2015

Office of Population Research 2015 Annual Report Princeton University

People Seminars Research Publications Training Courses Table of Contents From the Director ……………………………………………….…...…. 3 OPR Staff and Students …………………………………………….…. 4 Center for Research on Child Wellbeing …………………..………. 11 Center for Health and Wellbeing ……………………………….……. 16 Center for Migration and Development …………………………….. 20 OPR Library ………………………………………………..…………….. 23 OPR Seminars ……………………………………………………..……. 26 OPR Research ………………………………………………….……….. 27 Biosocial Interactions ……………………………………………………. 27 Children, Youth, and Families ………………………...... ….…… 29 Data and Methods ………………………………………………..……… 31 Education and Stratification ………………………………..….……….. 42 Health and Wellbeing ……. …………………………………...... ……… 48 Migration and Development …………………………………...... ……… 54 2015 Publications …………………………………………..………….. 63 Working Papers …………………………………...... ….……... 63 Publications and Papers ………………………………..……….……… 63 Training in Demography at Princeton ……...... …….. 78 Ph.D. Program ………………………………………………………….... 78 Departmental Degree in Specialization in Population ……………….. 79 Joint-Degree Program …………………………………………………… 79 Certificate in Demography …………………………………………….… 79 Training Resources ………………………………………………..…….. 79 Courses …………………………………………………………………… 80

The OPR Annual report is OPR published annually by the Office of Population Research, Princeton University, Wallace Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544.

Copyright © 2016 Office of Population Research. From the Director

Douglas S. Massey, Director Elizabeth Sully joined New York’s Guttmacher Institute as a Senior Research Scientist; Edward Berchick assumed a Postdoctoral Fellowship at During 2015 the Office Duke University; Lauren Gaydosh became a of Population Research Postdoctoral Scholar at the Carolina Population celebrated its 79th year as a Center in Chapel Hill; Dennis Feehan was population center. Located in appointed Assistant Professor Demography at the Woodrow Wilson School, Berkeley; Megan Todd was appointed as a in that year it included some Postdoctoral Research Scientist in Columbia 30 faculty research associates, seven postdoctoral University’s Robert N. Butler Aging Center; and fellows, three visiting scholars, and 33 doctoral Laura Nolan joined her as a Postdoctoral Research students supported by a professional staff of Scientist at Columbia’s Population Research seven. During the calendar of 2015, OPR relied Center. upon the services of two directors. During the Spring of 2015 Douglas Massey continued his One of the most gratifying things about service as OPR Director but during the first being OPR Director is seeing our graduates’ semester of his 2015-2016 leave he was replaced remarkable record of success in beginning their by Noreen Goldman as Acting OPR Director. professional careers as demographers in the field’s leading institutions. I know the entire faculty As fate would have it, in that academic year joins me in wishing them continued good fortune OPR was hit by a tsunami of sabbaticals, and as their careers progress. joining Doug Massey on leave that year was Marta Tienda, Betsy Armstrong, and Tod Hamilton. In Douglas Massey, Director their absence, Alicia Adserà nobly stepped up to take Marta’s place as DGS for Population and German Rodriguez ably assumed the duties of teaching POP 502, the annual course in demographic methods. As always, order in the center was maintained through the superb administrative talents of Associate Director Nancy Office of Population Research Cannuli while Lynne Johnson provided support to Princeton University the graduate program.

Despite the scarcity of on-campus faculty, the graduate program continued training new demographers, producing no fewer than nine Ph.D.’s in 2015. Upon graduation, Kristin Bietsch went on to become a Research Associate of the Population Reference Bureau in Washington, DC; Diane Coffey became Executive Director of the Research Institute for Compassionate Economics and continued her work in India; Takudzwa Sayi accepted a Postdoctoral Fellowship at in the Department of Community and Family Health at the USF College of Public Health in Tampa;

Office of Population Research 3 OPR Staff and Students January – December 2015

Director João Biehl, Susan Dod Brown Professor of Douglas S. Massey Anthropology and Woodrow Wilson School Faculty Associate; Co-Director of Princeton’s Program in Director of Graduate Studies Global Health and Health Policy; Faculty Alícia Adserà Associate, the Office of Population Research, Center for Health and Wellbeing, Princeton Faculty Associates Institute of International and Regional Studies, Princeton Environmental Institute, Program in Alícia Adserà, Research Scholar and Lecturer in Latin American Studies, and the Program in Law Economics and International Affairs at the and Public Affairs. Ph.D., Anthropology, University Woodrow Wilson School; Director of Graduate of California, Berkeley, 1999, Ph.D., Religion, Studies, the Office of Population Research; Graduate Theological Union, Berkeley, 1996. Research Associate, Bendheim-Thoman Center for Interests: medical anthropology, social studies of Research on Child Wellbeing; Co-Director of the science and technology, global health, subjectivity, Princeton Global Network on Child Migration. ethnography and social theory (with a regional Ph.D., Economics, Boston University, 1996. focus on Latin America and Brazil). Interests: economic demography, development and Anne Case, Alexander Stewart 1886 Professor of international political economy. Some of her Economics and Public Affairs, Woodrow Wilson recent work focuses on how differences in local School; Director, Research Program in labor market institutions and economic conditions Development Studies; Faculty Associate, the Office are related to fertility and household formation of Population Research and the Center for Health decisions in the Organisation for Economic Co- and Wellbeing. Ph.D., Economics, Princeton operation and Development (OECD) and Latin University, 1988. Interests: microeconomic America. In addition, she is interested in an array foundations of development, health economics, of migration topics including: immigrant fertility; public finance, and labor economics. the relevance of language, political conditions and Janet M. Currie, Chair, Department of welfare provisions among the determinants of Economics; Henry Putnam Professor of Economics migration flows; the wellbeing of child migrants; and Public Policy; Director, Center for Health & and the differential labor market performance of Wellbeing; Faculty Associate, the Office of migrants across European countries. Population Research. Ph.D., Economics, Princeton Jeanne Altmann, Eugene Higgins Professor of University, 1988. Interests: health and wellbeing of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Emeritus; children including early intervention programs, Senior Scholar, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. expansions of public health insurance, public Ph.D., Behavioral Sciences, University of Chicago, housing, and food and nutrition programs. 1979. Interests: non-experimental research design Recently her interests are: socioeconomic and analysis, ecology and evolution of family differences in child health, and on environmental relationships and of behavioral development; threats to children’s health, and the long term primate demography and life histories, parent effects of poor health in early childhood. offspring relationships; infancy and the ontogeny Rafaela Dancygier, Assistant Professor of Politics of behavior and social relationships, conservation and Public and International Affairs, Woodrow education and behavioral aspects of conservation. Wilson School; Faculty Associate, the Office of Elizabeth Armstrong, Associate Professor of Population Research. Ph.D., Political Science, Yale Sociology and Public Affairs, Woodrow Wilson University, 2007. Interests: comparative politics School; Faculty Associate, the Office of Population (with a focus on the implications of ethnic diversity Research, Center for Health and Wellbeing, in advanced democracies), immigration, ethnic University Center for Human Values, and Center politics, ethnic conflict, and Western Europe. for Research on Child Wellbeing. Ph.D., Sociology Angus S. Deaton, Dwight D. Eisenhower Professor and Demography, University of Pennsylvania, of International Affairs; Professor of Economics 1998. M.P.A. Princeton University, 1993. Interests: and International Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School. sociology of medicine, sociology of reproduction, Ph.D., Economics, Cambridge University, 1974. population and health, history of medicine and Interests: economic inequality/poverty, wellbeing, public health, gender and bioethics. health, India, econometrics, microeconomics, and randomized trials.

Office of Population Research 4 OPR Staff and Students Annual Report 2015

Thomas Espenshade, Professor of Sociology, status, and health; immigrant health; and survey Emeritus; Lecturer with the rank of Professor in design. Sociology; Senior Scholar, the Office of Population Bryan Grenfell, Kathryn Briger and Sarah Fenton Research Ph.D., Economics, Princeton University, Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and 1972. Past research interests: concentrated on Public Affairs, Department of Ecology and social demography (with an emphasis on family Evolutionary Biology and Woodrow Wilson School; and household demography), contemporary U.S. Director, Health Grand Challenge Initiative; immigration, and diversity in higher education. Faculty Associate, Center for Health and Wellbeing Current interests: focused on the role of the home and the Office of Population Research. D. Phil., environment in the early origins of learning gaps Biology, University of York, 1980. Interests: and on how families build skills in their young Population biology; infectious diseases; pre-school children and get them ready to learn. phylodynamics. Patricia Fernández-Kelly, Senior Lecturer, Jean Grossman, Lecturer in Economics and Sociology; Faculty Associate, the Program in Law Public Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School. Ph.D., and Public Affairs; Research Associate, the Office Economics, Massachusetts Institute of of Population Research. Ph.D., Sociology, Rutgers Technology, 1980. She has spent her career University, 1981. Interests: international economic examining social programs of all kinds -- development, gender, class, race, and ethnicity, education, employment and training, welfare, migration, the global economy, and women and dropout prevention, teen pregnancy prevention, ethnic minorities in the labor force. health, after-school programs, mentoring and Susan Fiske, Eugene Higgins Professor of other youth programs -- tailoring the evaluation Psychology and Public Affairs, Department of designs to suit the demands of different program Psychology and Woodrow Wilson School; Faculty situations. Currently research interest: in-school Associate, the Office of Population Research. and out-of-school programs; youth policy; program Ph.D., Social Psychology, Harvard University, and policy evaluation; and poverty. 1978 with honorary doctorates from the Tod G. Hamilton, Assistant Professor of Universität Basel, Switzer, Université catholique Sociology; Faculty Associate, the Office of de Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium and the Universiteit Population Research; Member, Institute for Leiden, Netherlands. Interests: how stereotyping, Advanced Study, School of Social Science. Ph.D., prejudice, and discrimination are encouraged or Sociology, University of Texas, Austin, 2010. discouraged by social relationships, such as Interests: demography, immigration, health, race, cooperation, competition, and power. and labor market disparities. Frye, Margaret, joined the faculty in fall of 2015 Jeffrey Hammer, Charles and Marie Robertson as Assistant Professor of Sociology; Faculty Visiting Professor in Economic Development, Associate, the Office of Population Research. Center for Health and Wellbeing, Woodrow Wilson Ph.D., Sociology and Demography, University of School; Faculty Associate, the Office of Population California, Berkeley, 2013. Postdoctoral Fellow in Research. Ph.D., Economics, Massachusetts Sociology, Harvard University, 2013-2015; and a Institute of Technology, 1979. Interests: Global Scholar in the Successful Societies measuring and improving the quality of medical Program at the Canadian Institute for Advanced care (primarily in India), absenteeism of teachers Research. Her research connects cultural and health workers, policy-related determinants of understandings and behavioral outcomes during health status, and improving service delivery the transition to adulthood in sub-Saharan Africa. through better accountability mechanisms. She employs a variety of data sources and Douglas S. Massey, Henry G. Bryant Professor of methodological approaches, including in-depth Sociology and Public Affairs, Woodrow Wilson interviews, classroom observations, computational School; Director, the Office of Population text analysis, and sequence analysis. Research. Ph.D., Sociology, Princeton University, Noreen Goldman, Hughes-Rogers Professor of 1978. Interests: demography, urban poverty, race Demography and Public Affairs, Woodrow Wilson and housing, discrimination, stratification, School; Faculty Associate, the Office of Population methodology, biosociology, international Research. D.Sc., Population Sciences, Harvard migration, Latin American society (particularly University, 1977. Interests: social inequalities in Mexico). health; physiological linkages among stress, social

Office of Population Research 5 OPR Staff and Students January – December 2015

Sara S. McLanahan, William S. Tod Professor of survival analysis, multilevel models, demographic Sociology and Public Affairs; Director, Bendheim- and statistical computing, design and deployment Thoman Center for Research on Child Wellbeing; of databases on the web. Director, the Joint Degree Program in Social Policy Matthew Salganik, Professor of Sociology; Faculty (JDP). Editor-in-Chief, Future of Children; Interim Associate, the Office of Population Research, the Director, Education Research Section (ERS). Center for Information Technology Policy, Ph.D., Sociology, University of Texas, Austin, Sociology, Columbia University; Director, the 1979. Interests: family demography; poverty and Office of Population Research Computing Core. inequality; social policy; child wellbeing; gender Ph.D., Sociology, Columbia University, 2007. issues; race and ethnicity; and intergenerational Interests: social networks, sociology of culture, relationships. social inequality, social psychology, computational C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Assistant Professor of social science, quantitative methods, developing Ecology, Evolutionary Biology and Public Affairs, network-based statistical methods for studying Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology populations most at risk for HIV/AIDS, and web- and Woodrow Wilson School; Faculty Associate, based social data. the Office of Population Research. Ph.D., Biology, Brandon Stewart, Assistant Professor of Imperial College, London, 2005. Interests: Sociology; Faculty Associate, the Office of demography with broad interest in evolutionary Population Research and the Center for Digital ecology, infectious disease dynamics and public Humanities; Faculty Affiliate, Department of policy. Politics. Ph.D., Government, Harvard University, Elizabeth Levy Paluck, Professor of Psychology 2015. Interests: computational social science; text and Public Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School; John as data; and Bayesian statistics. Maclean Jr. Presidential University Edward Telles, Professor of Sociology, Princeton Preceptor. Ph.D., Social Psychology, Yale University and University of California; Director, University, 2007. Interests: prejudice and the Center for Migration and Development; Vice intergroup conflict reduction, political cultural President, the American Sociological Association; change, civic education, social norms and Principal Investigator for the Project on Ethnicity behavior, network and influence, social and Race in Latin America (PERLA). Ph.D., scientific methodology, psychology, and policy. Sociology, University of Texas, Austin, 1988. Alejandro Portes, Howard Harrison and Gabrielle Interests: race and ethnicity, social demography, Snyder Beck Professor of Sociology; Member of development, and urban sociology. Executive Committee, Center for Migration and Marta Tienda, Maurice P. During ‘22 Professor of Development; Faculty Associate, the Office of Demographic Studies; Professor of Sociology and Population Research and Program in Latin Public Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School; Founding American Studies; Research Professor, University Director, the Program in Latino Studies. Ph.D., of Miami. Ph.D., Sociology, University of Sociology, University of Texas, Austin, 1976. Wisconsin, Madison, 1970. Interests: the Interests: international migration, race and ethnic adaptation process of the immigrant second stratification, higher education, social generation in comparative perspective, the role of demography, inequality, and the formation of teen institutions on national development, romantic relationships using diaries administered transnational immigrant organizations and on smartphones. development in a comparative perspective and the James Trussell, Senior Research Demographer, determinants of socio-economic success among the Office of Population Research; Honorary disadvantaged children of immigrants. Fellow, Edinburgh University; Professor of Germán Rodríguez, Senior Research Economics and Public Affairs, Emeritus, Princeton Demographer, the Office of Population Research; University; Senior Fellow, the Guttmacher Lecturer in Public and International Affairs, Institute; Member of the Board of Directors of Woodrow Wilson School. Ph.D., Biostatistics, FIAPAC and the Women on Web Foundation; University of North Carolina, 1975. Interests: Deputy Editor, Contraception. Ph.D., Economics, statistical demography, the development and Princeton University, 1975. Interests: emergency application of statistical modeling techniques to contraception, contraceptive failure, and the cost- the study of human population - subject areas effectiveness of contraception. include fertility and health, fertility surveys,

Office of Population Research 6 OPR Staff and Students Annual Report 2015

Tom Saul Vogl, Assistant Professor of Economics Brandon G. Wagner, Postdoctoral Research and International Affairs, Department of Fellow. Ph.D., Sociology, University of North Economics and Woodrow Wilson School; Faculty Carolina, Chapel Hill, 2013. Interests: health, Associate, the Office of Population Research. fertility, family, methodology, causal inference, Ph.D., Economics, Harvard University, 2011. bio-social interplay. Interests: development economics, economic demography, economics of health and population, Visiting Scholars socioeconomic status and health, political economy. Jeanne Brooks-Gunn, Visiting Research Charles F. Westoff, Maurice P. During ’22 Collaborator; Virginia and Leonard Marx Professor Professor, Emeritus; Professor of Sociology, of Child Development and Education and Co- Emeritus; Senior Research Demographer, the Director of the National Center for Children and Office of Population Research. Ph.D., Sociology, Families, Teacher's College, Columbia University; University of Pennsylvania, 1953. Interests: Professor of Pediatrics, College of Physicians and population policy, comparative fertility in Surgeons, Columbia University. Ph.D., Human developing countries, fertility surveys, and family Learning and Development, University of planning. Pennsylvania, 1975. Interests: child development, child wellbeing, parenting, education, and poverty. Postdoctoral Fellows Nancy Reichman, Visiting Research Collaborator. Associate Professor of Pediatrics, Robert Wood Abigail Aiken, Postdoctoral Research Associate. Johnson Medical School. Ph.D., Economics, City Ph.D., Public Policy, University of Texas, Austin, University of New York, 1993. Interests: maternal 2014. Interests: reproductive health, with and child health, health disparities, socioeconomic particular emphasis on unintended pregnancy, status and health, economics of the family, data contraceptive desires and use, and family planning quality and measurement in social science and politics and policy. public health research. Louis J. Donnelly, Postdoctoral Research Magaly Sanchez-R, Senior Researcher and Associate, CRCW. Ph.D., Social Work, Rutgers Visiting Scholar. Professor, Instituto de University, 2015. Interests: neighborhood contexts Urbanismo, Universidad Central de Venezuela. and residential segregation, child poverty and Ph.D., Sociology, École des Hautes Études in educational inequality, family structure, and Sciences Sociales, University of Paris, 1980. nonresident father involvement. Interests: high skills immigrants in USA, violence Rachel Goldberg, Postdoctoral Research and international migration, violence and youths, Associate, CRCW. Ph.D., Sociology, Brown Latin America, Latino identity. University, 2012. Interests: family, social demography, gender, population health, life Administrative Staff course, data collection, advanced statistical methods, qualitative methods. Nancy Cannuli, Associate Director Jackelyn Hwang, Postdoctoral Research Fellow. Mary Lou Delaney, Program Assistant Ph.D., Sociology and Social Policy, Harvard Valerie Smith, Academic Assistant University, 2015. Interests: urban neighborhoods, Lynne Johnson, Graduate Program Administrator residential inequality, race and ethnicity, Regina Leidy, Communications Coordinator, immigration. CRCW Nicole K. Smith, Postdoctoral Research Associate. Joyce Lopuh, Purchasing and Accounts Ph.D., Health Behavior, Indiana University (School Administrator of Public Health), 2013. Interests: contraception, Kristen Matlofsky, Academic Assistant infertility, sexuality, and reproductive health. Kris McDonald, Program Manager, CRCW Katherine M. Tumlinson, Postdoctoral Research Tracy Merone, Administrative Support, CRCW Fellow. Ph.D., Epidemiology, University of North Judie Miller, Academic Assistant Carolina, Chapel Hill, 2014. Interests: Robin Pispecky, Grants Manager International family planning with a focus on Diana Sacké, Academic Assistant contraceptive continuation, quality of care, and adolescent pregnancy prevention.

Office of Population Research 7 OPR Staff and Students January – December 2015

Computing Staff Cheng Cheng, Department of Sociology, Entered fall 2012. B.A., Sociology, University of Wisconsin, Wayne Appleton, System Administrator, UNIX Madison, 2012. Interests: demography and aging. Systems Manager Elisha A. Cohen, Population and Social Policy Chang Y. Chung, Statistical Programmer and Program. Entered fall 2013. M.A., Economics, Data Archivist Hunter College, 2012; B.A., Economics, University Jennifer Curatola, Assistant System of Wisconsin, Madison, 2003. Interests: health Administrator disparities in the United States, demography, Dawn Koffman, Statistical Programmer social epidemiology, data visualization and quantitative methods. Library Staff Angela Dixon, Department of Sociology and Social Policy Program, Entered fall 2012. B.S., Elana Broch, Assistant Population Research Psychology and Political Science, University of Librarian North Carolina, Chapel Hill, 2011. Interests: Joann Donatiello, Population Research Librarian race/ethnicity, inequality, and comparative Tracy Hartman, Special Collections Assistant IV sociology. Nancy Pressman-Levy, Head Librarian, Donald E. Janeria Easley, Department of Sociology. Stokes Library Transferred in fall 2012; Entered fall 2011. B.A., Sociology and English, Duke University, 2011. Research/Technical Staff Interests: racial economic inequality, spatial inequality, and social mobility. Kelly Cleland, Research Specialist Kerstin Gentsch, Department of Sociology. Monica Espinoza Higgins, Project Manager, New Entered fall 2008. B.A., Economics and Immigrant Survey Linguistics & Language, Swarthmore College, Kate Jaeger, Project Director, CRCW 2005. Interests: social demography, migration Garrett T. Pace, Research Specialist, CRCW and immigration, social linguistics, and survey Karen Pren, Project Manager, Mexican Migration methodology. Project Leah L. Gillion, Department of Sociology. Entered Magaly Sanchez-R, Senior Researcher and fall 2013. M.A., Math Education, University of Visiting Scholar, Latin American Mexican Project Rochester, 2007; B.S., Economics, Florida A&M (LAMP) University, 2004. Interests: sociology of education, race and ethnicity, and public policy. Students Joanne Golann, Department of Sociology. Entered fall 2008. M.A. Social Sciences, University of Theresa Andrasfay, Program in Population Chicago, 2006; B.A. English, Amherst College, Studies, Entered fall 2014. B.A., Statistics, 2004. Interests: urban education, inequality, University of California, Berkeley, 2014. Interests: families, and ethnography. statistics, fertility, and infant mortality. Aaron J. Gottlieb, Department of Sociology. Etienne Breton, Program in Population Studies. Entered fall 2011. M.S., Social Welfare Policy, Entered fall 2013. M.S., Demography, University Columbia University, 2011; B.A., Public Affairs of Montreal, 2013; B.Sc., Anthropology, University and Political Science, Syracuse University, 2007. of Montreal, 2010. Interests: household and family Interests: crime and punishment, poverty and demography, anthropological demography and the inequality, social policy, and the family. social demography of India. Angelina Grigoryeva, Department of Sociology. Shuang Chen, Population and Social Policy Entered fall 2010. B.A. Sociology, Moscow State Program. Entered fall 2015. M.A., Education, University, Higher School of Economics, 2010. Stanford University, 2011; B.S., Mathematics, Interests: economic sociology, stratification, and Stanford University, 2010. Interests: sociology and quantitative methods. demography, migration, human capital and child development, survey research, metadata and microdata management.

Office of Population Research 8 OPR Staff and Students Annual Report 2015

Christopher Hale, Program in Population Studies. Celeste Marin, Program in Population Studies. Entered fall 2015. M.A., Urban Affairs, Loyola Entered fall 2013. M.P.H., International Health University, 2014; B.A., History and Economics, and Development, Tulane University, 2000; B.A., University of York, 2009. Interests: history, Government and Foreign Affairs and Latin economics, public policy, urban planning and American Studies, University of Virginia, 1992. international affairs. Interests: health disparities, global reproductive Mariana Campos Horta, Department of Sociology. epidemiology, and research methods for hard-to- Entered fall 2011. B.A., Interdisciplinary Studies, measure demographic outcomes and hidden University of California, Berkeley, 2007. Interests: populations. inequality, migration, ethnicity, and health and Zitsi Mirakhur, Population and Social Policy educational outcomes. Program. Entered fall 2011. B.A., Comparative Patrick Ishizuka, Department of Sociology. Human Development, University of Chicago, 2008. Entered fall 2010. B.A. Philosophy, Santa Clara Interests: sociology of education, poverty, University, 2004. Interests: gender, work-family inequality, and urbanization. issues, and inequality. Joel J. Mittleman, Department of Sociology. Sarah A. James, Department of Sociology. Entered fall 2013. M.A., Comparative Education, Entered fall 2012. B.A., Sociology, Rice University, University of London, 2012; B.A., Economics, 2012. Interests: social demography, family and Swarthmore College, 2009. Interests: the sociology child wellbeing, and integrating biological/genetic of education, race, and stratification. and social science research. Sophie C. Moullin, Department of Sociology. Daniela R. Urbina Julio, Department of Sociology Entered fall 2013. M.A., Quantitative Methods in and Social Policy Program. Entered fall 2015. the Social Sciences, Columbia University, 2012; M.A., Applied Quantitative Research, New York B.A., Social and Political Science, University of University, 2015; B.A., Sociology, Pontificia Cambridge, 2005. Interests: family demography, Universidad Católica de Chile, 2011. Interests: stratification, and mental health. demography and inequality, with a special interest Ryan O’Mara, Population and Social Policy in the impact of marriage patterns and family Program. Entered fall 2014. M.S., Social Science structure on inequality. (Health Behavior), University of Florida, 2009; Hannah M. Korevaar, Population and Social B.S., Education, University of Florida, 2002. Policy Program. B.A., Mathematics and American Interests: inequality, health and wellbeing, social Studies, Wesleyan University, 2014. Interests: policies and programs optimization to improve American Studies, African American Studies, public health and welfare. urban policy and planning, data analysis and Federica Querin, Population and Social Policy social justice. Program. Entered fall 2014. M.S., Economics and Ian D. Lundberg, Department of Sociology and Demography, Bocconi University, 2013; B.A., Social Policy Program. Entered fall 2015. B.A., Economics, Bocconi University, 2011. Interests: Sociology and Statistics, Harvard University, 2015. family, low fertility in the European context, and Interests: gender, families, labor markets, social social demography. demography and methodology, with specific focus Emilce A. Santana, Department of Sociology. on causal inference and on the impact of labor- Entered fall 2013. B.A., Sociology, University of market inequalities on families and of families on Pennsylvania, 2013. Interests: immigration, social labor-market inequality. stratification, and race/ethnicity. Ayesha S. Mahmud, Population and Social Policy Jonathan C. Tannen, Woodrow Wilson School. Program. Entered fall 2012. B.A., Physics and Entered fall 2011. M.S.Ed., Education, University Economics, Carleton College, 2009. Interests: of Pennsylvania, 2009; B.S., Physics and Math, infectious disease modeling, population dynamics, Harvard, 2007. Interests: the internal structure of infectious disease transmission, and impact of the cities, segregation, youth development and HIV epidemic on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. mathematical modeling of emergent structures.

Office of Population Research 9

OPR Staff and Students January – December 2015

Saul Thorkelson, Department of Sociology. Entered fall 2010. M.Sc., Human Geography, Umeå University, Sweden, 2010; B.A., Evolutionary Biology, Columbia University, 2007. Interests: international migration, inequality, race and ethnic studies, comparative sociology. Amy K. Winter, Program in Population Studies. Entered fall 2011. M.P.H., Public Health, Emory University, 2011; B.A., International Relations and History, University of Georgia, 2007. Interests: human demography and infectious disease dynamics. Melanie Wright-Fox, Department of Sociology. Entered fall 2011. A.B., Public Policy and Theater Studies, Duke University, 2009. Interests: how neighborhoods and families contribute to social inequalities and in social policies that mitigate early-life disadvantage. Jiayi J. Xu, Department of Sociology. Entered fall 2015. B.A., Sociology and Public Affairs, University of Chicago, 2014. Interests: intragroup variation, especially how this may be affected by spatial inequality. Jessica Yiu, Department of Sociology. Entered fall 2008. M.A., Sociology, University of Toronto, 2008; B.A., Sociology, University of Toronto, 2006. Interests: immigration, race and ethnic relations, and network analysis.

Office of Population Research 10 Center for Research on Child Wellbeing

The mission of The Bendheim-Thoman Center for researchers to Princeton during sabbatical years Research on Child Wellbeing (CRCW) is to promote and hires postdoctoral researchers for two-year basic research, train young scholars, and inform terms. Because Princeton is a small university practitioners and policy makers about ways to that does not have professional schools, CRCW improve the wellbeing of children and youth. uses their visitors program to expand the number CRCW, directed by Sara McLanahan, William S. of resident faculty with expertise on families and Tod Professor of Sociology and Public Affairs, is children. Since the founding of the Center, Jeanne affiliated with the Office of Population Research Brooks-Gunn has held an unpaid visitor’s and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and appointment at CRCW. Dr. Brooks-Gunn, who is International Affairs, Princeton University. on the faculty at Teachers College, Columbia CRCW’s faculty and research associates include University, spends several days a month in sociologists, economists, psychologists, residence at CRCW and is a co-PI on the Fragile demographers, molecular biologists and legal Families Study and a member of the advisory scholars. They are multi-institutional as well as board of the Future of Children. Dr. Brooks-Gunn interdisciplinary; their three major initiatives participates in CRCW activities and provides involve collaborations with researchers at other advice to faculty, postdocs, and graduate students universities and research organizations. Finally, interested in parenting and early child visitors and postdocs play an important role in the development. Center’s intellectual life. CRCW Hosted Several Visitors in 2015: CRCW’s major research project is the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (FFS), a Nancy Reichman, Economist and Professor of longitudinal, birth cohort study of approximately Pediatrics, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, 5,000 children, which is in its 15th year of data visited the Center for Health and Wellbeing (CHW) collection and is funded by the National Institute and CRCW for the entire academic year. Reichman of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD), supervises senior theses for the Economics the National Science Foundation (NSF), and a Department and is co-PI of the Fragile Families’ consortium of over 15 private foundations. Their Medical Record Add-on Study, which abstracted second project, The Future of Children (FOC), is a information from the mothers’ medical records at journal with a strong outreach and dissemination the time of the birth. Her work focuses on the component that focuses on policies affecting effects of children on parents’ health and children and youth. FOC is supported by grants wellbeing. This year, she was on assignment with from private foundations and by the Woodrow us as an issue editor for the Future of Children Wilson School. Through 2015, the journal has journal on the subject of Promoting Child Health. published 21 volumes; one short research piece; one volume is in press, and three more are in the Jani Turnunen, Visiting Student Research pipeline. Their third project, is now a fully Collaborator and a Ph.D. student in Sociological developed multidiscipline graduate program called Demography, the Stockholm University visited the Joint Degree Program in Social Policy (JDP). CRCW in the fall of 2015 with a research focus on Established in 2007, the Joint Degree Program is family, family structure, child custody and social a collaborative effort of the Woodrow Wilson demography. During his visit he worked with the School of Public and International Affairs and the Fragile Families Data and was mentored by Sara departments of Politics, Psychology, Population McLanahan. Studies, Sociology, and Economics under the direction of Sara McLanahan. Nazli Baydar Associate Professor, Koc University, Istanbul, Turkey visited for the 2015-2016 An essential component of CRCW is their visiting academic year. Areas of interest: theoretical and fellows program, which brings junior and senior empirical developmental research on transition

Office of Population Research

11 Center for Research on Child Wellbeing Annual Report 2015 from early childhood to middle childhood, risk and on related projects with Princeton colleagues. One protective factors in diverse ecological contexts, article on neighborhood disadvantage and applied research on universal, and selective telomere length, led by author Doug Massey and preventive interventions. She worked on several Brandon Wagner, is to be presented at the papers with Sara McLanahan and CRCW International Sociology Association meeting and associates while here. has been accepted to the Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences. Donnelly will remain CRCW hosted three postdoctoral fellows in with CRCW for another year and will contribute to 2015: the planning and development of future waves of survey data collection for the Fragile Families and Rachel Goldberg, received her Ph.D. in Sociology Child Wellbeing Study. from Brown University in 2012 and was a postdoctoral fellow with CRCW from 2012-2015. Research: Her research focused on family influences on youth health and wellbeing. In 2013, she was The Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study granted a two-year NIH F32 individual postdoctoral fellowship for research on links The Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study is between nativity, family, and youth reproductive following a birth cohort study of approximately health. After she completed the F32 fellowship, 5,000 children born in large U.S. cities between Goldberg began a tenure-track Assistant Professor 1998 and 2000. The study includes a large over- position in Sociology, University of California, sample of children born to unmarried parents and Irvine in the fall of 2015. is especially useful for studying the health and development of children in low income families. Brandon Wagner, received his Ph.D. in 2013 from Both mothers and fathers were interviewed shortly the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill in after the birth of their child and again when the Sociology. He joined CRCW as a postdoctoral child was one, three, five, nine, and fifteen years of research associate in CRCW in 2015 after 2 years age. with OPR. His research interests are health, family, methodology, causal inference and 2015 was a good year for FF with the most biosocial interplay. He is currently developing a publications ever in a year and a large increase of number of projects with recently collected data on people registering for the public data. Over 6,000 telomere length while working on the Fragile researchers have registered to use the public data, Families and Child Wellbeing Study. He recently and there have been 390 restricted-use and co-authored several articles that were published in contract data users. Overall, over 550 articles Social Science and Medicine, PlosOne and Journal have been published or are forthcoming in peer- of Sex and Marital Therapy. In 2015, Wagner reviewed journals. There are 45 books or book secured a position for fall of 2016 in the chapters using the FFS as a primary data source. Department of Sociology, Anthropology, and Social CRCW also has a series of 85 working papers Work, Texas Tech University. posted on their website. In 2015, five dissertations were completed using the data; to date Louis Donnelly, received his Ph.D. in Social Work approximately 85 dissertations have used the FFS in 2015 from Rutgers, The State University of New data. Jersey. He joined CRCW as a postdoctoral research associate in the fall of 2105. Donnelly’s Year 15 Wave research interests are: neighborhood contexts and residential segregation, child poverty and Data collection for the Year 15 round of interviews educational inequality, family structure, and is nearing a successful completion. The goal was nonresident father involvement. He has several to interview 90% of the mothers and teens that articles in progress and has led the identification participated in the Year 9 survey. To date, the and acquisition of supplemental contextual data survey contractor, WESTAT, has interviewed 3,254 for use with the Fragile Families and Child mothers and 3,142 teens, resulting in response Wellbeing Study. Donnelly has also collaborated rates of 90% and 87% respectively. In addition, the

