italy 21.3 mill. $ Denmark -5% 513.8 thsd. $ 8.5 mill. $ 5.0 mill. $ Australia -10% Austria -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Sweden Singapore Average growth in relation with World Lithuania Serbia B&H CEFTA NMS EU15 Poland USA Spain Italy France 0 500 1000 1500 Netherlands Chile Argentina Germany Million USD Source: UN Comtrade Source: UN Comtrade EU trade - blueberry
World trade Blueberry trade is taking place outside 2,500 5.8 Europe 5.6 $/kg • EU 15 import value increased 2,000 5.4 from 400 to 700 million USD.
Million Million USD 1,500 5.2 Import price in last 3 years were 5 between 7 and 8 euros. 1,000 4.8 • EU NMS import doubled at the 4.6 500 4.4 same period increasing from 20 0 4.2 to 45 million USD and prices 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 were lower than in EU 15. Price Value • NMS export price increased from 30 to 70 million USD. NMS trade EU 15 trade 100 8 800 7.5
80 6 600 7 60
4 400 6.5
Million Million USD Million USD $/kg 40 $/kg 20 2 200 6 0 0 0 5.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NMS import price NMS export price EU 15 import price EU 15 export price NMS import value NMS export value EU 15 import value EU 15 export value Source: UN Comtrade EU average trade balance - blueberry
European Union countries average trade balance for period 2011-2016 EU market is very limited 250 • There are three big importers in
200 the EU. Germany, Netherlands and UK are the only ones with Million USD Million 150 yearly import of over 50 million 100 USD.
50 • Netherlands is big exporter, second in the EU, after Spain. 0 • Poland is the third exporter in -50 the EU and country with a
-100 second best trade balance, again after Spain. -150
-200
-250
Italy
Spain
Malta
Latvia
France
Ireland
Austria
Cyprus
Poland
Greece
Estonia
Finland
Czechia
Sweden
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Belgium
Slovenia
Portugal
Hungary
Romania
Lithuania
Denmark
Germany
Netherlands
Luxembourg United KingdomUnited
NMS EU15 Export Import Trade balance
Source: UN Comtrade WB trade - blueberry
Trade balance BiH Trade balance Kosovo BiH exports more than two thirds of its blueberries to only two countries 600 2,500 500 2,000 • After a record export of more 400 1,500 than 550 thousand USD in 2014, Thousands BiH blueberry is on a steep
300 1,000 ThousandUSD 200 decline. In 2016 BiH hit record 500 100 low when total value of export 0 dropped under 100 thousand 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 USD for the first time in a Export Import Trade balance Export Import Trade balance decade. • Two thirds of Bosnian blueberries ends on Slovenian Trade balance Serbia Trade balance North Macedonia and Serbian markets. 2,000 1,500 • After big export growth, North Macedonian trade of 1,500 1,000 blueberries is almost non
1,000 existant.
ThousandUSD ThousandUSD 500 500
0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Export Import Trade balance Export Import Trade balance
Source: UN Comtrade BIH and North Macedonia trade - blueberry
BiH exporting destinations for period 2011-2016 Blueberry from the region are having limited market. Slovenia • North Macedonia exports more Serbia than 80% to only two countries, Germany While BiH supplies four Belarus countries with the same Croatia percentage of its blueberries Austria Turkey Czechia
North Macedonia exporting destinations for period 2011-2016
Austria Serbia Belarus Germany Poland Russian Federation Slovenia Montenegro Netherlands
Source: UN Comtrade Top import destinations of selected countries - blueberry
Price is diverse and depends on the supplier • All countries import mostly from Chile and Spain. • Argentinian blueberries are the most expensive.
United Kingdom Netherlands Germany Thousand tons Thousand tons Thousand tons 0 2 4 6 0 2 4 6 0 1 2 3 4
Chile Chile Spain
Spain Spain Chile
Netherlands Germany Netherlands
Poland Greece Poland
Argentina Argentina Argentina France South Africa Poland Morocco Germany Belgium Romania Morocco USA Uruguay USA Uruguay Italy France Canada 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 15,000 $/t 10,000 $/t 5,000 $/t 0 $/t 15,000 $/t 10,000 $/t 5,000 $/t 0 $/t $/t Source: UN Comtrade Source: UN Comtrade Source: UN Comtrade BiH export and competition of main import destinations
Three quarters of blueberries BiH exports to closest neighbours, While North Macedonian export is more diverse • Serbia, Slovenia and Croatia are main destinations for BiH blueberries. BiH is also one of main suppliers for these countries. • For it’s other top destinations BiH is either not in their top 10 suppliers or is one of the most expensive suppliers (Turkey). • North Macedonia exports only 22% to neighboring countries. The rest of North Macedonian blueberries goes mostly to the EU
Slovenia import Serbia import $/kg $/kg 20 15 10 5 0 15 10 5 0
Austria Montenegro
Serbia B&H
Spain Croatia
Chile Spain
Romania Costa Rica
- 20 40 60 - 20 40 60 80 100 Import quantity Export price Tons Tons
Germany import Russia import Turkey import $/kg $/kg $/kg 15 10 5 0 15 10 5 0 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Spain Belarus USA Chile Chile Canada Netherlands Poland Chile Poland Spain Peru Argentina Morocco Spain Morocco Peru Morocco France Argentina Netherlands Peru Mexico B&H Romania Serbia Poland Uruguay Netherlands Argentina
- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 - 100 200 300 400 - 20 40 60 80 100 Source: UN Comtrade Tons Tons Tons WB trade trends - Raspberry
Current trends
Serbia, BiH, Berry sector in Serbia, BiH and Kosovo is focused on processed, frozen product export. CEFTA trade is based on frozen raspberries export. Trade value had Kosovo growing trend from 2012 to 2015 reaching 350 million USD and dropped in 2016. Export of fresh raspberries from the region had promising trend up to 2014 and then declined, both in value and prices.
BiH, Kosovo Value of export from BiH tripled from 2012 to 2016. Export value of Kosovo raspberries is rapidly growing: Kosovo exported 550 thousand USD worth of raspberries, almost 7 times more than in 2011. Bosna and Herzegovina main export destinations are EU 15 where BiH exports 46 % and Serbia where BiH is selling 36% of exported value.
