Greater Bay Area Logistics Markets and Opportunities Colliers Radar Logistics | Industrial Services | South China | 29 May 2020
COLLIERS RADAR LOGISTICS | INDUSTRIAL SERVICES | SOUTH CHINA | 29 MAY 2020
Rosanna Tang Head of Research | Hong Kong SAR and Southern China +852 2822 0514 [email protected]
Jay Zhong Senior Analyst | Research | Guangzhou +86 20 3819 3851 [email protected]
Yifan Yu Assistant Manager | Research | Shenzhen +86 755 8825 8668 [email protected]
Justin Yi Senior Analyst | Research | Shenzhen +86 755 8825 8600 [email protected]
GREATER BAY AREA LOGISTICS MARKETS AND OPPORTUNITIES COLLIERS RADAR LOGISTICS | INDUSTRIAL SERVICES | SOUTH CHINA | 29 MAY 2020
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
INSIGHTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 3
MAP OF GBA LOGISTICS MARKETS AND RECOMMENDED CITIES 4
MAP OF GBA TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM 5
LOGISTICS INDUSTRY SUPPLY AND DEMAND 6
NEW GROWTH POTENTIAL AREA IN GBA LOGISTICS 7
GBA LOGISTICS CLUSTER – ZHUHAI-ZHONGSHAN-JIANGMEN 8
GBA LOGISTICS CLUSTER – SHENZHEN-DONGGUAN-HUIZHOU 10
GBA LOGISTICS CLUSTER – GUANGZHOU-FOSHAN-ZHAOQING 12
2 COLLIERS RADAR LOGISTICS | INDUSTRIAL SERVICES | SOUTH CHINA | 29 MAY 2020
Insights & Recommendations RECOMMENDED CITIES This report identifies three logistics Zhuhai Zhongshan Jiangmen clusters from the mainland Greater Bay The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau We expect Zhongshan will be The manufacturing sector is Area (GBA)* cities and among these Bridge Zhuhai strengthens the a logistics hub with the now the largest contributor clusters highlights five recommended marine and logistics completion of the Shenzhen- to Jiangmen’s overall GDP. logistics cities for occupiers and investors. integration with Hong Kong Zhongshan Bridge, planned The government aims to build the city into a coastal logistics Zhuhai-Zhongshan-Jiangmen: and Macau. for 2024, connecting the east and west banks of the Peral center and West Guangdong’s > Zhuhai-Zhongshan-Jiangmen’s existing River. key logistics hub. Grade A warehouse stock is relatively low compared to other clusters, yet Huizhou Zhaoqing the new supply is planned to double in next three years, providing more new Huizhou’s industrial economy and proximity Located in the central-west part of logistics facilities with competitive rent to Shenzhen established itself as one of the Guangdong, Zhaoqing acts as a gateway major logistics centers in the GBA. Its lower connecting the Great Bay Area (GBA) to amid rapid economic growth in the rent and labor cost also promoted itself as a China’s south-west region and an organic local markets. promising alternative to other cities. produce transaction hub for the GBA. Shenzhen-Dongguan-Huizhou: From 2014 to 2018, the compound growth rate of freight turnover reached about 20% in the Greater > The limited logistics land and future Bay Area mainland cities (GBA)*, reflecting the robust expansion and hence demand for the logistics supply, coupled with the relative high sector1. In 2018, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of transport, warehousing, and postal service in the occupancy costs of Grade A GBA recorded almost USD50 billion. We believe that under the blueprint of future development and warehouses in Shenzhen created industrial expansion in the GBA, property demand for logistics sectors should further expand spillover demand, accelerating the throughout the development phase over the next decade. warehouse development of Since the announcement of the GBA development plan in February 2019, the logistics sector have been neighboring emerging cities, especially receiving increasing interests from both domestic