Office of Population Research

12 Center for Research on Child Wellbeing Annual Report 2015

Columbia Population Research Center is Risky Behavior in Adolescence,” which focuses on attempting to interview mothers and teens that the association between children's exposure to participated in earlier waves but did not complete multiple forms of violence and risky health the Year 9 survey. To date, CPRC has interviewed behaviors, such as unsafe sex and substance use 77 mothers and 58 teens. Taking account of both and (2) “Neighborhood Collective Efficacy and survey operations, CRCW has completed Adolescent Mental Health,” which focuses on the interviews with 71% of the mothers inter-viewed at association between children's exposure to birth. WESTAT will most likely shut down data neighborhood collective efficacy and mental health collection in June; Columbia will continue their during adolescence (depression and anxiety). interviews through the end of 2016. Active data collection for the collaborative study, the Additionally the Fragile Families Study Co-PIs, Adolescent Sleep Study (funded by NICHD and led Sara McLanahan and Irwin Garfinkel, worked on a by Lauren Hale, Stony Brook University and Orfeu book examining the effects of the Great Recession Buxton, Penn State University), is also now on families and children. This book, Children and finished. The study collected hip and wrist the Great Recession, was completed and is being actigraph data (which measure movement during released by Russell Sage Foundation in August the day and at night) and web-based survey data 2016. in a “daily diary” format, from ~1,000 teens for one week following the home visit. Translational Activities:

Three other collaborative studies are ongoing. The The Future of Children Project and Child and Effects of Poverty on Affective Development: A Multi- Family Blog level, Longitudinal Study (funded by NIMH and led by Colter Mitchell and researchers at the The Future of Children Journal, a joint project of University of Michigan), has collected brain the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton imaging data on 185 children in the Detroit and University and the Brookings Institution, Toledo samples and will continue activities translates the best social science research on a throughout 2016. Lab work continues for the given topic into information that is useful to policy Gene-Environment Interaction Study (funded by makers and practitioners. The journal currently NICHD and led by Dan Notterman, Princeton publishes two issues each year, along with a policy University, Molecular Biology Department and brief and various ancillary pieces. Topics range Colter Mitchell, University of Michigan). Finally, widely – from income policy to family to education the Smartphone Study of Teen Relationships (led by and health – with child wellbeing as the unifying Marta Tienda and Rachel Goldberg, University of element. The journal reaches more than 20,000 California, Irvine) was reviewed by NICHD in readers through a distribution list unique to each February but not funded. The PIs will continue topic, and its findings are promoted through the piloting cases with seed funding from the Center web and outreach events in Washington DC, New for Health and Wellbeing as they look for other York City, Princeton, and around the country. sources of funding for the study. Outreach activities include a practitioners’ conference, Congressional briefings, press CRCW made good progress on the Beating the conferences, university lectures and courses, and Odds Project, funded by the Robert Wood Johnson stakeholders’ seminars. All volumes are available Foundation as part of their “cultures of health,” free of charge at www.futureofchildren.org. initiative. The project aims to: (1) identify teens who are “beating the odds” (doing much better The senior editorial team of the Future of Children than expected, given their family backgrounds) represents two institutions and multiple and 2) identify the family, neighborhood, school, disciplines. Editor-in-Chief Sara McLanahan is the and city characteristics that account for their Director of the Center for Research on Child success. Two abstracts from this project were Wellbeing and the William S. Tod Professor of recently submitted to a special issue of Health Sociology and Public Affairs, Princeton University. Affairs: (1) “Childhood Exposure to Violence and Senior Editors include: Ron Haskins, Senior

Office of Population Research 13 Center for Research on Child Wellbeing Annual Report 2015

Fellow and Co-Director of the Center on Children state’s leading children’s hospital, in and Families, Brookings Institution and a Senior Birmingham—to present findings from the Child Consultant, Annie E. Casey Foundation; Cecila Health issue at two con-current events in July Rouse, Dean of Princeton University’s Woodrow 2015. During the hospital’s grand rounds, issue Wilson School of Public and International Affairs co-editor Nancy Reichman gave more than 200 and the Lawrence and Shirley Katzman and Lewis pediatricians an overview of the issue, focusing on and Anna Ernst Professor in the Economics of the question “How Healthy Are Our Children?” Education, Professor of Economics and Public both nationally and in Alabama. Next, Food Affairs; Janet Currie, Henry Putnam Professor of Insecurity research report co-author Jim Ziliak Economics and Public Affairs, Woodrow Wilson and a panel of local nutrition advocates explored School and Director, Center for Health and childhood food insecurity and innovative child Wellbeing; and Isabel Sawhill, Senior Fellow and nutrition programs in front of an audience of Co-Director of the Center on Children and several hundred social workers, nutritionists, and Families, Brookings Institution and the Cabot other practitioners. These events received Family Chair. prominent coverage in the Birmingham media. Reichman later gave a version of her presentation Production during grand rounds at Robert Wood Johnson University Hospital in New Brunswick, NJ. The journal has published two issues in 2015: Marriage and Child Wellbeing Revisited and CRCW also sent representatives to the conferences Policies to Promote Child Health. Four more issues of such organizations as the Association for Public are in progress: Children and Climate Change Policy Analysis and Management, the Population (Spring 2016), Starting Early: Education Pre-K to 3 Association of America, the Network on Child (Fall 2016), Socioemotional Learning (Spring 2017) Protection and Well-Being, the Society for Social and The Justice System and the Reproduction of Work and Research, and the Military Child Inequality (Spring 2018). The Marriage and Child Education Coalition (MCEC). At MCEC’s National Wellbeing Revisited issue represented a unique Training Seminar in July 2015, practitioners return, after ten years, to a topic vitally important working with military children took all of CRCW’s that underscores the work of CRCW and the remaining copies of the Military Children and Fragile Families Study. Families issue— a milestone in that it was the first time CRCW completely ran out of an issue of the CRCW’s outreach and dissemination efforts have journal. This spring, MCEC paid for a new print included events at Brookings Institution related to run of 100 copies to use in their own training the Marriage and Child Health issues: The Promise work. Also this spring, Sara McLanahan and of Birth Control on October 14, 2015 and Can senior editor Ron Haskins participated in a Capitol States Improve Children’s Health by Preventing Hill Briefing for policymakers sponsored by the Abuse and Neglect? on May 5, 2015, as well as a American Academy of Political and Social Science conference for practitioners at Princeton called on the topic of policies that affect working-class Policies to Promote Child Health: Ways in Which families. Schools and Communities Can Promote Child Wellness on May 20, 2015. The practitioner The international Child and Family Blog, developed conferences at Princeton are organized through in partnership with a group at Cambridge the Education Research Section (ERS). This spring University and the Jacobs Foundation, went live in and summer, instead of the traditional conference 2014. It presents accurate, accessible information at Princeton, ERS will partner with the about important child and family research. CRCW Sustainable Jersey for Schools program to is now featuring, from each issue of Future of participate and disseminate the Climate Change Children, a condensed version of two of the issue. articles, written by their managing editor and the article’s author together. For an example, see In another innovative outreach partnership, http://childandfamilyblog.com/children-marriage- CRCW worked with Children’s of Alabama—the do-better-why. In the past year, the blog has also

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14 Center for Research on Child Wellbeing Annual Report 2015 featured pieces by FOC editor-in-chief Sara papers into contributions appropriate for the top McLanahan disciplinary journals and other high-visibility (http://childandfamilyblog.com/family-instability- venues. The seminar focuses on student papers boys-girls ) and senior editor Janet Currie drafted in the prior year (typically in conjunction (http://childandfamilyblog.com/leaded-paint- with the empirical paper requirement of their school-achievement ). home discipline) and features extensive feedback and written comments from each of the students For more details about the ongoing work of the and the course instructor. In addition, a blog, visit http://childandfamilyblog.com distinguished visitor who specializes in the student’s area of research is invited to Princeton Joint Degree Program in Social Policy (JDP) the week the student presents to provide specialized feedback on their paper. CRCW is in the third year of managing the Joint Degree Program in Social Policy (JDP), a The JDP program includes approximately 48 collaborative effort of the Woodrow Wilson School students: 4% from economics, 29% from politics, and the departments of Politics, Psychology, 15% from population studies, 35% from sociology, Population Studies, Sociology, and Economics. and 17% from psychology. Students who have JDP students are awarded doctoral degrees in completed the Joint Degree Program have been Politics and Social Policy, Psychology and Social placed in prestigious postdoctoral (Duke Policy, and Population Studies and Social Policy, University, Columbia University, Massachusetts and Sociology and Social Policy. A non-degree Institute of Technology, University College London, granting fellowship program is available for Lehigh University, University of Michigan, and students in Economics in their third year and University of California, Berkeley) and faculty beyond. The program follows a discipline-plus positions (Cornell School of Policy Analysis and structure. Students complete all of the Management, Duke University School of Public requirements of their disciplinary departments. Policy, Drexel University Faculty of Law, the The "plus" involves a program in which the University of Waterloo, and University of students from the different departments come California, Berkeley). together to study the problem of economic and social inequality in advanced post-industrial In addition to the JDP, CRCW sponsors and staffs societies and the developing world. The program is graduate and undergraduate courses on topics designed to appeal to students who want to such as: child poverty, social inequality, program pursue academic careers in traditional disciplinary design and evaluation, child health and education departments, but also are committed to the study and immigrant children. of social issues of public importance. For more information on the CRCW, please see The core coursework of the program begins with a http://crcw.princeton.edu one-year social policy seminar series that exposes students to the substantive contributions and methodological approaches that Economics, Politics, Psychology and Sociology have made to the study of inequality: from the micro-elements of interpersonal perception, judgment and decision- making, to the more macro institutional contexts of family structure, neighborhoods, schools, labor markets and political institutions.

During the fall semester of their second year in the program, students participate in the Advanced Empirical Seminar. The primary purpose of this course is to enable students to hone research

Office of Population Research 15 Center for Health and Wellbeing

The Center for Health and Wellbeing (CHW) is an health and wellbeing. This includes undergraduate interdisciplinary center that seeks to foster and graduate courses and certificates in health research and teaching on the multiple aspects of and health policy, grants for students to conduct health and wellbeing in both developed and health-related research, and student-oriented developing countries. CHW is home to two centers events such as lunch seminars, career panels and funded by the National Institutes of Health—one public lectures. on the economics and demography of aging, and another on the measurement of subjective The Undergraduate Certificate in Global Health wellbeing. CHW oversees the graduate certificate and Health Policy (GHP) is an interdepartmental program in Health and Health Policy, the program in which undergraduates can study the undergraduate certificate program in Global determinants, consequences, and patterns of Health and Health Policy, and the University’s disease across societies; the role of medical Health Grand Challenge program, which supports technologies and interventions in health interdisciplinary research and teaching on improvements; and the economic, political, and infectious disease. CHW currently has 46 faculty social factors that shape domestic and global associates drawn from the fields of African public health. American studies, anthropology, demography, The Graduate Certificate in Health and Health East Asian studies, ecology and evolutionary Policy trains graduate students for careers in biology, epidemiology, economics, history, global health-related areas in the public and not-for- security, human values, molecular biology, profit sectors. The program is designed for neuroscience, politics, psychology, public affairs, students with domestic and international health and sociology. The associates are involved in a interests and provides both broad training in core wide range of research projects on health, topics in health and health policy as well as wellbeing, and public policy. In 2015, Ilyana courses in specialized areas. Kuziemko (Economics) joined Janet Currie as a co- director of CHW, and Andrea Graham (Ecology The Master in Public Policy (MPP) Program for and Evolutionary Biology) became a co-director of Physicians trains students who aspire to careers CHW’s Global Health Program. that blend medicine and public policy in both developed and developing countries, and provides Visiting Fellows medical professionals with the tools required to be effective in public sector positions. The Center for Health and Wellbeing (CHW) hosts visiting researchers each year and also has a CHW provides grants and internships to Princeton postdoctoral fellows program. CHW supports undergraduates and graduate students researchers from a variety of disciplines who work conducting research on the multiple aspects of on the multiple aspects of health and wellbeing in health and wellbeing, in the U.S. and overseas. both developed and developing countries. Visitors usually spend an academic year or a semester in Notable Highlights from 2015 residence at Princeton, during which time they conduct research and participate in conferences,  Supported eight new faculty research seminars, and other CHW events. Visitors have projects on domestic and international the opportunity to teach in the Woodrow Wilson health through the Program on U.S. Health School. Policy and the Health Grand Challenge, covering topics such as: medication for Teaching ADHD, epidemiology of antibiotic use in U.S. hospitals, hospital closures in New CHW supports several programs designed to Jersey, measles and rubella in Madagascar, enhance students’ opportunities to learn about

Office of Population Research 16 Center for Health and Wellbeing Annual Report 2015

pollution, early-life health and child Piot, director of the London School of development in developing countries. Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and a microbiologist known for research into  Hosted six Global Health Colloquia: Grand Ebola and AIDS; Raj Panjabi, co-founder Challenges in Global Mental Health: and chief executive officer, Last Mile Health; Integration in Research, Policy, and Practice; Mary Robinson, former President of Ireland, The War on Drugs that Wasn't: Narcotic Founder of the Mary Robinson Foundation- Apartheid in the Prescription Opioid Climate Justice, and United Nations special 'Epidemic'; Critical Global Health: How the envoy for climate change; and Princeton Ebola Outbreak Called Global Health University’s Angus Deaton, recent winner of Science, Politics, and Care into Question; the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. Mapping Immunity: Dynamics of Herd Protection and Consequences for Public  CHW affiliates participated as panelists in Health; On the Radar: Police Brutality, two forums held during the 2015 reunions Politics and Public Health; Health and for alumni and faculty: Mental Health in China: Four Decades of Observations. o “The Health of Healthcare”. The forum moderator was CHW affiliate  Hosted one Princeton Seminar on Global Heather Howard, Director, State Health: "Beyond the Doctor's Office: Health Reform Assistance Network. Improving Health Outcomes in the U.S. Panelists were: Steven G. Gabbe through Non-Medical Services" featuring '65, Senior vice president for Health Heather Howard, Director of the State Sciences for The Ohio State Health Reform Assistance Network and University and Emeritus CEO of OSU Lecturer at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wexner Medical Center; Chris Wilson School, Terri Jackson, Senior Vice Feudtner '85, Professor of Pediatric, President of Rabin Martin, and Patricia Medical Ethics & Health Policy, The Doykos, Director of the Bristol-Myers Children's Hospital of Philadelphia Squibb Foundation. These seminars are in and The Perelman School of Medicine collaboration with global health strategy at the University of Pennsylvania; firm Rabin Martin. The series convenes Ted Kyi '90, SVP, Business members of academe, the private sector, Intelligence & Analytics, Matrix civil society and concerned members of the Medical Network; Lauren community to explore issues around (Brinkmeyer) Goebel ’00, Vice improving global health quality, equity and President, Transformation and access in a multi-disciplinary, multi- Organizational Development, Rush sectoral context. Health.

 CHW played a central role in the planning o “ObamaCare: Can it be Fixed or and execution of the Princeton-Fung Global Should it be Repealed?” – featuring Forum “Modern Plagues: Lessons Learned Avik Roy and CHW affiliate Uwe from the Ebola Crisis," held on November 2- Reinhardt 3, 2015 in Dublin, Ireland. The Forum brought together researchers, scholars,  CHW co-sponsored the forum "Humanistic policymakers and health officials to Approaches to Mental Health Care in an Age examine West Africa's Ebola outbreak as a of Biological Psychiatry" with Andrew case study of a modern plague. Keynote Solomon, Author and Activist. Panelists speakers included: Margaret Chan, included: João Biehl, Department of director-general of the World Health Anthropology, Princeton; Ronald Comer, Organization; Jeremy Farrar, director of the Department of Psychology, Princeton; Tanya Welcome Trust and professor of tropical Luhrmann, Department of Anthropology, medicine at the University of Oxford; Peter

Office of Population Research 17 Center for Health and Wellbeing Annual Report 2015

Stanford University. Moderated by Amy  Co-sponsored ten lunch seminars for Borovoy, East Asian Studies and students and faculty covering topics such Anthropology (associated), Princeton. as: rural medicine, global health architecture, innovations in primary care, Other Events: children born with HIV, practicing medicine and health policy, mHealth innovations to 2/18/15 "Molecular epidemiology and drug digital health systems, Princeton’s MenB resistance of Chagas disease agent outbreak, a conversation with Kathleen Trypanosome cruz in Colombia" – Sebelius, and aging in China. Professor Omar Triana, Biology and Control of Infectious Diseases Group,  Hosted a symposium in which students University of Antioquia, Medellin, presented on their CHW-supported Colombia internships and research projects. The event included poster presentations and 2/25/15 “Resistance: the Film” – film screenings of short films, all developed by screening and panel discussion with students whose work was sponsored by Michael Graziano, Laura Kahn, Aude CHW. Teillant  Continued collaboration with the Oxford 4/8/15 “Underreported and Overperforming: University Clinical Research Unit, based in How one nonprofit is escalating a Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Activities little-known issue to help the world’s include joint research projects and poorest women” – Kate Grant exchanges of faculty, postdoctoral researchers and students between the two 5/4/15 "Code Black" film screening and institutions. panel discussion with Dr. Osman Sayan '87 and Dr. Craig Gronczewski  Provided $13,080 in graduate research grants through the Program on U.S. Health  Partnered with the Future of Children Policy. This funding supported four journal to produce a special issue on graduate students’ dissertation research on preventing children’s health problems. domestic health care and health policy. Highlights from the volume were presented and discussed at the May 2015 Conference  Created, identified and/or co-sponsored 49 “Policies to Promote Child Health: Ways in undergraduate health internship Which Schools and Communities Can opportunities for summer 2015; matched Promote Child Wellness. students to placements and funding through individual consultations and  Co-sponsored, with Research Program in formal application processes; and provided Development Studies, 22 lunch seminars intensive training and advising on protocols for students and faculty, covering topics and practices for independent such as: the impact of a disease epidemic undergraduate researchers. on the urban landscape, incentives in prescription drug choice, privatized health Highlights of health internships with insurance, race and the geography of o global partners include: Bixby Center healthcare, lead exposure and the for Global Reproductive Health, U.S.; black/white test score gap, the economics Centers for Disease Control and of death ceilings, political transitions in Prevention, U.S.; Empirical Research Haiti, patterns of health in the U.S., India’s in Political Economy, Benin; Emzingo child labor ban. Global Impact Fellowship, South Africa; Humanitarian Organization for Home Economics (HOME),

Office of Population Research 18 Center for Health and Wellbeing Annual Report 2015

Singapore; Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Vietnam; Philani Centre, South Africa; Telethon Kids Institute, Australia; U.S. Department of State-Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration.

 Invested $60,395 to sponsor 27 undergraduate thesis research projects for the summer of 2015.

o Funding recipients worked in 11 countries, including: Canada, China, Colombia, France, Kenya, Panama, Peru, South Africa, Taiwan, Uganda, and the U.S.

 Provided $1,008 to three students to attend health-related conferences and meetings.

For more information about CHW, see www.princeton.edu/chw.

Office of Population Research 19 Center for Migration and Development

The Center for Migration and Development (CMD) Americas Barometer. An innovative feature of promotes scholarship, original research, and these surveys is the introduction of a skin color intellectual exchange among faculty and students measure for the entire population, in which color with an interest in international migration and is found to be at least as important for national development. The Center for Migration understanding inequalities as ethnoracial self- and Development (CMD) sponsors a wide array of identification. The multinational team of PERLA research, travel, and conference programs aimed researchers has produced a book, Pigmentocracies: at linking scholars with interests in the broad area Race and Ethnicity in Latin America, that examines of migration and community and national race and ethnicity in the four aforementioned development. Of particular interest to CMD countries, which analyzes the survey data and research is the relationship between immigrant puts the findings in historical context. In addition, communities in the developed world and the Telles has published and has several articles in growth and development prospects of the sending the pipeline on cross-national comparative articles nations. about how ethnicity, race and color affect inequality (self-reported health and educational CMD provides a venue for regular scholarly attainment), classification (racial self-identification dialogue about migration and development; serves generally in countries with large afro-descendant as a catalyst for collaborative research on these populations, self-identification as white across topics; promotes connections with other Princeton Latin America and self-identification and University programs, as well as with other classification by others as indigenous), and racial neighboring institutions where scholars are attitudes (beliefs about causes of indigenous and conducting research in these fields; hosts black inequality and beliefs about race mixing). workshops and lectures focusing on the many aspects of international migration and national The CMD hosted a meeting of the PERLA development; sponsors awards for international investigative team in the spring and celebrated the travel and research; provides fellowship publication of Pigmentocracies: Race and Ethnicity opportunities at Princeton for scholars with in Latin America, University of North Carolina interests in these areas; enhances course offerings Press in the fall. during regular terms for interested graduate and undergraduate students; maintains and makes The Mexican Migration Project available a data archive of unique studies on the field of migration; and disseminates the findings of The Mexican Migration Project (MMP) was created recent research through its working Paper series. in 1982 by an interdisciplinary team of researchers to further our understanding of the Project on Race and Ethnicity in Latin complex process of Mexican migration to the America (PERLA) United States. The project is a binational research effort co-directed by Jorge Durand, professor of Supported by a grant from the Ford Foundation, Social Anthropology at the University of Edward Telles, CMD Director, continues his Guadalajara (Mexico), and Douglas S. Massey, research on the Project on Ethnicity and Race in professor of Sociology and Public Affairs at Latin America (PERLA), which is based on several Princeton University (U.S.). The MMP has offices, national surveys and with multinational and in Mexico, at the Departamento de Investigacion interdisciplinary collaborators and funded by the sobre Movimientos Sociales of the University of Ford Foundation. The data are based on in-depth Guadalajara and, in the United States, at the ethnicity and race surveys of Mexico, Colombia, Office of Population Research of Princeton Peru and Brazil and an ethnicity module that University. PERLA introduced into the 2010 and 2012

Office of Population Research 20 Center for Migration and Development Annual Report 2015

Since its inception, the MMP's main focus has CMD Colloquium Series been to gather social as well as economic information on Mexican-US migration. The data SPRING 2015 collected has been compiled in a comprehensive database that is available to the public free of "Cinderella Can Go to School but Not to Work charge for research and educational purposes in America" through this web-site. Robert Smith, City University of New York

The MMP is a unique source of data that enables “White Bound: Nationalists Anti-Racists, and researchers to track patterns and processes of the Shared Meanings of Race” contemporary Mexican immigration to the United Matthew Hughey, University of Connecticut States. The project is a multi-disciplinary research effort that generates public use data on the “International Parental Migration and the characteristics and behavior of Mexican migrants. Psychological Well-Being of Children in Ghana, Nigeria, and Angola” The Mexican Migration Project is supported by Valentina Mazzucato, Maastricht University grants from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (5 R37-HD24047, R01 “The Law and the Clock: Undocumented HD35643) and the William and Flora Hewlett Immigrant Youth and the Transition to Foundation (94-7795), whose continuing Illegality” contributions are gratefully acknowledged. Roberto G. Gonzales, Harvard University The1982 round of surveys was originally fielded with support from grant 1 R01-HD15166, also “Janus DNA: Race and Reconciliation After the from the National Institute of Child Health and Genome” Human Development. Alondra Nelson, Columbia University

Aims and Scope of the Project “The Color of Tomorrow: Immigration and Art in Florida and California”  To gather and maintain high quality data Xavier Cortada, Miami Artist Educator, Jose on the characteristics and behavior of Ramirez, Los Angeles Artist Educator documented and undocumented Mexican migrants to the United States. “Mixed Status Families and US Immigration  To make the collected data available to the Policy from the Early Twentieth Century to the public for research and educational Present” purposes, while maintaining the Deirdre Moloney, Princeton University confidentiality of our respondents.  To continue to investigate the evolving “Guests: Migrant Musicians In Roma and Italy” nature of transnational migration between Alessandro Portelli, Columbia University Mexico and the United States. “From Illegality to Tolerance and Beyond: Irregular Immigration as a Selective and Dynamic Process” Maurizio Ambrosini, University if Milan

“Labor Market and Migration Effects of State E- Verify Mandates” Pai M. Orrenius, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Office of Population Research 21 Center for Migration and Development Annual Report 2015

CMD Colloquium Series (cont.)

FALL 2015

“Legacies of the Confederacy in the Affordable Care Act and Immigrant Access” Donald W. Light, Rowan University and Princeton Center for Migration and Development and Melanie Terrasse, Princeton University

“Black-White Relations in the Wake of Hispanic Population Growth” Maria Abascal, Princeton University

“Juárez Weeps: The Banalization of Violence in a Mexican Border City” Miriam Gutierrez Otero, Universidad Autonoma de Ciudad Juárez

Symposium on State and Nation Making in Latin America and Spain: Republics of the Possible (Cambridge University Press, 2014) Miguel A. Centeno, Princeton University, Frederick Wherry, Yale University, Margaret Frye, Princeton University

“Capital Shares for the Middle Class and Inequality: Incidence, History, Research, and Policy” Joseph Blasi, Rutgers University and Princeton University

“The Effect of Ethnic Enclaves On Job Matching and Wage Growth in the U.S.” Ted Mouw, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

“Who will Live Near Whom? -- Current Trends in Residential Segregation” Camille Charles, University of Pennsylvania

Symposium on The State and the Grassroots: Transnational Immigrant Organizations in Four Continents Alejandro Portes, Princeton University and University of Miami, Natasha Iskander, New York University, Jose Itzigsohn, Brown University

“Offending Women: Power, Punishment, and Gender in American Prisons” Lynne Haney, New York University

Office of Population Research 22 OPR Library

For any research center to function effectively, classroom computers. Printing, scanning and scholars must be supported by other professionals photocopying facilities are available. The Library’s who carry out the ancillary activities that facilitate two scanning stations include a state-of-the art excellent research. Highly skilled information book scanner; Microsoft Office software; the Adobe retrieval specialists and cutting edge libraries Design Collection, which includes Photoshop 7.0, provide the expertise and resources required for Illustrator 10, InDesign 2.0 and Acrobat 5.0; faculty and researchers to function in today’s Macromedia Director 8.5; Roxio Easy CD Creator increasingly complex information environment. Platinum; and Dreamweaver.

The Stokes Library, under the direction of Nancy The Coale Collection continues to be one of the Pressman Levy, and within which the Ansley J. world’s oldest and most renowned population Coale Population Research Collection is housed, collections, numbering over 46,000 bound has a total staff of three librarians and five volumes as well as more than 17,000 reprints, support staff. Joann Donatiello and Elana Broch technical reports, manuscripts, working and are the population research librarians. The discussion papers from other population centers, librarians provide research assistance, individual and more than 300 journals. Approximately 1,200 and group training, selection of material, delivery items are added annually. The subjects covered of printed sources as well as electronic include vital statistics, censuses, general works documents, NIH Public Access Policy compliance about demography, population policy, assistance, guidance on bibliographic immigration, health statistics, and reproductive management software, referrals for assistance and public health. Sixty percent of the collection with data manipulation and archiving, and consists of statistical materials (censuses and vital selective dissemination of information services. statistics) from all over the world and includes an Tracy Hartman, the Special Collections Assistant International Census Microform collection of for the Office of Population Research, has approximately 4,000 microfilms reels. The library extensive experience both in the publishing houses a state-of-the-art microfilm reader for industry as well as with the Google book project. viewing these materials. Filmed numerical tables can be converted into an Excel spreadsheet for Stokes Library has ample room for study and statistical manipulation. The Library also research, with tables and quiet study areas that permanently archives born digital international are completely networked and wired to census and vital statistics publications and makes accommodate the use of laptop computers. The them accessible via the Library catalog. space was recently reconfigured to add additional seating for library users and stand-up desks are For many years, the Population Index database available. The Library also has two collaborative was compiled at Princeton University’s OPR. As a study rooms and an instructional classroom with result, over 3,700 of the working papers, 12 student workstations and an instructor’s unpublished conference papers, research institute station. The room is available for classes publications, non-governmental organization and conducted by Library staff for the Princeton government publications cited in Population Index University community. The classroom is also used are available in the Ansley Coale collection. Their for computer workshops held by the Office of bibliographic records are included in an Population Research, the Woodrow Wilson School, international catalog that is searched by the Sociology Department, and other units of the academics and researchers worldwide. University Library system. The classroom Researchers may request a loan of the materials; computers are available to Library users when not or, in many cases, they can be scanned and reserved for class sessions. STATA, R, and SPSS distributed electronically. For countries with few statistical software packages are installed on all resources, this is particularly valuable.

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On a weekly basis, Elana Broch provides on-site 1790, and SimplyMap, a mapping application that reference service to the OPR researchers. During lets users create thematic maps and reports using this time, she holds regular office hours in a demographic and other data. GIS services are common room near their offices, making library available as well. As Population Studies assistance more accessible and convenient for increasingly focuses on health, the library has them. During the first few weeks of classes, Broch acquired the Global Health archive and the and Donatiello meet with the incoming graduate Cochrane Library, a collection of medical databases students to explain the resources and services covering the effects of interventions in health care. available to them. The librarians also meet with Recently, the library began offering access to Sage the new students at the end of their first year as Research Methods Online, a valuable resource that they begin their individual research projects. provides access to books, journals, and reference content about research methodology. Additional services provided to OPR’s researchers include research consultations and reference Along with the specialized resources of interest to assistance, as well as individual and group OPR researchers, the University Library provides training sessions on various information access to over 13,000 electronic journals and 800 resources, and the distribution of tables of online licensed databases that are relevant to the contents from journals specifically designated by work of the OPR. Users also have available to them each researcher. Elana Broch provides a selective numerous sources of statistical data including a dissemination of information service whereby subscription to ICPSR, the world’s largest archive of information is proactively distributed electronically digital social science data, as well as the Data- based on researchers’ individual profiles. The Planet Statistical Datasets repository. Population Research librarians also review the latest books acquired by the University Library on The Library provides document delivery services. a weekly basis and alert OPR faculty to those titles The Article Express service rapidly delivers that are of particular interest to their areas of electronic copies of articles and book chapters to research. Joann Donatiello provides extensive the desktop. Borrow Direct is a service that allows individual support for NIH Public Access Policy faculty and researchers to request books directly compliance to all OPR affiliates and works closely from the libraries at Yale, Brown, the University of with the Library’s Scholarly Communications Pennsylvania, Cornell, Dartmouth, the University of Librarian to respond to queries about copyright Chicago, Johns Hopkins, Duke, Harvard, MIT, and and Open Access. Columbia. The books are delivered to the requestor’s mailbox on campus within four A wide range of electronic resources is used by business days—much faster than traditional researchers, graduate and undergraduate interlibrary loan. In addition to Borrow Direct, the students, and the reference librarians. From its Stokes Library offers the ‘Library Express’ service. Web page, the Library offers a “discovery” interface This program provides for the rapid delivery of that provides access to all Princeton University books owned by Princeton University Library to the Library holdings including books, subscription mailboxes of OPR constituents. journals and databases, with links to the full-text content as well as individual account information, The Stokes librarians are members of the and real time availability data. In addition to Association of Population Libraries and Information POPLINE and Population Index Online, the Centers (APLIC). The association is an extensive library’s holdings include numerous electronic international network of demography libraries and databases such as Sociological Abstracts, ISI Web provides for timely document delivery as well as of Science, SocIndex, Global Health, EconLit, professional development and networking. The ScienceDirect, PsychINFO, Medline, Scopus, Library is one of the few academic institutions LexisNexis Academic, Statistical Insight, participating in this organization, and it provides PolicyFile, and PAIS. The library also provides APLIC members with access to the unique access to Social Explorer, a database that creates resources housed in the collection. Both Elana interactive maps of demographic data back to Broch and Joann Donatiello are members of the Board of Directors.

