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The Nile Basin and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

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The Nile Basin and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Water Urbanism in Transboundary Regions: The Nile Basin and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Irina Grcheva Thesis submitted to obtain the degree of Master of Science in Human Settlements Supervisor: Prof. dr. Bruno De Meulder Academic Year 2015 - 2016 © Copyright by KU Leuven Zonder voorafgaande schriftelijke toestemming van zowel de promoter(en) als de auteur(s) is overnemen, kopiëren, gebruiken of realiseren van deze uitgave of gedeelten ervan verboden. Voor aanvragen tot of informatie i.v.m. het overnemen en/of gebruik en/of realisatie van gedeelten uit deze publicatie, wend u tot de KU Leuven, Faculteit Ingenieurswetenschappen - Kasteelpark Arenberg 1, B-3001 Heverlee (België). Telefoon +32-16-32 13 50 & Fax. +32- 16-32 19 88. Voorafgaande schriftelijke toestemming van de promoter(en) is eveneens vereist voor het aanwenden van de in dit afstudeerwerk beschreven (originele) methoden, producten, schakelingen en programma’s voor industrieel of commercieel nut en voor de inzending van deze publicatie ter deelname aan wetenschappelijke prijzen of wedstrijden. © Copyright by KU Leuven Without written permission of the supervisor(s) and the authors it is forbidden to reproduce or adapt in any form or by any means any part of this publication. Requests for obtaining the right to reproduce or utilize parts of this publication should be addressed to KU Leuven, Faculty of Engineering Science - Kasteelpark Arenberg 1, B-3001 Heverlee (Belgium). Telephone +32-16-32 13 50 & Fax. +32-16-32 19 88. A written permission of the supervisor(s) is also required to use the methods, products, schematics and programs described in this work for industrial or commercial use, and for submitting this publication in scientific contests. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my promoter Prof. dr. Bruno De Meulder for his guidance. His research and studies on water urbanism inspired the topic of the thesis, and further inform my current understanding of human utilization of water resources. Further, I would like to thank my father Leonid Grchev for the encouragement, and my friend Iskra Andreeva for the support. Finally, I would especially like to express my gratitude to Maarten Hendrickx for all the efforts and all the support. Irina Grcheva iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iii TABLE OF CONTENTS v ABSTRACT vi Abstract vii LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES viii List of Figures viii List of Tables viii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS 2 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCITON 2 Thesis Topic 3 Problem Statement 3 Research Questions 6 Research Methodology 7 Organization of the Thesis 8 CHAPTER 2: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 12 Water Urbanism 13 Large Dam Projects: Impacts and Guideline for Decision-Making and Project Planning 15 Transboundary Rivers: International Frameworks and Sharing Practices 22 CHAPTER 3: HISTORIC OVERVIEW OF THE NILE BASIN 28 Basic Facts about the Nile River System 29 The Nile Basin in Ancient Egypt 3000 BC - 312 AD: Basin Irrigation and Shardufs 29 Mohamed Ali and the Cotton Industry 31 Nile during the British Empire 1882-1952 and the Nile Water Agreement 1929 32 Nasser, the Nile Water Agreement 1959 and the High Aswan Dam 34 The Nile Basin Initiative 1999 35 CHAPTER 4: CASE STUDY: THE GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM 38 Ethiopia: Basic Facts 39 The Blue Nile (The Abbey River) in Ethiopia: Basic Facts 40 Planning for Change: The Growth and Transformation Plan 2010/11-2014/15 40 The Energy Sector of Ethiopia 41 The Beginnings of the GERD Project: Politics and Funding 43 Technical Documentation and Description of the Project 45 Benishangul-Gumuz Region: Inhabitants and Environment 46 The Agricultural Sector of Ethiopia 52 Downstream Impact in Sudan and Egypt: Water Infrastructures and Agriculture 53 CHAPTER 5: THE GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM: IMPACT AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS 56 Local Scale: Resettlement of People 57 National Impact: The GERD and the Regional Development in Ethiopia 61 International Scale: Impact on Water Infrastructures and Agriculture in Sudan and Egypt 64 The Big Picture: Sharing Resources across Borders as a Strategy for Water Urbanism 68 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS 74 APPENDICES 78 Appendix A 79 BIBLIOGRAPHY 80 MASTER’S THESIS FILE 87 iv ABSTRACT vi ABSTRACT In 2011, the Ethiopian government started the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. This large-scale hydropower project is planned to be completed in 2017. When it was initially announced, the GERD was labeled as a controversial project, mainly out of two reasons - the complicated water politics in the Nile Basin, and the negative perception of large dam projects. Past experiences have shown that large dam projects, such as the GERD, produce more adverse impact than benefits. Nevertheless, research has also pointed out that whether large dams would generate predominantly adverse impacts depends on the decision-making and the project planning processes. On