Serbia 90-95% of raspberry production is exported, and again majority is exported as frozen (about 95%). Export destination is European Union (Germany, France, Belgium, Holland, Great Britain, Austria, Italy) and the United States. Germany and France are the largest buyers of Serbian raspberries and exports to these two countries account for over 50% of total exports. The biggest customers of fresh raspberries are Austria, Germany and Italy, and over 90% of raspberries are exported to these three countries
Serbia There are over 170 business entities exporting the raspberries, of which four are covering 25-30% of total exports, while the first eight make 37-44% of total exports. According to 2015 – 2017 data main raspberry exporter is company "Altiva" Ltd. Belgrade, whose main activity is the production of fruit juices. This company exports mainly to Germany and France and its exports accounted for about 10% of total raspberries in observed period. Among the first four exporters are also "Stanić" doo from Arilje, Sirogojno Company Ltd. from Sirogojno and "Crops & Partners" Ltd. from Belgrade which individual shares in exports range between 4% and 7%.
Serbia, BiH, The significant part of the frozen product from BiH, Kosovo and North Macedonia is sold via Serbian companies – imported to Serbia nd than reexported Kosovo to EU. The four Serbian importers together constituting about 50% of imports by quantity and value. The importers vary form year to year. In 2017 the biggest importer were company "Fru com plus" from Varvarin and among the four leading importers in the past three years are also "Crops & Partners from Belgrade (leading importer in 2015 and 2016), "Sirogojno Company2" from Sirogojno, "Lukafood" doo from Umcara, "DBR Proizvodnja" from Belgrade and "Stanić" from Arilje. Fruit planting material trade Fruit seedlings export is constantly growing Top 20 exporters • Bearing in mind the major 90 problem in berry fruit sector is World export quality of planting material on 80 600 one hand and on other hand Million USD Million 500 70 successful Netherland 400 investments and partnership in 60 USD Million 300 two fruit planting material 200 nurseries in Serbia (Seveplant 50 100 doo and Fleunerra doo) study 0 40 considered that example of fruit planting material example can 30 be the example for the berry sector in the region. 20 • Serbia is the World’s 10th
10 exporter of fruit seedlings. Among first ten exporters, 0 besides Serbia, USA and Canada are the only country outside EU.
2005-2010 2011-2016 Source: UN Comtrade Where does Serbia exports planting material? Fruit planting material export is constantly Top 20 importers from Serbia growing
Russian Federation • More then 40% of Serbian TFYR of Macedonia 15 planting material ends on Ukraine Russian market Bosnia Herzegovina 10 Netherlands • Other important markets are in Poland USD Million the region – BiH and North 5 Kazakhstan Macedonia as well as CIS - Montenegro 0 Ukraine Germany 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Bulgaria Rep. of Moldova Structure of Serbian export Croatia 100% United Kingdom 80% Georgia Kyrgyzstan 60%
Hungary 40% Czech Rep. 20% Romania Italy 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Morocco CEFTA EU Russia Others Others
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Million USD Source: UN Comtrade Competition at export markets…
Top 20 exporters to Russia Exporters to North Macedonia Top 20 exporters to BiH Italy Serbia Serbia Serbia Poland Italy Germany Italy Netherlands Greece Poland Ukraine Turkey Latvia Bulgaria France Switzerland Rep. of… Ukraine Hungary Hungary France Greece Slovenia Austria Belarus Austria Albania Kazakhstan Belgium Croatia Finland Netherlan… Germany Turkey Bosnia… Azerbaijan USA Georgia Poland Spain Czech Rep. Germany USA Others Hungary Others
0 5000000 10000000 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000
100% 100% 100%
80% 80% 80%
60% Others 60% Others 60% Others 40% EU 40% EU 40% EU CEFTA 20% 20% CEFTA 20% CEFTA
0% 0% 0%
2011
2011
2012 2015 2010 2013 2016
2014
2010 2012 2013 2015 2016
2014
2007
2009 2005 2006 2008
2007
2006 2008 2009
2011
2013 2015 2010 2012 2016
2014
2007
2006 2008 2009 Source: UN Comtrade Price trends Export price trends compared to importer prices 2015 – 2017 frozen raspberry BiH and Serbian prices significantly higher than Polish • Export prices are showing the period of higher prices started from 2012 harvest season and dropped starting from November 2015. • Export prices from Serbia and BiH are following each other. Poland price competitiveness are based on lower costs of production and the fact that harvest is always after the harvest in Serbia (and BiH), the countries which are first at the market, thus establishing the actual season prices.
Export prices Import prices 4.5 4.5
4 4 EUR/kg 3.5 3.5
3 3
2.5 2.5
2 2
1.5 1.5
1 1
0.5 0.5
0 0
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul
Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct
Apr May May May May May May May May Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Poland BiH Serbia Germany France Austria Source: ITC Trade Map Source: ITC Trade Map Export price trends compared to importer prices 2015 – 2017 frozen raspberry
Export prices* Import prices 4.5 4.5
EUR/kg 4 4
3.5 3.5
3 3
2.5 2.5
2 2
1.5 1.5
1 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep
2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017
Poland BiH Serbia Kosovo Macedonia Germany France Austria Source: ITC Trade Map Source: ITC Trade Map * No monthly data for Kosovo. Average yearly data on the graph Export and farmgate price comparison
The comparison of average export price, average purchase price are showing that at period before 2012 producers get about 50% of the export price, but at period 2012 – 2016 – producers benefited from the higher market prices getting in Serbia 60 – 70% from the export price, in BiH about 66- 67% in 2013 to 2015 and in 2016 59%. Poland is price competitive raspberry producer with increasing export unit value trend. Producers in Poland are getting lower purchase prices then in BiH, Serbia and Kosovo but the ratio of purchase price in export unit value price is higher. Prices in Euros 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 BiH Farmgate 0.90 0.99 1.51 1.51 1.66 1.55 % of export price producer gets Export UV 1.77 1.73 2.22 2.30 2.49 2.61 90% % of export price producer gets 51% 57% 68% 66% 67% 59% 80% Kosovo farmgate 1.20 1.30 1.57 1.40 1.87 1.28 Export UV 2.05 2.55 2.90 2.40 2.85 1.70 70% % of export price producer gets 59% 51% 54% 58% 66% 75% 60% Serbia Farmgate 0.80 1.10 1.62 1.29 1.60 1.58 50% Export UV 1.58 1.73 2.26 2.30 2.39 2.47 % of export price producer gets 51% 63% 72% 56% 67% 64% 40% Poland Farmgate price (Selling price) 0.63 0.69 0.89 1.14 1.21 1.40 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Export UV 1.27 1.20 1.22 1.51 1.70 1.73 BiH Kosovo Serbia Poland % of export price producer gets 50% 57% 73% 75% 71% 81% 3.50 € 3.00 € 2.50 € 2.00 € 1.50 € 1.00 € 0.50 € 0.00 € 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
BiH Kosovo Serbia Poland Export price Price paid to producer Source: UN Comtrade, Ministries of Agriculture, Market data Current trends - prices
Current trends
Serbia In 2012 there was a rise of frozen raspberry price and export begins to grow and in 2016 reach a 2.57 €/kg. in the observed period is slightly above the average export price of raspberries in 2016. In 2017, there was a decline in the average export price of raspberries. The average export price of fresh raspberries is lower by 31% and frozen raspberries by 14% compared to 2016, which resulted in the average export price of raspberries in 2017 was 2.18 EUR / kg, which is 15% lower than in the previous year.