and foreign investors and businesses who aim to Huizhou. capture the GBA opportunities. In fact, according to the recently published Colliers report Hong Kong Investor Survey 2019, the logistics sector is regarded as the most attractive asset type among the GBA Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing: mainland cities, with 38% of the Hong-Kong based investors indicated as their investment priority. > Guangzhou, the most populous city in As of Q1 2020, there are 7.7 million sq meters (83.3 million sq feet) of existing Grade A logistics Guangdong, has a strong economic facilities in the GBA, and the total stock is expected to increase by 32% to 10.2 million sq meters (109.8 connection with Foshan. The urban million sq feet) in the next three years (by 2022), which could still be lagging the expected 60% growth integration of these two cities has of e-commerce2 during the same period. benefitted the logistics development of Source: 1 Guangdong Statistical Yearbook, 2 Assuming the same 16.5% YOY China’s e-commerce growth rate (2019) to for the next three years. *Note: The GBA in this report only refer to the nine mainland cities in the Greater Bay Area, excluding the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region the emerging market in Zhaoqing. and Macau Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China. 3 COLLIERS RADAR LOGISTICS | INDUSTRIAL SERVICES | SOUTH CHINA | 29 MAY 2020
MAP OF GBA LOGISTICS MARKETS AND RECOMMENDED CITIES
Zhaoqing* Foshan Guangzhou * Recommended Cities
Rent (RMB/ sqm/ day) 0.73 Rent (RMB/ sqm/ day) 1.02 Rent (RMB/ sqm/ day) 1.25
Stock (sqm) 175,300 Stock (sqm) 1,971,200 Stock (sqm) 1,897,700
New Supply (sqm) 94,000 New Supply(sqm) 365,500 New Supply(sqm) 591,500 Huizhou*
Rent (RMB/ sqm/ day) 1.14
Stock (sqm) 803,200
Zhaoqing * New Supply (sqm) 197,200
Guangzhou
Zhongshan* Dongguan Huizhou * Rent (RMB/ sqm/ day) 1.17 Foshan Rent (RMB/ sqm/ day) 1.3 Stock (sqm) Stock (sqm) 162,000 Dongguan 1,615,400 New Supply (sqm) New Supply (sqm) 180,000 953,900 Shenzhen Shenzhen Jiangmen* Zhongshan * Rent (RMB/ sqm/ day) 1.51 Rent (RMB/ sqm/ day) 0.89 Jiangmen * Stock (sqm) 990,900 Stock (sqm) 126,800 Zhuhai * New Supply (sqm) 109,000 New Supply (sqm) 207,800
Zhuhai*
New Supply (sqm) 94,000 Grade A warehouse criteria:
Zoning: Fire-proof Level: Ceiling height: Bearing capacity: Raised platform: Structure: Industrial, Warehouse Applicable to C2 goods over 9 m 3 tons / sq m 7m width, 1.3m height Steel
4 *Recommended city. Note: rent and stock as of Q1 2020. New Supply is from 2020Q2 to 2022. Rent is net effective rent, not including tax. 1 sq metre = 10.76 sq feet. USD1 to RMB7.09 as of May 13 2020 COLLIERS RADAR LOGISTICS | INDUSTRIAL SERVICES | SOUTH CHINA | 29 MAY 2020
MAP OF GBA TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
Nansha Port under expansion
Xinsha Port under expansion
Airport
Railway under construction
1 Nansha Port Freight Railway Zhaoqing S16 Guangzhou Northeast Freight 2 Guangzhou Railway Expressway under construction 2
Huizhou S26 Zhongshan-Kaiping Expressway S18 Foshan Guangzhou-Zhongshan-Jiangmen S20 Expressway Dongguan S45 S6 S45 Foshan-Jiangmen Expressway 1 Foshan-Qingyuan- S16 Conghua Expressway S86 S20 G25 Shenzhen S18 Huadu-Dongguan Expressway Jiangmen Zhongshan S26 S6 Heyuan-Dongguan-Huizhou Expressway
S86 Shenzhen Outer Beltway Zhuhai
G25 Shenzhen-Zhongshan Bridge
Note: S: Province expressway G: National expressway
Source: Colliers International, Guangdong’s Major Projects in 2019 5 COLLIERS RADAR LOGISTICS | INDUSTRIAL SERVICES | SOUTH CHINA | 29 MAY 2020
LOGISTICS SUPPLY AND DEMAND Expressway and highway density in nine mainland GBA cites in 2018 meters per sq kilometer meters per sq kilometer
