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Conflicts • Lessons for Ukraine

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Conflicts • Lessons for Ukraine Issue 3(9), 2017 LESSONS ULSTER CYPRUS VIOLENCE THIRD PARTIES PEACE MEDIATION PEACEKEEPING KOSOVO RESOLUTION FROZENPROTRACTED BALKANS CONFLIC T CEASEFIRE LESSONS TRANSNISTRIA FROTHEN PEACE RECONCILIATION BOSNIA RESOLUTION UKRAINE VIOLENCE WAR DONBAS MEDIATION FROZEN UA: Ukraine Analytica · 3 (9), 2017 • PROTRACTED CONFLICTS • LESSONS FOR UKRAINE 1 BOARD OF ADVISERS Dr. Dimitar Bechev (Bulgaria, Director of the European Policy Institute) Issue 3 (9), 2017 Dr. Iulian Chifu Analysis and Early Warning Center) (Romania, Director of the Conflict Protracted Conflicts H.E., Dr. Sergiy Korsunsky (Ukraine, Director of the Diplomatic Academy under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine) Editors Dr. Igor Koval (Ukraine, Rector of Odessa National Dr. Hanna Shelest University by I.I. Mechnikov) Dr. Mykola Kapitonenko Dr. Sergey Minasyan (Armenia, Deputy Director at the Caucasus Institute) Publisher: Published by NGO “Promotion of Intercultural Marcel Rothig (Germany, Director of the Cooperation” (Ukraine), Centre of International Representation of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Romania) of the Representation of the Friedrich Ebert Studies (Ukraine), with the financial support Foundation in Ukraine, and the Black Sea Trust. James Nixey (United Kingdom, Head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, the UA: Ukraine Analytica Royal Institute of International Affairs) analytical journal in English on International is the first Ukrainian Relations, Politics and Economics. The journal Dr. Róbert Ondrejcsák (Slovakia, State Secretary, is aimed for experts, diplomats, academics, Ministry of Defence) students interested in the international relations and Ukraine in particular. H.E., Dr. Oleg Shamshur (Ukraine, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to Contacts: France) website: http://ukraine-analytica.org/ e-mail: [email protected] Dr. Stephan De Spiegeleire (The Netherlands, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ Director Defence Transformation at The Hague ukraineanalytica Center for Strategic Studies) Twitter: https://twitter.com/UA_Analytica Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze (Ukraine, Vice- The views and opinions expressed in Prime Minister on European and Euroatlantic articles are those of the authors and do not Integration of Ukraine) Analytica, its editors, Board of Advisors or Dr. Dimitris Triantaphyllou (Greece, Director of necessarily reflect the position of UA: Ukraine donors. the Center for International and European Studies, Kadir Has University (Turkey)) ISSN 2518-7481 500 copies Dr. Asle Toje (Norway, Research Director at the Norwegian Nobel Institute) UA: Ukraine Analytica · 3 (9), 2017 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS OUR MAIN TASK: TO SURVIVE THIS WAR 3 Interview with Director of the National Institute for Strategic Studies Dr. Horbulin THE “FIRST HYBRID”: THE TRANSNISTRIAN CONFLICT IN THE CONTEXT OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT 7 Artem Fylypenko THE SOURCES OF SUSTAINABILITY OF THE TRANSNISTRIAN DE FACTO STATE 14 Ruslan Kermach PROTRACTED CONFLICTS’ RESOLUTION: LESSONS OF THE GREECE-TURKEY CONFLICT FOR THE UKRAINE-RUSSIA CASE 23 Nadiia Koval CYPRUS CONFLICT IN THE CONTEXT OF INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPING EXPERIENCE: LESSONS FOR UKRAINE 31 Mykola Zamikula THE NORTHERN IRELAND PEACE PROCESS: LESSONS FOR UKRAINE? 39 Donnacha Ó Beacháin RELEVANCE OF THE ULSTER MODEL IN RESOLVING THE UKRAINIAN CONFLICT 50 Abdullah Al Yusuf CONFLICTS IN THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA AND THEIR LESSONS FOR UKRAINE 58 Mariya Heletiy POST-CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION IN THE BALKANS. LESSONS TO BE LEARNT FOR UKRAINE 67 Miruna Troncotă ACCESS TO INFORMATION: THE “ACHILLES’ HEEL” OF REINTEGRATION PROGRAMMES 77 Lesia Vasylenko 2 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 3 (9), 2017 OUR MAIN TASK: TO SURVIVE THIS WAR Interview with Director of the National Institute for Strategic Studies Dr. Volodymyr Horbulin What, In Your Opinion, Do “Frozen” Now, prerequisites for multilateral diplomatic Conflicts in the Post-Soviet Space Have dialogue among the post-Soviet states are in Common? brewing, which aims to support peace and security in the post-Soviet territories. Negotiations on Donbas and Crimea may have become the consequence of exacerbating become the beginning of a wider regional ethnic“Frozen” and conflicts linguistic in tensions the post-Soviet with the crucialspace negotiation process, which would cover role of the Russian Federation in it. Russian the whole post-Soviet space and would be held in the form of international conference. further occupation of disputed territories wasmilitary legitimized presence under in theconflict pretext zones of theseand Negotiations on Donbas and Crimea may become the beenconflicts’ strengthening, resolution. Atas thewell same as the time, process Russian of «beginning of a wider regional Russianeconomic citizenship influence grantingon these was territories established. has negotiation process, which would Afterwards, unrecognized states, created as a cover the whole post-Soviet space result of “freezing” (Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria), have become the zones of “controlled chaos” whereby Moscow has got leverage over domestic situation in countries embarked on the path of democratic transition. Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine, being victims of the Russian aggression, have the full right After 2014 – the year of Crimea annexation to launch such a process, and they have and occupation of a part of Donbas, the diplomatic opportunities to do it. Russian Federation has continued the transformation of the post-Soviet space into How Long Do You Think the Conflict in Eastern Ukraine Will Last? zone,a regional threatening conflict zone,global which peace is and dangerously security. Ukraine remains a priority of the Russian Thatmerging is whywith resolutionthe Middle Eastof the regional Crimean conflict and foreign policy. The Kremlin spent Donbas problems, which did not have ethnic considerable resources on pursuing a “hybrid or linguistic preconditions, became closely war” against our state. intertwined with the problems of Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Nagorno- The Russian government does not abandon hope for success of the “long game” and each other and have a common source – the expects to reach its aim to establish a proxy imperialKarabakh. nature All these of Russia conflicts considering are related itself to a government in Ukraine in several years. To this regional hegemon. end, financing of pro-Russian political forces, UA: Ukraine Analytica · 3 (9), 2017 3 support for pro-Russian non-governmental military. That is why the only way out of the bodies, certain experts, and humanitarian stalemate for Russia is a new escalation or, projects, etc. are being enhanced. at least, a threat to do it. It does not matter whether the threat is real or is just a way to induce us to “cooperation” by this means. turbulence in all spheres of the Ukrainian life.At this One stage, of them the isKremlin’s the international aim is to spherecreate Meanwhile Russia keeps seeking any (by means of “reconciliation plans”), equivalent of the “Helsinki Final Act 2.0”. another – economic (through increasing The expectations of the Russian government the complexity of economic relations within to make a “big deal” with Western states Ukraine), the next one is the political realm do not seem to be met. Therefore, in the (agitation for re-elections at all levels). There short term, confrontation is likely to be are plenty of such spheres. We manage to continued. tackle a lot of these challenges. But not all of them. And this is that very problem which Can “Freezing” of the Conflict has not been solved within the security in Donbas Be Considered as an and defence sector reform. Although our Alternative Option to Its Solution? Is Western partners have actively helped us It Beneficial for Ukraine? during these years, saying we do not have problem areas would be a big exaggeration. advantageous, primarily, for Russia. Its essence“Freezing” lies of in thethe conflictfact that in the Donbas districts is the so-called “DPR” and “LPR”, will “Freezing” of the conflict in that suffered from the conflict the most, Donbas is advantageous, remain a “burden” for Ukraine. Under this «primarily, for Russia scenario, economic relations between these territories and the rest of Ukraine should be restored, and hence Ukraine will have to take the responsibility for economic recovery of The war in Donbas should be considered the destroyed areas of Donbas. Meanwhile, through this lens. The current state of the a proxy regime controlled by Russia will de facto operate in Donbas. It will try to does not need this region as a part of Russia, conflict in the east proves that the Kremlin policy by pursuing interests of another state. weaken Ukraine. Attempts to arrive at a influence Ukrainian foreign and domestic politicaland in fact, solution the conflict face Russia remains blocking a way any to In case of implementation of this scenario, initiative to promote rapid reintegration Ukraine will obviously slow down on its way of this region into our state. The Kremlin to Europe, get a source of political instability as well as economic load represented by the “damaged” dependent regions. We should contradictions,is interested in establishmentthe creation of of a specifica false identity“conflict intrap” the uncontrolled– consolidation territories, of existing and smoulder, destabilizing the situation by the maximal involvement of the population threatnot expect of return a quiet to its life, active as thephase. conflict will in the cooperation with the occupation
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