Office of Population Research 24 OPR Library Annual Report 2015

For more information on the Coale Collection, please see: library.princeton.edu/stokes

Library Staff

Elana Broch, Assistant Population Research Librarian

Joann Donatiello, Population Research Librarian

Tracy Hartman, Library Assistant

Nancy Pressman-Levy, Head, Donald E. Stokes Library

Office of Population Research 25 2015 Notestein Seminars

 Andrew Cherlin, Professor of Public Policy, Johns  Philip Cohen, Professor of Sociology, University of Hopkins University “Labor’s Love Lost: The Rise and Maryland “Revisiting Black and White Marriage Fall of the Working-Class Family in America.” Markets.” September 22, 2015 February 3, 2015  Laura Nolan, PhD Candidate, Demography & Social  Francis Doddo, Professor of Sociology and Policy “An Exploration of Adolescent Self-Reported Demography, Pennsylvania State University, “The Health in Low-Resource Settings.” September 29, Implications of the Marriage Contract: Bridewealth 2016 Payment and Women’s Reproductive and Sexual Autonomy in Ghana.” February 10, 2015  Kaare Christensen, Professor of Epidemiology, University of Southern Denmark “The Aging Society:  Shripad Tuljapukar, Professor of Biology, Stanford Are We Doing Well? Are We Doing Good?” October, School of Medicine “New Thoughts on Old Age: 6, 2015 Work, RMDs, and Longevity Risk.” February 17, 2015  John Logan, Professor of Sociology, Brown University “Before Jim Crow: The Patterns of  Michael White, Professor of Sociology, Brown Residential Segregation in Postbellum Southern University “Assimilation in the U.S.: A Look at The Cities.” October 13, 2015 Ellis Island Era and The Present Day.” February 24, 2015  Ann Morning, Associate Professor of Sociology, New York University “Race in the Demographic  Christopher Browning, Professor of Sociology, Ohio Imaginary: Conceptualization and Classification.” State University “Activity Spaces and Youth October 20, 2015 Development: Preliminary Findings from the Adolescent Health and Development in Context  Amy Tsui, Professor School of Public Health, Johns (AHDC).” March 3, 2015 Hopkins “Assessing Fixed and Transitory Household Wealth in Peri-Urban Communities in Six Sub-  Megan Todd, Ph.D. Candidate – Public Affairs & Saharan Africa: Insights from a Longitudinal Demography, Princeton University “Why are Well- Study.” October 27, 2015 Educated Muscovites More Likely to Survive? Understanding the Biological Pathways.” March 10,  Jonathan Tannen, PhD Candidate, Public and 2015 Urban Policy & Demography “Measuring Neighborhood Change as the Movement of  Fabian Pfeffer, Research Assistant Professor of Emergent Boundaries.” November 3, 2015 Sociology, University of Michigan “Wealth Inequality in Opportunity.” March 24, 2015  Aaron Gottlieb, PhD Candidate, Sociology & Demography “Messaging and Public Attitudes  Tod Hamilton, Assistant Professor of Sociology, towards Criminal Justice Sentencing Policy.” Princeton University “Understanding Labor Market November 17, 2015 Disparities Between U.S. – Born and Foreign-Born Blacks in the United States.” March 31, 2015  Sal Thorkelson, PhD Candidate, Sociology & Demography “Control Alt Delete: Political  Michael Rosenfeld, Associate Professor of Engagement & Disengagement among Children of Sociology, Stanford University “Research on Immigrants in Europe.” November 24, 2015 Children, Families, and Same-Sex Couples, including Impact on the Courts (with Special  Angel Foster, Associate Professor of Health Reference to DeBoer v. Snyder 2014).” April 7, 2015 Sciences, University of Ottawa “Abortion in the Arab World: Practices, Challenges, and Opportunities for  Takudzwa Sayi, Ph.D. Candidate in Population Expanding Safe Services.” December 1, 2015 Studies, Princeton University “Fertility Transition in sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Zimbabwe.” April  Yu Xie, Professor of Sociology, Princeton University 14, 2015 “Marriage and Cohabitation in Contemporary China.” December 8, 2015  Filiz Garip, Associate Professor of Sociology, Harvard University “The Changing Dynamics of  Vida Maralani, Assistant Professor of Sociology, Mexico-U.S. Migration.” April 21, 2015 Yale University “Children Investment and the Work- Family Balance: A Life Course View on  Edward Berchick, Ph.D. Candidate in Sociology, Breastfeeding and Labor Force Participation.” Princeton University “Mother’s Education, Family December 15, 2015 Characteristics, and Child Health across Birth Cohorts.” April 28, 2015 Office of Population Research 26 OPR Research

Biosocial Interactions quality years and those born during normal- rainfall, high-quality years. They found support for 2015: Jeanne Altmann, Jeanne Brooks-Gunn, the developmental constraints hypothesis over the Janet Currie, Noreen Goldman, Douglas Massey, predictive adaptive response hypothesis in that Sara McLanahan, Germán Rodríguez. females born in low-quality environments showed greater decreases in fertility during drought years In Jeanne Altmann’s research on wild baboons than females born in high-quality environments, and how social networks predict gut microbiome even though drought years matched the early composition, Altmann and colleagues Jenny Tung conditions of females born in low-quality (Duke University), Luis B. Barreiro (Sainte-Justine environments. Hospital Research Center, University of Montreal, Canada), and Jean-Christophe Grenier (Sainte- Jeanne Altmann and colleagues A. Catherine Justine Hospital Research Center, University of Markham (Princeton University) and Susan C. Montreal, Canada), Michael B. Burns, Josh Lynch Alberts (National Museums of Kenya, Institute of (University of Minnesota) et al. found that social Primate Research) assessed the use of multiple relationships have profound effects on health in sleeping sites by five wild baboon (Papio humans and other primates, but the mechanisms cynocephalus) social groups to evaluate how sites that explain this relationship are not well were exploited at both the population and group understood. Using shotgun metagenomic data level. On average, individual groups left sleeping from wild baboons, Altmann and her colleagues sites after one to two nights of continuous use, found that social group membership and social and the same group did not reuse a site for an network relationships predicted both the average of 45 nights. The number of trees in a taxonomic structure of the gut microbiome and sleeping site and the time since a site was last the structure of genes encoded by gut microbial used were significant factors distinguishing sites species. used on a given night by the most dominant versus most subordinate social group. These Jeanne Altmann, working with Courtney L. findings highlight the importance of evaluating Fitzpatrick (Duke University) and Susan C. Alberts resource use at multiple levels of social (National Museums of Kenya, Institute of Primate organization. Research), found that the paradigm of competitive male baboons vying to influence female mate Working with colleagues Franz Mathias (Duke choice has been repeatedly upheld, but, University) and Susan C. Alberts (National increasingly, studies also report competitive Museums of Kenya, Institute of Primate Research), females and choosy males. One female trait that is Jeanne Altmann found that social network commonly proposed to influence male mate choice structures can crucially impact complex social is the exaggerated sexual swelling displayed by processes such as collective behavior or the females of many Old World primate species. They transmission of information and diseases. They found that high-ranking males did not prefer tested this hypothesis using long-term data on a females with larger swellings (when controlling for natural population of baboons, examining the cycle number and conception) and that females effects of 29 natural knockouts of alpha or beta with larger swellings did not have higher males on adult female social networks. The only reproductive success. significant effect that they found was a decrease in mean degree in grooming networks in the first Jeanne Altmann along with Amanda J. Lea and month after knockouts, but this decrease was Jenny Tung (Duke University), and Susan C. rather small, and grooming networks rebounded Alberts (National Museums of Kenya, Institute of to baseline levels by the second month after Primate Research) studied two sets of wild female knockouts. baboons: those born during low-rainfall, low-

Office of Population Research 27 OPR Research Annual Report 2015

Jeanne Altmann, Jordi Galbany (The George values within 0.5 mile or a loss of about $4.25 Washington University), Jenny Tung (Duke million for these households; and a plant's University) and Susan C. Alberts (National operation is associated with a roughly 3 percent Museums of Kenya, Institute of Primate Research) increase in the probability of low birthweight evaluated sources of variance in canine growth within one mile. and length in a well-studied wild primate population because of the potential importance of  canines for male reproductive success in many primates. In their analysis of maturation, they Noreen Goldman’s research has focused on the compared food-enhanced baboons (those that fed linkages among socioeconomic status, stressful part time at a refuse pit associated with a tourist experience, physiological mechanisms, and health. lodge) with wild-feeding males, and found that She designed an NIA-funded national survey in food-enhanced males achieved long canines earlier Taiwan (SEBAS), fielded in 2000 and 2006, that than wild-feeding males. provides a unique source of social, health, biological and clinical information. Goldman has Jeanne Altmann and colleagues Mathias Franz continued to participate in surveys administered and Emily McLean (Duke University), along with by the Ministry of Health to provide updated Susan C. Alberts (National Museums of Kenya, health and survival data for the participants and Institute of Primate Research) specifically tested has published extensively from these data. Among for winner and loser effects on male hierarchy other findings, research over the past two years dynamics in wild baboons. For this study they has assessed the utility of biological markers for used a novel statistical approach based on the Elo mortality prediction; linkages between telomere rating method for cardinal rank assignment, length, inflammation and survival; the impact of which enables the detection of winner and loser educational level of children on parental mental effects in uncontrolled group settings. They wellbeing; and identification of the strongest hypothesized that, despite variation in individual predictors of survival among older adults in attributes, winner and loser effects exist (i) middle and high income countries. because these effects could be particularly beneficial when fighting abilities in other group  members change over time, and (ii) because the coevolution of prior attributes and winner and In “Brave New World of Biosocial Science,” loser effects maintains a balance of both effects. published in Criminology, Douglas Massey revisits the marriage of biological and social science which  was pursued in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries when neither biology nor social science In the American Economic Journals: Economic was very well developed, leaving scientists in both Policy, Janet Currie and Lucas Davis (University of disciplines ill positioned to make use of the two California, Berkeley), Michael Greenstone perspectives. The field of genetics, in particular, (University of Chicago) and Reed Walker was in its infancy; Social science for its part had (University of California, Berkeley) published their only recently been invented and powerful findings in a paper titled, “Environmental Health statistical techniques, complex data sets, and Risks and Housing Values: Evidence from 1,600 sophisticated analytic models lay years in the Toxic Plant Openings and Closings.” They found future resulting in much theorizing and little hard that the regulatory oversight of toxic emissions data analysis, yielding slow progress adjudicating from industrial plants and the understanding between competing concepts and theories. This about these emissions' impacts are in their reality left ample room for fallible human infancy. Applying a research design based on the scientists to project their own prejudices into the openings and closings of 1,600 industrial plants to theoretical schemes they constructed, leading to a rich data on housing markets and infant health, proliferation of competing schools of thought— they found that: toxic air emissions affect air structuralist, functionalist, Marxist, Freudian, and quality only within one mile of the plant; plant Darwinian—all with very different political openings lead to 11 percent declines in housing implications.

Office of Population Research 28 OPR Research Annual Report 2015

Massey discusses examples that concretely reveal strong predictor of health and wellbeing in the importance of biosocial mechanisms in the adulthood. Patterns for father entrances were more production of social stratification in the United complicated, with entrances by a biological father States and underscore the importance of such being associated with lower antisocial behavior, mechanisms in understanding the production and and entrances by a social father being associated reproduction of poverty in contemporary society. with higher antisocial behavior. The study also Not only do genes and environment interact to found that boys with genetic variants that make affect the heritability and expression of genes, them more “sensitive” to their environment often in ways that undermine individual life responded more negatively to father exits and more chances, but the conditions in the social positively to biological father entrances. environment interact with other biological processes such as telomere regulation and  allostasis to shape human destinies in potentially powerful ways. Biological scientists might Germán Rodríguez continues to collaborate with understand the molecular and physiological Noreen Goldman and Maxine Weinstein on various processes underlying these phenomena, but they aspects of their NIA-funded Social Environment do not necessarily understand the social and Biomarkers of Aging Study (SEBAS) in Taiwan, structures and processes that give rise to the with spillovers to related research questions on environmental context in which these biological reproductive aging and health. processes play out. Children, Youth, and Families Massey stresses that it is essential that social scientists take part in the ongoing investigation of 2015: Janet Currie, Sara McLanahan, Magaly the growing array of biosocial processes that play Sanchez-R. out in stratified social structures. To accomplish this goal, social scientists need to establish a In The Future of Children, Janet Currie and Nancy firmer grounding in the basics of contemporary Reichman co-edited, “Policies to Promote Child biological thinking and, especially, to move beyond Health: Introducing the Issue.” Five broad, outdated Mendelian concepts of inheritance and overlapping themes emerge from this issue: a wide gene expression. The incipient understanding of range of policies are important for promoting child sociobiological dynamics increasingly suggests health; responsibility for promoting child health is that many maladies that the poor and excluded fragmented, with a lack of consensus about exhibit are not caused by choices or behaviors so government’s appropriate role; we have a “crisis much as by the biological consequences of their response” mentality that doesn’t focus on long-term exposure to stressful circumstances prevention and often precludes implementing associated with their disadvantaged position in a policies in ways that would let us thoughtfully stratified social structure. evaluate their efficacy; information about cost- effectiveness is severely lacking; and poor and  minority children typically face the greatest health risks. In “Family Structure Instability, Genetic Sensitivity, and Child Well-Being,” published in A large volume of high-quality research shows that the American Journal of Sociology this year, Sara unhealthy children grow up to be unhealthy adults, McLanahan and colleagues Colter Mitchell that poor health and low income go hand in hand, (University of Michigan), Jeanne Brooks-Gunn and that the consequences of both poverty and (Columbia University), Daniel Notterman poor health make large demands on public coffers. (Princeton University), John Hobcraft (University Consequently, promoting children’s health is of York), and Irwin Garfinkel (Columbia University) essential for improving the population’s health. examined how genetic sensitivity moderates the Policies that help to prevent children’s health association between family structure instability problems can be wise investments, so policy and child wellbeing. The paper found that father makers should implement carefully-designed exits from the household were associated with policies and programs that promote child health. increases in boys’ antisocial behavior and also a

Office of Population Research 29 OPR Research Annual Report 2015

Mounting evidence across different disciplines The Future of Children, Policy Brief Spring 2015 suggests that early-life conditions can have issue, Ron Haskins, (Brookings Institute), Janet consequences on individual outcomes throughout Currie and Lawrence Berger (University of the lifecycle. Relative to other developed countries, Wisconsin, Madison) published an article titled, the United States fares poorly on standard “Can States Improve Children’s Health by indicators of early-life health, and this Preventing Abuse and Neglect?,” where they disadvantage may have profound consequences conclude that policy and program development in not only for population wellbeing, but also for child welfare over recent decades makes for an economic growth and competitiveness in a global interesting and important story. Following the economy. In the paper, “Early-life Origins of mandate of federal and state law that the holy Lifecycle Well-being: Research and Policy grail of child welfare is safety, permanence, and Implications,” Janet Currie and Maya Rossin- child wellbeing, states have shown that they can Slater (University of California, Santa Barbara) increase adoptions and reduce foster care first discuss the research on the strength of the placements. Further, research increasingly shows link between early-life health and adult outcomes, that many programs for children, families, and and then provide an evidence-based review of the communities can effectively reduce mental health effectiveness of existing U.S. policies targeting the problems, addiction, and other troubles that afflict early-life environment. They conclude that there is families and children so that safety, permanence, a robust and economically meaningful relationship and wellbeing can increase. The annual statistics between early-life conditions and wellbeing on confirmed cases of abuse, neglect, and child throughout the lifecycle, as measured by adult deaths show that the nation still has a long way to health, educational attainment, labor market go. The prevention and treatment programs that attachment, and other indicators of socio- have been shown to effectively promote child economic status. However, there is some variation welfare, usually without removing children from in the degree to which current policies in the U.S. their families, are expensive, though they can save are effective in improving early-life conditions. money in the long run. Thus, most states argue Among existing programs, some of the most that with more funding they could provide more, effective are the Special Supplemental Program for and more effective, programs and services. Now 30 Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), home visiting states are conducting waiver demonstrations to with nurse practitioners and high-quality, center- show that they can use funds that would normally based early childhood care and education. In be spent on foster care to pay for prevention and contrast, the evidence on other policies such as treatment services to promote child welfare. The prenatal care and family leave is more mixed and combination of more effective programs, limited. organizational and program reform associated with the waiver demonstrations, and the ongoing loss of In Janet Currie, Valentia Duque (Columbia federal funds caused in large part by the declining University) and Irwin Garfinkel’s (Columbia foster care caseload has intensified the debate in University) article, “Mother’s and Father’s Health,” Congress about giving states more flexibility in published in Children of the Great Recession, Irwin using federal funds, even at the cost of Garfinkel and Sara McLanahan (Editors), the terminating an open-ended funding program. authors examined mother’s health during the Great Recession. Their findings reveal that higher  U.S. unemployment rates during the Great Recession led to poorer self-reported health and Sara McLanahan and Isabel Sawhill (Brookings) increased levels of smoking and drug use among edited a volume of The Future of Children entitled mothers. Disadvantaged mothers—black and “Marriage and Child Wellbeing Revisited.” The Hispanic, low-educated and unmarried— volume featured chapters on ‘Why Marriage experienced greater health deteriorations than Matters,” by David Ribar (Melbourne Institute), advantaged mothers—white, married and college “Cohabitation and Child Wellbeing,” by Wendy educated. Manning (Bowling Green University), “Marriage

Office of Population Research 30 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 and Family: LBGT Individuals and Same Sex second demographic transition was leading to two Couples, by Gary Gates (University of California, very different trajectories for women—with very Los Angeles), “The Growing Racial and Ethnic different implications for children. Whereas for Divide,” by Kelly Raley (University of Texas), children born to mothers with a college degree, the Megan M. Sweeney (University of California, Los changes in family behavior were associated with Angeles) and Danielle Wondra (University of gains in parental resources, for children born to California, Los Angeles), and “Lessons Learned less educated mothers, the changes were from Non-Marriage Experiments” by Daniel associated with relative and, in some instances, Schneider (University of California, Berkeley). absolute losses in resources. The authors concluded that the trends observed in the U.S. are In “Income, Relationship Quality, and Parenting: occurring in most other industrialized countries. Associations with Child Development in Two- Parent Families,” published in the Journal of In “The Academic Consequences of Early Marriage and Family, Lonnie Berger (University of Childhood Problem Behaviors,” published in Social Washington, Madison) and Sara McLanahan Science Research, Kristin Turney (University of examined how income, relationship quality, and California, Irvine) and Sara McLanahan examined parenting are associated with child development in how social/emotional skills are associated with two-parent families. Focusing on children at the cognitive test scores in middle childhood. Results time they enter kindergarten, they found only showed that externalizing and attention problems weak evidence of differences in benefits across measured at ages 3 and 5, were associated with family types. Instead, they found that children lower test scores in middle childhood, net of a living in stepfather families experienced above- wide array of control variables and prior test average levels of parental relationship quality and scores. parenting quality, which in turn played a protective role vis-à-vis children’s cognitive and In another Social Science Research paper, “Asian social/emotional development. Mothers and Children's Verbal Development in Australia and the United States," Kate Choi In “Family Structure Transitions and Child (Western University), Amy Hsin (Queens College) Development,” published in the American and Sara McLanahan assessed the pervasiveness Sociological Review, Dohoon Lee (New York of the Asian academic advantage by examining University) and Sara McLanahan showed that White-Asian differences in verbal development family instability has a causal effect on children’s from early to middle childhood in the U.S. and development, but the effect depends on the type of Australia. The researchers found that the Asian- change, the outcome assessed, and the population origin verbal advantage can be explained by examined. For example, the researchers found parents’ socioeconomic advantage in the U.S. and that transitions out of a two-parent family were by parents’ educational advantage in Australia. more negative for children’s development than transitions into a two-parent family. They also In "Was Moynihan Right?" published in Education found that the effect of instability was more Next, Sara McLanahan and Christopher Jencks pronounced for children’s socio-emotional described the trends in non-marital childbearing development than for their cognitive achievement. and single motherhood in the U.S. and the association between these trends and child In "Diverging Destinies Revisited," in Amato, poverty and educational success. Booth, McHale, and VanHook (Editors) Families in an Era of Increasing Inequality: Diverging Destinies, Data/Methods Sara McLanahan and Wade Jacobsen extended her 2004 presidential address to the Population 2015: Abigail Aiken, Jeanne Altmann, Elizabeth Association of America by updating the evidence Armstrong, Susan Fiske, Noreen Goldman, Bryan with recent trends in the U.S. and new analyses Grenfell, Tod Hamilton, Sara McLanahan, Germán from other countries, including Japan, Australia, Rodríguez, Matthew Salganik, Brandon Stewart, and EU countries. The 2004 address argued that James Trussell. in the U.S. and other Western countries, the

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Jeanne Altmann’s research deals with life history explains certain phenomena in terms of a approaches to behavioral ecology and with motivation to blame. However, this motivation is nonexperimental research design. Altmann not measured directly, but rather is inferred from emphasizes an integrated, holistic approach by other measures, such as participants’ judgments carrying out concurrent studies of behavior, of an agent’s blameworthiness. With Daniel L. ecology, demography, genetics, and physiology at Ames (Princeton University) Susan Fiske the level of individuals, social groups, and published, “Perceived Intent Motivates People to populations. Magnify Observed Harm,” in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). This paper Jeanne Altmann’s current research centers on the introduces new methods for assessing this magnitude and sources of variability in primate theoretically important motivation, using tools life histories, parental care, and behavioral drawn from animal-model research. Fiske and ontogeny. Recently, with her collaborators, Ames test these methods in the context of recent Altmann has been conducting studies that relate “harm-magnification” research, which shows that endocrine and genetic data to demographic and people often overestimate the damage caused by behavioral information for the same individuals in intentional (versus unintentional) harms. A the Amboseli baboon population. preliminary experiment exemplifies this work and also rules out an alternative explanation for earlier In studies of monogamous Peromyscus in harm-magnification results. Experiment 1 asks captivity, Jeanne Altmann is investigating whether intended harm motivates blame or merely behavioral causes and consequences of inbreeding demonstrates the actor’s intrinsic depression and of mate choice. Initial studies blameworthiness. Consistent with a motivational examined behavioral risk factors and interpretation, participants freely chose blaming, experimentally separated effects of parental and condemning, and punishing over other appealing offspring inbreeding on inbreeding depression. tasks in an intentional-harm condition, compared with an unintentional-harm condition. Experiment  2 also measures motivation but with converging indicators of persistence (effort, rate, and With Miranda Waggoner, Elizabeth Armstrong is duration) in blaming. In addition to their working on a project that examines the uses of methodological contribution, these studies also data from the Dutch Hunger Winter. During the illuminate people’s motivational responses to winter of 1944-45, Nazi forces occupied the intentional harms. Perceived intent emerges as western provinces of the Netherlands, cutting off catalyzing a motivated social cognitive process food and fuel shipments to the area. A severe related to social prediction and control. famine ensued, which came to be known as the Dutch Hunger Winter, affecting some 4-5 million Michael S. North (New York University) and Susan people. The health consequences of the famine Fiske examine “Modern Attitudes Toward Older have been extensively studied; in particular, data Adults in the Aging World: A Cross-Cultural Meta- on the effects of exposure to famine in utero Analysis” in their paper published in Psychological collected through the Dutch Famine Birth Cohort Bulletin. Prevailing beliefs suggest that Eastern Study have become paradigmatic within cultures hold older adults in higher esteem than epidemiology and in the emerging field of Western cultures do, due to stronger collectivist epigenetics. In addition, these data have been traditions of filial piety. However, in modern, discussed extensively in the obstetric literature, industrialized societies, the strain presented by the popular press, and increasingly, in social dramatic rises in population aging potentially sciences like economics. This project examines threatens traditional cultural expectations. patterns of dissemination and interpretation of Addressing these competing hypotheses, a evidence from the Dutch Hunger Winter through literature search located 37 eligible papers, time and disciplinary space. comprising samples from 23 countries and 21,093 total participants, directly comparing Easterners  and Westerners (as classified per U.N. conventions) in their attitudes toward aging and Existing moral psychology research commonly the aged. Contradicting conventional wisdom, a

Office of Population Research 32 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 random-effects meta-analysis on these articles Bryan Grenfell’s research continued to focus on found such evaluations to be more negative in the combining basic developments in infectious East overall (standardized mean difference = disease dynamics with application to public −0.31). High heterogeneity in study comparisons health. This year’s research result is the suggested the presence of moderators; indeed, identification of a major new disease threat from geographical region emerged as a significant measles, deriving from the prolonged immune- moderating factor, with the strongest levels of modulation that follows measles infection which senior derogation emerging in East Asia (compared can increase mortality from other infections. with South and Southeast Asia) and non- Anglophone Europe (compared with North Bryan Grenfell and co-authors, Amy Wesolowski American and Anglophone Western regions). At (Harvard School of Public Health), C. J. E. Metcalf, the country level, multiple-moderator meta- Nathan Eagle (Harvard School of Public Health regression analysis confirmed recent rises in and Northeastern University), Janeth Kombich population aging to significantly predict negative (University of Kabianga, Kericho Country, Kenya) elder attitudes, controlling for industrialization per et al. published, “Quantifying Seasonal Population se over the same time period. Unexpectedly, these Fluxes Driving Rubella Transmission Dynamics analyses also found that cultural individualism Using Mobile Phone Data” in PNAS. This paper significantly predicted relative positivity— reviews changing patterns of human aggregation suggesting that, for generating elder respect within which are thought to drive annual and rapidly aging societies, collectivist traditions may multiannual outbreaks of infectious diseases. backfire. The findings suggest the importance of However, the paucity of data about travel behavior demographic challenges in shaping modern and population flux over time has made this idea attitudes toward elders—presenting considerations difficult to test quantitatively. Current measures of for future research in ageism, cross-cultural human mobility, especially in low-income settings, psychology, and even economic development, as are often static, relying on approximate travel societies across the globe accommodate times, road networks, or cross-sectional surveys. unprecedented numbers of older citizens. Mobile phone data provide a unique source of information about human travel, but the power of  these data to describe epidemiologically relevant changes in population density remains unclear. In early 2016, Noreen Goldman will be fielding a Here they quantify seasonal travel patterns using short follow-up survey of the Taiwan participants mobile phone data from nearly 15 million to obtain updated information on health and anonymous subscribers in Kenya. Using a rich functional performance. A proposal is underway to data source of rubella incidence, they show that use these extensive longitudinal data to determine patterns of population travel (fluxes) inferred from rates of senescence and linkages with stressful mobile phone data are predictive of disease experience, social status and survival. She is transmission and improve significantly on beginning a project in collaboration with standard school term time and weather covariates. researchers at UCLA on the relationship between Further, combining seasonal and spatial data on occupation and disability among middle-aged and travel from mobile phone data allows us to older adults in Mexico. Goldman foresees an characterize seasonal fluctuations in risk across extension of this work to examine such Kenya and produce dynamic importation risk associations among Mexican Americans to explore maps for rubella. Mobile phone data therefore offer what appears to be one of many paradoxes of a valuable previously unidentified source of data Latino health, namely why it is that Mexicans in for measuring key drivers of seasonal epidemics. the U.S. experience higher disability rates than whites yet live longer. High-risk occupations and In “Understanding Herd Immunity,” published in poor employment conditions may provide a partial Trends in Immunology, C. J. E. Metcalf, M. Ferrari answer. (Pennsylvania State University), A. L. Graham (Princeton University, Department of Ecology and  Evolutionary Biology), and Bryan Grenfell state that individual immunity is a powerful force

Office of Population Research 33 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 affecting host health and pathogen evolution. in high viral loads of re-assortants, which may Importantly, the effects of individual immunity facilitate their onward transmission among also scale up to affect pathogen transmission humans. The prevention or limitation of zoonotic dynamics and the success of vaccination IAV infection in immunocompromised and contact campaigns for entire host populations. Population- individuals, including health care workers, as well scale immunity is often termed 'herd immunity'. as vaccination against seasonal IAVs—limiting the Here they outline how individual immunity maps risk of co-infection—should be considered to population outcomes and discuss implications fundamental tools to thwart the evolution of a for control of infectious diseases. Particular novel pandemic IAV by accumulation of mutations immunological characteristics may be more or less and re-assortment. likely to result in a population level signature of herd immunity; we detail this and also discuss Bryan Grenfell along with Sinead E. Morris other population-level outcomes that might (Princeton University, Department of Ecology and emerge from individual-level immunity. Evolutionary Biology), Jonathan L. Zelner (Columbia University), Deborah A. Fauquier In their paper, “Quantifying the Risk of Pandemic (National Marine Fisheries Service, Marine Influenza Virus Evolution by Mutation and Re- Mammal Health and Stranding Response Program, assortment,” published in Vaccine, Leslie A. Silver Spring.MD), Teresa K. Rowles (National Reperant (Artemis One Health Research Marine Fisheries Service, Southeast Fisheries Foundation), Bryan T. Grenfell, and Albert D. M. Science Center, Lafayette, LA) et al. published, E. Osterhaus (Erasmus Medical Centre, The “Partially Observed Epidemics in Wildlife Hosts: Netherlands) state that large outbreaks of zoonotic Modelling an Outbreak of Dolphin Morbillivirus in influenza A virus (IAV) infections may presage an the Northwestern Atlantic, in Journal of the Royal influenza pandemic. However, the likelihood that Society Interface. Morbilliviruses cause major an airborne-transmissible variant evolves upon mortality in marine mammals, but the dynamics zoonotic infection or co-infection with zoonotic and of transmission and persistence are ill understood seasonal IAVs remains poorly understood, as does compared to terrestrial counterparts such as the relative importance of accumulating mutations measles; this is especially true for epidemics in versus re-assortment in this process. Using cetaceans. However, the recent outbreak of discrete-time probabilistic models, we determined dolphin morbillivirus in the northwestern Atlantic quantitative probability ranges that transmissible Ocean can provide new insights into the variants with 1–5 mutations and transmissible re- epidemiology and spatiotemporal spread of this assortants evolve after a given number of zoonotic pathogen. To deal with uncertainties surrounding IAV infections. The systematic exploration of a the ecology of this system (only stranded animals large population of model parameter values was were observed), they develop a statistical designed to account for uncertainty and variability framework that can extract key information about in influenza virus infection, epidemiological and the underlying transmission process given only evolutionary processes. The models suggested that sparse data. Their self-exciting Poisson process immunocompromised individuals are at high risk model suggests that individuals are infectious for of generating IAV variants with pandemic potential at most 24 days and can transfer infection up to by accumulation of mutations. Yet, both two latitude degrees (220 km) within this time. In immunocompetent and immunocompromised addition, the effective reproduction number is individuals could generate high viral loads of generally below one, but reaches 2.6 during a single and double mutants, which may facilitate period of heightened stranding numbers near their onward transmission and the subsequent Virginia Beach, Virginia, in summer 2013. accumulation of additional 1–2 mutations in Network analysis suggests local movements newly-infected individuals. This may result in the dominate spatial spread, with seasonal migration evolution of a full transmissible genotype along facilitating wider dissemination along the coast. short chains of contact transmission. Although co- Finally, a low virus transmission rate or high infection with zoonotic and seasonal IAVs was levels of pre-existing immunity can explain the shown to be a rare event, it consistently resulted lack of viral spread into the Gulf of Mexico. More

Office of Population Research 34 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 generally, their approach illustrates novel Understanding the within-host dynamics of these methodologies for analyzing very indirectly coinfecting pathogens is crucial, particularly in observed epidemics. light of new, direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) for HCV treatment that are becoming available. In Bryan Grenfell, Corinne N. Thompson (Oxford this study, they construct a within-host University, London School of Hygiene & Tropical mathematical model of HCV/HIV coinfection by Medicine), Jonathan L. Zelner (Columbia adapting a previously published model of HCV University),, Tran Do Hoang Nhu (Oxford monoinfection to include an immune system University), My V. T. Phan (Wellcome Trust Sanger component in infection clearance. We explore the Institute) et al published, “The Impact of effect of HIV-coinfection on spontaneous HCV Environmental and Climatic Variation on the clearance and sustained virologic response (SVR) Spatiotemporal Trends of Hospitalized Pediatric by building in decreased immune function with Diarrhea in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam,” in Health increased HIV viral load. Treatment is modeled by & Place. In this work, they authors write that it is modifying HCV burst-size, and they use clinically- predicted that the integration of climate-based relevant parameter estimates. Their model early warning systems into existing action plans replicates real-world patient outcomes; it outputs will facilitate the timely provision of interventions infected and uninfected target cell counts, and to diarrheal disease epidemics in resource-poor HCV viral load for varying treatment and settings. Diarrhea remains a considerable public coinfection scenarios. Increased HIV viral load and health problem in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), reduced CD4+ count correlate with decreased Vietnam and they aimed to quantify variation in spontaneous clearance and SVR chances. the impact of environmental conditions on Treatment efficacy/duration combinations diarrheal disease risk across the city. Using all resulting in SVR are calculated for HIV-positive inpatient diarrheal admissions data from three and negative patients, and crucially, we replicate large hospitals within HCMC, they developed a the new findings that highly efficacious DAAs mixed effects regression model to differentiate reduce treatment differences between HIV-positive district-level variation in risk due to environmental and negative patients. However, we also find that conditions from the overarching seasonality of if drug efficacy decays sufficiently over treatment diarrheal disease hospitalization in HCMC. They course, SVR differences between HIV-positive and identified considerable spatial heterogeneity in the negative patients reappear. In conclusion, their risk of all-cause diarrhea across districts of HCMC model shows theoretical evidence of the differing with low elevation and differential responses to outcomes of HCV infection in cases where the flooding, air temperature, and humidity driving immune system is compromised by HIV. further spatial heterogeneity in diarrheal disease Understanding what controls these outcomes is risk. The incorporation of these results into especially important with the advent of efficacious predictive forecasting algorithms will provide a but often prohibitively expensive DAAs. Using a powerful resource to aid diarrheal disease model to predict patient response can lend insight prevention and control practices in HCMC and into optimal treatment design, both in helping to other similar settings. identify patients who might respond well to treatment and in helping to identify treatment Ruthie Birger (Princeton University, Department of pathways and pitfalls. Ecology and Evolutionary Biology), Roger Kouyos (University Hospital Zürich and University of Jemma L. Geoghegan (University of Sydney), Le Zürich), Jonathan Dushoff (McMaster University), Van Tan (Oxford University), Denise Kühnert and Bryan Grenfell et al. authored, “Modeling the (Department of Environmental Systems Science, effect of HIV coinfection on clearance and Zürich and Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics), sustained virologic response during treatment for Rebecca A. Halpin (J. Craig Venter Institute, hepatitis C virus in Epidemics. The paper’s Rockville, MD) and Bryan Grenfell et al. published, background states that HIV/hepatitis C (HCV) “Phylodynamics of Enterovirus A71-Associated coinfection is a major concern in global health Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Viet Nam,” in today. Each pathogen can exacerbate the effects of Journal of Virology). Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) is a the other and affect treatment outcomes. major cause of hand, foot, and mouth disease

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(HFMD) and is particularly prevalent in parts of evolution of resistance, providing evidence in the Southeast Asia, affecting thousands of children rare cases where it is available. Overall, their and infants each year. Revealing the evolutionary review indicates that the impact of coinfection has and epidemiological dynamics of EV-A71 through the potential to be considerable, suggesting that time and space is central to understanding its this should be taken into account when designing outbreak potential. We generated the full genome antimicrobial drug treatments. sequences of 200 EV-A71 strains sampled from various locations in Viet Nam between 2011 and Ph.D. candidate Christina Faust), Jonathan Zelner 2013 and used these sequence data to determine (National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD), the evolutionary history and phylodynamics of EV- Philippe Brasseur (L’Institut de Recherche pour le A71 in Viet Nam, providing estimates of the Développement), Michel Vaillant (Centre de effective reproduction number (Re) of the infection Recherche Public), and Bryan Grenfell et al. through time. In addition, we described the published, “Assessing Drivers of Full Adoption of phylogeography of EV-A71 throughout Southeast Test and Treat Policy for Malaria in Senegal,” in Asia, documenting patterns of viral gene flow. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene Accordingly, their analysis reveals that a rapid . The abstract states that malaria treatment policy genogroup switch from C4 to B5 likely took place has changed from presumptive treatment to during 2012 in Viet Nam. We show that the Re of targeted “test and treat” (T&T) with malaria rapid subgenogroup C4 decreased during the time frame diagnostic tests (RDTs) and artemisinin of sampling, whereas that of B5 increased and combination therapy (ACT). This transition remained >1 at the end of 2013, corresponding to involves changing behavior among health a rise in B5 prevalence. Their study reveals that providers, meaning delays between introduction the subgenogroup B5 virus that emerged into Viet and full implementation are recorded in almost Nam is closely related to variants that were every instance. They investigated factors affecting responsible for large epidemics in Malaysia and successful transition, and suggest approaches for Taiwan and therefore extends our knowledge accelerating uptake of T&T. Records from 2000 to regarding its associated area of endemicity. 2011 from health clinics in Senegal where malaria Subgenogroup B5 evidently has the potential to is mesoendemic were examined (96,166 cases). cause more widespread outbreaks across The study period encompassed the Southeast Asia. implementation of national T&T policy in 2006. Analysis showed that adherence to test results is Ruthie B. Birger (Princeton University, the first indicator of T&T adoption and is Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology), dependent on accumulation of experience with Roger D. Kouyos (University Hospital Zürich), Ted positive RDTs (odds ratio [OR]: 0.55 [P ≤ 0.001], Cohen (Yale School of Public Health), Emily C. 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53–0.58). Reliance Griffiths (North Carolina State University, Raleigh), on tests for malaria diagnosis (rather than and Bryan T. Grenfell et al. published, “The presumptive diagnosis) followed after test Potential Impact of Coinfection on Antimicrobial adherence is achieved, and was also associated Chemotherapy and Drug Resistance in Trends in with increased experience with positive RDTs (OR: Microbiology. The authors state that across a 0.60 [P ≤ 0.001], 95% CI: 0.58–0.62). Logistic range of pathogens, resistance to chemotherapy is models suggest that full adoption of T&T clinical a growing problem in both public health and practices can occur within 2 years, that animal health. Despite the ubiquity of coinfection, monitoring these behavioral responses rather than and its potential effects on within-host biology, the RDT or ACT consumption will improve evaluation role played by coinfecting pathogens on the of T&T uptake, and that accelerating T&T uptake evolution of resistance and efficacy of by focusing training on adherence to test results antimicrobial chemotherapy is rarely considered. will reduce over diagnosis and associated health In this review, they provide an overview of the and economic costs in mesoendemic regions. mechanisms of interaction of coinfecting pathogens, ranging from immune modulation and Michael J. Mina (Princeton University, Department resource modulation, to drug interactions. They of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; Emory discuss their potential implications for the University), C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Rik L. de Swart