BiH Average export price of frozen raspberries is following the Serbian price even in 2016 it was over the Serbian average price.
Kosovo Frozen product from Kosovo is price competitive following the Polish price since the product and production model is same as in Poland.
Serbia The average import price of raspberries in the first ten months of 2017 amounted to 1.59 EUR / kg. Average import price of raspberries originating in Bosnia and Herzegovina, from which contributes 75% of imports, amounted to 1.53 euros / kg. Customs Administration
Serbia Main 15 exporters: Altiva doo Beograd, Crops & Partners Ltd. Belgrade, Lukowa doo Belgrade, Sirogojno Company doo Sirogojno, YUBE doo Požega, Elixir Food doo Šabac, Stanić doo Arilje, Z.A. Fruit doo Valjevo and Agropartner doo Lučani, Frucom Food doo Arilje, IQF doo Požega, ITN Group doo Belgrade (Zemun), Master Fruits (Master Fruits2) Ltd. Belgrade (Borca), Mondi Lamex Ltd. Vrdila (Kraljevo) and Zadrugar doo Ljubovija. Two companies (Altiva and IQF) do not deal with the purchase of raspberries, but exclusively deal with the wholesale of deep-frozen raspberries. Out of the aforementioned 13 companies participated with 50.8% (quantity) and 53.4% (value) in the total export of raspberries in 2016, ie with 50.1% (quantity) and 55.1% (value) in the first ten months in 2017. If the total quantities purchased by the companies included in the sample are compared with the official statistics on the annual raspberry production, the conclusion is drawn that 13 participants in the sample market are purchasing about 45% of the total quantities produced.
Serbia Export price shown in the customs declaration also includes the price of packaging and the price of transport. Namely, most goods are exported in printed bags of 500, 650 or 750 grams net, or in printed boxes of 300 and 500 grams net, and go directly to retail systems. The price of packaging is a significant factor here, including bags and a transport box, and can range from 10-11 cents per kg, to up to 20 cents per box of 300 grams or plastic containers for Meeker. The price of the transport goes from the minimum 8 cents to 17 cents per kg. Competitiveness index – raspberry
0.9 Serbia and BiH among most competitive countries 0.8 • Competitiveness index based on analysis of the 27 indicators 0.7 – in comparison to EU, CIS and CEFTA competitors – is showing 0.6 that Serbia and BIH are among
0.5 10 most competitive producers of raspberry among analyzed
0.4 competitors. Shift to fresh market secured Spain to be the 0.3 most competitive raspberry producer at period 2011 – 2016. 0.2
0.1
0
Iran
Italy
B&H
Spain
Malta
China
Latvia
Serbia
France
Ireland
Austria
Cyprus
Poland
Greece
Estonia
Finland
Croatia Belarus
Albania
Ukraine
Sweden
Georgia
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Belgium
Slovenia
Armenia
Portugal
Hungary
Romania
Moldova
Lithuania
Tajikistan
Denmark
Germany
Azerbaijan
Kyrgyzstan
Uzbekistan
Macedonia
Kazakhstan
Czech Rep. Czech
Netherlands
Montenegro
Luxembourg
Turkmenistan
United Kingdom United Russian Federation Russian
CEFTA SC CIS NMS EU15
Source: SEEDEV Competitiveness study 2017 Competitiveness index – Serbia
Competitiveness index of Serbia (average World, CEFTA, EU) 0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Fruits Vegetables Cereals Industrial crops Animal products Wine Source: SEEDEV Competitiveness study 2017 Competitiveness index – BiH
Competitiveness index of Bosnia and Herzegovina (average World, CEFTA, EU) 0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Fruits Vegetables Cereals Industrial crops Animal products Live animals Wine Source: SEEDEV Competitiveness study 2017 Opportunities at third markets Fresh raspberry at third markets
Import growth in relation to the World and the World share (2011-2016) Opportunities 3.00% • The import of fresh raspberries
2.50% increasing in Gulf region at period 36.6 mill. $ 2011 – 2016 by the 93 pp faster 2.00% than world average growth and 1.50% reached in 2016 almost 8 million 1.00% 8.2 mill. $ euros. 2.3 mill. $ 4.4 mill. $
0.50% 2.2 mill. $ • The MENA and Turkey are Average World share World Average 0.00% 56.0 thsd. $ became consumers of fresh 224.9 thsd. $ raspberries. -0.50% • Import to Russia decreased after -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Average growth in relation to the World 2014 – EU ban but the opportunity for this market is CIS MENA Gulf Russia Turkey NMS EU15 existing.