Better connectivity with the growth of transportation 250 2,500 Transportation system is one of the key elements influencing logistics sectors, which has also been emphasized in the GBA Outline Development Plan. The 200 2,000 GBA has implemented different measures to provide the hardware to improve the connectivity within the region and strengthen the supply chain. 150 1,500 In the GBA three-year action plan1, the government aims to build up the 100 1,000 expressway network over 5,000 kilometers (3,107 miles) by 2020, which is to compare to the 3,700 kilometers (2,299 miles) at the end of 20172. Eight expressways are under construction to enhance the connectivity within the 50 500 GBA cities3. The government is also working on the GBA Railway Network Planning (2018-2035) to improve the railway system. Meanwhile, the GBA 0 0 plans to reach 62 million TEUs of annual container throughput by 2020, which is to compare with the 54 million recorded in 20184.
Supply-and-demand dynamics Expressway Density (LHS) Highway Density (RHS) Considering the logistic market in the GBA continues to expand along with the Source: Colliers International, Guangdong’s Major Projects in 2019, The statistics bureau of the relevant GBA cities region’s development, an adequate land supply for warehouses is essential to “Tmall Double 11 Promotion Day” , 2009-2019 provide the hardware for the growth. By 2022, there are about 2.5 million sq meters (26.5 million sq feet) of new supply planned for the GBA market, RMB100 Million Piece 100 Million increasing 32% from current stock of 7.7 million sq meters (83.3 million sq 3,000 14 feet). On the demand side, e-commerce has been the primary user of logistics 12 warehouse, their market scale has grown substantially for the last decade, 2,500 10 exemplified by the “Tmall Double 11 Promotion Day”, which recorded a 26.3% 2,000 CAGR* for its sales between 2017-19. The quarantine in Q1 2020 also 8 1,500 stimulated the development of E-commerce live streaming, over 4 million 6 sessions in Q1. SF Express, the second largest courier in China also benefited 1,000 4 from E-commerce, increased 39%5 YOY in revenue in Q1, showing the great demand of logistics market. 500 2 In 2019, China’s online retail sales went up 16.5% YOY6 to RMB10.6 trillion 0 0 (USD1.5 trillion).We believe if China’s e-commerce economy can maintain the 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 same growth rate for the next three years, its market transaction volume Double 11 Sales Volume (LHS) Double 11 Package Volume (RHS) could grow by another 60% by 2022, which should surpass the new supply Source: Colliers International, Alibaba growth (32%) during the same period, generating substantial and solid Source: 1 GBA three-year action plan 2,4 Guangdong Statistical Yearbook3, Guangdong Province Major Projects 2019 demand for the GBA logistics facilities. 5Forbes China 6National Bureau of Statistics* Compound annual growth rate 6 COLLIERS RADAR LOGISTICS | INDUSTRIAL SERVICES | SOUTH CHINA | 29 MAY 2020
Retail sales of consumers goods and Grade A warehouse stocks, NEW GROWTH POTENTIAL AREA GBA logistics clusters comparison RMB100 Million Sq meters Bright prospects of Zhuhai-Zhongshan-Jiangmen 15,000 4,000,000
