DOCSLIB.ORG

Parliamentary Inquiry

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Parliamentary Inquiry February 9, 2004 Science and Technology Committee House of Commons 7 Millbank London SW1P 3JA UNITED KINGDOM Dear Dr Gibson and Members of the Science and Technology Committee: On behalf of the Public Library of Science, I am pleased to submit the following written evidence to the Science and Technology Committee's inquiry into scientific publication practices. I congratulate you and your colleagues for your initiative and leadership in pursuing this timely and important inquiry. The Public Library of Science (PLoS) is a grassroots, world-wide, not-for-profit organization of scientists, physicians, and members of the public working to make the world's scientific and medical literature a freely available resource, easily accessible to anyone, anywhere, with an Internet connection through open, online public libraries. The deepening crisis in scientific publishing as journal prices continue to escalate will restrict comprehensive access to the scientific literature to a dwindling elite at a handful of wealthy research institutions in the advanced economies. While action to reduce subscription costs would be welcome, it will ultimately be necessary for the scientific community to abandon the unstable, outdated, restrictive and fundamentally anti- competitive fee-for-access publication system. Only when we transition to an open access system - in which publishers are paid a fair price for the services they provide to the scientific community, and all reports become immediately freely available online - will we have a sustainable and equitable system for publishing science that serves the interests of the public, the public institutions that support scientific research, and scientists themselves. My colleagues and I at PLoS have been advocating for open access for over five years. Last year we joined London's BioMed Central as an operating open access publisher with the prominent launch of our journal PLoS Biology. We are encouraged by the recent momentum towards open access, highlighted last year by support from the Wellcome Trust, the Max Planck Society, the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, and many other important funding agencies, widespread favorable accounts of our movement in the international press, and enormous enthusiasm within the scientific community. I would like to request the opportunity to present oral evidence to the committee. I and the members the PLoS board and staff would be happy to answer your questions about the principles and practice of open access publication and share our experience as scientists advocating and carrying out open access. In my capacities as a scientist, educator, former director of the National Institutes of Health, and president of Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, I wholeheartedly support your inquiry into scientific publishing and trust that you will agree with PLoS about the extraordinary possibilities afforded by open access. Sincerely, Harold E. Varmus, M.D. Chair, Board of Directors, and co-Founder, Public Library of Science President and CEO, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center Nobel Laureate in Medicine or Physiology Science and Technology Committee – Inquiry into Scientific Publications Evidence from the Public Library of Science TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Executive Summary 2. Scientific Publishing and its Stakeholders 3. What is Wrong with the Existing System of Scholarly Publishing? 4. The Open Access Business Model 5. Why is Open Access Important? 6. Who Pays for Open Access? 7. The Transition to Open Access 8. Common Concerns about Open Access 9. Recommendations and Actions 10. Supporting Documents • Appendix A. About the Public Library of Science • Appendix B. “Why PloS Became a Publisher” • Appendix C. Statements of support for open access • Appendix D. The PLoS UK Editorial Board • Appendix E. List of UK Signatories • Appendix F. Press Articles on Open Access Executive Summary “I want a poor student to have the same means of indulging his learned curiosity, of following his rational pursuits, of consulting the same authorities, of fathoming the most intricate inquiry as the richest man in the kingdoms." Sir Antonio Panizzi, Principal Librarian of the British Museum, 1836 1.1 What was an impossible ideal in 1836 — making humanity’s treasury of scientific and medical knowledge freely available to all – is today within our reach. We now have the means to create an online public library containing the collected published work of every scientist and physician, to scientists, teachers, students, physicians and the public around the world. 1.2 This could be accomplished without sacrificing the essential services provided by scientific publishers and without spending any more money than we currently spend to buy a small academic elite limited access to the research literature. We need only replace the outdated, inefficient and unsustainable fee-for-access business model with a new “open access” model supported by a growing international coalition of scientists, funding agencies and publishers. 1.3 The traditional fee-for-access model is a vestige of an era when printing articles in paper journals was the most efficient way to disseminate new scientific discoveries and ideas. When each copy of a journal represented a significant cost for printing and distribution, it made sense for recipients to pay for each copy delivered. 1.4 With the Internet now the most effective and widely used medium for communicating the results of scientific research, charging for use is now economically irrational and limiting access to subscribers is needlessly restrictive. 