Import Import growth (2010=1) 15 50 800
40 600 10 30
400 Million USD Million
5 20 Turkey 10 200 0 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CIS MENA Gulf Russia Turkey CIS MENA Gulf Russia World Turkey Fresh raspberry at third markets
CIS MENA Opportunities $/kg $/kg 25 20 15 10 5 0 25 20 15 10 5 0 • Netherlands is besides the USA Mexico USA Netherl… Netherlands and Mexico one of the major Kyrgyzst… Mexico supplier of the CIS, MENA, Gulf, Poland Spain USA Chile Russia and Turkey markets. Moldova Portugal Morocco Argentina Israel United Kingdom Lithuania Tunisia Turkey Peru
0 50 100 150 200 250 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Quantity exported Export price Quantity exported Export price Tons Tons
Gulf Russia Turkey $/kg $/kg $/kg 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 20 15 10 5 0 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5 4.9 4.8
USA Mexico Mexico Netherlands Netherlands Netherla… Mexico USA United… Spain Portugal Portugal Chile Spain Belgium Portugal Belgium Spain Argentina Poland Morocco United Kingdom Kazakhstan Guatem… Tunisia Morocco Chile Peru Belarus Guam
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 0 5 10 15 20 25 Quantity exported Export price Quantity exported Export price Quantity exported Export price Tons Tons Tons Frozen raspberry at third markets
Import growth in relation to the World and the World share (2011-2016) Opportunities 6.00% • Russia and CIS region are 5.00% importers of the frozen 43.2 mill. $ 4.00% raspberry. Also Turkey in last 2
3.00% years is importing over 4 million
2.00% 13.1 mill. $ $ of frozen raspberries.
1.00% 338.2 thsd. $ 357.33.8 thsd. mill. $ $ Average World share World Average 2.8 mill. $ 0.00% 827.0 thsd. $ -1.00% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Average growth in relation to the World
CIS MENA Gulf Russia Turkey NMS EU15
Import 20 Import growth (2010=1)
15 15
Million USD Million 10 10
5 5
0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CIS MENA Gulf Russia Turkey CIS MENA Gulf Russia Turkey World Frozen raspberry at third markets
CIS MENA Turkey $/kg $/kg $/kg 5 4 3 2 1 0 10 8 6 4 2 0 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0
China Poland Bosnia… Poland China France Russian… Serbia TFYR of… Serbia France Serbia Chile Poland Ukraine Uzbekistan Belgium San Marino Romania Germany United Kingdom Netherla… Turkey Bulgaria India Uzbekistan Hungary 0 200 400 600 800 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 Quantity exported Export price Quantity exported Export price Quantity exported Export price Tons Tons Tons
Gulf Russia $/kg $/kg 25 20 15 10 5 0 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0
France Poland Netherlands China Serbia Serbia Belarus Chile Ukraine Poland Chile United Kingdom Netherlands India Belgium Iran France Belgium Mexico
0 100 200 300 400 500 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Quantity exported Export price Quantity exported Export price Tons Tons Fresh strawberry at third markets
Import growth in relation to the World and the World share (2011-2016) Opportunities
4.50% 90.0 mill. $ • Before the EU ban, Russia 4.00% 3.50% import market reached over 79.7 mill. $ 3.00% 120million $ and after that 2.50% 2.00% decreased at 32 million in 2016. 1.50% • Growing markets are CIS, 13.2 mill. $ 1.00% 9.0 mill. $ 5.9 mill. $ MENA and Gulf markets.
0.50% Average World share World Average 0.00% 4.5 mill. $ -0.50% 6.4 thsd. $ -1.00% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Average growth in relation to the World
CIS MENA Gulf Russia Turkey NMS EU15
Import Import growth (2010=1) 140 10 120 8 100 6
80 Million USD Million 60 4 40 2 20 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CIS MENA Gulf Russia Turkey World CIS MENA Gulf Russia Turkey Frozen strawberry at third markets
Import growth in relation to the World and the World share (2011-2016) Opportunities 4.50% • Import of frozen strawberries at 4.00% 3.50% 33.1 mill. $ main market destinations EU15 3.00% 2.50% 18.6 mill. $ and Russia is declining. Only 2.00% Turkey increased the import of 1.50% 1.00% 3.41.5 mill. mill. $ $ frozen strawberries in last years 0.50% 2.1 mill. $ Average World share World Average 0.00% 761.8 thsd. $ 304.7 thsd. $ -0.50% -1.00% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Average growth in relation to the World
CIS MENA Gulf Russia Turkey NMS EU15
Import 25 Import growth (2010=1) 20 5 4
Million USD Million 15 3 10 2 5 1 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CIS MENA Gulf Russia Turkey CIS MENA Gulf Russia Turkey World Blueberry at third markets
Import growth in relation to the World and the World share (2011-2016) Opportunities 3.00% • Gulf and MENA are increasing 2.50% 40.6 mill. $ import of blueberries over 100 2.00% pp per year at period 2011 – 1.50% 2016. 1.00% 7.7 mill. $
0.50% 2.7 mill. $ 632.8 thsd. $ 1.0 mill. $ Average World share WorldAverage 0.00% 185.2 thsd. $ 346.3 thsd. $ -0.50% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% Average growth in relation to the World
CIS MENA Gulf Russia Turkey NMS EU15
Import 14,000,000 Import growth (2010=1) 12,000,000 20 200 10,000,000 15 150 8,000,000
6,000,000 10 100 Gulf 4,000,000 5 50 2,000,000 0 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CIS MENA Gulf Russia Turkey CIS MENA Russia Turkey World Gulf Blueberry at third markets
CIS MENA Turkey $/kg $/kg $/kg 20 15 10 5 0 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Poland USA USA Morocco Spain Chile Peru Chile Peru Lithuania United Arab Emirates Spain Guinea-… South Africa Morocco Russian… Argentina Canada Ukraine Netherlands Netherl… Chile Peru Bosnia… Israel Poland Argentina Netherl… Lebanon Uruguay
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 0 10 20 30 40 50 Quantity exported Export price Quantity exported Export price Quantity exported Export price Tons Tons Tons
Gulf Russia $/kg $/kg 15 10 5 0 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
USA Chile Spain Spain Chile Poland United… Peru South… Morocco Argentina Argentina Netherl… Mexico Peru Belarus Lebanon Netherlands Poland Serbia