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(Erasmus University Medical Center), , A. D. M. E. Evolutionary Biology; Beijer Institute of Ecological Osterhaus (Erasmus Medical Centre, The Economics,Sweden; and Resources for the Future, Netherlands), and Bryan T. Grenfell et al. Washington, DC) et al. published, “Global Trends published, “Vaccines. Long-term Measles Induced in Antimicrobial Use in Food Animals,” in Proc Natl Immunomodulation Increases Overall Childhood Acad Sci. Demand for animal protein for human Infectious Disease Mortality,” in Science. consumption is rising globally at an Immunosuppression after measles is known to unprecedented rate. Modern animal production predispose people to opportunistic infections for a practices are associated with regular use of period of several weeks to months. Using antimicrobials, potentially increasing selection population-level data, they show that measles has pressure on bacteria to become resistant. Despite a more prolonged effect on host resistance, the significant potential consequences for extending over two to three years. They find that antimicrobial resistance, there has been no nonmeasles infectious disease mortality in high- quantitative measurement of global antimicrobial income countries is tightly coupled to measles consumption by livestock. They address this gap incidence at this lag, in both the pre- and post- by using Bayesian statistical models combining vaccine eras. They conclude that long-term maps of livestock densities, economic projections immunologic sequelae of measles drive of demand for meat products, and current interannual fluctuations in nonmeasles deaths. estimates of antimicrobial consumption in high- This is consistent with recent experimental work income countries to map antimicrobial use in food that attributes the immunosuppressive effects of animals for 2010 and 2030. They estimate that the measles to depletion of B and T lymphocytes. Their global average annual consumption of data provide an explanation for the long-term antimicrobials per kilogram of animal produced benefits of measles vaccination in preventing all- was 45 mg·kg-1,148 mg·kg-1, and 172 mg·kg-1 for cause infectious disease. By preventing measles- cattle, chicken, and pigs, respectively. Starting associated immune memory loss, vaccination from this baseline, we estimate that between 2010 protects polymicrobial herd immunity. and 2030, the global consumption of antimicrobials will increase by 67%, from 63,151 C. J. E. Metcalf, V. Andreasen (Universitetsvej, ±1,560 tons to 105,596 ±3,605 tons. Up to a third Denmark), O. N. Bjørnstad (Pennsylvania State of the increase in consumption in livestock University), K. Eames (London School of Hygiene & between 2010 and 2030 is imputable to shifting Tropical Medicine), and B. T. Grenfell et al. production practices in middle-income countries published, “Seven Challenges in Modelling Vaccine where extensive farming systems will be replaced Preventable Diseases,” in Epidemics which states by large-scale intensive farming operations that that vaccination has been one of the most routinely use antimicrobials in subtherapeutic successful public health measures since the doses. For Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South introduction of basic sanitation. Substantial Africa, the increase in antimicrobial consumption mortality and morbidity reductions have been will be 99%, up to seven times the projected achieved via vaccination against many infections, population growth in this group of countries. and the list of diseases that are potentially Better understanding of the consequences of the controllable by vaccines is growing steadily. The uninhibited growth in veterinary antimicrobial authors introduce key challenges for modeling in consumption is needed to assess its potential shaping our understanding and guiding policy effects on animal and human health. decisions related to vaccine preventable diseases. Bryan T. Grenfell, Saki Takahashi (Princeton Thomas P. Van Boeckel (Princeton University, University, Department of Ecology and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology), Evolutionary Biology), C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Charles Brower (Center for Disease Dynamics, Matthew J. Ferrari (Pennsylvania State Economics and Policy, Washington, DC) Marius University), and William J. Moss (Johns Hopkins), Gilbert (Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium; et al published, “Reduced Vaccination and the Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique, Risk of Measles and Other Childhood Infections Belgium), Bryan T. Grenfell, and Simon A. Levin Post-Ebola,” in Science. In this paper they state (Princeton University, Department of Ecology and that the Ebola epidemic in West Africa has caused

Office of Population Research 37 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 substantial morbidity and mortality. The outbreak however, due to an estimated mixing parameter of has also disrupted health care services, including 0.74. Relationships between transmission and the childhood vaccinations, creating a second public climatic variables that they estimated were health crisis. We project that after 6 to 18 months biologically plausible and in line with expectations. of disruptions, a large connected cluster of Their analysis suggests that autochthonous children unvaccinated for measles will accumulate transmission of Chikungunya in the Americas can across Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. This be correlated successfully with putative climatic pool of susceptibility increases the expected size of drivers, even at the coarse scale of countries and a regional measles outbreak from 127,000 to using long-term average climate data. Overall, this 227,000 cases after 18 months, resulting in 2000 provides a preliminary suggestion that to 16,000 additional deaths (comparable to the successfully forecasting the future trajectory of a numbers of Ebola deaths reported thus far). There Chikungunya outbreak and the receptivity of is a clear path to avoiding outbreaks of childhood virgin areas may be possible. The results also vaccine-preventable diseases once the threat of provide tentative estimates of timeframes and Ebola begins to recede: an aggressive regional areas of greatest risk, and their extension of the vaccination campaign aimed at age groups left TSIR model provides a novel tool for modeling unprotected because of health care disruptions. vector-borne disease transmission.

T. Alex Perkins (University of Notre Dame; Sinead E. Morris (Princeton University, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD), C. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology), Jessica E. Metcalf, Bryan T. Grenfell, and Andrew Virginia E. Pitzer (Yale School of Public Health and J. Tatem (University of Southampton; Flowminder National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD), Foundation, Sweden) published, “Estimating Cécile Viboud (National Institutes of Health, drivers of autochthonous transmission of Bethesda, MD), C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Ottar N. chikungunya virus in its invasion of the Bjørnstad (Pennsylvania State University), and Americas,” in PLOS Currents Outbreaks. As Bryan T. Grenfell published, “Demographic background, they authors share that Buffering: Titrating the Effects of Birth Rate and Chikungunya is an emerging arbovirus that has Imperfect Immunity on Epidemic Dynamics, in J R caused explosive outbreaks in Africa and Asia for Soc Interface. The authors write that host decades and invaded the Americas just over a year demography can alter the dynamics of infectious ago. During this ongoing invasion, it has spread to disease. In the case of perfectly immunizing 45 countries where it has been transmitted infections, observations of strong sensitivity to autochthonously, infecting nearly 1.3 million demographic variation have been mechanistically people in total. The methods used here made use explained through analysis of the susceptible– of weekly, country-level case reports to infer infected–recovered (SIR) model that assumes relationships between transmission and two lifelong immunity following recovery from putative climatic drivers: temperature and infection. When imperfect immunity is precipitation averaged across each country on a incorporated into this framework via the monthly basis. To do so, they used a TSIR model susceptible–infected–recovered–susceptible (SIRS) that enabled them to infer a parametric model, with individuals regaining full relationship between climatic drivers and susceptibility following recovery, they show that transmission potential, and they applied a new rapid loss of immunity is predicted to buffer method for incorporating a probabilistic populations against the effects of demographic description of the serial interval distribution into change. However, this buffering is contrary to the the TSIR framework. They found significant dependence on demography recently observed for relationships between transmission and linear and partially immunizing infections such as rotavirus quadratic terms for temperature and precipitation and respiratory syncytial virus. They show that and a linear term for log incidence during the this discrepancy arises from a key simplification previous pathogen generation. The lattermost embedded in the SIR(S) framework, namely that suggests that case numbers three to four weeks the potential for differential immune responses to ago are largely predictive of current case numbers. repeat exposures is ignored. They explore the This effect is quite nonlinear at the country level, minimum additional immunological information

Office of Population Research 38 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 that must be included to reflect the range of replicate these biennial transitions at higher observed dependencies on demography. They show amplitudes of seasonality in the transmission rate. that including partial protection and lower This successfully connects environmental drivers transmission following primary infection is to the epidemic dynamics of RSV; however, it does sufficient to capture more realistic reduced levels not fully explain why RSV activity begins in of buffering, in addition to changes in epidemic Florida, one of the warmest states, when RSV is a timing, across a range of partially and fully winter-seasonal pathogen. Understanding and immunizing infections. Furthermore, their results predicting the seasonality of RSV is essential in identify key variables in this relationship, determining the optimal timing of including R0. immunoprophylaxis.

Bryan T. Grenfell along with Virginia E.Pitzer Yale  School of Public Health and National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD), Cécile Viboud (National In Tod Hamilton’s paper titled, “The Healthy Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD), Wladimir Immigrant (Migrant) Effect: In Search of a Better J.Alonso (National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Native-Born Comparison Group,” published in MD), Tanya Wilcox (National Institutes of Health, Social Science Research, he evaluates whether Bethesda, MD) et al. published, “Environmental immigrants’ initial health advantage over their Drivers of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of U.S.-born counterparts results primarily from Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the United States,” characteristics correlated with their birth in PLOS Pathogens. The authors write that countries (e.g., immigrant culture) or from epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are selective migration (e.g., unobserved known to occur in wintertime in temperate characteristics such as motivation and ambition) countries including the United States, but there is by comparing recent immigrants’ health to that of a limited understanding of the importance of recent U.S.-born interstate migrants (“U.S.-born climatic drivers in determining the seasonality of movers”). Using data from the 1999–2013 waves of RSV. In the United States, RSV activity is highly the March Current Population Survey, he finds spatially structured, with seasonal peaks that, relative to U.S.-born adults (collectively), beginning in Florida in November through recent immigrants have a 6.1 percentage point December and ending in the upper Midwest in lower probability of reporting their health as fair or February-March, and prolonged disease activity in poor. Changing the reference group to U.S.-born the southeastern US. Using data on both age- movers, however, reduces the recent immigrant specific hospitalizations and laboratory reports of health advantage by 28%. Similar reductions in RSV in the U.S., and employing a combination of the immigrant health advantage occurs in models statistical and mechanistic epidemic modeling, estimated separately by either race/ethnicity or they examined the association between education level. Models that examine health environmental variables and state-specific differences between recent immigrants and U.S.- measures of RSV seasonality. Temperature, vapor born movers who both moved for a new job—a pressure, precipitation, and potential primary motivation behind moving for both evapotranspiration (PET) were significantly immigrants and the U.S.-born—show that such associated with the timing of RSV activity across immigrants have only a 1.9 percentage point lower states in univariate exploratory analyses. The probability of reporting their health as fair or poor. amplitude and timing of seasonality in the Together, the findings suggest that changing the transmission rate was significantly correlated with reference group from U.S.-born adults collectively seasonal fluctuations in PET, and negatively to U.S.-born movers reduces the identified correlated with mean vapor pressure, minimum immigrant health advantage, indicating that temperature, and precipitation. States with low selective migration plays a significant role in mean vapor pressure and the largest seasonal explaining the initial health advantage of variation in PET tended to experience biennial immigrants in the United States. patterns of RSV activity, with alternating years of ‘‘early-big’’ and ‘‘late-small’’ epidemics. Their model for the transmission dynamics of RSV was able to

Office of Population Research 39 OPR Research Annual Report 2015

 Drawing inspiration from online information aggregation systems like Wikipedia and from Sara McLanahan is the principal investigator of traditional survey research, Matthew Salganik and the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study Karen E.C. Levy (New York University) proposed a (FFS), a longitudinal, birth cohort study of new class of research instruments called wiki approximately 5,000 parents and their children, surveys. Just as Wikipedia evolves over time based including a large oversample of unmarried on contributions from participants, Salganik and parents. Mothers and fathers were interviewed Levey envisioned an evolving survey driven by shortly after the birth of their child, and follow-up contributions from respondents. In a paper interviews were conducted with both parents one, published in PLoS ONE, “Wiki Surveys: Open and three, five and nine years after the child’s birth. Quantifiable Social Data Collection” they The study is currently in the field collecting data developed three general principles that underlie from mothers and children fifteen years after wiki surveys: they should be greedy, collaborative, child’s birth. The 9-year interview collected saliva and adaptive. Building on these principles, they samples from mothers and children to be used for developed methods for data collection and data genetic and epigenetic analyses. The 15-year analysis for one type of wiki survey, a pairwise interview is collecting new saliva samples from wiki survey. Using two proof-of-concept case teens to be used to study changes in epigenetic studies involving their free and open-source markers and biomarkers. The study is supported website, All Our Ideas by grants from the National Institute of Child (http://www.allourideas.org/), they show that Health and Human Development (NICHD), pairwise wiki surveys can yield insights that would National Science Foundation (NSF), the Ford be difficult to obtain with other methods. The Foundation, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation replication data and code can be downloaded from and a host of other local and national foundations. the Office of Population Research (OPR) data The data are a valuable resource to the Princeton archive (http://opr.princeton.edu/archive/ws/). community of postdocs, graduate students and undergraduates as well as to the broader research Led by Matthew Salganik, All Our Ideas community. (www.allourideas.org), is a research project that seeks to develop a new form of social data  collection by combining the best features of quantitative and qualitative methods. Using the Germán Rodríguez contributed an article on power of the web, they are creating a data “Multilevel Models in Demography” to the collection tool that has the scale, speed, and International Encyclopedia of the Social and quantification of a survey while still allowing for Behavioral Sciences, Second Edition, edited by new information to "bubble up" from respondents James D. Wright. Following some historical as happens in interviews, participant observation, remarks he introduced multilevel models in the and focus groups. Launched in February 2010 All context of a classical analysis of contraceptive use Our Ideas is currently hosting 7,940 wiki surveys in various countries by Mason and Wong, with 451,124 ideas and 11.3 million votes. describing random-intercept and random-slope Current contributors are Karen Levy (New York models, cross-level interactions, fixed and random University) and Luke Baker (Agathon Group).The effects, and subject-specific and population- authors highlight both the importance of fulfilling average probabilities. He then turned to an women’s contraceptive desires to help them extended analysis of infant and child survival in implement their reproductive goals, and the Kenya using a three-level hazard model with potential salience of feelings about pregnancy for family and community random effects, focusing on future health outcomes, should an unintended interpretation of the parameters and translation of pregnancy occur. the results into probabilities of infant and child death. In October of this year, a revised version of Matthew Salganik’s working paper, "Generalizing  the Network Scale-Up Method: A New Estimator for the Size of Hidden Populations" and posted to

Office of Population Research 40 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 the arXiv. Co-authored with Ph.D. candidate 22 items on the STROBE checklist. The two key Dennis Feehan, the new version has major areas that required modification concerned the improvements in the exposition and the selection of participants and statistical analysis of framework for sensitivity analysis (October 2015). the sample. STROBE-RDS seeks to enhance the This paper shows how the network scale-up transparency and utility of research using RDS. If method enables researchers to estimate the size of widely adopted, STROBE-RDS should improve hidden populations, such as drug injectors and global infectious diseases public health decision sex workers, using sampled social network data. making. The basic scale-up estimator offers advantages over other size estimation techniques, but it Matthew Salganik’s paper, "Diagnostics for depends on problematic modeling assumptions. respondent-driven sampling", co-authored with Salganik and Feehan propose a new generalized Krista J. Gile (University of Massachusetts, scale-up estimator that can be used in settings Amherst) and Lisa G. Johnston (Tulane University with non-random social mixing and imperfect and University of California, San Francisco), awareness about membership in the hidden appeared in the Journal of the Royal Statistical population. Further, the new estimator can be Society, Series A. Respondent-driven sampling used when data are collected via complex sample (RDS) is a widely used method for sampling from designs and from incomplete sampling frames. hard-to-reach human populations, especially However, the generalized scale-up estimator also populations at higher risk for human requires data from two samples: one from the immunodeficiency virus or acquired immune frame population and one from the hidden deficiency syndrome. Data are collected through a population. In some situations these data from the peer referral process over social networks. RDS hidden population can be collected by adding a has proven practical for data collection in many small number of questions to already planned difficult settings and has been adopted by leading studies. For other situations, they develop public health organizations around the world. interpretable adjustment factors that can be Unfortunately, inference from RDS data requires applied to the basic scale-up estimator. They many strong assumptions because the sampling conclude with practical recommendations for the design is partially beyond the control of the design and analysis of future studies. researcher and not fully observable. Here Salganik and his co-authors introduce diagnostic tools for In a paper published in the Journal of Clinical most of these assumptions and apply them in 12 Epidemiology, Matthew Salganik along with co- high risk populations. These diagnostics empower authors Richard G. White (London School of researchers to understand their RDS data better Hygiene and Tropical Medicine), Kate Orroth and encourage future statistical research on RDS (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine), sampling and inference. Avi J. Hakim (U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), Michael W. Spiller (U.S. Centers  for Disease Control and Prevention), et al. carried out a systematic review of Respondent Driven Brandon Stewart has been developing new Sampling (RDS) studies and present quantitative statistical methods for applications Strengthening the Reporting of Observational across the social sciences. Methodologically his Studies in Epidemiology for RDS Studies focus is on tools which facilitate automated text (STROBE-RDS), a checklist of essential items to analysis and model complex heterogeneity in present in RDS publications, justified by an regression. Many recent applications of these explanation and elaboration document. The methods have centered on using large corpora of resultant paper, “Strengthening the Reporting of text to better understand propaganda in Observational Studies in Epidemiology for contemporary China. Respondent-Driven Sampling Studies: STROBE- RDS Statement,” found that RDS has been used in Recently, Brandon Stewart has been working on over 460 studies from 69 countries, including the Latent Factor Regressions which provide a general USA (151 studies), China (70), and India (32). framework for modeling dependent data. The STROBE-RDS includes modifications to 12 of the framework covers numerous data types including

Office of Population Research 41 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 grouped/multilevel, time-series cross-sectional, Ever having taken a risk with respect to pregnancy spatial and network data, all with a single and/or STIs is common among the sample of approach. While previous proposals in the reproductive health professionals. Most literature can take days to estimate a single model, reproductive healthcare professionals in the estimation under his framework often takes less sample have taken sexual risks in their lifetime than a second. He will be releasing an R package and a small proportion has done so in the past implementing these new methods. year. These findings could inform counseling by encouraging healthcare professionals to reflect  upon their own experiences when developing strategies to promote safe sex among their In the Original research article “Do as We Say, Not patients. as We Do: Experiences of Unprotected Intercourse” reported by members of the Society of Family Education and Stratification Planning, Abigail Aiken and James Trussell examined the lifetime and past-year prevalence 2015: Thomas Espenshade, Patricia Fernández- and circumstances of unprotected intercourse Kelly, Susan Fiske, Margaret Frye, Jackelyn among members of the Society of Family Planning Hwang, Douglas Massey, Edward Telles, Marta (SFP), a professional reproductive health Tienda. organization in the United States. They invited the membership of SFP (n=477) via email to Thomas Espenshade’s New Jersey Families Study participate in an anonymous online survey. The brings an innovative method to research on the response rate was 70% (n=340). Respondents were family life of young children (about 3 years old). asked whether they had ever and in the past year More than half of poor children in the United had unprotected vaginal intercourse when not States enter kindergarten lacking the math, intending a pregnancy and, if so, how many times, reading, and social-behavioral skills needed to under what circumstances, and at what age the learn. To what extent does the home environment first time. Then they were asked about play a role in this situation, and what can be done unprotected vaginal, anal, or oral intercourse ever about it? How can one prepare all children for and in the past year under three different success in the modern economy when success scenarios relating to sexually transmitted begins at home? infections (STIs): (1) partner STI status unknown, respondent STI-free; (2) partner known infected, Past research has shown that children’s respondent STI-free; (3) partner STI-free, characteristics when they start school—such as respondent STI status unknown or known focus, persistence, and math and reading ability— infected. Each scenario included questions about can have long-ranging effects on their success in the number of times, applicable circumstances, life. Families build different skills and sources of and age at first time. knowledge in their children in these early years, and the researchers want to learn more about the Forty-six percent of respondents had ever had wide range of approaches that they use to help unprotected vaginal intercourse when not children be school-ready. intending pregnancy, 7% within the past year. Sixty percent had ever had unprotected vaginal, In this study the researchers use direct anal, or oral intercourse with a partner whose STI observations of parent-child interactions as a way status was unknown, 12% within the past year. to deepen their understanding of the early origins Four percent had ever had unprotected of learning gaps. They plan to recruit a small intercourse with a partner known to have STI, and sample of 12 families, differentiated by race and 8%, with an STI-free partner when they social class backgrounds, in the Princeton- themselves either had an STI or did not know their Trenton, New Jersey area and conduct a close and STI status. continuous observation of family dynamics over a two-week period. Unobtrusive technologies in the form of baby cams placed strategically in

Office of Population Research 42 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 participants’ homes and activated only during Youth. This research looks at one of the most well-defined hours of the day and evening will urgent problems facing the United States, the constitute the primary means of data collection. widening gap between low and high achievers. They are particularly interested in children’s diet Black children are already a year behind white and nutrition, the amount of talking and reading children when they begin kindergarten. By the parents do with their children, forms of discipline, time of high school graduation, black children are children’s exposure to electronic “screen time,” four years behind whites. And more than half of sleep routines, and the way stress affects poor children in America enter kindergarten parenting, among other things. Data from the lacking the math, reading, and social-behavioral video ethnography will be supplemented by a skills needed to learn. A process of cumulative series of standard survey instruments that will causation guarantees that what happens at young permit the researchers to assess children’s ages affects all later ages. The legacy of early cognitive and non-cognitive development and to disadvantage follows children into adulthood and compare what parents say they do with what they often reproduces itself from one generation to the actually do. next. The resulting cost to individuals and to society is enormous. The researchers anticipate that information acquired using these newer technologies will be Many committed individuals and organizations are superior to data collected in more traditional ways, working tirelessly to improve the life outcomes of such as interviewing adults about their economically disadvantaged children. But the childrearing behaviors. A video ethnography need for creative solutions remains. The removes the social desirability bias that can researchers recently learned about an exciting sometimes surface in survey responses, when early childhood development program that holds respondents give answers either to make real promise. It is simple to implement, highly themselves appear in a more favorable light or that effective, and—most important—has long-lasting they believe researchers want to hear. Moreover, effects. Young, disadvantaged children in this newer mode of data collection does not require Kingston, Jamaica were visited by a trained health participants to remember what happened or when. professional for one hour per week. The Finally, viewing families in their daily routines has intervention lasted two years and instilled the potential of serendipitously capturing events parenting skills while stimulating the children’s and behaviors that investigators might not have cognitive and psychosocial development. Twenty thought to ask about in standard surveys. years later, children in the treatment group exhibited: better math and verbal scores; greater Their data can be used to enrich the learning socio-emotional skills; improved mental health; outcomes of children. To what extent are schools higher school attainment; 25% greater earnings; aware of what’s going on in the home? If principals and a lower propensity to commit violent crime and teachers had a deeper understanding of the than children in the control group. family lives of their students, they could better adapt the curriculum and their instructional This program is unprecedented in terms of its practices to meet the needs of these young impact. Any one of these outcomes would have children. Moreover, a fuller appreciation of the marked an important achievement—but to observe heterogeneity that characterizes the daily lives of all six together is extraordinary. Although evidence children and their families would not only for the effectiveness of this intervention rests on strengthen a partnership between families and experience in a poor urban area of a developing schools but also help to inform and focus the country, the researchers have every reason to flourishing experimentation now occurring under believe that a program adapted to American cities the umbrella of K-12 school reform. would succeed in the U.S. too.

Thomas Espenshade is also leading a project The proposed ReachUp USA program addresses an entitled, ReachUp USA: Creating Durable important need in many disadvantaged Opportunity for Disadvantaged Children and communities throughout the country. Low-cost, early childhood interventions can help move

Office of Population Research 43 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 children from a path of cumulative disadvantage mash-ups, not easily categorized. She is looking at to one of cumulative advantage. The program can additive and emergent features in the resulting create durable opportunities for social mobility images. and reduce reliance on financial assistance and other forms of social support in adulthood and can Susan Fiske’s study on “Grolar Bears, Social transform lives for generations to come. Class, and Policy Relevance: Extraordinary Agendas for the Emerging 21st Century,” was  published in the European Journal of Social Psychology. This article first considers whether Patricia Fernández-Kelly’s new book, “The Hero’s social psychology is in the best or worst of times Fight: African Americans in West Baltimore and the and suggests that we are instead in extraordinary Shadow of the State,” shines light on overlooked times, given exciting agendas and potential policy communities. Based on ten years of research in relevance, if we are careful. The article illustrates West Baltimore during the last decade of the with two current research agendas—the hybrid twentieth century, this book provides an intimate vigor of multiple categories and the psychology of account of the experience of adults and children social class—that could inform policy. The essay living in one of the nation’s most dejected ghettoes then reflects on how researchers know when their and the effects deindustrialization had on the work is indeed ready for the public arena. urban poor. Fernández-Kelly stresses the role of Regarding hybrids: world immigration, social the state in shaping the lives of impoverished media, and global businesses are increasing. How populations in inner-city neighborhoods. She will this complicate people's stereotypes of each shows how ordinary Americans are treated as other? One agenda could build on the existing citizens and consumers but the racially segregated social and behavioral science of people as social and deprived are seen as objects of surveillance, hybrids, emerging with a framework to synthesize containment, and punishment. She provides new existing work and guide future research that insights into topics such as globalization and its better reflects our changing world. Policy effects on industrial decline and employment. In implications already emerge from the current addition to publishing her new book, Fernández- knowledge of hybrids. Regarding the social Kelly is also continuing her research on the psychology of social class, enough is not yet making of the Cuban-American working class in known to give advice, except to suggest Hialeah, Florida. questioning some common stereotypes, for example, about the economic behavior of lower-  income people. Before the budding social psychology of class can be ready for policy export, Susan Fiske’s research investigates how status the research results need replication, validation, divides people, and how people use different and generality. Overall, principles of exportable strategies to relate up and down hierarchies, policy insights include peer-reviewed standards, whether job ranks, racial positions, or social class. honest brokering, nonpartisan advice, and Higher-status people often assume respect for respectful, trustworthy communication. Social their own competence, but may seek to be liked psychology can take advantage of its extraordinary and trusted. Lower-status people may focus more times to be innovative and useful. on gaining respect than liking. Triggered spontaneously, these impression-management Susan Fiske’s examination on “Intergroup Biases: concerns—enacted verbally and nonverbally—work A Focus on Stereotype Content,” was published in at crossed purposes in mixed-status interactions. Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences. Here she Fiske also examines how fundamental dimensions notes that impressions of others, including of perceived competence and warmth drive societal groups, systematically array along two impressions of individuals and groups who are dimensions, warmth readily categorized, the basis of the last 15 years (trustworthiness/friendliness) and competence. of her work. Fiske is beginning to explore Social structures of competition and status stereotypes and impressions of people who are respectively predict these usually orthogonal dimensions. Prejudiced emotions (pride, pity,

Office of Population Research 44 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 contempt, and envy) target each quadrant, and are more likely to be depressed when educational distinct discriminatory behavioral tendencies aspirations exceed expectations. In Study 1 (N = result. The Stereotype Content Model (SCM) 85), aspiring to a thesis grade higher than one patterns generalize across time (20th century), expected predicted greater depression at the culture (every populated continent), level of beginning and end of the academic year. In Study analysis (targets from individuals to subtypes to 2 (N = 2820), aspiring to a level of education (e.g., groups to nations), and measures (from neural to attending college) higher than one expected to self-report to societal indicators). Future directions achieve predicted greater depression cross- include individual differences in endorsement of sectionally and five years later. In both cases the these cultural stereotypes and how perceivers view negative effects of aspiring high while expecting combinations across the SCM space. low persisted even after controlling for whether or not students achieved their educational With Nicolas Kervyn (Université catholique de aspirations. The findings highlight the danger of Louvain, Belgium) and Vincent Yzerbyt (Université teaching students to aspire higher without also catholique de Louvain, Belgium), Susan Fiske investing time and money to ensure that students examines “Foretelling the Primary Dimension of can reasonably expect to achieve their educational Social Perception: Symbolic and Realistic Threats goals. Together Predict Warmth in the Stereotype Content Model,” which was published in the Social  Psychology. In this work the authors examine the Stereotype Content Model (SCM) which posits two In collaboration with Lei Ding and Eileen Divringi fundamental dimensions of intergroup perception, (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia), Jackelyn warmth and competence, predicted by socio- Hwang is investigating the relationship between structural dimensions of competition and status, gentrification and residential mobility in respectively. However, the SCM has been Philadelphia from 2002-2014. The project challenged on claiming perceived competition as examines residential mobility rates, residential the socio-structural dimension that predicts destinations and origins, and credit score changes perceived warmth. The current research improves of adult residents in Philadelphia. Hwang and her by broadening warmth’s predictor (competition) to co-authors released a working paper (No. 15-36) in include both realistic and symbolic threat from December 2015 on the Federal Reserve Bank of Integrated Threat Theory (Study 1). Kervyn, Fiske Philadelphia website. and Yzerbyt also measure two components of the warmth dimension: sociability and morality. Study In a paper published in Social Forces, Jackelyn 2 tests new items to measure both threat and Hwang, Michael Hankinson (Harvard University), warmth. The new threat items significantly and Kreg Steven Brown (Harvard University) improve prediction of warmth, compared with investigate whether the concentration of subprime standard SCM items. Morality and sociability lending in minority neighborhoods during the correlate highly and do not differ much in their recent housing crisis varies by segregation levels predictability by competition/threat. across the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. Recent studies speculate that segregation created  distinct geographic markets that enabled subprime lenders and brokers to leverage the Margaret Frye along with Katharine H. Greenaway spatial proximity of minorities to (University of Queensland, Australia and Tegan disproportionately target minority neighborhoods. Cruwys (University of Queensland, Australia) This study integrates neighborhood-level data and published the article, “When Aspirations Exceed spatial measures of segregation to examine the Expectations: Quixotic Hope Increases Depression relationship between segregation and subprime among Students” in Plos One. They noted that a lending. Controlling for alternative explanations of paradox exists in modern schooling where the housing crisis, they find that segregation is students are simultaneously more positive about strongly associated with higher concentrations of the future and more depressed than ever. They subprime loans in clusters of minority census suggested that these two phenomena may be tracts but find no evidence of unequal lending linked. Two studies demonstrated that students patterns when they examine minority census

Office of Population Research 45 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 tracts in an aspatial way. Moreover, residents of and stratification, and the factors explaining minority census tracts in segregated metropolitan minority under-achievement in higher education. areas had higher likelihoods of receiving subprime With continued support from NICHD and the loans than their counterparts in less segregated MacArthur Foundation, Massey will continue to metropolitan areas. The findings demonstrate that focus on segregation, and racial stratification in segregation played a pivotal role in the housing higher education. crisis by creating relatively larger areas of concentrated minorities into which subprime Douglas Massey is currently working on a new loans could be efficiently and effectively version of his 1993 book American Apartheid: channeled. These results are consistent with Segregation and the Making of the Underclass. It existing but untested theories on the relationship will describe how levels and patterns of racial and between segregation and the housing crisis in ethnic segregation have changed since the 1980s metropolitan areas. and draw together work he has done over the past 25 years to clarify the causes of segregation and In a paper forthcoming in the Urban Affairs trace out its continuing consequences for African Review, Jackelyn Hwang draws upon cognitive Americans and, increasingly, Latinos. It will be maps and interviews with 56 residents living in a titled, American Apartheid: Segregation and the gentrifying area to examine how residents socially Perpetuation of Poverty (Harvard University Press). construct neighborhoods. Most minority Continuing his work on American Apartheid respondents, regardless of socioeconomic status Massey authored a chapter, “Confronting the and years of residency, defined their neighborhood Legacy of American Apartheid,” which is as a large and inclusive spatial area and used a forthcoming in Wachter, Susan M., and Ding, Lei single name and conventional boundaries, (Editors): Shared Prosperity in America’s invoking the area’s black cultural history and Communities. often directly responding to the alternative way residents defined their neighborhoods. Both long- Douglas Massey and Ph.D. candidate Jonathan term and newer white respondents defined their Tannen researched trends in black neighborhood as smaller spatial areas and used a hypersegregation from 1970 to 2010 in their note, variety of names and unconventional boundaries “A Research Note on Trends in Black that excluded areas that they perceived to have Hypersegregation,” published in Demography. In lower socioeconomic status and more crime. The this note, they use a consistently defined set of large and inclusive socially constructed metropolitan areas to study patterns and trends. neighborhood was eventually displaced. These Over the 40-year period (1970 to 2010), 52 findings shed light on how the internal narratives metropolitan areas were characterized by of neighborhood identity and boundaries are hypersegregation at one point or another, meaningfully tied to a broader structure of although not all at the same time. Over the period, inequality and shape how neighborhood identities the number of hypersegregated metropolitan areas and boundaries change or remain. declined by about one-half, but the degree of segregation within those areas characterized by  hypersegregation changed very little. As of 2010, roughly one-third of all black metropolitan Douglas Massey along with Camille Charles residents lived in a hypersegregated area. (University of Pennsylvania) is working on another book examining how the diversity of the black Douglas Massey along with Jacob Rugh (Brigham student population at selective colleges and Young University), and Len Albright (Northeastern universities (with respect to immigrant origins, University) have written an article, “Race, Space, socioeconomic status, multiracial origins, and an and Cumulative Disadvantage: A Case Study of integrated versus segregated background) affect the Subprime Lending Collapse,” published in the college experience of African Americans. Social Problems. In this article, they describe how residential segregation and individual racial In the coming year, Douglas Massey plans to disparities generate racialized patterns of continue research in the areas of urban studies subprime lending and lead to financial loss among