1.5 Instead of allowing publishers to recover the costs of online publication (peer review, expert editing, production and archiving) by taking ownership of the articles and charging the readers and their agents for access, published scientific works could be made freely available to all simply by paying the costs related to each article at the time of its publication. 1.6 Open access publishing will not involve new expenses, nor will it place a financial burden on individual researchers. Under the fee-for-access system, the governments, funding agencies, universities and other organizations that sponsor scientific research pay virtually all of the costs of scientific publishing through the funds indirectly provided to research libraries. In an open access system, these same parties would pay, but they would get far more for their money. 1.7 This simple change in the way we pay for publication would involve no compromise of the traditional values of scientific publication. The essential role that scientific journals play in orchestrating peer-review, editing, and stratification of research articles is independent of the way costs are recovered. We can maintain a vibrant scientific publishing industry by paying publishers a fair price for the service they provide the scientific community, while providing comprehensive, universal access to the scientific literature. 1.8 The fee-for-access system is anti-competitive. Scientific papers are not interchangeable, and every journal has a monopoly on the papers that scientists have chosen to publish in it. These monopolies over an essential commodity prevent market forces from keeping subscription costs rational, leading to the current unsustainable serials crisis. 1.9 By shifting from a monopolistic market on scientific knowledge, to a free-market for publishing services, open access will restore market efficiencies to scientific publishing. By treating the costs of publication as costs of research and including funds in research grants, monies available for publication will scale with publication expenses. Thus, open access is intrinsically sustainable, whereas the current system clearly is not. 1.10 Scientific knowledge was never meant to be a commodity – it is an invaluable public good. Publications describing publicly funded research belong in the public domain, where they can do the greatest good for science and humanity. Recommendations The UK government – acting in the public interest and as the major sponsor of scientific research in the UK – should act decisively to remedy the current crisis in scientific publishing and catalyze the transition to open access by: 1.11 Establishing a UK national (or Commonwealth) online public library for research literature. This library would work in collaboration with the US National Library of Medicine and other national libraries to ensure that every published research article – especially those arising from publicly funded research – are securely archived in perpetuity and are freely and readily available to, and useable by, the public. 1.12 Asserting that restrictions on the distribution and use of research articles describing publicly funded research are inconsistent with the goals of the government in funding research. 1.13 Mandating (following a suitable transition period) that all research articles arising from publicly-funded research be made immediately and permanently available to the public by open access publication and deposition in a suitable public repository at the time of publication. 1.14 Designating a portion of university funding for the support of open access publication charges to provide the means for faculty and researchers (particularly those without specific grant funding) to publish in open access journals. 1.15 Designating a portion of NHS funding for the support of open access publication charges to provide the means for clinicians and researchers (particularly those without specific grant funding) to publish
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Wellcome Trust Annual Report and Financial Statements 2019 Is © the Wellcome Trust and Is Licensed Under Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 UK
    Annual Report and Financial Statements 2019 Table of contents Report from Chair 3 Report from Director 5 Trustee’s Report 7 What we do 8 Review of Charitable Activities 9 Review of Investment Activities 21 Financial Review 31 Structure and Governance 36 Social Responsibility 40 Risk Management 42 Remuneration Report 44 Remuneration Committee Report 46 Nomination Committee Report 47 Investment Committee Report 48 Audit and Risk Committee Report 49 Independent Auditor’s Report 52 Financial Statements 61 Consolidated Statement of Financial Activities 62 Consolidated Balance Sheet 63 Statement of Financial Activities of the Trust 64 Balance Sheet of the Trust 65 Consolidated Cash Flow Statement 66 Notes to the Financial Statements 67 Alternative Performance Measures and Key Performance Indicators 114 Glossary of Terms 115 Reference and Administrative Details 116 Table of Contents Wellcome Trust Annual Report 2019 | 2 Report from Chair During my tenure at Wellcome, which ends in The macro environment is increasingly challenging, 2020, I count myself lucky to have had the which has created volatility in financial markets. opportunity to meet inspiring people from a rich Q4 2018 was a very difficult quarter, but the diversity of sectors, backgrounds, specialisms resumption of interest rate cuts by the US Federal and scientific fields. Reserve underpinned another year of gains for our portfolio. We recognise that the cycle is extended, Wellcome’s achievements belong to the people and that the portfolio is likely to face more who work here and to the people we fund – it is challenging times ahead. a partnership that continues to grow stronger, more influential and more ambitious, spurred by The team is working hard to ensure that our independence.