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Quantity exported Export price Quantity exported Export price Tons Tons Sales and consumption Processing Production 21% 21% oftotal capacity capacity up to 500 capacityto500 up t Cold storages withstorages Cold Small producers with old plantings or the producers newcomers producerstothethe producersplantingsor newcomers Small with old Industry sector driven by policy sectordriven signals capacity 500 capacity500 26% 26% oftotal capacity Cold storages withstorages Cold Cold storages with capacity over 3,000 with storagesover capacityCold 3,000 t – 2,000 2,000 t 51% 51% oftotal capacity EU EU importer Retail Stable, commercialStable,producers contracted by the by contractedcompany cold storageowner cold Serbia VC Import – Raspberry VC main characteristics
Serbia BiH Kosovo
Not possible even to estimate the number of producers. • Fluctuation of the number of producers but • Small production, but very dynamic growth There is a number of professional commercial estimation is that 50% are with stable production • According to USAID data there are 1600 raspberry producers usually contracted by the companies – cold with yields 8-10 t per ha producers in Kosovo storages. On contrary to them there is also a large • Number of producers in sector highly driven by the number of the producers driven by the high policy interventions on local or canton level expectation from media, donors, politicians which (distribution od free of charge planting material, entered the sector as a consequence od expectation subsidies per kg) that berry production at small household can provide existence at rural region. Their entry and exit from the production cause instability in the sector both in terms of price and quality. • Cold storage capacities with freezing regime in • On BiH on contrary to other countries in the region • Intensive growth of cold storage capacities also Serbia are about 310.000 tons (MAFWM register) there is very Important role of the collectors in value supported by the Kosovo Government subsidies for • At the period 2012 – 2016 large number of small cold chain due to scattered production areas. The fee of investments storages (50 to 500 t) appeared in major raspberry collectors depends on different circumstances and • Present capacities (2017) are about the 8.000 tons regions. They were intermediators purchasing during conditions but they are payed by the cold storages and expanding further the harvest and selling to companies exporters after from 5 to 10 cents per kg • The cold storage capacities are 500 to 1000 t the season. • Expansion of cold storage capacities in last 4 years • The cold storages with capacities over 3000 t are driven by the high prices over of 50% ot total capacities. It is obvious that in • Present capacities are estimated at 30.000 t (no last several years the concentration of purchase is formal data or register of coldstorages). According ongoing but competition at purchase level exists to interviews the capacities are expanding further in 2017 and 2018 • Concentration of cold storage capacities around 2 companies Bos Agro Food and Heko The sale of frozen berries is both for industry and retail. 46 % of the export is at EU destinations while 36% is Sales is moving from sales to Serbia to sales to EU The companies with larger capacities and quality able to sold to Serbia, importers provide continuous supply are selling to EU retail. Others are selling to EU importers (majority) or directly to the processing industry. Type of the producers – Raspberry
Type of the producer Main characteristics Yields
• Raspberry producers • Producers who improve production by increasing the area, the timely • Best producers are having the open fielfd floricane implementation of new technologies (nutrition water-soluble and foliar yields (15 up to 20 t / ha), and an varieties fertilizers, protection, timely pruning, removing shoots, irrigation, skilled excellent fruit quality. workforce in harvest ...). • Average yield is 5 to 8 t per ha. • Typically, these producers have contracts with cold storages Range from 2 to 20 t • Producers who comply with the agreed production technology and • In BiH best yields are common in quality receive a price that is in most cases higher than the purchase central regions (Bugojno, Zenica, price which is formed at the time of harvest. Vakuf)
• Raspberry producers • Most common production model in Kosov =o and from 2014 in • Yields are 4 – 15 t/ha. producing raspberries Vojvodina- Serbia on 0.5 to 1 ha of • in BiH few plantations over 1 ha in central BiH in Visoko primocane varieties • Plantings > 1 ha • Some quantities marketed at fresh market, majority for the frozen • Main varieties Polka, Polana, Heritage,
• Raspberry producers • Marketed at fresh market • Yields are 20 - 30 t per ha producing under the • Spreading technology in Serbia and few in BiH plastic cover • Majority of plantations are with cv Heritage but also Glen Ample, Tulameen, Tulamagic, Himbo Top, • Ready to switch to organic market (buyers requestis the organic production under cover) Cold storage capacities
Number of cold storages Number of cold storages Number of cold storages
2% 5% 0 - 100 t 8% 9% 9% 4% 21% 100 - 500 t 24% 6% 100 - 500 t 37% 14% 100 - 500 t 6% 500 - 1,000 t 500 - 1,000 t 500 - 1,000 t 1,000 - 1,500 t 15% 1,000 - 1,500 t 39% 1,000 - 1,500 29% 1,500 - 2,000 t 11% t 61% 2,000 - 3,000 t 2,000 - 3,000 t 1,500 - 2,000 t
Serbia BiH Kosovo 160 120 10 14 6 6 140 9 100 12 5 5 120 8 80 7 10 100 4 4
6 8
Thousand tons Thousand Thousand tons Thousand 80 60 tons Thousand 5 3 3 60 6 40 4 40 3 4 2 2 20 20 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 0
0 - 100 t 100 - 0
> 6,000 t 6,000 >
100 - 500 t 500 - 100
0 - 100 t 100 - 0
> 6,000 t 6,000 >
500 - 1,000 t 1,000 - 500
0 - 100 t 100 -0
> 6,000 t 6,000 >
100 - 500 t 500 - 100
1,000 - 1,500 t 1,500 - 1,000 t 2,000 - 1,500 t 3,000 - 2,000 t 6,000 - 3,000
500 - 1,000 t 1,000 - 500 t 500 - 100
1,000 - 1,500 t 1,500 - 1,000 t 2,000 - 1,500 t 3,000 - 2,000 t 6,000 - 3,000 t 1,000 - 500
1,000 - 1,500 t 1,500 - 1,000 2,000 - 3,000 t 3,000 - 2,000 t 6,000 - 3,000 No. of cold storages Capacity (t) t 2,000 - 1,500 No. of cold storages Capacity (t) Source: UN Comtrade, Ministries of Agriculture, Market data Company cold storage capacities BiH and Kosovo