Office of Population Research 46 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 black borrowers in segregated cities. The authors Douglas Massey and Jonathan Rothwell’s conceptualize race as a cumulative disadvantage (Brookings Institution) paper entitled, “Geographic because of its direct and indirect effects on Effects on Intergenerational Income Mobility,” was socioeconomic status at the individual and published in Geography. The notion that where neighborhood levels, with consequences that one grows up affects future living standards is reverberate across a borrower’s life and between increasingly well established in social science. Yet generations. Using Baltimore, Maryland as a case research on intergenerational economic mobility study setting, we combine data from reports filed often ignores the geographic context of childhood, under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act with including neighborhood quality and local additional loan-level data from mortgage-backed purchasing power. The authors hypothesize that securities. The authors find that race and individual variation in intergenerational mobility is neighborhood racial segregation are critical factors partly attributable to regional and neighborhood explaining black disadvantage across successive conditions—most notably access to high-quality stages in the process of lending and foreclosure, schools. Using restricted Panel Study of Income controlling for differences in borrower credit Dynamics and census data, we find that scores, income, occupancy status, and loan-to- neighborhood income has roughly half the effect value ratios. They analyze the cumulative cost of on future earnings as parental income. They predatory lending to black borrowers in terms of estimate that lifetime household income would be reduced disposable income and lost wealth. They $635,000 dollars higher if people born into a find the cost to be substantial. Black borrowers bottom-quartile neighborhood would have been paid an estimated additional five to eleven percent raised in a top-quartile neighborhood. When in monthly payments and those that completed incomes are adjusted to regional purchasing foreclosure in the sample lost an excess of $2 power, these effects become even larger. The million in home equity. These costs were magnified neighborhood effect is two-thirds as large as the in mostly black neighborhoods and in turn heavily parental income effect, and the lifetime earnings concentrated in communities of color. By difference increases to $910,000. They test the elucidating the mechanisms that link black robustness of these findings to various segregation to discrimination we demonstrate how assumptions and alternative models, and replicate processes of cumulative disadvantage continue to the basic results using aggregated metropolitan- undermine black socioeconomic status in the U.S. level statistics of intergenerational income today. elasticities based on millions of Internal Revenue Service records. In “The Legacy of the 1968 Fair Housing Act,” published in Sociological Forum, Douglas Massey  examines Civil Rights activists in 1968 and their hope that the passage of the Fair Housing Act Magaly Sanchez-R was invited by the Global would lead to the residential desegregation of Salzburg Seminar to actively participate at the American society. In this article, he assesses the Seminar 549 Youths, Economics and Violence: degree to which this hope has been fulfilled. Implications for Future Conflict, at the “Social Massey begins by reviewing how the black ghetto System- Roles, Promises and Realities Panel,” came to be a universal feature of American cities where she presented “Youth Options and Violent during the twentieth century and the means by Life: Latino American Metropolis.” Her talk which high levels of black segregation were considered the analysis of social systems in achieved. He then describes the legislative relation to youth expectations as a way to maneuvers required to pass the Fair Housing Act understand if systems are sufficiently inclusive for and reviews its enforcement provisions to assess all youth perspectives, especially those at the its potential for achieving desegregation. After economic, social and political margin. While all examining trends in residential segregation since contemporary theories in social systems agree that 1970, Massey concludes with an appraisal of the societal systems share similar structures and prospects for integration as we move toward the operate through communication and that society fiftieth anniversary of the Act’s passage. exists only when individuals communicate, she

Office of Population Research 47 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 argues that one of the explanation of the youth Growth in Texas, Pia M. Orrenius, Jesús Cañas, exclusion and violence expression will be that and Michael Weiss (Editors), Tienda states that society communicates just and only with the Texas is positioned to harness a demographic “integrated individuals.” The youths who are not dividend—a productivity boost enabled by human integrated (through traditional mechanisms) capital investments in its outsized minority youth continue to reproduce themselves by other logics cohorts. She argues, Texas’ political leadership of exclusion and violence, as a response to the must act decisively and boldly to close impossibility of communicating their frustrations. achievement gaps along racial and ethnic lines Her analysis considered the youths in Latin and to raise college completion levels. America, specifically Venezuelan. Drawing on selective national and international  comparisons, she shows that Texas is falling behind in college completion rates even as the Edward Telles continues to lead the Project on statewide share of graduates continues to inch up. Ethnicity and Race in Latin America (PERLA), Racial and ethnic differentials are more troubling which is funded in part by the Ford Foundation, because the largest gaps correspond to the fast- by applying his comparative approach. Made up of growing Hispanic population. Underinvestment in researchers across the United States and Latin higher education has created a college squeeze America, PERLA involves two sets of surveys that will constrain Texas’ ability to harness a meant to address a lack of demographic data and demographic dividend. comparative analysis about Latin America. Marta Tienda also wrote a chapter, “Affirmative In the first stage, Telles' group added a set of Action and its Discontents: America’s Obsession questions about ethnicity to the Americas with Race,” which was published in Past as Barometer, a Vanderbilt University-led survey in Prologue: The National Academy of Education at 50, 24 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. National Academy of Education, Michael J. Feuer In the second stage, PERLA conducted in-depth Amy I. Berman, and Richard C. Atkinson (Editors). surveys of more than 100 questions on topics This chapter addresses the U.S. Supreme Court’s such as racial attitudes, inequality and health in decision to rehear the case of Fisher v. University Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. Telles and his of Texas, in the context of race consideration in collaborators published their results in a book admission decisions which was alleged to violate titled, “Pigmentocracies.” One of the striking the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th findings Telles noted is that skin color is a better Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. indicator than ethnoracial identity (what people call themselves — black, mulatto, white, mestizo Health and Wellbeing or indigenous) in understanding income and educational inequality in Colombia, Ecuador, Peru 2015: Abigail Aiken, Elizabeth Armstrong, João and Mexico. In those countries, survey data based Biehl, Jeanne Brooks-Gunn, Anne Case, Janet on ethnoracial identity suggested that blacks and Currie, Angus Deaton, Margaret Frye, Noreen mulattos may no longer suffer discrimination. Goldman, Bryan Grenfell, Sara McLanahan, C. However, interviewers also recorded respondents' Jessica E. Metcalf, Elizabeth Paluck, Marta skin color, and Telles found a strong correlation Tienda, James Trussell, Tom Vogl. between skin color and income, occupation and education levels, with those with darker skin tones Elizabeth Armstrong is working on a book faring worse on measures of equality than those manuscript, tentatively titled, How We Begin: The with fair skin. Origins of Fetal Personhood. The book explores the evolution of the belief that the fetus is a person in  medicine, law, and popular culture. Armstrong is also interested in cultural attitudes and beliefs In Marta Tienda’s chapter titled “Texas’s about risk during pregnancy and childbirth and Educational Challenge: Demographic Dividend or policies related to maternity care in the United Bust?” in Ten-Gallon Economy Sizing Up Economic States. She is conducting research on medical

Office of Population Research 48 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 professional attitudes towards home birth in the co-coordinating a collaborative network on Race U.S. and on popular practices around childbirth. and Citizenship in the Americas. She has also investigated popular cultural practices regarding the placenta and is currently  analyzing medical and scientific texts on placental form and function. In the past two years, Anne Case’s research has focused on changing patterns of morbidity and Elizabeth Armstrong anticipates continuing to mortality in midlife in the U.S., with a focus (to work on reproduction from cultural and policy date) on white non-Hispanics in middle age. In perspectives. She is beginning several smaller- academic year 2016-17, she plans to examine many scale research projects into various aspects of of the questions that this research has brought to maternity care in the U.S. One of these is a the fore. These will include differences in health and history of policies and practices around pain relief mortality between working class and wealthier during childbirth in the 20th century. Another Americans, differences between races and investigates how negative birth experiences are ethnicities, between men and women, between the framed in comparative perspective, whether as a U.S. and other OECD countries, and between age form of PTSD in the U.S., as violence against groups, to try to better understand the underlying women in Latin America, or as patient abuse in causes of the reversal of mortality decline and of the U.K. morbidity decline that is found among whites in middle-age in U.S.  Anne Case and co-author Angus Deaton, João Biehl’s main research centers on medical published a National Bureau of Economic Research anthropology, the social studies of science and (NBER) Working Paper titled, “Suicide, Age, and religion, global health, subjectivity, ethnography, Wellbeing: An Empirical Investigation.” Together and social and critical theory (with a regional they found that suicide rates, life evaluation, and focus on Latin America and Brazil). His present measures of affect are all plausible measures of research explores the social impact of large-scale the mental health and wellbeing of populations. treatment programs in resource-poor settings and Yet in the settings they examined, correlations the role of the judiciary in administering public between suicide and measured wellbeing are at health in Brazil. best inconsistent. Differences in suicides between men and women, between Hispanics, blacks, and João Biehl is currently writing The Valley of whites, between age groups for men, between Lamentation, a historical ethnography of the countries or U.S. states, between calendar years, Mucker War, a religious war that shattered and between days of the week, do not match German-Brazilian communities in the 19th differences in life evaluation. By contrast, reports century. He is also working on a book titled, of physical pain are strongly predictive of suicide Anthropology of Becoming, and is collaborating on in many contexts. The prevalence of pain is a book project on Oikographia, which foregrounds increasing among middle-aged Americans, and is the house as a key site of empirical and accompanied by a substantial increase in suicides conceptual analysis. and deaths from drug and alcohol poisoning. Their measure of pain is now highest in middle age— João Biehl’s present ethnographic research when life evaluation and positive affect are at a explores the social impact of large-scale treatment minimum. In the absence of the pain epidemic, programs in resource-poor settings, the role of the suicide and life evaluation are likely unrelated, judiciary in administering public health, and the leaving unresolved whether either one is a useful emergence of the category of patient-citizen- overall measure of population wellbeing. consumers in Brazil. Biehl is also coordinating a research and teaching partnership between Anne Case and Angus Deaton’s paper, “Rising Princeton University and the University of São Morbidity and Mortality in Midlife among White Paulo centered on medical anthropology, global Non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st Century,” health, and the social markers of difference, and is published in Proceedings of the National Academy

Office of Population Research 49 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 of Sciences, documents a marked increase in the foreclosure crisis. Together they found that living all-cause mortality of middle-aged white, non- in a neighborhood with a spike in foreclosures is Hispanic men and women in the United States associated with significant increases in urgent between 1999 and 2013. This change reversed unscheduled visits, including increases in visits decades of progress in mortality and was unique for preventable conditions. The estimated to the United States; no other rich country saw a relationships cannot be accounted for by similar turnaround. The midlife mortality reversal increasing unemployment, declines in housing was confined to white non-Hispanics; black non- prices, migration, or by people switching from out- Hispanics and Hispanics at midlife, and those patient providers to hospitals. aged 65 and above in every racial and ethnic group, continued to see mortality rates fall. This  increase for whites was largely accounted for by increasing death rates from drug and alcohol Angus Deaton enthusiastically reviewed, “On poisonings, suicide, and chronic liver diseases and Tyrannical Experts and Expert Tyrants,” for the cirrhosis. Although all education groups saw Review of Austrian Economics in July 2015. He increases in mortality from suicide and described William Easterly’s Tyranny of Experts as poisonings, and an overall increase in external a paean to freedom, democracy, and the rights of cause mortality, those with less education saw the the poor. It rightly damns the “technological most marked increases. Rising midlife mortality illusion” that development is an engineering rates of white non-Hispanics were paralleled by problem, not a political problem that cannot be increases in midlife morbidity. Self-reported solved by experts, particularly not by outside declines in health, mental health, and ability to experts. Deaton went on to say that “it is too conduct activities of daily living, and increases in optimistic to believe that rights and democracy by chronic pain and inability to work, as well as themselves will guarantee growth and prosperity, clinically measured deteriorations in liver and the argument that rights and democracy are function, all point to growing distress in this both necessary and sufficient for population population. The authors comment on potential health is largely wishful thinking.” economic causes and consequences of this deterioration. 

 Margaret Frye’s research focuses on a fundamental problem at the intersection of Janet Currie’s work continues to follow several demography and cultural sociology: how does threads. First, she is concerned with investigating culture influence the plans and choices of the fetal origins hypothesis, and examining the individuals, producing the patterned behavior that long-term impacts of health shocks in utero. one observes? She examines how socially Second, the evaluation (and sometimes unintended structured standards of morality influence life consequences) of programs or initiatives aimed at course decision-making in contexts undergoing improving child health. Third, work on pollution rapid cultural change. At each milestone on the and health, generally investigating the effect of low- transition to adulthood–continuing in school, level exposures. Fourth, the organization of medical starting a serious relationship, and having sex– care and what determines small-area (and even her work demonstrates that individuals shape and within hospital) differences in the ways that similar reshape their life trajectories in accordance with patients are treated. these moral frames. Frye’s empirical research has primarily been based in Malawi, where she has In“Is there a Link Between Foreclosure and looked at the influence of culture on educational Health?” published in the American Economic choices, romantic experiences, and, most recently, Journal: Economic Policy, Janet Currie and Erdal men’s evaluations of women’s sexual desirability. Tekin (Georgia State University) investigate the relationship between foreclosures and hospital In a manuscript entitled, “Ideals as Anchors for visits using data on all foreclosures and all Relationship Experiences,” published in American hospital and emergency room visits from four Sociological Review, Margaret Frye along with states that were among the hardest hit by the Jenny Trinitapoli (Pennsylvania State University)

Office of Population Research 50 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 conducted research on young-adult sexuality in and in Mexico. Recent papers evaluate whether sub-Saharan Africa which typically conceptualizes the survival advantage of Mexican Americans sex as an individual-level risk behavior. They (relative to whites) is likely to endure in coming introduced a new approach that connects the decades, whether there is evidence that less conditions surrounding the initiation of sex with healthy Mexican immigrants in the U.S. are more subsequent relationship wellbeing, examines likely to return to Mexico than their healthier relationships as sequences of interdependent counterparts, and whether older Mexicans whose events, and indexes relationship experiences to children reside in the U.S. experience less social individually held ideals. New card-sort data from support and poorer health than those whose southern Malawi capture young women’s children remain in Mexico. relationship experiences and their ideals in a sequential framework. Using optimal matching,  they measured the distance between ideal and experienced relationship sequences to (1) assess Bryan Grenfell co-authored a paper with Huaiyu the associations between ideological congruence Tian (Beijing Normal University), Sen Zhoub and perceived relationship well-being, (2) compare (Tsinghua University), Lu Dong (Beijing Normal this ideal-based approach to other experience- University), Thomas P. Van Boeckel (Princeton based alternatives, and (3) identify individual- and University, Department of Ecology and couple-level correlates of congruence between Evolutionary Biology) et al. entitled, “Avian ideals and experiences in the romantic realm. Influenza H5N1 Viral and Bird Migration Networks Their research showed that congruence between in Asia,” which was published in the Proceedings ideals and experiences conveys relationship of the National Academy of Sciences. This paper wellbeing along four dimensions: expressions of reports that the spatial spread of the highly love and support, robust communication habits, pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 and its perceived biological safety, and perceived long-term persistence in Asia have resulted in relationship stability. They further showed that avian influenza panzootics and enormous congruence is patterned by socioeconomic status economic losses in the poultry sector. However, an and supported by shared ideals within romantic understanding of the regional long-distance dyads. They argue that conceiving of ideals as transmission and seasonal patterns of the virus is anchors for how sexual experiences are manifest still lacking. In this study, the authors present a advances current understandings of romantic phylogeographic approach to reconstruct the viral relationships, and suggest that this approach has migration network. They show that within each applications for other domains of life. wild fowl migratory flyway, the timing of H5N1 outbreaks and viral migrations are closely  associated, but little viral transmission was observed between the flyways. The bird migration Noreen Goldman, in collaboration with Andrea network is shown to better reflect the observed Graham (Princeton University, Department of viral gene sequence data than other networks and Ecology and Evolutionary Biology) who has contributes to seasonal H5N1 epidemics in local conducted assays of immune markers derived regions and its large-scale transmission along from frozen specimens in the Taiwan survey, has flyways. These findings have potentially far- just begun to explore linkages between immune reaching consequences, improving their senescence, inflammation and the health and understanding of how bird migration drives the survival of older adults. Together with Dan periodic reemergence of H5N1 in Asia. Notterman (Princeton University, Molecular Biology Department), she will be using genetic Bryan Grenfell along with Takahashi, S. (Princeton information to explore determinants of depression University, Department of Ecology and and cognitive function of older adults in this Evolutionary Biology) and Metcalf C. J., Ferrari, M. survey. J. (Pennsylvania State University), Truelove, S. A. (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public In a separate project, Noreen Goldman has been Health) et al. continue to analyze vaccination examining the health of Mexicans both in the U.S. strategies for measles and rubella in Africa and

Office of Population Research 51 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 other endemic countries. The major application and Jeanne Brooks-Gunn (Columbia University) this year was a novel assessment of the potential conducted a cross-national comparison of consequences of the West African Ebola epidemic children’s body mass patterns by race/ethnicity on vaccination rates and epidemic potential of and mothers’ nativity status. The study was the measles, published in Science, in a paper entitled, first to examine race/ethnic and maternal nativity “Reduced Vaccination and the Risk of Measles and differences in BMI trajectories in both countries. Other Childhood Infections post-Ebola.” This Using data from the Fragile Families and Child article states that the Ebola epidemic in West Wellbeing Study and England’s Millennium Cohort Africa has caused substantial morbidity and Study, the researchers documented significant mortality. The outbreak has also disrupted health race/ethnic differences in initial BMI and BMI care services, including childhood vaccinations, trajectories among children in both countries, with creating a second public health crisis. They project all non-white groups having significantly steeper that after six to 18 months of disruptions, a large BMI growth trajectories than whites. Nativity connected cluster of children unvaccinated for differences in BMI trajectories varied by measles would accumulate across Guinea, Liberia, race/ethnic group and were only statistically and Sierra Leone. This pool of susceptibility significantly higher for children of foreign-born increases the expected size of a regional measles blacks in England. outbreak from 127,000 to 227,000 cases after 18 months, resulting in 2000 to 16,000 additional  deaths (comparable to the numbers of Ebola deaths reported thus far). There is a clear path to C. Jessica E. Metcalf’s research over the past two avoiding outbreaks of childhood vaccine- years has centered on the within-host demography preventable diseases once the threat of Ebola of pathogens, or pathogen population growth, begins to recede: an aggressive regional spread, and clearance within our bodies, shapes vaccination campaign aimed at age groups left their ecology and evolution, driving outcomes of unprotected because of health care disruptions. public health relevance such as the emergence of drug resistance. She has worked to articulate the Bryan Grenfell has generated the first major model core issues in a range of perspective papers, and via of the spatiotemporal dynamics and control of empirical work. The cross-scale dynamics of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China, on the infectious disease drives its impact on human eve of vaccine deployment. Grenfell has generated health, yet empirical studies tend to either focus on a major study on the dynamics of morbilivirus the within-host aspect, or the between-host aspect infections of cetaceans, in the face of a major (transmission). She has also developed methods to epidemic. Other work this year explored the bridge this gap. Both within-host and between-host dynamics of malaria, chikungunya virus and other dynamics will contribute to defining landscapes of infections. immunity, a continuing focus of her work, and one that she has tackled in contexts of immediate public Antibiotic resistance is a major threat to health relevance, such as in the wake of the Ebola humanity. Bryan Grenfell has published the first outbreak. Overall her research blends basic major study of the global distribution of antibiotic ecological research and important applications. The use in the meat and dairy industries, as well as a underlying synthesis of demography and disease detailed review of the impact of coinfection on dynamics, across scales ranging from within host to resistance. across and between countries is a distinguishing feature of her work.  Over the next two years C. Jessica E. Metcalf will In “Variation in Child Body Mass Patterns by continue to focus on quantifying disease in motion Race/Ethnicity and Maternal Nativity Status in as a core question in public health, and one that is the United States and England,” published in often predicated on human migration and Maternal and Child Health, Sara McLanahan, movement. She is leveraging novel data streams Melissa Martinson (University of Washington) such as mobile phone call data records to capture

Office of Population Research 52 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 both the patterns of seasonal human aggregation In their study titled, “Birthing, Nativity and and its effects on transmission for directly Maternal Depression: Australia and the United transmitted pathogens (measles, rubella), but also States” published in International Migration patterns of local introduction for a broader range of Review. Melissa Martinson (University of infections (measles to malaria) for a range of Washington) and Marta Tienda analyzes two birth countries and contexts. Patterns of re-introduction, cohort surveys, the Longitudinal Study of in particular, are of increasing relevance in a public Australian Children and Early Childhood health landscape where disease elimination and Longitudinal Study, to examine variation in eradication remain a central concern. Climatic maternal depression by nativity, duration of drivers may shape both human movement and also residence, age at migration, and English pathogen ecology. Metcalf is also collaborating with proficiency in Australia and the U.S. Both researchers at NOAA/GFDL to describe climate countries have long immigrant traditions and a influences on human movement at a range of common language. The results demonstrate that scales, and to titrate the relative importance of U.S. immigrant mothers are significantly less these direct and indirect effects for a range of depressed than native-born mothers, but maternal pathogens. This will open the way to longer term depression does not differ by nativity in Australia. predictions of the outcome of climate change on Moreover, the association between duration of human movement and the burden of infectious residence and maternal depression is not linear: disease. Recent arrivals and long-term residents exhibit the  highest depression levels. Lack of English proficiency exacerbates maternal depression in Two basic ideas motivate Elizabeth Paluck’s Australia, but protects against depression in the research. The first idea is that social U.S. Differences in immigration regimes and psychological theory offers potentially useful tools welfare systems likely contribute to the differing for changing society in constructive ways. The salience of nativity for maternal depression. second idea is that studying attempts to change society is one of the most fruitful ways to develop  and assess social psychological theory. Much of Paluck’s work has focused on prejudice and Abigail Aiken and James Trussell’s report “Recent conflict reduction, using large-scale field Advances in Contraception”, in the F100Prime experiments to test theoretically driven Reports, focused on intrauterine contraceptives interventions. (IUC), contraceptive implants, and emergency contraceptives. Together, they reviewed recent Despite a surge in policy and research attention to advances in contraceptive development and conflict and bullying among adolescents, Elizabeth discussed progress in policies to improve access to Paluck finds little evidence to suggest that current the most effective methods. They report on the interventions reduce school conflict. Using a large- shift in practice towards routinely providing IUCs scale field experiment in Changing Climates of and implants to young and nulliparous women, Conflict: A Social Network Experiment in 56 Schools prompted in part by the reduced diameter of the Paluck shows that it is possible to reduce conflict insertion tube for the Mirena IUC and the with a student-driven intervention. By development of a smaller IUC called Skyla. encouraging a small set of students to take a Additionally, they describe the new SCu300A public stance against typical forms of conflict at intrauterine ball and the development of an their school, Paluck’s intervention reduced overall implant called Nexplanon, which comes with a levels of conflict by an estimated 30%. Network preloaded inserter. They also discuss the efficacy analyses reveal that certain kinds of students of ulipristal acetate versus levonorgestrel for (called “social referents”) have an outsized emergency contraception, especially for women influence over social norms and behavior at the who weigh more than 75 kg. Finally, in light of the school. The study demonstrates the power of peer increasing interest in providing IUCs and implants influence for changing climates of conflict, and to women in the immediate postpartum and post suggests which students to involve in those abortion periods, they consider the rationale for efforts. this change in practice and review the progress that has been made so far in the U.S.

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The commentary, “Immediate Postpartum In light of the Millennium Development Goal of Provision of Highly Effective Reversible reducing the worldwide maternal mortality ratio by Contraception” by Abigail Aiken, Catherine Aiken three-quarters by 2015, and the resolution of the (University of Cambridge, UK), James Trussell, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe and Katherine Guthrie (Sexual and Reproductive to reduce unintended pregnancy among EU Healthcare Partnership, Hull, UK) was published member states, policies promoting the widespread in An International Journal of Obstetrics & availability of immediate postpartum IUCs and Gynaecology. This commentary notes that implants represent an important step towards unintended pregnancies are associated with a improving women’s reproductive health worldwide. higher risk of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes, particularly when they occur within a  short time interval from a previous birth. Early access to highly effective reversible intrauterine The Health Grand Challenge funded by the contraceptives (IUCs) and contraceptive implants Woodrow Wilson School has awarded Tom Vogl a in the postpartum period has been demonstrated Seed Grant for the 2015-2016 proposal, “Pollution, to help women prevent unintended and rapid- Early-Life Health, and Child Development in repeat pregnancies. The authors discuss several Developing Countries.” This proposal seeks to compelling reasons for the immediate postpartum launch a research agenda that examines provision of such methods to women who desire environmental influences on early-life health and them. child development in developing countries. Funding from an HGC small seed grant will enable Intrauterine contraceptives (both copper the completion of the agenda’s first study, on the intrauterine devices and levonorgestrel-releasing health consequences of air pollution from the intrauterine systems) and implants are in the harvesting of sugarcane, an important global highest tier of contraceptive effectiveness because energy source. Three new studies will examine the they require no active adherence on the part of the effects of agricultural air pollution, urban water user. The provision of these methods in hospital pollution, and slum conditions on child health and following delivery is particularly attractive because development. it is convenient for women who may be highly motivated to prevent another pregnancy, and is Much of the proposed research focuses on Brazil, logistically optimal in that health professionals so a key component of the proposal is its funding trained in placement could be readily available. of undergraduate summer field research abroad. Despite previous concerns, the immediate On campus, undergraduate and graduate postpartum placement of IUCs and implants is students will have opportunities to collaborate on also extremely safe. There is no increased risk of the proposed research, and findings will be pain, bleeding, infection, or uterine perforation for incorporated into a range of interdisciplinary IUCs placed immediately (within 10 minutes of teaching activities. Beyond this educational use, placental delivery), compared with delayed the findings of the proposed research will have placement (weeks later). important implications for policymakers in developing countries seeking to balance The safety of immediate post-delivery placement of population health with energy sustainability, IUCs and implants is reflected in the World Health agricultural livelihood, and rapid urbanization. Organization Medical Eligibility Criteria for Contraceptive Use (WHO MEC), which provides Migration and Development evidence-based guidance regarding medical eligibility for specific contraceptive methods. This 2015: Alícia Adserà, Anne Case, Rafaela guidance is used by specialists in sexual and Dancygier, Patricia Fernández-Kelly, Tod reproductive health worldwide to ensure that Hamilton, Jackelyn Hwang, Douglas Massey, women are not exposed to inappropriate risk, Alejandro Portes, Magaly Sanchez-R, Marta while at the same time are not denied access to Tienda. methods that are medically appropriate. It has been adapted for use in several countries, including the UK and the U.S.

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By studying the role of linguistic proximity, widely international mobility of workers, with potentially spoken languages, linguistic enclaves and large individual and social returns through language‐based immigration policy requirements, increased worker productivity and quicker socio- Alícia Adserà and her co-author Mariola Pytliková economic integration of new arrivals. (University of Ostrava, Czech Republic) examine the importance of language in international  migration from multiple angles. To this aim, they collected a unique data set on immigration flows In “Social Protection and Labor Market: Outcomes and stocks in 30 Organisation for Economic of Youth in South Africa” published in Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Development and Cultural Change, Anne Case and destinations from all world countries over the co-authors Cally Ardington (University of Cape period 1980–2010 and constructed a set of Town, South Africa), Till Bärnighausen (Harvard linguistic proximity measures. Migration rates University), and Alicia Menendez (University of increase with linguistic proximity and with English Chicago) examine an Apartheid-driven spatial at destination. Softer linguistic requirements for mismatch between workers and jobs leads to high naturalization and larger linguistic communities at job search costs for people living in rural areas of destination encourage more migrants to move. South Africa—costs that many young people Linguistic proximity matters less when local cannot pay. Close examination of whether the linguistic networks are larger. Their findings are arrival of a social grant—specifically a generous published in their paper, “The Role of Language in state-funded old-age pension given to men and Shaping International Migration” published in The women above prime age—enhances the ability of Economic Journal. young men in rural areas to seek better work opportunities elsewhere. Based on eight waves of Alícia Adserà’s article, “Language and Culture as socioeconomic data on household living Drivers of Migration, Linguistic and Cultural arrangements and household members’ Barriers affect International Migration Flows,” characteristics and employment status, collected published by The Institute for the Study of Labor between 2001 and 2011 at a demographic (IZA) World of Labor, examines the increase in surveillance site in KwaZulu-Natal, the authors migration flows to developed countries in recent find that young men are significantly more likely decades, as well as the increased number of to become labor migrants when someone in their countries from which migrants arrive. Thus, it is household becomes age-eligible for the old-age increasingly important to consider what culture pension. But this effect applies only to those who and language role differences play in migration have completed high school (matric), who are on decisions. Recent work shows that culture and average 8 percentage points more likely to migrate language may explain migration patterns to for work when their households become pension developed countries even better than traditional eligible, compared with other potential labor economic variables, such as income per capita and migrants. The authors also find that, upon unemployment rates in destination and origin pension loss, it is the youngest migrants who are countries. Differences in culture and language the most likely to return to their sending may create barriers that prevent the full households, perhaps because they are the least realization of the potential economic gains from likely to be self-sufficient at the time the pension international mobility. Differences in language and is lost. The evidence is consistent with binding customs between countries imply costs that credit constraints limiting young men from poorer potential migrants likely consider in deciding households from seeking more lucrative work whether to migrate and where to go. Fluency in elsewhere. the language of the destination country—and ease of learning it—can facilitate the transfer of  migrants’ skills to the new labor market, contributing to the global interchange of skills and In, “Why Are Immigrants Underrepresented in stimulating economic growth. Policies promoting Politics? Evidence from Sweden,” published in instruction in foreign languages can foster the American Political Science Review, Rafaela

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Dancygier, Karl-Oskar Lindgren (Uppsala globalization, scholars have investigated effects on University), Sven Oskarsson (Uppsala University), the basis of skills, industries, and occupation. and Kåre Vernby (Stockholm University) examine More recent research has developed increasingly how the deep challenges of widespread and complex models that take into account differences persistent political underrepresentation of in the productivity of firms, in the skill and immigrant-origin minorities pose deep challenges cultural profiles of domestic and migrant labor, to democratic practice and norms. What accounts and in economic conditions across and within for this underrepresentation? Two types of countries. The first part of this chapter provides competing explanations are prevalent in the an overview of this literature. In the second part literature: accounts that base minority they re-examine the role of class. Though the underrepresentation on individual-level resources scholarship they review paints an increasingly and accounts that emphasize political opportunity complex picture of globalization’s distributional structures. However, due to the lack of data consequences and its ensuing effects on suitable for testing these explanations, existing preferences, they contend that class still remains research has not been able to adjudicate between significant in ordering preferences: Low-skill these theories. Using registry-based microdata workers have often been identified as the group covering the entire Swedish adult population most likely to voice its discontent about economic between 1991 and 2010 the study is the first to liberalization and cultural opening. This finding is empirically evaluate these alternative in line with skill-based economic models that explanations. They examine election outcomes to predict that low-skill workers in high-skill municipal councils over the course of six elections economies should suffer most from globalization. and find that variation in individual-level As they illustrate, however, it can also be resources cannot explain immigrants’ consistent with accounts that focus on the underrepresentation. Further, when comparing sectoral and occupational threats posed by the immigrants and natives who face comparable global flow of goods and labor. By examining political opportunity structures a large exposure to trade, FDI, and immigration together, representation gap remains. Instead, they argue they show that low-skill workers in advanced that discrimination by party gatekeepers plays a industrialized democracies cannot easily escape more significant role in perpetuating the the labor market pressures that globalization underrepresentation of immigrants than do generates. Those low-skill workers who are individual resources or structural variables. This relatively sheltered from the threats associated paper won the 2015 SAGE Best Paper Prize given with outsourcing and trade are most vulnerable to by American Political Science Association’s (APSA) competition arising from immigration, and vice Comparative Politics. versa. Further, the labor market pressures experienced by low-skilled workers occur In their chapter, “Globalization, Labor Markets, alongside and are inseparable from exposure to and Class Cleavages,” in The Politics of Advanced cultural diversity. More than their high-skill Capitalism, Beramendi, Pablo, Silja Häusermann, counterparts, low-skilled workers experience Hebert Kitschelt and Hanspeter Kriesi (Editors), economic and cultural threats jointly. Rafaela Dancygier and Stefanie Walter’s (University of Zürich, Institute for Political  Science) focus on the impact of globalization on voter preferences. To do so, they consider the Patricia Fernández-Kelly published a book with labor market consequences of trade, foreign direct Alejandro Portes entitled The Grassroots and the investment, and immigration, which have had State: Transnational Immigrant Organizations in immediate effects on voters in advanced capitalist Five Continents. The volume compiles findings democracies. The globalization of production and from a comparative study of transnational the international flow of labor generate gains and immigrant organizations operating in developing losses in ways that cut both along and across and developed countries. This is the first traditional class cleavages, especially when such comprehensive investigation of the connections, globalization has uneven sectoral effects. To dynamics, and evolution of immigrant identify who benefits and who loses from organizations in key parts of the world.

