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An Analysis of the New Threat Environment for Satellites

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An Analysis of the New Threat Environment for Satellites An Analysis of the New Threat Environment for Satellites Kalli Haverkamp Space Engineering, master's level (120 credits) 2018 Luleå University of Technology Department of Computer Science, Electrical and Space Engineering CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY Kalli Haverkamp An Analysis of the New Threat Environment for Satellites School of AerospaCe, Transport and ManufaCturing AstronautiCs and SpaCe Engineering MSc SpaCeMaster Program MSC Thesis AcademiC Year: 2017 – 2018 Supervisor: Dr. Jenny Kingston August 2018 CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY Cranfield University AstronautiCs and SpaCe Engineering MSc MSC AcademiC Year 2017 - 2018 Kalli Haverkamp An Analysis of the New Threat Environment for Satellites Supervisor: Dr. Jenny Kingston August 2018 This thesis is submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MSC in AstronautiCs and SpaCe Engineering This project has been funded with support from the European Commission. This CommuniCation reflects the views only of the author, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use whiCh may be made of the information Contained therein. © Cranfield University 2018. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the written permission of the copyright owner. ABSTRACT The threat environment in space has evolved rapidly in recent times. As more and more governments and their people rely on the services that satellites provide, the space environment has become more congested. Militaries have also begun to use the technologies that satellites enable to give them a competitive advantage. These advancements have provided great incentive to governments and other groups to develop weapons that can disable the empowering satellites of other nations and peoples. This has caused the dawning of a new threat environment that spacecraft providers now need to consider when creating their designs. These new threats are in addition to the harsh space natural environment that must already be accommodated, making the design trade space of satellites more complex than it has ever been. In addition to natural threats like radiation and micrometeoroids, as well as non-hostile threats like space debris, the new threats that have come to surface are man-made and malevolent in intent. They include anti-satellite (ASAT) missiles, co-orbital satellites, nuclear weapons, and various hacking techniques. In this thesis each of the listed threats will be considered, including their operating principles, effects to spacecraft, mitigation recommendations, and mission applicability. Design recommendations are provided by mission types based on the range of threats they are susceptible to, the effect and likelihood an attack could have, and overlap in mitigation techniques between threats. This study has shown the importance that resiliency will have in the future for satellites at all levels of operation. Keywords: ASAT, Space Debris and Micrometeoroids, Conventional Ballistic Missile, Co- orbital Satellite, Radiation, Nuclear Detonation, Jamming, Spoofing, Hijacking, Signal Intelligence, Eavesdropping, Resiliency i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are several people I would like to offer sincere thanks to. Without their support the completion of this thesis would not have been possible. First and foremost, I would like to thank my thesis advisor, Dr. Jenny Kingston. Her insight and guidance through the writing process was instrumental. Also, her willingness to accommodate the time difference and hold video conferences was greatly appreciated. Next, I want to thank my LTU thesis advisor Dr. Victoria Barabash. Without her hard work organizing the consortium and teaching lessons in Kiruna, the SpaceMaster program would not be possible. I also extend thanks to all the individuals who had a part in organizing the SpaceMaster program. It has been one of the most meaningful experiences of my life. It granted me the opportunity to learn from gifted professors and experts, travel to stimulating locations, and meet amazing friends from around the globe. In addition, I would like to thank my colleagues at the Boeing Company, Ron Burch, Nathan Mintz, and Hayley McGuire, who were great mentors and teachers on the topics of space threats and resiliency. Their willingness to host all my questions and hold conversations sparked my interest in this topic and provided invaluable guidance. Finally, I would like to thank a few very special people, without whom I would not be here today. I will always be grateful for my family, who has always provided incredible support and guidance. They push me to pursue my dreams and have taught me the value of education. I would like to say a special thanks to my dad who continuously encouraged me to set my goals high and to keep chipping away at them. Lastly, I would like to thank “min sambo” Mike. Without his support, insight, and love throughout this entire process, I never would have finished. I am incredibly appreciative for all that he does and has done for me. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .................................................................................................... i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .............................................................................. ii LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................ v LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................ vii LIST OF EQUATIONS ................................................................................ viii 1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 1 1.1 The Threat Environment ...................................................................... 2 1.2 Aim ....................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Report Outline ...................................................................................... 4 2 The Evolution and Weaponization of the Space Environment ................... 5 2.1 The Importance of Space Based Assets .............................................. 7 2.2 The Historical Development of the New Space Threats ...................... 9 2.2.1 KE-ASAT ..................................................................................... 10 2.2.2 Standard Missile-3 Interceptor .................................................... 13 2.2.3 Iridium 33 – Cosmos 2251 .......................................................... 14 2.2.4 Shiyan-7 ...................................................................................... 15 2.2.5 Kosmos 2499 and Luch .............................................................. 16 2.2.6 Galaxy 15 .................................................................................... 18 2.3 Impact of the Historical Events .......................................................... 18 3 Categorization of the Threat Environment ................................................ 20 3.1 NSTAC Classification ......................................................................... 20 3.2 DoD Classification .............................................................................. 23 3.3 Impact vs. Likelihood Categorization ................................................. 25 3.3.1 Current Spacecraft Threats ......................................................... 27 4 A Study of Satellite Threats ...................................................................... 29 4.1 Space Debris and Micrometeoroids ................................................... 29 4.1.1 Space Debris Threat ................................................................... 30 4.1.2 Micrometeoroid Threat ................................................................ 32 4.1.3 Impact to Spacecraft ................................................................... 33 4.1.4 Mitigation Tools and Techniques ................................................ 37 4.1.5 Mission Considerations ............................................................... 39 4.2 Conventional ASAT Missiles .............................................................. 40 4.2.1 Operating Principles and Sources ............................................... 40 4.2.2 Effect on Spacecraft .................................................................... 42 4.2.3 Mitigation Tools and Techniques ................................................ 43 4.2.4 Mission Considerations ............................................................... 46 4.3 Co-orbital Satellites ............................................................................ 47 4.3.1 Operating Principles and Sources ............................................... 47 4.3.2 Effect on Spacecraft .................................................................... 51 4.3.3 Mitigation Tools and Techniques ................................................ 52 iii 4.3.4 Mission Considerations ............................................................... 54 4.4 Natural Radiation ............................................................................... 55 4.4.1 Types of Radiation ...................................................................... 55 4.4.2 Sources of Natural Radiation ...................................................... 57 4.4.3 Impact to Spacecraft ................................................................... 61 4.4.4 Mitigation Tools and Techniques ................................................ 66 4.4.5 Mission Considerations ..............................................................
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