    [Show full text]
  • Annual Report 2003
    ANNUAL REPORT 2003 Published by the Marketing and Communications Division The Australian National University Published by The Marketing and Communications Division The Australian National University Produced by ANU Publications Unit Marketing and Communications Division The Australian National University Printed by University Printing Service The Australian National University ISSN 1327-7227 April 2004 Contents Council and University Office rs 7 Review of 2003 10 Council and Council Committee Meetings 20 University Statistics 22 Cooperation with Government and other Public Institutions 30 Joint Research Projects undertaken with Universities, CSIRO and other Institutions 76 Principal Grants and Donations 147 University Public Lectures 168 Freedom of Information Act 1982 Statement 172 Auditor-General’s Report 175 Financial Statements 179 University Organisational Structure 222 Academic Structure 223 ANU Acronyms 224 Index 225 Further information about ANU Detailed information about the achievements of ANU in 2003, especially research and teaching outcomes, is contained in the annual reports of the University’s Research Schools, Faculties, Centres and Administrative Divisions. For course and other academic information, contact: Director Student and Academic Services The Australian National University Canberra ACT 0200 T: 02 6125 3339 F: 02 6125 0751 For general information, contact: Director Marketing and Communications Division The Australian National University Canberra ACT 0200 T: 02 6125 2229 F: 02 6125 5568 The Council and University
    [Show full text]
  • Final Program
    Final Program The SIAM Conference on the Life Sciences is sponsored by the SIAM Activity Group on Life Sciences (SIAG/LS) The SIAM Activity Group on the Life Sciences was established to foster the application of mathematics to the life sciences and research in mathematics that leads to new methods and techniques useful in the life sciences. The life sciences have become quantitative as new technologies facilitate collection and analysis of vast amounts of data ranging from complete genomic sequences of organisms to satellite imagery of forest landscapes on continental scales. Computers enable the study of complex models of biological processes. The activity group brings together researchers who seek to develop and apply mathematical and computational methods in all areas of the life sciences. It provides a forum that cuts across disciplines to catalyze mathematical research relevant to the life sciences and rapid diffusion of advances in mathematical and computational methods. AN16/LS16 Mobile App Scan the QR code with any QR reader and download the TripBulder EventMobileTM app to your iPhone, iPad, iTouch, or Android devices. You can also visit www.tripbuildermedia.com/apps/siam2016events Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics 3600 Market Street, 6th Floor Philadelphia, PA 19104-2688 USA Telephone: +1-215-382-9800 Fax: +1-215- 386-7999 Conference E-mail: [email protected] Conference Web: www.siam.org/meetings/ Membership and Customer Service: (800) 447-7426 (US & Canada) or +1-215-382-9800 (worldwide) www.siam.org/meetings 2 2016 SIAM Annual Meeting General Information Table of Contents C. David Levermore SIAM Registration Desk University of Maryland, College Park, USA General Information ...............................2 The SIAM registration desk is located on Rachel Levy Exhibitor and Sponsor Information .6 the Concourse Level of the Westin Boston Harvey Mudd College, USA Waterfront.