Office of Population Research 56 OPR Research Annual Report 2015

 measures, this article compares Chicago, a highly segregated city and predominantly Hispanic In the Journal of Health and Social Behavior, Tod immigrant destination, with Seattle, a Hamilton, Tia Palermo (Stony Brook University) predominantly white city with high levels of Asian and Tiffany Green’s (Virginia Commonwealth immigration. The findings show that immigration University) paper, “Health Assimilation among and its correlates have distinct and evolving Hispanic Immigrants in the United States: The relationships with neighborhood changes that are Impact of Ignoring Arrival-cohort Effects,” the embedded in the racial and immigrant histories of authors reviewed the large literature that each city, and that gentrification perpetuates documents that Hispanic immigrants have a racial and ethnic inequality in both cities. health advantage over their U.S.-born counterparts upon arrival in the United States. In a paper forthcoming in Demography, Jackelyn Few studies, however, have disentangled the Hwang examines the role of immigration in the effects of immigrants’ arrival cohort from their rise of gentrification in the late twentieth century. tenure of U.S. residence, an omission that could Analysis of U.S. Census and American Community produce imprecise estimates of the degree of Survey data over 24 years and field surveys of health decline experienced by Hispanic gentrification in low-income neighborhoods across immigrants as their U.S. tenure increases. Using 23 U.S. cities reveal that most gentrifying data from the 1996-to-2014 waves of the March neighborhoods were “global” in the 1970s or Current Population Survey, they show that the became so over time. An early presence of Asians health (i.e., self-rated health) of Hispanic was positively associated with gentrification; and immigrants varies by both arrival cohort and U.S. an early presence of Hispanics was positively tenure for immigrants hailing from most of the associated with gentrification in neighborhoods primary sending countries/regions of Hispanic with substantial shares of blacks and negatively immigrants. They also found evidence that associated with gentrification in cities with high acculturation plays an important role in Hispanic growth, where ethnic enclaves were more determining the health trajectories of Hispanic likely to form. Low-income, predominantly black immigrants. With respect to self-rated health, neighborhoods and neighborhoods that became however, their findings demonstrate that omitting Asian and Hispanic destinations remained arrival-cohort measures from health assimilation ungentrified despite the growth of gentrification models may result in overestimates of the degree during the late twentieth century. The findings of downward health assimilation experienced by suggest that the rise of immigration after 1965 Hispanic immigrants. brought pioneers to many low-income central-city neighborhoods, spurring gentrification in some  neighborhoods and forming ethnic enclaves in others. In a paper published in an issue of The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social  Science focusing on residential inequality in American neighborhoods and communities, In the past two years, Douglas Massey’s research Jackelyn Hwang examines how the rise of has focused on patterns and trends, causes and immigration and its associated racial and ethnic consequences of residential segregation in the U.S. changes relate to gentrification. In the decades and Mexico-U.S. migration and the following the 1965 Hart-Celler Act, gentrification counterproductive consequences of border has occurred more in cities with high levels of enforcement. immigration and in neighborhoods with higher levels of immigrants. These relationships, however, Douglas Massey, Jorge Durand (Universidad de vary by the ways in which a city is racially Guadalajara), and OPR’s Karen Pren’s chapter, segregated and by the extent to which its “Militarization of the Mexico-U.S. Border and its immigrant population has been incorporated. Effect on the Circularity of Migrants,” is published Using crime data, surveys, and new gentrification in Diego Acosta Arcarazo and Anja Wiesbrock

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(Editors) Global Migration: Myths and Realities. Social Challenge uses findings from earlier This chapter shows that measures such as the published work to illustrate how public policies militarization of the border are not only ineffective enacted without any real understanding of in limiting the number of irregular migrants, they underlying social and economic policies can be also lead to increasing death rates among counter-productive. Specifically, immigration unauthorized border crossers, rising costs of reforms enacted by the U.S. Congress in the mid- crossing the border, and longer stays for migrants 1960s were enacted with the aim of eliminating working in the U.S. in order to pay off the crossing racism from federal immigration law, but paid no costs. attention to the underlying reality of a well- established, largely circular flow of legal migrants Douglas Massey, Jorge Durand (Universidad de between Mexico and the United States. Lacking Guadalajara), and Karen Pren’s paper, “Border access to legal visas, migrants continued to enter Enforcement and Return Migration by without authorization, but this increase in illegal Documented and Undocumented Mexicans,” in migration set off a chain reaction of increasingly Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies uses data conservative sentiment and restrictionist policies from the Mexican Migration Project (MMP) to that increased, rather than decreased, the number compute probabilities of departure and return for of undocumented migrants in the United States, first and later trips to the United States in both producing a marginalized population in peril of documented and undocumented status. They then forming a very disadvantaged underclass. The estimate statistical models to analyze the chapter warns policymakers in other countries to determinants of departure and return according to avoid intervening in complex social and economic legal status. Prior to 1986, Mexico-U.S. migration systems without properly understanding their was characterized by great circularity, but since operation. then circularity has declined markedly for undocumented migrants but increased Douglas Massey’s “Threat Evasion as Motivation dramatically for documented migrants. Whereas for Migration,” published in the American return migration by undocumented migrants Sociological Association’s International Migration dropped in response to the massive increase in Fall 2015 Newsletter, World on the Move states border enforcement, that of documented migrants that the motivations for human migration are did not. At present, the Mexico-U.S. migration diverse, but can generally be classified under five system has reached a new equilibrium in which basic rubrics: material improvement, risk undocumented migrants are caged in as long-term management, symbolic gratification, social settlers in the U.S. while documented migrants connection, and threat evasion. Most theoretical increasingly range freely and circulate back and work in recent decades has focused on forth across the border within rising frequency. motivations connected with material improvement, risk management, and social connection. Less Douglas Massey’s next major book project will be attention has been paid to symbolic gratification an analysis of the roots of America’s dysfunctional and threat evasion. The desire of people to immigration and border policies and how they led improve their material circumstances has long to the demographic transformation of U.S. society, been recognized as a key motivation for migration. a well-entrenched unauthorized population Migration motivated by a desire for material gain lacking civil rights, a massive white backlash, and is most commonly theorized by neoclassical the current political stalemate. He has also begun economics, which views the migratory decision as work on a book analyzing how the religious belief a cost-benefit analysis whereby rational, utility- and practice affect patterns and processes of maximizing actors balance the gains to be had by immigrant integration in the United States. working at various geographic locations against the costs of migrating to these places. Individuals Douglas Massey’s chapter, “Uninformed Policies maximize utility by moving to the location where and Reactionary Politics: A Cautionary Tale from the difference between earnings at origin and the United States,” published in Christian destination is greatest, net of the costs of Dustmann, (Editor) Migration: Economic Change, migration.

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In “A Missing Element in Migration Theories,” The study of migration and development has published in Migration Letters, Douglas Massey focused traditionally on the forces driving persons states that from the mid-1950s through the mid- from their home regions, the demographic and 1980s, migration between Mexico and the United social consequences of their departure, and the States constituted a stable system whose contours subsequent effects of their remittances on local were shaped by social and economic conditions and national economies. The unit of analysis has well-theorized by prevailing models of migration. It normally been the individual migrant – identified evolved as a mostly circular movement of male by classical economics as the central decision workers going to a handful of U.S. states in maker in the process or the family, privileged by response to changing conditions of labour supply sociology and the “new economics” of migration – and demand north and south of the border, as the actual determinant of migration decisions. relative wages prevailing in each nation, market When aggregated, the decisions of individual failures and structural economic changes in actors and family units are said to have major Mexico, and the expansion of migrant networks effects on the social and economic prospects of following processes specified by neoclassical sending regions and nations. Similarly, the economics, segmented labour market theory, the extensive debate over the incorporation of new economics of labour migration, social capital immigrants into the receiving societies has theory, world systems theory, and theoretical featured a range of arguments – from those that models of state behaviour. After 1986, however, disparage the possibilities of successful integration the migration system was radically transformed, among all or certain groups of foreigners – to with the net rate of migration increasing sharply alternatives that see such integration as almost as movement shifted from a circular flow of male inevitable. workers going to a limited set of destinations to a nationwide population of settled families. This Left out of the picture have been the transformation stemmed from a dynamic process organizational efforts of the migrants themselves that occurred in the public arena to bring about and their possible bearing on sending areas, as an unprecedented militarization of the Mexico-U.S. well as on the incorporation in host societies. The border, and not because of shifts in social, individualistic focus has persisted both in critical economic, or political factors specified in accounts of the role of migration that regarded the prevailing theories. In this paper Massey draws on departure of migrants as another symptom of earlier work to describe that dynamic process and underdevelopment and in optimistic ones that demonstrate its consequences, underscoring the focused on the role of migrants remittances as an need for greater theoretical attention to the self- almost miraculous solution to local poverty and interested actions of politicians, pundits, and national underdevelopment. The possibility that bureaucrats who benefit from the social purposefully – created organizations by expatriates construction and political manufacture of could play a significant role was almost entirely immigration crises when none really exist. neglected in the development literature. Similarly, conflicting accounts of sociopolitical incorporation  into host societies focused overwhelmingly on the characteristics of individual migrants, neglecting In their book, The State and The Grassroots: their organizational life. Only recently have Immigrant Transnational Organizations in Four empirical studies in several European countries Continents, Alejandro Portes and Patricia focused on the role of migrant associations in Fernández-Kelly present empirical results, review social and political incorporation. the theoretical controversies in the field of immigration and development, the role of the Alert sending country governments have begged to concept of “transnationalism” in opening a path differ, engaging with migrant organizations in a for the resolution of such controversies, and its multiplicity of development projects and even parallel relationship to the process of creating such organizations where none existed incorporation into social and political life in previously. Initially, these contacts were prompted receiving countries. by the discovery of the volume and aggregate

Office of Population Research 59 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 aggregate significance of individual remittances and high-skills professionals around the world. and the interest of sending country officials in Other elements that seem to play an important preserving these flows. Gradually, however, it role are linked with authoritarian regimes, dawned on them that the scope and importance – violence factors, criminal and political, as well as political and economic – of organized expatriate with violence resulting from discrimination to initiatives could go much farther than individual minorities and life quality deterioration. Using money transfers. data from American Community Survey 2013 and MMP – Latin American Migration Project (LAMP), The history of the growth of immigrant she compares Central and South American Latino organizations and their interactions with home groups, with native- and foreign-born populations, communities, local authorities, and national showing high levels of education and governments is complex and varies greatly across corresponding labor incorporation for South particular communities and countries. So are the Americans. repercussions that these interactions can have on the prospects for sociopolitical incorporation and At the Eastern Sociological Association (ESS) the development of sending nations. Carework Miniconference, Eastern Sociological Society Annual Meetings in New York, Magaly  Sanchez-R and co-author, Suzanne Grossman, presented, “A Link between Immigrants and the Magaly Sanchez-R’s project, “International Health Care System in the USA.” In this paper the Migration of High Skills Educated and Talent to authors shows the incipient trend that related United States,” is advancing the coding after immigrant’s not-English speaking community and collecting qualitative data from in-depth interviews the medical health care institutions. The role of with 150 immigrants from different places Medical interpreters appears to be one of new throughout the world, as well with other key professional activity that directly helps on medical actors in private corporations, policy makers and knowledge and communication between providers academia. Using the Nvivo Program, coding and and community. This is an important implication organization of data will allow for the construction in the social spaces of community and health of some statistical indicators with the Institutions and providers and goes beyond the correspondent qualitative data. Principal aspects simple language translation in the sense that of the data contain information on in-security and considerers social cultural characteristics of the quality-of-life conditions, social services access, served community. Using global data on foreign global market competition, integration and born occupation, data form NSC on medical identity, and diversity and knowledge. After interpreters training achievement by languages, publications and capitalization, the data will be data form the NCBMI by state, and data from accessible through the public archives data of the three providers interviewed, the authors showed OPR. the existing link between skilled medical interpreters and low skilled immigrants patients. At the American Economic Association 2015 Allied Social Science Associations (ASSA) Conference in At Latin American Studies Association (LASA) Boston, MA, Magaly Sanchez-R presented her 2015 in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Magaly Sanchez-R paper, “High Skills Immigrants in the United States: presented,“The Complexity of the Violence in Approach in Education Level and Professional Venezuela: Youth Options and Violent Life,” in the Status,” in the “Political Economy of Migration in Panel, “La violencia y las paradojas en la Europe and United States: The Importance of Venezuela Contemporanea.” In her paper, she Skills Session. In this presentation, she sustains refers to different aspects related to the complexity that the high skill and educated migrants have of the violence in Latin America and in particular been characterizing the flow of total international in Venezuela. She argues that in the case of migration in recent years. With the globalization Venezuela, in a context of progressive age, informational and knowledge society appears authoritarianism so called “democracy” it has been to be a key to understanding the mobility of talent a growing radicalization of youths, accentuated

Office of Population Research 60 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 not only by the globalization of a criminal Americans was boosted by the legalization economy, but also by the aggressive political program: from 1996 to 2000, each of the 100 polarization affecting society , and giving space to initiating migrants from Latin America sponsored the proliferation of armed groups known as between 420 and 531 family members, of which “collectivos.” She argues that the lack of data on 18–21 percent were ages 50 and over. violent crimes, growing authoritarian democracies states, presence of political and criminal violence In “Age at Immigration and the Incomes of Older and the international migration and violence as a Immigrants, 1994-2010” published in Journals of cause, appear to be key elements of Gerontology, Series B: Psychological Sciences and understanding, and need to be seriously taken Social Sciences, Kevin O’Neil (University of Cape into account. Town, South Africa) and Marta Tienda state that seniors comprise a growing proportion of new U.S. Finalizing the year, Magaly Sanchez-R presented a immigrants. They investigate whether late-age lecture “Migracion Internacional de profesionales immigrants are disadvantaged in older age relative altamente cualificados, Estudiantes y Deportados. to those arriving earlier in life, based on income, El cado de Venezuela,” at the Universidad reliance on public benefits, and access to public Javeriana in Bogotá, Colombia. Her talk showed medical insurance. They test whether the 1996 evidence of two differentiated tendencies on welfare reform law altered the relationships international migration from Venezuela. In the between age at immigration and these outcomes. first level she refers to the massive migration of The method--Immigrants aged 65 and older in the High-Skills Educated (HSE) professionals who 1994–2010 Current Population Surveys were have been leaving the country since 2000.This classified by age at immigration. Median and tendency transformed over time, from the wave of logistic regressions are used to estimate the HSE professionals with high human capital and association between age at immigration and already working in Venezuela, to the recent wave several outcomes and to test whether these of students with college and university degrees. At associations differ for arrivals before and after the second level, she referred to the authoritarian welfare reform. The results show that late-age military policy deportation affecting Colombians- immigration is strongly associated with lower Venezuelans people actively living in the borders of personal income, lower rates of Medicare and San Antonio- y Cucuta. These populations have Social Security receipt, and higher participation in been deported to Colombia without any Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and Medicaid. satisfactory explanation, forced by military Arrival after 1996 is associated with lower rates of repression creating a new problem at the “border”. SSI, Medicaid, and Medicare receipt. The association between late-age immigration and  income is stronger for post-1996 arrivals relative to earlier arrivals, whereas that between late-age In “Multiplying Diversity: Family Unification and immigration and Medicaid is weaker, suggesting the Regional Origins of Late-Age U.S. Immigrants,” that the penalty conferred by late-age immigration published in International Migration Review, Marta grew after reform. Tienda uses administrative data about new legal permanent residents to show how family Ph.D. candidate Mariana Campos Horta and unification chain migration changed both the age Marta Tienda’s chapter, “Of Work and the Welfare and regional origin of U.S. immigrants. Between State: Labor Market Activity and Income Security 1981 and 1995, every 100 initiating immigrants of Mexican Origin Seniors,” was published in from Asia sponsored between 220 and 255 Challenges of Latino Aging in the Americas, William relatives, but from 1996 through 2000, each 100 Vega, Kyriakos Markides, Jacqueline Angel, and initiating immigrants from Asia sponsored nearly Fernando Torres-Gill (Editors). The book examines 400 relatives, with one-in-four ages 50 and above. one of the most important demographic changes The family migration multiplier for Latin facing the United States: an overall aging

Office of Population Research 61 OPR Research Annual Report 2015 population and the increasing influence of Latinos. It also looks at the changing demographics in Mexico and its impact on the health and financial well-being of aging Mexicans and Mexican Americans. The book provides a conceptual and accessible framework that will educate and inform readers about the interconnectedness of the demographic trends facing these two countries. It also explores the ultimate personal, social, and political impact they will have on all Americans, in the U.S. as well as Mexico.

Office of Population Research 62 2015 Publications

2015 Working Papers CMD WP15-01g Ilka Vari-Lavoisier (Ecole Normale Center for Health and Wellbeing Supérieure/Research Institution in Paris, France) “The Circulation of Monies and Ideas between June 2015 Paris, Dakar and New York: The Impact of Anne Case and Angus Deaton Remittances on Corruption.” “Suicide, Age, and Wellbeing: An Empirical Investigation.” CMD WP15-01h Erik Vickstrom Center for Migration and Development “Legal Status, Territorial Confinement, and Transnational Activities of Senegalese Migrants CMD WP15-01a in France, Italy, and Spain.” Viviana Zelizer “Remittance Circuits.” Center for Research on Child Wellbeing

CMD WP15-01b CRCW WP15-08-FF Thomas Lacroix (Oxford University) Wade Jacobsen “The communicative Dimension of Migrant "Punished for their Fathers: School Discipline Remittances and its Political Implications.” Among Children of the Prison Boom.”

CMD WP15-01c CRCW WP15-02-FF Thibaut Jaulin (Sciences Po) Amanda Geller (New York University), Kate Jaeger, “The Geography of External Voting: The 2011 Garrett Pace "Using the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Tunisian Election Abroad.” Study in Life Course Health Development Research." CMD WP15-01d Jean-Michel Lafleur and Olivier Lizin (Université CRCW WP15-04-FF de Liége) (Belgium) Angela Bruns (University of Washington) “Transnational Health Insurance Schemes: A "Stability and Change: Income Packaging New Avenue for Congolese Immigrants in among Partners of Incarcerated Men." Belgium to Care for Their Relatives’ Health from Abroad?” Publications and Papers CMD WP15-01e Idrissa Diabata (National Institute of Statistics, Adsera, A., and Pytlikova, M. "The Role of Mali) and Sandrine Mesple-Somps (Paris Language in Shaping International Dauphine University) Migration." The Economic Journal, “Female Genital Mutilation and Migration in 125(586):F49-F81. 2015. Mali: Do Migrants Transfer Social Norms?” Adsera, A., and Ferrer, A. "Occupational Skills and Labour Market Progression of Married CMD WP15-01f Immigrant Women in Canada." Labour Supriya Singh (RMIT University, Australia) Economics, 39:88-98. In press. “Beyond the Dichotomy: Money and the Aiken, A.R. "Happiness about Unintended Transnational Family in India and Australia.” Pregnancy and its Relationship to Contraceptive Desires among a Predominantly Latina Cohort." Perspective in Sexual and Reproductive Health, 47(2):99-106. 2015.

Office of Population Research 63 2015 Publications Annual Report 2015

Aiken, A.R., Aiken, C.E., Alberry, M.S., Arcidiacono, P., Espenshade, T.J., Hawkins, S., Brockelsby, J.C., and Scott, J.G. and Sander, R. "A Conversation on the "Management of Fetal Malposition in the Nature, Effects, and Future of Affirmative Second Stage of Labor: a Propensity Score Action in Higher Education Admissions." Analysis." American Journal of Obstetrics Pennsylvania Journal of Constitutional Law, and Gynecology, 212(3):355. 2015. 19(3):683-727. 2015. Aiken, A.R., Aiken, C.E., Trussell, J., and Guthrie, Arenas, E., Goldman, N., Pebley, A.R., and Teruel, K.A. "Immediate Postpartum Provision of G. "Return Migration to Mexico: Does Highly Effective Reversible Contraception." Health Matter?" Demography, 52:1853- BJOG, 122(8):1050-1051. 2015. 1868. 2015. Aiken, A.R., Dillaway, C., and Mevs-Korff, N. "A Baird, A.S., Trussell, J., and Webb, A. "Use of Blessing I Can't Afford: Factors Underlying Ulipristal Accetate and Levonorgestrel for the Paradox of Happiness about Emergency Contraception: A Follow-Up Unintended Pregnancy." Social Science & Study." Journal of Family Planning and Medicine, 132:149-155. 2015. Reproductive Health Care, 41(2):116-121. Aiken, C.E.M., Aiken, A.R., Cole, J.C., Brockelsby, 2015. J.C., and Bamber, J.H. "Maternal and Fetal Berger, L., and McLanahan, S.S. "Income, Outcomes Following Unplanned Conversion Relationship Quality, and Parenting: to General Anesthetic at Elective Cesarean Associations with Child Developments in Section." Journal of Perinatology, 35(9):695- Two-Parent Families." Journal of Marriage 699. 2015. and Family, 77(14):996-1015. 2015. Aiken, C.E.M., Aiken, A.R., Park, H., Brockelsby, Berger, L., and McLanahan, S.S. "Child Wellbeing J.C., and Prentice, A. "Factors Associated in Two-Parent Families: How do with Adverse Clinical Outcomes among Characteristics and Relationships Matter?" Obstetrics Trainees." Medical Education, Journal of Marriage and Family. In press. 49(7):674-683. 2015. Bexhell, H., Guthrie, K., Cleland, K., and Trussell, Aiken, C.E., Aiken, A.R., and Prentice, A. J. "Unplanned Pregnancy and "Influence of the Duration of the Second Contraceptive Use in Hull and East Stage of Labor on the Likelihood of Yorkshire." Contraception, 93(3):233-235. Obstetric Anal Sphincter Injury." Birth, In press. 42(1):86-93. 2015. Biehl, J. "Claiming the Right to Pharmaceuticals Aiken, C.E., Aiken, A.R., Scott, J.G., Brockelsby, in Brazilian Courts." In The Clinic and the J., and Trussell, J. "Weekend Working: A Court: Law, Medicine and Anthropology, Retrospective Cohort Study of Maternal and edited by I. Harper, T. Kelly, and A. Neonatal Outcomes in a Large NHS Delivery Khanna. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Unit." European Journal of Obstretrics & University Press. 2015. Gynaecology, 199:5-10. In press. Biehl, J. "The Juridical Hospital: Claiming the Aiken, A.R., and Trussell, J. "Do As We Say, Not Right to Pharmaceuticals in Brazilian As We Do: Experiences of Unprotected Courts." In The Clinic and the Court: Law, Intercourse Reported by Members of the Medicine and Anthropology, edited by I. Society of Family Planning." Contraception, Harper, T. Kelly, and A. Khanna. 92(1):71-76. 2015. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, Alves, F., Elacqua, G., Martínez, M., Santos, H., UK. 2015. and Urbina, D. "Winners and Losers of Biehl, J., Slovic, A.D., de Oliveira, M.A., and School Choice: Evidence from Rio de Ribeiro, H. "How Can Urban Policies Janeiro, Brazil and Santiago, Chile." Improve Air Quality and Help Mitigate International Journal of Educational Global Climate Change: A Systematic Development, 41:25-34. 2015. Mapping Review." Journal of Urban Health: Ames, D.L., and Fiske, S.T. "Perceived Intent Bulletin of the New York Academy of Motivates People to Magnify Observed Medicine, 92(6). 2015. Harms." Proceedings of the National Biehl, J., and Zucker, N. "The Masked Academy of Sciences, 24(12):3599-3605. Anthropologist." Journal of Ethnographic 2015. Theory, 5(2):367-374. 2015.

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Bietsch, K. "Men's Attitudes towards Butler, S., Smith, N.K., Collazo, E., Caltabiano, L., Contraception in sub-Saharan Africa." and Herbenick, D. "Pubic Hair Preferences, African Journal of Reproductive Health, Reasons for Removal, and Associated 19(3):41-54. 2015. Genital Symptoms: Comparisons between Birger, R., Kouyos, R.D., Cohen, T., Griffiths, E., Men and Women." Journal of Sexual Huijben, S., Mina, M., Volkova, V., Grenfell, Medicine, 12:48-58. 2015. B.T., and Metcalf, C.J.E. "The Impact of Bzostek, S., Sastry, N., Goldman, N., Pebley, A.R., Coinfection on Anti-Microbial and Duffy, D. "Using Vignettes to Rethink Chemotherapy and Drug Resistance." Latino-White Disparities in Self-Rated Trends in Microbiology, 23:537-544. 2015. Health." Social Science & Medicine, 149:46- Birger, R.B., R.D., K., Cohen, T., Griffiths, E.C., 65. In press. Huijben, S., Mina, M., Volkova, V., Grenfell, Case, A., and Deaton, A. "Rising Morbidity and B.T., and Metcalf, C.J. "The Potential Mortality in Midlife among White Non- Impact of Coinfection on Antimicrobial Hispanic Americans in the 21st Century." Chemotherapy and Drug Resistance." Proceedings of the National Academy of Trends in Microbiology, 23(9):537-544. Sciences, 112(49):106. 2015. 2015. Case, A., Ardington, C., Barnighausen, T., and Black, A.Y., Guilbert, E., Hassan, F., Menendez, A. "Social Protection and Labor Chatziheofilou, I., Lowin, J., Jeddi, M., Market Outcomes in South Africa." Filonenko, A., and Trussell, J. "The Cost of Industrial and Labor Relations Review, Unintended Pregnancies in Canada: 69(2):455-470. In press. Estimating Direct Cost, Role of Imperfect Case, A., and Deaton, A. "Reply to Schmid, Adherence, and the Potential Impact of Snyder, and Gelman and Auerbach: Increased Use of Long-Acting Reversible Correlates of the Increase in White Non- Contraceptives." Journal of Obstetrics and Hispanic Midlife Mortality in the 21st Gynaecology Canada, 37(12):1086-1097. Century." Proceeding of the National 2015. Academy of Sciences, 113:E817-819. In Blue, L., Goldman, N., and Rosero-Bixby, L. press. "Disease and Weight Loss: A Prospective Caudron, Q., Mahmud, A., Metcalf, C.J., Study of Middle-Aged and Older Adults in Gottfreosson, M., Viboud, C., Cliff, A.D., Costa Rica and in England." Salud Pública and Grenfell, B.T. "Predictability in a de México, 57(4):312-319. 2015. Highly Stochastic System: Final Size of Bohra-Mishra, P., and Massey, D.S. Measles Epidemics in Small Populations." "Intermarriage among New Immigrants in Journal of the Royal Science Interface, the USA." Ethnic and Racial Studies, 12(102):20141125. 2015. 38(5):734-758. 2015. Chen, Y.-Y.S., and Cameron, S. "Education and Borgida, E., and Fiske, S.T. "Translating Research Transition to Work: Evidence from for Legal Cases and the Courts." In Making Cambodia, Napal and Vietnam." Presented Research Matter: A Psychologist's Guide to at the International Labour Organization Engagement beyond the Academy, edited by (ILO) Work4Youth Global Research L.R. Tropp. Washington, DC: APA Books. Symposium. Geneva, Switzerland. In In press. press. Bughardt, L., Metcalf, C.J.E., Wilczek, A., Cheng, C. "Predictors of Anticipated Instrumental Johanna Schmitt, J., and Donahue, K. Support from Adult Children among Older "Modeling the Influence of Genetic and Parents in Urban and Rural China." Environmental Variation on the Expression Presented at the American Sociological of Plant Life Cycles across Landscapes." Association Annual Meeting. Chicago, IL. American Naturalist, 185:212-227. 2015. 2015. Burkley, E., Durante, F., Fiske, S.T., Burkley, M., Cheng, C. "Predictors of Anticipated Instrumental and Andrade, A. "Structure and Content of Support from Adult Children among Older Native American Stereotypic Subgroups: Parents in Urban and Rural China." Not Just (Ig)noble." Cultural Diversity and Presented at the Population Association of Ethnic Minority Psychology. In press.

Office of Population Research 65 2015 Publications Annual Report 2015

America Annual Meeting. San Diego, CA. 2015. Dalziel, B.D., Bjornstad, O.N., van Panhuis, W.G., Choi, K., Hsin, A., and McLanahan, S.S. "Asian Burke, D.S., Metcalf, C.J., and Grenfell, Mothers and Children's Verbal Development B.T. "Persistent Chaos of Measles in Australia and the United States." Social Epidemics in the Prevaccination United Science Research, 52:389-407. 2015. States Caused by a Small Change in Connor, R.A., Glick, P., and Fiske, S.T. Seasonal Transmission Patterns." PLoS "Ambivalent Sexism in the 21st Century." Computational Biology, 12(2):e1004655. In In Cambridge Handbook of the Psychology of press. Prejudice, edited by C. Sibley, and F. Dancygier, R., Lindgren, K.-O., Oskarsson, S., and Barlow. New York, NY: Cambridge Vernby, K. "Why are Immigrants University Press. In press. Underrepresented in Politics? Evidence Cornman, J.C., Glei, D.A., Goldman, N., Ryff, from Sweden." American Political Science C.D., and Weinstein, M. "Socioeconomic Review, 109(4):703-724. 2015. Status and Biological Markers of Health of Dancygier, R., and Walter, S. "Globalization, Health: An Examination of Adults in the Labor Market Risks, and Class Cleavages." United States and Taiwan." Journal of Aging In Future of Democratic Capitalism, edited and Health, 27(1):75-102. 2015. by P. Beramendi, S. Haussermann, H. Cornman, J.C., Glei, D., Goldman, N., and Kriesi, and H. Kitschelt. New York, NY: Weinstein, M. "Physiological Dysregulation, Cambridge University Press. 2015. Frailty and Risk of Mortality among Older Deaton, A. "On Tyrannical Experts and Expert Adults." Research on Aging. In press. Tyrants." The Review of Austrian Economics, Cunniffe, N., Koskella, B., Gottwald, T., Parnell, 28(4):407-412. 2015. S., Van den Bosch, F., Metcalf, C.J.E., and Deaton, A., and Tortora, R. "People in Sub- Gilligan, C.A. "Thirteen Challenges in Plant Saharan Africa Rate their Health and Infectious Diseases." Epidemics, 10:6-10. Health Care among the Lowest in the 2015. World." Health Affairs, 34(3):519-527. Currie, J., Davis, L., Greenstone, M., and Walker, 2015. R. "Environmental Health Risks and Dieguez, G., Pyenson, B.S., Law, A.W., Lynen, R., Housing Values: Evidence from 1600 Toxic and Trussell, J. "The Cost of Unintended Plant Openings and Closings." American Pregnancies for Employer-Sponsored Health Economic Review, 105(2):678-709. 2015. Insurance Plans." American Journal of Currie, J., Duque, V., and Garfinkel, I. "The Great Public Health, 8(2):83-92. 2015. Recession and Mother's Health." Economic Ditlemann, R., and Paluck, E.L. "Field Journal, 125(588):F311-F346. 2015. Experiments." In International Encyclopedia Currie, J., and Rajani, I. "Within-Mother of Social and Behavioral Science. In press. Estimates of the Effects of WIC on Birth Dixon, A.R. "Colorism and Classism Confounded: Outcomes in New York City." Economic Perceptions of Discriminations in Latin Inquiry, 53(4):1691-1701. 2015. America." Presented at the American Currie, J., and Rossin-Slater, M. "Early-Life Sociological Association Annual Meeting. Origins of Lifecycle Wellbeing: Research and Chicago, IL. 2015. Policy Implications." Journal of Policy Dixon, A.R. "Colorism and Classism Confounded: Analysis and Management, 34(1):208-242. Perceptions of Discriminations in Latin 2015. America." Presented at the Population Currie, J., and Tekin, E. "Is there a Link between Association of America Annual Meeting. Foreclosure and Health." American Economic Washington, DC. 2015. Journals: Economic Policy, 7(1):63094. 2015. Dixon, A.R. "Colorism and Classism Confounded: Currie, J., and Schwandt, H. "The 9/11 Dust Perceptions of Discriminations in Latin Cloud and Pregnancy Outcomes: A America." Presented at the Society for the Reconsideration." Journal of Human Study of Social Problems Annual Meetings. Resources. In press. Chicago, IL. 2015.

Office of Population Research 66 2015 Publications Annual Report 2015

Dixon, A.R. "Colorism and Classism Confounded: Fernández-Kelly, P. "Assimilation through Perceptions of Discriminations in Latin Transnationalism: A Theoretical Synthesis." America." Presented at the Association of In The State and the Grassroots: Immigrant Black Sociologists Annual Conference. Transnational Organizations in Four Chicago, IL. 2015. Continents, edited by A. Portes, and P. Donnely, L. "Father Involvement and Childhood Fernández-Kelly. New York, NY: Berghahn Injuries." Journal of Marriage and Family, Books. 2015. 77(3):628-646. 2015. Fernández-Kelly, P. The Hero's Fight: African Easley, J. "The Location of Employers and Americans in the Shadow of the State. Businesses: Does Racial Composition Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Matter?" Presented at the Association of 2015. Black Sociologists Annual Conference. Fiske, S.T. "Categories, Intent, and Harm." In Chicago, IL. 2015. Social Psychology of Good and Evil, edited Easley, J. "Spatial Mismatch: Beyond Black and by A. Miller. Guilford Press: New York, NY. White, Within Panethnicity.” Presented at In press. the Society for the Study of Social Problems Fiske, S.T. "Dehumanization." In Brain Mapping: Annual Meetings. Chicago, IL. 2015. An Encyclopedic Reference, edited by A. Easley, J. "Spatial Mismatch: Beyond Black and Toga. Oxford, UK: Elsevier. 2015. White." Presented at the Population Fiske, S.T. "Grolar Bears, Social Class, and Policy Association of America Annual Meeting. Relevance: Extraordinary Agendas for the San Diego, CA. 2015. Emerging 21st Century." European Journal Easley, J. "Spatial Mismatch: Beyond Black and of Social Psychology, 45(5):551-559. 2015. White." Presented at the 19th Annual Aage Fiske, S.T. "Intergroup Biases: A Focus on Sorensen Memorial Conference. Princeton Stereotype Content." Current Opinion in University, Princeton, NJ. 2015. Behavioral Sciences, 3:45-50. 2015. Elacqua, G., Martínez, M., Santos, H., and Urbina, Fiske, S.T. "Rational Actor Models: The D. "Short-Run Effects of Accountability Competence Corollary." In This Idea Must Pressures on Teacher Policies and Practices Die: Scientific Theories that are Blocking in the Chilean Voucher System." School Progress, edited by J. Brockman. Harper Effectiveness and School Improvement, DOI: Press: New York, NY. 2015. 10.1080/09243453.2015.1086383. 2015. Fiske, S.T., Bergsieker, H.B., Constantine, V., Espenshade, T.J., and Tannen, J.B.C. "Population Dupree, C.H., Holoien, D.S., Kervyn, N., Dynamics: Momentum of Population Leslie, L., and Swencionis, J.K. "Talking Up Growth." In International Encyclopedia of and Talking Down: The Power of Positive Behavioral and Social Sciences, 2nd Edition, Speaking: Lewin Award Address." Journal of edited by J.D. Wright. Elsevier Limited: Social Issues, 71(4):834-846. 2015. Oxford, England. 2015. Fiske, S.T., and Dupree, C. "Cognitive Processes Faust, C., Zelner, J., Brasseur, P., Vaillant, M., Involved in Stereotyping." In Emerging Badiane, M., Cisse, M., Grenfell, B.T., and Trends in the Social and Behavioral Olliaro, P. "Assessing Drivers of Full Sciences, edited by R.A. Scott, and S.M. Adoption of Test and Treat Policy for Kosslyn. Wiley: New York, NY. 2015. Malaria in Senegal." American Journal of Fiske, S.T. "How to Publish Rigorous Experiments Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 93(1):159- in the 21st Century." Journal of 167. 2015. Experimental Social Psychology. In press. Feehan, D.M., Umubyeyi, A., Mahy, M., and Fiske, S.T. "How Warmth and Competence Inform Salganik, M.J. "Quantity vs Quality: A your Social Life." In Scientists Making a Survey Experiment to Improve the Network Difference: 100 Eminent Behavioral and Scale-Up Method." American Journal of Brain Scientists Talk about their Most Epidemiology, 183(8): 747-757. In press. Important Contributions, edited by R.J. Sternberg, S.T. Fiske, and D.J. Foss. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. In press.

