2017 3rd International Symposium on Mechatronics and Industrial Informatics (ISMII 2017) ISBN: 978-1-60595-501-8

Analysis of Circulation Industry and Economic Development in Heyuan City Ying-xia YE He Yuan Polytechnic, He Yuan, , email: [email protected]

Keywords: Heyuan city; circulation industry; economic development; regression analysis

Abstracts: Regional economic development is closely related to the development of the circulation industry. From the perspective of Heyuan development scale, circulation density, infrastructure, and the contribution of circulation industry to GDP, the evaluation index of comprehensive development of circulation industry in Heyuan is constructed in this paper, The regression model analysis was carried out by using the related data of Heyuan's circulation industry for13 years during 2004-2016. The result shows: The development trend of Heyuan's circulation industry is good, and the circulation industry has a significant impact on the regional economy of Heyuan.

1. Introduction Heyuan city is located in the northeast of Guangdong province. It is an excellent tourist city in China and a less developed city in Guangdong Province. During the "12th Five-Year" period, Heyuan actively carried out the strategy of undertaking the industry transfer of the Delta, which effectively promoted the economic and social development of Heyuan. Since the start of “13th Five-Year”, , , , , Heyuan and 5 cities proposed the plan for the integration of the deep 3+2 economic circle inShenzhen, Huizhou and Dongguan. In order to achieve the integrated development of urban agglomerations, it is necessary to further strengthen the interconnection and transportation of the transportation infrastructure in these areas, so that logistics, people flow, information flow and capital flow can be fully mobile. Regional or national strategic plans have brought opportunities and challenges for the development of Heyuan's circulation industry such as The Belt and Road construction, the construction of and Macao Bay Area.

2. Development evaluation index of circulation industry in Heyuan Evaluation index of circulation industry.After considering the development scale of Heyuan circulation industry, the circulation density, the logistics infrastructure, the contribution of the circulation industry to the economy and the radiation ability of the circulation industry to the import and export, etc., the author sets up 14 evaluation indexes of circulation development in Heyuan. See table 1. for details. Table 1. Development evaluation index of circulation industry in Heyuan. Index Unit

Total retail sales of consumer goods X1 0.1 billion per capita GDP X2 Yuan / person The circulation of value added X3 0.1 billion The circulation of investment in fixed assets X4 0.1 billion per capita of total retail sales of consumer goods X5 10 thousand / person per capita density of the circulation of value added X6 10 thousand / person quantity of shipments X7 10 thousand tons mileage in highway X8 kilometre (km.)

167 Vehicle ownership X9 10 thousand vehicles The number of circulation enterprises X10 10 thousand The number of circulation employees X11 person The contribution rate of circulation industry to economy X12 % The economic pull rate of circulation industry X13 % total export-import volume X14 0.1 billion This paper inquires into the national economic and social development statistics communique of Heyuan for 2004-2016 years as well as yearbook of 2004-2016 years in Heyuan, the influence of the output value of Heyuan's circulation industry on GDP is analyzed. See Table 2 for details. Table 2. List of related indicators about the circulation industry and GDP in Heyuan during 2004 -2016. The circulation The contribution rate of The economic pull rate Gross Regional year industry (0.1 circulation industry to of circulation industry Product (0.1 billion) billion) economy（%） （%） 2004 82.34 173.06 47.58 —— 2005 101.84 200.13 50.89 7.96 2006 117.65 263.99 44.57 12.16 2007 142.33 332.34 42.83 8.86 2008 167.37 394.13 42.46 4.5 2009 190.83 416.95 45.77 4.9 2010 221.67 477.19 46.45 6.27 2011 261.78 571.94 45.77 5.99 2012 354.5 615.26 57.62 6.68 2013 404.72 680.33 59.49 7.14 2014 458.05 758.95 60.35 6.58 2015 716.87 810.08 88.49 7.17 2016 800.45 898.72 89.06 7.66 Among them, the circulation rate of economic contribution = circulation industry output value / gdp; Circulation industry's economic pull rate = regional gross product growth rate * circulation industry's contribution rate to economy As can be seen from the table, Heyuan's circulation industry and GDP remain positive trend of growth. The ratio of the contribution of the circulation sector to the economy has been increasing. The circulation industry has maintained an overall trend of economic growth. The relationship between circulation and GDP.In order to further clarify the relationship between the development of circulation industry and regional economy in Heyuan, we establish a regression model of circulation industry and GDP in Heyuan, Using SPSS20.0 regression analysis method, we can get Table 3, table 4 and table 5. Table 3. Model summary. Error of Change statistics Adjust the Model R R side standard R side Sig. F Durbin-Watson R side F change df1 df2 estimate change changes 1 .937a .878 .867 86.32885 .878 79.135 1 11 .000 .632

a. Predictive variables: (constant), circulation (100 million yuan). b. Dependent variable: regional GDP (100 million yuan) Table 4. Residual analysis. Model Quadratic sum df Mean square F Sig. Recurrence 589764.239 1 589764.239 79.135 .000b 1 Residual 81979.371 11 7452.670 Amount to 671743.609 12 a. Dependent variable: regional GDP (100 million yuan) b. Predictive variables: (constant), circulation (100 million yuan).

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Table 5. Coefficient. Unstandardized Standardized 95% confidence coefficients estimates interval of B Model t Sig. Standard lower superior B trial version error limit limit (constant) 211.182 40.991 5.152 .000 120.960 301.403

1 The circulation industry (100 .957 .108 .937 8.896 .000 .720 1.194 million yuan)

a. Dependent variable: regional GDP (100 million yuan) As shown in table 3, is 0.878，adjusted for 0.867. It shows that the fitting between model and data is higher; In table 4, F=79.135，Sig=0.000，lower than 0.01, which can significantly reject the hypothesis that the overall regression coefficient is 0; In table 5, t=8.896, Sig=0.000, lower than 0.01, The results of T show that the regression equation is effective, with regression equation for: GDP=211.182+0.957LT， =0.887 The regression results show that there is a direct and positive relationship between the circulation industry of Heyuan (LT) and the gross domestic product of Heyuan area. The output value of Heyuan area's circulation industry will increase by 0.957 units per unit increase of 1 units in Heyuan city. Therefore, it is of vital importance to effectively enhance the development of the circulation industry in Heyuan city for the rapid economic development in Heyuan area. Three. Conclusions and implications

3. Conclusions This paper constructs the comprehensive evaluation index system of circulation industry in Heyuan, and draws the conclusion by using the related data: the circulation and GDP have maintained a steady growth trend in Heyuan city. Although the circulation industry has a small fluctuation to the economic contribution rate and the circulation stimulating economy ratio, it keeps the growth tendency in general, and keeps the linear relation with the same direction. The linear regression relationship between circulation and regional economy of Heyuan was established by using SPSS software, There is a very high positive linear relationship between the circulation of Heyuan and gdp. Circulation is an important driving force for regional economic growth in Heyuan. The government's priority is to speed up the development of the circulation industry and even promote the development of Heyuan's economy. Government departments should intensify efforts to support the circulation through the relevant policies, expand and perfect the construction of Heyuan logistics infrastructure, upgrading transportation systems, warehousing, distribution centers, etc., Promote the interconnection of Heyuan city, the city and Guangdong Bay Area, so as to enhance the vitality of the circulation industry in Heyuan, further play the leading role of circulation industry on economic development.

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