    [Show full text]
  • World Health Summit Regional Meeting - Asia | Singapore 2013
    Singapore I April 8th - 10th, 2013 World Health Summit Regional Meeting - Asia | Singapore 2013 M8Alliance Summit Program Monday, April 8th, 2013 Tuesday, April 9th, 2013 I Program Millenia 1 Grand Ballroom Millenia 1 Millenia 2 Millenia 3 11.00 8.00 Keynote Lectures Keynote Lectures 12.00 9.00 Does Health Have a Future After 2015? (Richard Horton) 8.30 - 09.30 Grand Ballroom · Page 42 The Impact of the Genetic Revolution on Society (Mary-Claire King) Roundtable Discussion 13.00 Partner Symposium 10.00 Industry Leaders' Roundtable Discussion: Sustainable Innovations for Health Care in Asia - An Industry Perspective High-Level Nutrition Dialogue 09.30 - 10.45 Grand Ballroom · Page 43 Coffee Break 14.00 11.00 Symposium Symposium Symposium Symposium The Critical Importance of Challenges in Drug and Device Disease Burden in Asia Social Innovation and Stratified Medicine to Global Regulation Entrepreneurship in Health Health Delivery 15.00 12.00 Page 48 Page 49 Symposium Symposium 11.15 - 13.15 Brain Drain - Workforce Innovations in Chronic Disease Page 36 Migration Control and Prevention in Asia 16.00 13.00 Page 44 Page 46 Page 50 Page 51 M8 Break Lunch Session Lunch Session Lunch Session Challenges and Opportunities in Com- Sustainable Corporate Engagement batting Malaria and its Socio-Economic The Role of IAMP in Global Health in Public Health Issues 14.00 Impact in the Asia-Pacific 13.30 - 14.15 Page 52 Page 53 Page 54 M8 Break Grand Ballroom Symposium Symposium Symposium Symposium 18.00 15.00 Medical Tourism Point of Care Diagnostics
    [Show full text]
  • MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling
    Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling MRC Centre for ANNUAL REPORT Outbreak Analysis and Modelling www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/outbreaks 2013-14 Director’s message Neil Ferguson This report is being published a year later than planned – a delay resulting from the last twelve months being some of the busiest in the MRC Centre’s now 6 year history. Following a very positive review of our progress by the MRC in late 2013, the Centre’s funding was renewed for a further 5 years. The continuing relevance of the MRC Centre’s mission was then underlined by events last year. Within a month of our 5th anniversary we were implemented. I would like to take the opportunity to approached by the Saudi Arabian government to recognise the huge commitment of time and effort assist them in risk analysis and modelling of the made by the researchers involved – an effort more newly resurgent outbreak of Middle East respiratory motivated by everyone’s desire to do something to syndrome (MERS) occurring in that country in spring help rather than the usual academic drive to publish 2014. Building on work completed the previous year, scientific papers. a team of 10 researchers was assembled to analyse While always remaining a core part of our mission, the real-time data coming from Saudi Arabia to outbreaks have only been one element of the MRC understand where transmission was occurring and to Centre activities in the last two years. This annual provide an assessment of the risk of large epidemics report highlights the substantial progress made by MRC being triggered by the mass gatherings of pilgrims to Centre researchers in improving understanding of the Umrah and the Hajj.