In 2019, retail sales of consumer goods, one of the key drivers to support 3,000,000 demand for logistics facilities, in Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing reached 10,000 RMB1,268 billion (USD179 billion) and the Grade A warehouse stock was 3.4 2,000,000 5,000 million sq meters (36.6 million sq feet). Shenzhen-Dongguan-Huizhou was 1,000,000 similar with RMB1,017 billion (USD143 billion) in retail sales of consumers - - goods and 3.3 million sq meters (35.5 million sq feet) in Grade A warehouse Guangzhou-Foshan- Shenzhen-Dongguan- Zhuhai-Zhongshan- stock 1. Compared to the other two mature clusters, though the retail sales of Zhaoqing Huizhou Jiangmen consumer goods in Zhuhai-Zhongshan-Jiangmen was only about one-third of Retail Sales of Consumer Goods (LHS) Stock(RHS) the other two clusters, the supply side had a larger gap, only about 8% of Growth of retail sales of consumers goods, 2015-2019 other two clusters, indicating the Grade A warehouse was in short supply. RMB100 Million Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing Meanwhile, the consuming power is growing rapidly in Zhuhai-Zhongshan- CAGR Shenzhen-Dongguan-Huizhou Jiangmen in the past five years with CARG of 7.3%, compared to 4.9% in 2015-2019 15,000 Zhuhai-Zhongshan-Jiangmen Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing and 6.5% in Shenzhen-Dongguan-Huizhou, +4.9% demonstrating a solid and growing demand of logistics space in this cluster.2 10,000 +6.5% Spillover demand benefitted Huizhou and Zhaoqing 5,000 Shenzhen and Guangzhou are the main drivers in logistics demand in their +7.3% own clusters, accounting for 57% and 69% respectively in consuming power in their clusters3.However, the high rents and limited supply in Shenzhen and - Guangzhou keep driving developers and tenants looking for warehouses in 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 cities nearby. Whilst Foshan and Dongguan became the first choices over the Grade A warehouse rent and stock of GBA cities in 2019 last decade, the market stocks in Foshan increased 4.8 times and the rents has RMB/ sq meter/ day risen 38% between 2010 and 2019. The increasing occupancy costs in Foshan Shenzhen 1.6 and Dongguan should direct more spillover demand to Huizhou and Zhaoqing, Dongguan 1.4 Zhongshan to become the next logistics hot spots for its attractive rents and labor force. Huizhou Guangzhou 1.2 Average wage of Rent in 2019 1 Jiangmen fully employed Foshan 4 0.8 workers in 2018 Huizhou 75% of 0.6 Zhaoqing Foshan 2010 Zhuhai-Zhongshan-Jiangmen Huizhou 69% of 1.14RMB/sq Shenzhen 0.4 Shenzhen-Dongguan-Huizhou RMB77,634 Shenzhen meter/ day Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing 0.2 Zhuhai Growth Potential Growth ¥ Zhaoqing 64% of Zhaoqing 58% of 0 RMB71,451 Guangzhou 0.73RMB/sq Guangzhou - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 meter/ day Stock (sq meter) Source: Colliers International * CARG: Compound annual growth rate Source: Colliers International, The statistics bureau of the relevant GBA cities 7 1234 The statistics bureau of the relevant GBA cities COLLIERS RADAR LOGISTICS | INDUSTRIAL SERVICES | SOUTH CHINA | 29 MAY 2020
GBA LOGISTICS CLUSTER – ZHUHAI-ZHONGSHAN-JIANGMEN Recommended cities – Zhuhai, Zhongshan and Jiangmen City Aggregation (Zhuhai, Zhongshan and Jiangmen) Supply and demand • About 208,000 sq meteres (2.2 million sq feet) is planned to be Full Year 2020 QOQ/ YOY / Q1 2020 Forecast End Q1 End 2020 completed in H2 2020. We expect the net absorption in 2020 will be over 143,000 sq meters (1.5 million sq feet), about half of the -3.7% -2.5% market stock due to the growing demand in logistics. Market outlook -1,620 143,000 RMB 1.05 RMB 1.06 • Compared to Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing and Shenzhen- Demand sq m sq m Rent (psm per day) (psm per day) Dongguan-Huizhou, developers can acquire lands in warehouse use easier with more attractive prices in Zhuhai-Zhongshan-Jiangmen. • The overall stock of Zhuhai-Zhongshan-Jiangmen is relatively low, 0.5pps 3.4pps compared to Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing and Shenzhen- Dongguan-Huizhou but the new supply in the next three years is 0 sq m 208,000 planned to be 481,800 sq meters (5.2 million sq feet), double the Supply sq m Vacancy 23.5% 26.4% current stock, showing the rapid momentum of logistics market. Recommended city - Zhuhai • After the completion of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge, Zhuhai New supply of cities (sq meters) becomes an important channel linking Guangdong to Hong Kong and Macau on land, offering opportunities for trade and logistics. 