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Terrorist Threat Assessments in the Netherlands Communicating Terrorism: terrorist threat assessments in the Netherlands Thesis by Kay van der Ven 1579010 MSc Crisis and Security Management Leiden University, Faculty of Governance and Global Affairs Centre for Terrorism and Counterterrorism Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Edwin Bakker Second reader: Dr. Alastair Reed January 2016 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. This thesis, the research conducted and all related effort could not have been completed without the support of numerous persons, for whom I would like to express my utmost gratitude. First and foremost I would like to thank my family for their support, particularly to them a simple acknowledgement does not do justice to their part in this process. Valerie, I truly admire the way in which you managed to cope with me for so many years and especially your support during the final phase. Also, I like to take this opportunity to thank my friends and fellow students Brian, Lars and Roan for their valuable comments, remarks and engagement throughout this process. Most importantly, sharing the pressure made my life so much easier. A special acknowledgement goes to Prof. Dr. Edwin Bakker, who besides being my supervisor provided me the opportunity to engage in the thesis topic not only theoretically, but also professionally. Working at the Centre for Terrorism and Counterterrorism has been the most desirable environment for finalizing my work and served as an inspiring atmosphere. Last but not least I thank MA Jeanine de Roy van Zuijdewijn for our endless debates on the topic. This thesis would not be the complete piece of work it is without the guidance of my supervisor, proof readers, critics and motivators. I am sincerely grateful, Kay van der Ven 2 ABBREVIATIONS. AIVD – the General Intelligence and Security Service of the Netherlands CBRN - Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear CTC – European Union Counter-terrorism Coordinator DSI - Special Intervention Service DTN – Terrorist Threat Assessment Netherlands EU – European Union IND – Immigration and Naturalisation Service IS – Islamic State ISAF –The International Security Assistance Force ISIL – Islamic State in Iraq ISIS - Islamic State of Iraq and Syria KLPD – National Police of the Netherlands MIVD – Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service NATO – North Atlantic Treaty Organization NCTV – The National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism NFI - The Netherlands Forensic Institute S4H - Sharia for Holland UN – United Nations UNSC - UN Security Council JaN – Jabat al Nusra RIV - Council for the Intelligence and Security Services 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS. Acknowledgements. ..................................................................................................... 2 Abbreviations. .............................................................................................................. 3 Abstract. ........................................................................................................................ 6 1. Introduction. ......................................................................................................... 7 2. Theoretical Framework. .................................................................................... 12 2.1 Concept of (national) Security........................................................................................ 12 2.2 Baldwin & security problematique................................................................................. 13 3. Methodology ....................................................................................................... 16 3.1 mixed methods................................................................................................................ 17 3.2 Likert scale. .................................................................................................................... 17 3.3 Quantitative analysis. ..................................................................................................... 18 3.4 Limitations...................................................................................................................... 19 3.5 Operationalization of Baldwin’s framework. ................................................................. 19 3.6 Definitions. ..................................................................................................................... 22 4. DTN ..................................................................................................................... 26 4.1 Why a terrorist threat assessment Netherlands? ............................................................. 26 4.2 Scope. ............................................................................................................................. 28 4.3 Parties involved. ............................................................................................................. 30 4.4 For whom? ...................................................................................................................... 31 4.5 Communicating threats................................................................................................... 32 5. Analysis. .............................................................................................................. 33 Ten years DTN. .................................................................................................................... 33 2005 (DTN 1-2): Threat level; Substantial........................................................................... 33 2006 (DTN 3 – 7) Threat level; Substantial. ........................................................................ 37 2007 (DTN 8 – 11) Threat level; Limited. ........................................................................... 40 2008 (DTN 12 – 15) Threat level; Substantial. .................................................................... 43 2009 (DTN 16 – 19) Threat level; Limited and Substantial................................................. 47 2010 (DTN 20 – 23) Threat level; Limited. ......................................................................... 49 2011 (DTN 24-27) Threat level; Limited. ............................................................................ 53 2012 (DTN 28-31): Threat level; Limited. ........................................................................... 55 2013 (DTN 32-34): Threat level; Substantial....................................................................... 58 2014 (DTN 35-37): Threat level; Substantial....................................................................... 60 2015 (DTN 38-40): Threat level; Substantial....................................................................... 63 4.5 Quantitative findings. ..................................................................................................... 66 6. Conclusion and reflection .................................................................................. 71 4 5. 1 General impression ........................................................................................................ 71 5.2 Specification of the security problematique ................................................................... 74 5.3 How did this develop over time? .................................................................................... 76 5.4 Reflection ....................................................................................................................... 77 6. Bibliography........................................................................................................... 79 5 ABSTRACT. This thesis explorers the content of ten years terrorist threat assessments Netherlands (DTN) of the National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV) through qualitative observations and by conducting a quantitative analysis. The DTNs increasingly have become the principal tool of communicating the state of affairs concerning terrorism to the public. The assessments provide developments on (inter)national events, assessed to be of relevance to the Netherlands, combined with an attached threat level, being: ‘minimal’, ‘limited’, ‘substantial ‘or ‘critical’. In order to research how the assessments evolved since their establishment in May 2005, how this developed over time and to what extent the security problematique is specified, the theoretical framework of Baldwin (1997) has been adopted and operationalized. The systematic analysis through the framework focussed on the seven aspects necessary to specification of the security problematique according to Baldwin (1997). First and foremost; for whom is the security intended? Secondly, what values does it aim to protect? Third, measuring security as a matter of degree, how much security is needed? Fourth, from what threats? Fifth, by what means is security pursued? Sixth, at what costs is security pursued? And finally, what is the time period of the security situation at hand? The results show that for most of these criteria, the level of specification in the DTNs is met. The findings determine an extensive international focus reaching far beyond just the Netherlands, combined with numerous (international) threats, dominated by jihadism. Furthermore, shifts in specification concerning costs, how much security and means are noticed. Societal values are mentioned consistently, but not specified extensively as the DTNs mention societal values mainly in terms of ‘threatened by’ radicalization and polarization. Overall, geographical shifts in threats are identified. However the
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