    [Show full text]
  • Statistical Mechanics of Viral-Immune Co-Evolution
    Préparée à l’École Normale Supérieure Statistical mechanics of viral-immune co-evolution Soutenue par Composition du jury : Jacopo Marchi Olivier, Martin Le 23/09/2020 INRAE Président du jury Martin, Weigt UPMC Rapporteur Ecole doctorale n° 564 Joshua, Weitz Physique en Île-de-France Georgia Institute of Technology Examinateur Aleksandra, Walczak École Normale Supérieure Directrice de thèse Spécialité Physique Thierry, Mora École Normale Supérieure Directeur de thèse ABSTRACT Evolution constrains organism diversity through natural selection. Here we build theoretical models to study the effect of evolutionary constraints on two natural systems at different scales: viral-immune coevolution and protein evolution. First we study how immune systems constrain the evolutionary path of viruses which constantly try to escape immune memory updates. We start by studying numerically a minimal agent based model with a few simple ingredients governing the microscopic interactions between viruses and im- mune systems in an abstract framework. These ingredients couple processes at different scales — immune response, epidemiology, evolution — that all together determine the evolutionary outcome. We find that the population of immune systems drives viruses to a set of interesting evolutionary patterns, which can also be observed in nature. We map these evolutionary strate- gies onto model parameters. Then we study a coarse-grained theoretical model for the evolution of viruses and immune receptors in antigenic space consisting of a system of coupled stochastic differential equations, inspired by the previous agent-based simulations. This study sheds light on the in- terplay between the different scales constituting this phylodynamic system. We obtain some analytical insights into how immune systems constrain viral evolution in antigenic space while viruses manage to sustain a steady state escape dynamics.
    [Show full text]
  • Abstracts 1251-1506 and Author Index
    380 1249 476 bpm, (p=0.0001) and stroke volume: 31.9 ± 9.3 vs. 39.2 ± 5.5 µl (p=0.03); therefore in cardiac output: 13.1 ± 3.5 vs. 18.7 ± 3.2 µl/min CONSIDERABLE PROPORTION OF LEISHMANIA BRAZILIENSIS (p=0.002). There are relevant susceptibility and hemodynamic differences RRNA MOLECULES ARE POLYADENYLATED between these strains of mice during acute chagasic infection. Further characterizations of heart tissue histopathology, immunohistochemistry Marlene Jara Portocarreo, Jorge Arevalo and gene expression will investigate possible host factor determinants for Instituto de Medicina Tropical Alexander von Humboldt, Lima, Peru acute chagasic myocarditis. Leishmania parasites are ancestral eukaryotes with unusual characteristics like polycistronic transcription and RNA trans-splicing. Like other 1250A eukaryotes, their RNA ribosomal genes are tandemly repeated and transcribed by RNA polymerase I. Unlike other eukaryotes, Leishmania QUANTITATIVE KDNA ASSESSMENT DURING TREATMENT OF ribosomes have rRNA molecules of 18S, 5.8S, and 28S, with the latter MUCOSAL LEISHMANIASIS AS A POTENTIAL BIOMARKER OF one being split into six rRNAs (α.γ, β, δ, ζ and ε). The polyadenylation OUTCOME is a post-transcriptional process well known for mRNA but scarcely Marlene Jara1, Braulio M. Valencia1, Milena Alba1, Vanessa Adaui1, reported for rRNA. Our previous work on L. braziliensis and L. donovani Jorge Arevalo1, Alejandro Llanos-Cuentas1, Andrea K. Boggild2 demonstrated that at least the rRNA 28S ε undergo the polyadenylation 1 2 process and that its relative abundance varies in Leishmania promastigote Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru, University of Toronto, and amastigote stages. To determine if all rRNA gene subunits are Toronto, ON, Canada subjected to polyadenylation, we evaluated the 18S rRNA, 5.8S rRNA and Mucosal leishmaniasis (ML) is a disfiguring manifestation of infection with all the subunits homolog to 28S rRNA at stationary and logarithmic phase Leishmania (Viannia) spp.