250,000 • With the longest coastline in the GBA, Zhuhai further developed its port industry and port logistics, like launch the third phase of 200,000 terminal project of Gaolan Port 1. 150,000 • There’s no Grade A warehouse in Zhuhai but over 94,000 sq meters (1.0 million sq feet) is planned to be completed in two years in 100,000 Gaolan Port and Hongwan Port. 50,000 Grade A warehouse market Market Stock Q1 2020 Rent City 0 (sq meters) (RMB/ sq meter/ day) 2020-2021 Zhongshan 162,000 1.17 Zhuhai 0 - Zhongshan Jiangmen Zhuhai Jiangmen 126,800 0.89 Overall Market 288,800 1.05 1 http://govt.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201903/14/WS5c8af870498e27e33803a69c.html 8 COLLIERS RADAR LOGISTICS | INDUSTRIAL SERVICES | SOUTH CHINA | 29 MAY 2020
GBA LOGISTICS CLUSTER – ZHUHAI-ZHONGSHAN-JIANGMEN Recommended cities – Zhuhai, Zhongshan and Jiangmen Zhuhai-Zhongshan-Jiangmen Recommended city - Zhongshan • As most of the projects in Zhongshan are Grade B warehouse and self-built warehouse, there are only two existing Grade A non- bonded warehouses of around 162,000 sq meters (1.74 million sq feet), which indicates great potential for the future market. • Average rent for the Grade A non-bonded warehouse is RMB1.17 (USD0.17) per sq meter per day. The rent has been growing and is expected to continue on uptrend as the market getting mature. • In the next three years, about 180,000 sq meters (1.9 million sq Jiangmen feet) of new supply are entering the market. Zhongshan Recommended city - Jiangmen • As the Pearl River West and southeast Guangdong logistics hub, strategic emerging industries like new energy, new materials and green household appliances are all growing rapidly in Jiangmen. Zhuhai • Market supply reached total stock around 126,800 sq meters (1.4 Hongwan Port million sq feet) and the average rent is RMB0.89 (USD0.13) per sq meter per day, about 87% of the average rent in Foshan. As the southeast Guangdong logistics hub and the spillover demand from Foshan and Guangzhou, we forecast the rent in Jiangmen will Gaolan Port continue to grow with 3% YOY in the next three years. Quarterly performance of submarkets (RMB per sq m per day, vacancy in percent) 1.1 60.0% Recommended City 1 40.0% Freight Railway 0.9 20.0% Road 0.8 Boundaries 0.7 0.0% Airport Zhongshan Jiangmen Q1 2020 rent(LHS) Q4 2019 rent(LHS) Q1 2020 vacancy Q4 2019 vacancy Source: Colliers International. Note: FS = Foshan.
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GBA LOGISTICS CLUSTER – SHENZHEN-DONGGUAN-HUIZHOU Recommended city - Huizhou Supply and demand City Aggregation(Shenzhen-Dongguan-Huizhou) • In Q1, some warehouse landlords offered rental concessions to Full Year 2020 QOQ/ YOY / ensure stable occupancy, leading to the rent drop. The vacancy Q1 2020 Forecast End Q1 End 2020 rate increased slightly to 5.2% with negative net absorption of 5,300 sq meters. -4.6% -2.4% Market outlook • Looking beyond 2020, with the level of new supply continuing to -5,300 602,000 RMB 1.33 RMB 1.36 Demand Rent trend down in 2021 and 2022, we believe the vacancy rate will sq m sq m (psm per day) (psm per day) remain tight in the next three years. This shall provide support to the Grade A warehouse rents to stay on the uptrend.