# Naziv kompanije Kapacitet (u tonama) 1. Bos Agro Food, Srebrenica i Bugojno 2,500 + 200 2. ZZ Srebrenica, Srebrenica 1,000 1 Agro-Peti Podujeva 500 3. Insieme ZZ, Bratunac 700 4. Agros d.o.o, Bratunac 500 2 APC Agroprodukt Commerce 1000 5. Nova hladnjaca, Bratunac 1,000 LLC Podujeva 6. Studen prom d.o.o, Zvornik 1,000 7. Smrčak d.o.o, Zvornik 700 3 Agrium Fruits Ferizaj 200 8. ZZ Voćar, Glumina/Zvornik 300 9. ZZ Uvac, Rudo 500 4 As Promet Leposavic 200 10. Hip-Ex d.o.o, Kopači/Goražde 1,000 11. Herbos d.o.o, Ustikolina 300 5 Besiana-G LLC Ferizaj 1000 12. Klas d.d., Sarajevo 1,000 13. Frutti Funghi d.o.o, Visoko 400 6 Eurofruti LLC 1000 14. Orange plus d.o.o, Kiseljak 500 15. Pronatura OZ, Zenica 1,000 7 Agro Red Gold Prizren 300 16. Delta trade / Delta Frost d.o.o, Zenica 2,000 17. Natural Food, Vitez i Željezno Polje/Žepče 1,800 + 400 8 Fresh Fruit -PR Gracanica 1000 18. Euro Stil d.o.o, Doboj 2,500 19. Tari d.o.o Počuljice/Vitez 500 9 Fungo LLC Kamenica 1000 20. Šumski plod d.o.o, Prozor 500 21. Heko/H&H Fruit d.o.o, Bugojno / Behov Han, Žepče 2,500 + 1,500 10 Hitflores LLC Dragas 2000 22. Starnet/Frozen Berries, Bugojno 2,000 23. Mushroom trade d.o.o, Banja Luka 1,000 24. Prijedorčanka a.d., Prijedor 1,000 25. Agrodar PZ, Cazin 400 26. PZ Krajiska malina 400 27. S.P.Z Agromerkantilija, Velika Kladusa 1,000 28. Baso d.o.o, Todorovo/Velika Kladusa 400 29. Vrganj promet d.o.o, Buzim 500 TOTAL 31,000 Performance of main berry fruit exporters in Serbia
Income Profit Employees 200 10 1,600
180
1,400 Million EUR Million Million EUR Million 8 160 1,200 140 6 1,000 120
100 800 4
80 600
60 2 400 40
0 200 20 2013 2014 2015 2016
0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 -2 2013 2014 2015 2016 SWOT Strengths
Production Purchase and processing Market
Competition at producer level –number of producers family Competition at purchase level – over 300 cold storages Export –focused sector with export experience and households with competitive production – refer to Slide No purchasing the soft fruits in Serbia, more than 20 established connection with buyers - companies in Kosovo and over 30 in BiH. Existence of the commercial professional producers – companies or Contract farming / besides the production of oil crop the Competitive product. Raspberry main export family households with high productivity only sector with developed contract farming products from Serbia and among the main competitive products in BiH, Kosovo. New technologies and growing technique already present at several Process of concentration of companies main processors Zero tariff access to regional, Russian, EU and USA destinations. The innovation are usually implemented by the sector and exporters focused on marketing to EU retail sector markets newcomers and companies out of the agriculture sector Close to the big markets like the EU, RBG, Ukraine and Russia Predictable legal and macroeconomic environment due to the ongoing EU integration process Expectation of high GDP growth (3% for the whole region) Diversification of offer by adding value – drying, lyophilization Expansion of season by purchase of different soft and stone fruits Processing companies have invested in expansion, modernization and quality control Weaknesses
Production Purchase and processing Market
Tradition in main growing regions strongly influences the non/slow acceptance of Problems that arise during the purchase Increased competition in the region innovations (absence of grading, quality control and health safety of raspberry, control of the process of purchase, in terms of highlighting terms of purchase, payment deadline, etc.)
Price expectations based on period 2012 – 2016 Financing the stocks Lower chances to meet demand in counter seasonal export markets in comparison to producers from some other production regions
Variable productivity . Majority of producers are producing raspberries at small plantings Ensuring access to current and reliable data and Non developed market chains for fresh (0.1 – 0.2 ha ) and they significantly participate in the total raspberry production and they information describing the size and raspberry. Fresh raspberry requires well often need assistance in financing raspberry production, applying new technology, characteristics of the industry and the various developed organization of logistics and information on quality and safety standards required by export markets etc. markets for its products and trends with cold chain support. consumers will be very important. Availability of quality certified planting material free from viruses pests and diseases is Norovirus at RASFF Low purchasing power at local market major problem in the region. Hard to understand and explain why the problem is and in the region is obstacle to boost production of certified material. Dependence on import of quality certified and new and production for fresh market. Experience proven plant genetics planting material from Serbia is that one hypermarket store sells daily 1 kg of fresh raspberries. Enforcement of phytosanitary and PBR regulations. Lack od infrastructure for In Europe, dominance of retailer private enforcement of phytosanitary regulations highly influencing the standard labels may contribute to slower implementation Difficult to meet high-end market access expansion in demand by limiting supplier requirements; certifications (such as GlobalGAP) not widely implemented promotions; and there is little generic promotion of berries in Europe. Opportunities
Production Purchase and processing Market
Further diversification of varieties and growing technologies. Move toward purchase based on quality Consumer awareness/expectation of berries as „superfruits“The improve arrival quality and consistency, with greater focus on differentiation health and wellness trend in food is expected to drive growth flavor, firmness etc products which carry a functional health benefit. Consumer demand for consistent quality fruit, including look, colour and taste Potential to increase productivity by advanced technologies Developed credits market and IPARD Established relationship and existing history with buyers.