    [Show full text]
  • Annual Report and Financial Statements
    Financial year 2014 Annual Report and Financial Statements Contents Chairman’s Statement 02 Trustee’s Report 04 Vision and objects, mission, focus areas and 04 challenges Financial Review 05 Review of Past and Future Activities 09 Review of Investment Activities 15 Structure and Governance 26 Remuneration Report 32 Social Responsibility 34 Independent Auditors 36 Audit Committee Report 37 Independent Auditors’ Report 39 Consolidated Statement of Financial Activities 45 Consolidated Balance Sheet 46 Statement of Financial Activities of the Trust 47 Balance Sheet of the Trust 48 Consolidated Cash Flow Statement 49 Notes to the Financial Statements 50 Reference and Administrative Details 90 Chairman’s Statement The best research for better health Creating cultures for research who we are and what we do, and has at the frontiers of medicine helped us achieve an ever more and health integrated approach within. This was a challenging first year for The built environment is a huge our Director, Dr Jeremy Farrar. As a influence on the way we work. The clinician and a researcher with Francis Crick Institute, a partnership expertise across global health and between the Trust, the Medical infectious diseases, his skills were in Research Council, Cancer Research high demand, particularly when it UK and several of London’s became clear that the Ebola virus universities, opens next year. It, too, outbreak in West Africa this year was has been designed to encourage an epidemic of unprecedented interdisciplinary working. As well as proportion. At the same time, Jeremy enhancing research partnerships, the was listening carefully to the views of Crick will bring biomedical research We have streamlined the his new colleagues at the Wellcome together with clinical skills and many framework for our funding Trust and of the research community other scientific disciplines.
    [Show full text]
  • Curriculum Vitae Distinguished Professor of Entomology and Biology J. Lloyd & Dorothy Foehr Huck Chair of Epidemiology
    Curriculum vitae OTTAR NORDAL BJØRNSTAD Distinguished Professor of Entomology and Biology J. Lloyd & Dorothy Foehr Huck Chair of Epidemiology Department of Entomology, Tel. (814) 863-2983 501 ASI Bldg, Penn State University, Fax. (814) 865-3048 University Park, PA 16802 USA E-MAIL: [email protected] http://ento.psu.edu/research/labs/ottar-bjornstad/ottar-lab-about https://github.com/objornstad/ https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=X1sH8R0AAAAJ https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1158-3753 EDUCATION Institution Degree Year Field of study University of Oslo, Norway BSc 1991 Biology University of Oslo, Norway MSc 1993 Zoology University of Oslo, Norway Ph.D. 1997 Ecology PROFESSIONAL POSITIONS 2014-present J. Lloyd & Dorothy Foehr Huck Chair of Epidemiology, Pennsylvania State University. 2001-present Departments of Entomology, Biology and Statistics (Adjunct), Pennsylvania State University. Assistant Professor (‘01-‘05), Associate Professor (‘05-‘07), Professor (‘07-‘13), Distinguished Professor (’14-current) 2019-present Adjunct Senior Scientist, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, University of Oslo, Norway 2015-2018 Visiting Professor, Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, University of Tromsø, Norway 2004-2014 Senior Research Fellow, Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health 2008-2009 Visiting Professor, Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, Norway 2004-2009 Co-director, Center for Infectious
    [Show full text]
  • Katia Koelle - Curriculum Vitae
    Katia Koelle - Curriculum vitae RESEARCH Education: University of Michigan at Ann Arbor: Ph.D., 2001-2005 Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 2005, Host immunity and climate forcing in cholera dynamics and evolution Dr. Mercedes Pascual, advisor University of Michigan at Ann Arbor: Certificate in Complex Systems, 2003 2001-2003 Stanford University: B.S., Biological Sciences, 1997 1993-1997 Professional experience: Faculty member, Program in Microbiology and Molecular Genetics (MMG) 2018-present Emory University, Atlanta, GA Faculty member, Program in Population Biology, Ecology, and Evolution 2017-present Emory University, Atlanta, GA Associate Professor, Biology Department, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 2017-present Co-director, Theory and Modeling of Living System Initiative, Emory University 2018-present Associate Professor, Biology Department, Duke University, Durham, NC 2014-2017 Duke Global Health Institute Affiliate, Duke University, Durham, NC 2009-2017 Assistant Professor, Biology Department, Duke University, Durham, NC 2007-2014 Post-doctoral Fellow, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, 2006-2007 The Pennsylvania State University, Dr. Bryan Grenfell, advisor Research Scientist, Widevine Technologies, Seattle, WA and Ann Arbor, MI 1999-2001 Research Assistant, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, UCSF, CA 1998-1999 Awards, honors, and fellowships: Recipient of Duke Univ.’s Thomas Langford Lectureship Award 2015 Recipient of Popular Science’s Brilliant 10 award 2014 Elected to Faculty of 1000: Theoretical Ecology section 2009 Recipient of the PNAS Cozzarelli Prize 2008 Recipient of the Volterra Award for best oral presentation 2004 Awarded by the Theory Section of the Ecological Society of America (ESA) Recipient of the Rackham Outstanding Graduate Student Instructor Award 2004 University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI Recipient of the E.C.