0.1pps -0.1pps Recommended city - Huizhou • Huizhou port and Yantian port have set up Hui-Yan combined port, 0 sq m 625,000 and there is great demand generated from overflow of Yantian Supply sq m Vacancy 5.2% 5.0% port. • The goods from Eastern Guangdong like Heyuan, Chaoshan and Meizhou will be processed by Daya Bay logistics Center and then New supply of cities (sq meters) pulled to the corresponding container terminal according to the shipping route. 700,000 • Huizhou have capacity to meet the needs of cross-border e- 600,000 commerce warehousing, refer to some situation of foreign 500,000 companies needing to set up distribution centers in or around Shenzhen. Huizhou can provide high-end warehousing parks 400,000 facilities for cross-border e-commerce. 300,000 Grade A warehouse market 200,000 Market Stock Q1 2020 Rent City (sq meters) (RMB/ sq meter/ day) 100,000 Dongguan 1,615,400 1.30 0 Huizhou 803,200 1.14 2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 Shenzhen 990,900 1.51 Dongguan Huizhou Shenzhen Overall Market 3,409,500 1.33
10 COLLIERS RADAR LOGISTICS | INDUSTRIAL SERVICES | SOUTH CHINA | 29 MAY 2020
GBA LOGISTICS CLUSTER – SHENZHEN-DONGGUAN-HUIZHOU
Shenzhen-Dongguan-Huizhou Other cities : • Shenzhen: While Shenzhen has been promoted by the government as the “model city”, the future development and modernization process shall boost demand across different high-value chain industries. Rents should continue to grow on the back of the limited warehouse supply in the city. • Longhua District, located in the geographical and urban development center of Shenzhen, has the largest warehouse stock in city. Adjoining to other six districts and Dongguan, Longhua could enjoy the convenient location for efficient logistics goods distribution between Shenzhen and other GBA cities. Huizhou • Dongguan: As a highly industrialized city located between Guangzhou and Shenzhen with extensive highway and railway networks, demand has been strong in Dongguan for its Grade A logistic facilities. • Dongguan East and Dongguan West are recommended for their Dongguan easy access to Guangzhou and Shenzhen with large consumer base. Quarterly performance of submarkets (RMB per sq m per day, vacancy in percent) 2 14.0% Shenzhen 12.0% Huizhou Port 1.5 10.0% 8.0% Yantian Port 1 6.0% 0.5 4.0% Recommended City 2.0% 0 0.0% Freight Railway
Road
Boundaries
Airport Huizhou Submarket Shenzhen Submarket Dongguan Submarket Q1 2020 Rent(LHS) Q4 2019 Rent(LHS) Q1 2020 Vacancy(RHS) Q4 2019 Vacancy(RHS) Source: Colliers International.