Organic production Expansion on markets other than EU frozen berry market
Move towards Integrated pest management and reduced inputs Mayor retailers seeking for security of supply EU berry demand for production growing rapidly and retailers seeking year-round supply, local & import, but there can be over-supply in certain weeks & competition intensifying. Developed credits market and IPARD Trend of consumption of convenience food especially fruit is increasing providing the opportunity for the creativity. Conveniance and variety are becoming the key selling characteristics of the product Treats
Production Purchase and processing Market
Wide spreading, uncontrolled spread of the production. The Cold storages with small capacities and focused on Growing competition. Increase of soft fruit production uncontrolled increase of raspberry plantations based on high frozen producs for industry will face the challenge in countries in the region, Bulgaria, Moldova, Ukraine, expectations, subsidies, lack of other options for employment of price competitiveness. They are becoming of in Spain, Morocco suppliers for companies with bigger capacities and contracts with retails More technology-intensive growing practices will increase costs which Concentration of purchase Competition from other fruits and snack food products may dampen demand Reduced ease of access and higher cost for labour Consumer expectation for assurances with product integrity and sustainability Reduced competition at purchase level
Climate change and variability in growing conditions
High costs of production relative to competitors, especially for labour
Increasing demand for standards implementation and low ability of majority od producers to implement the standards Capacities of of state infrastructure to implement the food safety and phytosanitary regulations Occurrence of Phytophthora spp root disease as major cause for wilting the plantations TOWS Opportunities / Strengths Opportunities / Weaknesses Commitment to quality Planting material supply and production Frozen raspberry is dominant export product to be processed and finalized by other Supply of the region by the quality certified planting material food industries at export destinations. There is vast possibility for added value, Establishment of production of the planting material for the region market as well as coupled with the good reputation of the region origin. for the CIS market and EU market • Fresh fruit is added value in the case of soft berry fruit marketing. There are blueberry, strawberry and raspberry and companies/producers already shifted and The quality certified planting material is major obstacle for the berry sector established at the fresh market. Aditionaly, adding value can be improved by development in the region. As example In Serbia the production of raspberry expanding season with new varieties, focusing on high quality and yield in planting material in 2016/2o17 was 1.5 million out of which only 295.000 were protected production, adopting improved technologies and inputs. certified. Also the certified strawberry plants were only 239.000 and no certified • Cultivated blueberries are novel to the fresh fruit market and have quickly taken blueberry production. Concerning the container raspberries 438.000 standard and off, due to its nutritional properties. Their consumption is already an “added 155.000 certified were produced. value” to the regular nutrition, and being a premium product itself, with high unit value, it requires premium presentation. • Newly introduced freeze drying in some companies adds to the quality of the product and retains its scope of use. Freeze drying is the process of dehydrating frozen foods under a vacuum so the moisture content changes directly from a solid to a gaseous form without having to undergo the intermediate liquid state through sublimation. In this process, the product maintains its original size and shape with a minimum of cell rupture. Removing moisture prevents a product from deteriorating at room temperature. It is novel for processing of berries in Serbia, and has proven to have number of applications in snacking, confectionary industry, pastry etc.
Treats / Strengths Treats / Weaknesses
- - 1. Exporting high-tech Dutch businesses are renowned in the region for being products and innovative and investing in production technologies. Specific demand in region is for modern variety and technologies to planting material, fertilizers, in particular organic ones, region biostimulators, biological pest control solutions and natural pollination methods, equipment for land-preparation, planting and potting, fertigation, spraying, crop Advantage - Capitalizes on key maintenance (pruning / trimming), internal logistics and strength of Dutch businesses and harvesting, mid and high-tech greenhouse solutions, wider sectors of industry. including ventilation, screening, irrigation, fertigation, hydroponic systems and other climate control methods, labor management systems etc. 2. Technical and Business In the region, berry sector is competitive for years but driven by the same product (frozen fruits) and limited consultancy all technologies. At the same time, the competition is over the supply developing all around and there is a need for the sector to shift from price competitiveness to quality competitiveness. chain The shift requires the spectra of specific knowledge’s and skills not available in region.
Advantage: Business owners in Region are already hiring or consider hiring consultants when they need help or perspective on Contribute to adaptation of new technology, increase productivity and their chosen path or need a catalyst for change in their quality (= marketability) but also companies. support for shifting the businesses itoward new opportunities. In the whole region there is a lack of knowledge on experience on modern products and technologies but major lack is on expertise on specific markets, strategic planning and development of business strategies, creation of new businesses as well as proper identification of problems, rolling the changes and providing objectivity. 3. Production and Implementation of production solutions that improve trade partnerships quality, adds variety, reduces cost. On the ground exists the for propagation infrastructure as a stone for the further improvements. materials for the Utilization of production partner in region and joint efforts regional for the third markets as Russia and CIS, Iran. Rational is to production sector build presence in region with support of the partner with as well as for the local knowledge, production capacities and lower costs. third markets Suited to businesses with long term interest but limited resources / appetite to invest directly
Advantage:
Acces to regional, EU and CIS markets 4. Adding value Creation of higher value products from standard frozen on standard products frozen products Rational of intervention is to produce high or higher value ingredients which (potentially) enable producers to position their product in a number of key ways. Production for the niche markets - innovation is relevant throughout the entire value chain and could include new Advantages consumer products and concepts, new packaging solutions Significant added value potential. and types. 5. Trade There are sector examples in region on partnerships which partnerships in are enabling access to more profitable markets (example the soft fruit partnership via AMS Sourcing B.V.) sector In region there is a competitive sector but also there is a need for drivers familiar to businesses in Netherland. The drivers can be research and adopted international technologies, expanded and upgraded logistical facilities, Advantage: strengthened vertical supply chains, improved organizations • Permanent presence in market – for collective action, building the credible systems for greater knowledge, closer relationships. quality assurance and food safety management. Also there is a need for associated services, such as packaging, • Increased potential access to markets closed via export equipment supply, and technical consulting, which in turn contributed to the underlying competitiveness of the sector. Risks