    [Show full text]
  • 1 Challenges in Predicting Endemic Establishment Or Elimination Of
    Challenges in predicting endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens. C. Jessica E. Metcalf 1,2, Soa Fy Andriamandimby3, Rachel Baker1,4, Emma E. Glennon5, Katie Hampson6, T. Deirdre Hollingsworth7, Petra Klepac8, Amy Wesolowski9 1 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA 2 Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, USA 3 Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar 4 Princeton High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA. 5 Disease Dynamics Unit, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UK 6 Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK 7 Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, UK 8 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK 9Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA Abstract When a novel pathogen emerges there may be opportunities to eliminate transmission - locally or globally - whilst case numbers are low. However, the effort required to push a disease to elimination may come at a high cost at a time when uncertainty is high. Models currently inform policy discussions on this question, but there are a number of open challenges, particularly given unknown aspects of the pathogen biology, the effectiveness and feasibility of interventions, and the intersecting political, economic, sociological and behavioural complexities for a novel pathogen. In this overview, we detail how models might identify directions for better leveraging or expanding the scope of data available, for bounding the theoretical context of emergence relative to prospects for elimination, and for framing the larger economic, behavioural and social context.
    [Show full text]
  • Predictive Modeling of Influenza Shows the Promise Of
    Review Predictive Modeling of Influenza Shows the Promise of Applied Evolutionary Biology 1,9, 2,9 3,9 Dylan H. Morris, * Katelyn M. Gostic, Simone Pompei, 4 5 6 Trevor Bedford, Marta Łuksza, Richard A. Neher, 1,8 3 7 Bryan T. Grenfell, Michael Lässig, and John W. McCauley Seasonal influenza is controlled through vaccination campaigns. Evolution of Trends influenza virus antigens means that vaccines must be updated to match novel Seasonal influenza evolves to evade strains, and vaccine effectiveness depends on the ability of scientists to predict immune recognition, necessitating regular vaccine updates. The World nearly a year in advance which influenza variants will dominate in upcoming Health Organizationhas collaborated seasons. In this review, we highlight a promising new surveillance tool: predictive with academic institutions and national models. Developed through data-sharing and close collaboration between the public health organizations to build a global surveillance program for moni- World Health Organization and academic scientists, these models use surveil- toring influenza evolution. lance data to make quantitative predictions regarding influenza evolution. Pre- dictive models demonstrate the potential of applied evolutionary biology to Scientists have built predictive models grounded in evolutionary theory that improve public health and disease control. We review the state of influenza use surveillance data to forecast which predictive modeling and discuss next steps and recommendations to ensure viral strains or clades will predominate that these models deliver upon their considerable biomedical promise. in the coming months. Output from these models is already being used to inform influenza vaccine The Need to Predict Influenza Evolution strain selection. Influenza viruses annually cause large numbers of emergency room visits, hospitalizations, admissions to intensive care units, and deaths worldwide [1–6], as well as billions of dollars in This modeling sheds light on basic economic losses in the United States alone [2,7].
    [Show full text]