11 COLLIERS RADAR LOGISTICS | INDUSTRIAL SERVICES | SOUTH CHINA | 29 MAY 2020
GBA LOGISTICS CLUSTER – GUANGZHOU-FOSHAN-ZHAOQING Recommended city - Zhaoqing Supply and demand City Aggregation(Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing) • With new supply in emerging submarkets and the pre-leasing Full Year 2020 QOQ/ YOY / agreements in Q4 2019, the net absorption increased four times Q1 2020 Forecast End Q1 End 2020 during Q1 2020 on a QOQ base to 137,000 square meters (1.5 -0.6% 0.1% million square feet) and the rent decreased 0.6% QOQ to RMB1.12 (USD0.16) psm per day. Market outlook 137,000 349,000 RMB 1.12 RMB 1.13 • We forecast that new supply will continue to push up the vacancy Demand sq m sq m Rent (psm per day) (psm per day) rate in 2020 due to over 295,800 sq meter (3.2 million sq feet) and 182,700 sq meter (2.0 million sq feet) of new supply are scheduled to be delivered in GZ and FS market respectively during Q2-Q4 8.2pps 12.5pps 2020, around 1.5 times of the total new supply in 2019. • We expect rents to recover by the end of 2020 due to the strong 505,000 983,900 demand from e-commerce and food storage facility. Supply sq m sq m Vacancy 15.6% 19.9% Recommended city - Zhaoqing • As a city that undertakes the spillover demands from Guangzhou New supply of cities (sq meters) and Foshan market, Zhaoqing has gained more attention from logistics developers like GLP and CNLP. It has become an 500,000 increasingly popular option for both developers and tenants, given higher costs in Guangzhou and Foshan. 400,000 • There are two Grade A non-bonded warehouses add up to 175,300 sq meters (1.9 million sq feet), with an upcoming supply of 94,000 300,000 sq meters (1 million sq feet) completed in the year 2021.
200,000 Grade A warehouse market Market Stock Q1 2020 Rent City 100,000 (sq meters) (RMB/ sq meter/ day) Guangzhou 1,897,700 1.25 - Foshan 1,971,200 1.02 2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 Zhaoqing 175,300 0.73 Guangzhou Foshan Zhaoqing Overall Market 4,044,200 1.12
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GBA LOGISTICS CLUSTER – GUANGZHOU-FOSHAN-ZHAOQING
Other cities : Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing • Guangzhou: Owning one of top 10 container ports1 in the world, Guangzhou has been seeing strong and promising demand in its logistics market. This is also on the back of the edges in city’s long- held strong position and growth in trading and industry. • With the highest rent and largest market stock among all submarkets in Guangzhou, Huangpu remains the current hotspot for the city regarding the industrial agglomeration formed in the past decade. While we believe Nansha and Huadu are very likely to be the up-and-coming submarkets due to the accessibility (port and Zhaoqing airport) and the relatively lower land price. • Foshan: As the regional distribution center for western Pearl River Delta, we believe Foshan will continue thriving in its manufacturing industry, which will underpin the logistics demand for the city. Guangzhou • We believe the new supply in Foshan North could draw for more leasing activity, as the large-scale occupiers are keen to take up bulk area for operation, making the area to become a competitive submarket in the city. Foshan Quarterly performance of submarkets (RMB per sq m per day, vacancy in percent) 1.6 35.0% 1.4 30.0% 1.2 25.0% 1 20.0% 0.8 15.0% Recommended City 0.6 0.4 10.0% Freight Railway 0.2 N/A 5.0% 0 0.0% Road
Boundaries
Airport Zhaoqing Guangzhou Submarket Foshan Submarket Q4 2019 rent（LHS) Q1 2020 rent(LHS) Q4 2019 vacancy(RHS) Q1 2020 vacancy(RHS) Source: Colliers International. Note: FS = Foshan. 1 Hong Kong SAR Marine Department
13 Primary Authors: For further information, please contact:
Guangzhou: Alan Fung Managing Director | Southern China Jay Zhong +86 20 3819 3998 Senior Analyst | Research | Guangzhou [email protected] +86 20 3819 3851 [email protected] Ray Deng Director | Industrial Services | Guangzhou Shenzhen: +86 20 3819 3834 [email protected] Yifan Yu Assistant Manager | Research | Shenzhen Ryan Chan +86 755 8825 8668 Director | Industrial Services | Shenzhen [email protected] +86 755 8825 8626 [email protected] Justin Yi Senior Analyst | Research | Shenzhen Rosanna Tang +86 755 8825 8600 Head of Research | Research | Hong Kong SAR & Southern China [email protected] +852 2822 0514 [email protected]
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