Office of Population Research 67 2015 Publications Annual Report 2015

Fiske, S.T. "Morality of Stereotypes." In The Atlas Franz, M., McLean, E., Tung, J., Altmann, J., and of Moral Psychology, edited by K.J. Gray, Alberts, S.C. "Self-Organizing Dominance and J. Graham. Guilford Press: New York, Hierarchies in a Wild Primate Population." NY. In press. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London: Fiske, S.T., Ames, D.L., Swencionis, J.K., and Series B, 282(1814). 2015. Dupree, D.H. "Thinking Up and Talking Frye, M., and Trinitapoli, J. "Ideals as Anchors for Up: Restoring Control through Relationship Experiences." American Mindreading." In Coping with Lack of Sociological Review, 80(3):496-525. 2015. Control in a Social World, edited by M. Galbany, J., Tung, J., Altmann, J., and Alberts, Bukowski, I. Fritsche, A. Guinote, and M. J.C. "Canine Size in Wild Male Baboons Kofta. New York, NY: Routledge & from Amboseli: Maturation, Aging and Psychology Press. In press. Social Dominance Rank." PLoS One, Fiske, S.T., and Dupree, C.H. "Universal 10(5):e0126415. 2015. Dimensions of Social Cognition." In Social Gaydosh, L. "Childhood Risk of Parental Absence Signal Processing, edited by A. Vinciarelli, in Tanzania." Demography, 52(4):1121- M. Pantic, J. Burgoon, and N. Thalmann. 1146. 2015. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. Geoghegan, J.L., Tan, L.V., Kuhnert, D., Halpin, In press. R.A., Lin, X., Simenauer, A., Grenfell, B.T., Fiske, S.T., Dupree, C.H., Nicolas, G., and and et al. "Phylodynamics of Enterovirus Swencionis, J.K. "Status, Power, and A71-Associated Hand, Foot and Mouth Intergroup Relations: The Personal is the Disease in Viet Nam." Journal of Virology, Societal." Current Opinion in Psychology. In 89(17):8871-8879. 2015. press. Gile, K.G., Johnston, L.G., and Salganik, M.J. Fiske, S.T., and Durante, F. "Stereotype Content "Diagnostics for Respondent-Driven across Cultures: Variations on a Few Sampling." Journal of the Royal Statistical Themes." In Handbook of Advances in Society, Series A (Statistics in Society), Culture and Psychology, edited by M.J. 178(1):241-269. 2015. Gelfand, C.-Y. Chiu, and Y.-Y. Hong. Gillion, L. "Birth Weight as a Destiny? The Oxford University Press: New York, NY. In Changing Influence of Childhood Health and press. Social Environment on Cognitive Ability." Fiske, S.T., and Taylor, S.E. "Collaboration: Presented at the Population Association of Interdependence in Action." In America Annual Meeting. San Diego, CA. Collaboration in Psychological Science: 2015. Behind the Scenes, edited by R.Zweigenhaft, Gillion, L. "Consequences of Special Education: and E. Borgida. New York, NY: Worth How Special Education Decreases Self- Publishers. In press. Esteem and Contributes to the Achievement Fitzpatrick, C.L., Altmann, J., and Alberts, S.C. Gap." Presented at the Association of Black "Exaggerated Sexual Swellings and Male Sociologist Annual Meeting. Chicago, IL. Mate Choice in Primates: Testing the 2015. Reliable Indicator Hypothesis in the Glei, D.A., Goldman, N., Weinstein, M., and Amboseli Baboons." Animal Behavior, Risques, R.A. "Shorter Ends, Faster End: 104:175-185. 2015. Leukocyte Telomere Length and Mortality Foster, A.M., Arnott, G., Parniak, S., LaRoche, among Older Taiwanese." The Journals of K.J., and Trussell, J. "No Exceptions: Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences Documenting the Abortion Experiences of and Medical Sciences, 70:1490-1498. 2015. US Peace Corps Volunteers." American Glei, D., Goldman, N., and Weinstein, M. "Health Journal of Public Health, 105(1):41-48. as Reflected by Biomarkers in Older 2015. Populations." In Demographic Studies on Franz, M., Altmann, J., and Alberts, J.C. Survival and Health. New York, NY: Springer. "Knockouts of High-Ranking Males have In press. Limited Impact on Baboon Social Networks." Current Zoology, 61:107-113. 2015. Office of Population Research 68 2015 Publications Annual Report 2015

Golann, J. "The Enacted Curriculum: Teaching Grigoryeva, A. "Household Financial Practices and Self-Discipline to Promote Social Mobility." Wealth Inequality in the United States, Presented at the American Sociological 1983-2010." Presented at the American Association Annual Meeting. Chicago, IL. Sociological Association. Chicago, IL. 2015. 2015. Golann, J. "The Paradox of Success at a No- Grigoryeva, A. "Household Financial Practices and Excuses Charter School." Sociology of Wealth Inequality in the United States, Education, 88(2):103. 2015. 1983-2010." Presented at the Boulder Goldman, N. "Mortality Differentials: Selection and Summer Conference on Consumer Causation." In The International Financial Decision Making. Boulder, CO. Encyclopedia of Social and Behavioral 2015. Sciences, 2nd Edition, edited by J.D. Wright. Grigoryeva, A. "Household Financial Practices and Oxford, UK: Elsevier Ltd. 2015. Wealth Inequality in the United States, Goldman, N., and Glei, D.A. "Quantifying the 1983-2010." Presented at the Society for Value of Biomarkers for Predicting the Study of Social Problems Annual Mortality." Annals of Epidemiology, 25:901- Meeting. Chicago, IL. 2015. 906. 2015. Haberstick, B., Boardman, J., Wagner, B., Goldman, N. "Will the Latino Mortality Advantage Smolen, A., Hewitt, J.K., Killeya-Jones, L., Endure?" Research on Aging, 38(3):263-282. and et al. "Depression, Stressful Life In press. Events and the Impact of Variation in the Gottlieb, A. "Explaining Cross-National Variation Serotonin Transporter: A Replication in Incarceration Rates: The Role of Economic Study." PLoS One. In press. Structural Change, Left Institutions, and the Hale, L., Emanuele, E., and James, S. "Recent Welfare State." Presented at the American Updates in the Social and Environmental Sociological Association Annual Meeting. Determinants of Sleep Health." Current Chicago, IL. 2015. Sleep Medicine Reports, 1(4):212-217. Gottlieb, A. "Explaining Cross-National Variation 2015. in Homicide Rates: The Role of the Welfare Hamilton, T.G. "The Healthy Immigrant (Migrant) State and Age Structure." Presented at the Effect: In Search of a Better Native-Born Population Association of America Annual Comparison Group." Social Science Meeting. Washington, DC. 2015. Research, 54:353-365. 2015. Gottlieb, A. "Explaining Cross-National Variation Hamilton, T.G., Palermo, T., and Green, T.L. in Poverty Rates: Do Incarceration Rates "Health Assimilation among Hispanic Play a Role?" Presented at the Population Immigrants in the United States: The Association of America Annual Meeting. Impact of Ignoring Arrival-Cohort Effects." Washington, DC. 2015. Journal of Health and Social Behavior, Gottlieb, A. "Household Incarceration in Early 56(4):460-477. 2015. Adolescence and Risk of Premarital First Heesterbeck, J.A.P., Anderson, R., Dye, C., Eames, Birth." Children and Youth Services Review, K., Metcalf, C.J.E., and et al. "Modelling 61:126-134. In press. Infectious Disease Dynamics in the Greenaway, K., Frye, M., and Cruwys, T. "When Complex Landscape of Global Health." Aspirations Exceed Expectations: Quixotic Science, 347(6227):aaa4339. 2015. Hope Increases Depression among Henry, N., Schlueter, M., Lowin, J., Lekander, I., Students." PloS One, 10(9):1-17. 2015. Filonenko, A., Trussell, J., and Skjeldestad, Griffiths, E., Fairlie-Clarke, E., Allen, J.E., Metcalf, F.E. "Cost of Unintended Pregnancy in C.J.E., and Graham, A.L. "Bottom-up Control Norway: A Role for Long-Acting Reversible of Malaria Population Dynamics in Mice Co- Contraception." Journal of Family Planning Infected with Lung-Migratory Nematodes." and Reproductive Health Care, 41(2):109- Ecology Letters, 18:1387-1396. 2015. 115. 2015.

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Horta, M.C., and Tienda, M. "Of Work and the Klepac, P., Megiddo, I., Grenfell, B.T., and Welfare State: Labor Market Activity and Laxminarayan, R. "Self-Enforcing Regional Income Security of Mexican Origin Seniors." Vaccination Agreements." Journal of the In Challenges of Latino Aging in the Royal Science Interface, Americas, edited by W. Vega, K. Markides, 13(114):pii20150907. In press. J. Angel, and F. Torres-Gill. New York, NY: Lea, A.J., Altmann, J., Alberts, S.C., and Tung, J. Springer. 2015. "Developmental Constraints in a Wild Hubacher, D., and Trussell, J. "A Definition of Primate." The American Naturalist, Modern Contraceptive Methods." 185(6):811-822. 2015. Contraception, 92(5):420-421. 2015. Lea, A.J., Altmann, J., Alberts, J.C., and Tung, J. Huynh, J., and Yiu, J. "Breaking Blocked "Resource Base Influences Genome-Wide Transnationalism: Intergenerational Change DNA Methylation Levels in Wild Baboons in Homeland Ties." In The State and the (Papio Cynocephalus)." Molecular Ecology. Grassroots: Immigrant Transnational In press. Organizations in Four Continents, edited by Lee, C., Glei, D., Goldman, N., and Weinstein, M. A. Portes, and P. Fernández-Kelly. New "Children's Education and Parents' York, NY: Berghahn Books. 2015. Trajectories of Psychological Wellbeing." Hwang, J. "Gentrification in Changing Cities: Journal of Health and Social Behavior. In Immigration, New Diversity, and Racial press. Inequality in Neighborhood Renewal." The Lee, D., and McLanahan, S.S. "Family Structure Annals of the American Academy of Political Transitions and Child Development: and Social Science, 660(1):319-340. 2015. Instability, Selection, and Population Hwang, J. "Pioneers of Gentrification Heterogeneity." American Sociological Transformation in Global Neighborhoods in Review, 80(4):738-763. 2015. Urban America in the Late Twentieth Littman, R., and Paluck, E.L. "The Cycle of Century." Demography, 53(1):189-213. In Violence: Understanding Individual press. Participation in Collective Violence." Hwang, J. "The Social Construction of a Advances in Political Psychology, 36(S1):79- Gentrifying Neighborhood: Reifying and 99. 2015. Redefining Identity and Boundaries in Lloyd-Smith, J.O., Mollison, D., Metcalf, C.J.E., Inequality." Urban Affairs Review, 52(1):98- and Heesterbeck, J.A.P. "Challenges in 128. In press. Modeling Infectious Disease Dynamics: Hwang, J., Hankinson, M., and Brown, K.S. Preface." Epidemics, 10:1-5. 2015. "Racial and Spatial Targeting: Segregation Lobo Abascal, P., Luzar-Stiffler, V., Giljanovic, S., and Subprime Lending within and across Howard, B., Weiss, H., and Trussell, J. Metropolitan Areas." Social Forces, "Differences in Reporting Pearl Indices in 93(3):1081-1108. 2015. the United States and Europe: Focus on a Ishizuka, P. "Preferences or Constraints? 91-Day Extended-Regimen Combined Oral Education, Gender, and Parenting Contraceptive with Low-Dose Ethinyl Attitudes." Presented at the Population Estradiol Supplementation." European Association of America Annual Meeting. Journal of Contraception and Reproductive Washington, DC. 2015. Health Care, 37(12):88-91. In press. Kervyn, N., Fiske, S.T., and Yzerbyt, Y. Mahmud, A. "HIV and Fertility in sub-Saharan "Foretelling the Primary Dimension of Social Africa." Presented at the Population Cognition: Symbolic and Realistic Threats Association of America Annual Meeting. Together Predict Warmth in the Stereotype San Diego, CA. 2015. Content Model." Social Psychology, 46:36- Mahmud, A. "Behavioral or Biological: Taking a 45. 2015. Closer Look at the Relationship between Klepac, P., Funk, S., Hollingsworth, T.D., Metcalf, HIV and Fertility." Applied Demography C.J.E., and Hampson, K. "Six Challenges and Public Health in the 21st Century. In in the Eradication of Infectious Diseases." press. Epidemics, 10:97-101. 2015.

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Marin, M.C., Welongo, M., and Beatty, M. Massey, D.S., Durand, J., and Pren, K.A. "Border "Adolescent Reproductive Health Needs in Enforcement and Return Migration by Kakuma Refugee Camp, Kenya." Presented Documented and Undocumented at the American Public Health Association Mexicans." Journal of Ethnic and Migration Annual Meeting. Chicago, IL. 2015. Studies, 41(7):1015-1040. 2015. Markham, A.C., Alberts, J.C., and Altmann, J. Massey, D.S., and Pren, K.A. "Militarization of the "Haven for the Night: Sleeping Site Selection Mexico-U.S. Border and its Effect on the on a Wild Primate." Behavioral Ecology, Circularity of Migrants." In Global 27(1):29-35. 2015. Migration: Myths and Realities, edited by Markham, A.C., Gesquiere, L.R., Alberts, S.C., and D.A. Arcarazo, and A. Wiesbrock. New Altmann, J. "Optimal Group Size in a York, NY: Praeger. 2015. Highly Social Mammal." Proceedings of the Massey, D.S., and Rothwell, J. "Geographic National Academy of Sciences, Effects on Intergenerational Income 112(48):14882-14887. 2015. Mobility." Economic Geography, 91(1):83- Martinson, M.L., Brooks-Gunn, J., and 106. 2015. McLanahan, S.S. "Variation in Child Body Massey, D.S., Rugh, J.S., and Albright, L. "Race, Mass Patterns by Race/Ethnicity and Space, and Cumulative Disadvantage: A Maternal Nativity Status in the United Case Study of the Subprime Lending States and England." Maternal and Child Collapse." Social Problems, 62:186-218. Health Journal, 19(3):372-380. 2015. 2015. Martinson, M.L., and Tienda, M. "Birthing, Massey, D.S., and Tannen, J. "A Research Note Nativity and Maternal Depression: Australia on Trends in Black Hypersegregation." and the United States." International Demography, 52(3):1025-1034. 2015. Migration Review, DOI: Massey, D.S. "Confronting the Legacy of American 10.1111/imre.12173. 2015. Apartheid." In Building Shared Prosperity, Massey, D.S. "A Missing Element in Migration edited by S. Wachter, and L. Ding. Theories." Migration Letters, 12(3):263-274. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania 2015. Press. In press. Massey, D.S. "The Brave New World of Biosocial Massey, D.S. "Globalización, Inmigración y Science." Criminology, 53(1):127-131. Migración Ilegal: La Construcción de un 2015. Problema Social Estadonidense." In Massey, D.S. "The Legacy of the 1968 Fair Problemas Sociales: Una Mirada desde la Housing Act." Sociological Forum, Lociologia, edited by A. Requena, and M.S. 30(S1):91-108. 2015. Martinez. Los Libros de la Caarata: Madrid, Massey, D.S. "Threat Evasion as Motivation for Spain. In press. Migration." World on the Move, 22(1):3-5. Massey, D.S. "How Arizona Became Ground Zero 2015. in the War on Immigrants." In Illegals in Massey, D.S. "Threat Evasion as Motivation for the Backyard: State and Local Regulation of Migration: New Results on the Effect of Immigration Policy. New York, NY: Violence in Latin America." In Global University Press. In press. Change and Resilience: From Impacts to Massey, D.S. "La Migración Mexicana en la Era de Responses, edited by R. Stojanov, A. Alud, los Indocumentados." In La Historia de La P. Cudlin, A. Farda, O. Uran, and M. Trnka. Migración Mexicana a Estados Unidos entre Brno: Global Change Research Centre, el Siglo XIX y el Presente, edited by R. Academy of Sciences of the Czeck Republic. Alarcón, and F. Alanis. Tijuana and San 2015. Luis Potosi: Editoriales del Colegio de la Massey, D.S. "Uninformed Policies and Frontera Norte y El Colegio de San Luis. In Reactionary Politics: A Cautionary Tale from press. the United States." In Migration: Economic Massey, D.S. "The Mexico-U.S. Border in the Change, Social Challenge, edited by C. American Imagination." Proceedings of the Dustmann. Oxford, UK: Oxford University American Philosophical Society. In press. Press. 2015.

Office of Population Research 71 2015 Publications Annual Report 2015

Massey, D.S. "The Origins and Future of Global McLanahan, S.S., and Jacobsen, W. "Diverging Latinos." In Global Latin(o) Americanos: Destinies Revisited." In Families in an Era Transoceanic Diasporas and Regional of Increasing Inequality: Diverging Destinies, Migration, edited by M. Overmyer- edited by P.R. Amato, A. Booth, S.M. Valázquez, and E. Sepúlveda. Oxford McHale, and J.V. Hook. New York, NY: University Press: New York, NY. In press. Springer. 2015. Massey, D.S. "Riding the Stagecoach to Hell: A McLanahan, S.S., and Jencks, C. "Was Moynihan Qualitative Analysis of Racial Right." Education Next, 15(2):17-22. 2015. Discrimination in Mortgage Lending." City McLanahan, S.S., and Sawhill, I. "Marriage and and Community. In press. Child Wellbeing Revisited." The Future of Massey, D.S. "Segregation and the Perpetuation of Children, 25(2):3-7. 2015. Disadvantage." In The Oxford Handbook of Metcalf, C.J., Andreasen, V., Bjornstad, O.N., Poverty and Society, edited by L. Burton, Eames, K., Edmunds, W.J., Funk, S., and D. Brady. Oxford: Oxford University Hollingsworth, T.D., Lessler, J., Viboud, C., Press. In press. and Grenfell, B.T. "Seven Challenges in Massey, D.S. "Segregation, Health, and Modelling Vaccine Preventable Diseases." Stratification: A Biosocial Model." In Oxford Epidemics, 10:11-15. 2015. Handbook of Stigma, Discrimination and Metcalf, C.J.E., Birger, R., Funk, S., Kouyos, R.D., Health, edited by B. Major, F.J. Dovidio, Lloyd-Smith, J., and Janzen, V. "Five and G.G. Link. Oxford University Press: Challenges in the Evolution of Infectious New York, NY. In press. Diseases." Epidemics, 10(93-96). 2015. Massey, D.S. "Segregation, Race, and the Social Metcalf, C.J.E., Bughardt, L., and Koons, D.N. Worlds of Rich and Poor." In The Dynamics "Avoiding the Crowds: The Evolution of of Opportunity in America: Evidence and Plastic Response to Seasonal Cues in a Perspectives, edited by H. Braun, and I. Density Dependent World." Journal of Kirsch. Spring: New York, NY. In press. Ecology, 103:819-828. 2015. Massey, D.S., Durand, J., and Pren, K.A. "Why Metcalf, C.J.E., Ellner, S.P., Childs, D.Z., Border Enforcement Backfired." American McMahon, S.M., Merow, C., Jongejans, E., Journal of Sociology, 121(5):1-44. In press. Salguero-Gomez, R., and Rees, M. Massey, D.S., and Tannen, J. "Segregation, Race, "Statistical Modelling of Annual Variation and the Social Worlds of Rich and Poor." In for Inference on Stochastic Population The Dynamics of Opportunity in America: Dynamics Using Integral Projection Evidence and Perspectives, edited by H. Models." Methods of Ecology and Evolution, Braun, and T. Kirsch. New York, NY: 6:1007-1017. 2015. Springer. In press. Metcalf, C.J.E., Ferrari, M., Graham, A.L., and Massey, D.S., and Wagner, B. "The Effect of Grenfell, B.T. "Understanding Herd Neighborhood Disadvantage on White and Immunity." Trends in Immunology, 36:753- Black Telomere Length." Russell Sage 735. 2015. Journal of the Social Sciences. In press. Metcalf, C.J.E., and Jones, J.H. "The Evolutionary McFarland, M.J., and Wagner, B.G. "Does a Dynamics of Timing of Maternal Immunity: College Education Reduce Depressive Evaluating the Role of Age-Specific Symptoms in American Young Adults?" Mortality." Journal of Evolutionary Biology, Social Science & Medicine, 146:75-84. 28:493-502. 2015. 2015. Metcalf, C.J.E., Lessler, J., and Edmunds, W.J. McFarland, M., and Wagner, B. "Higher "Six Challenges in Policy for Modeling." Education and Depressive Symptoms: A Epidemics, 10:93-96. 2015. Longitudinal Twin Discordant Design." Mina, M., Metcalf, C.J.E., de Swart, R., Osterhaus, Social Science & Medicine. In Press. A.D., and Grenfell, B.T. "Long-Term Measles-Induced Immune-Amnesia Explains Major Reductions in All-Cause Childhood Mortality Following Measles Vaccination." Science, 348:694-699. 2015.

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Mina, M.J., Metcalf, C.J., de Swart, R.L., North, M.S., and Fiske, S.T. "Modern Attitudes Osterhaus, A.D., and Grenfell, B.T. toward Older Adults in the Aging World: A "Vaccines, Long-Term Measles-Induced Cross-Cultural Meta-Analysis." Immunomodulation Increases Overall Psychological Bulletin, 14(5):993-1021. Childhood Infectious Disease Mortality." 2015. Science, 348(6235):694-699. 2015. North, M.S., and Fiske, S.T. "Intergenerational Mirakhur, Z. "High School Dropouts and Their Resource Tensions in the Workplace and Classmates." Presented at the Annual Beyond: Individual, Interpersonal, Association for Educational Policy and Institutional, International Research in Finance Meeting. Washington, DC. 2015. Organizational Behavior." In press. Mirakhur, Z. "High School Dropouts and Their North, M.S., and Fiske, S.T. "Resource Scarcity Classmates." Presented at the Population and Prescriptive Attitudes Generate Subtle, Association of America Annual Meeting. Intergenerational Older-Worker Exclusion." San Diego, CA. 2015. Journal of Social Issues. In press. Mitchell, C., McLanahan, S.S., Notterman, D., Nosek, B.A., Alter, G., Banks, G.C., Borsboom, D., Hobcraft, J., Brooks-Gunn, J., and Bowman, S.D., Breckler, S.J., Paluck, E.L., Garfinkel, I. "Family Structure Instability, and et al. "Scientific Standards: Promoting Genetic Sensitivity, and Child Wellbeing." an Open Research Culture." Science, American Journal of Sociology, 120(4):1195- 348:1422-1424. 2015. 1225. 2015. O'Mara, R.J., Hsu, S.I.H., and Wilson, D.R. Mittleman, J. "Identity Intersections in the "Should MD-PhD Programs Encourage Classroom: The Impact of Teacher Graduate Training in Disciplines beyond Race/Ethnicity on Student Classroom Conventional Biomedical or Clinical Experience." Presented at the American Sciences?" Academic Medicine, 90(2):161- Educational Research Association. 164. 2015. Washington, DC. 2015. O'Neil, K., and Tienda, M. "Age of Immigration Mittleman, J. "Identity Intersections in the and the Incomes of Older Immigrants, Classroom: The Impact of Teacher 1994-2010." Journals of Gerontology, Series Race/Ethnicity on Student Classroom B: Psychological Sciences and Social Experience." Presented at the Population Sciences, 70(2):292-301. 2015. Association of America Annual Meeting. Paluck, E.L., Lagunes, P., Green, D.P., Vavreck, L., San Diego, CA. 2015 Peer, L., and Gomila, R. "Does Product Morris, S.E., Pitzer, V.E., Viboud, C., Metcalf, C.J., Placement Change Television Viewers' Bjornstad, O.N., and Grenfell, B.T. Social Behavior?" PLoS One, "Demographic Buffering: Titrating the 10(9):e0138610. 2015. Effects of Birth Rate and Imperfect Paluck, E.L., Shepherd, H., and Aronow, P. Immunity on Epidemic Dynamics." Journal "Changing Climates of Conflict: A Social of the Royal Science Interface, Network Experiment in 56 Schools." 12(104):20141245. 2015. Proceeding of the National Academy of Morris, S.E., Zelner, J.L., Fauquier, D.A., Rowles, Sciences, 113(3):566-571. In press. T.K., Rosel, P.E., Gulland, F., and Grenfell, Perkins, T.A., Metcalf, C.J., Grenfell, B.T., and B.T. "Partially Observed Epidemics in Tatem, A.J. "Estimating Drivers of Wildlife Hosts: Modelling an Outbreak of Autochthonous Transmission of Dolphin Morbillivirus in the Northwestern Chikungunya Virus in its Invasion of the Atlantic, June 2013-2014." Journal of the Americas." PLoS Currents, 10:7. 2015. Royal Science Interface, 12(112):20150676. Perkins, T.A., Metcalf, C.J.E., Grenfell, B.T., and 2015. Tatem, A.J. "Chikungunya: Forecasting the Moullin, S. "The Demography of Predistribution: Invasion Landscape in the Americas." PLoS Families, Economic Inequalities and Social Currents. In press. Policies." In The Predistributive Agenda: Tackling Inequality and Supporting Sustainable Growth, edited by P. Diamond, and C. Chawlitz. London, UK: IB Taurus. 2015. Office of Population Research 73 2015 Publications Annual Report 2015

Pitzer, V.E., Viboud, C., Alonso, W.J., Wilcox, T., Potter, J.E., Hubert, C., Stevenson, A., Hopkins, Metcalf, C.J., Steiner, C.A., Haynes, A.K., K., Aiken, A.R., White, K., and Grossman, and Grenfell, B.T. "Environmental Drivers D. "Barriers to Postpartum Contraception of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of in Texas and Pregnancy within Two Years of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the United Delivery." Obstetrics & Gynecology, States." PLoS Pathology, 11(1):e1004591. 127(2):289-296. In press. 2015. Reichman, N., Teitler, J.O., Moullin, S., Ostfeld, Portes, A. "Assimilation without a Blueprint: B.M., and Hegyi, T. "Late-Preterm Birth Children of Immigrants in New Places of and Neonatal Morbidities: Population-Level Settlement." In Past as Prologue: The and Within-Family Estimates." Annals of National Academy of Education at 50, edited Epidemiology, 25(12):126-132. 2015. by M.J. Feuer, A.I. Berman, and R.C. Rodríguez, G. "Multilevel Models in Demography." Atkinson. Washington, DC: National In International Encyclopedia of the Social Academy of Education. 2015. and Behavioral Sciences, 2nd Edition, edited Portes, A. “Immigration, Transnationalism, and by J.D. Wright. Oxford: Elsevier. 2015. the Development: The State of the Rosemblum, A., Darity, W., Harris, A., and Question.” In The State and the Grassroots: Hamilton, T. "Looking Through the Shades: Immigrant Transnational Organizations in The Effect of Skin Color on Earnings by Four Continents, edited by A. Portes, and P. Region of Birth and Race for Immigrants to Fernández-Kelly. New York, NY: Berghahn the United States." Sociology of Race and Books. 2015. Ethnicity, 2(1):87-105. In press. Portes, A. "Immigration, Social Change, and Sabater, A., and Massey, D.S. "Contrasting Reactive Ethnicity in the Second Patterns of Migration and Settlement." In Generation." In Hispanic Students in Demographic Analysis of Latin American American Schools, edited by P.R. Portes, Immigrants in Spain: From Boom to Bust?, and S. Salas. Albany, NY: SUNY Press. In edited by A. Domingo, A. Sabater, and R.R. press. Verdugo. London, England: Springer. 2015 Portes, A., and Fernández-Kelly, P. The State and Salganik, M.J., and Levy, K.E.C. "Wiki Surveys: the Grassroots: Immigrant Transnational Open and Quantifiable Social Data Organizations in Four Continents, edited by Collection." PLoS One, 10(5):e0123483. A. Portes, and P. Fernández-Kelly. New 2015. York, NY: Berghahn Books. 2015. Salguero-Gomez, R., Jones, O.R., Archer, C.R., Portes, A., and Marques, M.M. Values, Buckley, Y.M., Che-Castaldo, J., Caswell, Institutional Quality and Development in H., Metcalf, C.J.E., and et al. "The Portugal. Lisbon: Francisco Manuel dos COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database: An Santos Foundation. 2015. Open Online Repository for Plant Portes, A., and Pulrmann, A. "A Bifurcated Demography." Journal of Ecology, 103:202- Enclave: The Economic Evolution of the 218. 2015. Cuban and Cuban-American Population of Sanchez-R, M., and Massey, D.S. "Migracion de Metropolitan Miami." Cuban Studies, Talento y Profesionales Cualificados: El 43:40-63. 2015. Caso Reciente de Inmigrantes Venezolanos Portes, A., Aparicio, R., and Haller, W. Spanish a EEUU." In Diáspora de Talento, Migracion Legacies: The Coming of Age of the Second y Educadión en Venezuela, edited by R.D. Generation. Berkeley, CA: University of Peralta, C.L. Vollmer, and F.K. Vegas. California Press. In press. Caracas: Fundaciób de Talento Venezolano Portes, A., and Medvedeva, M. "Immigrant en el Exterior. In press. Bilingualism in Spain: An Asset or a Sevillano, V., and Fiske, S.T. "Warmth and Liability?" International Migration Review. Competence in Animals." Journal of Applied In press. Social Psychology. In press.

Office of Population Research 74 2015 Publications Annual Report 2015

Shepherd, H., and Paluck, E.L. "Stopping The Takahashi, S., Giao, Q., Van Boeckel, T.P., Xing, Drama Gendered Influence in a Network W., Sun, J., Hsiao, V.Y., Metcalf, C.J., Field Experiment." Social Psychology Chang, Z., Liu, F., Zhang, J., Wu, J.T., Quarterly, 78(2):173-193. 2015. Cowling, B.J., Leung, G.M., Farrar, J.J., Short, S.E., and Goldberg, R.E. "Children Living van Doom, H.R., and Grenfell, B.T. "Hand, with HIV-Infected Adults: Estimates for 23 Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Countries in sub-Saharan Africa." PLoS Modeling Epidemic Dynamics of One, 10(11):e0142580. 2015. Enterovirus Serotypes and Implications for Smith, N.K., Madeira, J., and Millard, H. "Sexual Vaccination." PLoS Medicine, Function and Fertility Quality of Life in 13(2):e1001958. In press. Women Using Invitro Fertilization." Journal Tankard, M., and Paluck, E.L. "Norm Perception of Sexual Medicine, 12:985-993. 2015. as a Vehicle for Social Change." Social Smith, N., Butler, S., Wagner, B., Collazo, E., and Issues and Policy Review, 10(1):181-211. In Herbenick, D. "Genital Self-Image and press. Considerations of Elective Genital Surgery." Tannen, J. "Measuring Neighborhood Change as Journal of Sex and Marital Therapy. In the Movement of Emergent Boundaries." press. Presented at the Population Association of Sternberg, R.L., and Fiske, S.T. Ethical Challenges America Annual Meeting. San Diego, CA. in the Behavioral and Brain Sciences: Case 2015. Studies and Commentaries. Cambridge Telles, E.E., Flores, R.D., and Urrea-Giraldo, F. University Press: New York, NY. 2015. "Pigmentocracies: Skin Color, Census Sternberg, R.J., Fiske, S.T., and Foss, D.J. In Ethnoracial Categories and Educational Scientists Making a Difference: 100 Eminent inequality in Eight Latin American Behavioral and Brain Scientists Talk about Countries." Research in Social Stratification their Most Important Contributions, edited by and Mobility, 40:39-58. 2015. R.J. Sternberg, S.T. Fiske, and D.J. Foss. Thompson, C.N., Zelner, J.L., Nhu Tdo, H., Phan, In press. M.V., Hoang, L.P., Nguyen Thanh, H., Vu Swencionis, J.K., and Fiske, S.T. "Promote Up, Thuy, D., Minh Nguyen, N., Ha Manh, T., Ingratiate Down: Status Comparisons Drive Van Hoang Minh, T., Lu Lan, V., Grenfell, Warmth-Competence Tradeoffs in B.T., and et al. "The Impact of Impression Management." Journal of Environmental and Climatic Variation on Experimental Social Psychology, 64:27-34. the Spatiotemporal Trends of Hospitalized In press. Pediatric Diarrhea in Ho Chi Minh City, Tablante, C.B., and Fiske, S.T. "Teaching Social Vietnam." Health & Place, 35:147-154. Class." Teaching of Psychology, 42(2):184- 2015. 190. 2015. Thorkelson, S. "Consequences of Migration Policy Takahashi, S., Metcalf, C.J., Ferrari, M.J., Moss, for Second Generation Political Participation W.J., Truelove, S., Tatem, A.J., Grenfell, in Europe." Presented at the Population B.T., and Lessler, J. "Reduced Vaccination Association of America Annual Meeting. and the Risk of Measles and Other San Diego, CA. 2015. Childhood Infections Post-Ebola." Science, Tian, H., Zhou, S., Dong, L., Van Boeckel, T.P., 347(6227):1240-1242. 2015. Cui, Y., Wu, Y., Cazelles, B., Huang, S., Takahashi, S., Metcalf, C.J.E., Ferrari, M., Yang, R., Grenfell, B.T., and Xu, B. "Avian Truelove, S., Grenfell, B.T., and Lessler, J. Influenza H5N1 Viral and Bird Migration "The Growing Risk from Measles and Other Networks in Asia." Proceedings of the Childhood Infections in the Wake of Ebola." National Academy of Sciences, 112(1):172- Science, 247:1240-1242. 2015. 177. 2015. Tienda, M. "Affirmative Action and its Discontents: America's Obsession with Race." In Past as Prologue: The National Academy of Education at 50, edited by M.M. Feuer, and et al. Washington, DC: National Academy of Education. 2015.

