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Alternatives for Freight-Rail Expansion to Reduce Seasonal Passenger-Rail Demand by Lingling Li

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Alternatives for Freight-Rail Expansion to Reduce Seasonal Passenger-Rail Demand by Lingling Li Balancing China’s Seasonal Intercity Travel Demand: Alternatives for Freight-Rail Expansion to Reduce Seasonal Passenger-Rail Demand By Lingling Li Submitted to the Urban Planning program, and the Graduate Faculty of the University of Kansas in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Urban Planning. ________________________________ Anne Dunning, Ph.D., Chair ________________________________ Bonnie Johnson, Ph.D. ________________________________ Thomas E. Mulinazzi, Ph.D. Date Defended: November 25, 2013 ii The Thesis Committee for Lingling Li certifies that this is the approved version of the following thesis: Balancing China’s Seasonal Intercity Travel Demand: Alternatives for Freight-Rail Expansion to Reduce Seasonal Passenger-Rail Demand ________________________________ Chairperson Anne Dunning Date approved: November 25, 2013 iii Abstract Since 2010, China’s annual domestic holiday travel for the 20-day season surrounding Spring Festival (a.k.a. Chinese New Year) has exceeded 200 million trips (China Transportation and Communication Yearbook). The demand surges have overwhelmed intercity transportation systems, particularly passenger rail. This transportation problem has emerged due to spatial economic imbalance: workers have had to travel between their homes in rural hinterlands to factory jobs on the industrial coast, which had grown into a migratory population of 261,390,000 by 2010 (National Bureau of Statistics of China). The objectives of this research were: to examine spatial relationships among factories, raw materials, markets, workers, and rail connections; and, to identify how development of China’s freight-rail industry can or will influence the Spring Festival travel season. Spatial analysis using geographic information systems (GIS), statistical hypothesis testing, and economic analysis including location quotients were conducted to examine spatial relationships among markets, factories, raw materials, workers, and rail connections. Potential was explored for developing freight trail to support inland vertical industry and employment that might reduce worker migration and thus reduce the surges of the Spring Festival travel season. It was concluded that research results indicated sixteen inland provinces stood to develop vertical industries and integration. The inland provinces offered resources to support developing six main value-added industries: food processing, fiber development into cloth and textiles, wood and paper products from timber, tobacco products, metals, and machinery. Inland industrialization can offer employment to current migratory workers, thus reducing domestic passenger travel and the volume surges of Spring Festival seasonal demand. As movement of finished goods from hinterlands to the coast replaces movement of workers to coastal factory jobs, freight demand will increase. Increasing freight volumes across the country will produce pressure on the current freight railway network, leading to a need to reverse recent disinvestment by investing in freight infrastructure. iv Table of Contents China’s Changing Regional Development ..................................................................................... 2 Rapid Growth of Urbanization................................................................................................. 2 China’s Regional Industrial Development ............................................................................... 2 Classical Theory and Applicability of Regional Development and Factory Locations ................. 4 Cultural and Population Effect ....................................................................................................... 6 Population Growth and Change ............................................................................................... 6 Changing Travel Demand ........................................................................................................ 6 Intercity travel. ................................................................................................................... 6 Seasonal demand. ............................................................................................................... 7 Reasons for demand growth..................................................................................................... 9 Unbalanced regional economic development. ................................................................... 9 Low cross-price elasticity. ............................................................................................... 12 Cultural significance. ....................................................................................................... 12 Strict household registration system. ............................................................................... 12 Addressing the New Demand ...................................................................................................... 13 China’s Intercity Transportation System ............................................................................... 13 Intercity Passenger Rail during Spring Festival ..................................................................... 15 Challenges in Supply of Passenger Rail ................................................................................ 16 Operational management. ................................................................................................ 16 Transportation infrastructure. .......................................................................................... 17 Experience with Seasonal Demand .............................................................................................. 20 Theoretical Approaches to Temporary Travel Surges and Spikes ......................................... 20 Infrastructure expansion (growth in scope of supply). .................................................... 20 Operational expansion (growth in scale of supply). ........................................................ 21 Industry reform. ............................................................................................................... 21 Public education and cultural shifts (long-term demand reduction). ............................... 23 World Experience with Seasonal Travel and Special Events ................................................ 26 High demand for railway service in India. ....................................................................... 27 Seasonal travel and special events. .................................................................................. 28 v China’s Experience ................................................................................................................ 33 Operational management. ................................................................................................ 33 Government and policies. ................................................................................................ 34 From Moving People to Moving Freight ..................................................................................... 37 Characteristics of the Freight Rail System............................................................................. 37 Comparison of freight rail and passenger rail. ................................................................. 37 Comparison with other freight modes.............................................................................. 37 Components of the freight-rail transportation system. .......................................................... 38 China’s Freight Rail Industry ................................................................................................. 38 Organizations and infrastructure. ..................................................................................... 38 Increase of freight volume and turnover. ......................................................................... 38 Decrease of market share. ................................................................................................ 39 Bulk freight. ..................................................................................................................... 39 Unbalanced spatial distribution of freight flow. .............................................................. 40 Further Exploration ................................................................................................................ 41 Synthesis ...................................................................................................................................... 42 Methodology ................................................................................................................................ 43 Spatial and Quantitative Analysis .......................................................................................... 43 Discussion of Findings ........................................................................................................... 44 Spatial Trends .............................................................................................................................. 45 Relationship between the Current Freight Transport and Regional Economies .................... 45 Transportation of raw goods. ........................................................................................... 45 Freight exchange of railway. ............................................................................................ 46 Co-location strategies of value-added
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