the other side, the GERD tackled the complicated water politics in the Nile Basin. The Blue Nile is the main tributary of the Nile, and the crucial source of water for Sudan and Egypt. As the GERD was announced without consultation with Sudan and Egypt, the two downstream countries opposed the project greatly, up until March 2015, when the governments of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt agreed on the GERD. In addition, the ‘ownership’ of the Nile water resources according to “Nile Water Agreement 1959” belong to Egypt and Sudan. At the moment, the new water treaty that enables all of the eleven riparian countries to use the Nile has not been signed by Egypt and Sudan. The thesis will research the GERD project and will ask the question: how this large- water infrastructure could benefit Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt? By now, three issues have been pointed out, which if unaccounted could possible cause adverse impacts. On local scale - the resettlement of 20.000 Ethiopians from the dam site, on national - the lack of strategy for domestic use of the energy produced by the GERD, and on international scale - the need to reassess the downstream impact of the GERD on the water infrastructures and agriculture in Sudan and Egypt. The thesis will research these issues more in-depth. In addition, the GERD’s role in the future water politics and development in the Nile Basin will be discussed. Will the project inspire a common vision between the eleven co-basin countries, or will the states continue to pursue individual projects on the Nile? In order to research the GERD project and the water urbanism in the Nile Basin, the thesis will adopt a cross-disciplinary theoretical framework that employs knowledge from the disciplines of urbanism, development studies, and transboundary water politics. Furthermore, the research will present a historical overview of the human utilization of the Nile Basin, as well as a case study of the GERD that will be analyzed through the lens of the theoretical framework. In conclusion, the thesis will outline a set of proposals on how to deal with the local, national and international impacts, as well as an alternative model for future water urbanism in the Nile Basin. vii LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES LIST OF FIGURES [1] GERD, construction site [2] The Nile Basin countries, existing dams and the GERD construction site [3] GERD, 3D visualization [4] GERD, construction site [5] GERD, construction site [6] Water Urbanism, Vietnam [7] The Kariba Dam, Zimbabwe, 1965 [8] Big Band Dam, Missouri River, South Dakota, United States [9] Xiaowan Dam resettlement, unfinished house [10] Blue Nile, border between Ethiopia and Sudan [11] The Nile, border between Sudan and Egypt [12] GERD, construction site [13] Map of the Nile, Ptolemaic period [14] Shaduf [15] Saqia [16] Map of the Nile Basin during the British Empire [17] High Aswan Dam, source: Google Earth Pro [18] GERD, construction site [19] “Blue Nile Water Study” 1963, the red circle marks the location of the GERD [20] Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Halemariam Desalegn and Omar al-Bashir on March 28, 2015 [21] GERD, 3D visualization [22] GERD, location [23] GERD, 3D visualization [24] Blue Nile, 2010 [25] Blue Nile, 2012 [26] Blue Nile, 2014 [27] The communities of Benishangul-Gumuz Region [28] GERD, projected reservoir extend [29] GERD, construction site [30] GERD, construction site [31] Blue Nile [32] Agricultural fields in Ethiopia [33] The Gezira scheme, Sudan [34] Part of turbine, Roseires Dam, Sudan [35] Map of North America, 1854, rivers as borders [36] GERD, construction site [37] Areal view, construction site viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Ethiopia, basic facts Table 2: The energy sector of Ethiopia Table 3: The agricultural sector of Ethiopia viii LIST OF ABBREVATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank AfDB African Development Bank BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa CFA Cooperative Framework Agreement DRC The Democratic Republic of Congo FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FDRE Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia GERD Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam GDP Gross Domestic Product GNI Gross National Income GoE Government of Ethiopia GTP Growth and Transformation Plan 2010/11-2014/15 HAD High Aswan Dam IPoE International Panel of Experts MDG Millennium Development Goals MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology MoFED Ministry of Finance and Economic Development NBI Nile Basin Initiative OMA Office orf Metropolitan Architecture PASDEP Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty 2005/06-2009/2010 UN United Nations UNEP United Nations Environment Programme WB World Bank WCD World Commission on Dams WFP World Food Programme WHO World Health Organization ix CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 2 Thesis Topic In 2011, the Ethiopian Government started the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia (IPoE, 2013). Today the GERD is 40% finished and it is predicted to be completed in 2017 (Salini Impregilo, 2015). The dam is planned as a hydropower project with installed capacity of 6000 MW and estimated annual energy production of 15.692 GWh (IPoE, 2013).
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