Type Type of the risk SERBIA BIH Kosovo North Macedonia Production Wide spreading, uncontrolled spreading of production. The uncontrolled increase of raspberry + ++ ++ 0 plantations based on raising high expectations, subsidies, lack of other options for employment are extremely dangerous for the production and market Production Complicated access to good varieties due to lack of trust in system for protection intellectual property. ++ ++ ++ + New varieties (Driscol, Meiosis) are under license protection or patents. Driscol (Driscoll’s Maravilla Driscoll’s Cardinal Meiosis Kwanza, Kweli, Imara are available but under strict contract terms. Production Availability of quality certified planting material free from viruses pests and diseases is major problem ++ ++ ++ + in the region. Hard to understand and explain why the problem is production of certified material. Production Occurrence of Phytophthora spp root disease as major cause for wilting the plantations + + + 0
Market Non developed market chains for fresh berry. Fresh pberry requires well developed organization of ++ ++ ++ + logistics and cold chain support. Market Low purchasing power at local market and in the region is obstacle to boost production for fresh ++ ++ ++ ++ market. Experience from Serbia is that one hypermarket store sells daily 1 kg of fresh raspberries. Market Increase of small fruit production in countries in the region, Bulgaria, Moldova, Ukraine, in Spain, ++ ++ ++ ++ Morocco Policy No IPM certification at place ++ + + No complete compliance with EU phytosanitary regulations ++ ++ ++ No compliance with Russian MRL standards + + + Not able to valorise quality due to the lack of legislation and implementation for quality labelling + ++ ++ No complete compliance with EU food safety standards (Noro virus for raspberries and + blueberries) ++ ++ ++ Unpredictable cost for construction investments due to state and local taxes and duties ++ ++ ++ Enforcement of PBR only after interventions
Additional info useful for understanding the WB
Some info which can be expanded on addittional information. They might be useful for understanding the environment and positioning the berry sector in overall ag Export trends agricultural products
Serbia is the export leader, with cereals and fruits dominating in the export Serbia’s agricultural trade balance Ever since 2002, Serbia has had considerable success in agricultural products trade: both 4,000 import and export have been rising constantly ever since. Since 2005 Serbia has had a 3,000
surplus. However, Serbia mainly exports primary products. 2,000 Millions USD Millions BIH has stable trends in import, export and trade deficit, except 2015 when meat export 1,000 was increased and consequently decreased 0 -1,000
Export of groups of products for selected countries in relation to CEFTA (2010 – 2015) 600% Source: UN Comtrade Cereals BiH’s agricultural trade balance 3,000 500% 2,000 Fruits
400% 1,000 Millions USD Millions
are 0 Vegetables Dairy 300% -1,000 Vegetables
CEFTA sh CEFTA Meat -2,000 Dairy
200%
2011
2016 2010 2012 2013 2015
Oilcrops 2014
2007
2005 2006 2008 2009 Meat 2004 Fruits Meat Average Average Source: UN Comtrade Vegetables 100% Fruits North Macedonia agricultural trade balance 1000 Oilcrops Oilcrops Cereals 0% 500 Cereals Dairy
Millions USD Millions 0 -100% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% -500 Average growth in relation to CEFTA Bosnia and Herzegovina Serbia Macedonia 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: UN Comtrade Export Import Trade balance Fruit trade Kosovo Serbia is only net exporter of fruits in the BiH region 30 120 • Serbia has constant import of fruits while 100 20 export is growing on a steady pace. 80 60 • Export of fruit in BiH is increasing, thus Million Million USD 10 trade balance iis improving Million USD Million 40 • Although Kosovo started exporting 0 20 0 raspberries and other fruits, it’s import 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -10 -20 growth is significantly higher. -40 • North Macedonia is recovering after two -20 -60 consecutive years of decline in export. -80 Import is constantly growing in recent -30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 years. Trade balance Export Import Trade balance Export Import • Albania is traditional net importer with rapid growth of export in recent years.
Serbia North Macedonia Albania 80 700 80 600 70 60 60 500 40 50
Million USD Million 20
400 USD Million Million Million USD 40 0 300 30 -20 200 20 -40 100 10 -60 0 0 -80 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Trade balance Export Import Source: UN ComtradeTrade balance Export Import Trade balance Export Import Trend credit market Number of agro credit increasing Portfolio of agro and business credits in Serbia in million euros • Agro portfolio (short-term and 12,000,000 450,000 long-term loans) has been steadily increasing over the past 400,000 10,000,000 15 years (only a few stagnation 350,000 periods) • The prevailing mode of 8,000,000 300,000 financing is via aggregators 250,000 and input suppliers 6,000,000 • The size of the loan primarily 200,000 increases due to consolidation
4,000,000 150,000 of the sector • Still a small number of clients 100,000 (less than 50,000) 2,000,000 • Although there is experience 50,000 working with farmers, some 0 0 banks have a very high NPL Dec 2011 Dec 2012 Dec 2013 Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Dec 2016 • About 80,000 producers have a Total Biznis Agro total credit history Expected trends at credit market NPL decreasing – trend expected to continue NPL delay over 90 days • More and more banks 25.0% interested in agriculture 22.5% • IPARD as new driver 21.4% • Biggest competition among 19.6% 19.8% 19.9% 20.0% 20.0% 18.3% banks 16.9% 17.1% • Cheap capital 15.4% 15.1% 14.5% • Banks knew customers much 15.0% better than before • Stabilization of the market situation without major 10.0% turbulence since 2011
5.8% • Increase the portfolio 5.0% • Lowering product prices increased loans • A few not the best years for 0.0% aggregators • After a significant increase, the NPL began to decrease and it would continue to decrease until it reached 5% - 9% Land market – sale
Agricultural and prices in EU countries
Litvanija Rumunija Estonija Agricultural land prices in Serbia Letonija Mađarska 2014 2015 Češka Regions Price Price Bugarska euro/ha euro/ha Hrvatska Slovačka Belgrade region 9.500 9.300 Francuska Švedska Vojvodina region 7.100 8.400 Poljska Finska Šumadija and West Nemačka** 6.300 6.800 Španija Serbia region Italija** Grčka South and East Serbia 5.700 6.400 Slovenija region Danska Average Serbia 7.200 7.700 Belgija* V.Britanija Luksemburg Holandija
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Thousand EUR per ha
TravnatePermanent cropspovršine and pastures €/ha ObradivoArable land poljoprivredno zemljište €/ha Land market lease
The price of the lease of agricultural land in EU
Letonija Estonija The price of the lease of state agricultural land in Serbia Slovačka Češka Portugal Litvanija Number f Malta Year Area (ha) (euro/ha) contracts Hrvatska Mađarska Rumunija 2007/2008 2.938 178.948 142,80 Slovenija Španija 2008/2009 4.143 229.824 146,10 Francuska Švedska 2009/2010 5.067 240.565 140,21 Bugarska 2010/2011 6.474 254.494 137,31 Poljska Finska 2011/2012 7.693 261.315 154,66 Luksemburg V.Britanija 2012/2013 9.870 289.613 172,17 Italija Austrija 2013/2014 10.969 252.049 191,60 Belgija Nemačka 2014/2015 14.090 273.035 186,71 Grčka Danska total 61.244 1.979.843 158,95 Holandija 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 eura/ha Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Serbia and Montenegro
Mr Geert Kits Nieuwenkamp, Agriculture Attaché [email protected] Ms Mila Mirkovic, Agriculture Assistant [email protected]
Ivana Dulic Markovic We are working with farmers and [email protected] companies supporting them to make +381 63 304 703 good decisions. Skype: ivanadulic1 www.seedev.org