Office of Population Research 75 2015 Publications Annual Report 2015

Tienda, M. "Multiplying Diversity: Family Turney, K., and McLanahan, S.S. "The Academic Unification and the Regional Origins of Consequences of Early Childhood Problem Late-Age Immigrants." International Behaviors." Social Science Research, Migration Review, DOI: 10.111/imre.12241. 54:131-145. 2015. 2015. Van Boeckel, T.P., Brower, C., Gilbert, M., Tienda, M. "Texas' Educational Challenge: A Grenfell, B.T., Levin, S.A., Robinson, T.P., Demographic Dividend or Bust?" In Ten- Teillant, A., and Laxminarayan, R. "Global Gallon Economy Sizing Up Economic Growth Trends in Antimicrobial Use in Food in Texas, edited by P.M. Orreniua. Palgrave Animals." Proceeding of the National Macmillan: New York, NY. 2015. Academy of Sciences, 112(18):5649-5654. Tienda, M. "Diversity as a Strategic Advantage: A 2015. Socio-Demographic Perspective." In Our Vasunilashorn, A., Lynch, S.M., Glei, D., Compelling Interests: The Value of Diversity Weinstein, M., and Goldman, N. "Exposure for Democracy and a Prosperous Society, to Stressors and Trajectories of Perceived edited by N. Kantor, and E. Lewis. Stress among Older Adults." Journal of Princeton University Press: Princeton, NJ. Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences In press. and Social Sciences, 70(2):329-337. 2015. Todd, M., Shkolnikov, M., and Goldman, N. "Why Vogl, T., and Bharadwaj, P. "Crisis and Human are Well-Educated Muscovites More Likely Biology." In The Oxford Handbook of to Survive? Understanding the Biological Economics and Human Biology, edited by J. Pathways." Social Science & Medicine, Komlos, and I. Kelly. Doi: 157(May):138-147. In press. 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199389292.013.4. Trussell, J. and ESHRE Capri Workshop Group. 2015. "Emergency Contraception. Widely Vogl, T. "Differential Fertility, Human Capital, and Available and Effective but Disappointing as Development." Review of Economic Studies, a Public Health Intervention: A Review." 83(1):365-401. In press. Human Reproduction, 30(4):751-760. 2015. Vogl, T., Fujiwara, T., and Meng, K. "Habit Trussell, J., and Guthrie, K. "Lessons from the Formation in Voting: Evidence from Rainy Contraceptive CHOICE Project: The Hull Elections." American Economic Journal: Long-Acting Reversible Contraceptive Applied Economics. In press. (LARC) Initiative." Journal of Family Wesolowski, A., Metcalf, C.J., Eagle, N., Kombich, Planning and Reproductive Health Care, J., Grenfell, B.T., Bjornstad, O.N., Lessler, 41(1):60-63. 2015. J., Tatem, A.J., and Buckee, C.O. Trussell, J., Hassan, F., Lowan, J., Law, A., and "Quantifying Seasonal Population Fluxes Filonenko, A. "Achieving Cost-Neutrality Driving Rubella Transmission Dynamics with Long-Acting Reversible Contraceptive using Mobile Phone Data." Proceeding of Methods." Contraception, 91(1):49-56. the National Academy of Sciences, 2015. 112(35):11114-11119. 2015. Tumlinson, K., Okigbo, C., and Speizer, I. White, K., Hopkins, K., Aiken, A.R., Stevenson, A., "Provider Barriers to Family Planning Hubert, C., Grossman, D., and Potter, J.E. access in Urban Kenya." Contraception, "The Impact of Reproductive Health 41(2):69079. 2015. Legislation on Family Planning Clinic Tumlinson, K., Pence, B., Curtis, S., Marshall, S., Services in Texas." American Journal of and Speizer, I. "Quality of Care and Public Health, 105(5):851-858. 2015. Contraceptive use in Urban Kenya." International Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, 41(2):143-151. 2015. Tung, J., Barreiro, L.B., Burns, M.B., Grenier, J.C., Lynch, J., Grieneisen, L.E., Altmann, J., Alberts, S.C., Blekhman, R., and Archie, E.A. "Social Networks Predict Gut Microbiome Composition in Wild Baboons." eLife, 16(4). 2015.

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White, R.G., Hakim, A.J., Salganik, M.J., Spiller, M.W., Johnston, L.G., Kerr, L.R.F.S., Kendall, C., Drake, A., Wilson, D., Orroth, K., Egger, M., and Hladik, W.W. "Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology for Respondent-Driven Sampling Studies: STROBE-RDS Statement." Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 68(12):1463-1471. 2015. Wiebe, E.P., and Trussell, J. "Discontinuation Rates and Acceptability During 1 Year of Using the Intrauterine Ball (the SCu380A)." Contraception, 93(4):354-366. In press. Winter, A. "Rubella Vaccination in India: Identifying Broad Consequences of Vaccination Introduction, Key Knowledge, Gaps, and Recommendations for Addressing Them." Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases. Athens, GA. 2015.

Office of Population Research 77 Training in Demography at Princeton

Training in Demography at Princeton three graduate courses and a supervised research project. Applicants are usually enrolled MPA Demography has been a topic for graduate study students from the Woodrow Wilson School. at Princeton since the founding of the Office of Population Research (OPR) in 1936. The field Ph.D. in Demography encompasses a wide range of specializations, including substantive and methodological subjects A small number of entering graduate students in the social, mathematical, and biological with a strong interest in population and a strong sciences. OPR faculty associates have broad quantitative background, often in statistics, interests that extend far beyond conventional mathematics, or environmental sciences (though topics in population analysis. For example, areas not limited to these fields), will be accepted into a of current research among OPR faculty include course of study leading to a Ph.D. in Demography. poverty and child wellbeing, the biological and For the Program in Population Studies, applicants socioeconomic correlates of aging and health, are required to submit scores from the Graduate population and the environment, population and Record Exam (GRE), and for those students whose development, population policy, poverty and child native language is not English and who have not wellbeing, social and economic demography, and had advanced training at an English-speaking statistical and mathematical demography, institution, the Test of English as a Foreign reproductive health and technology, family Language (TOEFL) is also required. Application structure, and migration and development. should be made to Population Studies (POP). Teaching and research specializations are focused on both industrialized countries (primarily the As part of this program of graduate training, U.S.) and developing nations. The extensive students are required to demonstrate basic breadth of research is facilitated by OPR's links competence in mathematics and statistics, as well with several other research organizations. as mastery of demography and a related discipline (e.g., sociology, economics, or social policy). The program offers four levels of certification of Specific requirements include completion of graduate training. First, the Program in Population general examinations, two research papers of Studies offers a Ph.D. in demography that is publishable quality, and the Ph.D. dissertation. intended for students who wish to specialize in The general examinations consist of three demography and receive additional training in examinations, usually taken over the course of two technical and substantive areas. Second, the years, in which the student must demonstrate Program in Population Studies (PIPS) offers a proficiency in basic demographic theory and general examination in demography that is methods as well as proficiency in two of the accepted by the Department of Sociology and the following fields of concentration: economic Woodrow Wilson School of Public and demography, family demography, fertility/ International Affairs as partial fulfillment of their fecundity, health, historical demography, degree requirements. Those students who elect to mathematical/statistical demography, migration/ specialize in population may also write their immigration, mortality, population and dissertations on a demographic subject. Third, development, population and environment, students interested in social policy who initially population policy, poverty/child wellbeing, and apply to the Joint Degree Program in Social Policy urbanization. More detailed information on degree (JDP) may earn a joint degree in Demography and requirements may be obtained from the Director of Social Policy by completing requirements Graduate Studies or the Graduate Administrator established by PIPS and the Joint Degree Program for the program. (JDP). Fourth, the Program offers a non-degree Certificate in Demography upon completion of

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Departmental Degree with semester. WWS 587 entails the completion of an Specialization in Population individual or joint research project, under the supervision of an OPR faculty or research staff The majority of students who study at the OPR are member. A decision on the fourth course is made doctoral candidates in the Department of together with the Director of Graduate Studies. Sociology who choose to specialize in population. Applicants are usually enrolled MPA students from To do so, they must complete the general the Woodrow Wilson School. The certificate examination in demography and write a program is intended primarily for training scholars dissertation on a demographic subject, supervised from other disciplines and does not lead to an by program faculty, as part of their departmental advanced degree at Princeton. requirements. The Ph.D. is earned in the primary discipline, e.g. Sociology. Training Resources

Joint-Degree Program Training opportunities at the Office of Population Research are enhanced by the strength of its Students interested in social policy who initially resources, such as The Ansley J. Coale apply to the Joint Degree Program in Social Policy Population Research Collection in the Donald E. (JDP) may earn a joint degree in Demography and Stokes Library, located in Wallace Hall, the home Social Policy. To qualify for a joint degree, the of OPR. It is one of the oldest demography student must fulfill all home departmental libraries in the world. Founded as OPR’s requirements, including passing the general specialized research library, it is now a special examination in demography and writing a library in the Princeton University Library dissertation on a topic related to the study of system. The Coale Collection is considered to be population. In addition, the candidate for the joint the premier collection of demographic material in degree must pass a general examination in one the country. The highly trained library staff additional specialized field of population beyond provides superb support to students, assisting what is required for the standard departmental them in conducting literature searches of all degree. Permission to do the joint degree is pertinent databases, tracking and obtaining obtained from the Director of Graduate Studies for pertinent material through interlibrary loans, and the Program in Population Studies. It is not conducting training classes for students who are necessary to apply for the JDP as part of the interested in learning the latest technological application to Princeton. The decision to apply for advances in library science to assist them in their the joint degree is usually made by students research. during their second or third year of study. The OPR is also home to the Bendheim-Thoman Certificate in Demography Center for Research on Child Wellbeing (CRCW); additional information about CRCW is available on the OPR website at http://crcw.princeton.edu/. The Office of Population Research, in connection The OPR is also affiliated with the Center for with the Program in Population Studies, offers a Health and Wellbeing (CHW) and the Center for non-degree Certificate in Demography to those Migration and Development (CMD). Additional who successfully complete four graduate courses information about CHW is available at in population studies: POP 501/ECO 571/SOC http://www.princeton.edu/chw/, and for CMD, at 531/; POP 502/ECO 572/SOC 532; WWS 587, https://www-dept-edit.princeton.edu/cmd/. and one other approved elective course pertaining These centers, which are all housed in Wallace to some aspect of population. The first two are the Hall and fully accessible and utilized by OPR basic graduate courses in demography: POP 501 is graduate students and visiting scholars, provide offered in the fall semester and is a prerequisite excellent funding and research opportunities, for POP 502, which is offered in the spring conferences, and seminars.

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OPR faculty and students organize several lecture POP 503 series. The Notestein Seminars is a weekly formal Evaluation of Demographic Research seminar given both by distinguished outside Noreen Goldman speakers and by staff and students of the OPR. This course is designed for doctoral students in The students also organize their own brownbag their third year of a specialization in demography. seminar series in a less formal setting in which One objective of the course is to examine critically they present works in progress or discuss the how researchers tackle demographic research development of ideas for research topics. The questions. A second related goal is to explore the CRCW hosts a regular weekly working group construction of a dissertation and a research luncheon; the CMD organizes a colloquium series. paper. The CHW holds regular weekly afternoon lectures, as well as co-hosts seminars with other centers POP 506/SOC 506 and programs. Conferences hosted by the various Research Ethics and Scientific Integrity centers also provide excellent opportunities for Elizabeth Armstrong, Harold Shapiro trainees to gain familiarity with both the most This course examines the ethical issues arising in current research and the leading researchers in the context of scientific research. It evaluates the the field. role and responsibilities of professional researchers in dealing with plagiarism, fraud, Courses conflict over authorial credit, and ownership of data. In addition, it undertakes a broader inquiry POP 501/ECO 57l/SOC 53l into conceptions of professional integrity, and the responsibilities that scientists have to their Survey of Population Problems research subjects, to their students and Thomas J. Espenshade apprentices, as well as to society at large. This course is the first part of a two-course graduate sequence in demography. Students POP507/WWS 509 /ECO 509 survey past and current trends in the growth of Generalized Linear Statistical Models the population of the world and of selected regions Germán Rodriguez and conduct analysis of the components of growth The analysis of survey data using generalized and their determinants and of the social and linear statistical models. The course begins with a economic consequences of population change. review of linear models for continuous responses and then considers logistic regression models for POP 502/ECO 572/SOC 532 binary data and log-linear models for count data, Research Methods in Demography including rates and contingency tables and hazard Tod Hamilton models for duration data. Attention is given to the This course is the second part of a two-course logical and mathematical foundations of the graduate sequence in demography. It covers techniques, but the main emphasis is on the methods used in the study of population, applications, including computer usage. including rates and standardization; techniques designed for the analysis of mortality, nuptiality, and fertility; deterministic and stochastic approaches to population projections; the stationary and stable population models and their application. We pay attention to data quality, and consider survey data as well as vital registration and censuses. The course focuses on classic demographic approaches with pointers to relevant statistical methods where appropriate.

Office of Population Research 80 Training in Demography at Princeton Annual Report 2015

POP 508/WWS 598 PERTINENT COURSES IN ALLIED Epidemiology DEPARTMENTS Noreen Goldman This course focuses on the measurement of health ECO 503 status, illness occurrence, mortality and impact of Macroeconomic Theory I associated risk factors; techniques for design, Richard Rogerson analysis and interpretation of epidemiologic First term of a two-term sequence in research studies; sources of bias and confounding; macroeconomics. Topics include consumption, and causal inference. Other topics include saving, and investment; real interest rates and foundations of modern epidemiology, the asset prices; long-term economic growth; money epidemiologic transition, reemergence of infectious and inflation; and econometric methods for disease, social inequalities in health, and ethical macroeconomics. issues. Course examines bridging of "individual- centered" epidemiology and "macro-epidemiology" ECO 513 to recognize social, economic and cultural context, Advanced Econometrics: Time Series Models assess impacts on populations, and provide inputs Ulrich K. Mueller , Mark W. Watson for public health and health policy. Concepts and methods of time series analysis and their applications to economics. Time series models POP 509 to be studied include simultaneous stochastic Survival Analysis equations, VAR, ARIMA, and statespace models. Germán Rodríguez Methods to analyze trends, second moment This course focuses on statistical analysis of time- properties via the auto covariance function and the to-event or survival data, introduces hazard & spectral density function, methods of estimation survival functions, censoring mechanisms, and hypothesis testing and of model selection will parametric & non-parametric estimation, and be presented. Kalman filter and applications as comparison of survival curves. The course covers well as unit roots, cointegration, ARCH, and continuous and discrete-time regression models, structural breaks models are also studied. with emphasis on Cox's proportional hazards model and partial likelihood estimation, and ECO 517 discusses competing risk models, unobserved Econometric Theory I heterogeneity, and multivariate survival models Christopher A. Sims including event history analysis. The course A first-year course in the first-year econometrics emphasizes basic concepts and techniques as well sequence: it is divided into two parts. The first as social science applications. gives students the necessary background in probability theory and statistics. Topics include POP 510 definitions and axioms of probability, moments, Multilevel Models some univariate distributions, the multivariate Germán Rodríguez normal distribution, sampling distributions, This course is an introduction to statistical introduction to asymptotic theory, estimation and methods for the analysis of multilevel data, such testing. The second part introduces the linear as data on children, families, and neighborhoods. regression model and develops associated tools. The course reviews fixed- and random-effects Properties of the ordinary least squares estimator models for clustered and longitudinal data; will be studied in detail and a number of tests presents multilevel random-intercept and random- developed. slope models; discusses model fitting and interpretation, centering and estimation of cross- level interactions, and includes extensions to binary and count data using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. The course emphasizes practical applications using the multilevel package MLwiN.

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ECO 518 ECO 563 Econometric Theory II Economic Development II Bo E. Honoré, Ulrich K. Mueller Anne C. Case, Angus S. Deaton This course begins with extensions of the linear Selected topics in the economic analysis of model in several directions: (1) pre-determined but development beyond those covered in 562. Topics not exogenous regressors; (2) heteroskedasticity are selected from the theory and measurement of and serial correlation; (3) classical GLS; (4) poverty and inequality; the relationship between instrumental variables and generalized method of growth and poverty; health and education in movements estimators. Applications include economic development; saving, growth, population, simultaneous equation models, VARS and panel and development; commodity prices in economic data. Estimation and inference in non-linear development. models are discussed. Applications include nonlinear least squares, discrete dependent ECO 565 variables (probit, logit, etc.), problems of Health Economics I censoring, truncation and sample selection, and Janet M. Currie, Angus S. Deaton models for duration data. Examines health issues in both developed and developing countries. Specific topics include the ECO 531 evolution of health over the life course; the fetal Economics of Labor origins hypothesis; the two-way links between Will S. Dobbie, Henry S. Farber, Alexandre Mas socioeconomic status and health; the impact of An examination of the economics of the labor social safety nets on health outcomes; market, especially the forces determining the environmental threats to children's health and supply of and demand for labor, the level of development; health insurance and its effects on unemployment, labor mobility, the structure of health; the industrial organization of health care relative wages, and the general level of wages. delivery; and the relationship between health and economic growth. ECO 532 Topics in Labor Economics POL 571 Orley C. Ashenfelter, Alexandre Mas Quantitative Analysis I The course surveys both the theoretical literature David B. Carter and the relevant empirical methods and results in This is a first course in statistics for social selected current research topics in labor scientists. Students will learn to explore data economics. creatively and to conduct straightforward statistical analyses. Basic probability and statistical theory ECO 562 will also be taught. There is no prerequisite except Economic Development I high school mathematics and a willingness to learn Anne Case elementary calculus. An examination of those areas in the economic analysis of development where there have been POL 572 recent analytical or empirical advances. Emphasis Quantitative Analysis II is given to the formulation of theoretical models Marc Ratkovic and econometric analysis and testing. Topics This course builds upon POL 571 and introduces covered include models of household/farm students to applied regression analysis in cross- behavior, savings behavior, equity and efficiency in section settings. It begins with the basic principles pricing policy, project evaluation, measurement of of statistical inference, and then covers various poverty and inequality, and the analysis of statistical techniques including linear regression, commodity prices. instrumental variables, structural equation models, maximum likelihood estimation, and discrete choice models. The materials are taught at the level of Hayashi's Econometrics, and Freedman's Statistical Methods. Prerequisite: POL 502 (or permission of instructor) and POL 571.

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POL 574 SOC 505 Quantitative Analysis IV Research Seminar in Empirical Investigation John B. Londregan Andreas Wimmer An introduction to the basic analytical and Preparation of research papers based on field computational tools of applied Bayesian statistics. observation, laboratory experiments, survey Methods covered include multi-level models, procedures, and secondary analysis of existing mixture modeling, Bayesian model averaging, and data banks. models for missing data and causal inference; computational tools taught include the EM SOC 560 algorithm and the Markov chain Monte Carlo Topics in Social Stratification (Half-Term) – algorithms. Goal of the course is to enable Race and Schooling students to build and implement their own model Angel L. Harris in order to answer a particular research question. Education is becoming increasingly important for Course may be of interest to those in disciplines upward social mobility in the U.S. and abroad and outside of political science who need to learn the has been linked to societal inequalities in health, basics of applied Bayesian statistics. income, and other life-chance measures. This seminar engages both quantitative and qualitative SOC 503 studies and focuses on 1) the historical trends and Techniques and Methods of Social Science understanding of racial/ethnic differences in Alejandro Portes achievement, and 2) the current issues/debates This course seeks to cover classic and within the sociology of education literature. In contemporary approaches to social research with addition to considering the relative an emphasis on the logic of formulating questions underachievement of blacks and latino/as, this to the empirical world and seeking reliable course also examines the academic success of answers to them. Students will be asked to Asian Americans and Asians living within the U.S. formulate and defend a research proposal on a topic of their choice. The elaboration of this SOC 578 research proposal is a central goal of the course. Sociology of Migration, Development and The core emphasis will be on the logic of theory Ethnicity formulation and hypothesis testing. Edward E. Telles This course will be taught as a hands-on practicum SOC 504 on research on immigration and development, Advanced Social Statistics especially the former. It will supplement the Center Scott M. Lynch for Migration and Development's (CMD) symposium Thorough examination of the linear regression talk during the 2012-13 academic year. We will model with a focus on both the theory underlying discuss the ongoing work of CMD speakers, the model and the application of regression using students, post-docs and other members of the contemporary software. Topics include 1) university community that work on migration or probability theory underlying statistical modeling development. We expect that participants will and hypothesis testing in general, 2) assumptions attend the CMD symposium talks, read the paper underlying the linear model, 3) estimation of the associated with each week's discussion and be model via least squares, maximum likelihood, and active participants in the discussion. Bayesian approaches, 4) diagnosing violations of assumptions, assessing the consequences of violations, and remedying them, and 5) extending the model and estimation methods to other data settings.

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WWS 507C WWS 511D Quantitative Analysis (Advanced) Microeconomics Analysis (Accelerated) Eduardo Morales Marc Fleurbaey Statistical analysis with applications to public Course covers many key concepts from policy. The course begins with an introduction to microeconomic theory, including consumer and probability theory followed by discussion of producer theory, competitive markets, market statistical methods for estimating the quantitative power, information and contracts. Emphasis of the effects of changes in policy variables. Regression course is on developing a formal, model-based methods appropriate for the analysis of treatment of these subjects and applying them to observational data and data from randomized various relevant policy issues. The course is controlled experiments are stressed. The basic intended for those students who are already level (507B) assumes a fluency in high school familiar with microeconomic concepts (at the level algebra and some familiarity with calculus, while of 511c) and have an appropriate level of the advanced level (507C) assumes a fluency in mathematical proficiency, including knowledge of calculus. multivariate calculus (including constrained optimization), basic probability, and some WWS 508C familiarity with linear algebra. Econometrics and Public Policy (Advanced) Franco Peracchi WWS 512C Discusses the main tools of econometric analysis, Macroeconomic Analysis (Advanced) and the way in which they are applied to a range Roland J. Benabou of problems in social science. Emphasis is on Course offers a broad treatment of macroeconomic using techniques, and on understanding and theory and policy issues, using the formal methods critically assessing others' use of them. There is a of modern macroeconomics. Topics will include great deal of practical work on the computer using long-run growth and development, labor, a range of data from around the world. Topics consumption, savings and investment decisions, include regression analysis, with a focus on the role of expectations, short-run fluctuations and regression as a tool for analyzing non- stabilization policy, inflation and unemployment, experimental data, discrete choice, and an trade and exchange rates. The course is advanced, introduction to time series analysis. There are so that: (i) having had some introductory course in applications from macroeconomics, policy macroeconomics is a prerequisite, and an evaluation, and economic development. intermediate-level one is best; (ii) the course Prerequisite: grounding in topics covered in 507c. requires a solid command of microeconomic theory (511 c or d) and good comfort with algebra and WWS 511C calculus. Microeconomic Analysis (Advanced) Jan K. De Loecker WWS 515B This course is an introduction to the use of Program and Policy Evaluation microeconomics for the analysis of public policy Jean B. Grossman on an advanced level. The emphasis is on both the This course introduces students to evaluation. It intuitive and formal logic of economic principles, a explores ways: to develop and implement research deeper perspective on the impacts of typical policy based program improvement strategies and measures, and an introduction to the use of program accountability systems; to judge the professional microeconomic tools to assess and effects of policies and programs; and to assess the weigh these policy impacts. One goal is to move benefits and costs of policy or program changes. students towards the ability to read professional Students study a wide range of evaluation tools; microeconomic literature with appreciation of both read and discuss both domestic and international its contributions and foibles. evaluation examples and apply this knowledge by designing several different types of evaluations on programs of their choosing.

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WWS 515C WWS 564 /POP 504 Program and Policy Evaluation – Impact Poverty, Inequality and Health in the World Evaluation Tools Enrollment Lorenzo Moreno Angus S. Deaton This course presents tools for designing, About well-being throughout the world, with focus implementing, and analyzing impact evaluations on income and health. Explores what happened to from a practitioner's perspective. It explores real- poverty, inequality, and health, in the US, and world problems and practical limitations internationally. Discusses conceptual foundations frequently encountered in conducting evaluations of national and global measures of inequality, and methodological tools to address them. Topics poverty, and health; construction of measures, and include program operation rules and their extent to which they can be trusted; relationship implications for design choice, process and between globalization, poverty, and health, standards for assessing evidence, challenges to historically and currently. Examines links between randomization, sample size determination, health and income, why poor people are less complex sample design, and construction of healthy and live less long than rich people. analytic and nonresponse weights. Students will practice addressing these issues through a series WWS 571C of case studies and analytic exercises. Topics in Development: Challenges of Infection, Burden and Control WWS 537/ SOC 537 Bryan T. Grenfell, Adel A. Mahmoud Social Organization of Cities An exploration of the biological, public health and Douglas S. Massey global dimensions of infectious disease. The basic A review of the historical emergence and social features of human-microbe interactions by evolution of cities and urban life. Course presents examining several viral, bacterial and parasitic current theories regarding the ecological and infections are analyzed. Emphasis includes biology, social structure of urban areas, and how urban burden of illness and domestic and global forces social organization affects the behavior and well- shaping the expanding threat. Control strategies, being of human beings who live and work in cities. including chemotherapy, vaccines and environmental changes; and the role of WWS 562C international organizations such as WHO, UNICEF, Economic Analysis of Development (Advanced) and GAVI and the major philanthropies, are Anne C. Case considered. Considers theories and evidence to explain processes of economic development; examines WWS 582A theories of economic growth, and the two-way Topics in Applied Economics – Urban links between development and poverty, Economics inequality, social institutions, and the family. Esteban A. Rossi-Hansberg Policy debates on education, health, and social This is a course in urban and regional economics. policy, and governmental and international aid are Course studies the main economic forces that lead also covered. to the emergence of cities and regional agglomeration, and the effects on worker productivity, urban amenities, and congestion. Course discusses the problems in measuring these urban characteristics, the methodologies to do it, as well as the design of optimal urban policy. Course also studies the economic theory and evidence on the internal structure of cities, as well as the policies that can enhance urban living. Finally, the course analyzes the role cities play in aggregate economic development.

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WWS 590A / ECO 581L WWS 593A Economic Perspective on Inequality (Half- Topics in Policy Analysis (Half-Term) - Lessons Term) from OECD Social Policies Anne M. Piehl Alícia Adserá Economics is centrally concerned with models of This course focuses on the opportunities, human capital development, educational constraints and roles of women in an increasingly attainment, labor market dynamics, interdependent economy. Topics will include: unemployment, labor turnover, job duration, wage dynamics & causes of fertility changes & setting institutions, the role of unions, human household formation; maternal & infant health; capital formation, the relationship between gender & labor market institutions--types of economic status and other aspects of well-being contracts, informality, wage gaps & discrimination, (including health). Economists are essential unpaid work; intra-household allocation of partners in the behavioral study of preferences resources & differential mortality rates; women's and decision making, mobility and redistribution, migration--selection & outcomes at destination, and the institutions of industrial relations that family reunification, remittances; differential govern the labor market. access to education & health; credit market; & political & property rights. WWS 590C / SOC 571 Sociological Studies of Inequality WWS 593B/POP 504B Douglas S. Massey Reproductive Health and Reproductive Rights This segment of the JDP seminar covers theory James Trussell, Abigail Aiken and research on social stratification, the major This course examines selected topics in subfield in sociology that focuses on inequality. reproductive health, with primary emphasis on Course begins by reviewing major theories, contemporary domestic issues in the United constructs, measures, and empirical work on States-such as unintended pregnancy, abortion, inequality. Weeks two through six focus on adolescent pregnancy, and sexually transmitted institutions that are expected to produce (and infection-but within the context of the international reproduce) inequalities, including families, agenda on reproductive rights established in the neighborhoods, schools, labor markets, and penal 1994 Cairo International Conference on Population policy. and Development.

WWS 590D WWS 593C Psychological Studies of Inequality Topics in Policy Analysis (Half-Term): Game Susan T. Fiske Theory and Strategy Two major areas of psychology make important Sylvain Chassang contributions to the study of social policy and Introduces some basics about game theory (and inequality. The first is social psychology, which perhaps debunk a few myths fostered by the movie focuses on inter-group relations, interpersonal "A Beautiful Mind"). Course is designed around the perception, stereotyping, racism, aggression, structure of game theoretic models, building from justice and fairness. These are the micro-level the simple ones to the more sophisticated. At each building blocks of structural inequalities and stage the emphasis will be on applications. These processes that are shaped by the larger context of include models of oligopoly, bargaining, military race, ethnic and gender relations. The second conflict, legislative voting, and the design of the domain involves the fields of social-cognition, rules under which to negotiate, vote, or hold an judgment and decision making, areas of research auction. that study human information processing in a way that is not about individual differences, and often not social.

Office of Population Research 86 Training in Demography at Princeton Annual Report 2015

WWS 593E WWS 594C Topics in Policy Analysis (Half-Term) - Surveys, Maternal & Child Health: Culture, Controversy Polls and Public Policy & Policy Edward P. Freeland Elizabeth Armstrong Course aims to improve students' abilities to Despite the oft-invoked credo of 'women and understand and critically evaluate public opinion children first,' policies to promote and protect polls and surveys, particularly as they are used to maternal and child health often seem to receive influence public policy. Course begins with an short shrift in the policy arena. This course overview of contrasting perspectives on the role of explores contemporary issues in maternal and public opinion in politics, then examines the child health, with attention to both the evidence evolution of public opinion polling in the US and base for policies as well as the cultural norms and other countries. Class visits a major polling in the values that make strategies to keep mothers and US and other countries. Class visits a major babies healthy surprisingly controversial at times. polling operation to get a firsthand look at The focus will be on the U.S., although the procedures used for designing representative readings will include global perspectives and samples and conducting surveys by telephone, students may choose to focus their course papers mail and Internet. on other societies.

WWS 593G WWS 594D Topics in Policy Analysis (Half-Term) - Surveys, Topics in Policy Analysis (Half-Term) - Polls and Public Policy Controversies in State and Local Health Marc Fleurbaey Regulation The course presents the economic concepts Heather H. Howard involved in the evaluation of the socio-economic This course will address state and local regulation effects of public policies. It shows how concrete of public health and health care. It will explore the measures and indicators are grounded on ethical opportunities and limits of government intervention principles. It is organized around central ethical to promote health and addressing health care debates: Is there an efficiency-equity trade-off? Are deficits, with case examples drawn from New York there legitimate inequalities? How much priority City, New Jersey and other city and state should be given to the worse-off? Are interpersonal experiences. The course combines in-depth comparisons of well-being impossible? Why not reading, discussion, lectures, and written maximize happiness? Should we discount future assignments; readings will be drawn from current generations? health policy literature, state and local government primary sources, and news analysis. WWS 594A Topics in Policy Analysis (Half-Term) – WWS 594J Policymaking in Diverse Societies Topics in Policy Analysis (Half-Term) - Rafaela M. Dancygier Agriculture & Climate Change: Feeding a Hot & This course investigates how ethnic diversity Hungry Planet influences the policymaking process in democratic Timothy D. Searchinger societies, with a focus on Europe and the United By some estimates, agriculture contributes 30% of States. We will first address why and how ethnic world greenhouse gas emissions, including its role diversity shapes individuals' and groups' beliefs, in tropical deforestation. Reducing these emissions preferences, and behaviors in ways that shape the while producing the additional food needed for an formulation of policy. Next the course will examine expected 9 billion people in 2050 represents one of the consequences of ethnic diversity on policy the great challenges of our age. This concentrated areas that all societies confront (such as half semester course will explore the sources of redistribution and economic development) as well agricultural emissions, agriculture's role in shaping as policy areas that emerge as a result of diversity world land use, the locations and causes of world (such as affirmative action or immigrant hunger, and technical and policy options for integration). meeting this challenge.

Office of Population Research 87 Training in Demography at Princeton Annual Report 2015

WWS 594K WWS 597 Topics in Policy Analysis (Half Term) - The The Political Economy of Health Systems Development Challenge of HIV/AIDS Uwe E. Reinhardt Keith E. Hansen This course explores the professed and unspoken This seminar will review the origins of HIV, the goals nations pursue with their health systems and multiple impacts of AIDS, the reasons for the alternative economic and administrative sustained global neglect, the foundations of structures different nations use to pursue those effective prevention & treatment programs, & the goals. The emphasis in the course will be on the urgent need to improve monitoring & evaluation. industrialized world, although some time can be Special attention will be given to the role of social allocated later in the course to approaches used in factors in the epidemic. Course participants will the developing countries, if students in the course examine the policy-making process related to desire it. global public goods, & consider whether the world is better positioned to avert a resurgence of this pandemic or the emergence of the next threat.

WWS 594T International Migration and Public Policy Marta Tienda This course examines the historical and contemporary literature on international migration, the policies that enable or impede cross-national migration, and the consequences for the sending and receiving states as well as the migrants themselves. Drawing on contemporary international evidence, students will consider classical and contemporary theories of immigrant adaptation, language acculturation, and ethnic conflict from comparative international evidence.

WWS 596 Controversies in Health Policy – Historical Perspectives Keith A. Wailoo Examines historical pathways in shaping recent health policies. Among the topics examined: Medicare's history, failed Clinton reforms, and 2010 health legislation as case studies of diverse pathways toward reform; Ritalin as insight into FDA policy, direct-to-consumer drug advertising, and prescription practices; recent vaccine debates which sit at the intersection of science, consumer beliefs, economics, and state health policy; and physician-assisted suicide in medicine, law, and the courts. Emphasis on analyzing role of government, political ideology, consumers, industry, scientists, and regulatory interests in health policy formation.

Office of Population Research 88 OPR 2015 Annual Report

Editor

Lynne Johnson Managing Editor

Nancy Cannuli

Contributing Editors Mary Lou Delaney Joann Donatiello Joyce Lopuh Kristen Matlofsky Kris McDonald Suzan Rizzo Designed by Kristen Matlofsky

… Thank you to all other OPR staff members who contributed.

www.opr.princeton.edu